最近黄金、白银这走势，给我整得心跳突突的！ 就说12月29日到30日这两天，行情跟坐过山车似的：现货黄金29日一天跌了超5%，失守4310美元/盎 司；白银更狠，29日内便跌超10%，直接跌破71美元。 有人一夜之间就浮亏了15万，这波震荡下来，不少人都慌了神：到底要不要卖？ 卖了怕踏空，毕竟今年涨得太猛；不卖又怕再跌，这种心脏骤停式的巨震实在扛不住。 有人一夜浮亏15万！黄金白银这波暴涨暴跌，现在到底是落袋为安，还是再赌一把？ 先回顾下今年的行情，你就知道大家为啥纠结了。现货黄金年初才2600多美元，最高冲破4500美元/盎 司，年内涨幅超70%；白银更夸张，最高飙到83美元/盎司，年内涨幅接近150%。 股票这边也不示弱，黄金股里的山东黄金、紫金矿业今年股价都涨了不少，紫金矿业的股价更是涨了 121%；白银股里的盛达资源今年的股价从11块涨到了30块，涨幅超155%，兴业银锡的股价今年涨幅更 是达到了230%。 要是年初拿1万块买了相关标的，现在已然翻倍，这收益谁看了不心动？可面对眼下这忽上忽下的行 情，大家的观点直接掰成了两半：有人说赶紧卖，落袋为安最实在；也有人坚信还能涨，毕竟业内人士 都预判，说明年 ...

Group 1 - In 2025, the market value increment of A-share listed companies in Shandong Province reached 127.64 billion yuan, representing a growth of 34.40% compared to the beginning of the year [1] - Zhongji Xuchuang was the core driver of market value growth, with an increase of 53.93 billion yuan and a growth rate of 389.46%, contributing 42.25% to the province's total market value increment [1] - The remaining four companies in the top five, namely Shandong Gold, Jereh, Weichai Power, and Rongchang Bio, each had a market value increment of less than 8 billion yuan, with their contribution to the province's market value growth not exceeding 7% [1] Group 2 - The companies experiencing the most significant market value reduction in Shandong Province included Qingdao Beer, Haier Smart Home, Yanzhou Coal, Dong'e Ejiao, and Shandong Publishing, with each company's market value decline not exceeding 30 billion yuan [1]

Market Overview - The precious metals sector declined by 0.23% on December 31, with Xiaocheng Technology leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3968.84, up 0.09%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13525.02, down 0.58% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Shandong Gold (600547) closed at 38.71, up 0.52% with a trading volume of 346,600 shares [1] - Hengbang Shares (002237) closed at 13.42, up 0.45% with a trading volume of 411,100 shares [1] - Shanjin International (000975) closed at 24.33, up 0.25% with a trading volume of 288,700 shares [1] - Other notable declines include Hunan Silver (002716) down 1.00% and Xibu Gold (601069) down 1.84% [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The precious metals sector experienced a net outflow of 432 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 288 million yuan [3][4] - The detailed capital flow for individual stocks shows significant outflows for Shandong Gold and Hunan Silver, with net outflows of 50.46 million yuan and 59.44 million yuan respectively [4] ETF Information - The gold stock ETF (product code: 159562) tracks the CSI Hong Kong-Shenzhen Gold Industry Stock Index and has seen a 5-day decline of 0.79% [6] - The ETF's current price-to-earnings ratio is 27.03, with a recent increase in shares by 4 million, resulting in a net subscription of 9.058 million yuan [6]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Zifeng Gold (01815), has issued a total of 21.7 million shares at an issuance price of HKD 1.61 per share to subscribers D and E, with the issuance date set for December 31, 2025 [1] Group 1 - The company has allocated and issued 3.1 million shares and 18.6 million shares to subscribers D and E respectively [1] - The total number of shares issued amounts to 21.7 million [1] - The issuance price per share is set at HKD 1.61 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market in 2025 saw significant growth across various sectors, with the top ten sectors experiencing substantial annual increases driven by factors such as AI demand, technological advancements, and geopolitical tensions [1][2]. Group 1: Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors in 2025 included: - Optical communication modules with a growth of 156.02% - F5G concept rising by 128.33% - CPO concept increasing by 124.50% - Space station concept up by 115.95% - PCB sector growing by 112.11% - Foxconn rising by 111.69% - Nvidia concept increasing by 104.45% - Gold concept up by 97.35% - Robotics sector growing by 86.54% - New industrialization rising by 83.86% [1][2]. Group 2: Drivers of Growth - The surge in optical communication modules and CPO concepts was primarily driven by: - Explosive demand for AI computing power - Accelerated technological iterations - Domestic substitution and policy funding support [1]. - The PCB, Foxconn, and Nvidia concepts also benefited from: - Explosive growth in AI computing demand - Increased production and sales of high-end products due to AI servers - Resonance from the demand in new energy vehicles and consumer electronics, leading to historic high industry performance [1]. - The significant rise in the gold sector was attributed to: - The onset of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, which lowered real interest rates and weakened the dollar - Escalating global geopolitical conflicts - Central banks' continued gold purchases and a trend towards de-dollarization, driving safe-haven and asset allocation demand [1]. Group 3: Robotics Sector Insights - The robotics sector's growth was fueled by: - Deep integration of embodied intelligence and AI large models, leading to rapid breakthroughs in humanoid robot technology - Progress in Tesla's Optimus V3 adaptation for mass production - Acceleration of commercialization by domestic complete machine and core component enterprises - The establishment of offline stores for Yush Robot and the catalyzing effect of robot marathon events on industry enthusiasm [2].

Core Insights - Gold has emerged as a key investment theme for 2025, with spot gold prices reaching $4,373.499 per ounce, marking a 67% increase for the year and over 50 historical highs [1][2]. Price Trends - The price of spot gold has shown significant volatility in 2025, breaking the $3,000 per ounce mark on March 14, surpassing $3,500 in April, and reaching over $4,000 by October 8, eventually exceeding $4,500 by late December [2]. - The price of gold jewelry in China increased from approximately 800 yuan per gram at the beginning of the year to around 1,360 yuan per gram by year-end, reflecting a rise of about 560 yuan per gram [2]. Market Drivers - The strong performance of gold in 2025 is attributed to multiple factors, including heightened geopolitical and economic uncertainties, a weakening dollar, and persistent upward momentum in gold prices. Central banks and investors are increasing their gold holdings for asset diversification and stability [4]. - Key drivers for the rise in gold prices include the Federal Reserve's easing cycle, changes in the credibility of the dollar, and global geopolitical risks [4]. Future Outlook - Market consensus for 2026 leans towards a bullish outlook for gold, although there are differing opinions on the pace and extent of price increases. Potential scenarios include a range of price fluctuations depending on economic conditions, with estimates suggesting gold could reach over $5,000 per ounce [5]. - The World Gold Council's report outlines four potential scenarios for the gold market in 2026, ranging from a mild decline to significant gains depending on economic conditions [5]. Consumer Behavior - The fluctuations in gold prices have influenced consumer decisions, with many individuals sharing experiences of purchasing gold at various price points throughout the year, leading to significant savings compared to current prices [6][9]. - The demand for gold jewelry and investment products remains strong, with notable increases in gold consumption in China, particularly in jewelry and gold bars [10]. Investment Strategies - Different investment channels for gold cater to various investor profiles, including physical gold bars for long-term holders, bank accumulation gold for flexible investment, and gold ETFs for high liquidity [11][12]. - Investors are advised to approach gold investments with a long-term perspective, focusing on asset diversification and risk hedging, while avoiding impulsive trading behaviors [14].

回顾全年港股走势，在2024年上涨17.67%的基础上，恒生指数2025年累计上涨27.77%，恒生科技指数同样 迎来两年连涨，2025年累计涨幅23.45%。 每日经济新闻消息，12月31日，因元旦假期，今日港股只交易上午半天。 截至收盘，恒生指数报收于25630.54点，下跌224.06点，跌幅0.87%。 恒生科技指数报收于5514.98点，下跌62.40点，跌幅1.12%。 编辑：陈艳琦 责编：吴光亮 审核：廖异 资金方面，2025年港股市场迎来南向资金大规模涌入，全年净买入港股金额超1.4万亿港元，南向资金累计 净买入金额已突破5万亿港元。截至收盘，今日南向资金净卖出港股超34亿港元。 展望2026年，业内普遍认为，全球流动性宽松可期，在加快科技创新、扩大内需等利好政策带动下，港股 上市公司盈利水平有望实现实质性提升，市场将迎来盈利与估值均上涨的格局。 原标题：2025年港股收官 恒指年涨幅27.77% "深港指数"领涨全球 横向对比全球重要指数，恒生指数年涨幅仅落后深成指（截至午间收盘，深成指年内涨幅30%），位居第 二。 | 序号 | 证券代码 | 加蒙简称 | 年涨跌幅 | | | --- | ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market in 2025 has shown significant performance across various sectors, with the copper sector leading the gains, followed by gold and semiconductors, indicating a strong market response to global re-inflation and geopolitical factors [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The copper sector has seen a remarkable increase of 261.85% year-to-date [2] - Gold stocks have also performed well, with a year-to-date increase of 169.01% [2] - The semiconductor sector has experienced a growth of 143.02% [2] - Other strong performers include biopharmaceuticals (81.78%), innovative drug concepts (64.88%), and insurance stocks (55.33%) [2] Group 2: Market Themes - The strongest theme identified is Resources and Inflation, which includes copper, gold, oil, coal, and steel, reflecting a re-evaluation of the long-term value of resources amid global re-inflation and energy transition [1] - The core theme is Technology and Innovation, represented by semiconductors, innovative concepts, biopharmaceuticals, and lithium batteries, indicating a focus on national industrial upgrades and self-sufficiency [1] - The defensive theme is Financials and Heavy Assets, including insurance, banking, electricity, and infrastructure, which provide stable earnings and high dividend yields amid uncertainty [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, the gold and silver markets showed significant upward trends. The outlook for the precious metals market in 2026 remains optimistic. The continued fiscal expansion of major countries, the expected further decline of the US dollar, and the existence of stagflation risks in the US may further support the investment demand for gold. The industrial and investment demand for silver may also remain strong [2]. Summary by Directory Part I: Review of Precious Metals Market Gold Market Review - **Historical Gold Market Review**: Gold has experienced three major bull markets in the past 60 years. From 1971 - 1980, the price rose from $35/ounce to $850/ounce, a nearly 24 - fold increase. From 1980 - 2000, it was a bear market. From 2001 - 2011, the price soared from $255/ounce to $1920/ounce, a 650% increase. From 2016 - 2025, it entered a new bull market [6]. - **2025 Gold Market Review**: Affected by factors such as the implementation of the US tariff policy, the Fed's interest - rate cuts, and geopolitical crises, the London spot gold price rose from $2610.85/ounce at the end of 2024 to over $4500/ounce at the end of 2025, a cumulative increase of over 70%. The SHFE gold futures also showed a similar trend [13]. Silver Market Review - **Historical Silver Market Review**: Over the past 60 years, international silver prices have fluctuated significantly. From 1971 - 1980, it soared from $1.5/ounce to $49.45/ounce. From 1980 - 2000, it plummeted. From 2001 - 2011, it rose from $4/ounce to $49/ounce. From 2021 - 2025, it was driven by multiple factors to break through $80/ounce [18]. - **2025 Silver Market Review**: The London spot silver price rose from $28.91/ounce at the end of 2024 to over $80/ounce at the end of 2025, with a maximum annual increase of over 170%. The SHFE silver also showed a similar upward trend [23]. Part II: Analysis of the Impact of Macroeconomic and Geopolitical Factors on Precious Metals Prices Impact of the US Economic Situation on Precious Metals Prices - **Impact of the US Interest - Rate Cut Cycle**: The expectation of the US interest - rate cut cycle is one of the underlying logics supporting the sharp rise in precious metals prices. In 2025, the Fed cut interest rates three times, weakening the yields of traditional assets and increasing the attractiveness of gold [31]. - **Impact of the US Economy**: In 2025, the US economy maintained a certain growth rate, but the "Big and Beautiful" tax and expenditure bill worsened the medium - and long - term fiscal prospects, consolidating the bullish trend of gold [33]. - **Impact of the US Dollar Index Trend**: The US dollar index has a negative correlation with precious metals prices. In 2025, the weakening dollar index supported precious metals prices, but in 2026, its support may weaken [49]. Impact of Central Bank Gold Purchases on Precious Metals Prices - In recent years, global central banks have continuously increased their gold reserves. In 2025, central banks' gold - buying pace accelerated in the third quarter. In 2026, the pace of central bank gold allocation may slow down [51]. Impact of Geopolitical Crises on Precious Metals Prices - Geopolitical conflicts such as the Middle East situation, the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and the Palestine - Israel conflict have increased market uncertainty, leading investors to turn to gold for risk - aversion. They also affect the supply and demand pattern of gold [56]. Part III: Analysis of Precious Metals Supply and Demand Gold Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply Analysis**: In the first three quarters of 2025, domestic raw material gold production was 271.782 tons, and imported raw material gold production was 121.149 tons. The global total gold supply in the first three quarters was 3717.4 tons [59]. - **Demand Analysis**: The global total gold demand in the first three quarters of 2025 was 3717.4 tons, showing a slight upward trend. China's gold consumption decreased by 7.95% year - on - year [63]. - **Inventory Analysis**: In 2025, SHFE gold inventory continued to rise, while COMEX gold inventory remained stable after an initial increase and then gradually declined slightly [65]. Silver Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply Analysis**: It is expected that the global silver supply in 2025 will increase by 2% year - on - year to 1030.6 million ounces, mainly due to a 2% increase in mined silver [69]. - **Demand Analysis**: It is expected that the global silver demand in 2025 will decrease by 1% year - on - year to 1148.3 million ounces. Industrial demand will decrease slightly, while investment demand will increase by 7% [75]. - **Inventory Analysis**: SHFE, COMEX, and Shanghai Gold Exchange silver inventories all showed significant fluctuations in 2025 [78]. Part IV: Arbitrage and Position Analysis of the Precious Metals Market Gold Market Arbitrage and Position Analysis - **Domestic Gold Spot - Futures Arbitrage Analysis**: In 2025, the basis of SHFE gold futures active contracts was mostly negative, with occasional positive values presenting arbitrage opportunities [88]. - **Gold Inter - Period Arbitrage Analysis**: The inter - period spread of SHFE gold futures active contracts and continuous contracts was mostly positive, with occasional large declines presenting arbitrage opportunities [91]. - **Gold - Silver Ratio Analysis**: In 2025, the gold - silver ratio fluctuated sharply, and its future direction is difficult to judge after breaking through the previous range [95]. - **Analysis of SHFE Gold Positions and Capital Inflows**: In 2025, domestic institutional net long positions in SHFE gold futures showed fluctuations, and the inflow of funds increased with the rise in gold prices [97]. Silver Market Arbitrage and Position Analysis - **Silver Basis Analysis**: In 2025, the basis of SHFE silver futures active contracts was mostly negative, with large positive spreads appearing at the end of the year [106]. - **Silver Inter - Period Spread Analysis**: The inter - period spread of SHFE silver futures active contracts and continuous contracts was mostly positive, with occasional large fluctuations [108]. - **Analysis of SHFE Silver Positions and Capital Inflows**: In 2025, domestic institutional net long positions in SHFE silver futures showed fluctuations, and the inflow of funds increased significantly with the rise in silver prices [111]. Part V: Analysis and Strategies of Precious Metals Options - The implied volatility of gold and silver options has increased in recent years. The put - call ratio of gold options indicates a bullish market, while that of silver options shows more fluctuations, especially increasing when the silver price rises sharply [121]. - Different options strategies can be considered according to different price and volatility expectations, such as buying at - the - money call options, selling out - of - the - money put options, selling strangles, and buying straddles [122]. Part VI: Seasonal Analysis of Precious Metals - Based on a five - year seasonal analysis, precious metals have a relatively high probability of rising in March, April, and October and a relatively high probability of falling in June [137]. Part VII: Outlook on Factors Affecting Precious Metals Prices in 2026 and Technical Analysis - **Prediction of the Fed's Interest - Rate Cut Rhythm in 2026 and Its Impact on Precious Metals Prices**: It is expected that the Fed will cut interest rates by 75 basis points in 2026, which is beneficial to precious metals prices [146]. - **Orientation of US Government Policies in 2026 and Their Impact on Precious Metals Prices**: The US economy is expected to grow, and the government will maintain a high fiscal deficit rate. The new Fed chairman may be more dovish, which is conducive to the rise of precious metals prices [150]. - **Impact of Gold Supply - Demand Balance on Gold Prices**: In 2025, gold investment demand increased significantly. In 2026, the gold market outlook remains optimistic, and the strategic value of allocating gold is still stable [151]. - **Technical Analysis of Precious Metals Price Trends**: Technically, COMEX gold has strong support at $3500/ounce and $4000/ounce, and COMEX silver may have strong support at $50/ounce and $35/ounce [155]. Part VIII: Outlook on Precious Metals Prices in 2026 and Strategy Recommendations - In 2026, the global macro - game pattern remains unchanged. The continuous expansion of fiscal deficits in major economies, the Fed's interest - rate cuts, and geopolitical uncertainties are expected to support precious metals prices. Buying on dips can be considered as a trading strategy [160].

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market closed with a slight decline, with the Hang Seng Index down 0.87% to 25,630.54 points, and a total trading volume of HKD 118.97 billion. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell 0.86%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index dropped 1.12% [1] - For the year 2025, the Hang Seng Index recorded a cumulative increase of 27.77%, marking its best performance since 2017, while the China Enterprises Index and Tech Index rose by 22.27% and 23.45%, respectively [1] - Looking ahead to 2026, it is expected that under a backdrop of loose monetary policy, foreign and southbound capital will continue to flow into the market, potentially leading to a substantial increase in the profitability of Hong Kong-listed companies [1] Blue-Chip Stocks Performance - Baidu Group-SW (09888) rose 1.39% to HKD 131.5, contributing 3.55 points to the Hang Seng Index, driven by growth in its AI business [2] - Other blue-chip stocks included Sunny Optical Technology (02382) up 1.16%, Zijin Mining (02899) up 0.85%, while Innovent Biologics (01801) fell 3.66% and New Oriental-S (09901) dropped 2.49% [2] Sector Highlights - Major technology stocks mostly declined, with Alibaba down over 1% and Tencent down 0.17%, while Baidu saw an increase [3] - The airline sector saw a collective rise, with China Eastern Airlines (00670) up 4.92%, China Southern Airlines (01055) up 4.3%, and Air China (00753) up 3.36%, attributed to increased travel demand during the New Year holiday [4] - The film industry remained active, with the total box office for the New Year season surpassing HKD 5 billion, marking a new high for the past eight years [3] Mining Sector - Zijin Mining Group reported a projected net profit of USD 1.5-1.6 billion for 2025, a year-on-year increase of approximately 212%-233%, while Zijin Mining expects a net profit of CNY 51-52 billion, up 59%-62% year-on-year [5] - Zijin Mining's production targets for 2026 include 105 tons of gold and 120,000 tons of copper, indicating a strong growth trajectory [5] Automotive Sector - The automotive sector showed mixed results, with Great Wall Motors (02333) up 3.24% and GAC Group (02238) up 0.74%, while Li Auto-W (02015) fell 1.44% [6] - New policies for 2026 regarding vehicle subsidies have been announced, which may stabilize consumer expectations for car purchases [6] Notable Stock Movements - In the AI-driven pharmaceutical sector, Insilico Medicine (03696) surged 23.88% to HKD 37.14, reflecting its advancements in drug discovery [7] - Delin Holdings (01709) rose 9.68% to HKD 2.04 after announcing conditional approval for virtual asset trading services [8] - Jiangxi Copper (00358) reached a new high, up 5.36% to HKD 42.88, supported by rising copper prices [9] - KANAT Optical (02276) increased by 4.25% to HKD 54, benefiting from new policies supporting digital and smart products [10]