Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The short - term trading logic of the soybean market comes from weather themes and the prospects of Sino - US trade relations, with a continued staged rebound trend. The internal and external soybean futures prices are still in an upward - prone and downward - resistant pattern [5]. - Although there is disappointment about the lack of agricultural content in the details of the Sino - US trade agreement, soybean oil prices are supported by the latest policy expectations of the US Department of Energy. The short - term futures prices of US soybean oil stop falling and rebound, which drives up domestic soybean oil prices [7]. - The Malaysian palm oil inventory has increased for three consecutive months, putting pressure on the palm oil market. The domestic palm oil lacks its own driving force and fluctuates following the international oil market in the short term, with limited rebound space [8]. 3. Summary by Variety 3.1. Soybean Meal (M) - **View**: The intraday view is strongly volatile, and the medium - term view is sideways. The reference view is strongly volatile [5]. - **Core Logic**: Sino - US principles have reached an agreement framework, with positive expectations for US soybean exports. The US soybean futures prices continue to show weather - market volatility characteristics [5]. 3.2. Soybean Oil (Y) - **View**: The intraday view is strongly volatile, and the medium - term view is sideways. The reference view is strongly volatile [6][7]. - **Core Logic**: Driven by the latest policy expectations of the US Department of Energy, the futures prices of US soybean oil stop falling and rebound, bringing a linkage boost to domestic soybean oil prices [7]. 3.3. Palm Oil (P) - **View**: The intraday view is strongly volatile, and the medium - term view is sideways. The reference view is strongly volatile [6][8]. - **Core Logic**: The Malaysian palm oil inventory has increased for three consecutive months, and the market is under pressure. The domestic palm oil lacks its own driving force and fluctuates following the international oil market in the short term [8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term trading logic of the bean market still comes from weather themes, with an easy - to - rise and hard - to - fall trend. However, the intraday performance of varieties such as soybean meal, palm oil, and soybean oil is expected to be weakly volatile [5][6][7]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **Viewpoints**: Short - term:震荡; Medium - term:震荡; Intraday:震荡偏弱; Reference view:震荡偏弱 [5][6] - **Core Logic**: The optimistic expectation of Sino - US trade continues to ferment, and the US soybean shows weather - market fluctuations. The domestic soybean market is continuously boosted by the US soybean futures price. As China's purchases return to the US market, the US soybean futures price is boosted. The short - term trading logic of the bean market comes from weather themes, and the structure between contracts has subtle changes, with an easy - to - rise and hard - to - fall trend. Intraday, it follows the short - term fluctuations of the US soybean futures price and mainly runs in a weakly volatile manner. Other factors include import arrival rhythm, customs clearance inspection, oil refinery start - up rhythm, and stocking demand [5][6]. Palm Oil (P) - **Viewpoints**: Short - term:震荡; Medium - term:震荡; Intraday:震荡偏弱; Reference view:震荡偏弱 [6][7] - **Core Logic**: Yesterday's Malaysian palm report showed that Malaysian palm oil inventory has increased for 3 consecutive months. Although the increase was less than market expectations, it still put pressure on the palm oil market. Currently, the game between Malaysian palm oil production increase and strong exports continues. Later, attention still needs to be paid to the suppression of the Malaysian palm oil futures price by inventory pressure. The domestic palm oil lacks its own driving force, and its short - term trend follows the international oil market and runs in a weakly volatile manner. Other factors include Malaysian palm production and exports, Indonesian exports, main - producing countries' tariff policies, domestic arrivals, inventory, and substitution demand [6][7]. Soybean Oil - **Viewpoints**: Short - term:震荡; Medium - term:震荡; Intraday:震荡偏弱; Reference view:震荡偏弱 [6] - **Core Logic**: Influencing factors include US tariff policies, US soybean oil inventory, biodiesel demand, domestic raw material supply rhythm, and oil refinery inventory [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report provides short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on soybean meal, soybean oil, and palm oil futures, along with their core driving logics [5][6][7] 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **Viewpoints**: Short - term:震荡; Medium - term:震荡; Intraday:震荡偏弱; Reference view:震荡偏弱 [5][6] - **Core Logic**: Optimistic expectations of Sino - US trade continue to ferment, enhancing the expectation of good US soybean exports. Seasonally, US soybean futures are in a sensitive period for weather themes and tend to rise. The trading logic of the soybean market comes from the increase in import costs, but the rebound will face domestic fundamental suppression. It fluctuates with US soybean futures intraday and mainly moves in a weakly oscillating manner [5] Palm Oil (P) - **Viewpoints**: Short - term:震荡; Medium - term:震荡; Intraday:震荡偏强; Reference view:震荡偏强 [6][7] - **Core Logic**: Attention is paid to the impact of the Malaysian Palm Oil Board report on the market. Before the report, the market expects the Malaysian palm oil inventory to increase for three consecutive months, pressuring the rebound of palm oil futures. The export competition between Indonesia and Malaysia continues. In China, as palm oil purchases increase, domestic supply is supplemented, and the palm oil inventory rises from a low level. The entire oil and fat sector stops falling and rebounds, and palm oil maintains a weakly bullish oscillating trend in the short term [7] Soybean Oil (Not elaborated in detail in the given text, only listed in the table) - **Viewpoints**: Short - term:震荡; Medium - term:震荡; Intraday:震荡偏强; Reference view:震荡偏强 [6] - **Core Logic**: Related to US tariff policies, US soybean oil inventory, biodiesel demand, domestic raw material supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory [6]

Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - The short - term price of soybean meal futures will follow the price of US soybean futures and continue the phased rebound trend, and the overall market is expected to be volatile and strong. The price of palm oil futures will be volatile and strong as well [6][8]. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **Time - period Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating and strong; Reference view: oscillating and strong [6][7] - **Core Logic**: Optimistic signals in Sino - US trade relations enhance the expectation of good US soybean exports. Entering the weather - sensitive period, potential extreme weather risks in US soybean - producing areas this summer make US soybean prices easy to rise and hard to fall. The trading logic of the domestic soybean meal market mainly depends on import costs, so short - term soybean meal futures prices will follow the US soybean futures prices [6]. Palm Oil (P) - **Time - period Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating and strong; Reference view: oscillating and strong [7][8] - **Core Logic**: The Malaysian Palm Oil Board will release monthly data on June 10. Expected moderate growth in production will push up inventory. There is export competition between Indonesia and Malaysia. In China, increased palm oil purchases will supplement supply and raise inventory. So the short - term palm oil futures prices will be volatile and strong [8]. Other Information - For soybean meal 2509, factors affecting the market include import arrival rhythm, customs clearance inspection, oil refinery operation rhythm, and stocking demand [7]. - For soybean oil 2509, influencing factors are US tariff policy, US soybean oil inventory, biodiesel demand, domestic raw material supply rhythm, and oil refinery inventory [7]. - For palm 2509, factors are Malaysian palm production and exports, Indonesian exports, main - producing countries' tariff policies, domestic arrival and inventory, and substitution demand [7].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall domestic bean futures prices follow the fluctuations of the external market. The soybean futures prices in the US are still affected by weather themes and trade risks, maintaining a trend of being more likely to rise than fall. The main trading logic in the short - term is the weather theme, and the linkage between the domestic and foreign markets has increased. The short - term trend is mainly volatile and strong [6]. - The export of Malaysian palm oil remains strong, and the supply - demand environment has significantly improved, which supports the rebound of Malaysian palm oil and the domestic palm oil futures prices. If the trading logic of oils returns to fundamentals, palm oil is expected to become the leading variety [8]. Group 3: Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - Short - term: Oscillatory; Medium - term: Oscillatory; Intraday: Oscillatory and strong; Reference view: Oscillatory and strong. Core logic includes import arrival rhythm, customs clearance inspection, oil refinery operation rhythm, and stocking demand. With the continuous release of optimistic signals in Sino - US trade relations, the expectation of good US soybean exports is increasing. The short - term trend is mainly volatile and strong [6][7]. Palm Oil (P) - Short - term: Oscillatory; Medium - term: Oscillatory; Intraday: Oscillatory and strong; Reference view: Oscillatory and strong. Core logic involves Malaysian palm oil production and exports, Indonesian exports, tariff policies of major producing countries, domestic arrivals and inventories, and substitution demand. The strong export of Malaysian palm oil and improved supply - demand environment support the domestic palm oil futures prices [7][8]. Soybean Oil - Short - term: Oscillatory; Medium - term: Oscillatory; Intraday: Oscillatory and strong; Reference view: Oscillatory and strong. Core logic includes US tariff policies, US soybean oil inventory, biodiesel demand, domestic raw material supply rhythm, and oil refinery inventory [7].

Report Summary Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry was provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The short - term and medium - term trends of both Shanghai rubber futures (RU 2509) and synthetic rubber futures (BR 2508) are expected to be volatile, while the intraday trends are expected to be volatile and on the stronger side [1][5][7]. - Shanghai rubber futures (RU 2509) and synthetic rubber futures are expected to maintain a stable or slightly stronger volatile trend on Thursday [5][7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Viewpoints** - Short - term: Volatile [1] - Medium - term: Volatile [1] - Intraday: Volatile and on the stronger side [1] - Overall reference: On the stronger side [1] - **Core Logic** - As macro factors are digested, the trading logic in the rubber market has shifted to the supply - demand fundamentals. With the full - scale tapping season in domestic and foreign natural rubber producing areas, raw material output is increasing steadily, and new rubber supply is rising. The zero - tariff policy for imported natural rubber between China and Thailand has lowered the import cost and pushed down the price center. Meanwhile, the external demand of the downstream tire industry has shrunk, weakening the consumption factor. After a sharp decline in rubber prices, the bearish sentiment has been digested. On Wednesday night, the Shanghai rubber futures contract 2509 showed a stable volatile trend, closing slightly up 0.45% at 13,530 yuan/ton [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Viewpoints** - Short - term: Volatile [1] - Medium - term: Volatile [1] - Intraday: Volatile and on the stronger side [1] - Overall reference: On the stronger side [1] - **Core Logic** - As macro factors are digested, the trading logic in the synthetic rubber market has shifted to the supply - demand fundamentals. The approaching US debt crisis in June may trigger a new round of macro negative impacts. OPEC+ oil - producing countries are accelerating the production increase rhythm, and the crude oil demand expectation is weak. With the overnight crude oil futures price fluctuating weakly, the domestic synthetic rubber futures contract 2508 closed slightly up 0.32% at 10,860 yuan/ton on Wednesday night. It is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend on Thursday [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - The short - term trend of soybean meal, palm oil, and soybean oil futures is oscillating strongly, while the medium - term trend is oscillating. The market sentiment of soybean meal is boosted by the alleviation of trade concerns and the fermentation of weather topics, and the domestic supply improvement expectation is continuous. The palm oil market is in a game between production growth and export sustainability, and its fundamentals are slightly better than soybean oil [5][7]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **Time - frame Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating strongly; Reference view: oscillating strongly [5][6]. - **Core Logic**: With the alleviation of trade concerns and the fermentation of weather topics, the US soybean futures price continues to rebound, supporting domestic soybean futures prices. The domestic supply improvement expectation is continuous, and the oil refinery inventory accumulation expectation is increasing. Attention should be paid to the impact of the oil refinery's picking - up rhythm and downstream replenishment rhythm on prices. The short - term soybean meal futures price enters a stage of rebound, and the internal - external linkage is enhanced [5]. Palm Oil (P) - **Time - frame Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating strongly; Reference view: oscillating strongly [7]. - **Core Logic**: As the supply of Southeast Asian palm oil increases, the competitiveness of palm oil exports affects the inventory pressure of Southeast Asian palm oil. Due to Indonesia's increase in palm oil export taxes and Malaysia's reduction of the export tax on crude palm oil in June, Indonesian palm oil has lost its price competitiveness compared to Malaysia. The market is in a game between production growth and the sustainability of strong exports. Currently, the fundamentals of palm oil are slightly better than soybean oil. Affected by short - term funds, the palm oil futures price fluctuates more, but has not broken through the oscillation range [7]. Soybean Oil - **Time - frame Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating strongly; Reference view: oscillating strongly [6]. - **Core Logic**: Influenced by US tariff policies, US soybean oil inventory, biodiesel demand, domestic raw material supply rhythm, and oil refinery inventory [6].

Report Overview - The report is the Baocheng Futures' morning report on beans and oils for May 27, 2025, covering the price trends, driving logics, and investment outlooks of varieties such as soybean meal, palm oil, and soybean oil [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The short - term soybean futures prices will rebound following the external market, but the upside is restricted by the supply recovery expectation; the palm oil price is affected by the soybean oil price, and its supply - demand pattern has slightly improved, with the price still in a wide - range oscillation [5][7] Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **Time - frame Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating strongly; Reference view: oscillating strongly [5][6] - **Core Logic**: The weather theme continues to ferment, boosting market sentiment. The US soybean futures price continues to rebound, supporting domestic soybean futures prices. The domestic supply improvement expectation persists, and the oil mill inventory accumulation expectation is increasing. The external soybean futures price is in a rebound, and the impact of market procurement rhythm on price should be noted [5] Palm Oil (P) - **Time - frame Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating strongly; Reference view: oscillating strongly [6][7] - **Core Logic**: The palm oil futures price was dragged down by the neighboring soybean oil futures price yesterday. The palm oil supply - demand pattern has slightly improved, and the rapeseed oil de - stocking expectation continues. Palm oil and rapeseed oil perform better than soybean oil in the oil market. The impact of short - term capital inflows and outflows on price should be noted, and the palm oil futures price has not broken through the wide - range oscillation recently [7] Soybean Oil - **Time - frame Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating strongly; Reference view: oscillating strongly [6] - **Core Logic**: Influenced by US tariff policies, US soybean oil inventory, biodiesel demand, domestic raw material supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - The short - term performance of domestic and foreign bean futures prices is still in a volatile range, and the palm oil price has limited rebound space and is expected to be volatile and strong [5][8]. 3. Summary by Variety 3.1 Bean Meal (M) - **View**: The intraday, short - term, and reference views are all volatile and strong, and the medium - term view is volatile [5][7]. - **Core Logic**: With the increase in imported soybeans, most oil mills' operating rates are gradually recovering. The提货量 of oil mills has rebounded rapidly and is higher than the same period in previous years. After terminal replenishment, the enthusiasm for further procurement is not high. The domestic market continues to trade on the "weak reality, strong expectation" logic. The weather during the US soybean sowing period, China's procurement rhythm, and the loading rhythm of South American soybeans continue to affect the performance of US soybean futures prices. Recently, the linkage between domestic and foreign bean futures prices has been repaired [5]. 3.2 Palm Oil (P) - **View**: The intraday, short - term, and reference views are all volatile and strong, and the medium - term view is volatile [7][8]. - **Core Logic**: The production and demand of palm oil in Southeast Asia are both increasing. Whether the export of Malaysian palm oil can remain strong determines whether the inventory of Malaysian palm oil will continue to accumulate. Indonesia's increase in the export tax on crude palm oil is beneficial to boosting the export of Malaysian palm oil and alleviating the inventory pressure. The increase in domestic palm oil purchases by importers helps to replenish the low domestic palm oil inventory. Although there is a certain recovery expectation for palm oil demand, the reaction in the spot market is limited, and the short - term rebound space of palm oil is limited [8]. 3.3 Soybean Oil (2509) - **View**: The intraday, short - term, and reference views are all volatile and strong, and the medium - term view is volatile [7]. - **Core Logic**: It is affected by US tariff policies, US soybean oil inventory, biodiesel demand, domestic raw material supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory [7].

宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 5 月 14 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 策略参考 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 2.跌幅大于 1%为偏弱，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为偏强。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏强 核心逻辑：随着美国农业部报告利多影响释放，美豆期价大涨，内外盘豆类价差持续修复。国内油厂开机 率逐渐恢复，短期现货供应恢复节奏偏慢，对现货行情仍然形成一定支撑，但供应宽松预期不断强化。近 月供应压力不断增加，令基差快速回落，未来几日期现价差仍将快速回归。国内受到供应恢复预期的压制， 短期豆粕期价维持震荡偏强运行。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） < END > 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前一日夜盘 ...