1. Report Information - Report Title: Zinc Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: September 23, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin, Yu Feifei [3][4] 2. Market Review - Futures Market: The Shanghai zinc futures market opened lower and rebounded, with the main contract switching to ZN2511, closing at 22,090 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan or 0.14%. The trading volume increased, and the open interest rose by 68,581 lots to 130,425 lots. LME zinc inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 46,825 tons, and the overseas spot premium widened. The domestic processing fee had limited upward momentum, and the SMM zinc concentrate domestic monthly TC was 3,850 yuan/metal ton, while the SMM imported zinc concentrate index rose by 2 US dollars/dry ton to 98.25 US dollars/dry ton. The by - product sulfuric acid price was stable with a slight decline. Due to more smelter overhauls in September and supply shortages in some secondary zinc enterprises, the monthly output was expected to decline by 1 - 20,000 tons to around 600,000 tons, and the supply remained generally loose. On the demand side, the operating rates of galvanizing and zinc oxide increased slightly, but overall consumption in the peak season was not ideal. The inventory was expected to continue to decline this week, and the zinc price would continue to fluctuate between 21,800 - 22,500 yuan [7]. 3. Industry News - On September 22, 2025, the mainstream transaction prices of 0 zinc were concentrated between 19,100 - 22,065 yuan/ton, and different brands had different price ranges and premium/discount situations in different trading periods and regions such as Shanghai, Ningbo, Tianjin, and Guangdong [8][17] 4. Data Overview - There are figures showing the weekly inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots, LME zinc inventory, the price trends of zinc in two markets, and SHFE monthly spreads, with data sources including Wind and SMM, and the research and development department of Jianxin Futures [11][14]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Copper prices may experience short - term range - bound fluctuations. Night - time copper prices closed 0.07% lower. Concentrate supply remains tight, squeezing smelting profits, but smelting output continues to grow rapidly. Multiple factors are intertwined, and attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. - Zinc prices may have short - term wide - range weak fluctuations. Night - time zinc prices closed 0.25% lower. Zinc concentrate processing fees have generally increased, and smelting profits have turned positive, with smelting output expected to continue rising. Short - term supply - demand differences may tilt towards oversupply [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Copper - Night - time copper prices closed 0.07% lower. Concentrate supply is tight, and smelting profits are under pressure, but smelting output shows high growth. The power industry has positive growth, photovoltaic installation is surging but future growth may slow, auto production and sales are positive, home appliance output growth is slowing, and the real estate market is weak. Copper prices may range - bound, and factors like the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand should be monitored [2]. Zinc - Night - time zinc prices closed 0.25% lower. Zinc concentrate processing fees are rising, smelting profits are positive, and smelting output is expected to rise. Galvanized sheet inventory is increasing weekly. Infrastructure investment has a small positive cumulative growth rate, auto production and sales are positive, home appliance output growth is slowing, and the real estate market is weak. Zinc prices may have wide - range weak fluctuations, and attention should be paid to the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. Market Data - Copper: Domestic previous - day futures closing price is 80,190 yuan/ton, domestic basis is 45 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month closing price is 10,002 dollars/ton, LME spot premium is - 72.44 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 147,650 tons with a daily change of - 1,225 tons [2]. - Aluminum: Domestic previous - day futures closing price is 20,750 yuan/ton, domestic basis is - 30 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month closing price is 2,655 dollars/ton, LME spot premium is 4.14 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 513,900 tons with no daily change [2]. - Zinc: Domestic previous - day futures closing price is 22,080 yuan/ton, domestic basis is - 85 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month closing price is 2,900 dollars/ton, LME spot premium is 45.99 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 47,825 tons with a daily change of - 1,000 tons [2]. - Nickel: Domestic previous - day futures closing price is 121,400 yuan/ton, domestic basis is - 1,260 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month closing price is 15,200 dollars/ton, LME spot premium is - 177.45 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 228,444 tons with a daily change of - 6 tons [2]. - Lead: Domestic previous - day futures closing price is 17,125 yuan/ton, domestic basis is - 120 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month closing price is 2,000 dollars/ton, LME spot premium is - 45.16 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 220,300 tons with a daily change of - 2,375 tons [2]. - Tin: Domestic previous - day futures closing price is 272,510 yuan/ton, domestic basis is - 3,280 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month closing price is 34,020 dollars/ton, LME spot premium is - 115.00 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 2,505 tons with a daily change of - 140 tons [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper: With macro disturbances decreasing and industrial support increasing, copper prices have stabilized and are expected to continue rising. After the short - term profit - taking of long positions around the Fed's interest - rate cut, copper prices stabilized on Friday. At the industrial level, the decline in copper prices and the peak season have increased downstream replenishment willingness, providing support. Technically, attention should be paid to the technical support at the 80,000 - yuan level [3][53]. - Aluminum: Similar to copper, macro disturbances are decreasing and industrial support is increasing, leading to the stabilization of aluminum prices. After the Fed's interest - rate cut, long - position holders took profits, causing the price to decline. As the price falls, downstream replenishment willingness recovers, and with the upcoming double - festival stocking demand, industrial support is expected to strengthen. Technically, attention should be paid to the support of the 20 - day moving average [4][53]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Macro Factors - The Fed's September interest - rate cut was implemented last week, leading to a reverse market trend as the good news was realized. The US dollar index rebounded from its low, most non - ferrous metals saw a reduction in positions and price drops, and the stock index fluctuated at a high level. With the end of the September interest - rate cut, macro disturbances will gradually decrease, and the influence of the industry will increase. The approaching double festivals and the previous high - price wait - and - see attitude will increase the pre - festival stocking demand as prices fall, providing support for futures prices [8]. 3.2 Copper 3.2.1 Quantity and Price Trends - Last week, copper prices first rose and then fell. After the Fed's interest - rate cut, short - term long - position holders had a strong willingness to take profits, resulting in a significant reduction in positions and price drops in Shanghai copper. LME copper also faced strong technical pressure at the annual high, increasing the willingness of long - position holders to take profits. Since Friday, the profit - taking has ended, and copper prices have stabilized and rebounded, with Shanghai copper breaking through the 80,000 - yuan level and LME copper reaching the $10,000 level [3][53]. 3.2.2 Copper Ore Processing Fees - Copper ore processing fees have slightly rebounded from a low level [23]. 3.2.3 Electrolytic Copper De - stocking - The de - stocking of electrolytic copper has slowed down [26]. 3.2.4 Downstream Primary Processing - The monthly capacity utilization rate of copper downstream is presented in the report, but no specific analysis is provided [32]. 3.3 Aluminum 3.3.1 Quantity and Price Trends - Last week, aluminum prices continuously declined from a high level. After the Fed's interest - rate cut, long - position holders took profits, leading to a significant reduction in positions and price drops. Shanghai aluminum also reached an annual high, increasing the willingness of long - position holders to take profits [4][53]. 3.3.2 Upstream Industry Chain - Information on bauxite port inventory and alumina prices is presented, but no specific analysis is provided [41][45]. 3.3.3 Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory Accumulation - The inventory of electrolytic aluminum has increased. The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum rose last week as downstream buyers were more cautious due to high prices in September [4][53]. 3.3.4 Downstream Primary Processing - Information on aluminum rod capacity utilization, 6063 aluminum rod processing fees, and 6063 aluminum rod inventory is presented, but no specific analysis is provided [47][49][52]. 3.4 Conclusion - Copper: After the end of the short - term profit - taking of long positions, copper prices have stabilized and are expected to continue rising. The decline in copper prices and the peak season have increased downstream replenishment willingness, providing support. Attention should be paid to domestic inventory and the 80,000 - yuan technical support [3][53]. - Aluminum: As the price falls, downstream replenishment willingness recovers, and with the double - festival stocking demand, industrial support is expected to strengthen. Technically, attention should be paid to the support of the 20 - day moving average [4][53].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The report provides cross - market, cross - period, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for multiple non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, lead, nickel, and tin on September 19, 2025 [1][4][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: Spot price is 79,990 (domestic) and 9,871 (LME) with a ratio of 8.17; March price is 79,650 (domestic) and 9,943 (LME) with a ratio of 8.04. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.10, and the profit is - 357.73 [1] - **Zinc**: Spot price is 22,020 (domestic) and 2,944 (LME) with a ratio of 7.48; March price is 22,070 (domestic) and 2,920 (LME) with a ratio of 5.86. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.55, and the profit is - 3,166.55 [1] - **Aluminum**: Spot price is 20,780 (domestic) and 2,678 (LME) with a ratio of 7.76; March price is 20,785 (domestic) and 2,673 (LME) with a ratio of 7.79. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.37, and the profit is - 1,631.16 [1] - **Nickel**: Spot price is 120,900 (domestic) and 15,087 (LME) with a ratio of 8.01. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.17, and the profit is - 2,181.20 [1] - **Lead**: Spot price is 17,000 (domestic) and 1,967 (LME) with a ratio of 8.63; March price is 17,175 (domestic) and 2,011 (LME) with a ratio of 10.97. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.81, and the profit is - 359.88 [3] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the next month, March, April, May and the spot month are - 980, - 910, - 980, - 1000 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 505, 908, 1319, 1731 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads between the next month, March, April, May and the spot month are - 235, - 210, - 175, - 145 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 214, 335, 455, 576 [4] - **Aluminum**: The spreads between the next month, March, April, May and the spot month are - 125, - 125, - 135, - 140 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 216, 332, 449, 565 [4] - **Lead**: The spreads between the next month, March, April, May and the spot month are 65, 75, 65, 75 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 211, 317, 424, 530 [4] - **Nickel**: The spreads between the next month, March, April, May and the spot month are - 680, - 450, - 310, 40 respectively [4] - **Tin**: The 5 - 1 spread is 220, and the theoretical spread is 5583 [4] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of the current - month and next - month contracts minus the spot are 610 and - 370 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 549 and 848 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads of the current - month and next - month contracts minus the spot are 260 and 25 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 201 and 308 [5] - **Lead**: The spreads of the current - month and next - month contracts minus the spot are 100 and 165 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 189 and 302 [5] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper/Zinc, Copper/Aluminum, Copper/Lead, Aluminum/Zinc, Aluminum/Lead, Lead/Zinc**: The Shanghai (three - continuous) ratios are 3.61, 3.83, 4.64, 0.94, 1.21, 0.78 respectively, and the London (three - continuous) ratios are 3.41, 3.70, 4.96, 0.92, 1.34, 0.69 respectively [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Copper**: Overnight copper prices fluctuated within a narrow range. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, with mixed signals causing increased market volatility. LME, Comex, SHFE, and BC copper inventories all decreased. Downstream demand was weak due to high prices and macro uncertainties. Overall, copper prices can still be viewed as relatively strong, as a decline may lead to downstream restocking opportunities [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina trended strongly with a 0.88% increase in AO2601, while沪铝 and aluminum alloy trended weakly. Alumina's short - term decline space is limited as it approaches the cost line, and aluminum ingots showed narrow de - stocking. After the cancellation of tax rebates, scrap aluminum prices are further supported, and aluminum alloy is expected to continue to run strongly [1][2]. - **Nickel**: LME nickel was flat, and沪镍 fell 0.14%. LME inventory increased, and domestic SHFE warehouse receipts decreased. Nickel prices rose rapidly before and now face correction pressure, but overseas macro situations need to be monitored [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: The Fed's interest - rate cut, inventory changes, and weak downstream demand were the main factors affecting copper prices. Despite short - term caution, long - term prospects are relatively positive [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina's cost support, aluminum ingot de - stocking, and scrap aluminum price support are the key factors for the aluminum market [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Supply disruptions, price increases, and changes in inventory and demand in different sectors are the main factors influencing nickel prices [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: Market prices generally declined, with some inventory changes. For example, the price of flat - water copper decreased by 525 yuan/ton, and the social inventory decreased by 0.3 million tons [3]. - **Lead**: Most prices remained stable, with some minor declines in lead ore prices and inventory [3]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices declined slightly, and alumina inventory decreased by 1.0 million tons [4]. - **Nickel**: Nickel prices decreased, and nickel inventory increased in some areas [4]. - **Zinc**: The主力结算价 decreased slightly, and social inventory increased by 0.55 million tons [6]. - **Tin**: The主力结算价 increased slightly, and LmeS3 decreased by 2.1% [6]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [8][9][10][11][12]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the historical trends of SHFE near - far month spreads for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [14][15][16][17][18][19][20]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts present the historical trends of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [21][22][23][24][25][26]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [28][29][30][31][32][33]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts display the historical trends of social inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [34][35][36][37][38][39]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts show the historical trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 [40][41][42][43][44][45]. 3.4 Team Introduction - The research team consists of Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi, who have rich experience in non - ferrous metal research and have won many industry awards [47][48][49].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Fed's September interest - rate meeting is approaching. The market is pricing in the possibility of three rate cuts by the Fed this year, and the US dollar index is weakening. The traditional "Golden September and Silver October" season in China is coming, and the demand for non - ferrous metals may improve marginally. However, the upward space still requires positive resonance between fundamentals and macro factors. The realization of rate cuts will affect the subsequent market rhythm. If the rate cut is 25bp as expected, there may be profit - taking; if it exceeds expectations, the market may be stronger[12][13]. - Different non - ferrous metals have different market trends and investment suggestions. For example, copper prices are expected to have an upward - moving price center, and it is recommended to buy on dips; zinc prices are in a range - bound pattern, and it is advisable to be slightly bullish on dips; the aluminum industry chain is in a complex situation, and different products have different strategies such as temporary observation, short - position holding, and long - position reduction[3][4][5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Non - ferrous Metals Operating Logic and Investment Suggestions - **Macro Logic**: The "central bank super - week" is here. The Fed's rate - cut expectation trading may continue, and non - ferrous metals are fluctuating strongly. China's August economic data shows "slow industry, weak investment, and light consumption", and the expectation of a new round of policy easing is rising. The US consumer confidence is at a four - month low, further consolidating the expectation of a Fed rate cut this week. The US retail sales in August increased by 0.6% month - on - month[12]. - **Investment Suggestions for Different Metals**: - **Copper**: The price center is expected to move up. It is recommended to buy on dips, with a short - term upper pressure range of 81000 - 82000 yuan/ton and a lower support range of 79000 - 80000 yuan/ton. Consider selling near - month slightly out - of - the - money put options[3][14]. - **Zinc**: In a range - bound pattern. Consider being slightly bullish on dips, with an upper pressure range of 22800 - 23200 and a lower support range of 21600 - 21800[4][14]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: For aluminum, it is recommended to observe temporarily, with an upper pressure range of 21300 - 21700 and a lower support range of 20200 - 20500; for alumina, short positions can be held cautiously, with an upper pressure range of 3500 - 3700 and a lower support range of 2700 - 2900; for recycled aluminum alloy, long positions can be reduced, with an upper pressure range of 20800 - 21000 and a lower support range of 20000 - 20300[5][17]. - **Tin**: Observe before the Fed's interest - rate meeting, with an upper pressure range of 280000 - 290000 and a lower support range of 260000 - 265000. Consider buying out - of - the - money put options[6][7]. - **Lead**: Long positions can be held, with a short - term support at 16700 - 16800 and an upper pressure at 17400 - 17500. A wide - range option straddle strategy can also be considered[8]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: For nickel, adopt a dip - buying strategy, with an upper pressure at 125000 - 128000 yuan and a lower support at 118000 - 120000 yuan; for stainless steel, be slightly bullish on dips, with a support at 12700 - 12800 and an upper pressure at 13000 - 13200[9]. 3.2 Second Part: Non - ferrous Metals Market Review - The closing prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals are presented. For example, copper closed at 80560 with a decline of 0.40%, zinc closed at 22280 with an increase of 0.11%, etc.[19] 3.3 Third Part: Non - ferrous Metals Position Analysis - Different non - ferrous metal contracts have different net long - short positions, changes in net long and short positions, and influencing factors. For example, the alumina (AO2601) contract has a 1.81% increase, with a strong short position of the main force, and is affected by non - main - force funds[21]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Spot Market - The spot prices and price changes of non - ferrous metals are provided. For example, the Yangtze River Non - ferrous copper spot price is 80690 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.80%, and the Yangtze River Non - ferrous 0 zinc spot average price is 22180 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.27%[23][25]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Industry Chain - Relevant charts are presented for each non - ferrous metal, including inventory changes, processing fees, and price trends. For example, for copper, there are charts of exchange copper inventory changes and SMM social copper inventory changes[27][29]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Arbitrage - Various charts related to non - ferrous metal arbitrage are provided, such as the copper Shanghai - London ratio change and the Shanghai - copper and London - copper premium/discount[61]. 3.7 Seventh Part: Non - ferrous Metals Options - Charts related to non - ferrous metal options are provided, including historical volatility, weighted implied volatility, and changes in trading volume and open interest. For example, for copper, there are charts of copper option historical volatility and copper option weighted implied volatility[77].

20250917申万期货有色金属基差日报 | 摘要 | 可能短期区间波动 铜： | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 可能短期宽幅偏弱波动 锌： | | | 品种 | 观点 | 策略方向 | | | 铜：夜盘铜价收涨0.02%。精矿供应延续紧张状态，冶炼利润承压，但冶炼产 量延续高增长。国家统计局数据显示，电力行业延续正增长，光伏抢装同比 | | | 铜 | 陡增，未来增速可能放缓；汽车产销正增长；家电产量增速趋缓；地产持续 | 可能短期区 | | | 疲弱。多空因素交织，铜价可能区间波动。关注美元、铜冶炼产量和下游需 | 间波动 | | | 求等变化。 | | | | 锌：夜盘锌价收涨0.16%。锌精矿加工费总体回升，冶炼利润转正，冶炼产量 有望持续回升。中钢协统计的镀锌板库存周度增加。基建投资累计增速小幅 | | | 锌 | 正增长，汽车产销正增长，家电产量增速趋缓，地产持续疲弱。短期供求差 | 可能短期宽 | | | 异可能向过剩倾斜，锌价可能区间偏弱波动。建议关注美元、冶炼产量和下 | 幅偏弱波动 | | | 游需求等变化。 | | | | 分析师：李野 | | | | 从业资格号： ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - Copper prices may fluctuate within a short - term range due to the combination of factors such as tight concentrate supply, high smelting output growth, positive growth in the power and automotive industries, and weak real estate [2]. - Zinc prices may experience short - term wide - range and weak fluctuations as the supply - demand difference may tilt towards surplus, with factors like rising smelting output and weak real estate [2]. 3. Summary According to Related Content Copper - **Market Situation**: Night - session copper prices closed higher. Concentrate supply remains tight, squeezing smelting profits, but smelting output continues to grow rapidly. The power industry has positive growth, with a sharp year - on - year increase in PV installations (future growth may slow), automotive production and sales are growing, home appliance output growth is slowing, and the real estate sector is weak [2]. - **Price Outlook**: Copper prices may fluctuate within a range. Key factors to watch include the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. - **Market Data**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 81,000 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 70 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 10,189 dollars/ton, LME spot premium was - 61.93 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 153,950 tons with a daily decrease of 225 tons [2]. Zinc - **Market Situation**: Night - session zinc prices closed higher. Zinc concentrate processing fees have generally increased, turning smelting profits positive, and smelting output is expected to continue rising. Galvanized sheet inventory increased weekly, infrastructure investment has a small positive cumulative growth rate, automotive production and sales are growing, home appliance output growth is slowing, and the real estate sector is weak [2]. - **Price Outlook**: Zinc prices may have short - term wide - range and weak fluctuations as the short - term supply - demand difference may tilt towards surplus. Key factors to watch include the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. - **Market Data**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 22,235 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 85 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 2,982 dollars/ton, LME spot premium was 26.76 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 50,525 tons with a daily decrease of 100 tons [2]. Other Metals - **Aluminum**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 20,925 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 50 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 2,705 dollars/ton, LME spot premium was 4.77 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 485,275 tons with no daily change [2]. - **Nickel**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 122,500 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 460 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 15,425 dollars/ton, LME spot premium was - 185.68 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 225,084 tons with a daily increase of 1,932 tons [2]. - **Lead**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 17,150 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 130 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 2,002 dollars/ton, LME spot premium was - 47.54 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 229,575 tons with a daily decrease of 3,050 tons [2]. - **Tin**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 275,090 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 630 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 34,680 dollars/ton, LME spot premium was - 132.00 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 2,620 tons with a daily increase of 235 tons [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - **Copper**: Today, copper prices rebounded after hitting a low in the morning and fluctuated upwards during the day. The overall open interest increased slightly, and the main contract price touched the 81,000 mark again at the end of the session. Overseas interest rate cut expectations are rising, and the approaching September FOMC meeting is positive for copper prices. However, the slight increase in inventory on Monday is negative for futures prices. Technically, pay attention to the long - short battle at the 81,000 mark [5]. - **Aluminum**: Today, aluminum prices rebounded after hitting a low in the morning and fluctuated during the day. The open interest changed little. Overseas interest rate cut expectations are rising, and the approaching September FOMC meeting is positive for aluminum prices. The slight increase in social inventory on Monday is negative for futures prices. In the short term, aluminum prices may fall after rising. Pay attention to the support at the 21,000 mark [6]. - **Nickel**: Today, Shanghai nickel decreased in open interest and declined. Overseas interest rate cut expectations are rising, driving up the non - ferrous sector. However, the continuous increase in domestic nickel ore port inventory and SHFE nickel inventory is negative for nickel prices. In the short term, the macro situation is driving up non - ferrous metals generally, and nickel prices may rebound from the low level. The willingness of previous short - sellers to close positions is strong. Pay attention to the pressure at the August high [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: On September 15, the spot inventory of electrolytic copper in the domestic market was 157,900 tons, an increase of 7,500 tons compared with August 8 and 8,900 tons compared with September 11 [9]. - **Aluminum**: On September 15, the spot inventory of electrolytic aluminum in the domestic market was 629,000 tons, unchanged compared with August 8 and an increase of 11,000 tons compared with September 11 [9]. - **Nickel**: On September 15, the mainstream reference contract for refined nickel in the Shanghai market was the SHFE nickel 2510 contract. The mainstream premium of Jinchuan electrolytic nickel was +2,300 yuan/ton, with a price of 124,650 yuan/ton; that of Russian nickel was +550 yuan/ton, with a price of 122,900 yuan/ton; that of Norwegian nickel was +2,600 yuan/ton, with a price of 124,950 yuan/ton; and that of nickel beans was +2,550 yuan/ton, with a price of 124,900 yuan/ton [10]. 2. Related Charts - **Copper**: There are charts showing copper basis, copper monthly spread, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper, overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [11][13][14]. - **Aluminum**: There are charts showing aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum, alumina inventory, and aluminum bar inventory [22][24][26]. - **Nickel**: There are charts showing nickel basis, nickel monthly spread, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, LME nickel trend, and nickel ore port inventory [34][36][38].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - **Copper**: Last night, Shanghai copper increased in position and rose, standing above the 80,000 mark, and LME copper stood above the $10,000 mark. Today, copper prices maintained a strong operation, with the position volume continuing to rise. The inflation in the US in August met expectations, increasing the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, and the overall non - ferrous metals rose. The domestic industrial peak season provided stronger support for the futures price. Technically, the futures price increased in position and rose above the 80,000 mark, with strong upward momentum [5]. - **Aluminum**: Last night, Shanghai aluminum increased in position and rose, and maintained a strong operation today, with the main futures price standing above the 21,000 mark. The overseas interest rate cut expectation increased, pushing up the non - ferrous metals sector. There was a concentrated pick - up phenomenon in LME warehouses, leading to a tight regional supply, making the aluminum price stronger than the non - ferrous metals sector. Technically, the aluminum price broke through the oscillation high since July, with strong upward momentum [6]. - **Nickel**: Today, Shanghai nickel decreased in position and fell. The overseas interest rate cut expectation increased, pushing up the non - ferrous metals sector. The domestic nickel ore port inventory and the SHFE nickel inventory continued to rise, which was negative for the nickel price. In the short term, the macro - environment promoted the general rise of non - ferrous metals, and the nickel price might have a low - level rebound trend. The willingness of previous short - sellers to close positions was strong. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the August high [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: Enterprises that reduced or stopped production due to environmental inspections in early September have fully resumed production. After the copper price rose this week, the supply in the recycled copper raw material market increased. The operating rate of SMM's scrap - produced anode plate enterprises this week was 51.89%, a month - on - month increase of 3.00 percentage points. It is expected to continue to rise by 3.84 percentage points to 55.73% next week [9]. - **Nickel**: On September 12, the prices of refined nickel in the Shanghai market were as follows: Jinchuan electrolytic nickel was 124,250 - 124,450 yuan/ton, up 1,620 yuan/ton; Russian nickel was 122,550 - 122,650 yuan/ton, up 1,720 yuan/ton; nickel beans were 124,550 - 124,650 yuan/ton, up 1,620 yuan/ton [9]. 2. Relevant Charts - **Copper**: Charts include copper basis, copper monthly spread, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper (social inventory + bonded area inventory), overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancellation warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [10][12][13] - **Aluminum**: Charts include aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum (LME + COMEX), alumina inventory, and aluminum bar inventory [22][24][26] - **Nickel**: Charts include nickel basis, nickel monthly spread, LME nickel inventory and cancellation warrant ratio, LME nickel trend, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [34][36][38]