Group 1 - Wenzhou's Lucheng District has focused on a "project-oriented" approach, achieving a goal of "expansion, quality improvement, and efficiency enhancement" in its investment promotion efforts [1] - As of now, 11 new industrial projects with over 100 million yuan and 2 single manufacturing projects exceeding 1 billion yuan have been established [1] - The district has attracted actual foreign investment of 6,331 million USD, achieving a completion rate of 154.41%, ranking first in the city [1] Group 2 - The district has targeted key development areas such as artificial intelligence, digital economy, productive services, and new productivity [2] - A total of over 60 projects have been evaluated this year, with more than 100 project information collected [2] - 26 projects have been signed at the municipal level this year, with a total planned investment of 13.43 billion yuan [2]

Core Viewpoint - Recent initiatives in Guangzhou's Haizhu and Huangpu districts focus on the integration of manufacturing and service industries, aiming to drive a profound transformation in urban development and enhance competitiveness through a "dual integration" approach [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Initiatives - Haizhu District has introduced a comprehensive policy package to support urban industrial development, including financial backing for service-oriented manufacturing new business models [1]. - Huangpu District has launched eight key actions to empower the entire lifecycle of manufacturing, emphasizing the integration of research and design with production [1]. Group 2: Industry Transformation - The shift in urban development in China is moving from large-scale expansion to improving existing resources, with Guangzhou leveraging its dual advantages in industry and services [1]. - Traditional manufacturing faces challenges such as rising costs and technological pressures, while the service sector, despite its scale, often remains at a low value chain level, necessitating deeper integration to enhance competitiveness [1][2]. Group 3: New Production Models - The "digital technology + lightweight manufacturing" model in Haizhu exemplifies how digital economy leaders can empower traditional industries, enabling small workshops to integrate into collaborative digital production environments [2]. - Huangpu's initiatives address structural bottlenecks in manufacturing by providing high-value services throughout the manufacturing lifecycle, fostering new business models like market-oriented R&D organizations [2]. Group 4: Green Development - The integration of industries is paving the way for greener urban development, as seen in Fuzhou's Longwen District, which has established an industrial internet platform to connect numerous enterprises and promote smart, eco-friendly practices [3]. - The emergence of "lightweight manufacturing" serves as an upgrade to high-energy, high-emission industries, balancing industrial growth with ecological sustainability [3]. Group 5: Future Competitiveness - Overcoming the dual challenges of service industries lacking clients and manufacturing sectors lacking interest is crucial for future urban competitiveness [3]. - The seamless flow and mutual nourishment between manufacturing and services are expected to create a more efficient, vibrant, and sustainable urban industrial landscape [3].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The focus is on the service consumption sector in China, particularly in comparison to developed countries like the US, Japan, and South Korea. The current service consumption in China is relatively low, even when GDP per capita reaches approximately $13,000, indicating significant room for growth in service consumption [1][2][11]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Drivers of Service Consumption Growth**: - Three main drivers identified: urbanization, aging population, and increased government spending on social welfare as GDP per capita exceeds $10,000, known as the Wagner's Law effect [1][4][17]. - Urbanization leads to increased demand for urban public services and lifestyle services [4][12]. - The aging population significantly boosts demand for healthcare and elderly care services [14][17]. - Government investment in social welfare is expected to rise, enhancing consumer spending [15][17]. - **Technological Gaps**: - There exists a technological gap between China and the US in productive services, particularly in information technology and software transmission. China needs to enhance its capabilities in these areas to close the gap and improve productivity, which in turn can lead to wage growth and service sector development [5][19]. - **Employment and Quality of Jobs**: - The rapid urbanization has not been matched by a corresponding increase in high-quality jobs in the service sector, leading to a situation where many workers are forced into low-quality service jobs, exacerbating the issue of "involution" in the service industry [6][7][24]. - **Price Dynamics**: - Service price growth in China has been lower than that of goods, indicating a broader low-price issue that extends beyond manufacturing to the service sector. This necessitates a focus on improving the quality of service supply to stimulate consumer willingness to pay [3][8][9]. - **Comparison with the US**: - The US has seen a significant increase in service sector contribution to GDP, reaching 76% by 2009, while China remains at a lower stage of development. The US has a more integrated productive service sector that supports various industries, while China's service sector is still developing [16][22]. Additional Important Insights - **Future Focus Areas**: - Over the next five years, China is expected to prioritize the development of both productive and lifestyle services, with an emphasis on technological advancements and improved income distribution mechanisms to enhance wages in the service sector [24][25]. - **Potential Growth Areas**: - Specific sectors identified for future growth include information technology, scientific research, wholesale and retail, and health and social work, which show strong demand elasticity with rising income levels [25][26]. - **Challenges in Service Sector**: - The service sector faces challenges such as insufficient high-quality job creation and the need for better integration of productive services with manufacturing to enhance overall economic growth [6][27]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the current state and future potential of the service consumption sector in China, along with the challenges it faces in comparison to developed economies.

Core Viewpoint - The Hainan Provincial Government has issued a three-year action plan (2025-2027) aimed at establishing a modern industrial system with distinctive advantages, targeting a GDP contribution of 70% from four leading industries by 2027 [1] Group 1: Economic Development Goals - By 2027, the contribution of four leading industries to GDP is expected to reach approximately 70% [1] - The construction of an international tourism consumption center is advancing, with continuous release of tourism consumption potential [1] Group 2: Service and Manufacturing Integration - The integration of productive services and advanced manufacturing is accelerating, while the life service industry is optimizing towards high quality and diversification [1] - The value added of modern services is projected to approach 30% of GDP [1] Group 3: Innovation and R&D Investment - There is a deep integration of technological innovation and industrial innovation, with a target R&D expenditure intensity of 1.8% by 2027 [1] - The value added of high-tech industries is expected to exceed 17% of GDP by 2027 [1] Group 4: Agricultural Development - A collaborative development pattern is forming in tropical characteristic high-efficiency agriculture, with an annual growth rate of over 5% in the value added of the entire industrial chain of leading agricultural industries [1]

Group 1: Overall Economic Growth - In the first half of the year, Beijing saw the establishment of 176,800 new entities, a year-on-year increase of 17.64%, marking the highest level in four years [1] - The growth is driven by the productive service industry and digital economy, with a focus on high value-added, digital, and service-oriented industrial structure [1] Group 2: Digital Economy - The digital economy and core industries saw 10,900 new entities established, a year-on-year increase of 53.92% [2] - Digital technology application accounted for 62.51% of new entities, with software development and IT services growing by 190.72% and 40.59% respectively, contributing 81.3% to the city's digital economy growth [2] - The new entities in the digital economy in the plain new towns reached over 4,700, with a growth rate of 78.03%, representing 43.45% of the total new entities in the digital economy [2] Group 3: Elderly Care Industry - The elderly care industry established 81,400 new entities, a year-on-year increase of 22.5%, surpassing the city's average growth rate by 4.86 percentage points [3] - Smart elderly care services saw a remarkable growth rate of 96.08%, with 53,700 new entities in this category [3] - The plain new towns accounted for 41.86% of the total new entities in the elderly care industry, with a growth rate of 46.43% [3] Group 4: Productive Service Industry - The productive service industry established 106,100 new entities, with a year-on-year growth of 18.49%, leading among all sectors [3] - Key areas such as R&D design, business services, and information services accounted for over 80% of the new entities, with growth rates exceeding 30% in several sub-sectors [3] - The plain new towns emerged as a new growth pole for the productive service industry, with 43,500 new entities established, a year-on-year increase of 41.94% [3] Group 5: Cultural and Related Industries - The cultural and related industries saw 20,400 new entities established, a year-on-year increase of 12.77%, continuing to rise from the first quarter [4] - Content creation and production entities accounted for 69.71% of the total, with the cultural investment and operation sector experiencing the fastest growth at 103.56% [4] - The plain new towns recorded a growth rate of 35.37% in cultural industries, while the central urban areas accounted for 44.03% of the new entities in this sector [4]

编者按7月30日召开的中共中央政治局会议研判了当前经济形势，部署了下半年经济工作。上半年中国经济顶住压力，实现了5.3%的平稳增长。面对外部 环境复杂多变、内部风险挑战增多的局面，下半年经济形势和政策走向备受瞩目。对此，围绕财政收入、固定资产投资、产业经济、对外开放、创新动 能、地区经济六个维度，中国经济时报邀请国家高端智库等权威机构专家，研判上半年经济形势，展望下半年政策走向。 智观年中经济形势 核心观点： 下一步，要进一步做好"两重"建设和"两新"工作，用好新型政策性金融工具，更好发挥政府投资带动作用，加快推进传统产业改造升级，加 快培育和壮大新质生产力，聚焦提高投资效益精准发力，多方面拓展有效投资空间，充分激发民间投资活力，持续发挥投资对优化供给结构的关键作用。 ■杨萍 杜月 今年以来，各地区各部门深入贯彻落实党中央、国务院决策部署，统筹用好中央预算内投资、超长期特别国债、地方政府专项债等政策工具，加快推 进"两重"建设和"两新"工作，聚焦关键领域和薄弱环节积极扩大有效投资，推动固定资产投资平稳增长。从全年看，外部环境仍然复杂严峻、具有不确定 性。下一步，要深入贯彻落实4月25日中共中央政治局会议精神， ...

Group 1 - The core issue of "involution" stems from an imbalance in the manufacturing and service industries, with manufacturing employment exceeding actual demand while service employment remains insufficient [2][9] - In 2023, manufacturing employment was significantly above potential levels (+0.2 billion), while service employment showed a notable shortfall (-0.4 billion) [9][106] - Manufacturing investment remains high despite declining revenues, indicating an "involution" phenomenon, while service investment is approximately 1.5 trillion yuan below potential levels [18][106] Group 2 - There is a substantial gap in consumer spending, with a shortfall of about 6,400 billion yuan in goods consumption and nearly 30,000 billion yuan in service consumption [3][27] - In 2024, the per capita gap in service consumption is projected to be 2,093 yuan, highlighting a significant unmet demand in the service sector [27][106] Group 3 - Long-term solutions to "involution" involve shifting focus from manufacturing supply to service supply, as global experiences indicate a transition in consumer demand from goods to services at certain GDP and urbanization levels [4][107] - The aging population and smaller household sizes are expected to further drive demand for service consumption, particularly in areas like healthcare and leisure [45][52] Group 4 - Current policies are actively promoting service consumption, investment, and exports, which are seen as the new "three drivers" of economic growth [6][80] - Measures such as extending statutory holidays and encouraging private investment in the service sector are expected to enhance service demand and investment [91][109] - The recovery of inbound tourism is anticipated to significantly contribute to service exports, with potential growth in travel exports projected at 60.5% year-on-year for 2024 [97][109]

Core Viewpoint - The economic competition among major Chinese cities, particularly Qingdao, Ningbo, and Tianjin, is intensifying as Qingdao aims to improve its GDP ranking by 2025, with a focus on industrial and service sector growth [1][6][10]. Economic Performance - Qingdao's GDP for the first half of 2025 reached 858.73 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 5.3% [1]. - Ningbo's GDP was 886.1 billion yuan with a growth rate of 5.1%, while Tianjin's GDP was 870.66 billion yuan, also growing at 5.3% [2][6]. - The gap between Qingdao and Tianjin has narrowed to 11.9 billion yuan, a reduction of approximately 10 billion yuan compared to the previous year [6]. Strategic Planning - Qingdao is designated as a "strong leader" in Shandong's three-year action plan aimed at achieving high-quality, low-carbon development by 2025 [6][10]. - The plan emphasizes the need for Qingdao to enhance its economic position among major cities in China [6]. Industrial Development - Qingdao's manufacturing sector is showing signs of recovery, with a significant increase in industrial output, particularly in advanced manufacturing [12][14]. - The city aims for manufacturing value-added to account for approximately 29% of its GDP by 2025 [12]. - In the first half of 2025, Qingdao's industrial output grew by 7.7%, outperforming both Ningbo and Tianjin [14]. Service Sector Growth - The service sector in Qingdao accounted for 64.6% of the GDP, contributing 62.7% to economic growth in the first half of 2025 [17]. - The city is focusing on developing productive service industries, which are crucial for supporting manufacturing and enhancing overall economic efficiency [19][20]. Competitive Landscape - Historically, Qingdao has faced challenges in maintaining its economic ranking, having been surpassed by cities like Chengdu and Wuhan since 2011 [6][7]. - Experts suggest that Qingdao should benchmark against Ningbo, particularly in terms of business environment and private sector activity [10].

Core Insights - In the first half of the year, Beijing saw a significant increase in newly established institutions, reaching 176,800, a year-on-year growth of 17.64%, marking a four-year high [1] - The growth is driven by the production service industry and digital economy, with cultural and elderly care industries also showing steady growth, contributing to the high-quality development of the capital's economy [1] Digital Economy and Core Industries - The number of newly established institutions in the digital economy and core industries reached 10,900, with a year-on-year increase of 53.92% [2] - The digital technology application sector accounted for 62.51%, with software development and IT services growing by 190.72% and 40.59% respectively, contributing 81.3% to the city's digital economy growth [2] - The new institutions in internet platforms, wholesale and retail, and digital content and media totaled over 2,500, with a growth of 48.17% [2] - The suburban areas (including Fangshan, Shunyi, Changping, Daxing, and Beijing Economic-Technological Development Area) saw 4,700 new institutions, a growth rate of 78.03%, representing 43.45% of the total new institutions in the digital economy [2] Elderly Care Industry - The elderly care industry established 81,400 new institutions, with a year-on-year growth of 22.5%, surpassing the city's average growth rate by 4.86 percentage points [3] - Institutions focused on elderly technology and smart elderly care services accounted for 66.02% of the total, with smart elderly care services growing by 96.08% [3] - Suburban areas contributed 34,100 new institutions, making up 41.86% of the total, with a growth rate of 46.43% [3] Production Service Industry - The production service industry saw 106,100 new institutions, with a year-on-year growth of 18.49%, leading among all sectors [4] - Key areas such as research and design, business services, and information services accounted for over 80% of the new institutions, with several sub-sectors growing over 30% [4] - Suburban areas emerged as a new growth point with 43,500 new institutions, a growth of 41.94%, representing over 40% of the total [4] Cultural and Related Industries - The cultural and related industries established 20,400 new institutions, with a year-on-year growth of 12.77%, continuing to improve from the first quarter [5] - Content creation and production institutions accounted for 69.71% of the total, with a growth rate of 103.56% driven by cultural tourism integration funds and performance investment platforms [5] - Suburban areas experienced a growth rate of 35.37%, while central urban areas accounted for 44.03% of the new cultural institutions [5]

Core Viewpoint - The overall economic operation in China during the first half of the year is stable and improving, with strong resilience and innovative vitality in the industrial economy, highlighted by three structural features. Group 1: Economic Performance - The primary industry shows accelerated growth with a 3.7% year-on-year increase in agricultural value added, ensuring food security through stable grain planting areas and a good summer harvest [2] - The secondary industry maintains a steady growth rate with a 6.4% year-on-year increase in industrial value added, slightly lower than the first quarter but within a reasonable range of 5.5%-6.5% [2] - The tertiary industry is experiencing robust growth, with a 5.5% year-on-year increase in service industry value added, indicating a significant recovery and acceleration in development [2] Group 2: Industrial Upgrades - The industrial sector is advancing towards new, green, and intelligent developments, with high-tech manufacturing value added increasing by 9.5% year-on-year, outpacing overall industrial growth [3] - The production of green low-carbon products, such as wind power generators and high-performance chemical fibers, has seen significant increases of 72.0% and 36.6% respectively [5] - The digital manufacturing sector is also growing rapidly, with a 9.9% year-on-year increase in value added, showcasing the integration of artificial intelligence into traditional industries [6] Group 3: Service Sector Dynamics - The service sector's contribution to GDP is notable, with a 59.1% share and a contribution rate of 60.2%, indicating a dual-driven growth model [7] - The productive service industry is thriving, with significant growth in sectors like postal, telecommunications, and financial services, where business activity indices remain above 55.0% [7] - Consumer services are also innovating, with a 5.3% year-on-year increase in retail service revenue and a notable rise in cultural and tourism sectors [8] Group 4: Future Outlook - The industrial economy is expected to gain stronger momentum in the second half of the year, driven by coordinated macro policies, deepening new and old kinetic energy conversion, and expanding consumption scenarios [8]