特朗普与莫迪2025年2月在华盛顿会谈（REUTERS） 印度此前增加了价格因欧美制裁而下跌的俄罗斯产原油的采购量，为持续进攻乌克兰的俄罗斯提供了战 争经费的支持。试图调停俄乌战争的特朗普对印度征收了额外关税，以迫使对方停止购买俄罗斯原油。 据芬兰智库"能源与清洁空气研究中心"统计，从2022年12月至2025年4月俄罗斯原油的出口目的地来 看，中国占47％，印度占38％。 美印已就印度停止购买俄罗斯产原油达成协议。作为回报，美国准备撤销作为对俄制裁一环而对印度启 动的额外关税。美国开始将重点放在与盟友构建合作关系上，而不是利用关税制造对立…… 美国总统特朗普2月2日表示，美印已就印度停止购买俄罗斯产原油达成协议。据悉印度将改为从美国和 委内瑞拉采购原油。作为回报，美国准备撤销作为对俄制裁一环而对印度启动的额外关税。 特朗普在社交媒体上发文称，2日早间与印度总理莫迪"讨论了包括贸易以及终结俄乌战争在内的诸多事 项"。特朗普写道："他已同意停止购买俄罗斯产原油，并从美国大幅增加采购。也有可能从委内瑞拉 （购买）"。 特朗普2日宣布，将对印度实施的对等关税税率从25％下调至18％。据美国《华盛顿邮报》报道，美方 ...

Group 1: Market News and Important Data - On February 3, the US government is preparing to issue a general license allowing companies to extract oil in Venezuela, a step to attract US - related companies and revive the country's energy industry. Another license allowing companies to buy and sell Venezuelan crude was issued last week [1]. - On February 3, the US Trade Representative said India agreed to cut tariffs on US exports from 13.5% to zero for industrial products, and they also reached a consensus on reducing India's technical non - tariff trade barriers. The US has been monitoring India's reduction of Russian oil purchases [1]. - In recent months, India has cut Russian oil imports. At least three refiners are seeking government clarification, two of which have suspended purchases. India's oil minister expects imports from Russia to continue to decline, and refiners want to increase supplies from Canada and the US [1]. - On February 3, crude oil prices rose slightly in Asian morning trading due to the US - India trade agreement. Trump said the US would cut tariffs on India to 18%, and India would stop buying Russian oil and increase purchases from the US and Venezuela. The US would cancel the 25% extra tariff on India's Russian oil imports, which may trigger more active purchasing by Indian refiners [1]. Group 2: Investment Logic - The situation in Iran has taken a turn with an Iranian drone shot down by the US military. The US - India agreement will lead to a 1 - million - barrel - per - day reduction in Russia oil consumption capacity and an increase in compliant oil purchases, supporting oil prices. However, the pace of India's procurement shift is unknown, and in the short term, the market surplus is concentrated in sanctioned oil, while the supply - demand of compliant oil will tighten [2]. Group 3: Strategy - Oil prices will fluctuate in the short - term, with geopolitical events having a large impact. Control risks, and consider a medium - term short - position allocation [3]

本报（chinatimes.net.cn）记者何一华 李未来 北京报道 国内成品油价格开启2026年第二轮上涨。 2月3日下午，国家发改委发布公告称，近期国际市场油价波动上升，根据2月3日的前10个工作日平均价 格与上次调价前10个工作日平均价格对比情况，按照现行成品油价格机制，自2月3日24时起，国内汽、 柴油价格每吨分别上涨205元和195元。 本次涨价政策落实之后，用油成本有所上涨。卓创资讯测算，油箱容量在50升的小型私家车加满一箱油 将比之前多花8元左右。以月跑两千公里，百公里油耗在8升的小型私家车为例，到下次调价窗口也就是 2月24日24点之前，消费者用油成本将增加18元。 与此同时，物流行业，以月跑10000公里，百公里油耗在38L的重型卡车为例，在下次调价窗口开启 前，单辆车的燃油成本将增加452元左右。 隆众资讯成品油分析师徐雯雯告诉记者，本轮调价后，全国大多数地区车柴价格6.6—6.8元/升，92号汽 油零售限价在6.9—7.0元/升。 地缘冲突扰动 近期两周左右时间，原油价格持续走高，以美原油为例，最低处于55美元/桶，最高涨到66美元/桶，上 涨幅度超过10美元/桶；布伦特原油期货价格更 ...

来源：金十数据 特朗普在社交媒体扔下"深水炸弹"，声称莫迪已同意彻底停购俄罗斯石油，换取关税暴降至18%。然 而，莫迪的公开回应却对石油只字不提！ 印度领导人对特朗普宣布达成期待已久的贸易协议表示热烈欢迎。然而，对于特朗普声称是由于新德里 承诺停止购买俄罗斯石油才促成这一突破，印方的态度则显得十分谨慎。 莫迪在周一对特朗普的"精彩公告"表示赞赏时，并未提及石油问题。周二，印度商务部长也暗示，谈判 代表仍需就该交易达成"最终谅解"。根据特朗普的说法，该协议将削减美国对印度的惩罚性关税。 停止购买俄罗斯石油将产生深远影响，这不仅会考验新德里与莫斯科的"战略伙伴关系"，还会加剧普京 政府资助俄乌冲突的财政压力，并给习惯于获得廉价原油的印度炼油商带来巨大挑战。 然而，由于印度不愿证实这一承诺，分析人士对其是否会立即大幅减产持怀疑态度。观察家研究基金会 （Observer Research Foundation）的专家潘特（Harsh Pant）表示："广义上讲，印度一直在实现多元 化，这一进程将继续。但如果认为印度会因为这项贸易协议而立即中断俄罗斯的石油供应，这不太可能 发生。" 特朗普周一在社交媒体上称，作为将关税 ...

Core Viewpoint - Crude oil futures are experiencing a significant upward trend, with the main contract reaching 462.0 yuan per barrel, marking a substantial increase of 2.71% [1] Group 1: Inventory and Production Data - As of January 31, Japan's commercial crude oil inventory increased by 654,790 thousand liters to 9,905,950 thousand liters [2] - Japan's gasoline inventory decreased by 23,192 thousand liters to 1,695,734 thousand liters [2] - Japan's kerosene inventory fell by 126,993 thousand liters to 1,803,582 thousand liters [2] - The average operating rate of Japanese refineries is 87.7%, down from 91.1% the previous week [2] Group 2: Geopolitical and Market Dynamics - Analysts from DNB indicate that if India halts purchases of Russian crude oil, Russia may struggle to find buyers for its substantial supply [2] - The U.S. has agreed to reduce tariffs on Indian imports to 18% in exchange for India ceasing its procurement of Russian crude, raising questions about the future flow of these oil supplies [2] - Marathon Oil (MRO.N) stated that its refineries, including Garyville, can quickly adapt to process Venezuelan crude oil [2] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Price Fluctuations - Donghai Futures reports that tensions between the U.S. and Iran are escalating, contributing to renewed geopolitical risk premiums in the oil market [4] - API data indicates a significant decline in U.S. commercial inventories by 11 million barrels, which has improved market sentiment previously dampened by precious metals [4] - Hongyuan Futures notes that oil prices rebounded in the previous trading day, recovering some of the earlier losses, with expectations of fluctuating negotiations between the U.S. and Iran impacting market sentiment [4]

2月2日，中国企业继续执行暂停采购委内瑞拉原油的内部指令，这一举措有效延缓了美国资源的变现速度。特朗普尽管低姿态邀请合作，但在价格谈判上仍 然坚持高于以往的水平。与1月相比，中国从委内瑞拉的进口量已大幅下降，这一变化主要归因于美国加强了海上拦截，进一步加剧了全球石油市场的波 动。印度方面已经正式签署与委内瑞拉的能源协议，开始转向采购其原油以部分替代伊朗来源，但俄罗斯的进口并未完全停止。这表明，印度的调整幅度相 对有限，仅在美国施压下做出了部分妥协。 在绍伊古访问中国之后，中俄两国决定加强在联合国和上海合作组织框架内的协作，尤其在伊朗问题上，计划于2月中旬进行联合海军演习。与以往不同的 是，这次演习更注重实战部署，能够在海湾地区提供实际的航道保护，降低冲突升级对能源运输的影响。到目前为止，全球油价因这一事件小幅上扬，布伦 特原油期货有所波动，但中国通过增加从中东和非洲的进口，成功缓解了潜在的供应短缺问题。特朗普的表态本质上揭示了美国在石油控制上的急迫心态， 他试图通过邀请中国参与，分担委内瑞拉内部压力的风险，但忽略了中国一贯坚持的互利原则。 如果中国接受美国的邀请，通过美国的渠道购买委内瑞拉的石油，那么一旦美方 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All varieties in the report are rated as "volatile" [1][2][4][5][6] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical tensions and inventory data impact prices, with cold - induced production decline providing support, but investors are advised to participate with light positions due to variable geopolitical factors [1] - **Fuel Oil**: Supply is abundant, demand for marine fuel oil is expected to increase before the Spring Festival, and prices are affected by geopolitical and cost factors, with follow - up pressure [2] - **Asphalt**: In February, northern refineries have low production and inventory, while southern refineries' inventory rises during the Spring Festival. Prices are affected by crude oil and raw material imports [2] - **Polyester**: Macro - environment cools, crude oil prices fall, and polyester raw materials are expected to fluctuate with costs, with a first - quarter inventory build - up expected [4] - **Rubber**: The macro - environment cools, and the rubber market has a supply - increase and demand - weakness situation, with prices expected to decline and fluctuate [4] - **Methanol**: Supply may decrease in February, demand from MTO devices may decline, and prices are expected to fluctuate in a wide range at a low level [5] - **Polyolefins**: Supply may increase slightly, inventory will increase passively during the holiday, and prices are expected to fluctuate at the bottom [5] - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: Supply is high, demand from the real - estate downstream is weak, but there is an expected supply reduction due to environmental policies, and prices are expected to fluctuate at the bottom [6] 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, WTI 3 - month contract rose 1.07 dollars to 63.21 dollars/barrel (1.72% increase), Brent 4 - month contract rose 1.03 dollars to 67.33 dollars/barrel (1.55% increase), and SC2603 rose 8 yuan/barrel to 457.8 yuan/barrel (1.78% increase). Geopolitical tensions and API data on inventory changes are key factors [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Tuesday, FU2603 fell 3.81% to 22701 yuan/ton, LU2604 fell 2.28% to 3168 yuan/ton. Supply is abundant, and demand for marine fuel oil is expected to increase before the Spring Festival [2] - **Asphalt**: On Tuesday, BU2603 fell 1.72% to 3309 yuan/ton. In February, northern refineries have low production and inventory, while southern refineries' inventory rises during the Spring Festival [2] - **Polyester**: TA605 rose 1.14% to 5150 yuan/ton, EG2605 was flat at 3767 yuan/ton. A 500,000 - ton/year MEG device in South China restarted, and there are inventory build - up expectations in the first quarter [4] - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, RU2605 rose 200 yuan/ton to 16180 yuan/ton, NR rose 170 yuan/ton to 13095 yuan/ton, BR rose 285 yuan/ton to 13185 yuan/ton. The macro - environment cools, and supply exceeds demand [4] - **Methanol**: On Tuesday, Taicang spot price was 2225 yuan/ton. Supply may decrease in February, and demand from MTO devices may decline [5] - **Polyolefins**: On Tuesday, East China's PP prices were between 6550 - 6750 yuan/ton. Supply may increase slightly, and inventory will increase during the holiday [5] - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: On Tuesday, PVC market prices in East China were stable with a slight increase. Supply is high, demand from the real - estate downstream is weak, but there is an expected supply reduction due to environmental policies [6] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The table shows the basis data of various energy - chemical products on February 4, 2026, including spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and their changes [7] 3.3 Market News - Trump said on February 2 that the US and India reached a trade deal, with India potentially stopping buying Russian oil and the US reducing tariffs on Indian goods. API data showed that last week, US crude and distillate inventories decreased sharply, while gasoline inventory increased significantly [9] 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The section presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2022 to 2026 [11][13][15][17][19][22][24][26] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: The section shows the basis charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2022 to 2026 [28][31][35][36][38][39] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The section presents the spread charts of different contracts of various energy - chemical products [41][43][46][49][51][53][55] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: The section shows the spread and ratio charts between different energy - chemical products [57][59][61][65] - **4.5 Production Profits**: The section presents the production profit and processing fee charts of various energy - chemical products [67][69] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy - chemical research team, including the deputy director of the research institute, the research director, and several analysts, along with their professional backgrounds and honors [72][73][74][75]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that Hong Kong oil stocks experienced an afternoon rally, with significant gains observed in major companies [1] Group 2 - China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (00386.HK) saw its stock price increase by over 2% [1] - CNOOC Limited (00883.HK) also reported a rise of more than 2% in its stock value [1] - China National Petroleum Corporation (00857.HK) experienced a similar increase, with its shares up by over 2% [1]

王海博强调，尽管当前委内瑞拉的石油总产量占全球不足1%，但其重油产能却占据全球约9%-10%的份 额。若该国产能快速释放，将对全球石油市场，特别是重油板块产生显著影响，很可能带动重油价格下 行。而油价走势反过来又会影响石油公司在委的进一步投资决策，形成相互制约。 2月3日，国家高端智库中国石油集团经济技术研究院在北京举办《2025年国内外油气行业发展报告》 《全球能源安全报告（2025）》发布会。这是中石油经研院连续第18年发布油气行业发展报告、连续第 4年发布全球能源安全报告，发布会还连续第2年同步对外发布《中石油经研院能源数据手册》。 《2025年国内外油气行业发展报告》提出，世界之"变"催化行业规则重塑。其中，地缘政治格局 剧"变"，多重危机并存，新旧秩序交替，大国战略关系深度重构。2026年，全球将呈现"博弈加剧、风 险外溢加大、供应链加快重构"的态势。 该报告还指出，石油市场主导力量转"变"，全球石油市场主要由供需基本面主导，从供需紧平衡转向明 显过剩。2026年，全球石油市场将在"供需过剩现实"与"地缘冲突风险"之间动态博弈，基本面主导下， 布伦特均价预计为60～65美元/桶，地缘冲突主导下，或将 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. has reduced tariffs on Indian goods from 50% to 18%, but the details of the trade agreement remain unclear, leading to uncertainty for businesses and investors [1][4][5] - Indian officials have stated that sensitive sectors such as agriculture and dairy are protected under the new trade agreement, but specific details have not been disclosed [8][9] - The ambiguity surrounding the agreement includes claims about India purchasing $500 billion worth of U.S. products and stopping the purchase of Russian oil, which have not been confirmed by Indian authorities [1][9] Group 2 - The trade agreement is seen as a potential pathway for increased cooperation between the U.S. and India, but the lack of detailed terms has left many companies, especially Indian exporters, in a precarious position [5][9] - The U.S. dairy products may face challenges entering the Indian market due to cultural sensitivities regarding animal feed, which could impact millions of Indian dairy farmers [6][9] - India has been gradually reducing its oil imports from Russia, with projections indicating a decrease from 1.2 million barrels per day in January to 800,000 barrels per day by March [10]