Core Viewpoint - China Heartland Fertilizer (01866) reported a mixed performance in its recent earnings, with revenue growth but a decline in net profit, indicating challenges in pricing and market conditions [1] Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 12.666 billion yuan in the first half of the year, representing a year-on-year increase of 4% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 599 million yuan, showing a year-on-year decline of 14.41% [1] Price and Demand Dynamics - The decline in product prices at the beginning of the year negatively impacted overall performance, but there was a noticeable recovery in product prices in the second quarter as downstream demand began to release [1] - In the second quarter, the prices of urea and melamine increased significantly, with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 10% and 11% respectively [1] Sales Volume Growth - The company experienced substantial growth in sales volume, with compound fertilizer and melamine sales increasing by 29% and 20% quarter-on-quarter respectively, driven by an expanding sales network [1] Profitability Improvement - The gross profit in the second quarter increased by 44% quarter-on-quarter, contributing to a net profit growth of approximately 259 million yuan, marking a significant increase of 104% [1]

智通财经APP获悉，中国心连心化肥(01866)午后涨近5%，截至发稿，涨4.85%，报7.14港元，成交额 3209万港元。 消息面上，中国心连心化肥近日发布业绩，上半年实现营业收入126.66亿元，同比增长4%；实现扣非 归母净利润5.99亿元，同比下滑14.41%。华鑫证券指出，公司年初产品价格下行拖累上半年整体价格表 现，但随着下游需求逐步释放，第二季度产品价格环比明显回升。 从第二季度单季业绩表现来看，公司各产品售价均呈显著向好态势，其中，尿素及三聚氰胺表现突出， 其售价环比分别增长10%和11%。此外，得益于销售网络的持续密植，复合肥及三聚氰胺的销量环比分 别增长29%和20%。在售价与销量的双重向好推动下，第二季度毛利环比提升44%，有效带动集团第二 季度净利润环比增长约2.59亿元，增幅高达104%。 ...

Revenue and Earnings Performance - Fertiglobe reported Q2 2025 revenue of $566 million, exceeding consensus expectations of $509 million by 11%[5] - Adjusted net income for Q2 2025 was approximately $12 million, falling short of the consensus estimate of $20 million by 42%[5] - The company's EBITDA margin for Q2 2025 was 31%, down from 38% in Q1 2025[5] Dividend and Share Buyback Plans - Fertiglobe announced a dividend of 4.4 fils per share for the first half of 2025, down from 6.6 fils in the same period of 2024[1] - The company plans a stock buyback program worth $31 million[1] Strategic Goals and Market Outlook - Fertiglobe reiterated its strategic goal of achieving over $1 billion in EBITDA by 2030[2] - The company highlighted a tight supply in the urea market, expecting limited supply growth to support prices in the long term[1] Cost Management and Capital Expenditure - The company aims to achieve annual interest savings of $10 million and expects to realize cost savings between $15 million and $21 million by year-end[3] - Capital expenditures for Q2 2025 were reported at $42 million, with maintenance capital expenditures projected to remain at the lower end of the previous guidance range of $145 million to $170 million per year[2] Risks and Challenges - Key risks include potential oversupply, fertilizer price declines, project delays, and acceptance of low-carbon products by customers[4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the market price of compound fertilizers, specifically potassium sulfate compound fertilizer, which is reported to be 3177.9 yuan per ton in late July 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.97% and a month-on-month increase of 0.9% [1] - The article provides a historical context, noting that the price in late July 2022 reached its peak at 4280 yuan per ton, indicating significant fluctuations in the market over the past five years [1]

Group 1 - The market price of urea (medium and small particles) in the agricultural production materials category is reported to be 1811.8 yuan/ton in late July 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 17.78% and a month-on-month decline of 0.58% [1] - The price of urea reached its peak in late July 2021 at 2822.5 yuan/ton, marking the highest level in the past five years for the same period [1]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - This week, the domestic urea spot market price showed a weak trend. The current daily production will fluctuate around 190,000 - 200,000 tons. In August, many previously shut - down plants are expected to resume production, and some new capacity plants are expected to be put into operation, so the supply pressure is expected to increase. On the demand side, the production start - up of autumn compound fertilizers continues to increase, but the downstream dealers' enthusiasm for picking up goods is insufficient, and the finished product inventory still faces great pressure. In the short term, the high inventory of autumn fertilizers suppresses the production enthusiasm of enterprises, and the support for the procurement demand of urea raw materials is weak. The futures price may continue to fluctuate weakly, and the market should pay attention to the support level performance around 1,680 - 1,700 yuan/ton on the disk [4]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 01 Week - ly Viewpoint Summary - **Supply**: In August, many plants are expected to resume production, and the supply is expected to increase [4]. - **Demand**: The start - up of autumn fertilizers has increased, but the finished product inventory pressure is still large [4]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of upstream urea enterprises decreased slightly on a week - on - week basis [4]. - **Cost and Profit**: The upward trend of coal prices has slowed down, and the urea profit decreased slightly on a week - on - week basis [4]. - **Basis and Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread fluctuated strongly, and the change in the 09 basis was limited [4]. - **Overall Logic**: The domestic urea spot market price was weak this week. Supply pressure is expected to increase, while demand is constrained by high inventory. The futures price may continue to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to the support level around 1,680 - 1,700 yuan/ton [4]. 02 Variety Details Decomposition - **2.1 This week, the domestic urea market price changed from strong to weak**: There are price trend charts of urea in Shandong, Shanxi, Henan, Hebei, Anhui, and Northeast China from 2021 - 2025 [6][7][8]. - **2.2 On August 4, the lowest CFR price of the Indian tender on the east coast was $532/ton**: There are charts showing international urea prices, price differences between FOB China and other regions, and export price differences from 2019 - 2025 [10][11][12]. - **2.3 Supply - In August, many plants are expected to resume production, and the supply is expected to increase**: The weekly urea production was 1.3548 million tons (+0.01%), including 1.0451 million tons of coal - based urea production (-1.62%) and 309,700 tons of gas - based urea production (+5.92%), with an average daily production of 194,000 tons. There are also plans for plant overhauls and historical data on overhaul losses [16][20][23]. - **2.4 Inventory - The inventory of upstream urea enterprises decreased slightly on a week - on - week basis**: The urea enterprise inventory was 887,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 29,700 tons. The port inventory was 483,000 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 10,000 tons), and some goods were shipped out of the port. The mainstream advance receipt days of urea enterprises were 6.53 days (+6.7% week - on - week), and the number of days of orders to be delivered by enterprises increased slightly [27][31]. - **2.5 Demand - The start - up of autumn fertilizers has increased, but the finished product inventory pressure is still large**: The operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises was 41.50% (+2.82%), and the finished product inventory was 800,400 tons (a week - on - week increase of 23,200 tons). The operating rate of melamine was 63.50% (-1.70%), with a slight decline [33][34]. - **2.6 Raw Material - The upward trend of coal prices has slowed down**: There are price trend charts of various types of coal such as Yulin thermal coal, Yangquan bituminous coal fines, etc. from 2021 - 2025 [36][37]. - **2.7 Profit - The urea profit decreased slightly on a week - on - week basis**: There are charts showing the production gross profit of urea fixed - bed devices from 2021 - 2025 [42][43]. - **2.8 Spread Analysis - The 9 - 1 spread fluctuated strongly, and the change in the 09 basis was limited**: There are charts showing the 9 - 1 spread and 09 basis from 2021 - 2025 [45][46][47]. - **2.10 Urea - related Product Spreads**: There are charts showing the price differences between liquid ammonia and urea, urea and ammonium chloride, etc. from 2021 - 2025 [53][52].

Core Viewpoint - New Yangfeng reported a year-on-year revenue growth of 11.63% and a net profit growth of 28.98% for the first half of the year, but showed a slight decline in revenue and a slowdown in profit growth in the second quarter compared to the first quarter [1][4]. Company Performance - New Yangfeng achieved a revenue of 93.98 billion yuan and a net profit of 9.51 billion yuan in the first half of the year, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 11.63% and 28.98% [4]. - In the first quarter, the company reported revenues of 46.68 billion yuan and a net profit of 5.15 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 39.98% and 49.61% [4]. - In the second quarter, revenues and net profits were 47.30 billion yuan and 4.36 billion yuan, respectively, indicating a decline in revenue growth and a slowdown in profit growth [4]. Product Performance - Sales revenue for phosphate fertilizers and new compound fertilizers increased by 39.34% and 26.83%, respectively, with gross margins improving by 4.27 and 2.58 percentage points [5]. - Conventional compound fertilizers saw a sales revenue decline of 6.66%, but gross margins increased by 0.14 percentage points [5]. Industry Trends - The overall performance of listed fertilizer companies is strong, but there is performance differentiation due to varying self-supply capabilities of raw materials [3]. - Analysts predict that the gross margins in the raw material market will fluctuate within a narrow range, and the gross margins for compound fertilizers may struggle to improve [6][7].

Group 1 - The company Yuntianhua (SH 600096) held its first board meeting of the tenth session on August 11, 2025, to discuss the election of the chairman of the audit committee [1] - For the year 2024, Yuntianhua's revenue composition is as follows: fertilizers account for 43.87%, trade for 41.57%, phosphate chemicals for 4.5%, others for 3.98%, and engineering materials for 2.36% [1] - As of the report date, Yuntianhua's market capitalization is 45.4 billion yuan [1]

Group 1 - In July, urea prices experienced a spike followed by a decline due to macroeconomic factors, with expectations of maintaining volatility in August as fundamentals become crucial [1] - High supply remains the primary pressure on urea prices, with daily production exceeding 190,000 tons, marking a historical high compared to previous years [4] - As of August 7, urea enterprise inventory reached 783,000 tons, an increase of 26,000 tons from the previous week, indicating sustained high supply levels [4] Group 2 - Demand for compound fertilizers is expected to improve in August, becoming the main driver of demand as production ramps up for the autumn season, with compound fertilizer operating rates rising to approximately 34%, a 14 percentage point increase from previous lows [5] - Recent adjustments in export policies have allowed for partial exports of urea to India, with price floors set at $470/ton for small granules and $490/ton for large granules, potentially providing support to the market [6] - The raw material side remains relatively strong, with coal prices increasing from around 620 yuan/ton to 675 yuan/ton, a rise of 8.87%, which may lead to increased production costs for urea [7] - Overall, despite high supply acting as a key suppressive factor, support from raw materials, domestic demand, and exports may lead to a "top-down, bottom-up" volatile market for urea in August [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on the urea industry is "oscillating", indicating that the short - term, medium - term, and long - term amplitudes are expected to be between - 5% and 5% [4][84] 2. Core View of the Report - The urea market is influenced by a mix of long and short factors. Macro - level factors, cost, and export prospects are positive, while domestic demand is negative. Therefore, the market is expected to oscillate [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Urea production was 1.3285 million tons, a decrease of 26,300 tons (1.94% week - on - week). The weekly average daily production was 189,800 tons, a decrease of 3700 tons. The capacity utilization rate was 81.98%, a decrease of 1.62% week - on - week. Some provinces saw production and capacity utilization changes. Overall, the supply factor is neutral [4] - **Demand**: The urea demand of sample compound fertilizer production enterprises in Shandong Linyi was 930 tons, a decrease of 200 tons (17.70% week - on - week). The pre - received order days of Chinese urea enterprises were 6.53 days, an increase of 0.41 days (6.70% week - on - week). The demand factor is bearish [4] - **Inventory**: The port sample inventory was 483,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons (2.03% week - on - week). The total enterprise inventory was 887,600 tons, a decrease of 29,700 tons (3.24% week - on - week). The inventory factor is neutral [4] - **Basis/Spread**: The UR spread had a narrow - range oscillation this week, and the factor is neutral [4] - **Profit**: The theoretical profit of urea sample enterprises had a narrow - range fluctuation. The theoretical profit of coal - fired fixed - bed process was - 167 yuan/ton (unchanged from last week), that of the new coal - water slurry process was 282 yuan/ton (a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from last week), and that of the gas - fired process was - 185 yuan/ton (unchanged from last week). The profit factor is bullish [4] - **Valuation**: The full cost of the fixed - bed process is about 1600 - 1700 yuan/ton, and that of the new coal gasification process is around 1400 - 1500 yuan/ton. The valuation factor is neutral [4] - **Macro and Policy**: There is an expectation of anti - involution policy, and the cost - side support is relatively strong. The macro and policy factor is bullish [4] - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, it is recommended to wait and see; for arbitrage, also wait and see [4] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - The domestic urea market first rose and then declined this week. The mainstream ex - factory price of small and medium - sized particles in Shandong dropped to 1740 - 1780 yuan/ton, with the average price decreasing by 5 yuan/ton week - on - week. After the export policy was announced, the market trading sentiment cooled down, and the short - term market may decline slightly again [6] 3.3 Urea Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Supply Data**: The report presents data on daily urea production, weekly production of large and small particles, production from coal and natural gas sources, and the capacity utilization rate over multiple years [28][30] - **Downstream Agricultural Demand**: Data on corn, wheat, and rice prices, as well as pre - received order days, compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate, and compound fertilizer prices are provided [45][48] - **Downstream Industrial Demand**: Information about the capacity utilization rate and production of formaldehyde, production of melamine, capacity utilization rate of melamine, national building materials and home furnishing index, and vehicle urea price is presented [54][58] - **Inventory and Export Situation**: Data on factory inventory, port inventory, Guangxi inventory, downstream enterprise inventory, compound fertilizer inventory, and export volume are shown [65][71] - **Cost and Profit**: The report provides data on fixed - bed cost, coal - water slurry cost, natural gas - fired cost, and their corresponding profits over multiple years [77]