钢铁、水泥和铝冶炼3个行业被纳入全国碳市场，三者都是高碳排产业，但排放源有所不同。钢铁和水 泥行业的碳排放主要来自生产制程（制造业中的一系列生产流程和环节），而铝冶炼行业的碳排放主要 来自电力使用。因此，铝冶炼的脱碳关键在于电力绿化，包括以绿电投资来推动绿电的开发和使用。 铝产业链的环节有铝矿开采、氧化铝生成、电解制铝、铝材加工等，其中电解环节的碳排放最多，约占 总量的70%。铝冶炼采用"冰晶石—氧化铝熔盐电解"工艺，涉及以氧化铝作为电解质，以碳素材料作为 电极。这个流程在直流电作用下发生电化学反应，氧化铝与碳阳极的还原反应产生二氧化碳，在阴极析 出铝液。以全球平均数来看，每吨铝阳极氧化过程产生的直接碳排放约为两吨CO2，其余则为电力相关 的间接碳排放。 我国电解铝的用电以传统煤电为主，各家厂商的电力碳排放虽会受到当地电网及其自备电力碳强度的影 响，但行业的平均电力相关碳强度约为12吨CO2 /吨铝，其中75%来自煤电排放。因此，煤电"换绿"是我 国电解铝脱碳的关键。 然而，绿电投资的资金金额大，回报周期长，收益不确定，开发风险高，民间资本的参与意愿不足。对 此，电解铝厂商可与电力产业共同探索可行投资模式，如 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - With China's electrolytic aluminum operating capacity approaching the upper limit of 45 million tons, overseas electrolytic aluminum supply has become the main variable in global supply. The report aims to analyze the operating conditions of major overseas aluminum smelting enterprises and predict the supply trend [2][4]. - Overseas electrolytic aluminum supply is highly concentrated and mainly located in regions rich in energy resources. Currently, with sufficient energy supply and an improved aluminum market, the overall overseas electrolytic aluminum operating rate is rising. However, due to the high capacity utilization rate, the production increase from capacity expansion is limited. Existing capacity increments may come from Europe, North America, Latin America, and Africa. In terms of new capacity, the Middle East, India, and Indonesia in Southeast Asia have clear and large - scale expansion plans, which are expected to be important sources of overseas electrolytic aluminum supply growth [2][34]. 3. Company - Specific Summaries 3.1 Rusal - Rusal is a leading global aluminum company, ranking third in global aluminum smelting production in 2024 with an output of nearly 4 million tons, accounting for about 5.5% of the global total [5]. - Its smelting plants are mainly in Russia (Siberia and Ural regions) and overseas. In 2024, its existing aluminum plants had an operating capacity of 42.05 million tons with a utilization rate of 95%, leaving limited room for further improvement [6][7]. - In 2024, Asia was its largest sales market, accounting for 42.9%. Due to sanctions from Europe and the United States, it sold more aluminum ingots to Asia, especially China, where its revenue from China accounted for 30.7% in 2024, up from 6.4% in 2021 [12]. 3.2 Rio Tinto - Rio Tinto is a leading global mining and metal company and one of the top ten global aluminum producers, with a complete industrial chain from bauxite mining to electrolytic aluminum smelting [14]. - Its electrolytic aluminum plants are mainly in Australia, Canada, Iceland, New Zealand, and Oman, mostly using hydropower. In 2025, its planned production is basically the same as in 2024 (equity production of about 3.3 million tons). It is also promoting the expansion of the Arvida AP60 project in Canada, which will add 160,000 tons of capacity and is planned to be put into operation in the first half of 2026 [15][16]. 3.3 Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) - EGA is the largest aluminum company in the Middle East and one of the top ten global electrolytic aluminum producers. In 2024, it produced 2.69 million tons of electrolytic aluminum with relatively stable production [17][20]. 3.4 Vedanta Resources - Vedanta Aluminium, a subsidiary of Vedanta Resources in India, is the largest aluminum producer in India and one of the top ten global electrolytic aluminum producers. In 2024, its total output was 2.417 million tons, a 2.4% increase from 2023. In 2025 Q1, its aluminum production remained stable. It is promoting the expansion of the Balco aluminum plant (adding about 410,000 tons of capacity), planned to be put into operation in the 2025 - 2026 fiscal year, with a long - term plan to increase annual capacity to 3 million tons [21]. 3.5 Alcoa - Alcoa is a leading global aluminum company with a wide - ranging business. In 2024, its electrolytic aluminum output was about 2.215 million tons, and in Q1 2025, it was about 564,000 tons. In 2025, with the further increase in the smelting plant operating rate, it plans to produce 2.3 - 2.5 million tons of electrolytic aluminum [22][24]. 3.6 Hydro - Hydro is the largest comprehensive aluminum group in Europe and a global leader, focusing on low - carbon hydropower aluminum. In 2024, its production at various plants showed different levels of output, with the Slovalco plant in Slovakia having no electrolytic aluminum output [25][28]. 3.7 Alba - Alba is a leading global aluminum smelting enterprise. In 2024, its output was 1.622 million tons, higher than in 2023. In Q1 2025, its output was 397,000 tons, with a slight decline. It is now aiming to increase capacity by renovating old production lines and installing new electrolytic cells [29]. 3.8 Hindalco - Hindalco is a comprehensive aluminum company in India and one of the lowest - cost aluminum producers globally. In 2024, it produced 1.327 million tons of electrolytic aluminum. It announced an investment plan in the 2024 fiscal year general meeting to expand its aluminum and copper smelting capacity, including expanding the Aditya aluminum smelting capacity by about 200,000 tons [30]. 3.9 South32 - South32 is a global mining and metal enterprise. Its electrolytic aluminum business is mainly in Brazil, South Africa, and Mozambique. In 2024, its production at different plants varied, with the Alumar plant in Brazil having an output of 118,000 tons (40% stake), the Hillside plant in South Africa having an output of 723,000 tons, and the Mozal plant in Mozambique having an output of 326,000 tons (63.7% stake) [31]. 3.10 Press Metal - Press Metal is the largest integrated aluminum producer in Southeast Asia. Its aluminum smelting plants are in Malaysia, with an annual capacity of about 1.08 million tons, all powered by hydropower, making it an important provider of low - carbon aluminum [32].

Core Viewpoint - The White House announced that Emirates Global Aluminium will invest $4 billion in developing an aluminum smelting project in Oklahoma [1] Group 1 - Emirates Global Aluminium is making a significant investment of $4 billion [1] - The investment is aimed at developing an aluminum smelting project in the state of Oklahoma [1]

Core Viewpoint - The 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China emphasizes the need to deepen ecological civilization reforms and promote a carbon trading market to achieve carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals [1] Group 1: Carbon Market Development - The national carbon emissions trading market currently covers 2,257 key emission units in the power generation sector, accounting for approximately 5.1 billion tons of CO2 emissions annually, which is about 40% of the national total [1] - The current carbon market is limited in industry coverage and has low market activity due to high homogeneity among participants, necessitating the inclusion of more high-emission industries such as steel, cement, and aluminum [1][2] - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment has issued a plan to gradually include the steel, cement, and aluminum industries into the national carbon emissions trading market, aiming to enhance carbon reduction efforts and create a more effective carbon market [1][2] Group 2: Policy Implementation and Mechanisms - The plan aims to expand the market coverage by incorporating around 1,500 enterprises from the steel, cement, and aluminum sectors, focusing on those with annual greenhouse gas emissions of 26,000 tons of CO2 equivalent [2] - It establishes a unified management system for emissions across various industries, enhancing the carbon pricing mechanism and encouraging companies to prioritize carbon management [2] - The plan outlines a multi-layered and differentiated collaborative control model for direct and indirect greenhouse gas emissions, integrating the carbon trading market with renewable energy and green certificate markets [2] Group 3: Data Management and Monitoring - The plan emphasizes improving carbon emission accounting standards and data governance, requiring enterprises to conduct high-quality measurements of key parameters and explore online monitoring technologies [3] - It mandates monthly verification of key parameters by major emission units and implements a three-tier data quality audit system to enhance transparency and reliability in the carbon trading market [3] Group 4: Allocation of Carbon Quotas - The plan details a phased approach to carbon quota allocation for the steel, cement, and aluminum industries, with the 2024 quota based on verified actual emissions, avoiding compliance costs for enterprises [4] - Future quotas for 2025 and 2026 will be determined based on carbon intensity, with a focus on minimizing the impact on normal business operations [4] - The plan aims to gradually tighten total quota limits to facilitate the transition of these industries towards green and low-carbon practices [4] Group 5: Recommendations for Policy Enhancement - The plan suggests establishing a long-term management mechanism for carbon emissions rights, gradually reducing annual quota totals while ensuring alignment with industry development stages [5][6] - It advocates for the integration of various policies to promote the collaborative development of carbon and electricity markets, enhancing the market's overall effectiveness [6]

作者：邱慈观，上海交通大学上海高级金融学院教授、可持续金融学科发展专项基金学术主任 李小千，可持续金融学科发展专项基金研究专员 生态环境部近期发布全国碳排放权交易市场的工作方案，将钢铁、水泥和铝冶炼三个产业纳入全国碳市 场。作为高碳排产业，与钢铁和水泥行业的碳排放主要来自生产制程不同，铝冶炼产业的碳排放主要来 自电力使用。 对于铝冶炼行业，其脱碳的关键在于绿电。然而绿电投资大，回报周期长，收益不确定。未来电解铝厂 商应与电力产业共探可行的投资模式，如通过合资模式来扩大资金来源、通过风险缓释机制来降低投资 风险等，从而创造有利环境，推动产业绿色转型。 绿电是铝冶炼脱碳关键 从国内外绿电投资经验看，企业可通过引入社会资本来降低绿电项目开发对其财务杠杆的影响。电解铝 厂商主要通过合资模式引入社会资本，以共同投资绿电项目，而电力企业则可通过另类投资工具募集社 会资本，以扩大资金规模。 合资模式上，当项目方与外部资本以合资方式参与绿电项目时，双方共同开发、共享收益，开发企业则 通过投资成本的分摊，降低自身杠杆，也通过引入社会资本提高项目落地的成功性。 铝产业链包括铝矿开采、氧化铝生成、电解制铝、铝材加工等环节，其中，电 ...

Group 1: Consumer Price Index (CPI) Insights - In April, the CPI increased by 0.1% month-on-month and decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, indicating a shift from decline to growth in the month-on-month comparison [1][3] - Food prices rose by 0.2%, while non-food prices increased by 0.1%, with service prices up by 0.3%, driven by seasonal factors and demand recovery [3][4] - The core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.5% year-on-year, reflecting stable supply-demand dynamics [3][10] Group 2: Producer Price Index (PPI) Trends - The PPI decreased by 0.4% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year, with the decline attributed to international input factors and seasonal drops in energy prices [1][9] - Certain industrial sectors showed signs of price stabilization, with black metal and non-metal mineral product prices experiencing reduced year-on-year declines [5][6] - The PPI's month-on-month decline was influenced by falling prices in the petroleum and natural gas extraction sectors, as well as in the non-ferrous metal industries [9][10] Group 3: Economic Policies and Market Dynamics - The People's Bank of China noted that policies aimed at expanding domestic demand are beginning to take effect, which is expected to support a moderate recovery in price levels [1][10] - Recent macroeconomic policies, including interest rate cuts and structural tools, are designed to stimulate domestic demand and support price stability [10] - The upcoming holiday seasons are anticipated to boost service prices, contributing to a potential recovery in the core CPI [10]

Core Insights - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.1% month-on-month in April, while year-on-year it decreased by 0.1%. The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.4% month-on-month and by 2.7% year-on-year [1][2]. CPI Analysis - The month-on-month CPI change shifted from decline to increase, with a core CPI increase of 0.2% month-on-month and a stable year-on-year increase of 0.5%. This reflects the resilience of the economy [2][4]. - Food prices rose by 0.2%, and service prices increased by 0.3%, driven by seasonal factors and demand recovery during the holiday period [3][4]. PPI Analysis - The PPI's month-on-month decline of 0.4% was consistent with the previous month, influenced by international factors and seasonal declines in energy prices [8][10]. - Certain industrial sectors showed signs of price recovery, with reduced year-on-year declines in sectors such as black metal smelting and non-metallic mineral products [5][6]. Sector Performance - High-tech industries and construction activities contributed to a positive trend in some industrial prices, with specific sectors like wearable smart devices and aircraft manufacturing showing price increases [5][6]. - The international oil price decline negatively impacted domestic oil-related industries, leading to price drops in sectors such as petroleum extraction and refining [10]. Economic Outlook - The People's Bank of China anticipates that policies aimed at expanding domestic demand will support a moderate recovery in price levels [2][11]. - Recent monetary policies, including interest rate cuts and structural tools, are expected to stimulate domestic demand and support price stability [11].

Group 1 - After the Labor Day holiday, Shanghai aluminum futures continued to decline, with the main contract dropping to a low of 19,300 yuan/ton, driven by market uncertainty and expectations of weaker future demand [1] - Analysts indicate that the bearish sentiment in the market is partly due to the transition from the peak consumption season to a period of lower demand, as well as the impact of U.S. tariff policies on exports [1][3] - The supply of electrolytic aluminum remains at historically high levels, while downstream processing rates have begun to decline, leading to an accumulation of nearly 40,000 tons of aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventory during the holiday [1][3] Group 2 - The average cost of electrolytic aluminum is around 16,500 yuan/ton, influenced by a significant drop in alumina prices, which may exert further downward pressure on aluminum prices amid weakening consumption expectations [3][5] - The macroeconomic environment, including potential monetary easing and the easing of U.S.-China trade tensions, could provide some support for aluminum prices, although concerns about the negative impact of tariffs on global demand persist [4][5] - The market is closely monitoring the performance of inventory and the spot market, as well as the upstream alumina prices, to gauge future trends in aluminum pricing [5]

《洞见ESG》4月刊 ESG强制信披倒计时 政策速递 证监会发文规范A股ESG信披，这458家上市公司须做好准备 近日，证监会发布修订后的《上市公司信息披露管理办法》，第六十五条明确提出"上市公司按照证券 交易所的规定发布可持续发展报告"。该《信披办法》于2025年7月1日起正式施行。 【点击查看详 情】 铝冶炼纳入碳市场有何影响？2026年碳配额缺口或达34万吨，企业需尽快降低碳成本 铝冶炼纳入碳市场的管控范围与电力行业有所不同。电力行业只管控化石燃料燃烧排放，而新纳入的 铝冶炼行业，除了化石燃料燃烧排放，工业过程排放也纳入管控。 【点击查看详情】 1200家水泥企业将纳入全国碳市场，如何减碳？ 按照单吨水泥碳排放550kg计算，近十年我国水泥工业每年碳排放在11亿吨以上。纳入全国碳市场的水 泥企业或达1200家，目前企业减排压力不大，但预计三到五年内碳配额将收紧，减排成本将上升。 【点击查看详情】 全国碳市场首次扩围：纳入钢铁、水泥、铝冶炼行业，新增1500家重点排放单位 生态环境部发布《全国碳排放权交易市场覆盖钢铁、水泥、铝冶炼行业工作方案》。此次扩围后，预 计全国碳排放权交易市场重点排放单位将达到37 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - The market digests the news of tariff mitigation and domestic policy benefits, which will drive some bargain - hunting in the market. However, the new US tariffs are in contradiction, economic data is mixed, and global demand concerns remain. With stable supply, a tail - end of the consumption peak season but still resilient demand, and the pre - May Day stocking period, the aluminum price is expected to fluctuate with a positive bias, testing the pressure at the 20,000 yuan mark [2][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data - LME aluminum 3 - month price rose from 2385 yuan/ton on April 17, 2025, to 2459.5 yuan/ton on April 24, 2025, an increase of 74.5 yuan/ton. SHFE aluminum continuous - three price rose from 19565 dollars/ton to 19815 dollars/ton, an increase of 250 dollars/ton. The Shanghai - London aluminum ratio decreased from 8.2 to 8.1. LME aluminum inventory decreased from 439325 tons to 423575 tons. SHFE aluminum warehouse receipt inventory decreased from 95909 tons to 76763 tons. Aluminum ingot social inventory decreased from 68.9 tons to 65.8 tons, and domestic mainstream consumption area aluminum rod inventory decreased by 3.14 tons [3] 3.2 Market Review - The weekly average price of Yangtze River spot in the spot market was 19948 yuan/ton, an increase of 202 yuan/ton compared with last week; the weekly average price of Nanchu spot was 19904 yuan/ton, an increase of 168 yuan/ton compared with last week [4] 3.3 Market Outlook - Similar to the core view, the market digests tariff mitigation and policy benefits, but there are still concerns. Fundamentally, supply is stable, consumption is in the tail - end of the peak season with some resilience. During the pre - May Day stocking period, the aluminum price is expected to fluctuate with a positive bias [7] 3.4 Industry News - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment issued a notice on carbon emission trading market work, requiring tasks and time limits for key emission units in industries such as aluminum smelting. The US President will exempt some tariffs on automobile manufacturers, steel, and aluminum, and the Wall Street Journal reported that Chinese tariffs may drop to 50% - 65%. From January to March 2025, the national new photovoltaic installed capacity was 59.71GW, a year - on - year increase of 30.5% [8] 3.5 Related Charts - The report provides 10 charts including LME aluminum 3 - SHFE aluminum continuous - three price trends, Shanghai - London aluminum ratio, LME aluminum premium, etc., which can be used for further analysis of the aluminum market [9][10][13]