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2025.10.21 本文字数：3357，阅读时长大约6分钟 作者 |第一财经 周楠 A股三大指数21日集体收涨，上证指数再次收复3900点。多家外资近日表态，继续看好中国市场，有国 际大行喊出"超配中国"。 瑞银日前公开表示，在新兴市场中继续给予中国超配评级，理由是，与另一新兴市场印度相比，中国 （企业）营收增长更快，每股收益增长同样较快，"即使忽略中国的AI及互联网股票，MSCI中国指数中 其余股票的资本回报率（ROIC）也在改善"。 瑞银证券中国股票策略分析师孟磊21日对第一财经记者表示，10月以来，A股经历了从"科技成 长"向"价值红利"的风格切换，影响因素包括中美贸易再次出现摩擦、投资者对组合进行再平衡，科技 板块前期涨幅较大、部分投资者获利了结等。但他认为，A股中期表现依然向好，"成长"风格可能跑 赢"价值"风格。 第一财经同时了解到，外资高度关注中国"十五五"规划，特别是"反内卷"、促消费、高质量增长和发展 新质生产力等方面的情况。 第一财经记者梳理上市公司三季报时还发现，部分外资三季度确实在行动，"瞄准"A股龙头股跑步入 场，部分个股的外资持股比例维持较高水平。比如，思源电气（002028.S ...

Market Overview - As of October 21, US stock indices showed mixed performance, with the Dow Jones up by 0.89% and the Nasdaq down by 0.16% [1] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average reached 47,121.38, gaining 414.80 points [2] - The Nasdaq Composite Index was at 22,953.11, decreasing by 37.43 points [2] - The S&P 500 Index rose by 0.18%, closing at 6,747.05 [2] Technology Sector Performance - The Nasdaq 100 Index fell by 0.10%, while the major tech stocks showed varied results [2] - Amazon led the gains among the tech giants with a rise of 2.39%, while Google experienced the largest decline at 3.3% [3] - Apple continued its upward trend, increasing by 0.25% and reaching a new high [3] Chinese Stocks - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index saw a slight decline of 0.6%, with most popular Chinese stocks experiencing losses [4] - Notable declines included NIO, Baidu, and Alibaba, each dropping over 2%, while Bilibili rose over 6% [4] Commodity Market - Precious metals faced significant declines, with gold prices dropping sharply, marking a 6% decrease, the largest drop since August 2020 [6][8] - The price of gold fell to $4,106.82 per ounce, with a daily loss of $250 [6] - Silver also saw a decline, dropping over 8% and falling below $48 per ounce [6] Geopolitical Impact - The changing dynamics of the Russia-Ukraine situation have introduced volatility in the gold market, with European leaders expressing strong support for Ukraine [7] - Analysts suggest that the current ETF holdings in gold are not at peak levels, indicating potential for further price adjustments if US economic data shows strength [7][8]

值得注意的是，从今年上半年的数据来看，金添动漫的业绩增速有所放缓。今年上半年，金添动漫营收 4.44亿元，同比增长9.82%；净利润7004.1万元，同比增长13.45%。分品类来看，其糖果和饼干收入分 别同比增长37.75%、25.63%，但膨化食品、巧克力、海苔零食的收入分别同比下滑16.9%、19.8%、 30.81%。 就港股上市的相关问题，北京商报记者对金添动漫进行电话采访，被对方告知"目前不接受任何采访"。 随后，记者向金添动漫发去采访函，截至发稿，也未收到进一步回复。 手握奥特曼、小马宝莉、蜡笔小新等多个热门IP授权，广东金添动漫股份有限公司（以下简称"金添动 漫"）正冲刺港股IPO。10月20日，金添动漫向港交所递交上市申请，招商证券国际和中国银河国际为 联席保荐人。依靠"IP+玩具"作为卖点，金添动漫近年来增长势头强劲，然而今年上半年，其业绩增速 有所放缓。此外，金添动漫拥有的26个IP全部来自外部授权，在一定程度上也为其后续发展埋下隐患。 金添动漫方面也坦言："能否维持现有授权协议，很大程度上取决于我们与IP所有者或授权方的关系。" 转战港交所 作为国内首批将动漫IP与食品相融合的企业，目 ...

Group 1 - In the third quarter, northbound capital experienced a net outflow of approximately 159.3 billion, with significant selling in cyclical sectors such as banking and non-bank financials, while technology sectors like electronics and automotive saw inflows [4][9][10] - The top three sectors for northbound capital inflows were electronics (27.8 billion), automotive (19.1 billion), and electric equipment (13.1 billion), while the largest outflows were from banking (-60 billion), non-bank financials (-36.3 billion), and food and beverage (-32.8 billion) [4][10] - Notable individual stocks with the highest net purchases included BYD (17.8 billion), CATL (16.6 billion), and Northern Huachuang (14.2 billion), while the most sold stocks were Kweichow Moutai (-17.2 billion), Changjiang Electric Power (-12.5 billion), and Agricultural Bank of China (-10.9 billion) [4][12] Group 2 - The liquidity indicators showed a net inflow of 250.1 billion in ETFs, while financing capital turned to a net outflow of 128.1 billion, indicating a shift in market sentiment [3][28] - The issuance of public funds increased by 5.73 billion, reflecting a strong demand for equity investments despite the overall market conditions [3][28] - The market sentiment was characterized by a decrease in trading activity for financing funds, with the proportion of financing transactions in A-share trading declining to 12.4% [38][40] Group 3 - The sectors that attracted significant net inflows included non-ferrous metals, banking, and non-bank financials, with inflows of 61.5 billion, 85.9 billion, and 60 billion respectively [48][49] - Conversely, sectors such as telecommunications, basic chemicals, and transportation experienced notable net outflows [48][49] - The individual stocks with the highest net purchases in financing included Zijin Mining (+1.58 billion), Zhongjin Gold (+0.78 billion), and Beijing Junzheng (+0.75 billion), while the largest net sales were from Xinyi Semiconductor (-2.48 billion), Industrial Fulian (-1.02 billion), and Ping An Insurance (-0.81 billion) [50]

Core Insights - The 113th National Sugar and Wine Products Trade Fair and the 22nd China International Agricultural Products Trade Fair showcased new agricultural products and technologies, reflecting evolving industry trends and consumer preferences [1] Group 1: Technological Innovations - The introduction of a digital traceability system allows over 70 types of fruits and vegetables to be tracked from soil to table, enhancing food safety and quality [3] - The development of proprietary seed varieties, such as "Damo Jiaozi No. 1," demonstrates advancements in agricultural biotechnology, contributing to improved nutritional content [2] - The integration of smart management systems in livestock farming has reduced costs by over 30%, showcasing the impact of technology on agricultural efficiency [3] Group 2: Health and Consumer Trends - The rising demand for low-GI (glycemic index) foods has led to significant growth in product offerings, with sales of low-GI items increasing from under 1 million yuan to nearly 60 million yuan in just a few months [4] - Consumers are increasingly prioritizing health, as evidenced by the popularity of low-sugar bread and the demand for high-quality agricultural products with traceability [4] Group 3: New Business Models - The combination of online and offline sales strategies is transforming the agricultural market, with e-commerce and live-streaming becoming essential tools for product promotion [5] - The rural online retail market is projected to reach 2.56 trillion yuan in 2024, indicating a significant increase in digital commerce within the agricultural sector [5] Group 4: Trade Fair Dynamics - The trade fairs have evolved into comprehensive platforms that connect industry, consumers, and various business models, attracting thousands of exhibitors and professional visitors [6] - The 113th Sugar and Wine Fair attracted around 4,000 exhibitors and over 400,000 professional visitors, highlighting its significance in the industry [6]

Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 0.09%, the Nasdaq declining by 0.13%, and the S&P 500 increasing by 0.01% [1] Commodity Stocks - Gold and silver-related stocks experienced significant declines, with Hecla Mining dropping over 10%, First Majestic Silver falling more than 9%, and Pan American Silver decreasing by over 8%. Additionally, Kinross Gold and Harmony Gold both saw declines exceeding 9% [1] Company Developments - Sea Group's CEO Forrest Li expressed ambitions for the company's market value to reach $1 trillion, which would require a tenfold increase from its current valuation of $98.1 billion, driven by AI business expansion [2] - Amazon is advancing its automation plans, potentially avoiding the hiring of over 160,000 employees by 2027 and more than 600,000 by 2033, according to leaked documents. Amazon stated that the documents do not represent the overall hiring strategy [2] - Tesla's shareholders are being urged to vote against Elon Musk's compensation package, which could jeopardize a potential $1 trillion payout for him [3] - Unilever announced a delay in the spin-off of its Magnum ice cream brand due to the U.S. government shutdown, affecting the registration process with the SEC. The company remains committed to completing the spin-off by 2025 [4]

Core Viewpoint - Guangdong Jintian Animation Co., Ltd. is seeking an IPO on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, leveraging its popular IPs like Ultraman and My Little Pony, but faces challenges due to reliance on external IP licenses and a slowdown in growth in the first half of the year [1][4]. Company Overview - Founded in 2011, Jintian Animation is one of the first companies in China to integrate anime IP with food products, primarily producing and selling IP-themed snacks under brands like "Tianle Cartoon King" and "TALA'S" [3]. - The company previously listed on the New Third Board in 2016 but delisted in 2021 to improve operational efficiency and decision-making [3]. Financial Performance - Revenue projections for 2022-2024 are 596 million, 664 million, and 877 million yuan, with net profits of 36.7 million, 75.2 million, and 130 million yuan respectively. The growth rates for 2023 and 2024 are 11.41% and 32.08% for revenue, and 104.92% and 72.82% for net profit [4]. - In the first half of 2025, revenue was 444 million yuan, a 9.82% increase year-on-year, while net profit was 70.04 million yuan, up 13.45% [4]. IP Dependency - Jintian Animation relies entirely on external IP licenses, with 99.5% of its revenue coming from these sources. The company has 26 IPs, including popular ones from Japan and the U.S. [6][8]. - The company has spent over 100 million yuan on IP licensing fees from 2022 to 2025, with a significant portion of its IP agreements requiring regular renewal [7]. Marketing and Sales Strategy - The company employs a multi-channel marketing strategy, with a focus on offline sales through over 2,600 distributors, covering more than 1,700 counties in China [9]. - The share of revenue from direct sales to retailers has increased significantly, from 3.5% in 2022 to 43.2% in the first half of 2025, while the share from distributors has decreased [9]. E-commerce Development - Jintian Animation's e-commerce channel is still in the exploratory phase, with online sales accounting for only 0.2% of revenue in 2024, increasing to 1.1% in the first half of 2025 [10]. - The company aims to establish a sales and marketing team in Southeast Asia to better understand local market demands and consumer preferences [11].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a collective rise, with foreign investors expressing optimism about China's market, particularly highlighting the potential for growth in the A-share index compared to other emerging markets like India [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance and Investor Sentiment - The A-share indices collectively rose on the 21st, with the Shanghai Composite Index reclaiming the 3900-point mark [1]. - UBS has maintained an "overweight" rating on China within emerging markets, citing faster revenue and earnings growth compared to India, and improvements in capital return rates for the MSCI China Index [1][3]. - Since October, A-shares have shifted from a "technology growth" style to a "value dividend" style, influenced by factors such as renewed US-China trade tensions and profit-taking by investors [1][3]. Group 2: Foreign Investment Trends - Foreign investors have been actively targeting leading A-share stocks, with significant holdings in companies like Siyuan Electric, Huaming Equipment, and Hongfa Technology, each having over 24% foreign ownership [2][6]. - As of the end of September, major foreign-favored stocks included Kweichow Moutai, Ping An Insurance, and Wuliangye, with foreign institutional holdings reaching 85, 83, and 81 respectively [6]. - The banking sector remains a strong focus for foreign investors, with seven of the top ten A-share companies by foreign holdings being banks [6][7]. Group 3: Market Outlook and Strategic Focus - UBS believes that the A-share market will continue to perform well in the medium term, with growth styles likely to outperform value styles [9]. - Investors are encouraged to focus on companies with strong fundamentals and pricing power to navigate uncertainties in the trade environment [10]. - The upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan" is expected to provide investment opportunities, particularly in areas like "anti-involution" and service consumption, which may drive cyclical improvements in various industries [10][11].

上证指数又突破了3900，但今天又是老登们心态裂开的一天。上周的时候老登股虽然也没怎么涨，但看着小登们挨打，跌得稀里哗啦，心态上总是平衡了 不少。 结果那个制造上周混乱的人自上周五起不断改变口吻，小登们这周又开始活蹦乱跳，而老登们依然在垂头丧气，分外难受与迷茫。 最近不断有人来问老消费等同类型白马公司的抄底问题，确确实实它们调整的时间足够长（21年上半年至今，4年有余），调整的幅度也足够大（4、50甚 至更高的跌幅大把），估值现在也不高（以典型白酒为代表，估值处在10%的历史分位），是很容易让人觉得，但凡来点催化剂，就会起飞的方向。 问题是，这个催化剂，这个春天还有多远。 短期是数据不行 市场对老登们不理不睬，短期核心问题是没有基本面。 昨天官方发布了9月的宏观经济数据，跟消费相关的几个数据，比如社零，房价，还有之前发布的通胀数据，可以来看下。 9月社零增速是3%，相比8月继续放缓，全年5月达到高峰，后面逐月不断下降。 社零是个总量，其中与老登们又相对密切的有餐饮，餐饮行业增速6月发生了断崖式下跌，7、8月有微微好转，但9月又重新大幅掉头向下，仅增长了 0.9%，其中规模以上的餐饮企业的收入表现更差，下滑了1 ...