Investment Rating - The industry maintains a "Buy" rating [4] Core Views - The gold market is experiencing disruptions due to tariffs and shadow Fed policies, potentially opening a breakthrough window for gold prices [1] - The long-term bullish trend for gold remains intact amid concerns over global monetary credit, public debt, and geopolitical tensions [1] - The copper processing fee is recovering amid expectations of reduced smelting, while aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate due to domestic and international favorable policies [2] - Lithium prices are rebounding strongly due to ongoing supply disruptions, while silicon prices are expected to remain volatile without significant improvements in the fundamentals [2] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold has been included in the category of imported goods subject to tariffs, leading to a temporary price surge above $3,500 per ounce on COMEX [1] - The U.S. government is expected to clarify that imported gold bars should not be subject to tariffs, which may stabilize the market [1] - The price difference between COMEX gold and London gold has narrowed to $4.9 per ounce as of August 8 [1] Industrial Metals - **Copper**: Global copper inventories increased by 35,400 tons, with significant production increases in China [2] - **Aluminum**: The theoretical operating capacity of China's electrolytic aluminum industry reached 44.05 million tons, with mixed production trends in the aluminum rod industry [2] Energy Metals - **Lithium**: Prices for battery-grade lithium carbonate rose by 8.9% to 75,000 yuan per ton, driven by supply disruptions and increased production [2] - **Silicon**: The average cost of metal silicon is 10,028.9 yuan per ton, with a slight increase in production but overall supply exceeding demand [2] Key Stocks - Recommended stocks include: - Xinyi Silver Tin - Shengda Resources - Zijin Mining - Shandong Gold - Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining - Yintai Gold - Zhaojin Mining [1][2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the metals and new materials industry, indicating a "Buy" rating for the sector [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in metal prices, with the non-ferrous metals index rising by 5.78% over the past week, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 4.55 percentage points [4][5]. - Precious metals, particularly gold, are expected to continue their upward trend due to increased central bank purchases and a shift in market sentiment towards safety over yield [4][21]. - The report emphasizes the importance of supply-demand dynamics in the copper and aluminum markets, with expectations of price increases driven by stable demand and constrained supply [4][47]. Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 2.11%, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.25% [5]. - The non-ferrous metals index has increased by 32.00% year-to-date, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 27.68 percentage points [8]. - Key segments such as precious metals and copper saw significant weekly gains, with precious metals up 8.04% and copper up 6.71% [9]. Price Changes - Industrial metals and precious metals experienced price increases, with LME copper, aluminum, lead, and zinc prices rising by 1.37%, 1.68%, 1.83%, and 3.67% respectively [14]. - The report notes a decrease in lithium prices, with battery-grade lithium carbonate down by 9.87% [14]. Inventory Changes - Copper inventories at LME increased by 9.95% week-on-week, while COMEX inventories rose by 1.72% [17]. - Aluminum social inventory remained stable at 56.4 thousand tons, with a slight increase in total aluminum inventory [47]. Key Company Valuations - The report provides valuations for key companies in the sector, with Zijin Mining priced at 20.54 CNY per share and a projected PE ratio of 26 for 2023 [18]. - Other notable companies include Shandong Gold at 32.88 CNY per share with a PE ratio of 63, and Huayou Cobalt at 43.81 CNY per share with a PE ratio of 22 [18]. Precious Metals Analysis - The report indicates that the SPRD+iShares gold ETF holdings increased by 0.7% to 1412 tons, reflecting growing investor confidence [21]. - The Chinese central bank's continued gold purchases are expected to support gold prices, with the current official reserve standing at 7396 tons [21]. Copper Market Insights - The report notes that the current copper spot price is 37.98 USD per dry ton, with domestic social inventory increasing to 132,000 tons [32]. - The operating rates for electrolytic copper rods and wire and cable production are reported at 68.9% and 69.9% respectively, indicating stable demand [32]. Aluminum Market Insights - The report highlights that the average price of A00 aluminum in Shanghai is 20,650 CNY per ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.63% [47]. - The operating rate for aluminum processing enterprises has risen to 58.70%, indicating a recovery in demand [47]. Steel Market Insights - The report indicates a slight decrease in rebar prices, with the current price at 3330 CNY per ton, while hot-rolled coil prices increased to 3440 CNY per ton [72].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [7] Core Views - Precious Metals: China has increased its gold reserves for the ninth consecutive month, with a total of 73.96 million ounces as of the end of July, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 60,000 ounces. The market is influenced by expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the second half of the year [3][12] - Industrial Metals: The seasonal peak is approaching, and attention should be paid to the pace of inventory reduction. Copper prices are supported by a tight supply-demand balance, while aluminum prices may experience fluctuations due to seasonal factors [4][14] - New Energy Metals: The mining operation at Jiangxiawo has been confirmed to be suspended with no plans for resumption in the short term. The lithium market is expected to remain strong due to resilient demand despite supply disruptions [19] - Other Minor Metals: The prices of rare earths are showing slight weakness, but there is limited downside potential in the short term due to existing supply gaps [20] Summary by Sections 1. Investment Strategy - Precious Metals: Continuous increase in gold reserves by China and rising expectations for a Fed rate cut [11] - Industrial Metals: Seasonal peak approaching, focus on inventory reduction [14] - New Energy Metals: Suspension of mining operations at Jiangxiawo [19] - Other Minor Metals: Rare earth prices showing slight weakness [20] 2. Weekly Review - The non-ferrous index rose by 5.8%, with gold showing the largest increase among sub-sectors [24][28] - Notable stock performances include Kexin New Energy (+53.05%) and West Materials (-12.66%) [26] 3. Major Events - Macro: Trump criticizes Powell for delayed rate cuts; China's July PPI decreased by 3.6% [39] - Industry: China continues to increase gold reserves; Jiangxiawo mining operation confirmed to be suspended [44] 4. Non-Ferrous Metal Prices and Inventory - Industrial Metals: Copper and aluminum prices remain stable with copper inventory increasing [47] - Precious Metals: Gold and silver prices are rising due to a weakening dollar and U.S. Treasury yields [66]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the industry, highlighting several key companies as recommended investments [5]. Core Views - The report emphasizes a positive outlook for industrial metal prices driven by macroeconomic factors, including rising expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and resilient domestic export data [2][4]. - The report identifies specific companies within the sector that are expected to perform well, including Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and China Nonferrous Mining [2][5]. Summary by Sections Industrial Metals - The report notes that the price of industrial metals such as aluminum, copper, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin has shown positive movements, with LME prices for aluminum increasing by 1.69% and copper by 1.40% during the week [1][10]. - The SMM copper concentrate import index increased by $4.03 per ton, indicating a recovery in processing costs [2]. - Domestic aluminum production remains stable, but demand from end-use sectors like home appliances and construction is weak, leading to an increase in social inventory to 564,000 tons [2][21]. Energy Metals - The report highlights the impact of the Democratic Republic of Congo's mining ban on cobalt prices, which are expected to rise significantly [3]. - Lithium prices are anticipated to increase due to recovering demand from downstream battery manufacturers, with market activity showing signs of improvement [3]. - Nickel prices are also expected to remain strong due to tight supply and rising demand for replenishment [3]. Precious Metals - The report indicates that gold prices have surpassed $3,500 per ounce, driven by increased central bank purchases and rising inflation expectations [4]. - Silver prices are also on the rise, supported by its industrial applications and recent price surges [4]. - Key companies in the precious metals sector recommended for investment include Shandong Gold and Zhongjin Gold [4][5]. Company Earnings Forecasts and Valuations - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for several companies, with Zijin Mining expected to achieve an EPS of 1.21 yuan in 2024, and Luoyang Molybdenum projected at 0.63 yuan [5]. - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for these companies indicate favorable valuations, with Zijin Mining at 17 times and Luoyang Molybdenum at 15 times for 2024 [5].

Group 1 - The A-share market has shown significant activity, with the Shanghai Composite Index stabilizing above 3600 points and a year-to-date increase of 8.45% as of August 8, with an average daily trading volume exceeding 1.4 trillion yuan [1][2] - The current market rally is driven by both liquidity and positive policy expectations, with a notable increase in investor participation and financing balances since late June [2][3] - Analysts suggest a dual strategy of investing in both technology growth and high-dividend assets, emphasizing the importance of long-term patience to avoid frequent trading due to short-term profit chasing [1][4] Group 2 - The market is believed to have substantial upside potential, with the current valuation levels being lower compared to previous instances when the index surpassed 3600 points, indicating a higher concentration of emerging industries, particularly hard technology [3][4] - Investment strategies for the second half of the year should focus on stability first, followed by aggressive positioning as uncertainties diminish, with key areas of interest including industrial metals, lithium batteries, innovative pharmaceuticals, and AI-related sectors [3][4] - The shift in investment strategy from short-term trading to a more patient, long-term holding approach is recommended, with an emphasis on diversifying investments across multiple promising sectors and maintaining a balanced portfolio [5][6]

Group 1 - The total salary scale of CFOs in A-share listed companies reached 4.27 billion yuan in 2024, with an average annual salary of 814,800 yuan [1] - The highest annual salary for a CFO in the industrial metals sector was 4.45 million yuan paid to Zijin Mining's CFO, while the lowest was 169,000 yuan paid to Silver Industry's CFO [1] - Eleven listed companies paid their CFOs over one million yuan in annual salary, including Haomei New Materials and Huayu Mining [1] Group 2 - Xinjiang Zhonghe's CFO earned 2.36 million yuan, which is above the industry average, but the company's net profit decreased by 22.94% year-on-year in 2024 [2] - The sales gross margin of Xinjiang Zhonghe has been declining, with figures of 17%, 15.46%, and 10.85% from 2022 to 2024 [2] - Kingtian's CFO received a significant salary increase to 1.21 million yuan, but the company's net profit fell by 13.7% despite a 12.36% increase in revenue [2] Group 3 - The CFO of Asia Pacific Technology received a salary of 1.15 million yuan, while the company's return on equity (ROE) and various operational indicators have been declining [2] - The accounts receivable turnover ratio for Asia Pacific Technology decreased from 4.25 to 3.47 from 2022 to 2024, indicating weakening receivables management [2] - The weighted average ROE for Asia Pacific Technology also showed a downward trend, with figures of 12.77%, 10.06%, and 8.24% from 2022 to 2024 [2]

Group 1 - The total salary scale of CFOs in A-share listed companies reached 4.27 billion yuan in 2024, with an average annual salary of 814,800 yuan [1] - The highest annual salary for a CFO in the industrial metals sector was 4.45 million yuan for Zijin Mining's CFO, while the lowest was 169,000 yuan for Silver Industry's CFO [1] - Eleven listed companies paid their CFOs over one million yuan in annual salary, including Haomei New Materials and Huayu Mining [1] Group 2 - Xinjiang Zhonghe's CFO earned 2.36 million yuan, which is above the industry average, but the company's net profit decreased by 22.94% year-on-year in 2024 [2] - The sales gross margin of Xinjiang Zhonghe has been declining, with figures of 17%, 15.46%, and 10.85% from 2022 to 2024 [2] - Kingda's CFO received a significant salary increase to 1.21 million yuan, but the company's net profit fell by 13.7% despite a 12.36% increase in revenue [2] Group 3 - The CFO of Asia Pacific Technology received a salary of 1.15 million yuan, while the company's return on equity (ROE) and various operational indicators have been declining [2] - The accounts receivable turnover ratio for Asia Pacific Technology decreased from 4.25 to 3.47 from 2022 to 2024, indicating weakening receivables management [2] - The weighted average ROE for Asia Pacific Technology also showed a downward trend, with figures of 12.77%, 10.06%, and 8.24% from 2022 to 2024 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The report from China Merchants Securities emphasizes the need for industry allocation in the CSI A500 index to focus on "de-involution" clearance, sectors with high mid-year performance growth, and low valuations [1] Group 1: Performance Improvement Areas - Expected areas of mid-year performance improvement include: 1) High-growth TMT sectors such as optical optoelectronics, consumer electronics, and communication equipment, benefiting from AI innovation and accelerated substitution [1] 2) Midstream manufacturing sectors with global competitiveness, including automotive parts, automation equipment, and electronics, showing signs of marginal order recovery [1] 3) Consumer services, particularly home appliances and household goods, experiencing demand improvement due to policy support [1] 4) Cyclical industries like precious metals, industrial metals, and electricity, with potential profit recovery [1] Group 2: Market Conditions - Current prices for resource products such as steel and coal have bottomed out and are recovering, while the photovoltaic industry chain is also seeing marginal price recovery [1] - The de-involution policy is driving capacity clearance in certain industries, making performance elasticity worth noting [1] Group 3: CSI A500 Index Composition - The CSI A500 Innovation Index is compiled using an internationally recognized "industry balance" method, selecting 500 securities with large market capitalization and good liquidity across all secondary and 97% of tertiary industries [1] - The index includes nearly all leading companies in tertiary industries, achieving a "gathering of leaders" [1] - The index compilation incorporates mechanisms like mutual connectivity and ESG screening, aligning with the preferences of domestic and international institutional investors, which is beneficial for attracting long-term capital to core A-share assets [1] - Interested investors may consider the CSI A500 ETF (159338) [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The report expresses a long-term positive outlook on precious metals, driven by fluctuations in U.S. employment data and the weakening global position of the U.S. dollar, which is expected to support gold prices [5] - Industrial metal prices are currently declining, but significant infrastructure projects in China are anticipated to boost overall demand and metal prices in the medium term [5] - The report highlights the mixed performance of minor metals, with tungsten prices increasing due to rising demand in manufacturing [5] - Energy metals, particularly lithium, are seeing price increases, indicating potential growth in demand for these materials [5] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Data Review 1.1 Precious Metals - The report notes a 0.85% decline in Shanghai gold prices, with U.S. non-farm payrolls adding only 73,000 jobs in July, which is significantly below market expectations [5][42] 1.2 Industrial Metals - Prices for copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, tin, and nickel have decreased by 1.9%, 1.2%, 0.9%, 3.0%, 3.3%, and 3.7% respectively [5][28] 1.3 Minor Metals - Prices for praseodymium-neodymium oxides showed mixed results, while tungsten prices have increased due to a recovery in manufacturing demand [5][32] 1.4 Energy Metals - Lithium concentrate prices have risen, with cobalt products also showing upward trends, indicating a growing demand for energy metals [5][35] 2. Market Data - The report indicates a 0.94% decline in the Shanghai Composite Index, with the non-ferrous metals sector down 4.62% [36] 3. Key Events Review - The report highlights the significant downward revision of U.S. employment data for May and June, which has contributed to market volatility [42]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry, focusing on energy metals, minor metals, and rare earth investment opportunities [5][7]. Core Insights - The non-ferrous metals industry index increased by 1.78% over the past two weeks, outperforming the CSI 300 index and ranking 11th among 31 sectors [2][13]. - Energy metals and minor metals showed significant gains, with increases of 6.32% and 6.17% respectively, while precious metals experienced a notable decline of 4.31% [2][19]. - The report highlights the impact of geopolitical tensions and tariff policies on market sentiment, suggesting a continuation of weak fluctuations in the short term [5]. Summary by Sections Market Review (2025.7.21-2025.8.01) - The non-ferrous metals industry index rose by 1.78%, outperforming the CSI 300 index [2][13]. - Energy metals and minor metals led the gains, while precious metals saw a decline [2][19]. Metal Prices - COMEX gold closed at $3,416.00 per ounce, up 1.80% over two weeks; COMEX silver fell to $37.11 per ounce, down 3.44% [3][20]. - Black tungsten concentrate prices rose by 7.78% to 194,000 CNY per ton, while LME tin prices decreased by 0.42% to $33,215 per ton [3][20]. Important Events - The U.S. imposed a 50% tariff on imported copper semi-finished products, leading to a significant drop in copper prices [4][29]. Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to focus on energy metals, minor metals, and rare earths due to potential opportunities and policy shifts [5][7].