技术外溢推动新兴领域成长，大飞机、低空经济、商业航天开启发展新阶段 该行认为，1)大飞机： 2026 年国产大飞机批产及交付能力有望继续提升，国产化需求有望牵引航空产 业链升级;2)商业航天：卫星互联网空间段建设进入常态化组网阶段，2026年应用环节产业化进程有望 加速，商业火箭技术进步与资本运作标志性事件有望密集落地;3)低空经济场景试点逐步进入落地阶 段，2026 年低空经济有望延续高质量发展态势。 盈利预测与估值 智通财经APP获悉，中金发布研报称，展望2026年，内外需求共振有望助力航空航天行业景气延续，新 域新质方向弹性有望释放，受益于特种技术外溢的商业航天等板块发展有望加速。该行建议关注新域新 质领域、特种贸易核心标的及受益于特种技术外溢的新质生产力三大方向。 中金主要观点如下： "十五五"规划与特种贸易需求叠加，内外需求共振行业再续景气 1)2026 年是"十五五"计划开篇之年，百年建军目标牵引下，特种装备列装、换装进程持续推进。该行认 为内需层面行业仍有望维持景气。2)据SIPRI，2024 年全球国防开支同比增长9.4%至2.72 万亿美元，日 益复杂的地缘局势加剧特种装备需求。该行认为我国 ...

据了解，自2008年7月，第一架空客飞机大部件抵达天津以来，天津港已完成829艘次空客大部件"零缺陷"接卸。今年10月空中客车在天津启用第二条A320 系列飞机总装线，越来越多的空客大部件通过海路来到中国，在天津完成总装。 （文章来源：央视新闻） 凌晨2点左右，天津港内依然一派忙碌景象。一艘由德国驶来、装载12件空客飞机大部件的集装箱船在靠泊后开始启动吊装作业。 天津边检总站东疆边检站副站长王岩：我们高标准落实"速审直推"机制，在船舶靠港前办结预检手续，并第一时间向码头调度员发出手机指令，消除我们与 管理服务对象之间信息传递的"时差"，进一步优化通关环境和码头作业效率，为空客大部件接卸最大限度节约时间。 昨天，装载着12件空客飞机大部件的货轮靠泊天津港，这也是天津迎来的单次最大规模空客大部件入境。 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights mixed performance in major global stock indices, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average declining by 0.38% and the S&P 500 down by 0.09%, while the Nasdaq saw a slight increase of 0.13% [5][11] - The report indicates a potential 7% growth in global trade by 2025, driven by South-South trade and economic activities in East Asia and Africa, amounting to an increase of approximately $2.2 trillion [10] - The report notes that the U.S. private sector added an average of 4,750 jobs per week, ending a four-week streak of job losses, with job openings in October reaching 7.67 million, significantly above expectations [10] International Market Overview - European markets showed mixed results, with the DAX index rising by 0.45% while the CAC40 and FTSE 100 indices fell by 0.69% and 0.03% respectively, influenced by industrial data and fiscal concerns [5][11] - In the U.S. market, major indices experienced slight declines, with the Dow down 0.38% and the Nasdaq up 0.13%, as investors awaited the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision [5][11] - The Asia-Pacific market saw the Hang Seng Index drop by 1.29%, while the Nikkei 225 increased by 0.14%, reflecting varied investor sentiment across sectors [5][11] Company News - Medline, a major player in the medical supplies sector, is planning a significant IPO, potentially raising up to $5.37 billion, which could be the largest IPO of 2025 [16] - SpaceX is preparing for its IPO in mid-2026, contingent on market conditions [16] - In the A-share market, notable announcements include a developer conference by Moore Threads and a licensing agreement between Fosun Pharma's subsidiary and Pfizer for a new diabetes treatment [16]

国内市场综述 弱势整理 缩量回调 周二（12 月 9 日）大盘弱势整理，缩量回调。截至收 盘，上证综指收于 3909.52 点，下跌 0.37%；深成指 收于 13277.36 点，下跌 0.39%；科创 50 下跌 0.27%； 创业板指上涨 0.61%，万得全 A 成交额共 19177 亿元， 较前一日有所下降。 行业方面，30 个中信一级行业有 27 个下跌，其中通 信、商贸零售及电子收涨，而房地产、钢铁及有色金 属则跌幅较大。概念方面，覆铜板、光交换机及光模 块等指数表现活跃。 海外市场综述 美股三大指数收盘涨跌不一，摩根大通跌超 4% 周二（12 月 9 日），美国三大股指收盘涨跌不一，道 指跌 0.38%，标普 500 指数跌 0.09%，纳指涨 0.13%。 摩根大通跌超 4%，波音跌近 3%，领跌道指。万得美国 科技七巨头指数涨 0.14%，特斯拉、谷歌涨超 1%。中 概股多数下跌，百度集团跌超 4%，贝壳跌近 4%。 新闻精要 1. 李强同主要国际经济组织负责人举行"1+10"对话 会 市场研究部证券研究报告 2025 年 12 月 10 日 2. 两项无人机实名登记与运行识别强制性国标发布 ...

2025年12月10日早盘，A股三大指数集体小幅低开，截至 10:13，中证高端装备细分50指数下跌0.01%。 成分股方面涨跌互现，中科星图领涨5.69%，菲利华上涨3.68%，三角防务上涨1.81%；富士达领跌，航 天发展、四创电子跟跌。 高端装备ETF(159638)紧密跟踪中证高端装备细分50指数，聚焦航空航天、军工装备、卫星导航等细分 领域龙头企业。 场外投资者可通过中证高端装备细分50ETF联接基金（018028）布局行业轮动机会。 展望未来，中信证券指出，随着中国星网和G60千帆星座先后进入批量化发射阶段，以及海南商业航天 发射场和商业运载火箭的投入使用，大运力、低成本趋势正引领商业航天开启新时代，同时空间算力也 进一步打开行业天花板，万亿市场规模的新赛道即将扬帆起航，为相关产业链带来巨大的发展契机。 数据显示，截至2025年11月28日，中证高端装备细分50指数前十大权重股分别为中航沈飞、航发动力、 中航光电、中航西飞、菲利华、西部超导、中航机载、中国长城、航天电子、中国卫星，前十大权重股 合计占比44.74%。 近期商业航天迎来密集催化，"朱雀三号"首飞为我国商业航天向可复用时代迈出的关键一 ...

【机构观点】 太平洋证券指出，近年来，我国国防预算增幅长期维持在7%左右，国防支出占GDP的比重不到1.5%， 低于世界主要军事大国的平均水平。我国国防支出仍有较大增长空间，未来或长期高于GDP增速2个百 分点左右。随着现代战争形态向信息化、智能化加速演进，未来我国国防支出结构将向新域新质方向倾 斜，而且军贸出口有望打开更大市场空间，行业或将进入内需外贸双轮驱动的快速发展阶段。 【更多产品】 截至2025年12月10日 09:52，航空航天ETF天弘(159241)盘中换手2.76%，成交1405.13万元。跟踪的国证 航天航空行业指数(CN5082)上涨0.80%，成分股国科军工(688543)上涨6.32%，盟升电子(688311)上涨 6.01%，航宇科技(688239)上涨5.16%，三角防务(300775)上涨4.46%，航新科技(300424)上涨3.57%。 截至12月9日，航空航天ETF天弘(159241)近半年规模增长3.47亿元，实现显著增长。 【产品亮点】 航空航天ETF天弘(159241)提供了高效把握核心军工空天机遇的工具，其跟踪国证航天指数，军工属性 极强，申万一级军工行业占比97 ...

12 月政治局会议传递的信号 20251209 中国政策重心转向高质量发展，不再片面追求经济增速，更强调结构调 整和增长质量，预计"十五"期间经济增长中枢在 4.5%左右，2026 年 增长目标或设在 5%左右。 财政政策将维持积极态势，赤字率或小幅提升至 4%-4.2%，专项债规 模预计与预算持平或略增，但特别国债和超长期特别国债的使用将适度 收缩。 货币政策延续适度宽松基调，但除非外部环境剧变，否则宽松力度有限， 结构性政策工具将继续发力，重点支持科技、绿色等领域，以促进物价 合理回升和金融稳定。 国际经贸方面，中国将灵活应对外部环境变化，若外需承压，将加大逆 周期调节力度。尽管中美关系波动可控，但需警惕欧洲和日本可能出现 的贸易摩擦对中国出口的影响。 消费刺激策略将从耐用品消费扩展到养老消费等新领域，以维持当前消 费水平并开辟新的增长点。政府侧重通过提升服务业供给来挖掘消费潜 力，而非直接刺激需求。 Q&A 摘要 如何解读 2026 年中央政治局会议传递的经济信号？ 2026 年中央政治局会议传递的主要经济信号可以从逆周期与跨周期相结合的 视角进行解读。在中美博弈、社会稳定、结构转型和经济增长四个层次中 ...

1. Market Performance Overnight Stock Indices - US major stock indices closed mixed, with the Dow Jones down 0.38% at 47560.29 points, the S&P 500 down 0.09% at 6840.51 points, and the Nasdaq up 0.13% at 23576.49 points [5] - European major stock indices also closed mixed, with the German DAX up 0.45% at 24153.3 points, the French CAC40 down 0.69% at 8052.51 points, and the UK FTSE 100 down 0.03% at 9642.01 points [6] Bond Yields - US Treasury yields rose across the board, with the 2 - year yield up 4.80 basis points to 3.615%, the 3 - year up 4.84 basis points to 3.652%, the 5 - year up 4.73 basis points to 3.788%, the 10 - year up 2.35 basis points to 4.188%, and the 30 - year up 0.81 basis points to 4.809% [6] Commodities - International precious metal futures generally closed higher, with COMEX gold futures up 0.45% at $4236.6 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 4.72% at $61.16 per ounce. Brent crude oil futures fell 0.61% to $62.11 per barrel [6] - London base metals all declined, with LME aluminum down 1.47% at $2845.50 per ton, LME copper down 1.42% at $11470.00 per ton, etc. [8] 2. Important Macroeconomic News China - Premier Li Qiang emphasized China's commitment to open - cooperation, stating confidence in achieving annual economic goals, with the economy set to maintain a stable and positive trend [10] Australia - RBA Governor Bullock highlighted upside inflation risks, stating that inflation and employment data will be crucial for the February meeting. The possibility of tightening policy was discussed, and a data - driven approach will be taken for future rate decisions [10] US - ADP's weekly employment report showed that private - sector employers added an average of 4750 jobs per week in the four weeks ending November 22 [10] 3. Futures Market News Energy and Chemical Futures - As of December 5, 2025, polyethylene social sample warehouse inventory was 45.65 million tons, down 2.99 million tons from the previous period, a 6.14% decrease. Chinese polyethylene import warehouse inventory decreased by 6.59% month - on - month and 9.83% year - on - year [13] - Iraq set the official selling price of Basra Medium crude oil for North and South America in January at a $1.15 discount to the Argus sour crude price, and for Asia at a $1.05 discount to the Oman/Dubai average price [13] - EIA's short - term energy outlook report predicted US crude oil production to be 13.85 million barrels per day in December, 13.86 million in November, and 13.71 million in January [14] Metal Futures - Chongqing launched a yellow alert for heavy pollution on December 9, affecting some recycled aluminum enterprises, which have started to reduce production or shut down [17] - A polysilicon capacity integration and acquisition platform, Beijing Guanghe Qiancheng Technology Co., Ltd., was established on December 9, 2025, with a registered capital of 3 billion yuan [17] Black - Series Futures - The General Administration of Market Supervision issued production license implementation rules for 24 industrial products, effective April 1, 2026 [20] - HeSteel Group's first - round inquiry price for silicon - manganese in December was 5700 yuan per ton, lower than the November price. The purchase volume was 14700 tons, also lower than in November [20] - Coking enterprises agreed to implement production cuts of at least 30% to ease supply pressure and stabilize prices, and to reduce or stop purchasing high - priced coal [20] - The Henan Bureau of National Mine Safety Supervision ordered Anyang Dazhong Coal Industry Co., Ltd. to suspend production for 1 day due to major accident hazards [21] - The China Iron and Steel Association warned that the recent rise in iron ore prices is due to capital speculation, and the high inventory and weak demand will suppress price increases [21] Agricultural Futures - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs' December report on China's agricultural product supply - demand situation showed that the outlook for soybeans remained unchanged from November. High - protein soybeans in Northeast China are in short supply, while low - protein soybeans have a surplus [23] - As of December 7, Brazil's soybean sowing rate was 90.3%, and the first - crop corn sowing rate was 71.3% [24] - China's imported soybean arrivals in December are expected to decline slightly. As of December 6, the average oil - mill operating rate was 57.42%, down 4.79% from the previous week [24] - Argentina reduced export taxes on soybeans, soybean by - products, wheat, barley, corn, and sorghum [25] - Brazil's expected exports of soybeans, soybean meal, and corn in December are 3.33 million tons, 1.83 million tons, and 6.3 million tons respectively, higher than previous forecasts [25] - The USDA maintained its forecast for US 2025/2026 soybean production at 4.253 billion bushels, ending stocks at 290 million bushels, and yield at 53 bushels per acre. It also kept the forecasts for Argentina and Brazil's soybean production unchanged [26] 4. Financial Market News Stock Markets - A - shares: The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.37% to 3909.52 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.39%, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.61%. Resource and Hainan - related stocks declined, while CPO concepts and some other sectors strengthened [28] - Hong Kong stocks: The Hang Seng Index fell 1.29% to 25434.23 points, with losses in sectors such as non - ferrous metals and semiconductors [28] - As of now, 1465 A - share listed companies have conducted share repurchases this year, with a total repurchase amount of 140.538 billion yuan. About 80% of these stocks have risen this year, and about 81.91% were profitable in the first three quarters [28] - Many state - owned banks have announced and implemented mid - year dividend plans, with the total cash dividend of the six major state - owned banks expected to exceed 200 billion yuan [29] - 23 listed securities firms have implemented mid - year dividends this year, with a total of 10.683 billion yuan distributed. Another 14 have announced plans to distribute 11.133 billion yuan [29] - In 2025, institutional research on the Beijing Stock Exchange increased significantly, with over 95% of companies being surveyed. YiFangDa Fund is authorized to launch an ETF tracking the HKEX Technology 100 Index [30] Overseas News - The UNCTAD reported that global trade will grow by about 7% (an increase of $2.2 trillion) in 2025, reaching a record $35 trillion [35] - The Fed is expected to cut rates for the third time, with market expectations of a 25 - basis - point cut. Trump said he would support a large - scale rate cut and might adjust tariffs [35] - ADP data showed that US private employers added an average of 4750 jobs per week in the four weeks ending November 22, ending four weeks of job losses. US job openings in October were 7.67 million, exceeding expectations [36] - Ukrainian President Zelensky is ready for elections and requests assistance from the US and Europe. The elections can be prepared within 60 - 90 days [37] - The Swiss government withdrew an incorrect announcement about the US tariff cut on Swiss goods. The Bank of Japan will gradually adjust monetary policy, and the RBA maintained the interest rate at 3.60% [37] International Stock Markets - US major stock indices closed mixed, with some large - cap stocks leading the decline. Japan's IPO financing reached the highest level since 2018, and Medline plans to raise up to $5.37 billion through an IPO [40] - SpaceX plans an IPO in mid - to - late 2026, depending on market conditions [42] Commodities - Precious metals rose, while oil prices fell due to concerns about increased US production and expected supply surplus in 2026. Base metals declined, and iron ore prices are under pressure from high inventory and weak demand [43] - EIA's report adjusted the price forecasts for Brent and WTI crude oil in 2025 and 2026 [44] - Russia's November crude oil production was over 100,000 barrels per day below the target, the largest gap in over two years [46] Bonds - The domestic bond market recovered, with bond yields falling and futures prices rising. US Treasury yields rose due to factors such as Fed policy expectations and inflation [47] Forex - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose 20 basis points to 7.0693 at 16:30, and the US dollar index rose 0.14%. Non - US currencies mostly declined, except for the Australian dollar and the offshore RMB [48] 5. Upcoming Economic Indicators and Events Economic Indicators - Key indicators to be released include Japan's December Reuters Tankan index, China's November CPI/PPI, etc. [51] Events - Key events include the expiration of 793 billion yuan of reverse repurchases in China, speeches by central bank governors, and rate decisions by the Bank of Canada, etc. [53]

来源：环球网 【环球网财经综合报道】北京时间12月10日凌晨，美国三大股指收盘涨跌不一，道指跌0.38%报 47560.29点，标普500指数跌0.09%报6840.51点，纳指涨0.13%报23576.49点。摩根大通跌超4%，波音跌 近3%，领跌道指。万得美国科技七巨头指数涨0.14%，特斯拉、谷歌涨超1%。 消息面上，ADP最新数据显示，截至11月22日的四周内，美国私营雇主平均每周新增4750个就业岗位， 结束了此前连续四周的就业流失。另外，美国10月JOLTS职位空缺767万人，远超预期的711.7万人。 德国电视一台近日发文称，投资者期待美联储在周三晚的议息会议中降息，以便提振股市，尤其是美国 股市，如道琼斯指数和标普500指数。 但报道也提到，市场观察家警告谨慎对待。许多投资者已经预计降息，因此他们可能会利用这一机会锁 定利润。此外，考虑到美国顽固的通胀，货币宽松政策并未确定。同时，部分市场专家也保持谨慎，投 资组合管理公司QC Partners的Thomas Altmann表示："股价上涨时，投资者会更加谨慎。目前，鲜有人 愿意承担重大新风险。" ...

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，上大股份（301522.SZ）12月10日在投资者互动平台表示，公司已与航天科技/航天科工集 团下属院所开展合作，已成为其高温合金等材料的合格供应商，产品主要用于固体火箭发动机壳体、液 体火箭发动机热端部件、火箭平衡舵轴等结构件和其他航天器耐高温、高强度关键零部件的制造。公司 参与了多型号相关航天发动机等装备所用特种合金产品的试制验证和批产交付工作。 ...