Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - The methanol 2509 contract is expected to run strongly, with short - term and medium - term trends being oscillatory, and an intraday trend being oscillatory and strong [1][5]. - Due to the weakening of geopolitical factors, the prices of domestic and international crude oil futures and international methanol prices have declined. After a sharp drop on Tuesday and an oscillatory stabilization on Wednesday, the domestic methanol futures maintained an oscillatory and strong trend on Thursday night, with the futures price rising slightly by 0.67% to 2418 yuan/ton. It is expected that the domestic methanol futures 2509 contract may maintain an oscillatory and strong trend on Friday [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Variety Morning Meeting Minutes - For methanol 2509, the short - term trend is oscillatory, the medium - term trend is oscillatory, the intraday trend is oscillatory and strong, and the reference view is a strong operation. The core logic is that there are differences between long and short positions, and methanol has oscillated and stabilized [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Commodity Futures Energy and Chemical Sector - The intraday view of methanol is oscillatory and strong, and the medium - term view is oscillatory. The reference view is a strong operation. The core logic is that the weakening of geopolitical factors has led to a decline in the prices of domestic and international crude oil futures and international methanol prices. After a sharp drop on Tuesday and an oscillatory stabilization on Wednesday, the domestic methanol futures maintained an oscillatory and strong trend on Thursday night, with the futures price rising slightly by 0.67% to 2418 yuan/ton. It is expected that the domestic methanol futures 2509 contract may maintain an oscillatory and strong trend on Friday [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View The report provides short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on several agricultural commodity futures, suggesting that the prices of soybean meal, palm oil, and soybean oil are likely to be oscillating strongly in the short - term and strong in the medium - term [5][6][7]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **View**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: strong; Intraday: oscillating strongly; Reference view: oscillating strongly [5][6] - **Core Logic**: US soybean产区 weather has improved, causing the US soybean futures price to show weather - driven fluctuations and decline. The market focus will shift to the July - August weather's impact on yield. The domestic soybean market follows the US soybean futures price, and after continuous price drops, it may stabilize [5]. Palm Oil (P) - **View**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: strong; Intraday: oscillating strongly; Reference view: oscillating strongly [6][7] - **Core Logic**: As the impact of international oil prices weakens, the palm oil market returns to its fundamentals. Malaysia's reduction of crude palm oil export tax and Brazil's increase in the mandatory biodiesel blending ratio boost demand. Active oil - meal arbitrage funds also support the price [7]. Soybean Oil (Y) - **View**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: strong; Intraday: oscillating strongly; Reference view: oscillating strongly [6] - **Core Logic**: Influenced by US biofuel policies, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil refinery inventory [6].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货橡胶早报-2025-06-26 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 多空分歧出现，沪胶震荡企稳 | | 合成胶 | 2508 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 多空分歧出现，合成胶震荡企稳 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 晨会纪要 --------------------------------------------------------------- ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no clear report industry investment rating provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall view for most of the agricultural commodity futures in the report is "oscillating weakly" in the short - term and "strong" in the medium - term, including soybean meal and palm oil [5][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Soybean Meal (M) - **Time - related Views**: The intraday view is oscillating weakly, the medium - term view is strong, and the reference view is oscillating weakly [5] - **Core Logic**: Geopolitical risks have cooled recently, and the weather in US soybean - producing areas has continuously improved. The price of US soybean futures shows obvious weather - driven fluctuations, with the price center moving down. The trading logic of the domestic soybean market remains unchanged, following the price fluctuations of US soybean futures. Short - term capital loosening intensifies the price fluctuations, causing the futures price to oscillate weakly [5] 3.2. Palm Oil (P) - **Time - related Views**: The intraday view is oscillating weakly, the medium - term view is strong, and the reference view is oscillating weakly [7] - **Core Logic**: The spill - over effect of the slowdown in the decline of international oil prices on the oil market has weakened. After the oil market returns to the fundamentals, the futures prices of the three major oils turn to oscillate weakly, and inventory pressure emerges. Domestic palm oil lacks its own driving force, follows the prices of other neighboring oils and international palm oil futures, and runs oscillating weakly in the short - term [7] 3.3. Other Related Futures Contracts - **Soybean Meal 2509**: The short - term view is oscillating, the medium - term view is strong, and the intraday view is oscillating weakly. The influencing factors include import arrival rhythm, customs clearance inspection, oil refinery operation rhythm, and stocking demand [6] - **Soybean Oil 2509**: The short - term view is oscillating, the medium - term view is strong, and the intraday view is oscillating weakly. The influencing factors include US biofuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil refinery inventory [6] - **Palm 2509**: The short - term view is oscillating, the medium - term view is strong, and the intraday view is oscillating weakly. The influencing factors include the biodiesel attribute, Malaysian palm oil production and exports, Indonesian exports, the tariff policies of major producing countries, domestic arrivals and inventory, and substitution demand [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall trend of the agricultural products futures market in the report shows that the short - term performance of soybean meal futures is stronger than that of oils and fats, and the short - term is in a volatile state. The oils and fats market is affected by multiple factors such as international oil prices and inventory, showing a relatively weak trend in the short - term [5][7]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **Viewpoints**: The intraday view is weakly volatile, the medium - term view is strong, and the reference view is weakly volatile [5]. - **Core Logic**: As the geopolitical risk in the Middle East cools down and the weather is favorable for crop growth, the decline in the US soybean oil futures price drags down the US soybean futures price. The domestic soybean market follows the fluctuation rhythm of the US soybean futures price. With stable market funds, the short - term soybean meal futures price is stronger than that of oils and fats and runs in a volatile manner [5]. Palm Oil (P) - **Viewpoints**: The intraday view is weakly volatile, the medium - term view is strong, and the reference view is weakly volatile [7]. - **Core Logic**: The oils and fats market as a whole follows the decline of international oil prices. After returning to the fundamentals, the inventory of the three major oils shows an obvious increasing trend, and the inventory pressure appears. Domestic palm oil lacks its own driving force and follows the price fluctuations of other oils and international palm oil futures, running weakly in the short - term [7]. Other Related Information - **Time Cycle Definition**: Short - term refers to within one week, and medium - term refers to two weeks to one month. For soybean meal 2509, soybean oil 2509, and palm 2509, the short - term and medium - term views are strong, while the intraday view is weakly volatile. Different varieties are affected by different factors such as import arrival rhythm, US biofuel policy, and biodiesel attributes [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report's Core View - Both Shanghai rubber and synthetic rubber are expected to run weakly in the short - term, mid - term, and intraday, with a weakening bullish atmosphere leading to an overall weakening trend [1][5][7] 3. Summary by Related Categories Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **View**: Short - term: volatile; Mid - term: volatile; Intraday: weakly volatile; Overall: weakly run [1][5] - **Core Logic**: As geopolitical factors weaken, the common bullish marginal effect of energy and chemical commodity futures decreases, and the negative factors of the weak supply - demand structure in the rubber market re - dominate. Supply is in the peak tapping season with strong incremental expectations and high monthly output pressure. Downstream demand is weak, tire production and sales growth has slowed, and terminal demand has entered the off - season. On Monday night, the 2509 contract of domestic Shanghai rubber futures showed a weakly volatile trend, with the futures price slightly down 0.36% to 13,835 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain a weakly volatile trend on Tuesday [5] Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **View**: Short - term: volatile; Mid - term: volatile; Intraday: weakly volatile; Overall: weakly run [1][7] - **Core Logic**: Due to the weakening of geopolitical factors, the prices of energy futures such as crude oil have fallen, dragging down the 2508 contract of synthetic rubber futures, which showed a weakly volatile trend on Monday night, with the futures price slightly down 0.22% to 11,440 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain a weakly volatile trend on Tuesday [7]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Report's Core View The report predicts that the domestic methanol futures 2509 contract will maintain a weak - oscillating trend. The weakening of geopolitical factors is the main reason for this view. After the US - Iran conflict shows signs of easing, the methanol futures 2509 contract closed slightly lower by 1.71% to 2469 yuan/ton on the night session of Monday last week, and it is expected to continue this trend on Tuesday [1][5]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Price Analysis - In the short - term (within a week), the methanol 2509 contract is expected to oscillate; in the medium - term (two weeks to one month), it will also oscillate; and on an intraday basis, it will oscillate weakly and run in a weak manner [1]. Driving Logic - Geopolitical factors have weakened. After Trump's comments and Iran's equivalent retaliatory actions without blocking the Strait of Hormuz, the methanol futures 2509 contract closed slightly lower on the night session of Monday last week, and is expected to maintain a weak - oscillating trend on Tuesday [5]. Market Definition - For varieties with night trading, the starting price is the night - session closing price, and for those without, it is the previous day's closing price. The ending price is the day - session closing price of the current day to calculate the price change [2]. - A decline of more than 1% is considered a fall, a decline of 0 - 1% is a weak oscillation, an increase of 0 - 1% is a strong oscillation, and an increase of more than 1% is a rise. The concepts of strong/weak oscillation only apply to intraday views [3][4].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The soybean meal market shows an intraday view of being weakly volatile and a medium - term view of being strongly - trending. The core logic is that favorable rainfall in US soybean - producing areas has improved the weather outlook, causing US soybean futures prices to fluctuate weakly. The domestic soybean market's trading logic remains unchanged, and the room for further decline is limited after giving back some weather - risk premiums following the US soybean futures prices [5]. - The palm oil market has an intraday view of being weakly volatile and a medium - term view of being strongly - trending. The core logic is that with the sharp drop in international oil prices, the energy spill - over support for the oil and fat market has weakened. The palm oil market is a short - term game between increasing production and strong demand, and strong export demand helps offset some inventory pressure. The domestic palm oil market lacks its own drivers and follows other oils and the international palm oil futures prices [6][8]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Meal (M) - **Time - frame Views**: Short - term (within a week) is strongly - trending, medium - term (two weeks to a month) is strongly - trending, and intraday is weakly volatile. The reference view is weakly volatile. - **Core Logic**: Import arrival rhythm, customs clearance inspection, oil refinery operation rhythm, and stocking demand [7]. Soybean Oil (2509) - **Time - frame Views**: Short - term is strongly - trending, medium - term is strongly - trending, and intraday is weakly volatile. The reference view is weakly volatile. - **Core Logic**: US biofuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil refinery inventory [7]. Palm Oil (2509) - **Time - frame Views**: Short - term is strongly - trending, medium - term is strongly - trending, and intraday is weakly volatile. The reference view is weakly volatile. - **Core Logic**: Biodiesel attributes, Malaysian palm oil production and exports, Indonesian exports, tariff policies of major producing countries, domestic arrivals and inventory, and substitution demand [7].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 晨会纪要 宝城期货甲醇早报-2025-06-23 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 甲醇 2509 | 上涨 | 震荡 | 上涨 | 强势运行 | 地缘因素增强，甲醇强势运行 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 甲醇（MA） 日内观点：上涨 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：强势运行 核心逻辑：上周末，美国对伊朗核设施展开轰炸，揭开美伊战争序幕。伊朗誓言袭击美国在中东的 军事基地，地缘风险再度增强，导致能化商品溢价提升。作为全球重要的甲醇生产与出口国，伊朗 是我国重要的甲醇进口来源国。目前 ...

策略参考 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 6 月 23 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为偏弱，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为偏强。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：偏强 参考观点：震荡偏弱 核心逻辑：美豆产区天气改善，美豆期价震荡偏弱运行。随着中美贸易关系持续向好，市场情绪得到修复， 美豆出口向好的预期不变。此外，美豆压榨需求受益于生物燃料政策预期的推动，存在增量预期。这些因 素均对美豆价格构成有力支撑，美豆期价仍将保持易涨难跌走势。目前豆粕交易逻辑并未改变，来自于原 料大豆进口成本攀升的预期，令豆粕期价跟随外盘美豆反弹节奏。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前一日夜盘收盘价为基准) 品种 ...