Group 1 - The global economic growth remains resilient despite trade conflicts and regional tensions, with the oil market being a key indicator for sustaining this positive trend [1] - The focus is on the Strait of Hormuz, where the ability of the US and its allies to prevent long-term disruptions in energy transport is crucial [1] - If oil supply routes remain open and production increases successfully, the economic impact can be controlled [1] Group 2 - Two scenarios for the energy market are proposed: a severe and prolonged disruption of all transport through the Strait of Hormuz, or a situation where only Iranian oil exports are cut off [2][3] - In the first scenario, global oil prices could exceed $100 per barrel, with Brent crude already nearing a seven-month high of approximately $73 per barrel after a nearly 12% increase in the past month [3] - The second scenario could see oil prices rise to at least $80 per barrel, although increased production from other oil-producing countries may mitigate this impact [5] Group 3 - The US has achieved near energy independence, with only 17% of its energy consumption reliant on imports, but disruptions in Gulf oil transport could still affect global oil prices [6] - A $100 per barrel oil price could raise the consumer price inflation rate from 2.4% to over 4%, impacting the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [6] - Historical trends suggest that such oil price shocks typically strengthen the US dollar, with a 10% increase in oil prices potentially raising the dollar's value by 0.5% to 1% [6] Group 4 - The majority of oil and LNG transported through the Strait of Hormuz is destined for Asian markets, and a rise in Brent crude prices to $100 could increase global inflation by 0.6% to 0.7% [7] - Europe is expected to be significantly affected by rising oil prices and LNG costs, although its current inflation rate of 1.7% may limit the European Central Bank's policy responses [7] - Central banks may choose to downplay the impact of rising oil prices, as higher energy costs could ultimately reduce consumer purchasing power, leading to a counter-inflationary effect [7]

Military Conflict and Regional Impact - Several US military aircraft crashed in Kuwait, but all crew members survived [1] - Iran launched retaliatory strikes across the region following the elimination of its supreme leader and top military leaders by a US-Israel joint mission [1] - Iranian ballistic missiles targeted major population centers in Israel, with at least 10 injuries reported in Beerva [2] - Hezbollah, an Iranian proxy, engaged in the conflict by launching rockets into northern Israel, prompting Israeli strikes on Beirut [3][4] - The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) conducted retaliatory strikes against Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, including command centers and launch sites [4][5] Oil Supply and Economic Implications - The Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil transport, is experiencing nearly halted traffic due to the escalating conflict [10] - China relies on the Strait for 15% to 23% of its seaborne oil, much of which comes from Iran [10] - Major tanker owners have suspended shipments through the Strait due to safety concerns, leading to rising oil prices [12] - China's economy, which is fragile and export-dependent, may face significant problems in about two months if the situation continues [14] Geopolitical Dynamics - The relationship between China and Iran is complex, as China is dependent on oil from the Strait while maintaining a balanced relationship with Western nations [16] - The potential for a meeting between President Trump and Xi Jinping is diminishing due to the conflict, especially if American service members are harmed by Chinese-made weapons [18][19] - The House China Select Committee reported that China is expanding its space footprint in Latin America, raising concerns about military applications [18]

| | | | 作 模 | | --- | | 评 1 45 1 | | 原油 ★★☆ | | --- | | 燃料油 ★★☆ | | 低硫燃料油 ★★☆ | | 沥青 ★☆☆ | 能源日报 2026年03月02日 王盈敏 中级分析师 F3066912 Z0016785 李海群 中级分析师 F03107558 Z0021515 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 【原油】 周一开盘油品期货集体迎来高开行情,国际油价开盘跳空上涨,Brent原油价格一度上涨近13%,触及每桶82美 元,随后回落至78美元/桶,涨幅仍超7%。内盘SC原油期货开盘涨停。油价此轮飙升主要因继2025年6月伊以12 日战争后上周末中东再燃战火。2月28日美以联合对伊朗发动军事打击，造成伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊及多名高级 官员身亡。作为回应,伊朗随即对美以目标发起代号为"真实承诺4"的军事行动，她区局势由此前对峙迅速升 级为全面军事对抗。在伊朗采取的众多反击措施中，关于伊朗宣布禁止任何船只通过霍尔木兹海峡这一消息传 出后引起市场关于中东产油国原油供应中断的恐慌情绪。在美以与伊朗军事对抗持续、霍尔 ...

周末中东地缘局势快速升温，哈梅内伊身亡，随后伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队宣布全面封锁霍尔木兹海 峡，禁止所有船只通行。3 月 1 日晚，伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队在声明中表示，在继续对敌方海上目标的 攻击中。3 月 2 日新华社引半岛电视台援引伊朗军方的消息报道，三艘英美油轮在波斯湾和霍尔木兹 海峡遭到袭击。船视宝数据显示，自 28 日以来，周边海域船舶航行速度普遍降至零，大量船舶"趴 窝"在附近紧急避险，霍尔木兹海峡两端被迫滞留的船舶已有一百多艘，霍尔木兹海峡船舶通航数量 断崖式下降： 数据来源：船视宝 异动点评: 地缘冲突持续升级，原油期货高开涨停 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1292 号 罗鸣（投资咨询资格编号：Z0023753） 2026 年 3 月 2 日星期一 电话：020-88818032 邮箱：qhluom@gf.com.cn 行情导读：截至今日下午收盘，上海能源交易所原油期货主力合约上涨 8.98%，报 527.8 元/桶，日增仓 6522 手。核心逻辑在于周末美伊激烈交火，且冲突有进一步扩大的趋势，地缘冲突快速升级，伊朗革命 卫队宣布禁止船只通行霍尔木兹海峡，超 150 艘油轮在海湾海域集体抛锚停 ...

德银将霍尔木兹局势划分为三类情景：若两周内重开，油价将回落至70美元区间；若维持当前的"模糊封锁"，油价将在80至 100美元波动；若演变为大规模布雷的"强制封锁"，导致OPEC增产失效，布伦特原油或飙升至200美元。哈尔格岛损毁程度 与封锁时长将成为研判未来的核心变量。 中东局势骤然升级，全球能源市场面临数十年来最大不确定性。据追风交易台消息，德意志银行在3月2日的报告中梳理了霍 尔木兹海峡走势的三种情景，其中最极端的全面封锁情景下，布伦特原油价格或向每桶200美元冲击。 伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊在2月28日上午遇袭身亡。以色列方面称，哈梅内伊及其高级助手，包括伊朗国防委员会秘书阿里·沙 姆哈尼和伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队总司令穆罕默德·帕克普尔，均在空袭中丧生。随后媒体相继报道伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队 （IRGC）随即宣布封锁霍尔木兹海峡，并对驻扎在卡塔尔、科威特、阿联酋和巴林的美军基地实施打击。 油市对上述事件迅速作出反应。据彭博报道，多艘商业船只收到伊朗海军广播，称通行已被禁止，包括赫伯罗特（Hapag- Lloyd）和马士基（Maersk）在内的主要航运商已宣布暂停霍尔木兹海峡航行。OPEC+则宣布将在4月增产20. ...

伯恩斯坦分析师警告称,美以联合对伊朗采取行动后,地缘政治紧张局势升级可能导致 石油 市场大幅收紧,关键的决定性因素在于霍尔木兹海峡的通行是否 会受到干扰。 "由于OPEC的备用产能约为300万桶/日,六个月封锁情景可能对世界经济造成严重后果,"他们写道。 即使是实际物流情况也凸显了这一风险。来自沙特阿拉伯和阿联酋的管道路线只能绕过霍尔木兹海峡流量的一小部分,备用产能不足300万桶/日, 仅能覆盖通过该海峡流量的约15%。 使用每桶80美元布伦特原油的中间情景假设,伯恩斯坦估计,欧洲大型综合石油公司的贴现现金流(DCF)估值将上升约10-11%,而更侧重上游业 务的公司可能会看到更大幅度的估值提升。 然而,分析师警告称,大型石油公司在中东地区也面临"高风险"的产量敞口,这意味着如果该地区的生产受到干扰,较高的价格将无法完全转化为盈 利增长。 由Irene Himona领导的分析师团队预计,冲突将"立即为油价增加5-10美元/桶的风险溢价",这反映了伊朗有效封锁霍尔木兹海峡可能导致重大 供应冲击的威胁。由于全球约20%的石油和液化天然 气 (LNG)贸易通过这一咽喉要道,任何干扰的持续时间都至关重要。 伯恩斯坦根 ...

1 / 2 研究所 原油研发报告 研究所 原油研发报告 原油日报 2026 年 3 月 2 日 原油现货市场日报 研究员： 赵若晨 期货从业证号： F03151390 投资咨询从业证号： Z0023496 ： zhaoruochen_qh @chinastock.com.cn | | 多家船东互保协会表示，由于伊朗及海湾地区的冲突，它们正在取消为船舶 提供的战争风险保险。根据其官网上日期为3月1日的通知，包括嘉德保险、 | | --- | --- | | | 斯库尔德保险、北英船东保险、伦敦保赔协会和美国船东保险在内的多家协 | | | 会表示，取消决定将于3月5日生效。通知称，战争风险保险将在伊朗水域、 | | | 海湾及其邻近水域被排除在承保范围之外。 | | 贸易物流 | 比利时国防部长特奥·弗兰肯表示，比利时于周日扣押了一艘属于俄罗斯"影 | | | 子船队"的油轮，该油轮涉嫌使用"虚假船旗和虚假文件"航行。西方因俄罗斯 | | | 入侵乌克兰而实施的制裁旨在切断其石油收入，这导致了帮助莫斯科维持原 | | | 油出口的油轮"影子船队"的兴起。 | | | 受中东战争及船舶供应日益紧张的影响，自上周五 ...

Group 1: Overseas Macro Strategy - The joint military action by the US and Israel against Iran in late February 2026 is a core disturbance factor in the overseas macro market [2] - The situation in Iran may exhibit characteristics of "low-intensity long-termization," with high shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz, impacting global markets primarily through heightened risk aversion and increased energy prices and inflation expectations [2] - Short-term effects include rising risk aversion supporting the performance of safe-haven assets like the US dollar, precious metals, and US Treasuries, while global stock markets face pressure, with significant divergence among sectors [2] Group 2: Commodity Market Insights - Gold continues to show strength due to its dual role as a safe-haven and inflation hedge, while silver benefits from increased risk aversion and capital flow within the precious metals sector [2] - Concerns over shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz drive significant upward movement in oil prices, while copper prices receive short-term support due to limited Iranian export supplies [2] Group 3: Chinese Macro Strategy - The upcoming government work report post-two sessions will focus on whether economic growth targets will be adjusted, with local GDP growth targets down by 0.22 percentage points to 5.06% [4] - The report may introduce more quantitative indicators related to resident consumption to enhance strategic guidance for the year [4] - Fiscal policy is expected to remain moderately expansive, with key data on deficit rates and special bond issuance to be clarified [4] Group 4: A-share and Hong Kong Market Analysis - Rising oil prices may increase upstream costs, squeezing midstream and downstream profits, and weakening interest rate cut expectations, though limited impact is expected if oil price increases are less than those during the 2025 conflict [5] - Investment strategies should focus on cyclical sectors with anti-inflation and safe-haven attributes, particularly in strategic resources like oil, natural gas, precious metals, and military technology [5] - The Hong Kong market faces greater impact than the A-share market due to its higher sensitivity to interest rate cut expectations and cost pressures on technology and consumer sectors [5]

Core Viewpoint - Stock futures experienced a significant decline while oil prices surged due to escalating conflict in the Middle East, particularly concerning Iran [1] Group 1: Stock Market Impact - Futures tracking the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 564 points, representing a 1.1% decrease [1] - S&P 500 futures also dropped by 1.1% [1] - Contracts linked to the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 saw a more substantial decline, plunging by 1.5% [1] Group 2: Oil Market Reaction - Oil prices rallied as concerns grew over potential disruptions in traffic through the Strait of Hormuz due to the conflict [1] - The Brent international benchmark increased by 9.1%, trading at $79.48 per barrel [1] - West Texas Intermediate U.S. crude rose by 8.2%, reaching $72.51 per barrel [1]

分析师 张伟 SAC 证书编号：S0160525060002 zhangwei04@ctsec.com 分析师 万琦 SAC 证书编号：S0160525090007 wanqi@ctsec.com 霍尔木兹海峡对原油的意义 证券研究报告 宏观点评 / 2026.03.02 相关报告 1. 《央行出手干预，延缓人民币升值速度》 2026-02-27 2. 《 年轻人的春节：反向过年与里子消费》 2026-02-25 3. 《夹在财政和通胀之间的"虚空造牌"》 2026-02-24 核心观点 ❖ 风险提示：地缘冲突升级风险；全球经济增长承压；市场过度定价风险。 请阅读最后一页的重要声明！ ❖ 2026 年 2 月 28 日中东地缘冲突进入新阶段，霍尔木兹海峡遭伊朗封锁，全 球能源市场面临供给冲击风险。霍尔木兹海峡具备极为重要的战略地位，是 主要海湾产油国通往国际市场的核心海上通道，承担全球超 25%海上石油贸 易量。历史上，伊朗曾多次在战争或制裁背景下威胁封锁霍尔木兹海峡，此前 从未实施过真正意义上的全面关闭。本次实行物理封锁，海峡航运已近乎停 滞，区域船舶战争险保费暴涨，全球能源运输成本与供应风险急剧抬升。 ❖ ...