投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 有色金属 姓名：龙奥明 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 有色金属 | 日报 2025 年 8 月 13 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 铜价维持强势 核心观点 沪铜 宝城期货投资咨询部 今日铜价偏强震荡，持仓量小幅上升。宏观层面，美国 7 月 CPI 低于预期，核心 CPI 略高于预期，降息预期升温，美元指数弱势运 行，利好铜价；中美贸易关系持续改善，国内市场氛围较好。内外 宏观向好，铜价或维持强势运行，关注 8 万关口压力。 沪铝 今日沪铝震荡运行，持仓量持续上升。宏观层面，中美贸易改 善，美联储降息预期升温，内外宏观向好，利好铝价。产业层面，下 游淡季，中下游持续累库，利空铝价。宏观推动 ...

编辑/melody | 代碼 | 名稱 | 最新價 | 漲跌幅 ◆ | 成交額 | 總市值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 00358 | 江西銅業股份 | 18.410 | +5.38% | 5.59億 | 637.49億 | | 03993 | 洛陽組業 | 10.490 | +4.17% | 5.41億 | 2244.26億 | | 03330 | 鹽礦貢金 | 11.640 | +3.56% | 4764.36 | 149.8億 | | 00486 | 俄語 | 4.730 | +3.05% | 435.54 | 718.63億 | | 02899 | 瑞德维斯 | 23.520 | +2.80% | 6.82億 | 6251.05信 | | 01378 | 中國宏橋 | 22.840 | +2.70% | 4.55億 | 2168.53億 | | 02600 | 中國鋁業 | 7.000 | +2.64% | 2.69億 | 1200.89億 | | 00098 | ■發鋁業 | 8.640 | +1.65% | 21.32萬 | 36.34億 | ...

有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/08/13 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2025/08/06 105 108 72543 20346 -79.58 430.61 46.0 57.0 -62.62 156125 10925 2025/08/07 105 156 72543 20145 -79.96 359.16 46.0 57.0 -65.63 156000 11125 2025/08/08 115 216 81933 21272 -15.62 225.75 46.0 57.0 -69.55 155850 11075 2025/08/11 150 495 81933 23275 -117.15 335.57 45.0 55.0 -83.25 155700 11975 2025/08/12 205 515 81933 26296 84.82 412.33 47.0 54.0 -87.14 155000 11600 变化 55 20 0 30 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Reports Copper - Copper pricing has returned to macro trading. With the US economy weakening, copper prices face pressure on the upside under weak economic expectations. However, based on the Sam Rule, the market has not entered a recession narrative, and the downside space is also difficult to open. In the medium - to - long - term, supply - demand contradictions provide bottom support. In the short term, copper prices are expected to fluctuate within a range, with the main contract referring to 78,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the US economic fundamentals data in August [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, short - term supply disturbances and long - term overcapacity will continue to compete. It is expected that the main contract price will fluctuate widely between 3,000 - 3,400 yuan/ton this week, and it is recommended to short at high prices in the medium term. - For aluminum, under the pressure of inventory accumulation expectations, weak demand, and macro disturbances, the short - term price is expected to remain under pressure at high levels. The main contract price this week is expected to be between 20,000 - 21,000 yuan/ton. Follow up on inventory changes and marginal demand changes [4]. Aluminum Alloy - The aluminum - aluminum alloy price difference strategy is the main approach. The market is expected to fluctuate widely, with the main contract running between 19,200 - 20,200 yuan/ton. Focus on upstream scrap aluminum supply and import changes [6][7]. Zinc - The basic situation of loose supply and weak demand provides insufficient support for continuous upward movement of zinc prices, but low inventory levels provide price support. In the short term, zinc prices are expected to fluctuate, with the main contract referring to 22,000 - 23,000 yuan/ton [11]. Tin - The US inflation slowdown and stronger interest - rate cut expectations drive tin prices to be relatively strong. If the supply recovers smoothly, a short - at - high strategy is recommended; if the supply recovery is less than expected, tin prices are expected to continue to oscillate at high levels [14]. Nickel - The mid - term supply is expected to remain loose, restricting the upside space for prices. In the short term, the market is expected to adjust within a range, with the main contract referring to 120,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to changes in macro expectations [16]. Stainless Steel - The sentiment has improved, and cost support has strengthened, but the fundamentals are still restricted by weak spot demand. In the short term, the market is expected to oscillate strongly, with the main contract running between 13,000 - 13,500 yuan/ton. Follow up on policy trends and supply - demand rhythms [18]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to fluctuate widely in a relatively strong range, with the main contract referring to 80,000 - 90,000 yuan/ton. One can appropriately pay attention to the positive spread opportunities between near - and far - term contracts [21]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price remained at 79,150 yuan/ton, SMM Guangdong 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 0.02% to 78,935 yuan/ton, and SMM wet - process copper price decreased by 0.03% to 78,975 yuan/ton. - The import profit and loss was - 75 yuan/ton, an increase of 24.95 yuan/ton compared to the previous value [1]. Fundamental Data - In July, electrolytic copper production was 113.49 million tons, an increase of 3.94 million tons compared to the previous month; electrolytic copper imports were 25.31 million tons, an increase of 4.74 million tons compared to the previous month. - The domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory increased by 9.80 million tons to 61.96 million tons [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 0.05% to 20,640 yuan/ton, and the Yangtze River A00 aluminum price increased by 0.10% to 20,650 yuan/ton. - The import profit and loss was - 1,363 yuan/ton, an increase of 182.9 yuan/ton compared to the previous value [4]. Fundamental Data - In July, alumina production was 765.02 million tons, a 5.40% increase compared to the previous month; electrolytic aluminum production was 372.14 million tons, a 3.11% increase compared to the previous month [4]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 prices in various regions remained unchanged. - The 2511 - 2512 monthly spread decreased by 5 yuan/ton to 10 yuan/ton [6]. Fundamental Data - In June, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 62.50 million tons, a 1.63% increase compared to the previous month; the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 25.50 million tons, a 2.30% decrease compared to the previous month [6]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price decreased by 0.13% to 22,500 yuan/ton. - The import profit and loss was - 1,807 yuan/ton, an increase of 117.55 yuan/ton compared to the previous value [11]. Fundamental Data - In July, refined zinc production was 60.28 million tons, a 3.03% increase compared to the previous month; in June, refined zinc imports were 3.61 million tons, a 34.97% increase compared to the previous month [11]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price increased by 0.97% to 270,600 yuan/ton, and the LME 0 - 3 premium increased by 31.44% to - 47.99 US dollars/ton. - The import profit and loss was - 15,720.30 yuan/ton, a 5.17% increase compared to the previous value [14]. Fundamental Data - In June, tin ore imports were 11,911 tons, an 11.44% decrease compared to the previous month; SMM refined tin production was 13,810 tons, a 6.94% decrease compared to the previous month [14]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price increased by 0.53% to 123,500 yuan/ton, and the 1 Jinchuan nickel price increased by 0.48% to 124,550 yuan/ton. - The futures import profit and loss was - 1,538 yuan/ton, a 2.29% decrease compared to the previous value [16]. Supply, Demand, and Inventory - China's refined nickel production was 31,800 tons, a 10.04% decrease compared to the previous month; refined nickel imports were 19,157 tons, a 116.90% increase compared to the previous month [16]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) increased by 0.38% to 13,250 yuan/ton. - The 2509 - 2510 monthly spread increased by 5 yuan/ton to - 75 yuan/ton [18]. Fundamental Data - China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude - steel production (43 companies) was 171.33 million tons, a 3.83% decrease compared to the previous month; stainless - steel imports were 10.95 million tons, a 12.48% decrease compared to the previous month [18]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price increased by 4.70% to 78,000 yuan/ton, and SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price increased by 4.84% to 75,800 yuan/ton. - The 2509 - 2511 monthly spread decreased by 120 yuan/ton to - 440 yuan/ton [21]. Fundamental Data - In July, lithium carbonate production was 81,530 tons, a 4.41% increase compared to the previous month; lithium carbonate demand was 96,275 tons, a 2.62% increase compared to the previous month [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the overall industry investment rating. However, for each metal, the following outlooks are provided: - Copper: Oscillating [6] - Alumina: High - volatility and wide - range oscillation in the short term [8] - Aluminum: Range - bound oscillation in the short term [10] - Aluminum Alloy: Range - bound oscillation in the short term, with potential for spread recovery later [12] - Zinc: Oscillating in the short term, with a potential decline in the medium - to - long term [14] - Lead: Oscillating [16] - Nickel: Wide - range oscillation in the short term, hold short positions in the medium - to - long term [21] - Stainless Steel: Range - bound oscillation in the short term [23] - Tin: Oscillating, with potential for increased volatility in August [25] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The weak US dollar continues to support non - ferrous metals, but the weakening demand also needs attention. In the short - to - medium term, the weak US dollar supports prices, but the supply - demand situation is gradually loosening, and the risk of weakening demand is increasing, which exerts negative pressure on base metal prices. In the long term, the expectation of potential incremental stimulus policies in China and the supply disturbances of copper, aluminum, and tin still support base metal prices. It is recommended to short copper and zinc on rallies [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情观点 - **Copper**: Sino - US tariff suspension is extended, and copper prices are oscillating at a high level. The supply constraint remains, but the demand is marginally weakening. The follow - up focus is on the tariff implementation [6][7]. - **Alumina**: Shanxi Province adjusts the registration authority of some mineral species, and the alumina futures price rises significantly. In the short term, the futures price is dominated by anti - involution sentiment and warehouse receipt issues, with high volatility. The fundamental situation is relatively weak [8]. - **Aluminum**: Attention should be paid to the consumption quality, and aluminum prices continue to rise. The short - term supply is stable, the demand is in the off - season, and the inventory is accumulating. The short - term price is expected to oscillate [10]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The cost support is strong, and the futures price is oscillating at a high level. The short - term supply - demand situation is weak, and the price is expected to oscillate within a range [12]. - **Zinc**: The price of the black series rebounds again, and zinc prices are oscillating at a high level. The short - term supply is loosening, the demand is in the off - season, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term and decline in the medium - to - long term [14]. - **Lead**: The cost still provides support, and lead prices are oscillating. The supply is expected to increase slightly this week, and the demand is slightly affected by the off - season. The price is expected to oscillate [16]. - **Nickel**: The market sentiment is fluctuating, and nickel prices are oscillating widely. The market sentiment dominates the futures price, and the fundamental situation is marginally weakening. It is recommended to hold short positions in the medium - to - long term [21]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of nickel iron continues to rise, and the stainless - steel futures price goes up. The cost has increased recently, and the follow - up focus is on the demand during the peak season and inventory changes [23]. - **Tin**: The raw material supply is still tight, and tin prices are oscillating at a high level. The supply is tight, but the demand is marginally weakening in the second half of the year. The price is expected to oscillate, with potential for increased volatility in August [24][25]. 3.2行情监测 The report only lists the names of various metals in this section, such as copper, alumina, aluminum, etc., but does not provide specific monitoring content.

（文章来源：证券日报） 证券日报网讯 8月12日晚间，株冶集团发布公告称，公司拟改聘天职国际会计师事务所（特殊普通合 伙）担任2025年度财务审计和内部控制审计机构。 ...

2024年1至12月份，赣锋锂业的营业收入构成为：有色金属冶炼及压延加工业占比63.56%，锂电池和电 芯及其直接材料占比31.19%，其他占比5.25%。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 赣锋锂业（SZ 002460，收盘价：39.45元）8月12日晚间发布公告称，公司第六届第四次董事会会议于 2025年8月12日以现场和通讯表决相结合的方式召开。会议审议了《关于公司与LAR共同整合合资公司 并为LAR提供财务资助的议案》等文件。 ...

有色金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 有色金属 | 日报 2025 年 8 月 12 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 有色维持偏强震荡 核心观点 沪铜 今日铜价小幅震荡上行，持仓量也小幅上升，主力期价站上 7.9 万关口。宏观层面，内外宏观氛围较好，有利于铜价上行。产业淡 季，库存小幅上升，9-10 月差持续走弱。宏观氛围较好的情况下， 铜价或维持强势运行。 沪铝 今日沪铝震荡上行，持仓量小幅上升，主力期价站上 2.07 万关 口。宏观层面，国内氛围回暖，利好铝价。产业层面，下游淡季，电 解铝持续累库。宏观利好，产业利空，铝价或偏强震荡。 有色金属 | ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（有⾊每⽇报告） 2025-08-12 交易逻辑：有色交易逻辑如下，7月中国进出口贸易数据超预期； 美国7月非农新增就业数据大幅不及预期，5/6月美国就业数据超预期 向下大修，美国7月制造业和非制造业PMI均回落且不及预期，美国衰 退风险在增加；8月欧洲投资者信心指数明显回落，整体来看，美联 储降息预期压制美元指数，这在一定程度上抵消了衰退预期的负面影 响。供需面来看，基本金属供需逐步季节性趋松，国内库存逐步季节 性回升。中短期来看，供需逐步趋松，需求走弱风险在加大，这对基 本金属价格有负面压力，逢高沽空铜锌，长期，国内潜在增量刺激政 策预期仍在，并且铜铝锡供应扰动问题仍在，供需仍有趋紧预期， 这对基本金属价格有支撑。 铜观点：海外衰退⻛险抬升，铜价表现承压。 氧化铝观点：仓单延续增加，氧化铝震荡承压。 铝观点：关注消费情况，铝价延续回升。 铝合⾦观点：成本⽀撑较强，盘⾯⾼位震荡。 锌观点：⿊⾊系价格再度反弹，锌价⾼位震荡。 铅观点：成本仍有⽀撑，铅价震荡运⾏。 镍观点：市场情绪反复，镍价宽幅震荡。 不锈钢观点：镍铁价格持续回升，不锈钢盘⾯上⾏。 锡 ...

有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/08/12 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2025/08/05 150 301 72543 18767 -172.87 266.63 46.0 56.0 -67.32 153850 12000 2025/08/06 105 108 72543 20346 -79.58 430.61 46.0 57.0 -62.62 156125 10925 2025/08/07 105 156 72543 20145 -79.96 359.16 46.0 57.0 -65.63 156000 11125 2025/08/08 115 216 81933 21272 -15.62 225.75 46.0 57.0 -69.55 155850 11075 2025/08/11 150 495 81933 23275 -117.15 335.57 45.0 55.0 -83.25 155700 11975 变化 35 279 0 ...