Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the shift in consumer behavior in China, where spending is increasingly viewed as a form of investment rather than mere consumption, reflecting a desire for value retention and appreciation in purchases [5][15][48]. Group 1: Consumer Behavior Trends - In Shanghai, large-scale consumption vouchers have led to significant increases in sales, particularly in gold jewelry, indicating a strong consumer interest in both consumption and investment [2][3]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data shows a stark contrast between the rising prices of gold (up 40.1%) and the overall CPI, which decreased by 0.1%, highlighting a trend where consumers are prioritizing investment-like purchases [3][5]. - The concept of "investment-style consumption" is becoming prevalent, where consumers are not just buying goods but are also considering their potential for value retention and appreciation [6][17][24]. Group 2: Policy and Economic Context - The Chinese government has implemented various policies to stimulate consumption, including subsidies for replacing old goods, which have significantly boosted sales across multiple categories [7][8]. - Despite the push for increased consumer spending, the actual contribution of consumption to GDP has remained relatively stable, indicating that the growth in consumer loans has not translated into proportional increases in retail sales [18][20]. - Recent trends show a surge in consumer loans, with banks aggressively promoting these products, but much of this borrowing is being redirected towards investments rather than direct consumption [21][22]. Group 3: Service Consumption - There is a notable shift towards service consumption, which includes spending on experiences rather than physical goods, yet this segment remains underreported in official statistics [30][32]. - Current data indicates that while product consumption has returned to historical levels, service consumption lags behind at only 87.7% of historical trends, suggesting untapped potential in this area [34][38]. - The quality and quantity of service supply are critical to meeting consumer demand, and enhancing service offerings could be a key strategy for stimulating further consumption growth [35][41].

Group 1 - International spot gold prices experienced significant volatility, dropping to $3301 per ounce before rebounding to $3333 per ounce [1] - Domestic gold jewelry prices have also declined, with brands like Chow Tai Fook reporting a drop of 7 yuan per gram, bringing the price to 978 yuan per gram [3] - The Shanghai Gold Exchange issued a notice emphasizing the need for market risk control due to recent instability and urged members to enhance risk awareness and maintain market stability [3] Group 2 - There has been a notable shift in consumer preferences towards smaller weight gold jewelry to mitigate risks associated with price fluctuations [5][6] - The popularity of traditional gold, enamel, and intricately carved products has increased among consumers [6] - The "old for new" and recycling business for gold items is thriving, with many consumers opting to exchange old gold for new pieces or cash in on high prices [6] Group 3 - The People's Bank of China has continued to increase its gold reserves, accumulating 1.03 million ounces over the past seven months, although the pace of purchases has slowed [8] - Analysts suggest that the ongoing geopolitical and economic changes may lead to a prolonged period of rising gold prices, reducing the necessity to pause gold purchases for cost control [8] - A survey by the World Gold Council indicates that 69% of central banks expect the share of gold in global reserves to increase over the next five years, contrasting with a decline in the share of US dollar reserves [8][9] Group 4 - The World Gold Council believes that gold prices still have potential for growth, as global trade tensions and rising tariffs have not yet significantly increased inflation [9] - Economic slowdowns may pressure stock markets and cyclical commodities, positioning gold as one of the few resilient assets in a stagflation environment [9]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in international gold prices and their impact on domestic gold jewelry consumption, highlighting a shift in consumer behavior towards smaller gold items and increased interest in gold recycling and exchange programs [1][3][5][7]. Group 1: Gold Price Fluctuations - On June 10, international gold prices experienced significant volatility, dropping to $3301 per ounce before rebounding to $3332.63 per ounce [1]. - The Shanghai Gold Exchange issued a notice urging members to enhance risk management due to the unstable market conditions affecting precious metal prices [1]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior Changes - Despite the fluctuations in gold prices, consumer interest in gold jewelry remains, with daily transactions still reaching dozens, and peaking at over a hundred on weekends [3]. - Consumers are increasingly favoring smaller weight gold products to mitigate risks associated with price volatility, as well as preferring traditional gold, enamel, and intricately carved items [5]. Group 3: Gold Recycling and Exchange - The "exchange old for new" and gold recycling businesses are gaining traction, with many consumers opting to trade in older gold items for new ones or cashing out at high prices [7]. - Some jewelry stores are offering free gold testing services to facilitate the exchange process, leading to a significant increase in exchange business volume, reportedly by over 30% to 50% [9]. Group 4: Central Bank Gold Reserves - As of the end of May, China's central bank reported a gold reserve of 73.83 million ounces (approximately 2296.37 tons), reflecting a month-on-month increase of 6,000 ounces [11]. - The World Gold Council's survey indicates that 69% of central banks expect the share of gold in global reserves to rise over the next five years, contrasting with a declining expectation for the share of U.S. dollar reserves [11].

证 券 研 究 报 告 内需崛起，挖掘新消费的情绪曲线 2025夏季电商零售投资策略 证券分析师：赵令伊 A0230518100003 研究支持：李秀琳 A0230123070007 2025.6.10 投资主线 ◼ 主线1：新消费高景气，情绪价值满足的供给升级 • 工艺变迁升级下，行业转向产品设计和品牌化能力比拼，金饰迎来产品及品牌长周期beta，而传统品牌产品同质化及渠道竞争仍在调整。 建议关注具备产品差异化和高品牌认知的优质品牌：老铺黄金、潮宏基、曼卡龙、 菜百股份、莱绅通灵、周大生、老凤祥。 • 情绪消费崛起，中国人均IP消费有巨大潜力空间。聚焦IP经济，赋予产品更大商业附加值，将成为消费品牌构建差异化的重要竞争力。 建议关注：名创优品、量子之歌。 1. 宏观：内需提振，政策加力推动新消费 3 ◼ 主线2：增长势能延续，AI、即时零售开拓增量 • 平台竞争维度延展，对商家及用户生态、AI和即时零售潜力新业务、出海扩张等新增长极加大布局，持续投入蓄力，有望带动长期增长 正循环，看好平台高质量增长势能。推荐：阿里巴巴、美团、拼多多、京东 。 ◼ 主线3：贸易不确定性加剧，消费内循环重要性提升。 • 关税波 ...

Core Insights - The report maintains an "outperform" rating for the retail sector, highlighting a stable performance during the 618 shopping festival, with significant growth in sales and user engagement across major platforms like JD and Tmall [1][2][10] - New consumption trends are emerging, driven by instant retail and AI technology, enhancing consumer interaction and operational efficiency for merchants [2][20][24] Retail Sector Performance - During the 618 promotional period, JD reported over 200% year-on-year growth in transaction volume, order quantity, and number of users within the first hour of the event [1][10] - Tmall's first phase saw 217 brands surpassing 100 million yuan in sales, indicating strong brand performance [1][10] - Instant retail platforms like Meituan have also shown impressive results, with over 50 product categories experiencing more than 100% growth compared to the previous year [10][20] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors with strong growth potential, including: 1. **Beauty and Personal Care**: Companies like Dongkang Oral Care and Maogeping are expected to achieve significant growth due to innovative product offerings and effective use of e-commerce channels [2][3] 2. **Gold and Jewelry**: The sector is anticipated to benefit from a low base effect in Q2, with brands like Chaohongji and Caibai showing promising sales [3][12] 3. **IP Toys**: Companies like Pop Mart and Blokus are well-positioned to capitalize on the emotional value for young consumers and the potential for overseas market expansion [3][12] 4. **Cross-border E-commerce**: Brands like Anker Innovations are expected to leverage favorable trade conditions for growth [3] Market Trends - The retail sector is experiencing a shift towards simplified promotional rules and extended event durations, with Tmall starting pre-sales earlier than in previous years [19] - AI technology is increasingly integrated into retail operations, enhancing customer service and marketing effectiveness [24][28] Recent Industry Data - In April, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 37,174 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.1%, indicating a steady recovery in consumer spending [28][29] - Online retail sales for the first four months of 2025 reached 47,419 billion yuan, growing by 7.7% year-on-year, with physical goods online sales accounting for 24.3% of total retail sales [29][30] Stock Performance - In May 2025, the retail index rose by 1.66%, slightly underperforming the CSI 300 index, while the beauty and personal care index increased by 2.55%, outperforming the broader market [42][47] - Notable stock performers in the retail sector included Liren Liyang and Ruoyuchen, with significant price increases [52][55]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **New Consumption Market**: The new consumption market has seen a significant increase in attention, with investors actively seeking potential stocks. Traditional leading companies also present investment opportunities due to high dividends and competitiveness [1][6] - **Investment Focus for 2025**: Key investment themes include the rise of domestic brands, emotional consumption, the silver economy, and AI smart home products [1][11] Core Insights and Arguments - **Consumer Trends**: The new consumption sector is characterized by a shift towards products that reflect future consumption trends, such as trendy toys, gold jewelry, and beauty products. Companies with strong market positions and high growth potential are recommended despite their valuations being relatively high [1][9] - **Tea Beverage Industry**: The tea beverage sector is thriving, with chain tea brands being the top recommendation. Companies like Mixue Ice City and Gu Ming are highlighted for their unique business models and growth potential [1][29][31] - **Gold and Jewelry Sector**: The gold and jewelry sector benefits from rising gold prices and increased penetration of premium gold jewelry. Companies like Lao Pu Gold and Chow Tai Fook are recommended for their strong brand positioning and product differentiation [4][34][37] Notable Companies and Their Performance - **Pop Mart and Miniso**: These companies are recognized as leaders in the trendy toy industry, with successful overseas market expansions and innovative product offerings [1][27][52] - **Beauty Sector**: Companies like Juzi Biotechnology and Runben are noted for their solid fundamentals and reasonable valuations, despite some short-term growth slowdowns [4][43][44] - **Children's Retail**: Kid's King is highlighted for its robust growth in direct sales and rapid expansion of its franchise business [4][38] Additional Important Insights - **Market Volatility**: The new consumption sector is expected to experience increased volatility, with many stocks having already seen significant price increases. The focus should remain on companies with strong growth prospects and competitive advantages [9][10] - **Investment Opportunities in Hong Kong and A-shares**: The top ten new consumption companies in Hong Kong and A-shares include Pop Mart, Miniso, and others, indicating a broad interest in this sector [8][11] - **Emerging Trends**: The rise of emotional consumption and the demand for personalized products are reshaping consumer preferences, leading to opportunities for companies that can innovate and adapt [13][44] Conclusion The new consumption market is evolving rapidly, with significant opportunities in various sectors such as trendy toys, beauty products, and gold jewelry. Companies that can leverage these trends and maintain strong growth trajectories are likely to attract investor interest.

Summary of the Conference Call for Chao Hong Ji Company Overview - **Company**: Chao Hong Ji - **Industry**: Gold and Jewelry Key Points and Arguments Performance and Strategy - Chao Hong Ji improved customer traffic and shopping conversion rates through product structure adjustments and channel optimization, outperforming industry averages, especially in Q1 of this year [2][4] - The number of direct-operated stores decreased to approximately 240, but single-store revenue increased significantly, directly enhancing profit performance [2][5] - The company shifted its product focus from 18K gold to gold jewelry, which, despite lower gross margins, has led to stable revenue growth as the income structure stabilizes [2][6] - The expansion of the franchise model has also improved gross margins, with a notable increase in franchise revenue share in Q1 [2][6] Market Dynamics - The overall gold jewelry industry is experiencing a downturn, with high gold prices and declining wedding demand leading to reduced consumption [2][9] - Chao Hong Ji successfully differentiated itself with its traditional gold products, while competitors like Lao Feng Xiang and Zhou Da Sheng are closing stores, providing opportunities for Chao Hong Ji to open new locations [2][9] Future Outlook - The company has an optimistic performance outlook, with expectations for terminal GMV to reach 9.5 million, corresponding to reported revenue of 3.5 million [2][3][10] - The asset structure is rapidly improving, with over 70% of the asset proportion being fixed-price assets, which is expected to reflect positively in the upcoming financial reports [10] - The investment return cycle for Chao Hong Ji is approximately 4 years, significantly shorter than the over 6 years for competitors, making it attractive for franchisees [4][12] International Expansion - Chao Hong Ji plans to open 200 to 300 stores in Southeast Asia and Asia, targeting regions with strong gold jewelry consumption habits, which could contribute approximately 600 to 800 million in revenue [15] - The company is set to open a store in Singapore in June, with positive sales expectations from previously opened stores in Thailand [13][14] Financial Projections - Domestic growth is primarily driven by franchise competition, with projected earnings of approximately 750 million by 2027, plus an additional 120 million from overseas operations, totaling around 800 to 900 million [16] - The current market valuation of around 12 billion is considered to be at an absolute bottom, with significant upward potential based on short-term performance and mid-term international expansion [16] Additional Important Insights - Chao Hong Ji's ability to adapt quickly to market changes through a robust digital system and strong control over franchisees has been a key factor in its superior performance compared to peers [2][7] - The company has effectively reduced opening costs compared to traditional brands by lowering initial inventory requirements for franchisees, allowing for better responsiveness to consumer preferences [11]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the participation of the time-honored brand Laomannian at the Jiangsu Old Brand Expo, showcasing its rich heritage and innovative products, while promoting the integration of traditional craftsmanship with modern consumer demands [1][5]. Group 1: Company Heritage and Achievements - Laomannian, founded in 1710, has a history of over 300 years and has received numerous accolades, including recognition as a "Century-Old Meritorious Enterprise" and "Advanced Unit for Inheritance and Innovation" [2]. - The brand is known for its non-material cultural heritage in gold and silver craftsmanship, having participated in significant national events such as the G20 and the centenary of the Communist Party [2]. Group 2: Product Showcase and Consumer Engagement - At the expo, Laomannian's booth featured exquisite products, including the "Blooming Flower Silk Treasure Box," which combines traditional craftsmanship with modern design, attracting a diverse audience [3][4]. - The booth's atmosphere was lively, with staff engaging visitors by sharing the brand's history and craftsmanship, enhancing consumer appreciation for traditional arts [2][3]. Group 3: Cultural Preservation and Innovation - Laomannian emphasizes the preservation of cultural heritage while innovating its product offerings, recently opening the Jiangnan Garden-style Gold Museum to enhance cultural experiences [4]. - The museum features a non-material heritage workshop where artisans demonstrate traditional goldsmithing techniques, further promoting the brand's commitment to cultural transmission [4]. Group 4: Market Positioning and Consumer Trends - The brand aims to meet the evolving consumer demands for personalized and culturally rich products, positioning itself as a leader in the new consumption landscape [5][6]. - By participating in the expo, Laomannian seeks to enhance its market presence and contribute to the promotion of traditional culture while driving economic circulation [6].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the new consumption sector, focusing on industries such as daily chemicals, personal care, and health products, which are entering a product upgrade cycle with strong sustainability [1][5]. Key Points and Arguments - **New Consumption Drivers**: The current wave of new consumption is driven by product renewal and innovation rather than relying on traffic purchases. Companies need stronger content marketing capabilities and market insight, making innovation a key competitive factor [1][3]. - **Market Characteristics**: The new consumption market is characterized by a shift from functional needs to emotional value needs, with traditional products being revamped to meet these new demands [4][5]. - **Market Volatility**: Recent fluctuations in the new consumption market are considered normal after significant growth phases. The current cycle is less elastic compared to the previous one, with a focus on replacing and upgrading existing products [3][6]. - **Valuation Metrics**: Most new consumption companies have a PEG ratio between 1 and 1.3, indicating they may be slightly overvalued. However, there is potential for valuation recovery as risk appetite increases [7]. - **Impact of Shareholder Actions**: Shareholder sell-offs do not necessarily indicate a peak in stock prices, as they can be influenced by various factors. As long as risk appetite remains stable and innovation cycles continue, the new consumption sector still has growth potential [8]. Industry Trends - **Sustained Innovation**: Industries such as beauty, snacks, gold and jewelry, trendy toys, and tea drinks are expected to maintain high-frequency innovation, while stable categories like daily chemicals and personal care are entering a more robust upgrade cycle [5][9]. - **Investment Recommendations**: Traditional growth companies in sectors like beverages and beer are recommended for investment due to their lower valuations and higher cost-effectiveness. Emerging growth companies like Ruoyuchen and Jingbo Biological are also highlighted for their innovative capabilities [2][10]. Potential Investment Opportunities - **Specific Companies**: In the cosmetics sector, companies like Juzhi Biological and Runben Co. are noted for their stability and growth potential. In the food and beverage sector, companies such as Yanjinpuzi and Weilong Food are performing well, with others like Bailong Chuangyuan and Three Squirrels also identified as promising investments [11]. Conclusion - The new consumption sector may experience a consolidation phase, but this does not imply an end to growth. Traditional growth companies may outperform during this period, suggesting a need for dynamic adjustments in investment strategies to optimize returns [12].

Group 1 - China Pacific Insurance launched a private equity fund with a target size of 20 billion yuan, emphasizing long-term investment principles [1] - China Chengtong's subsidiary subscribed to the initial shares of three ETFs, signaling strong confidence in the long-term value of state-owned enterprises [1] - The approval of the first batch of new floating fee rate funds indicates a shift towards performance-based management fees, enhancing the attractiveness of long-term investments [1] Group 2 - The electricity trading market in China is undergoing significant changes due to the implementation of market-oriented pricing reforms for renewable energy [2] - There has been a fourfold increase in consultation requests and a twofold increase in order volume for electricity trading services, driven by the entry of renewable energy into the market [2] - AI technology is increasingly integrated into the electricity trading process, enhancing decision-making and market operations [2] Group 3 - The innovative drug sector, particularly in Hong Kong, has shown remarkable performance, with several ETFs in this category rising over 50% this year [3] - Domestic innovative drugs are gaining global competitiveness, attracting international investors and marking a transition from "follower" to "leader" in the market [3] - Hong Kong is identified as a key market for investing in innovative drugs, with a focus on globally competitive companies [3] Group 4 - Multiple economic stimulus policies are expected to be introduced, focusing on sectors like "two new" and "two heavy" industries, as well as stabilizing foreign trade [4] - The issuance of new equity funds has seen a resurgence, with several funds raising over 1 billion yuan since June [4] - There is a notable trend of funds concentrating on high-performing managers, reflecting a shift in investor preferences [4] Group 5 - The popularity of floating management fee funds is on the rise, with one fund reaching its 2 billion yuan cap within six days of launch [5] - The A-share market's structural opportunities and positive long-term trends are contributing to the demand for actively managed products [5] - Fund managers are particularly optimistic about investments in innovative drugs and AI technologies [5] Group 6 - Infrastructure investment has been robust this year, supported by proactive fiscal policies and accelerated bond issuance [6] - Despite positive fundamentals, some high-frequency data related to construction funding shows weaknesses, indicating untapped investment potential [6] - Mid-cap stocks have performed well, with several thematic funds seeing significant net value increases [6] Group 7 - The issuance of new floating fee rate funds has led to a slight recovery in the equity fund market, with 22 new funds established in the first week of June [7] - The total issuance scale for new funds reached 31.01 billion yuan, with bond funds making up over half of the total [7] - There is a noticeable trend of limited enthusiasm for equity products, as indicated by the smaller average size of newly established stock funds [7] Group 8 - Jiangsu Province has introduced measures to boost consumption, including allowing family members to withdraw housing provident fund for down payments [8] - Various cities have adjusted housing provident fund policies to enhance its support for housing consumption [8] Group 9 - Newly listed stocks in the Hong Kong market have shown impressive gains, with some stocks increasing by over 164% since their IPO [9] - Despite the strong performance of new stocks, market volatility poses risks, and investors should be cautious of potential price corrections [9] - The expiration of lock-up periods for certain shareholders may lead to short-term pressure on stock prices [9] Group 10 - The brain-computer interface sector is experiencing unprecedented growth, with significant advancements in technology and clinical applications [10] - The first batch of flexible high-throughput semi-invasive brain-computer systems has been successfully implanted, showing over 98% effectiveness in signal collection [10] - 2025 is anticipated to be a pivotal year for clinical applications in this field, with multiple companies making progress in their technologies [10]