Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views - The copper price is expected to fluctuate around 78,000 yuan, with subsequent inventory accumulation likely to be slow due to strong support from the current fundamentals and macro - environment [1] - The aluminum price is expected to rebound with inventory reduction, and the calendar spread long - position can be held if the absolute price drops [1] - For zinc, it is recommended to short at high prices and consider partial profit - taking for the domestic - foreign calendar spread long - position [2] - Opportunities for narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio can be continuously monitored [3] - The stainless - steel market is expected to oscillate in the short term [3] - The lead price is expected to oscillate between 16,600 and 16,900 yuan next week, with supply expected to decrease in May [6] - For tin, it is advisable to wait and see in the short term and look for high - short opportunities in the long term [8] - The industrial silicon price is expected to oscillate at the bottom, anchored to the cash - flow cost of leading large factories in the long run [9] - The lithium carbonate price is expected to decline after oscillation in the short term and remain weakly oscillating in the medium - long term [9] Group 3: Summary by Metals Copper - Domestic inventory continued to increase slightly this week. The earthquake in the Kamoa mining area may affect this year's production. The Manyer smelter in Indonesia will resume production, which may affect the domestic TC. The domestic copper consumption shows resilience, and the price is expected to oscillate around 78,000 yuan [1] Aluminum - Supply increased slightly, and the demand decline in May - June is not obvious. There is still a supply - demand gap, and inventory is expected to decline gently from May to July. The aluminum price is expected to rebound with inventory reduction [1] Zinc - The zinc price oscillated this week. Supply - side TC remained unchanged, and smelting maintenance decreased slightly. Demand - side domestic demand has limited elasticity, and overseas demand has slightly recovered. The inventory accumulation inflection point is expected to appear in early June [2] Nickel - The supply of pure nickel remains high, and imports from Russia increased in April. Demand is weak, and overseas inventory increased slightly. Opportunities for narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio can be monitored [3] Stainless Steel - Production increased seasonally in April, and steel mills may cut production passively in May. Demand is mainly for rigid needs, and inventory increased slightly in Xijiao and Foshan. The market is expected to oscillate in the short term [3] Lead - The lead price oscillated downward this week. Supply - side recycling and smelting have issues, and demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate between 16,600 and 16,900 yuan next week [6] Tin - The tin price oscillated narrowly this week. Supply - side domestic production may be affected by processing fees, and overseas production has resumed. Demand is weak, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term and look for high - short opportunities in the long term [8] Industrial Silicon - The overall start - up rate increased slightly this week. The market is at a low level, and inventory is gradually decreasing. The price is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the long run [9] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate price rebounded after a decline this week. Supply - side production and inventory changes are complex, and demand is weak. The price is expected to decline after oscillation in the short term and remain weakly oscillating in the medium - long term [9]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices are currently fluctuating around 78,000 yuan, with the current fundamentals and macro - environment strongly supporting electrolytic copper. Aluminum prices are expected to rebound with inventory reduction, and long - short spreads in the month can be held if the absolute price drops. Zinc prices are oscillating, and it is recommended to short at high prices and partially take profit on long - short spreads. Nickel - stainless steel ratio contraction opportunities can be continuously monitored. Stainless steel is expected to oscillate in the short term. Lead is expected to oscillate between 16,600 - 16,900 yuan next week. Tin is recommended to be observed in the short term and high - short opportunities should be monitored in the long term. Industrial silicon is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the long term. Lithium carbonate prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the medium - long term and decline after oscillation next week [1][2][3][6][8][10][11] Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - **Market Data**: From May 19 - 23, the spot premium of Shanghai copper decreased by 35, the waste - refined copper spread decreased by 40, and the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 1,652 [1] - **Supply**: Due to the earthquake in the Kamoa mining area, some mining areas stopped production, which may affect this year's output. The Manyer smelter in Indonesia will start feeding and resuming production in early June, which may improve the shortage of electrolytic copper premiums in Southeast Asia but have an adverse impact on domestic TC [1] - **Demand**: The consumption of domestic electrolytic copper shows resilience. The State Grid has issued the second batch of tenders this year, and the cable consumption and orders in the remaining time of the second quarter are expected to be strong. However, the consumption of several sectors shows a weakening trend [1] Aluminum - **Market Data**: From May 19 - 23, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price increased by 10 yuan, the Yangtze River aluminum ingot price increased by 20 yuan, and the domestic alumina price increased by 59 yuan [1] - **Supply and Demand**: Supply has increased slightly, and the import of aluminum ingots from January to April was large. The demand from May to June is not expected to decline significantly, and there is still a supply - demand gap. The inventory is expected to be slowly reduced from May to July [1] Zinc - **Market Data**: From May 19 - 23, the spot premium decreased by 10, the Shanghai zinc ingot price increased by 60, and the LME zinc inventory decreased by 2,725 [2] - **Supply and Demand**: Supply: Domestic TC and imported TC remained unchanged this week, and the smelting maintenance in May decreased slightly compared with the previous month. Demand: Domestic demand has limited elasticity, and overseas demand has slightly recovered. The domestic social inventory is slowly increasing, and the inflection point of accelerated inventory accumulation is expected to appear in early June [2] Nickel - **Market Data**: From May 19 - 23, the price of 1.5% Philippine nickel ore remained unchanged, and the Shanghai nickel spot price decreased by 150 [3] - **Supply and Demand**: Supply: The production of pure nickel remains at a high level, and the import of Russian nickel increased in April. Demand: Overall demand is weak. Inventory: Overseas nickel plate inventory has slightly increased, and domestic inventory remains stable [3] Stainless Steel - **Market Data**: From May 19 - 23, the price of 304 cold - rolled coil remained unchanged, and the price of 201 cold - rolled coil decreased by 100 [6] - **Supply and Demand**: Supply: Production increased seasonally in April, and steel mills may cut production passively in May. Demand: It is mainly driven by rigid demand. Cost: The prices of ferronickel and ferrochrome remain stable. Inventory: The inventory in Xijiao and Foshan has slightly increased [6] Lead - **Market Data**: From May 19 - 23, the spot premium decreased by 30, and the LME lead inventory increased by 47,675 [7][8] - **Supply and Demand**: Supply: The scrap volume is weak year - on - year. Middle - stream recycling smelters have concentrated production capacity, and the demand for waste batteries is tight. Demand: Battery export orders have slightly declined, and overall demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate between 16,600 - 16,900 yuan next week [8] Tin - **Market Data**: From May 19 - 23, the spot import profit decreased by 3,040.30, and the LME tin inventory remained unchanged [10] - **Supply and Demand**: Supply: The short - term resumption of production in Myanmar's Wa State requires negotiation. The domestic Jiangxi region has partially cut production, and the Yunnan region is struggling to maintain production. Demand: The elasticity of solder consumption is limited, and the downstream lacks the motivation to further destock. It is recommended to observe in the short term and monitor high - short opportunities in the long term [10] Industrial Silicon - **Market Data**: From May 19 - 23, the 421 Yunnan basis decreased by 35, and the 421 Sichuan basis decreased by 35 [11] - **Supply and Demand**: Supply: The overall start - up has slightly increased. Demand: The demand for silicone and polysilicon is declining. The supply - demand is in a tight balance, and social inventory has started to be reduced. In the long term, it is expected to oscillate at the bottom [11] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Data**: From May 19 - 23, the SMM electric carbon price remained unchanged, and the SMM industrial carbon price remained unchanged [11] - **Supply and Demand**: Supply: The production lines of Tianqi and Yahua have resumed work, and small recycling plants have intensified production cuts. Demand: Downstream demand is weak, and the demand improvement by policies is less than expected. In the medium - long term, prices are expected to oscillate weakly and decline after oscillation next week [11]

2025年05月23日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 观点与策略 | 镍：镍矿矛盾托底，转产经济性或限制上方估值 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：成本底部空间清晰，上行缺乏实质驱动 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：非矿政策风险扰动，基本面偏弱制约上方空间 | 4 | | 工业硅：整体走势仍偏弱 | 6 | | 多晶硅：市场情绪发酵，关注上方空间 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 2025 年 5 月 23 日 镍：镍矿矛盾托底，转产经济性或限制上方估值 不锈钢：成本底部空间清晰，上行缺乏实质驱动 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 期货研究 【基本面跟踪】 商 品 研 究 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 123,400 | 120 | -200 | -200 ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - **Report Industry Investment Ratings**: Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views - **Nickel**: Nickel ore contradictions provide a bottom support, while the economics of conversion may limit the upside valuation [2][4] - **Stainless Steel**: The cost bottom space is clear, but there is a lack of substantial drivers for upward movement [2][4] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Lithium salt plant production cuts have not affected the resource end, and the upside remains under pressure [2][10] - **Industrial Silicon**: The weak pattern persists [2][13] - **Polysilicon**: There is a build - up of warehouse receipts, and attention should be paid to market sentiment changes [2][13] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 123,280, with a decrease of 1,950 compared to T - 5. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,870, down 210 from T - 5. Other data such as trading volume, spot prices, and spreads also showed various changes [4] - **Macro and Industry News**: Indonesia adjusted the resource tax rates for nickel - related products; Canada's Ontario Province may stop exporting nickel to the US; an Indonesian nickel - iron project entered the trial production stage; a nickel smelter in Indonesia resumed production; the Philippines may ban nickel ore exports [4][5][7] Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the 2507 contract was 61,100, down 4,100 from T - 5. There were also changes in trading volume, open interest, and various price differentials and raw material prices [10] - **Macro and Industry News**: Ford allowed Nissan to use part of the capacity of its battery factory; a lithium salt enterprise in Jiangxi planned to shut down a plant for maintenance, affecting monthly production by about 1,500 tons [12] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data**: The Si2507 closing price was 7,865, down 625 from T - 5. The PS2507 closing price was 35,860, down 2,560 from T - 5. There were also changes in trading volume, open interest, price differentials, inventory, and raw material costs [13] - **Macro and Industry News**: At the 2024 annual general meeting of Tongwei Co., Ltd., the company expressed confidence in the development of the photovoltaic industry [13][15] Trend Intensity - **Nickel**: Trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view [9] - **Stainless Steel**: Trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view [9] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Trend intensity is - 1, indicating a slightly bearish view [12] - **Industrial Silicon**: Trend intensity is - 1, indicating a slightly bearish view [15] - **Polysilicon**: Trend intensity is - 1, indicating a slightly bearish view [15]

2025年05月21日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 观点与策略 | 镍：镍矿矛盾托底，转产经济性或限制上方估值 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：成本底部空间清晰，上行缺乏实质驱动 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：弱势震荡，关注矿端成交情况 | 4 | | 工业硅：基本面弱势格局，逢高布空 | 6 | | 多晶硅：仓单环比增加，关注市场情绪变动 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 5 月 21 日 镍：镍矿矛盾托底，转产经济性或限制上方估值 不锈钢：成本底部空间清晰，上行缺乏实质驱动 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 2）3 月 3 日加拿大安大略省省长福特针对美国关税威胁，提出安大略省的矿产也是关税斗争的关键， 或将停止向美国出口镍。 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 2 期货研究 商 品 研 究 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T- ...

Report Overview - Report Date: May 19, 2025 - Report Title: Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Green Finance and New Energy - Report Focus: Nickel, stainless steel, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and polysilicon futures 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views - **Nickel**: Nickel ore contradictions provide a bottom support, while conversion economics may limit the upside valuation [2][4] - **Stainless Steel**: The cost bottom space is clear, but there is a lack of substantial drivers for upward movement [2][4] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The cost curve continues to decline, and the trend may remain weak [2][10] - **Industrial Silicon**: It is in a weak pattern, and attention should be paid to upstream supply changes [2][14] - **Polysilicon**: Demand has declined, and the futures price has also maintained a downward trend [2][14] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Nickel and Stainless Steel 3.1.1 Fundamental Data - **Nickel**: Shanghai Nickel main contract closing price was 124,060 yuan, with other indicators showing various changes over different time periods [4] - **Stainless Steel**: Stainless steel main contract closing price was 12,965 yuan, and trading volume and other indicators also changed [4] 3.1.2 Macro and Industry News - Indonesia increased resource tax rates for nickel products, and the new policy took effect on April 26 [4] - Canada's Ontario Province may stop exporting nickel to the US [5] - Indonesia's CNI nickel - iron project entered the trial production stage, and a nickel smelter in Indonesia resumed production [7] - The Philippines is discussing a nickel ore export ban, but the authenticity and start time are uncertain [7] - The US and China reached an agreement on tariff reduction during the Geneva economic and trade talks [8] 3.1.3 Trend Intensity - Nickel trend intensity: 0; Stainless steel trend intensity: 0 [9] 3.2 Lithium Carbonate 3.2.1 Fundamental Data - The closing prices of 2507 and 2509 contracts decreased, and trading volume and open interest showed different trends [10] - Spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased [11] 3.2.2 Macro and Industry News - Sigma Lithium reported good performance in Q1 2025 and is promoting the construction of its No. 2 plant [13] - In April, China's power battery loading volume decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year, with different trends for ternary and lithium - iron - phosphate batteries [13] 3.2.3 Trend Intensity - Lithium carbonate trend intensity: - 1 [13] 3.3 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon 3.3.1 Fundamental Data - **Industrial Silicon**: Si2507 contract closing price decreased, and trading volume, open interest, and other indicators changed [14] - **Polysilicon**: PS2506 contract closing price decreased, and trading volume and open interest also changed [14] - Inventory, cost, and price data of industrial silicon and polysilicon also showed specific changes [14] 3.3.2 Macro and Industry News - The National Energy Group terminated the tender for a 500MW photovoltaic project component equipment procurement due to large price changes in the photovoltaic component market [14] 3.3.3 Trend Intensity - Industrial silicon trend intensity: - 1; Polysilicon trend intensity: - 1 [16]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The long - term upward trend of copper remains intact, with high - level volatility. The 2025 annual average price is expected to be around $9400, higher than in 2024. Trade negotiations and global trade order are key concerns [2][8]. - Aluminum prices are relatively high, with the supply growth rate expected to decline in 2025. The price may be high in the first half and low in the second half, and macro factors may amplify price fluctuations [9][15]. - Zinc consumption has a weak outlook, and the price is expected to range between RMB 21,000 - 25,500 per ton for SHFE zinc and $2500 - 3300 per ton for LME zinc [17][36]. - Tin fundamentals are strong, and prices are expected to remain high - level volatile. The estimated price range is RMB 236,000 - 305,000 per ton for SHFE tin and $29,000 - 38,000 per ton for LME tin [37][48]. - For nickel, supply is in surplus, and costs are rising. The price of SHFE nickel is expected to have difficulty breaking through the RMB 120,000 - 130,000 per ton range [53][69]. - Lithium prices are expected to oscillate widely at the bottom, with a core price range of RMB 60,000 - 90,000 per ton [90]. - Gold prices may continue to hit new highs, with international prices predicted to reach $4000 - 4100 per ounce and domestic prices to reach RMB 920 - 950 per gram [91][103]. - Silver prices are likely to fluctuate at a high level, driven by multiple attributes [103][110]. - The industrial silicon futures market is developing steadily, and the industry is facing supply - demand imbalance, with supply exceeding demand expected to continue in 2025 [111][117]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Market - **Global Supply and Demand**: In 2024, the growth of global copper concentrate production was lower than that of demand. In 2025, many mining companies lowered production targets. The shortage of copper concentrate supply will take time to ease, and overseas medium - and long - term refined copper demand is expected to grow [2]. - **China's Supply and Demand**: Domestic scrap copper direct utilization is decreasing, and supply is expected to be tight in 2025. Refined copper production growth is constrained by raw material supply, and terminal demand is driven by power grids, home appliances, and automobiles, while the real estate sector is a drag [3][6]. - **Macro - market Analysis**: Capital inflows into copper due to its industrial and financial attributes. Trump's potential 25% tariff on copper would increase short - term price volatility and change the global supply chain [7]. - **Price Forecast**: The long - term upward trend of copper remains, but short - term policy uncertainty has a great impact. The 2025 annual average price is expected to be around $9400, higher than in 2024 [8]. Aluminum Market - **Supply Analysis**: Future new electrolytic aluminum projects are mainly in Asia. China's production growth rate will slow down in 2025, and global production growth may decline. China's imports may also decrease [10][11]. - **Demand Analysis**: Aluminum consumption growth may slow down in 2025, with exports expected to decline and domestic demand growth difficult to improve [12]. - **Price Forecast**: As long as China's production ceiling is not lifted, there is price support, but cost reduction and weak demand limit the upside. Prices may be high in the first half and low in the second half [15]. Zinc Market - **Supply Analysis**: Zinc concentrate production has been declining, but exploration investment is slowly recovering. Import volume has increased, and processing fees have rebounded [18][23]. - **Demand Analysis**: Overseas zinc consumption in various fields is still weak, while domestic consumption shows resilience, but there are potential impacts from tariffs on exports [30][31]. - **Price Forecast**: The price is expected to range between RMB 21,000 - 25,500 per ton for SHFE zinc and $2500 - 3300 per ton for LME zinc [36]. Tin Market - **2024 Market Analysis**: In 2024, tin prices rose, inventories decreased, production increased, and consumption improved [37][38]. - **2025 Trend Outlook**: Global tin ore supply may decline in 2025, and there will be a shortage of over 20,000 tons. The price is expected to remain high - level volatile [41][44]. - **Price Forecast**: The estimated price range is RMB 236,000 - 305,000 per ton for SHFE tin and $29,000 - 38,000 per ton for LME tin [48]. Nickel Market - **Supply and Demand**: Nickel ore supply is mainly from Indonesia. Supply is in surplus, and demand lacks highlights. China's stainless steel production supports nickel consumption [53][56]. - **Cost and Price**: The cost of the nickel industry is rising, and the price of SHFE nickel is expected to have difficulty breaking through the RMB 120,000 - 130,000 per ton range [60][69]. Lithium Market - **Supply and Demand**: In 2025, lithium supply is increasing, and demand is also high. There is a surplus in the market, but the surplus is narrowing [75][84]. - **Price Forecast**: Lithium prices are expected to oscillate widely at the bottom, with a core price range of RMB 60,000 - 90,000 per ton [90]. Gold Market - **Market Review**: From 2018 - 2025, various factors such as trade frictions and geopolitical conflicts have stimulated the rise of gold prices [91]. - **Price Forecast**: International gold prices are predicted to reach $4000 - 4100 per ounce, and domestic prices to reach RMB 920 - 950 per gram [103]. Silver Market - **Fundamentals**: In 2024, global silver supply increased, and demand decreased. In 2025, the supply shortage is expected to further narrow [103]. - **Price Forecast**: Silver prices are likely to fluctuate at a high level, driven by multiple attributes [110]. Silicon Market - **Futures Market**: The industrial silicon and polysilicon futures markets are developing steadily, with increasing trading volume and participation [111][112]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: In 2025, the silicon industry is facing supply - demand imbalance, with supply exceeding demand expected to continue [114][117].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - For copper, the inventory depletion rate may continue to slow down, and attention should be paid to the consumption inflection point. The weekend's Sino-US negotiation rumors may boost market sentiment. For the month spread, the current inter - month positive spread has shown a large space, and subsequent upward momentum requires substantial shortages or a decline in absolute prices. [1] - For aluminum, supply has increased slightly, and the demand expectation in May does not decline significantly. There is still a supply - demand gap. It is recommended to wait and see on the absolute price, take profit on the aluminum internal - external reverse spread, and continue to hold the inter - month positive spread if the absolute price drops. [1] - For zinc, the zinc price center has moved down slightly in a volatile manner. It is in a situation of strong current reality and weak expectation. It is recommended to short at high prices, continue to hold the internal - external positive spread, and pay attention to the inter - month reverse spread opportunity after mid - May. [2] - For nickel, the short - term fundamental situation is weak, and there is still instability in tariffs and continuous disturbances at the mine end. Attention should be paid to Indonesia's tariff policy on China and the opportunity for the nickel - stainless steel price ratio to shrink. [4] - For stainless steel, the overall fundamentals remain weak, and under the influence of tariffs, the steel mill's profit is under pressure. The unilateral price is expected to be under pressure in the short term, and the reverse spread can be rolled over and continued to be held. [7] - For lead, the lead price is expected to oscillate between 16,700 and 16,900 next week, and the supply in May is expected to decrease cyclically. [8] - For tin, in the short term, the domestic raw material supply is still disturbed, and the fundamentals are expected to remain tight in the first half of the year. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and pay attention to short - selling opportunities in the medium - long term. [8] - For industrial silicon, the short - term supply - demand double - reduction pattern is obvious, and the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the medium - long term. [10] - For lithium carbonate, in the short - term, the downstream demand enters a small peak season, but the demand improvement is less than expected. In the medium - long term, the price is expected to oscillate weakly. [12] Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - **Market Data**: From May 8th to May 14th, the spot premium of Shanghai copper changed from 225 to - 35, the waste - refined copper price difference increased by 394, and the Shanghai copper warehouse receipt increased by 20,912. [1] - **Supply and Demand**: In April, China's copper concentrate imports increased. The demand shows a co - existence of strong current reality and weak expectation. The inventory depletion slope may continue to slow down. [1] Aluminum - **Market Data**: From May 8th to May 14th, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price increased by 195, the domestic alumina price increased by 12, and the spot import profit decreased by 132.42. [1] - **Supply and Demand**: Supply has increased slightly, and the demand expectation in May does not decline significantly. The inventory is expected to be depleted gently from May to July. [1] Zinc - **Market Data**: From May 8th to May 14th, the spot premium decreased by 120, the Shanghai zinc ingot price increased by 190, and the LME zinc inventory decreased by 900. [2] - **Supply and Demand**: The domestic TC increased slightly this week, and the smelting maintenance in May decreased slightly. The demand has limited impetus from the rush - installation stimulus. The domestic social inventory is at a low level, and the inflection point from inventory depletion to accumulation is expected to appear in mid - to late May. [2] Nickel - **Market Data**: From May 8th to May 14th, the price of 1.5% Philippine nickel ore decreased by 0.5, the Shanghai nickel spot price increased by 1,550, and the LME nickel inventory decreased by 84. [3] - **Supply and Demand**: The pure nickel production remains at a high level, the demand is weak, the overseas nickel plate inventory is slightly depleted, and the domestic inventory remains stable. [4] Stainless Steel - **Market Data**: From May 8th to May 14th, the price of 304 cold - rolled coil remained unchanged, and the price of waste stainless steel increased by 50. [7] - **Supply and Demand**: In April, the production increased seasonally, and steel mills may cut production passively in May. The demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the inventory in Xijiao and Foshan has increased after the festival. [7] Lead - **Market Data**: From May 8th to May 14th, the spot premium remained at - 120, the LME lead inventory decreased by 2,900. [8] - **Supply and Demand**: The supply is expected to decrease cyclically in May. The demand is weak, and the price is expected to oscillate between 16,700 and 16,900 next week. [8] Tin - **Market Data**: From May 8th to May 14th, the spot import profit increased by 2,537.61, the LME tin inventory decreased by 15. [8] - **Supply and Demand**: The supply side has some changes such as the复产 of African mines, and the demand side has a weakening expectation. The short - term fundamentals are tight, and the medium - long - term attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities. [8] Industrial Silicon - **Market Data**: From May 8th to May 14th, the 421 Yunnan basis decreased by 260, and the warehouse receipt quantity increased by 37. [10] - **Supply and Demand**: The short - term supply - demand double - reduction pattern is obvious, and the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the medium - long term. [10] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Data**: From May 8th to May 14th, the SMM electric carbon price increased by 100, the主力合约基差 decreased by 1,880, and the warehouse receipt quantity increased by 272. [12] - **Supply and Demand**: The short - term demand enters a small peak season, but the demand improvement is less than expected. In the medium - long term, the price is expected to oscillate weakly. [12]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Nickel - Short after a rebound [1] - Stainless steel - Hold [1] - Zinc - Bearish outlook [4] Core Views - **Nickel**: Despite a short - term rebound due to cost - related factors and market sentiment, the fundamental oversupply trend remains unchanged. The support from the mine end is not sustainable. Attention should be paid to the shipping situation in the Philippines after the rainy season and the demand difference between stainless steel and nickel due to US tariff policies [2]. - **Zinc**: The impact of tariffs has temporarily receded. In the short - term, the supply is changing from tight to loose, and in the medium - to long - term, the market remains in an oversupply state, with a bearish outlook [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro & Industry News - **Nickel**: In 2024, GreenMei achieved an operating income of 33.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.75%, and a net profit of 1.02 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 9.19%. The annual output of nickel metal was 51,677 tons, a year - on - year increase of 91%. The company has built a nickel resource production capacity of 150,000 tons per year in Indonesia [1]. - **Zinc**: The International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) predicts that in 2025, the global refined zinc supply will exceed demand by 93,000 tons. Global refined zinc demand is expected to grow by 1% to 13.64 million tons, and production will grow by 1.8% to 13.73 million tons [4]. Mine End - **Nickel**: Indonesia raised mining royalties on the 26th, and the price of nickel mines at the port of destination in the Philippines rebounded. Although the seasonal loosening of the nickel mine supply has not yet appeared, under normal circumstances, the possibility of the mine end turning loose is still high [1]. - **Zinc**: The profit of mining enterprises has been affected by tariff policies, but the TC price has not declined, indicating no production cuts at the mine end. Meanwhile, imports at the mine end have significantly recovered [4]. Smelting - **Nickel**: China's imports of pure nickel are relatively small, while domestic production has recovered rapidly. The total supply of domestic electrolytic nickel has decreased month - on - month but remains at a historically high level. The production cost of electrowinning nickel has risen to 124,000 yuan per ton [2]. - **Zinc**: The TC price at the smelting end has rebounded to 3,400 - 3,500 yuan per ton. The profit of integrated enterprises has shrunk but remains at a relatively high level. The static profit of pure smelting enterprises has turned negative again, but with by - product income, the profit has turned positive. The possibility of production cuts is extremely low [5]. Demand - **Nickel**: Stainless steel is not on the US tariff list, so its export demand may increase, which may form a strong - weak relationship with nickel. The relatively high price of nickel - iron has led to low profits for stainless steel manufacturers, which may affect subsequent production and reduce the demand for nickel [2]. - **Zinc**: The "Golden March and Silver April" demand peak season is coming to an end. The capacity utilization rate and output of galvanizing are not high, and manufacturers' production enthusiasm is low. The inventory of steel mills is low, while social inventory has started to accumulate. Galvanizing manufacturers' expectations for terminal demand are pessimistic, and the demand for zinc ingots is starting to decline [5].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the energy metals sector, particularly lithium, nickel, and cobalt companies, highlighting their financial performance and market dynamics in 2024 and early 2025 [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Financial Performance**: In 2024, Tianqi Lithium and Ganfeng Lithium reported losses of 7.9 billion yuan and 2.1 billion yuan respectively, primarily due to declining lithium prices. The industry's profitability is increasingly reliant on non-energy metal businesses or hedging strategies [1][2]. - **Market Recovery Signs**: By Q1 2025, there are indications of improvement in energy metal companies' performance, with Tianqi Lithium returning to profitability, suggesting a potential recovery despite ongoing challenges in the lithium market [3]. - **Lithium Market Dynamics**: The lithium market is facing downward pressure, with prices challenging the critical support level of 70,000 yuan. Recent prices for battery-grade lithium carbonate have dipped below this threshold, impacting the entire supply chain [4][9]. - **Cost Reduction Limitations**: The industry has exhausted many cost-cutting measures, with limited new strategies emerging. Projects like the lithium sulfate plant in Zimbabwe are being approached cautiously due to low price levels affecting investment decisions [5][8]. - **Nickel Market Outlook**: Nickel companies are expected to see improved performance in Q2 2024, benefiting from rising prices that have not yet fully reflected in stock valuations [6][7]. - **Cobalt Export Regulations**: The Democratic Republic of Congo's (DRC) cobalt export control policies are under evaluation, with potential extensions of export bans if pricing expectations are not met. This could significantly impact market dynamics and stock prices [12][13][15]. Additional Important Insights - **Supply Chain Challenges**: The DRC's export controls and the exit of major players like Zijin Mining complicate the nickel supply chain, leading to procurement difficulties and increased costs [11]. - **Cobalt Inventory Concerns**: Current cobalt inventories are low, and the market is experiencing operational disruptions due to export bans, which could lead to price surges if supply constraints persist [14][15]. - **Rare Earth Export Restrictions**: New export bans on heavy rare earths are causing significant disruptions in the magnetic materials industry, with potential long-term impacts on production and supply chains [17][19]. - **Investment Opportunities**: Companies like Huayou Cobalt, Hanrui Cobalt, and others are expected to benefit from improved performance in the cobalt and nickel sectors, especially if they can effectively hedge against price declines [16][21]. Conclusion - The energy metals sector is navigating a challenging landscape characterized by price volatility, regulatory changes, and supply chain disruptions. However, there are signs of recovery and potential investment opportunities as companies adapt to these challenges and explore new strategies for profitability.