市 场 研 究 [Table_Title] 万联晨会 [Table_MeetReportDate] 2025 年 05 月 09 日 星期五 研报精选 "五一"旅游市场平稳增长，长线游与入境游表现亮眼 家电行业 25Q1 基金持仓跟踪报告 交运行业 25Q1 公募基金持仓跟踪报告 | [Table_InnerMarketIndex] 国内市场表现 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | 收盘 | 涨跌幅% | | 上证指数 | 3,352.00 | 0.28% | | 深证成指 | 10,197.66 | 0.93% | | 沪深 300 | 3,852.90 | 0.56% | | 科创 50 | 1,026.44 | -0.36% | | 创业板指 | 2,029.45 | 1.65% | | 上证 50 | 2,679.51 | 0.33% | | 上证 180 | 8,546.20 | 0.14% | | 上证基金 | 6,902.65 | 0.35% | | 国债指数 | 224.77 | 0.05% | | [Table_InterIndex] | 国际市场表现 | ...

这两天互联网上印巴话题热度急升，这两个都是中国的邻国，巴基斯坦号称巴铁，和咱们的关系走的亲 近些，印度和中国的关系比较复杂，有合作也有对抗，另外还是制造业上的潜在竞争对手，网民对他们 的总体印象不佳。 所以当新闻传来巴基斯坦用中国武器打掉了印度从法国、俄罗斯买来的飞机时，国内网民的情绪一下子 就被点燃了，这有点像修仙爽文里的情节，我给了小弟一件法宝，结果小弟用法宝痛揍了那个我早就看 不顺眼的瘪三，快乐加倍 不过现实中巴基斯坦和印度无论是军力还是综合实力，都有较大差距。印度的gdp是巴基斯坦的11倍， 人口14.3亿对2.4亿，外汇储备印度比巴基斯坦多了45倍。两国军费差了8倍，军队规模印度多了2倍，坦 克和飞机数量都多了60%。 哦对了，有个事顺带提一下，巴基斯坦股市今天大跌7.65%，盘中一度触发熔断，看起来是资金避险出 逃，但这个关注的人不多，毕竟巴基斯坦的股市规模太小了，总市值就3000多亿人民币，和印度差了近 百倍。 今天a股缩量了，1.29万亿，但中位数+0.75%还不错，底下缺口好几个但走势依然强劲。不知道是不是 受了印巴局势的影响，制造业板块全面上涨： 轨道交通+2.7%、通信+2.7%、通用设 ...

消费·掘金 年报一季报总结电话会议 20250504 传统内需市场在当前宏观环境下存在底部反转机会。通过比较 2025 年的贸易 战与 2018 年的贸易战，可以看到两者在市场选择上的相似性。在 2018 年贸 易战后，市场于 2019 和 2020 年全面布局消费，包括传统消费与新能源车技 术路线落地。如果映射到当前环境，本次宏观政策取向对消费的正面影响远好 于 2018 年，同时路径也较为相似。因此，我们看好创新消费在后续复苏叠加 良好政策取向下实现成长。从今年三月社零数据超预期以及四月地产数据回稳 来看，如果五六月份能够持续证实一季度相关宏观数据企稳，那么下半年市场 可能会更为重视传统消费及白马公司的布局。特别是具备结构性提价能力的板 块和公司值得重点关注。此外，从去年（2024 年）第四季度到今年（2025 年）第一季度，新消费报表端逐渐超预期，估值空间已经打开，而很多新消费 公司的估值已达到较高水平，因此只要传统消费公司的报表端稍微改善，其上 涨逻辑将更加通畅。 食品饮料板块的表现如何？有哪些子赛道值得关注？ 食品饮料板块整体分化明显，其中许多子赛道相对传统，如白酒、啤酒、乳制 品和调味品等。偏传统 ...

行业报告 | 行业研究周报 家用电器 证券研究报告 家电行业 2024 年报&25Q1 总结 行业概览：Q1 家电板块营收业绩增长提速，现金流趋势向好。24 年家用电 器（申万）板块整体营收/归母净利润分别达 15832/1199 亿元，同比 +5%/+7%；25Q1 板块整体营收/归母净利润分别达 4237/330 亿元，同比 +13%/+25%。盈利能力方面，24 年板块毛利率/归母净利率为 24.6%/7.6%， 同比-1.4/+0.1pct；25Q1 板块毛利率/归母净利率分别为 23.6%/7.8%，分别 同比-1.6/+0.7pct。现金流方面，24 年/25Q1 板块经营活动现金流净额分别 为 1664/288 亿元，分别同比-19%/+116%。 白电板块：Q1 板块营收增速环比提速，净利率优化兑现。白电核心个股 2024 年营收/归母净利润分别同比+6%/+13%；25Q1 营收/归母净利润分别同 比+16%/+28%。收入端，美的集团 25Q1 收入增速领先行业；业绩端，受益 于白电龙头综合费用率优化、数字化变革等因素带动，美的集团、海尔智 家、格力电器、海信家电 25Q1 归母净利润同比 ...

行业研究丨深度报告丨家用电器 [Table_Title] 如何看白电龙头降本增效？ %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 白电龙头于全价值链的持续降本增效，是龙头于规模、盈利两维度间获得高效均衡的一大底气。 具体内涵来看，白电龙头的降本增效工作覆盖价值链的环节逐步全面化，目标管理体系逐步立 体化。达成效果来看，白电龙头人效指标近十年来显著提升，指标本身和提升幅度均显著优于 二线白电企业，从人员数量、构成的变动，亦可见龙头生产流程自动化、组织层级优化以及全 流程数字化带来的效率优化。后续白电龙头仍有望通过扩大降本增效于经营全流程中的广度、 通过复制已有优秀经验来挖潜单环节降本增效的深度，来进一步实现内生效率的优化。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 陈亮 SAC：S0490517070017 SFC：BUW408 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 23 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 [Table_Title2] 如何看白电龙头降本增效？ [Table_Summary2] 引 ...

智通财经APP获悉，招商证券发布研究报告称，截至4月30日上午，A股上市公司2024年年报和2025年 一季报业绩基本披露完毕(披露率99.8%)。受政策效果持续显现以及科技创新趋势驱动，整体A股盈利增 速转正。大类行业中信息技术、消费服务增速相对领先，TMT、资源品和中游制造业边际改善。推荐 关注业绩增速相对较高、自由现金流边际改善的领域。 招商证券主要观点如下： 利润端：一季度上市公司业绩边际改善。根据一致可比口径和整体法测算，A股2024Q3/2024Q4/2025Q1 单季度净利润增速依次为3.7%/-15.7%/3.2%，非金融石油石化2024Q3/2024Q4/2025Q1单季度净利润增速 为-10.5%/-50.2%/4.5%。 收入端：全部A股单季度收入增速较24Q4放缓，但仍高于24Q3，延续改善。全部A股 2024Q3/2024Q4/2025Q1单季度收入增速依次为-2.0%/1.4%/-0.3%，非金融石油石化板块 2024Q3/2024Q4/2025Q1单季度收入增速依次为-2.9%/1.2%/0.5%。海外营收增幅扩大，海外营收占收入 的比例持续提升。 25年一季度A股盈利回暖主要受 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gree Electric's new leadership faces the challenge of restoring revenue to over 200 billion yuan, as the company reported a revenue of 190 billion yuan for 2024, a decline of 7.31% year-on-year, while net profit increased by 10.91% to 32.185 billion yuan [1][2]. Revenue Performance - Gree Electric's revenue for 2024 was 1900.38 billion yuan, marking a 7.31% decline compared to the previous year, which is the first revenue drop in four years [2][5]. - In contrast, Midea Group achieved a revenue of 4090.84 billion yuan, a growth of 9.47%, and Haier Smart Home reported 2859.80 billion yuan, a growth of 4.29% [2][3]. - Gree Electric's revenue composition shows that consumer electronics accounted for 78.54% of total revenue, while industrial products and green energy made up 9.12% [4]. Profitability Analysis - Despite the revenue decline, Gree Electric's net profit reached 32.185 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 10.91%, placing it second among the three giants [5][6]. - Gree Electric's net profit margin improved to 17.11%, an increase of 3.52 percentage points year-on-year, indicating strong profitability despite revenue challenges [6][7]. Dividend Distribution - Gree Electric plans to distribute a cash dividend of 20 yuan per 10 shares, totaling approximately 11.170 billion yuan, contributing to a cumulative cash dividend of 16.692 billion yuan for 2024 [1]. Sales Expenses - Gree Electric significantly reduced its sales expenses by 34.11% to 9.753 billion yuan, which is only 5.13% of its revenue, contrasting with Midea and Haier, which had sales expenses exceeding 30 billion yuan [8][9]. Market Positioning - The competition among the three giants is intensifying, with Gree Electric and Midea both claiming to be the leader in the air conditioning market, using different metrics to support their claims [11][12]. - Gree Electric's air conditioning segment generated revenue of 779.61 billion yuan, while Midea's HVAC revenue was 1014.61 billion yuan, indicating a competitive landscape [10][16].

Summary of Hisense Home Appliances Q1 2025 Earnings Call Company Overview - **Company**: Hisense Home Appliances - **Date**: Q1 2025 Earnings Call Key Points Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue reached 197.81 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 14.89% [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 11.27 billion CNY, up 14.89% year-on-year [3] - Non-recurring net profit was 10.07 billion CNY, reflecting a 20% increase year-on-year [2][3] - Operating cash flow decreased year-on-year, primarily due to currency fluctuations and reduced revenue from the three-electric business [2][8] Business Segments - **Central Air Conditioning**: Overall growth with a good performance in the ToC segment; however, the construction sector saw a decline [2][9] - **Home Air Conditioning**: External sales growth exceeded 40%, with Europe accounting for over 45% of revenue [2][10] - **Washing and Refrigeration**: External sales showed double-digit growth, while internal sales remained stable [6][10] - **Three Electric Business**: Slight decline in revenue [6] Profitability and Margins - Overall gross margin slightly decreased, but external sales improved margins due to lower marketing costs [6][11] - Central air conditioning net margin exceeded 17%, benefiting from improved gross margins and optimized expense ratios [11][12] - The company aims for single-digit revenue growth while maintaining stable profit margins throughout the year [12] Market Dynamics - External sales growth is expected to continue, with a focus on emerging markets [21][22] - The company is cautious about potential slowdowns in external sales growth, particularly in mature markets [10] - The competitive landscape is intensifying, especially with price competition affecting both online and offline markets [33][34] Strategic Initiatives - The company is launching new products, such as a three-tub washing machine and a new air conditioning model, to enhance market competitiveness [15][31] - Hisense is focusing on brand differentiation, particularly with the repositioning of the Kelon brand to target younger consumers [15][17] - Efforts to penetrate emerging markets include establishing local sales networks and adapting successful domestic marketing strategies [23][26] Risks and Challenges - Currency fluctuations, particularly the yen, have impacted cash flow [8] - The company faces challenges from increased competition, particularly from brands like Xiaomi in the air conditioning sector [31][32] - The impact of high tariffs in the U.S. is minimal, as the company has diversified its production and sales across various regions [25][30] Future Outlook - The company expects gradual improvement in cash flow and performance in the second quarter [9] - Continued focus on innovation and market expansion is anticipated to drive growth in both domestic and international markets [15][21] Additional Insights - The asset-liability ratio increased to 71.23%, influenced by acquisitions and special dividends [13][14] - The company maintains a strong liquidity position, with sufficient cash equivalents to cover short-term liabilities [14] This summary encapsulates the key insights from Hisense Home Appliances' Q1 2025 earnings call, highlighting financial performance, market dynamics, strategic initiatives, and future outlook.

Core Viewpoints - The report anticipates potential positive factors for the A-share market in the next month, including domestic growth stabilization and possible negotiations on US-China tariffs, which may drive market rebounds [4][10] - The report suggests that the current tariff shock is a significant black swan event, but due to its occurrence at the beginning of a bull market, the impact on market valuation may have already been completed [11] - The report recommends a value-oriented investment strategy, focusing on sectors that can provide both offensive and defensive opportunities, such as banks, steel, construction, and consumer sectors [12] Stock Recommendations - The report lists the "Top Ten Gold Stocks" for May 2025, which includes companies from various sectors such as food and beverage, home appliances, banking, power utilities, computing, media, electronics, new consumption, and energy [3][13] - Specific stocks highlighted include: - Wanchen Group (300972.SZ) in the food and beverage sector, with a projected EPS growth from -0.46 in 2023 to 6.67 in 2025 [3][14] - Xing Shuai Er (002860.SZ) in home appliances, with a projected EPS growth from 0.56 in 2023 to 0.73 in 2025 [3][18] - Qingdao Bank (002948.SZ) in banking, with a projected EPS growth from 0.61 in 2023 to 1.04 in 2025 [3][21] - New Energy (601918.SH) in power utilities, with a projected EPS growth from 0.81 in 2023 to 1.06 in 2025 [3][25] - Zhaoyi Information (688258.SH) in computing, with a projected EPS growth from 0.46 in 2023 to 0.81 in 2025 [3][29] - Tencent Holdings (0700.HK) in media, with a projected EPS growth from 11.89 in 2023 to 23.67 in 2025 [3][34] - Lens Technology (300433.SZ) in electronics, with a projected EPS growth from 0.61 in 2023 to 1.39 in 2025 [3][38] - Blukoo (0325.HK) in new consumption, with a projected EPS growth from -1.38 in 2023 to 5.53 in 2025 [3][41] - Yanzhou Coal Mining (600188.SH) in energy, with a projected EPS growth from 2.01 in 2023 to 1.39 in 2025 [3][45] - Xianhe Co., Ltd. (603733.SH) in new consumption, with a projected EPS growth from 0.94 in 2023 to 2.54 in 2025 [3][46] Industry Insights - The food and beverage sector, represented by Wanchen Group, is expected to strengthen its competitive position with a significant increase in store numbers and a focus on the snack retail market [14][15] - The home appliance sector, represented by Xing Shuai Er, is experiencing stable growth in white goods, driven by national subsidy policies [18][19] - The banking sector, represented by Qingdao Bank, shows strong loan growth and improved asset quality, with a focus on manufacturing and green loans [21][22] - The power utility sector, represented by New Energy, is expected to benefit from rising coal demand and improved cost management [25][26] - The computing sector, represented by Zhaoyi Information, is positioned for growth with its unique low-code development platform, SnapDevelop, which has a strong market potential [29][30] - The media sector, represented by Tencent Holdings, is seeing robust growth in its gaming and advertising businesses, with significant contributions from its social media platforms [34][35] - The electronics sector, represented by Lens Technology, is benefiting from the growth of the smartphone market and strong partnerships with major clients [38][39] - The new consumption sector, represented by Blukoo, is leveraging its IP commercialization strategy to drive growth and expand its market presence [41][42] - The energy sector, represented by Yanzhou Coal Mining, is focused on increasing coal production and improving cost efficiency amid fluctuating coal prices [45][46]

长虹美菱 20250415 摘要 • 长虹美菱高管层调整，杨金、张英分别担任四川长虹总经理和副总经理， 汤永道任长虹美菱总裁，显示公司治理结构的新变化，预示着管理层对公 司未来发展战略的调整。 • 公司深化渠道改革，以长虹美菱为平台，统筹中国区营销渠道转型，包括 直达终端用户、渠道扁平化和链路数字化提效，同时在国际区依托电商转 型和 ODM 代工扩大规模，实现超预期增长。 • 尽管资本市场受关税冲击波动，但长虹美菱出口比例仅 35%，且几乎没有 美国收入敞口，主要出口目的地集中在新兴市场，因此受影响较小，目前 股价回调更多是风险偏好下降和流动性收缩导致的误伤。 • 公司账面净现金 81 亿元，当前市值低于净现金价值，股息率超过 5%，短 期经营数据良好，一季度中山长虹空调出口产量同比增长 54%，冰箱冷柜 生产订单增长 10%，洗衣机增长 25%，抄底性价比高。 • 受益于国家补贴政策，公司有望提升产品结构并提高整体利润率，美菱冰 洗及空调内销净利率有很大的改善空间，同时推动 C2M 客户订单制模式， 提高下线客户订单比例，并进行电商业务转型。 Q&A 长虹美菱在公司治理方面有哪些重要变化？ 长虹美菱作为四川 ...