1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report Copper - Overnight, both domestic and international copper prices rose and then fell, with the import loss of domestic refined copper spot narrowing. - US economic data shows mixed signals: the January ISM services PMI was 53.8, in line with December and the highest since October 2024, but the new orders index slowed; the January ADP new jobs were only 22,000, far below the expected 45,000, indicating weakening labor - market momentum. - Inventories across LME, Comex, and SHFE increased. - After digesting the impact of precious - metal adjustments, copper prices rebounded due to news. However, the copper market still faces weak spot fundamentals, rising inventories, and a demand vacuum around the Spring Festival. Prices may fluctuate around the Spring Festival, so caution is advised when chasing highs. But the rigid constraints on the copper - mine end and the certainty of long - term demand mean that any significant decline will attract long - term allocation funds and industrial buyers, laying a solid foundation for the medium - to - long - term rise of copper prices [1]. Aluminum - Overnight, alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all trended weakly. - Recently, alumina maintenance in various regions has increased, and supply disruptions have led to a narrow - range recovery. As the downstream stocking nears the end and logistics stagnates, alumina inventories are gradually accumulating and will decline as market sentiment fades. - The domestic proportion of aluminum water has decreased. High prices and repeated environmental protection controls in the Central Plains have led downstream to generally reduce or cancel pre - holiday stocking. Attention should be paid to the development of the US - Iran situation and whether downstream stocking sentiment improves after the price correction [1][2]. Nickel - Overnight, LME nickel and Shanghai nickel both declined. LME inventory increased, while SHFE warehouse receipts decreased, and the premium remained negative. - In terms of fundamentals, the prices of nickel ore and nickel iron have strengthened, possibly due to concerns about supply shortages, and the marginal cost support has continued to rise. - Affected by the Spring Festival in February, stainless - steel weekly inventories have increased, but there is much maintenance on the supply side. In the new - energy sector, the MHP price is firm, providing strong cost support for nickel sulfate, but spot procurement and sales are relatively sluggish, and the output of ternary materials is also expected to decline. - Overall, although short - term demand has weakened, cost support remains strong, and the market sentiment has improved. With many disturbances from Indonesian news, attention should be paid to the opportunity of lightly testing long positions near the cost line [2]. 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring Copper - Market prices: The price of flat - copper increased by 3,075 yuan/ton, the price of 1 bright scrap copper in Guangdong rose by 1,000 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference in Guangdong increased by 2,620 yuan/ton. - Inventory: LME inventory remained unchanged, SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 751 tons, and the total SHFE inventory increased by 7,067 tons on a weekly basis, and the social inventory remained unchanged. - Other indicators: The LME 0 - 3 premium decreased by 9.3 US dollars/ton, and the active - contract import profit and loss changed from a loss of 2,952.1 yuan/ton to a profit of 337.9 yuan/ton [3]. Lead - Market prices: The average price of 1 lead remained unchanged, and the price of some recycled lead products decreased. - Inventory: LME inventory remained unchanged, SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 174 tons, and the weekly inventory increased by 1,233 tons. - Premium: The 3 - cash premium decreased, and the active - contract import profit decreased [3]. Aluminum - Market prices: The prices of aluminum in Wuxi and Nanhai increased, the spot premium increased by 10 yuan/ton, and the price of some aluminum - related products remained unchanged or increased slightly. - Inventory: LME inventory remained unchanged, SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 423 tons, the total SHFE inventory increased by 19,718 tons on a weekly basis, the electrolytic - aluminum social inventory increased by 34,000 tons, and the alumina social inventory increased by 10,000 tons. - Premium: The 3 - cash premium decreased, and the active - contract import loss decreased [4]. Nickel - Market prices: The price of Jinchuan nickel increased by 2,550 yuan/ton, and the prices of some nickel - related products remained unchanged or decreased slightly. - Inventory: LME inventory remained unchanged, SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 108 tons, the weekly SHFE nickel inventory increased by 4,602 tons, the stainless - steel warehouse receipts decreased by 253 tons, and the nickel social inventory increased by 2,784 tons. - Premium: The 3 - cash premium decreased, and the active - contract import loss decreased [4]. Zinc - Market prices: The main - contract settlement price decreased by 0.3%, and the prices of most zinc - related products decreased. - Inventory: The weekly SHFE inventory increased by 793 tons, LME inventory remained unchanged, and the weekly social inventory increased by 3,800 tons. - Other indicators: The LME 0 - 3 premium decreased by 1.75 US dollars/ton, and the active - contract import loss changed from a loss of 2,859 yuan/ton to break - even [6]. Tin - Market prices: The main - contract settlement price increased by 5.2%, the SMM spot price increased by 13,150 yuan/ton, and the prices of tin concentrates decreased significantly. - Inventory: The weekly SHFE inventory increased by 748 tons, and LME inventory remained unchanged. - Other indicators: The LME 0 - 3 premium increased by 58.96 US dollars/ton, and the active - contract import loss changed from a loss of 33,775 yuan/ton to break - even [6]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [8][9][10][12]. - **SHFE Near - Far - Month Spread**: Charts display the historical trends of the spread between the first and second contracts for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2021 - 2026 [14][17][18][19]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts present the historical trends of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [20][22][24][25]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [26][28][30][31]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts display the historical trends of social inventories for copper (including bonded areas), aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2026 [32][34][36][37]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts show the historical trends of copper - concentrate index, rough - copper processing fee, aluminum - smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc - smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2026 [39][41][43][44]. 3.3 Team Introduction - **Zhan Dapeng**: A science master, currently the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior precious - metal researcher, and a gold intermediate investment analyst. He has over a decade of commodity - research experience, serves many leading spot enterprises, and has published dozens of professional articles. His team has won the Best Metal Industry Futures Research Team Award from Futures Daily & Securities Times for four consecutive sessions [46]. - **Wang Heng**: A finance master from the University of Adelaide, Australia, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute focusing on aluminum and silicon. He has won relevant industry awards and provides in - depth research on the new - energy industry chain and hedging accounting [46]. - **Zhu Xi**: A science master from the University of Warwick, UK, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute concentrating on lithium and nickel. She focuses on the integration of non - ferrous metals and new energy, serves many leading new - energy enterprises, and has written many in - depth reports [47].

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co., Ltd. experienced a 5.09% drop in stock price, closing at 7.27 yuan per share, with a trading volume of 2.169 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 2.63%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 97.487 billion yuan [1] - The company, established on November 12, 1996, and listed on November 20, 1996, is primarily engaged in copper mining, smelting, and processing, with its main revenue sources being copper products (83.78%), gold and other by-products (13.58%), chemical and other products (2.18%), and others (0.46%) [1] Group 2 - Among the top ten circulating shareholders of Tongling Nonferrous, E Fund's Hu Shen 300 ETF (510310) reduced its holdings by 3.0215 million shares in the third quarter, now holding 94.4753 million shares, which accounts for 0.85% of the circulating shares, resulting in an estimated floating loss of approximately 36.8454 million yuan [2] - The E Fund Hu Shen 300 ETF was established on March 6, 2013, with a current scale of 300.22 billion yuan, showing a year-to-date return of 1.59% (ranking 4353 out of 5566) and a one-year return of 26.33% (ranking 2766 out of 4285), with a cumulative return since inception of 142.12% [2] Group 3 - The fund managers of E Fund Hu Shen 300 ETF are Yu Haiyan and Pang Yaping, with Yu having a tenure of 15 years and 62 days, managing assets totaling 433.297 billion yuan, achieving a best return of 174.06% and a worst return of -78.9% during his tenure [3] - Pang has a tenure of 7 years and 112 days, managing assets of 368.472 billion yuan, with a best return of 114.63% and a worst return of -37.67% during his tenure [3]

有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2026/02/05 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2026/01/29 -350 6364 225937 151628 1825.50 401.68 23.0 23.0 -93.76 176075 43600 2026/01/30 -325 6505 233004 156851 593.62 -291.04 27.0 28.0 -89.88 174975 41800 2026/02/02 -300 5491 233004 158527 -731.31 344.73 39.0 45.0 -59.17 174675 37875 2026/02/03 -290 6127 233004 159021 -650.94 351.21 36.0 43.0 -69.40 176125 37075 2026/02/04 -275 7997 233004 159772 -1050.86 216.31 36.0 43.0 -81.84 ...

Copper - Copper prices experienced a pullback after a rise, with domestic refined copper maintaining a reduced import loss [3] - The US ISM services PMI for January was 53.8, matching December's level and the highest since October 2024, indicating better-than-expected performance, although the new orders index showed a slowdown [3] - US ADP added 22,000 jobs in January, significantly below the expected 45,000, suggesting weakening momentum in the labor market [3] - LME copper inventory increased by 2,525 tons to 178,650 tons, while Comex inventory rose by 1,716 tons to 529,968 tons [3] - SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased by 751 tons to 159,772 tons [3] - The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association suggested enhancing the copper resource reserve system, including expanding the national copper strategic reserve [3] - Despite a rebound in copper prices, the market faces weak fundamentals, accumulating inventory, and a demand vacuum around the Spring Festival, indicating potential price fluctuations [3] - The rigid constraints on copper mines and certainty in long-term demand suggest that any significant price drop could attract long-term investment and industrial buying [3] Nickel & Stainless Steel - LME nickel fell by 0.37% to $17,330 per ton, while SHFE nickel dropped by 0.25% to 135,600 yuan per ton [14] - LME nickel inventory increased by 786 tons to 286,314 tons, while SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 108 tons to 48,072 tons [14] - Nickel ore and nickel pig iron prices showed strong transactions, raising concerns about tight resource supply [14] - Stainless steel inventory accumulated due to the upcoming Spring Festival, although supply-side repairs are prevalent [14][15] - Market sentiment is improving, but caution is advised regarding potential emotional resonance in the market [15] Aluminum & Alumina - Alumina prices showed a slight decline, with AO2605 settling at 2,788 yuan per ton, down 0.85% [16] - SHFE aluminum also experienced a decline, with AL2603 closing at 23,690 yuan per ton, down 0.92% [16] - Aluminum alloy prices decreased, with AD2603 at 22,215 yuan per ton, down 0.58% [16] - SMM alumina prices fell to 2,619 yuan per ton, while aluminum ingot spot discounts narrowed to 210 yuan per ton [16] - Increased repairs in various regions have led to supply disruptions, causing alumina to enter a narrow recovery phase [16] - Downstream inventory accumulation and logistics stagnation are expected to lead to a gradual decline in alumina prices [16] Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon - Industrial silicon prices showed a slight decline, with the main contract at 8,850 yuan per ton, down 0.17% [17] - Polysilicon prices increased, with the main contract at 51,195 yuan per ton, up 4.25% [17] - The supply of silicon ore is shrinking as companies enter winter maintenance, impacting overall supply [17] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology reiterated anti-monopoly discussions, with new orders in the silicon wafer market largely stagnant [17] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate futures rose by 1.32% to 147,220 yuan per ton [18] - Average prices for battery-grade lithium carbonate fell by 500 yuan to 153,000 yuan per ton, while industrial-grade prices also decreased by 500 yuan to 149,500 yuan per ton [18] - Weekly production of lithium decreased by 648 tons to 21,569 tons, with lithium spodumene production down by 670 tons [18] - The market sentiment is improving, but caution is warranted due to recent price declines and significant inventory levels [18]

Core Viewpoint - The recent political change, specifically the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the Federal Reserve Chairman by President Trump, has led to a significant and rapid decline in precious metal prices, with silver dropping over 36% and gold falling by up to 12% [1][8]. Market Reaction - The market's reaction was swift and severe, with platinum and palladium also experiencing declines of approximately 17% and 15% respectively. This level of drop is unprecedented since 1980, marking a historical moment in abnormal trading [1]. - The market categorized Warsh as a "hawk," anticipating tighter monetary policies, which would strengthen the dollar and negatively impact precious metals [1][8]. Market Vulnerability - The fragility of the market is evident, as asset prices often follow a "boom-bust" cycle. A small trigger can lead to widespread panic, especially in leveraged financial derivatives like gold futures [2][4]. - The risk can be analyzed in three layers: highly financialized gold (futures and leveraged products), investment-grade bullion (less volatile), and jewelry (least affected) [4]. Technical Market Analysis - Silver has entered a technical bear market, having dropped over 20% from its peak, while gold is close to this threshold [6]. - The market's emotional response to news can lead to irrational selling, highlighting the importance of monitoring trading volumes and support levels for future actions [4][12]. Broader Implications - The nomination of Warsh has implications beyond the U.S., affecting global currency flows and asset allocation. His hawkish stance could challenge the prevailing logic of currency depreciation that has supported rising gold and silver prices [8][9]. - The interplay of speculative, industrial, and emotional capital in the metals market can lead to structural vulnerabilities, especially during external shocks [9]. Investment Perspective - Gold should not be viewed merely as a profit-making tool but as a means of value preservation and risk aversion. Its true value is realized during geopolitical risks or currency depreciation expectations [9]. - Investors are advised to remain calm and avoid impulsive actions, particularly in high-leverage products, and to wait for clearer market signals before making decisions [12].

Group 1 - The core project of China Aluminum's Qinghai branch is a 100,000-ton electrolytic aluminum green electricity direct connection project, which is one of the first seven pilot projects for green electricity direct connection in Qinghai Province [2] - The project is equipped with 400,000 kilowatts of wind power, providing direct electricity supply to the electrolytic aluminum production line, creating an integrated system of "wind-electricity-aluminum" [2] - This initiative aims to achieve seamless integration of green wind power with the electrolytic aluminum production line [2]

证券日报网2月4日讯 ，西部矿业在接受调研者提问时表示，公司冶炼业务主要涵盖铜、铅、锌三大品 种。2024年已完成一轮产能扩建，铜冶炼产能由20万吨/年提升至35万吨/年，铅、锌冶炼产能均由10万 吨/年提升至20万吨/年。目前冶炼板块暂无新增产能或产品种类的计划，后续将重点围绕提质增效与绿 色高质量发展开展工作。 （文章来源：证券日报） ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that the company's aluminum products are primarily based on aluminum liquid, with a significant focus on this segment in their sales strategy [2] - The company's sales distribution for electrolytic aluminum is approximately 90% aluminum liquid and 10% aluminum ingots, indicating a strong preference for aluminum liquid in their product offerings [2]

Core Insights - China Copper Corporation is set to optimize its copper, lead, and zinc mining and smelting costs by over 10% by 2025, contributing more than 1 billion yuan in profits and exceeding 210 billion yuan in sales revenue, marking seven consecutive increases and maintaining total profits above 10 billion yuan for five consecutive years [1][2] Group 1: Cost Management and Efficiency - The company implements a "cost control" philosophy and integrates meticulous management throughout its operations, achieving significant cost reductions [2] - In 2025, the company expects a 3% year-on-year decrease in its "four expenses," with financial expenses dropping by 23%, achieving the best comprehensive financing cost in history [2] - The establishment of a collaborative "34435" system by its subsidiary, Chihong Zn & Ge, supports closed-loop management of the value chain and continuous cash flow for profit growth [2] Group 2: Performance Metrics and Rankings - China Copper has improved its core performance metrics, with its copper mining ranking advancing by 10 places, stabilizing in the top third of the industry, and copper smelting ranking improving by 6 places, entering the top quarter [1] - The company’s lead and zinc mining and smelting rankings have also improved, with mining ranking advancing by 4 places and smelting ranking by 7 places, both within the top half of the industry [1] - The company's operations in Peru have made significant progress in cost reduction and efficiency, ranking among the top 30 globally for cost performance [1]

证券日报网讯2月4日，焦作万方（000612）在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，截至2026年1月30日， 公司股东总户数为79165户。 ...