Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the top short-selling stocks in the market, indicating significant investor sentiment and potential volatility in these companies' stock prices [1][2]. Group 1: Top Short-Selling Ratios - China Resources Beer (80291) and Anta Sports (82020) both have a short-selling ratio of 100.00%, indicating complete short interest [1][2]. - Lenovo Group (80992) has a short-selling ratio of 72.39%, suggesting a notable level of bearish sentiment among investors [1][2]. Group 2: Top Short-Selling Amounts - Alibaba (09988) leads with a short-selling amount of 5.5 billion, followed by Xiaomi (01810) at 3.305 billion and Tencent Holdings (00700) at 2.414 billion [2]. - The significant short-selling amounts for these companies may reflect concerns about their future performance or market conditions [2]. Group 3: Top Short-Selling Deviations - COSCO Shipping International (00517) has the highest deviation at 36.57%, indicating a substantial difference between its current short-selling ratio and its average over the past 30 days [1][2]. - China Resources Beer (80291) follows with a deviation of 32.83%, suggesting heightened short-selling activity compared to its historical average [1][2].

Core Viewpoint - The white liquor market is experiencing a slow recovery in demand as the Mid-Autumn Festival approaches, with expectations of a year-on-year decline in sales during the National Day and Mid-Autumn holiday period by approximately 15% to 20% [1] Industry Summary - The current focus in the white liquor market is on inventory adjustment through bottle opening and sales [1] - The consumption of white liquor in banquet settings and the mass price segment is expected to perform relatively better [1] - The bottom of the industry fundamentals is anticipated to appear in the third quarter of 2025, with the third quarter of this year expected to be the most challenging period for sales, prices, and market confidence [1] - The second half of this year is projected to be the most pressured period for the financial performance of white liquor listed companies, but a gradual recovery trend is expected thereafter, presenting bottom-fishing opportunities in the industry [1] Beer Industry Summary - The beer sector is expected to maintain stable pre-holiday stocking rhythms due to a lower base in the second half of the year [1] - However, increased competition and the impact of alcohol restrictions are anticipated to exert pressure on the financial reports for the third quarter [1]

Core Insights - Qingdao Beer emphasizes a comprehensive quality management approach that integrates technology and consumer experience, redefining what constitutes a good beer [1][2][3] Group 1: Quality Management Innovations - Qingdao Beer has developed a unique "charm perception quality management model" that transitions from basic quality to charm perception quality, addressing consumer needs from basic to potential [1] - The company has successfully localized the production of oxygen-absorbing gaskets, previously reliant on imports, enhancing the freshness and sensory quality of its beer [2] - Qingdao Beer has invested in research and innovation to improve quality, leading to significant advancements in fermentation, flavor control, and sustainable practices, earning four national science and technology progress awards [3] Group 2: Digital Transformation and Traceability - The company has implemented a digital production system that allows for real-time monitoring of over 1,800 quality checkpoints, ensuring transparency and traceability in the production process [4] - Qingdao Beer is enhancing its quality management through a comprehensive digital transformation that spans the entire supply chain, focusing on smart manufacturing and green practices [5] Group 3: Fresh Beer Delivery and Consumer Experience - The introduction of fresh beer products, such as unpasteurized beer, has led to a new market trend, with a focus on rapid delivery and quality management [6] - The company has established a "fresh direct delivery" service, allowing consumers to receive their orders within 30 minutes, enhancing the overall consumer experience [6][7] - Qingdao Beer is expanding its brand presence globally, exporting to over 120 countries and creating immersive consumer experiences through various initiatives [7]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has downgraded Budweiser APAC's earnings and sales forecasts due to challenging market conditions, particularly weak beer demand in China during Q3, affecting its premium and super-premium beer categories [1][2]. Summary by Category Earnings Forecast - Budweiser APAC's earnings forecast for 2025 has been reduced by 14% [1][2]. - The earnings forecasts for 2026 and 2027 have also been lowered by 8% based on the low base from 2025 [1][2]. Sales and Operating Profit - Sales and operating profit forecasts for Budweiser APAC have been adjusted downwards by 7% and 13%, respectively [1][2]. Target Price and Rating - The target price for Budweiser APAC has been decreased from HKD 9.5 to HKD 9.3, while the rating remains "Overweight" [1][2].

Core Viewpoint - Qingdao Beer is leveraging the Mid-Autumn Festival to boost sales with new product offerings that combine quality and trendy designs, appealing to consumer preferences for gift-giving and celebration [1][2][6]. Product Offerings - Qingdao Beer has launched a three-color gift box containing "Classic White Beer," "Osmanthus White Beer," and "Cherry Blossom White Beer," each with unique flavor profiles, which has become popular among consumers [2][4]. - The "Classic 8+2 Gift Box" includes 8 cans of classic beer and 2 cans of white beer, catering to diverse consumer tastes and providing an economical option [6]. Market Performance - The "Classic White Beer" has become the best-selling Chinese white beer globally, winning multiple international awards and being sold in over 40 countries [4]. - Online sales data shows a nearly 100% positive feedback rate for the three-color gift box, indicating strong consumer satisfaction and high repurchase intent [4]. Consumer Trends - The new products are particularly favored by younger consumers and women, with high sales reported in supermarkets as the Mid-Autumn Festival approaches [4][6]. - The brand's marketing strategy includes prominent displays of festive-themed products, enhancing visibility and attracting customers during the holiday season [6]. Brand Positioning - Qingdao Beer is positioned as a national brand that combines traditional brewing techniques with modern trends, aiming to enhance consumer experiences during festive occasions [7].

Core Insights - The report highlights that the US inflation remains stable, with the Dow Jones reaching a high of 46,714 points, marking the 28th record close for the S&P 500 this year [9] - The report notes a continuous inflow of capital from mainland China into Hong Kong stocks, increasing from approximately 1,108.8 billion to 1,152.7 billion [9] - The investment strategy favors technology stocks and leading companies with AI application potential [9] - The report recommends structured products linked to AI indices, balancing yield and growth potential [9] - It suggests increasing investments in investment-grade corporate bonds to replace cash and short-term government bonds [9] Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed at 26,128.20, down 1.35%, while the Hang Seng Technology Index fell by 2.89% [14] - The report indicates that the Chinese economy is showing signs of weakening growth momentum, with GDP expected to decline to around 4.5% in Q3 and further to about 4.3% in the second half of the year [12] - The report mentions a "deposit migration" phenomenon in mainland China, where funds are moving from fixed deposits to equity investment products, with only 11% of the total deposits having migrated so far [12] Company Focus - Qingdao Beer Co. reported a net profit of 3.9 billion RMB for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 7.2%, driven by margin improvements and product upgrades [19] - BYD has adjusted its sales target downwards but anticipates a new growth phase in production and sales in the coming months [12] - The report highlights PACCAR Inc. as benefiting from a new 25% tariff on imported heavy trucks, enhancing its competitive pricing advantage [22] - GlobalFoundries Inc. is expected to benefit from a new regulatory policy encouraging domestic semiconductor production, which may lead to increased local orders and incentives [23]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has downgraded Budweiser APAC's (01876) 2025 earnings forecast by 14% due to ongoing challenging market conditions, particularly in China where beer demand remains weak in Q3 [1] Financial Projections - Sales and operating profit forecasts have been reduced by 7% and 13% respectively, reflecting the impact of weak demand on the company's premium and super-premium beer categories [1] - The earnings forecast for 2026 to 2027 has been adjusted downwards by 8% from the low base of 2025 [1] Target Price and Rating - The target price for Budweiser APAC has been lowered from HKD 9.5 to HKD 9.3, while maintaining an "Overweight" rating [1]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs reports that Budweiser APAC (01876) is expected to release its Q3 2025 earnings on October 30, with anticipated further slowdown in the Chinese market due to luxury consumption policies and the impact of food delivery services on online consumption [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The third quarter in China is expected to see a decline compared to Q2, influenced by anti-luxury policies and significant online consumption drag from food delivery services [1] - Budweiser has high exposure in the on-trade channel, which is expected to be affected by ongoing destocking pressures impacting sales and brand mix [1] - The short-term EBITDA pressure in the Chinese market is anticipated to increase [1] Group 2: Sales and Profitability - Goldman Sachs forecasts weak sales in Q3 2025 for Budweiser APAC in China and South Korea, partially offset by strong momentum in India and favorable average selling prices in South Korea [1] - The Chinese market is facing profit margin pressures due to policy headwinds [1] - The firm updated its foreign exchange impact on sales, predicting a 12.6% decline in organic revenue and a 15.8% drop in normalized EBITDA for Q3 [1] - The net profit for Q3 is expected to be $158 million, down from $201 million in Q3 2024 [1] Group 3: Full Year Outlook - For the full year 2025, Budweiser APAC is expected to see a 2.1% growth in organic EBITDA in East Asia driven by average selling price increases, favorable brand and channel mix, and cost efficiencies [1] - In West Asia, organic EBITDA is projected to decline by 11% year-on-year due to ongoing operational leverage decline and channel mix offsetting cost tailwinds [1]

2025全年展望，该行预计百威亚太在亚太东部在平均销售价格上调、有利的品牌和渠道组合转换以及成 本效益驱动下，有机EBITDA将增长2.1%。而亚太西部由于持续的营运杠杆下降和渠道组合转换抵消成 本顺风，预计有机EBITDA将同比下降11%。 智通财经APP获悉，高盛发布研报称，百威亚太(01876)将于10月30日发布2025年第三季度业绩。该行预 计百威亚太在中国市场第三季相较第二季度将进一步放缓，原因包括反奢华政策和补贴推动的食品外送 服务导致线上消费显著拖累，而百威在餐饮渠道on-trade(现场即时消费或即饮渠道)有较高曝光度。同 时，持续的去库存压力进一步影响销量和品牌组合，并料中国市场的短期EBITDA压力将更大。 高盛预计百威亚太2025年第三季中国和韩国销量疲软，部分被印度的强劲势头、韩国较好的平均销售价 格以及原材料成本顺风所抵消。当中，中国市场受政策逆风影响，利润率压力加剧。该行更新外汇对销 售的影响，预计集团第三季有机收入下降12.6%，Normalized EBITDA下降15.8%。以美元计，第三季度 报告净利润预计为1.58亿美元，相比2024年第三季度的2.01亿美元。 ...

高盛发表报告指，百威亚太将于10月30日发布2025年第三季业绩。该行预计百威亚太在中国市场第三季 相较第二季度将进一步放缓，持续的去库存压力进一步影响销量和品牌组合，并料中国市场的短期 EBITDA压力将更大。该行预计第三季中国和韩国销量疲软，部分被印度的强劲势头、韩国较好的平均 销售价格以及原材料成本顺风所抵消。 展望2025全年，该行预计百威亚太在亚太东部在平均销售价格上调、有利的品牌和渠道组合转换以及成 本效益驱动下，有机EBITDA将增长2.1%。而亚太西部由于持续的营运杠杆下降和渠道组合转换抵消成 本顺风，预计有机EBITDA将按年下降11%。 ...