鉴于全球形势变化，印度将通过能源来源多元化保障本国能源安全。 印度商业和工业部长皮尤什·戈亚尔当地时间2月4日说，鉴于全球形势变化，印度将通过能源来源多元化保障本国能源安全。 美国总统特朗普2日在社交媒体发文称，根据当天与印度总理莫迪达成的一项贸易协议，印度将停止购买俄罗斯石油，美国则 将把对印度商品加征的所谓"对等关税"税率从25%降至18%。他还说，印度将显著增加美国石油的采购量并可能从委内瑞拉 购买石油。 戈亚尔4日就上述贸易协议首次向议会作出说明，并未提及印度将停止从任何特定国家购买石油。据路透社报道，印度炼油厂 也尚未接到停止购买俄罗斯石油的政府指令。 俄罗斯方面3日说，尚未听到印度关于停止采购俄石油的任何表态。俄总统新闻秘书佩斯科夫4日说，印度宣布石油采购将多 元化"并不新鲜"，印度一直从多国购买石油。 分析人士认为，美印基于现实利益达成贸易协议，但作为世界第三大石油消费国和进口国，印度很难完全停止购买俄石油。 来源：新华社 End 欢迎分享给你的朋友！ 出品 | 中国能源报（c ne ne rgy） 编辑丨赵方婷 ▲ 这是2 0 2 5年8月2 1日在印度首都新德里拍摄的街景。新华社记者伍岳摄 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of various energy - chemical products on February 5, 2026, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefin, and polyvinyl chloride, and gives an "oscillating" view for each product [1][2][4][5][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, oil prices rose significantly. WTI March contract rose $1.93 to $65.14/barrel (3.05% increase), Brent April contract rose $2.13 to $69.46/barrel (3.16% increase), and SC2603 rose 15.2 yuan to 473.5 yuan/barrel (3.32% increase). The US - Iran negotiation is facing twists and turns. EIA reported that US crude and distillate inventories decreased while gasoline inventories increased last week. Cold - snap - induced output decline supports oil prices, but geopolitical variables cause fluctuations. It is recommended that investors participate with light positions [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Wednesday, the main contracts of fuel oil (FU2603) and low - sulfur fuel oil (LU2604) rebounded. The supply of both high - and low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to be sufficient, while the bunker fuel加注 activity is expected to increase before the Spring Festival. Affected by geopolitics and crude oil costs, the fundamentals are mixed with long and short factors, and there is pressure in the follow - up. Attention should be paid to oil price fluctuations [2]. - **Asphalt**: On Wednesday, the main asphalt contract (BU2603) rebounded. This week, the social inventory rate increased, the refinery inventory level decreased, and the plant operating rate decreased. In the early and middle of February, the inventory in the north is for downstream stocking, and the inventory in the south has some arbitrage demand. During the Spring Festival, the refinery and social inventories will increase. The asphalt is less volatile than crude oil, and the cracking spread has been repaired. The basis has weakened. Refineries are looking for alternative raw materials, and the production schedule may be adjusted later. Attention should be paid to oil price fluctuations and raw material imports [2][4]. - **Polyester**: TA605, EG2605, and PX 603 all rose on Wednesday. The production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are slightly differentiated and generally weak. Multiple MEG devices have restart, maintenance, and shutdown plans. With the decline of crude oil prices and the implementation of polyester production cuts, there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in the first quarter. Polyester raw material prices are expected to oscillate with costs. Attention should be paid to unexpected device changes, cost - end price fluctuations, and the risk of insufficient demand recovery in late February [4]. - **Rubber**: On Wednesday, the main rubber contracts (RU2605, NR, BR) all rose. As of February 1, China's natural rubber social inventory increased. The natural rubber exports from Cote d'Ivoire in January decreased year - on - year and month - on - month. The rubber fundamentals show increasing supply and weak demand, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly. Attention should be paid to the impact of external macro - factors [5]. - **Methanol**: On Wednesday, the spot prices in different regions and the prices of downstream products are given. The domestic methanol production is expected to decrease slightly in February, and the import volume will decline. The demand from eastern MTO devices will decrease. The decline in Iranian shipments will support the price, but the reduction of MTO device load may put pressure on inventory reduction. The methanol price is expected to oscillate widely at a low level [5]. - **Polyolefin**: On Wednesday, the prices and production profits of polypropylene and polyethylene are provided. The supply is expected to increase slightly. In February, downstream enterprises will enter the holiday, leading to passive inventory increase. After the Spring Festival, the market will start to digest inventory. The fundamentals are not strongly supported in February, and attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation of refineries and society. The polyolefin price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [6]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: On Wednesday, the PVC market prices in East, North, and South China adjusted strongly. In February, the enterprise maintenance is less, and the production will remain high. The real - estate construction is weakening, and the demand for PVC downstream products is limited. The "rush - to - export" demand is generated due to the cancellation of export tax - rebate on April 1. There is an expectation of supply reduction in the future, and the PVC price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [6][7]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy - chemical products on February 5, 2026, including spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, basis change, and the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [8]. 3.3 Market News - The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that as of the week ending January 30, US crude and distillate inventories decreased while gasoline inventories increased due to winter storms. Crude oil production dropped to the lowest level since November 2024, and the crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma decreased by 743,000 barrels [11]. - The Iranian Foreign Minister clarified the official position on the Iran - US talks in Oman, stating that the talks will be held at around 10 a.m. on the 6th in Muscat. Earlier, an Iranian official source said the talks were cancelled due to new US conditions and differences in the negotiation issues [11]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Price**: The report presents the closing price charts of the main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2022 to 2026, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, LLDPE, polypropylene, PVC, methanol, styrene, 20 - number rubber, natural rubber, synthetic rubber, European - line container shipping, p - xylene, and bottle - chip [13][15][17][19][21][23][25][27][28]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: The report shows the basis charts of the main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2022 to 2026, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, p - xylene, synthetic rubber, and bottle - chip [30][33][37][38][40][41]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spread**: The report provides the spread charts of inter - period contracts of various energy - chemical products, such as fuel oil (01 - 05, 05 - 09), asphalt (main and sub - main contracts), European - line container shipping index monthly spread, PTA (01 - 05, 05 - 09), ethylene glycol (01 - 05, 05 - 09), PP (01 - 05, 05 - 09), LLDPE (01 - 05, 05 - 09), and natural rubber (01 - 05, 05 - 09) [43][45][48][51][53][55][57]. - **4.4 Inter - variety Spread**: The report shows the spread and ratio charts of inter - variety of various energy - chemical products, such as crude oil (internal and external markets, B - W), fuel oil (high - low sulfur spread, fuel oil/asphalt ratio), BU/SC ratio, ethylene glycol - PTA spread, PP - LLDPE spread, and natural rubber - 20 - number rubber spread [59][62][64]. - **4.5 Production Profit**: The report presents the production profit and processing fee charts of various energy - chemical products, such as LLDPE, PP, PTA processing fee, and ethylene - based ethylene glycol cash - flow [66][68]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - **Zhong Meiyan**: Deputy Director of Everbright Futures Research Institute, with a master's degree from Shanghai University of Finance and Economics. She has won multiple "Outstanding Analyst" awards and led the energy research team to win many industry service awards. She has over a decade of experience in futures derivatives market research and has served many listed companies [71]. - **Du Bingqin**: Director of Energy and Chemical Research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with a master's degree in Applied Economics from the University of Wisconsin - Madison. She has won multiple industry analyst awards and her team has won industry service awards. She is deeply involved in domestic and foreign energy industry research [72]. - **Di Yilin**: Analyst of natural rubber and polyester at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with a master's degree in finance. She has won multiple analyst awards and her team has won a research team award. She is mainly engaged in the research of related futures varieties [73]. - **Peng Haibo**: Analyst of methanol, propylene, pure benzene, PE, PP, and PVC at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with an engineering master's degree. He has passed the CFA Level III exam and has experience combining financial theory with industrial operations [74].

Group 1 - The U.S. has unexpectedly shifted its oil policy towards Venezuela, moving from a stance of isolation and sanctions to a more tolerant approach [1][3] - U.S. Treasury Secretary's initial strong remarks against China acquiring Venezuelan oil were quickly followed by a White House statement allowing China to continue purchases at U.S.-defined "fair market prices" [3] - The U.S. realized that completely excluding China from Venezuelan oil sales was impractical, as the number of oil tankers leaving Venezuela has significantly decreased since the U.S. took control of its oil exports [3][5] Group 2 - The U.S. proposed a price increase for Venezuelan oil from approximately $31 per barrel to $45, claiming the previous pricing was "unfair dumping," which effectively shifts pricing power away from Venezuela [5] - The U.S. is prioritizing the sale of Venezuelan oil to itself, limiting the volume available to China, which indicates a desire to control the supply chain while forcing China to pay higher prices [5][7] - China's imports from Venezuela constitute only 0.07% of its total oil imports, allowing China to easily source oil from other regions like Russia and the Middle East if necessary [5][7] Group 3 - China has stated it will only engage with the legitimate government of Venezuela and opposes unilateral sanctions and extraterritorial jurisdiction [7] - The U.S. strategy to control Venezuelan oil to suppress China has underestimated the complexities of the market, particularly regarding heavy crude oil processing capabilities [7][8] - The inconsistency in U.S. policy has led to dissatisfaction among American companies, including Chevron, highlighting the internal conflicts regarding U.S. actions in Venezuela [7][8]

Report Investment Rating No information provided Core Viewpoints - Due to India's continued reduction in Russian oil purchases and the widening discount of Urals crude, Russia's fiscal revenue is expected to be significantly impacted, which may prompt Russia to make compromises on the Russia-Ukraine issue in the future [3] - The biggest downside risk to oil prices this year comes from the transformation of Russian oil from sanctioned oil to compliant oil after changes in sanctions [3] Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data - On February 5, a survey showed that due to the disruption of Venezuela's oil exports and other OPEC members implementing a three - month freeze on production increases, OPEC's crude oil production decreased last month. In January, OPEC's daily oil production was 28.83 million barrels, a decrease of 230,000 barrels per day from the previous month. About one - third of the decline was caused by Venezuela, and other members also slightly cut production [2] - On February 4, Russia's government oil revenue in January fell to its lowest in more than five years. Weak global oil prices, a wider discount on Russian oil, and a stronger ruble dragged down the fiscal situation. In January, oil - related taxes were halved year - on - year to 281.7 billion rubles ($3.7 billion), and the combined oil and gas revenue also dropped 50% to 393.3 billion rubles. The combined oil and gas accounts for about a quarter of Russia's fiscal revenue [2] - In recent months, India has cut Russian oil purchases, especially after sanctions on major Russian producers. Although the discounts are still attractive, at least three refineries are seeking government clarification, and two have suspended purchases. India's oil minister expects imports from Russia to continue to decline, and refineries want to increase supplies from Canada and the US [2] Investment Logic - India's continued reduction in Russian oil purchases and the widening discount of Urals crude are expected to significantly impact Russia's fiscal revenue, which may prompt Russia to make compromises on the Russia - Ukraine issue. The biggest downside risk to oil prices this year is the transformation of Russian oil from sanctioned oil to compliant oil after changes in sanctions [3] Strategy - Oil prices will fluctuate in a short - term range and a short - position allocation is recommended in the medium term [4] Risk - Downside risks: Relaxation of Russian oil sanctions, macro black - swan events [4] - Upside risks: Tighter supply of sanctioned oil (Russia, Iran, Venezuela), large - scale supply disruptions due to Middle - East conflicts [4]

来源：华夏时报 国内成品油价格开启2026年第二轮上涨。 2月3日下午，国家发改委发布公告称，近期国际市场油价波动上升，根据2月3日的前10个工作日平均价 格与上次调价前10个工作日平均价格对比情况，按照现行成品油价格机制，自2月3日24时起，国内汽、 柴油价格每吨分别上涨205元和195元。 对于下一轮国内成品油调价预期，金联创成品油分析师王延婷告诉《华夏时报》记者，新一轮计价周期 首个工作日，变化率幅度将在-0.4%，对应汽柴油下调幅度在20元/吨附近。若后期地缘局势趋于缓和， 国际原油价格存下行空间，新一轮零售价下调概率较大。 成品油二连涨 新一轮油价调整窗口，国内成品油价格迎来二连涨。 隆众资讯成品油分析师徐雯雯告诉记者，本轮调价后，全国大多数地区车柴价格6.6—6.8元/升，92号汽 油零售限价在6.9—7.0元/升。 地缘冲突扰动 近期两周左右时间，原油价格持续走高，以美原油为例，最低处于55美元/桶，最高涨到66美元/桶，上 涨幅度超过10美元/桶；布伦特原油期货价格更是自2025年9月份以来首次突破70美元/桶。 国际原油价格上涨的主要原因之一，便是美国对伊朗部署军队和航母等，加大了地区的紧张 ...

燃料油日报 | 2026-02-05 站在品种自身基本面的角度来看，高硫燃料油当前基本面偏强，亚太地区现货边际收紧，市场结构较为坚挺。且 由于高硫燃料油是伊朗的主要出口产品之一，因此对于伊朗局势的风险敞口较大。此外，在委内瑞拉原油供应减 少后，国内沥青炼厂开始寻找替代原料，伊朗原油和燃料油是潜在选项，高硫燃料油需求存在一定增量预期。低 硫燃料油当前基本面矛盾不明显，市场压力有限，因此主要跟随原油端波动。 策略 高硫方面：中性，关注伊朗局势走向 低硫方面：中性，关注伊朗局势走向 跨品种：无 跨期：逢低多FU2603/2605价差（正套） 期现：无 期权：无 风险 宏观风险、关税风险、制裁风险、原油价格大幅波动等、发电端需求超预期、欧佩克增产幅度不及预期、船燃需 求超预期 伊朗局势仍不明朗，炼厂端需求增量可期 市场分析 上期所燃料油期货主力合约日盘收涨3.98%，报2797元/吨；INE低硫燃料油期货主力合约日盘收涨3.39%，报3268 元/吨。 近期能源板块波动受到伊朗局势影响较大。周初伊朗与美国计划开展谈判的消息一度导致油价大幅回撤。昨日局 势再度出现波折，伊朗无人机被美军击落，市场担忧情绪再度升温，原油地 ...

Morning session notice 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 重要事项: 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料，格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 格林大华期货研究院所有 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 研究员： 吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

记者丨曾静娇 周蕊 编辑丨江佩霞 2月5日上午，黄金白银盘中跳水，截至北京时间10:20左右， 现货白银失守83美元/盎司，日内 重挫逾7%； 现货黄金跌近1.2%， 现报4909.67美元/盎司， 日内最低跌至4893美元， 早盘 一 度重上5000美元 。 A股跌幅扩大，钧达股份跌停，光伏股全线下跌 日韩科技电子股大跌，软银跌4%，SK海力士跌近5% 21君荐读 据新华财经报道，特朗普在一场采访中表示， 他毫无怀疑利率 "很快就会下调"。 当被追问为 何如此笃定，他回答道："我只是觉得利率会下调。我的意思是，利率本就应该更低。" 另据央视新闻报道， 伊朗和美国4日分别证实，定于6日在阿曼首都马斯喀特举行核问题谈 判。此前，美国政府一度正式告知伊朗，拒绝伊方3日提出的更改会谈地点与形式的要求。伊 朗指责美方泄露取消谈判的消息表明其缺乏诚意。而为避免美伊谈判破裂，中东地区至少有九 个国家通过最高级别渠道联系白宫，强烈敦促美国不要取消会谈。 纽约商品交易所委员会主席威廉·普普拉分析指出， 白银波动被放大，主要是投机资金主导。 白银很容易吸引短线资金，尤其是在行情后段。当这些资金开始撤离时，价格波动往往非常剧 烈 ...

特朗普发帖称，印度总理莫迪在与特朗普的通话中，同意停止购买俄罗斯石油，并大幅增加从美国以及可能从委内瑞拉购买的石油（另有消息称莫迪同意 增加对美投资500亿美元），"这将有助于结束目前正在进行的乌克兰战争，每周都有成千上万人在这场战争里丧生。" 而作为回报，美国将把对印度的关税从目前的25%降低到18%，印度也将对等降低对美关税并清除非关税贸易壁垒，同时还会购买超过5000亿美元的美国 商品，包括能源、农产品和技术等。 自2022年战争爆发以来，印度一直都是俄罗斯石油的最大客户之一，这倒与政治没什么关系，纯粹是商业因素，俄罗斯石油价格太便宜了，尤其是最近这 段时间，因为乌克兰频繁打击俄罗斯炼油厂等设施，滞留在海上的俄罗斯石油数量不断增加，印度抓住有利时机大量吃进。 截至撰文时，我都没有看到印度政府发布公开声明表示不会再购买俄罗斯石油，而在俄罗斯国内，则依然抱有希望，诸如俄罗斯政府下属金融大学和俄国 家能源安全基金专家伊戈尔·尤什科夫就告诉俄罗斯新闻网站NEWS.ru，印度不会弃购俄罗斯石油，因为俄罗斯石油对印度而言是"市场上最具成本效益的 选择"，换句话说，就是俄罗斯石油最便宜。 评论：暂且不谈印度近期与欧盟 ...

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2026年02月05日 (原油) 夜间交易时段国际油价上涨。伊朗方面此前传出谈判取消的消息，随后伊朗外交部长阿拉格齐澄清 指出，伊朗与美国将于6日上午10时左右在阿曼首都马斯喀特举行会谈。EIA数据显示，受冬季风暴 影响，上周美国原油库存超预期大幅下降，产量亦降至2024年11月以来最低水平。目前美伊谈判前 景仍存在较多不确定性,但整体冲突局势仍属可控,预计对原油价格的影响更多是阶段性与间歇性 的，难以形成趋势性转变。全球石油市场累积的压力依然显著。在多空因素交织的背景下，预计油 价将延续波动加剧的态势。 【责金属】 隔夜贵金属震荡,波动依然较大。美国经济数据喜忧参半,1月ADP就业人数增加2.2万人低于预期 的4.8万人，不过ISM非制造业PM153.8与此前公布的制造业PMI均体现经济韧性，市场关注的非农就 业将推迟到下周发布。短期资金博弈激烈，贵金属进入高位盘整阶段，暂时观望等待波动率下降。 国投期货研究院 【铜】 隔夜铜价高位震荡，沪铜减仓，市场关注潜在储备与春节前后国内供求变动。倾向正向价差强化能 形成天然仓单储备。更关注跨期反套。 ...