食品饮料 2025 年 09 月 21 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 0% 10% 19% 29% 38% 48% 2024-09 2025-01 2025-05 食品饮料 沪深300 相关研究报告 《8 月社零增速环比放缓，消费动能仍 待提振—行业点评报告》-2025.9.17 《白酒底部等待回暖，西麦食养赛道 可期—行业周报》-2025.9.14 《白酒筑底，新消费领航—行业周报》 -2025.9.7 社零降速，食饮分化 ——行业周报 9 月 15 日-9 月 19 日，食品饮料指数跌幅为 2.5%，一级子行业排名第 23，跑输 沪深 300 约 2.1pct，子行业中预加工食品（+0.3%）、软饮料（+0.1%）、保健品 （+0.0%）表现相对领先。2025 年 8 月社会消费品零售总额同比+3.4%，增速环 比 7 月-0.3pct，8 月社零数据增速进一步走弱，一方面"以旧换新"政策效应的 边际减弱，家电音像、家具、通讯器材等增速环比回落；另一方消费需求仍然偏 弱，粮油食品、烟酒类消费增速也有回落。2025 年 8 月餐饮及限额以上餐饮收 入同比分别+2.1%、+1.0%， ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "In line with the market," indicating that the industry index is expected to fluctuate between -10% to 10% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [58]. Core Insights - The food and beverage sector showed a slight increase, primarily affected by the decline in the liquor segment. In May 2025, the sector's overall performance was a 0.25% increase, with significant net outflows from major funds totaling 15.43 billion yuan, while small investors showed a net inflow of 15.57 billion yuan, indicating a positive sentiment among retail investors [5][7]. - The valuation of the food and beverage sector has decreased slightly, currently at 21.50 times earnings, which is at a ten-year historical low. The liquor segment's valuation is even lower at 19.06 times [18][23]. - In May 2025, over 70% of the listed companies in the food and beverage sector saw their stock prices rise, with notable increases in other liquor, health products, snacks, dairy, and soft drinks [23][24]. - Investment in the food and beverage manufacturing sector has continued to grow significantly, with fixed asset investments in food manufacturing up 16.6% year-on-year as of April 2025, compared to a 4% increase in overall social fixed asset investments [27][31]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The food and beverage sector experienced a slight increase of 0.25% in May 2025, heavily influenced by the liquor segment's decline. Major funds saw a net outflow of 15.43 billion yuan, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 15.57 billion yuan [5][7]. - The sector's performance was better than the same period last year, with significant gains in other liquor, health products, soft drinks, baking, and pre-processed foods, which rose by 20.71%, 19.62%, 10.99%, 8.25%, and 6.42% respectively [8][11]. 2. Valuation - As of May 31, 2025, the food and beverage sector's valuation is at 21.50 times earnings, slightly down from 21.59 times the previous month, marking a ten-year low. The liquor segment's valuation is at 19.06 times, while health products, snacks, and other segments exceed 30 times [18][23]. 3. Individual Stock Performance - In May 2025, 90 out of 127 listed companies in the food and beverage sector reported stock price increases, with a rise rate of 70.87%. Notable performers included companies in the liquor, health products, dairy, and snack sectors [23][24]. 4. Investment Trends - The food and beverage manufacturing sector's investment growth has continued to exceed the overall social investment growth, with fixed asset investments in food manufacturing up 16.6% year-on-year as of April 2025 [27][31]. - The report recommends focusing on investment opportunities in soft drinks, health products, baking, beer, and snacks for June 2025, highlighting the potential for growth in these segments [52][55].

Group 1: Core Insights - The report from CITIC Securities highlights the importance of boosting consumption as a key driver for economic growth, with the food and beverage sector expected to benefit significantly from this focus on domestic demand [1] - The white liquor sector is projected to achieve total revenue of 441.94 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 7.66%, with net profit expected to reach 166.85 billion yuan, also up 7.60% [1] - The beer segment is showing signs of recovery, with sales and profit margins improving, indicating that it may have entered a growth phase [19] Group 2: Sector Analysis - **White Liquor**: The industry is currently facing a deep adjustment period, with sales pressures due to weak demand in gifting and banquet consumption, but leading companies are expected to strengthen their market positions through brand and operational advantages [1][6] - **Pre-processed Foods**: The sector is experiencing weak performance due to sluggish B-end restaurant demand, but is expected to benefit from a recovery in the C-end market, particularly in pre-prepared dishes [17] - **Dairy Products**: The dairy sector's revenue for 2024 is projected at 292.5 billion yuan, down 7.7% year-on-year, with net profit declining by 38.5% to 12.92 billion yuan [21][22] - **Snack Foods**: The sector is thriving, particularly with the popularity of konjac products, and companies are adapting to new retail formats like discount stores [24] - **Soft Drinks**: The functional beverage market continues to expand, with a notable increase in demand for sugar-free tea and functional drinks [26] - **Yellow Wine**: Leading companies in the yellow wine sector are expanding their advantages and driving the industry's high-end development [30]

白酒：五一临近关注宴席场景拉动，Q1 板块释压预计总体持平微增。本周白酒板块-1.75%， 表现弱于食品饮料整体以及沪深 300，我们认为主要系：①当前处白酒消费淡季，需求端总体 仍偏弱；②25Q1 行业主动调整去库存&高基数背景下报表端预计承压。本周舍得酒业、华致 酒行发布一季报，天佑德酒、顺鑫农业、五粮液、老白干酒发布年报&一季报，总体表现符合 预期（五粮液25Q1略超预期），从目前发布的酒企财报来看预计降速释压仍是酒企24Q4&25Q1 主旋律。五一旺季来临各头部品牌纷纷加码婚宴投入力度，从多地酒店宴席预订量增长情况来 看，五一期间白酒宴席场景预计有增长，或加速行业库存去化节奏，助力行业逐步走出调整。 4 月 25 日中央政治局会议提到，要加紧实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，用好用足更加积极的 财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，同时，还提到将通过创设新工具精准引导资金流向科技创新、 扩大消费、稳定外贸等领域。当前（2025-04-26）申万白酒指数 PE-TTM 为 19.44X，处于近 10 年 11.49%的合理偏低水位，在中央政治局会议积极定调背景下，建议关注后续具体刺激政 策出台为板块带来的估值修复机会 ...