Group 1 - The core logic of technology investment is based on "first principles," emphasizing that the performance of AI systems is determined by the shortest supply chain segments rather than the most powerful components [2] - The investment strategy focuses on identifying bottleneck segments in the supply chain, particularly in storage, as demand for storage is expected to grow significantly due to the increasing size of AI models and their requirements [4][12] - The investment approach is characterized by a shift from macro capacity considerations to micro-level KPIs and contract details, highlighting the importance of operational efficiency and management practices in the supply chain [5][6] Group 2 - The storage sector is identified as a critical bottleneck in the AI supply chain, with demand growth outpacing that of GPUs, driven by the evolution of multi-modal models and increased data throughput [8][11] - The supply constraints in the storage market are attributed to high capital expenditure requirements and technological barriers, making it difficult for new capacity to meet the surging demand [14][16] - The expected structural changes in the storage market indicate that by 2026, over half of storage procurement will come from AI data centers, with a significant shift towards customized and long-term contracts [15][16] Group 3 - The investment philosophy emphasizes the importance of understanding industry dynamics and avoiding speculative behaviors based on price movements, advocating for a focus on fundamental industry truths [7][12] - The narrative economy is highlighted as a significant factor influencing asset pricing, where trends and narratives can drive valuations faster than actual earnings growth [27][28] - The competitive landscape in the AI sector is evolving, with companies like Google and Nvidia driving demand for optical devices and storage, indicating a shift in value distribution within the supply chain [23][29]

2026年2月3日早盘，CPO等算力硬件股继续走强，罗博特科、天孚通信盘中涨超10%，股价均创历史新 高，太辰光、炬光科技、光库科技、天通股份等跟涨。 近期，光模块板块表现强劲，中际旭创与新易盛相继发布超预期业绩预告，印证全球算力基础设施建设 持续高景气。中际旭创预计2025年净利润98–118亿元，同比增长89.5%–128.2%，剔除汇兑损失及股权 激励等非经营性影响后实际经营更为扎实；新易盛预计2025年净利润94–99亿元，同比大增231.2%– 248.9%，高速率光模块需求放量成为核心驱动力。与此同时，Meta与康宁签署60亿美元长期光纤电缆 供货协议，订单规模远超康宁该业务历史营收水平，凸显北美数据中心对光通信底层硬件的刚性扩产需 求。 消息面方面，2026年起，部分电信服务增值税税率由6%上调至9%，涵盖手机流量、短信彩信及宽带接 入等基础通信服务。此次税制调整将加速运营商从传统通信服务商向"通信+算力+智能"综合信息服务 商转型，推动其优化资源配置、强化成本管控，并加快全栈创新节奏。中国移动首次提出打造通信、算 力、智能服务三大增长曲线；中国电信全面深化AI+行动；中国联通聚焦连接、算力、服 ...

Market Performance - The A-share market showed weakness today, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 2.5% [1][5] - Major indices experienced declines, including the CSI 300 down 2.1%, the STAR 50 down 3.9%, and the ChiNext Index down 2.5% [1][5] - The trading volume today was 2.6 trillion yuan, a decrease of approximately 0.26 trillion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1][5] External Factors - The adjustment in the A-share market is primarily attributed to increased external uncertainties, including the nomination of Kevin Walsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman, which has affected expectations for U.S. monetary policy [2][6] - Global commodity prices have sharply declined, impacting market sentiment and risk appetite, with significant drops in gold and other commodities [2][6] Investment Strategy - The current market volatility presents opportunities for bottom-fishing, as the underlying positive factors such as ample liquidity and improving performance remain unchanged [3][7] - The market is expected to continue supporting Chinese assets in 2026, driven by the restructuring of international order and domestic industrial innovation trends [3][7] Sector Focus - Suggested areas for investment include: 1. Growth sectors such as AI technology, cloud computing, and innovative pharmaceuticals, which are entering a growth cycle [4][8] 2. Export-oriented sectors, particularly in home appliances, engineering machinery, and gaming, which are seen as stable growth opportunities [4][8] 3. Cyclical sectors like chemicals and renewable energy, which may benefit from improving supply-demand dynamics [4][8] 4. High-dividend stocks, which are attractive for long-term investors seeking stable cash flow [4][8]

2月3日早盘，CPO光模块大反攻，致尚科技20CM涨停，天孚通信猛涨超11%再创历史新高，长芯博 创、光库科技、太辰光等多股涨超8%，中际旭创、新易盛涨超3%。创业板人工智能ETF（159363）场 内反包大涨4%，成交额环比放量明显，近两日吸金1.5亿元！ | 分时 多日 1分 5分 15分 30分 · | | | | | | | F9 盘前盘后 图加 九的 画班 工具 (2 > | | | 创业板人工智能ETF华宝 | 159363 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1,152 | | | | 159363(创业板人工智能ETF和空室) 09:41 价 1.150 混映 0.043(3.88%) 均价 1.144 版. | | | | D 4.0735 | 1.150 | | +0.043 +3.88% | | | | | | | | | | | | SZSE CNY 9:41:18 交易中 | 通用/ # + | | | | | | | | | | 2.71% | 净值击势 | | ...

建议逢低布局。本次波动与美联储主席提名引发的美宽松预期变化有关，但更主要的可能是此前大宗商 品价格过快上行，交易拥挤度较高，一旦预期变化将引发头寸集中抛售。并且该行认为凯文·沃什的决 策可能受到较多制约，美联储难以像市场担忧彻底转为鹰派，市场短期可能已经提前计入较多悲观预 期。A股当前资金面充裕、业绩改善、产业趋势催化等积极因素并未发生改变，该行认为短期波动已开 始提供逢低布局机会。中期而言，该行在此前研报中指出，国际秩序重构与我国产业创新趋势共振是推 动本轮市场上涨、中国资产重估的核心驱动力；全球货币秩序重构带来的格局转换和资金流动的力量， 或远大于一时、一国和一市场的基本面力量。该行认为，这两大条件未发生改变，2026年将继续支持中 国资产表现。 A股今日表现偏弱，上证指数下跌2.5%。2026年初A股市场在乐观预期、产业事件性催化、流动性相对 充裕等因素影响下延续上行趋势，但换手率过高、情绪偏热后，市场自1月13日震荡调整。今日A股市 场主要指数普跌，上证指数跌2.5%，沪深300跌2.1%，偏成长风格的科创50和创业板指分别跌3.9%、 2.5%，中证红利跌3.1%。成交层面，今日成交额2.6万亿元， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the fiber optic sector, indicating a favorable outlook for companies involved in this industry [4]. Core Insights - The fiber optic industry is entering a demand upcycle driven by AI data center construction, leading to a supply-demand imbalance and increased prices for fiber optic products [10][14]. - Major companies like Corning have secured significant contracts, such as a $6 billion order from Meta for fiber optic cables, highlighting the growing demand in the sector [29]. - The report emphasizes the importance of high-speed networking equipment, particularly in AI applications, which require advanced fiber optic solutions to meet performance standards [3][38]. Summary by Sections 1. Fiber Optic Demand Surge - The fiber optic and cable industry is experiencing a new development phase with tight market supply and increased demand due to AI data center construction [14]. - The supply side has faced years of capacity clearing, while the demand side is driven by the construction of AI data centers, leading to a significant increase in fiber optic demand [10][15]. 2. Market Review - The communication sector has shown strong performance, with the fiber optic segment outperforming other areas [18][20]. - The fiber optic index has seen a notable increase, reflecting the sector's robust growth compared to broader market indices [20]. 3. Industry News - Meta's capital expenditure for 2026 is projected at $135 billion, indicating strong investment in technology and infrastructure [27]. - Corning reported record sales and earnings for 2025, with expectations for continued growth in 2026 [28]. 4. Company News - Companies like Hengtong Optic-Electric and Yangtze Optical Fibre have reported significant profit increases, with Hengtong's net profit expected to grow by 77.39% to 112.87% in 2025 [30][31]. - Other firms, such as Shijia Photon, anticipate substantial profit growth, indicating a positive trend across the industry [32]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies within the fiber optic supply chain, such as Yangtze Optical Fibre and Hengtong Optic-Electric, as well as those in the liquid cooling sector [38]. - The ongoing demand from AI applications is expected to drive further price increases in fiber optics, making it a key area for investment [38].

证 券 研 究 报 告 中际旭创（300308）2025 年业绩预告点评 强推（维持） 业绩符合预期，1.6T 有望快速放量 当前价：649.00 元 [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 23,862 | 38,337 | 90,981 | 145,304 | | 同比增速(%) | 122.6% | 60.7% | 137.3% | 59.7% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 5,171 | 10,889 | 28,081 | 47,186 | | 同比增速(%) | 137.9% | 110.6% | 157.9% | 68.0% | | 每股盈利(元) | 4.65 | 9.80 | 25.27 | 42.47 | | 市盈率(倍) | 139 | 66 | 26 | 15 | | 市净率(倍) | 37.7 | 24.6 | 12.8 | 7.2 | 资料来源：公司公告，华创证券预测 注：股价为 2026 年 1 月 ...

Q4 毛利率预计持续提升，未来1.6T/硅光产品有望进一步提高盈利能力： 事件： 公司2025年业绩预告，2025年公司预计实现归母净利润98-118亿元，同比增长90%-128%；扣非归母净 利润97-117亿元，同比增长91%-131%。其中Q4预计归母净利润27-47亿元，同比增长90%-231%。业绩 符合预期。 算力需求带动业绩增长，Q4 业绩受子公司亏损影响：报告期内受益于终端客户对算力基础设施的强劲 投入，公司产品出货较快增长，其中高速光模块占比持续提高，且随着产品方案不断优化、运营效率继 续提升，公司营业收入与净利润均较去年同期实现较大增长，我们预计后续伴随1.6T 加速出货以及公 司硅光方案缓解光芯片等物料紧缺影响，2026 年业绩有望持续高增长。报告期内计提存货减值、应收 账款信用减值合计1.13亿元，股票激励等项目合计减少净利润2.23 亿元，汇兑损失2.7 亿元；另一方面 投资收益及公允价值变动收益合计增加净利润2.96 亿元。整体看四季度净利率预计环比小幅下滑，主要 受控股子公司君歌电子四季度亏损7000-8000 万影响，此外汇兑损失、研发费用计提等因素同样影响利 润表现。 公司电 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced fluctuations, particularly in the entrepreneurial board's AI sector, which saw a significant drop after an initial rise, indicating volatility in the market [1][8]. Market Analysis - The entrepreneurial board AI ETF (159363) saw a notable decline of 4.07% at the close, with a trading volume of 9.59 billion yuan, but there was a net subscription of 130 million shares, suggesting investor confidence in the underlying fundamentals despite market volatility [1][10]. - The performance of leading companies in the optical module sector, such as Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, and Tianfu Communication, is expected to be strong due to increased global investment in computing infrastructure and high demand for optical modules and devices [3][10]. Company Performance Forecasts - Zhongji Xuchuang is projected to achieve a net profit of 9.8 billion to 11.8 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 5% to 128.2% [5][14]. - Xinyi Sheng anticipates a net profit of 9.4 billion to 9.9 billion yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 2% to 248.9% [5][14]. - Tianfu Communication expects a net profit of 8.1 billion to 21.5 billion yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 40% to 60% [5][14]. Investment Strategy - The fund manager of the entrepreneurial board AI ETF emphasizes focusing on clear industry trends and assets with synchronized performance and valuation growth, particularly in the optical module sector, which is seen as a leading trend in the current market [3][11]. - The ETF's strategy includes a significant allocation towards computing (approximately 60%) and AI applications (approximately 40%), indicating a balanced approach to capitalize on both sectors [4][11].

记者｜雷晨 编辑｜巫燕玲 近期，多家光模块龙头企业发布了2025年的业绩预告。数据显示，相关公司的净利润出现了大幅增长。其中，中际旭创和新易盛的表现尤为突出。 这背后，是800G等高速光模块订单的持续释放。同时，下一代1.6T技术也已开始商用部署，推动行业技术迭代不断加快。 行业分析认为，光模块行业的高景气与全球AI发展的宏大叙事紧密相连。海内外云厂商的高额资本开支、中国市场的需求回归、技术升级带来的"量价齐 升"，以及AI需求从训练侧向推理侧的延伸，共同构成了行业持续增长的坚实基础。 高增下的分化 光模块是数据传输的关键部件，它像连接数据中心各个服务器的"高速公路"。随着AI大模型训练、自动驾驶、云计算等应用对算力需求的爆炸式增长，光模 块企业成了直接受益者。 中际旭创的业绩预告显示，公司2025年预计实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润98亿元至118亿元，增长率高达89.50%至128.17%。扣除股权激励费用前，公 司光模块业务实现合并净利润约108亿元至131亿元，同比增长90.81%至131.44%。2月2日，中际旭创收盘报591元/股，市值6567亿。 新易盛的表现则更胜一筹。其预计2025年实现归属 ...