（文章来源：第一财经） 华泰证券研报指出，近日国家发改委发布《电力中长期市场基本规则（征求意见稿）》，针对电力中长 期市场的参与主体、交易品种、电价机制进行修订。过去几个月"136号文"各省承接文件加速出台，新 能源发展进入电价新时代。电力市场化政策细节正在持续丰富，继续看好风电、储能、电力设备结构性 机会。 ...

Group 1 - Recent market liquidity characteristics show a clear divergence in ETF fund flows, with broad-based funds decreasing while industry/theme funds are increasing, indicating a high-cut low characteristic in institutional allocation [1] - The market may be entering the last round of intensive subscription and redemption phase for active public funds since 2021, which could alleviate redemption pressure as core assets held by institutions rise [1] - The pressure from high debt funding rates and passive interest rate cuts from central banks coexist, suggesting that China's manufacturing sector may gradually regain pricing power and profit margins in the long term [1] Group 2 - Current market risk appetite is high, supporting equity asset performance, with recommendations to overweight AH shares and US stocks while maintaining bond and gold allocations [2] - A-shares are expected to remain optimistic due to capital market reforms, stable market liquidity, and improving risk preferences, with no significant overheating observed [2] - Incremental economic support measures are anticipated, providing sustainable upward momentum for the Chinese stock market [2] Group 3 - A-share market is experiencing increased volatility due to profit-taking pressures, but the core driving forces for the recent upward trend remain intact [3] - The market is in a phase of resonance inflow from both institutions and individuals, with a focus on low-position themes driven by financing [3] - TMT sectors are expected to remain the main line in the medium to long term, with recommendations to focus on AI, pharmaceuticals, and financial sectors [3] Group 4 - Recent adjustments in the A-share market are viewed as part of an upward trend, with expectations for a low-slope upward movement to continue [4] - The strategy should focus on sectors with low penetration rates, particularly in AI computing, solid-state batteries, and humanoid robots [4] - Mid-year performance revisions are concentrated in TMT, high-end manufacturing, and pharmaceuticals, with specific recommendations for digital chip design and lithium batteries [4] Group 5 - The current market is in a consolidation phase after a slow bull market, with a focus on high-low switching during this period [5] - The core logic of AI computing remains valid, with recommendations to pay attention to sectors like new energy and innovative pharmaceuticals [5] - The market is expected to experience a healthy rhythm of incremental funds post-adjustment [5] Group 6 - A-share market is likely to continue a trend of oscillation and upward movement, with a focus on short-term volatility risks [6] - Growth sectors have shown high prosperity, and industries like machinery and power equipment may have rebound potential [6] - Attention should be given to low-position sectors benefiting from policy support and the "anti-involution" concept [6] Group 7 - Current market volatility remains high, with a likelihood of entering a sideways consolidation phase [7] - Focus on new directions such as power equipment and non-ferrous metals for future opportunities [7] - The performance of gold stocks is expected to be more elastic compared to gold prices due to their current low valuation [7] Group 8 - A-share market is expected to experience wide fluctuations, with potential sector rotations within prosperous segments [8] - Hong Kong stocks are becoming more attractive due to expectations of US interest rate cuts and a weaker dollar [8] - The AI industry remains a mid-term focus, with attention on sectors with improving fundamentals and potential catalysts [8] Group 9 - The long-term trend for indices remains optimistic, with a focus on structural investment over overall market performance [9] - The current investment strategy emphasizes a dual-driven market, prioritizing technology sectors [9] - For investors seeking lower-position varieties, sectors like gaming and internet are recommended [9] Group 10 - High turnover rates indicate potential short-term adjustment pressures in the market [10] - Historical patterns suggest that high turnover during a bull market can lead to structural shifts and consolidation [10] - The market is expected to see style rotation as policy expectations evolve, particularly in the fourth quarter [10]

Group 1 - The report maintains a view of a gradual upward trend for the index despite a slight adjustment this week, with the Shanghai Composite Index experiencing a minor decline of 1.18% after four consecutive weeks of gains [3][14]. - In terms of industry structure, the report highlights that sectors such as electric equipment (7.4%), comprehensive (5.4%), and non-ferrous metals (2.1%) led the gains, while previously strong technology sectors like communications are expected to undergo adjustments but still possess upward recovery potential [4][15]. - The report emphasizes that technology remains a key investment theme, with a structural shift beginning to take place, particularly focusing on high-end manufacturing, solid-state batteries, and robotics [5][16]. Group 2 - The report identifies solid-state batteries as a significant area of focus, predicting that from 2025 to 2027, they may transition from pilot production to mass production, driven by technological convergence, policy support, and application scenarios [5][16]. - In the robotics sector, the report anticipates that policies and new products will emerge gradually until the end of the year, indicating a favorable period for investment in companies with established market shares and technological barriers [5][16]. - The report suggests that attention should be directed towards domestic supply chain core companies in the ASIC and TPU sectors, noting positive trends in Google's TPU business and Meta's planned investment of $600 billion by 2028, which could catalyze growth in the domestic supply chain [6][17]. Group 3 - The report acknowledges a temporary cooling of market sentiment towards domestic computing power and advanced processes but maintains a positive outlook on the acceleration of industry progress, suggesting that the market has not fully reflected future industry expectations [7][18].

Group 1 - The article highlights three liquidity characteristics in the markets, including a clear divergence in ETF fund flows, with broad-based funds decreasing while industry/theme funds are increasing, and A-shares decreasing while Hong Kong stocks are increasing [2] - The market is entering a final round of intensive subscription and redemption for actively managed public funds since 2021, which may alleviate redemption pressure as core assets held by institutions rise [2] - The pressure from high debt funding rates and passive interest rate cuts from central banks coexists, with China's manufacturing sector gradually easing competitive pressures, indicating a potential long-term recovery in profit margins for Chinese manufacturing [2] Group 2 - The current market risk appetite is high, supporting equity asset performance, with recommendations to overweight AH shares and US stocks while maintaining standard allocations to bonds and gold [3] - A-shares are expected to remain optimistic due to capital market reforms, stable liquidity, and improving risk preferences, with no significant concerns over short-term adjustments [3] - The probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates in September may provide room for adjustments in China's monetary policy, supporting the upward momentum in the Chinese stock market [3] Group 3 - The A-share market is experiencing increased volatility due to profit-taking pressures, but the core driving forces for the current upward trend remain intact [4] - The market is in a phase of resonance inflow from both institutions and individuals, with a focus on low-position themes driven by financing [4] - The recommendation is to focus on sectors with strong industrial trends such as TMT, while also considering low-crowding sectors for short-term opportunities [4] Group 4 - The recent market adjustment is characterized as a correction within an ongoing upward trend, with expectations for a more sustainable low-slope rise following the adjustment [5] - The strategy emphasizes embracing low-penetration sectors, particularly in AI computing, solid-state batteries, humanoid robots, and commercial aerospace/satellite internet [5] - Key areas of focus include quality growth in sectors such as digital chip design, communication network devices, gaming, and lithium batteries [5] Group 5 - The market has entered a consolidation phase after a slow bull market, with significant trading activity concentrated in the TMT sector [6] - The recommendation is to maintain positions in dividend stocks while focusing on sectors that have lagged but still have positive growth logic [6] - Key sectors to watch include new energy, new consumption, innovative pharmaceuticals, and non-bank financials [6] Group 6 - The A-share market is expected to continue its upward trend, but caution is advised due to increased volatility and the need to monitor marginal changes in market volume [7] - Growth sectors have shown high levels of prosperity, with potential for rotation among sectors as industry trends develop [7] - Low-position sectors, particularly in consumer segments supported by policy, may strengthen in the short term [7] Group 7 - The current market volatility remains high, with a likelihood of entering a sideways trading phase, necessitating attention to new directions such as power equipment and non-ferrous metals [8] - The fourth quarter is anticipated to catalyze global cyclical trading, with a focus on inflation-driven industrial products and gold [8] - Gold stocks, currently undervalued, may exhibit greater elasticity compared to gold prices following recent highs [8] Group 8 - The A-share market is expected to experience wide fluctuations, with potential sector rotations within prosperous segments [9] - The Hong Kong market's attractiveness is increasing due to expectations of US interest rate cuts and a weaker dollar [9] - Key sectors to focus on include new energy, internet, innovative pharmaceuticals, and semiconductors [9] Group 9 - The long-term outlook for the market remains optimistic, with a focus on structural investment over overall market trends [10] - The current investment strategy emphasizes a dual-driven market with technology leading the way, suggesting that sector selection may be more critical than stock selection [10] - Growth sectors are favored, with recommendations to explore lower-position varieties in gaming, media, and the Huawei supply chain [10] Group 10 - High turnover rates in the market often indicate increased short-term adjustment pressures, but do not alter the long-term upward trend [11] - The TMT sector has seen significant trading activity, suggesting potential structural shifts and consolidation [11] - The fourth quarter is expected to see an acceleration of incremental capital entering the market, driven by policy expectations [11]

9月首个交易周，A股震荡调整，上证指数、深证成指全周分别下跌1.18%、0.83%，创业板指上涨 2.35%。 展望后市，业内机构研判，短期市场波动或有所加大，建议投资者用结构调整去应对波动；债市9月或 延续震荡。在具体配置上，科技、"反内卷"是机构看好的重点方向；机械设备、电力设备等行业具备补 涨潜力，可关注其资金回流情况；有色金属板块高景气有望延续。 影响后市投资大事件： 中国央行连续第10个月增持黄金 国家外汇管理局9月7日发布数据显示，8月末我国黄金储备为7402万盎司，环比增加6万盎司，为我国央 行连续第10个月增持黄金。业内人士指出，黄金是全球广泛接受的最终支付手段，我国央行增持黄金能 够增强主权货币的信用，为稳慎推进人民币国际化创造有利条件。 公募基金销售费用管理新规发布 9月5日，证监会网站消息称，证监会对《开放式证券投资基金销售费用管理规定》进行了修订，并更名 为《公开募集证券投资基金销售费用管理规定》，向社会公开征求意见。《规定》将股票型基金的认申 购费率上限由1.2%、1.5%，调降至0.8%；将混合型基金的认申购费率上限由1.2%、1.5%，调降至 0.5%；将债券型基金的认申购费率上 ...

行业拥挤度 ：综合、有色金属、通信、电力设备和机械设备的行业拥挤度相对较高。 电力设备和综合的行业拥挤度上升幅度相对较大。 下行，仍有较多的下降空间。综上所述，我们认为，市场下周将继续维持震荡 。 报告导读： SAR指标出现向下突破反转，情绪模型同时发出负向信号；均线强弱指数继续 下周（20250908-20250912，后文同）市场观点：下周市场将延续涨势。 从量化指标上看，基于沪深300指数的流动性冲击指标周五为0.77，低于前一周 （1.26），意味着当前市场的流动性高于过去一年平均水平0.77倍标准差。上证50ETF期权成交量的PUT-CALL比率震荡上升，周五为0.80，高于前一周 （0.66），投资者对上证50ETF短期走势谨慎程度上升。上证综指和Wind全A五日平均换手率分别为1.47%和2.25%，处于2005年以来的79.90%和 87.15%分位点，交易活跃度有所下降。从宏观因子上看，1. 上周人民币汇率震荡，在岸和离岸汇率周涨幅分别为0.66%、0.68%。2. 根据国家统计局公布 的数据，中国8月官方制造业PMI为49.3，低于前值（49.7），高于Wind一致预期（49.25）；标普 ...

Report Information - Report Title: "Bonds Rise Amid Dispute - Asset Allocation Weekly" - Date: September 7, 2025 - Analysts: Luo Yunfeng, Huang Hailan 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report Core View - China is in a marginal de - leveraging process, with the entity sector's debt growth rate trending downward. The government aims to stabilize the macro - leverage ratio, and large - scale debt resolution is beneficial for the whole society's expectations [2][19]. - In the short - term, the capital market shows a pattern of "stock bear and bond bull", with risk preference declining. The cost - performance ratio of stocks and bonds favors bonds, and the equity style turns to value dominance [6][24]. - In the de - leveraging cycle, the cost - performance ratio of stocks and bonds favors equities to a limited extent, and the value style is more likely to be dominant. The report recommends an A + H dividend portfolio and an A - share portfolio [9][66]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 National Balance Sheet Analysis Liability Side - In July 2025, the debt growth rate of the entity sector was 9.1% (previous value 8.9%), expected to drop to about 9.0% in August and further decline to around 8% by the end of the year. The capital situation in the financial sector may be tight in September [2][19]. - The net increase of government bonds last week was 184 billion yuan (higher than the planned 156.5 billion yuan), and this week's planned net increase is 578 billion yuan. The government's debt growth rate is expected to decline to 12.5% by the end of the year [3][20]. - The one - year Treasury bond yield is expected to have a lower limit of about 1.3%, the ten - year Treasury bond yield's lower limit is about 1.6%, and the thirty - year Treasury bond yield's lower limit is about 1.8% [3][20]. Asset Side - After a brief stabilization in June, the physical quantity data declined again in July. The full - year nominal economic growth target in 2025 is about 4.9%, and it is necessary to observe whether this will become the central target for China's nominal economic growth in the next 1 - 2 years [4][21]. 3.2 Stock - Bond Cost - Performance and Stock - Bond Style - Last week, the capital situation tightened, risk preference declined, and the cost - performance ratio of stocks and bonds favored bonds. The ten - year Treasury bond yield decreased by 1 basis point to 1.84%, and the one - year Treasury bond yield increased by 3 basis points to 1.40% [6][24]. - The broad - based rotation strategy underperformed the CSI 300 index by - 1.07 pct last week and - 7.11 pct since July. The maximum drawdown was 12.1% (compared with the CSI 300's 15.7%) [6][24]. - This week, the report moderately increases the proportion of growth stocks, recommending the CSI 1000 index (80% position) and the 30 - year Treasury bond ETF (20% position) [8][27]. 3.3 Industry Recommendation 3.3.1 Industry Performance Review - This week, A - shares declined with reduced trading volume. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.2%, and the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.8%, while the ChiNext Index rose 2.4%. Among the Shenwan primary industries, power equipment, comprehensive, non - ferrous metals, medicine and biology, and textile and apparel had the largest increases, while national defense and military industry, computer, non - bank finance, electronics, and steel had the largest declines [32]. 3.3.2 Industry Crowding and Trading Volume - As of September 5, the top five crowded industries were electronics, power equipment, machinery, computer, and communication, while the bottom five were beauty care, comprehensive, coal, petroleum and petrochemical, and steel [33]. - The top five industries with increased crowding this week were power equipment, commercial retail, media, medicine and biology, and basic chemicals, while the top five with decreased crowding were computer, non - bank finance, national defense and military industry, electronics, and food and beverage [33]. - As of September 5, the crowding of power equipment, communication, electronics, machinery, and commercial retail was at relatively high percentiles since 2018, while that of petroleum and petrochemical, food and beverage, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, transportation, and coal was at relatively low percentiles [33]. 3.3.3 Industry Valuation and Earnings - This week, among the Shenwan primary industries, real estate, coal, petroleum and petrochemical, beauty care, and textile and apparel had the largest increases in PE(TTM), while national defense and military industry, computer, non - bank finance, electronics, and communication had the smallest increases [39]. - As of September 5, 2025, industries with high full - year 2024 earnings forecasts and relatively low current valuations compared to history include banks, insurance, coal, petroleum and petrochemical, transportation, auto parts, beauty care, and consumer electronics [40]. 3.3.4 Industry Prosperity - Externally, there was a general recovery. The global manufacturing PMI rose from 49.7 to 50.9 in August, and most major economies' PMIs increased. The CCFI index decreased by 0.62% week - on - week in the latest week, and port cargo throughput rebounded [44]. - Domestically, second - hand housing prices fell in the latest week, and quantity indicators showed mixed trends. The highway truck traffic volume declined, and the ten - industry fitted capacity utilization rate continued to rise slightly from July to August [44]. 3.3.5 Public Fund Market Review - In the first week of September (September 1 - 5), most active public equity funds outperformed the CSI 300. As of September 5, the net asset value of active public equity funds was 4.05 trillion yuan, slightly up from 3.66 trillion yuan in Q4 2024 [61]. 3.3.6 Industry Recommendation - In the de - leveraging cycle, the cost - performance ratio of stocks and bonds favors equities to a limited extent, and the value style is more likely to be dominant. The recommended A + H dividend portfolio and A - share portfolio mainly focus on industries such as banks, telecommunications, petroleum and petrochemical, and transportation [66].

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a slight pullback from September 1 to 5, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.18% to close at 3812.51 points, while the Shenzhen Component fell 0.83% and the ChiNext Index rose 2.35% [1] - Among the sectors, power equipment, light industry manufacturing, and textile and apparel showed the highest gains, while defense, computer, and communication sectors performed relatively weak [1] - New energy themes such as power batteries, photovoltaic inverters, lithium battery electrolytes, lithium battery anode materials, and energy storage exhibited significant rotation and activity [1] Institutional Research Highlights - A total of 353 companies disclosed institutional research minutes last week, with approximately 30% of these companies achieving positive returns [1] - Notable performers included China Ruilin, which saw a stock price increase of 27.64% over four days, and several other companies like Huasheng Lithium Battery and Huawai Technology, which recorded gains exceeding 20% [1] Company-Specific Insights 澜起科技 (Chip Design) - 澜起科技 received attention from 231 institutions last week, reporting a revenue of 2.633 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 58.17%, and a net profit of 1.159 billion yuan, up 95.41% [3] - The company attributed its growth to the booming AI industry, with significant increases in the shipment of DDR5 memory interface and module chips, as well as rapid growth in three high-performance chips [3][4] - The PCIe Retimer chip, crucial for AI servers, has evolved from PCIe 3.0 to PCIe 4.0, doubling data transmission speed from 8GT/s to 16GT/s, addressing issues of signal integrity and timing [3][4] 炬光科技 (Optical Technology) - 炬光科技 engaged with 192 institutions, reporting a revenue of 393 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a 26.20% increase, and a net loss reduction to 24.94 million yuan, improving cash flow [6] - The company's gross margin improved significantly to 33%, driven by optimizing business structure, turning around the gross margin of automotive micro-lens array products, and accelerating new business development [6] 恺英网络 (Gaming Industry) - 恺英网络 held discussions with 162 institutions, achieving a revenue of 2.578 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a 0.89% increase, and a net profit of 950 million yuan, up 17.41% [8] - The company introduced its AI toy brand "Warm Star Valley Dream Journey," targeting emotional companionship for the 12-35 age group, with plans to launch products in 2025 [8][9] - Additionally, 恺英网络 developed an AI full-process development platform "SOON" for the gaming industry, significantly shortening traditional game development cycles, and has attracted strategic investments [9]

来源：洪言微语 大宗商品方面，COMEX黄金受美联储降息预期及地缘政治风险推动上涨3.52%收于3639.8美元/盎司， 并带动A股和港股贵金属板块领涨；ICE布油则因全球经济增长放缓预期小幅下跌2.68%收于65.67美元/ 桶。 A股市场本周出现本轮行情以来第一次较为持续的调整，高位科技股短期获利了结压力显现，科创板跌 幅靠前。全周来看，上证指数下跌1.18%，收于3812.51点；深证成指下跌0.83%；受新能源行情支撑， 创业板指逆势收涨2.35%；而因AI算力、光模块等前期涨幅较大板块出现回调，科创50指数大幅下跌 5.42%。 交投活跃度方面，全周A股成交额13.02万亿元，日均成交2.60万亿元，环比下降12.8%；两融余额较上 周减少约800亿元，至2.16万亿元，显示杠杆资金正在高位板块进行获利了结。不过创业板指成交额占 比提升至31.3%，反映资金仍向成长赛道集中。 本周全球股市呈现"科技股领涨、A股成长板块分化、港股南向资金推动估值修复"的格局。全球流动性 宽松预期成为影响风险偏好的核心逻辑，美联储9月降息25个基点的概率已达99.4%，叠加贵金属板块 受避险需求驱动大幅上涨，市场结构性 ...

Group 1 - The electric power equipment industry has become a favorite among investors in September, with a net buying amount of 1.144 billion yuan, leading the market [1][2] - 26 stocks, including Jianghuai Automobile, saw over 100 million yuan in financing on a single day, indicating significant institutional interest [2] - The current market activity may reflect a strategic maneuver by institutions rather than genuine enthusiasm for the new energy sector [1][9] Group 2 - Historical context shows that market fluctuations often coincide with institutional strategies, such as the significant market movements in the second quarter of 2025 [3][4] - Institutions may engage in "smashing the market" to accumulate shares when they find their positions insufficient, leading to sudden market drops that are misinterpreted as external shocks [4][12] - The electric power equipment sector's current financing activity raises questions about whether it is a genuine value discovery or a prelude to another institutional shakeout [9][12] Group 3 - Case studies of Huadong Medicine and Shenzhou Cell illustrate the difference between genuine market adjustments and strategic institutional actions, with the latter often leading to significant price movements [6][8] - Data analysis reveals that Shenzhou Cell experienced notable institutional buying during its adjustment, while Huadong Medicine did not, resulting in divergent outcomes when the market rebounded [8] - The electric power equipment industry's recent activity may mirror past instances where institutions manipulated market perceptions to their advantage [12]