美国新泽西运输公司及其机车工程师达成协议，结束了为期三天的运输罢工。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral investment rating for the U.S. stock market [1] Core Insights - The U.S. stock market is experiencing a steady recovery, led by the technology sector, with the S&P 500 rising by 5.3% and the Nasdaq increasing by 7.2% [3] - Significant capital inflows have been observed, particularly in the semiconductor and automotive sectors, indicating strong investor interest [4] - Earnings expectations for the S&P 500 constituents have been slightly adjusted upwards, with traditional industries showing the most significant upward revisions [5] Summary by Sections Price Trends - The S&P 500 increased by 5.3% and the Nasdaq by 7.2% this week, with the automotive and semiconductor sectors leading the gains at +16.2% and +13.3% respectively [3] Capital Flows - Estimated capital inflows for the S&P 500 constituents reached +$25.71 billion this week, a significant increase from the previous week's +$2.99 billion [4] - The semiconductor sector saw the highest inflow at +$9.17 billion, followed by automotive at +$6.59 billion [18] Earnings Forecasts - The dynamic F12M EPS expectations for the S&P 500 were adjusted up by 0.1%, with 19 sectors seeing upward revisions, particularly real estate (+0.7%) and materials (+0.5%) [5]

Group 1 - The report introduces a "two-step" framework to analyze the funding landscape of the Hong Kong stock market, categorizing funds into long-term and short-term foreign capital, domestic capital, and Hong Kong capital [1][8][9] - Despite a marginal decline in the proportion of foreign capital, it continues to dominate the Hong Kong stock market, accounting for over 60% of the total funding, with stable foreign capital holding approximately 11.6 trillion HKD and flexible foreign capital around 5.2 trillion HKD as of May 13, 2025 [19][22][24] - The report highlights a significant increase in the proportion of southbound funds, which have gained marginal pricing power in the Hong Kong market, with their market value share rising from 8% in September 2020 to 20% by May 2025 [24][25][38] Group 2 - The trading behaviors of different funding types in the Hong Kong stock market exhibit clear differences, with stable foreign capital favoring long-term holdings, while flexible foreign capital tends to engage in short-term speculation [30][31] - Southbound funds show a lower turnover rate and a tendency to buy on dips, indicating a contrarian investment strategy, with a negative correlation between their net buying and the Hang Seng Index's performance [31][37] - Recent trends indicate that since March 2025, while foreign capital has been flowing out, southbound funds have been consistently flowing in, with a record net purchase of 356 billion HKD on April 9, 2025 [37][38]

将 2025 年实际 GDP 增长预测上调至 4.6%(高于市场共识)，2026 年预测为 3.8%(此前分别为 4.0% 和 3.5%)。 新的实际关税税率是多少? 日内瓦贸易谈判结果超出高盛的预期，团队相应上调了经济预测。要点总结： 新的 GDP 预测数据是多少? 高盛估计，目前美国对中国的实际关税税率约为 39%(低于此前的 107%)，其中包括 2018-19 年的 11 个百分点，以及自今年年初以来的 28 个百分点。美国对中国实际关税增加的 28 个百分点，主要包括与芬太尼相关的关税 20 个百分点、互惠关税 8 个百分点(经近期回调 和行业豁免调整后)，以及对钢铁、铝和汽车的小额征税。 这对出口有何影响? 尽管路径仍不确定，但高盛现在预计 2025/26 年中国实际出口大致持平(此前为每年 - 5%，而当美国对中国的实际关税在 4 月中旬迅速 升至 100% 以上时，预测为 - 10%)。 货币方面呢? (12 个月预测：美元兑人民币汇率为 7.0)：由于贸易顺差可能保持强劲，根据高盛外汇团队模型的平均计算，人民币被显著低估了 20% 以上，且美元普遍走弱，预计中国人民银行将开始允许人民币对美元 ...

据悉，"2025海外榜TOP50"是对所有2025年1月1日之前在全球上市的中国内地公司进行测评后，选取海外品牌价值居前的50家公司。 每经记者｜黄博文 每经编辑｜张海妮 5月9日，第九个中国品牌日前夕，由每日经济新闻主办、清华大学经济管理学院中国企业研究中心提供学术支持的"2025第九届中国上市公司品牌价值榜发 布会"在上海举行。 会上发布了"2025中国上市公司品牌价值海外榜TOP50"（以下简称"2025海外榜TOP50"）。数据显示，"2025海外榜TOP50"的总体海外品牌价值为24732.55 亿元，同比增长19.8%。其中，腾讯控股（HK00700）位居第一，海外品牌价值达到2565.23亿元。此外，共有15个行业的企业进入榜单，其中，家电合计海 外品牌价值最高，达到3854.59亿元。 腾讯控股位居第一，海外品牌价值增至2565亿元 图片来源：《2025中国上市公司品牌价值榜分析报告》 具体到行业分层情况，可分成3个梯队：第一梯队中，有2个行业海外品牌价值超过3000亿元，即家电和电子行业，合计海外品牌价值为7280.59亿元，占比 29.4%；第二梯队中，有8个行业海外品牌价值在1000亿元 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve maintained the short-term interest rate at 4.25% to 4.50%, aligning with market expectations, while acknowledging increased uncertainty in the economic outlook due to high unemployment and inflation risks [1] - The first quarter saw a significant 41.3% surge in imports, negatively impacting GDP growth, with net exports contributing to a -4.83% growth rate [2] - Many companies have suspended guidance on second-quarter revenue forecasts, indicating a more pessimistic view of the economy compared to Federal Reserve officials [2][3] Group 2 - The second quarter's GDP is critical, with a potential shift from positive to negative contributions from inventory, increasing the likelihood of economic contraction [3] - Employment figures appear strong, but there are concerns about the reliability of the data, as the actual experience of the public may differ from reported statistics [3][4] - The retail sector is facing challenges with inventory levels, as many businesses only have enough stock to last two months, raising concerns about inflation rebounding [5] Group 3 - The U.S. government’s trade negotiations are crucial, with recent agreements being largely symbolic and insufficient to address the urgent economic issues [5][6] - The upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) report will provide early insights into the impact of new tariffs on price trends [6]

Core Viewpoint - The current wait-and-see approach of the Federal Reserve is deemed reasonable due to the potential impacts of tariffs and the uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook [1][4]. Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25%-4.5%, marking the third consecutive meeting without changes [2]. - Economic indicators show a divergence, with the first quarter of 2025 experiencing a contraction in GDP for the first time in three years, primarily due to businesses rushing to import goods to avoid tariffs [2]. - The unemployment rate remains low at 4.2%, indicating a resilient labor market that has yet to reflect the impacts of tariffs [2]. Inflation Concerns - Although CPI and PCE data have not yet shown upward trends, soft indicators such as consumer inflation expectations and price indices in manufacturing and services have significantly increased, indicating future inflation risks [3]. - The large-scale "reciprocal tariffs" announced by Trump have been paused for 90 days, but the outlook remains unclear, negatively affecting business and consumer confidence [3]. Federal Reserve's Strategy - Jerome Powell emphasized a "wait and see" approach, stating that the cost of waiting is currently the lowest, and highlighted the challenges posed by tariffs to the Fed's dual mandate of maximum employment and a 2% inflation target [3][4]. - The Fed's independence is under threat, with external pressures from the Trump administration potentially impacting the credibility of the dollar [4]. - Market expectations for the timing of the first rate cut have shifted from June to July, with projections for a total of three rate cuts remaining intact for the year [4].

国外 1. 高盛：黄金的表现将继续优于白银 周一，高盛在一份报告中称，黄金将继续跑赢白银，央行需求强劲是推高金银价格比的一个因素。因 此，该行预计白银不会赶上目前正在持续的黄金涨势。高盛还表示，如果经济衰退发生，估计ETF资金 流入的加速将推动黄金价格到年底达到3880美元。该行重申对黄金的结构性看涨观点，基本预期年底金 价为每盎司3700美元，到2026年中期则达4000美元。 2. 高盛：美联储不太可能因为"软数据"疲弱就降息 美国消费者和企业调查显示出一种焦虑的经济情绪，但基础数据尚未显示经济严重放缓。高盛经济学家 写道，美联储不太可能仅根据"软数据"就放松政策，尤其是因为在最近的过去，软数据错误地预示着衰 退即将来临，比如美联储在2022年抗击通胀期间。高盛的团队写道，美联储"在降息之前，也希望看到 劳动力市场和其他硬数据的证据"。这家投行和华尔街其他机构一样，相信美联储将在周三的利率决议 中保持利率不变。 3. 大摩：美联储不会先发制人 摩根士丹利由首席美国经济学家Michael Gapen领衔的分析师团队在一份研报中写道："鉴于美联储预计 通胀将保持坚挺，且关税冲击可能会产生持续的通胀效应，美联储 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the crackdown on tax fraud related to small-scale taxpayer tax benefits, emphasizing the importance of maintaining a fair market environment and the consequences of tax evasion [1][3][4]. Group 1: Tax Fraud Cases - The tax authorities in various regions, including Anhui, Xinjiang, and Dalian, have exposed three significant cases of tax fraud involving small-scale taxpayer benefits [1][2][4]. - In the first case, a recycling company in Anhui was found to have set up 85 fake businesses to split income and falsely claim tax benefits, resulting in a tax shortfall of 2.1584 million yuan [1]. - The second case involved a transportation company in Xinjiang that registered multiple individual businesses to evade taxes, leading to a tax shortfall of 619,700 yuan [2]. - The third case involved a beauty salon in Dalian that concealed income to improperly benefit from tax reductions, resulting in a tax shortfall of 627,600 yuan [2]. Group 2: Regulatory Response - The article emphasizes the government's commitment to rigorously combat tax fraud and ensure that tax benefits are accurately allocated to eligible taxpayers [3][4]. - Experts warn that businesses engaging in tax evasion risk severe penalties, including back taxes, fines, and damage to their tax credit status, which can affect their ability to obtain financing and enjoy other benefits [3]. - The recent cases indicate a trend towards stricter tax regulation and enforcement, with tax authorities increasingly relying on big data to identify irregular tax behaviors [3][4].

美国知名投资人巴菲特宣布年底卸任公司首席执行官 上周六，在伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司股东大会上，94岁的巴菲特在问答环节尾声宣布，计划今年年底辞去 公司首席执行官一职。巴菲特还严厉批评特朗普政府的关税和贸易保护主义政策，强调"贸易不应该是 武器"。另外，他认为美国政府不负责任的财政政策可能会削弱美元的价值，并表示不会投资大幅贬值 的货币。当天，公司公布2025年第一季度财报，经营利润同比大幅下跌，由于其业务涵盖运输、能源、 零售等多个领域，公司警告称关税或进一步影响利润。 【#上周国际金价跌超1%##本周美联储将公布利率决议#】首先来看美国资本市场的情况。上周，随着 美国政府频频释放与部分贸易伙伴推进谈判的信号，叠加美国4月份非农就业数据好于预期，暂时缓解 市场对经济衰退的担忧。美国三大股指连续第二周收高，其中道指上涨3%，标普500指数上涨2.92%， 纳指上涨3.42%。截至上周收盘，标普500指数和纳指已抹平今年4月2日特朗普宣布所谓"对等关税"以来 的跌幅。 上周国际油价下跌 原油市场方面，上周"欧佩克+ "将协商产量政策的会议提前举行，商讨6月增产计划，叠加美国原油库 存增加，引发市场对原油供应过剩的担忧 ...