Core Viewpoint - Skechers has agreed to be acquired by 3G Capital, which may provide new opportunities for the company amid challenges such as tariff pressures and business development issues [2][3]. Group 1: Acquisition Details - 3G Capital will acquire all outstanding shares of Skechers at a cash price of $63 per share, representing a 30% premium over the weighted average share price over the last 15 trading days [3]. - Following the acquisition, Skechers will become a private company and will continue to be led by its current executive team [3]. - Skechers aims to continue its existing strategic initiatives post-acquisition, leveraging 3G Capital's long-term investment experience [3][11]. Group 2: Tariff Impact - Skechers faces significant pressure from U.S. tariff policies, which could lead to decreased profit margins, increased shoe prices, and reduced consumer demand [4][5]. - The U.S. market accounts for 38% of Skechers' global sales, while a majority of its manufacturing capabilities are based in Asia, making it vulnerable to tariff impacts [4]. Group 3: Business Performance - Skechers has experienced fluctuating global sales growth, with a 12.1% increase in sales for the 2024 fiscal year and a 7.5% increase for the 2023 fiscal year [8]. - The company reported a sales figure of $24.1 billion for Q1 2025, a 7.1% increase year-over-year, but faced a 16% decline in sales in its largest overseas market, China [8]. - Skechers' sales in China decreased by 0.9% in 2024, with a notable 11.5% drop in Q4 [8]. Group 4: Market Strategy - Skechers is shifting its focus towards professional sports segments, aiming to increase the proportion of professional sports products in total sales to 30% [9][10]. - The company has signed lifetime global contracts with international sports stars and is launching specialized footwear lines in basketball and soccer [10]. - Competitors like Nike and Adidas are also targeting low-price and down-market segments, intensifying competition for Skechers [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the textile and apparel sector, including Anta Sports, Tabo, and others, indicating a positive outlook for their performance in 2025 [5][14][30]. Core Insights - Adidas reported a 13% year-on-year revenue growth in Q1 2025, reaching €6.153 billion, with a significant operating profit increase of 82% to €610 million [1][18]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on companies with strong fundamentals and quality brands, anticipating performance recovery and valuation increases in 2025 [4][27]. - The textile and apparel sector is expected to benefit from supportive national policies and increased participation in sports activities, leading to resilient growth for related brands [4][27]. Summary by Sections Adidas Performance - In Q1 2025, Adidas' revenue grew by 13% to €6.153 billion, with a gross margin increase of 0.9 percentage points to 52.1% and an operating profit surge of 82% to €610 million [1][18]. - The company maintains its guidance for 2025, expecting high single-digit revenue growth, with double-digit growth for the Adidas brand [1][18]. Regional Performance - North America saw a 2.8% revenue increase to €1.184 billion, while Europe experienced a 14% growth to €1.986 billion, with Adidas brand revenues growing by 13% and 16% respectively [2][21]. - The Greater China region reported a 12.7% revenue increase to €1.029 billion, with Adidas brand revenue up by 14%, marking it as Adidas' third-largest market globally [2][24]. - Emerging markets and Latin America showed robust growth, with revenues increasing by 23.4% to €870 million and 26.2% to €698 million respectively, with Adidas brand revenues growing by 25% and 27% [3][24]. Industry Outlook - The report highlights a stable global demand for apparel, with a focus on companies that can optimize their competitive positions amid changing market dynamics [28]. - It recommends companies like Shenzhou International and Huayi Group for their attractive valuations and growth potential, with projected P/E ratios of 11x and 15x for 2025 respectively [28][30]. - The report also notes the importance of product differentiation and brand strength in the jewelry sector, with companies like Chow Tai Fook and Chow Hong Ki expected to perform well [28].

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 05 05 年 月 日 纺织服饰 周专题：adidas 公司 2025Q1 营收增长 13%，表现优异 【本周专题】 adidas 公司 2025Q1 营收增长 13%，表现超预期。adidas 披露 2025Q1 季 报，货币中性基础上营收同比增长 13%至 61.53 亿欧元，毛利率同比提升 0.9pcts 至 52.1%，经营利润同比大幅增长 82%至 6.1 亿欧元。截至 3 月末公司 库存同比增长 15%至 50.72 亿欧元，库存增加主要为了支持业务发展，库存处于 健康状态。 展望 2025 年：公司维持此前对于 2025 年的指引，预计 2025 年公司营收同比 增长高单位数，其中 adidas 品牌营收同比增长双位数。2025Q1 整体表现超公司 预期，然而当前美国关税问题或对公司业绩造成负面影响，综合考虑 Q1 表现以 及关税事件的不确定性因素后，公司维持此前指引。 分地区看：2025Q1 欧洲/大中华区业务增长亮眼，拉丁美洲业务持续快速增长。 1）欧洲&北美：货币中性基础上 2025Q1 北美业务营收同比增长 2.8%至 11 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the textile and apparel industry, including Anta Sports, Li Ning, and Bosideng [5][11][24]. Core Insights - Adidas is expected to achieve a revenue of €6.153 billion in Q1 2025, representing a 13% year-on-year growth, with a 17% growth for the Adidas brand excluding Yeezy [1][16]. - The textile and apparel sector is anticipated to experience a recovery in demand in 2025, supported by government policies and increased participation in sports activities [3][22]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on companies with strong fundamentals and quality brands for potential investment opportunities [3][22]. Summary by Sections Adidas Performance - Adidas forecasts a 13% year-on-year revenue growth for Q1 2025, with a gross margin increase of 0.9 percentage points to 52.1% [1][16]. - The company expects double-digit growth across all consumer markets [1][16]. Market Trends - The retail sales of clothing, shoes, and textiles in China grew by 3.4% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025, with the sportswear segment expected to outperform overall textile consumption [3][22]. - The report suggests a volatile recovery in demand for the textile sector throughout 2025 [3][22]. Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong fundamentals, such as Shenzhou International and Huayi Group, with respective 2025 PE ratios of 11x and 15x [4][23]. - Key companies highlighted for investment include Anta Sports, with a projected 2025 PE of 18x, and Bosideng, expected to deliver strong performance in 2025 [24][25]. Company Performance - Anta Sports reported significant growth in Q1 2025, with terminal sales increasing by high single digits, and other brands showing a 65%-70% year-on-year increase [24]. - For the home textile sector, Luolai Life expects a 20% growth in 2025, with a net profit of CNY 520 million [24][41].

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 04 27 年 月 日 纺织服饰 周专题：adidas 发布 2025Q1 业绩预告，经营表现超预期 【本周专题】 adidas 披露 2025Q1 业绩预告，营收同比增长 13%。根据公司披露 2025Q1 公司预计实现营收 61.53 亿欧元，货币中性基础上同比增长 13%，剔除 Yeezy 业务影响后公司预计 adidas 品牌营收同比增长 17%， 整体表现优异，超公司预期，分地区看公司预计各消费市场均有双位数 的增长表现。从利润率层面来看，公司 2025Q1 毛利率同比提升 0.9pcts 至 52.1%，其中 adidas 品牌毛利率提升 1.6pcts，经营利润率同比提升 3.7pcts 至 9.9%，经营利润大幅增长至 6.1 亿欧元。 此前公司发布 2024 年报时，曾预计 2025 年公司营收增长高单位数。 公司此前预计 2025 年营收同比增长高单位数，其中 adidas 品牌营收同 比增长双位数，分地区看预计 2025 年 adidas 品牌在北美/大中华区/新兴 市场/拉丁美洲营收同比增长双位数，欧洲/日韩营收增长高单位 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the historical evolution of tariffs as a policy tool, highlighting the lessons learned from past tariff implementations and their impacts on the economy, particularly in the context of the current trade tensions between the U.S. and China. Group 1: Historical Context - The Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930 significantly raised import tax rates, increasing the average tariff level in the U.S. from 13.5% in 1929 to 19.8% in 1933, leading to a 45% decline in nominal GDP and a 67% drop in total exports over four years, with unemployment reaching nearly 25% [1]. - Compared to the 1930s, the current global trade is characterized by international value chains, making the imposition of trade barriers more challenging and likely to disrupt supply chains [4]. Group 2: Current Trade Policies - Starting in 2018, the U.S. initiated multiple rounds of tariffs against China, escalating from $50 billion to $200 billion with a tax rate of 25%, resulting in a weakening of U.S.-China export ties and a temporary "export rush" effect in certain industries [6]. - The 2025 tariff policy under the Trump administration is expected to be more intense, with an average effective tariff rate projected to reach 22.4%, surpassing the levels seen during the Great Depression, and covering a broader range of products from consumer goods to high-tech items [10]. Group 3: Economic Impact - The macroeconomic impact of tariffs is typically gradual, with initial market reactions being severe, leading to a "rush to export" effect, as seen in 2018 when China's exports to the U.S. surged [12]. - In the medium term, as tariffs take effect, profit margins for companies reliant on imported raw materials will be squeezed, leading to reduced capital expenditure and declining consumer confidence [15]. - Long-term effects may include a restructuring of global supply chains as companies seek to mitigate costs and risks, potentially leading to a decrease in U.S.-China trade and a shift towards regionalization [18]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Companies in high-risk export industries, such as home appliances, automotive, and textiles, should be avoided due to their vulnerability to profit margin compression from tariffs [19]. - Focus should be on brand-name consumer goods with strong pricing power, as these companies can often pass on costs to consumers, mitigating the impact of tariffs [22]. - Industries with localized production capabilities, such as HVAC systems and large appliances, are less sensitive to tariff fluctuations and should be prioritized for investment [23]. - Sectors driven by domestic consumption, like food and beverage, exhibit relative stability and should be considered for medium to long-term investment [24]. - Technology and high-end manufacturing sectors, particularly those with domestic substitution potential, are key areas for investment focus [25]. - Resilient consumer sectors, including low-cost, high-frequency items and elder care products, are expected to perform well despite economic uncertainties [26].

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Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 18.25 [1][7]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of CNY 28.68 billion for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.9%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 5.5% to CNY 3.01 billion, resulting in a net profit margin of 10.5% [1][3]. - The company declared a final dividend of CNY 0.2073 per share, bringing the total annual dividend to CNY 0.5848 per share, with a payout ratio of 50%, an increase of 5 percentage points year-on-year [1][3]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Growth**: The company achieved a total revenue of CNY 28,676 million in 2024, with a projected growth of 3.5% in 2025 and 1.0% in 2026 [3][10]. - **Net Profit**: The net profit for 2024 was CNY 3,013 million, with a forecasted decline of 9.1% in 2025, followed by a recovery of 10.8% in 2026 [3][9]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: The EPS for 2024 was CNY 1.17, expected to decrease to CNY 1.06 in 2025, before rising to CNY 1.17 in 2026 and CNY 1.29 in 2027 [3][9]. - **Valuation Ratios**: The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 11.9 in 2024, increasing to 13.1 in 2025, and then decreasing to 11.8 in 2026 and 10.8 in 2027 [3][9]. Product and Channel Strategy - **Product Focus**: The company is concentrating on core categories, with a 30%-40% increase in product matrix width and a focus on professional products, which accounted for approximately 60% of revenue in 2024 [7]. - **Channel Performance**: - Wholesale channel revenue increased by 2.6% to CNY 12.9 billion, with 4,820 wholesale stores by the end of 2024. - Direct sales channel revenue slightly decreased by 0.3% to CNY 6.9 billion, with 1,297 direct sales stores. - E-commerce channel revenue grew by 10.3% to CNY 8.3 billion, indicating strong online performance [7]. Future Outlook - The management anticipates that revenue will remain stable in 2025, with a high single-digit net profit margin. The company has become the official sportswear partner for the Chinese Olympic Committee and the Chinese sports delegation, which is expected to enhance brand value [7].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The industry is expected to maintain a mid-single-digit growth rate over the next three years, driven by increased sports participation due to the national fitness initiative, rising consumer demands for comfort and functionality, and higher penetration rates of sports apparel and footwear [1] - Current sports participation rate in China is below mature markets, with the U.S. at 79%, Japan at 56%, and South Korea at 62%. China's participation rate is currently below 50%, having increased by 19 percentage points over the past six years, indicating significant room for growth [1] - Per capita spending on sports footwear and apparel in China is $39, which is 3 to 11 times lower than that of mature markets [1] Competitive Landscape - The sports footwear and apparel industry maintains a high concentration but is continuously evolving, allowing opportunities for smaller brands to emerge during shifts in sports trends [3] - Nike and Adidas hold the top two market shares in China at 16% and 9%, respectively, while domestic brands like Anta and Li Ning are gaining ground [4] - Anta's market share has surpassed Adidas, reaching 11%, while Li Ning holds 9% [4] - The outdoor segment is experiencing high demand, with niche brands like Hoka and Salomon gaining market share [5] Brand Performance - Domestic brands are now on par with international brands in terms of functionality, with Li Ning being a pioneer in establishing a systematic product approach [6] - Anta has developed a strong product matrix in outdoor and trail running shoes, leveraging its group’s technology reserves [7] - 361 Degrees and Xtep are focusing on niche markets, with Xtep successfully positioning itself as a marathon specialist [7] Market Dynamics - Domestic brands are focusing on lower-tier markets for growth, as international brands like Adidas also seek to expand into these segments [8] - The need for differentiation in product offerings and channel strategies is crucial for brands entering lower-tier markets [9] Company-Specific Insights - Anta's sales and discount rates have remained stable, with a projected revenue growth of 13% in 2024 and a high single-digit growth in 2025 [10] - Profit forecasts for Anta are cautious, with expected profits of approximately 3 billion in 2024 and 2.82 billion in 2025, reflecting a slight decline [13] - 361 Degrees is expected to see revenue growth of 10% to 15% in 2025, with a profit increase of 15% [14] - Xtep is projected to benefit from divesting underperforming businesses, leading to a positive impact on profits [14] Conclusion - The long-term outlook for the sports footwear and apparel industry remains positive, with domestic brands poised to capture more market share [17] - Anta is highlighted as a leading multi-brand sports goods group with global ambitions, while international brands like Adidas and Nike are also expected to benefit from strategic changes in their operations [16]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the recovery of credit demand in March, indicating a potential stabilization in the economy, although the impact of exports has yet to be fully realized [5] - The report suggests that monetary easing remains essential for sustaining domestic demand, with interest rates expected to trend downward [5] - The semiconductor industry is poised for growth due to stricter origin rules, which may favor domestic chip manufacturers [7] Macroeconomic Overview - In Q1, exports increased by 5.8% year-on-year, with March showing a significant 12.4% rise, attributed to a low base effect and resilient external demand [3] - Imports, however, fell by 7% year-on-year, primarily due to declining commodity prices and weak domestic demand [3] - The overall tariff rate imposed by the U.S. on Chinese goods is approximately 105.6%, which could negatively impact China's exports by 8.5-10.7 percentage points [3] Fixed Income Analysis - The report notes a gradual recovery in the yield curve, with R007 dropping to 1.7%, the lowest since January 10, indicating a more accommodative stance from the central bank [5] - The report highlights that the spread between deposit certificates and funding costs has turned positive, suggesting further declines in deposit rates [5] Industry Insights Textile and Apparel - 361 Degrees reported a strong performance in Q1 2025, with adult apparel sales increasing by 10-15% and e-commerce sales growing by 35-40% [8] - The company is expected to maintain a robust growth trajectory, with projected net profits of 1.31 billion, 1.49 billion, and 1.66 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [8] Healthcare - Kaili Medical's revenue for 2024 was 2.014 billion yuan, down 5.02% year-on-year, with a significant drop in net profit due to industry restructuring and increased competition [9] - The company is focusing on high-end product development, with expectations of revenue growth of 20.7%, 19.6%, and 19.7% for 2025-2027 [10] Social Services - China Youth Travel Service is projected to achieve revenues of 10.6 billion, 11.3 billion, and 12 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, benefiting from the recovery in outbound tourism [13] Consumer Electronics - Edifier reported a revenue increase of 9.27% year-on-year for 2024, with a focus on brand building and new product investments [14] - The company anticipates revenues of 3.40 billion, 3.96 billion, and 4.63 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [16] Home Appliances - Ninebot's two-wheeler business continues to grow, with a 76.6% increase in sales volume, while its robotics segment saw a 323.5% increase in sales [18] - The company expects net profits of 1.63 billion, 2.24 billion, and 2.89 billion yuan for 2025-2027, driven by growth in both segments [18]