Core Viewpoint - The subsidy war among food delivery platforms is reaching its end due to regulatory intervention, highlighting the need for sustainable innovation and service capability competition rather than price wars [1][4][5] Group 1: Impact on Restaurants - Many restaurants are experiencing reduced dine-in orders as consumers prefer cheaper delivery options, leading to a decline in overall profitability [1][2] - The financial burden of subsidies has increased significantly for small and medium-sized restaurants, with some facing unsustainable costs due to high promotional expenses from platforms [2][3] - The negative impact of low-price competition is evident, as restaurants struggle to maintain profitability while still covering operational costs such as rent and labor [3][4] Group 2: Regulatory Changes - The newly revised Anti-Unfair Competition Law, effective from October 15, aims to regulate chaotic competition and prevent platforms from forcing merchants to sell below cost [6][7] - Regulatory bodies are actively engaging with major platforms to ensure compliance with laws and promote fair competition within the food service industry [4][5] Group 3: ESG Considerations - The subsidy war has exposed significant shortcomings in platforms' ESG responsibilities, affecting the entire industry ecosystem and raising concerns about food safety and quality [4][8] - Experts emphasize the need for platforms to balance the interests of merchants, consumers, and delivery personnel as part of their ESG commitments [8][9] - The environmental impact of increased packaging waste from delivery services is a growing concern, necessitating a shift towards sustainable practices [8][9] Group 4: Future Directions - Platforms are encouraged to move away from low-price competition and focus on innovative business models that support small merchants and community values [8][9] - There is a call for enhanced regulatory frameworks to ensure fair practices and transparency in platform operations, particularly regarding algorithmic decision-making [9]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [4] Core Insights - Domestic gold jewelry consumption decreased by nearly 30% in the first half of 2025 due to high gold prices, with total gold consumption at 505.21 tons, down 3.54% year-on-year. Gold jewelry consumption specifically fell to 199.83 tons, a decrease of 26% [1][3] - The demand for gold bars and coins increased significantly, with a rise of 23.69% to 264.24 tons, while industrial and other gold usage saw a slight increase of 2.59% to 41.14 tons [1] - The performance of gold jewelry companies varied, with Chow Tai Fook reporting a 1.9% decline in retail value for FY2026Q1, while Lao Pu Gold expected a revenue increase of approximately 240%-252% in the same period [2][28] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - In the first half of 2025, gold jewelry consumption was significantly impacted by high gold prices, leading to a 26% decline in gold jewelry sales. However, demand for gold bars remained strong, driven by investment needs amid geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty [1][3] Company Performance - Chow Tai Fook's retail value in mainland China fell by 3.3% in FY2026Q1, while its performance in Hong Kong and Macau improved by 7.8%. The company closed 311 underperforming stores in mainland China [2][25] - Lao Pu Gold projected a substantial increase in sales and profits for the first half of 2025, with expected revenues between 138-143 billion yuan and net profits between 22.3-22.8 billion yuan, marking a growth of approximately 279%-288% [28] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on five investment themes, including the continuous upgrade of AI technology, the high demand for emotional value in consumer purchases, and the recovery of cyclical sectors. Beneficiaries include companies like Keri International, Focus Technology, and others in the new retail space [3][53][56]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [3] Core Insights - The report highlights the focus on weight management and healthy eating, driven by the "Weight Management Year" initiative, with significant market potential in the low-sugar, low-fat, and high-fiber food segments [5][20][25] - The tourism sector is expected to see a significant increase in traffic following the official closure of Hainan Free Trade Port on December 18, 2025, which will implement favorable tax policies [15][18] - The AI-enabled social platform, ZhiZi City Technology, is projected to achieve a revenue growth of 38.0% to 41.5% in the first half of 2025, indicating strong performance in the social business segment [28][30] - The health food market in China is anticipated to grow significantly, with the market size expected to exceed 800 billion yuan by 2027, driven by rising health awareness among consumers [22][23][33] Summary by Sections 1. Travel and Tourism - Hainan will officially close its borders at the end of 2025, leading to a potential surge in visitor numbers post-closure [15] - The implementation of "zero tariff" policies and low tax rates will enhance Hainan's position as a key processing and value-added base [15][16] 2. Weight Management and Healthy Eating - The prevalence of overweight and obesity in China has surpassed 50%, with over 140 million diabetes patients, creating a sustained demand for low-sugar and low-fat foods [23][26] - The Chinese nutrition and health food market is projected to grow from 3.796 trillion yuan in 2017 to over 8 trillion yuan by 2027 [20][21] 3. AI and Social Platforms - ZhiZi City Technology expects total revenue of 31.35 to 32.15 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting a growth of 38.0% to 41.5% compared to the same period in 2024 [28][30] - The company's social business is anticipated to generate revenue of 28.00 to 28.60 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 35.4% to 38.3% [28] 4. Health and Wellness - The global health food market is expected to reach 191.5 billion USD by 2024, with China's health food market projected to grow to 260.2 billion yuan [37][39] - The demand for dietary supplements is increasing, with 64% of health-conscious individuals opting to purchase health products [33][41]

Group 1 - The core focus of the article is on significant economic events occurring from July 28 to August 3, particularly the US-China trade negotiations and the impending tariff deadline on August 1, which are expected to impact global trade dynamics [1][4][10] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision is highly anticipated, with expectations that there will be no rate cuts in July, despite ongoing discussions about economic conditions [13][14][16] - Major US companies, including Microsoft, Meta, Apple, Amazon, Qualcomm, Boeing, and Starbucks, are set to release their earnings reports, which could lead to market volatility [3][25] Group 2 - The article highlights the ongoing trade talks between the US and China, with a focus on the tariffs that are set to take effect on August 1, including a 50% tariff on copper imports [4][6][10] - The article discusses the economic outlook for China, with expectations that the upcoming political bureau meeting will affirm a stable economic environment while acknowledging external pressures [11][12][21] - The article notes that the Japanese central bank is likely to maintain its target interest rate at 0.5%, influenced by ongoing US-Japan trade negotiations and domestic inflation concerns [22][23] Group 3 - Microsoft is expected to report strong earnings driven by its investments in artificial intelligence and operational efficiency, with a target price set at $530 [26] - Meta's second-quarter revenue is projected to reach $44.71 billion, reflecting a 14% year-over-year growth, with a consistent track record of exceeding market expectations [28] - Apple's revenue for the quarter is anticipated to be $90.7 billion, a 5.8% increase from the previous year, primarily due to strong iPhone sales [29] - Amazon's revenue is expected to hit $162 billion, supported by growth in its AWS and retail sectors, despite concerns over tariffs [30][31] - Qualcomm is in the process of acquiring Alphawave for approximately $2.4 billion, pending regulatory approval [32] - Boeing forecasts a significant increase in earnings per share and revenue, driven by strong demand for commercial aircraft [33] - Starbucks is launching free study areas in select stores in China to boost customer traffic amid increasing competition [34] - WuXi AppTec's stock has reached a new high, reflecting strong institutional support and positive market sentiment [35]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to multiple companies including Pop Mart, Anta Sports, Haidilao, and Miniso, while Budweiser APAC is rated "Neutral" [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant developments in the F&B, designer toys, and home appliance sectors, indicating a strong growth trajectory for companies like Pop Mart and Miniso, with Pop Mart aiming to become a world-class consumer brand [2][6]. - The report notes the performance of key companies, with Haidilao showing a weekly increase of 4.3%, while Nayuki and Green Tea Group experienced declines of 7.5% and 6.2% respectively [3][7]. Summary by Category F&B Sector - Haidilao's first premium store opened in Beijing, focusing on high-quality ingredients and a refined dining experience [2]. - The National Development and Reform Commission has allocated 69 billion yuan for consumer goods trade-in funds, boosting sales in the sector [2]. Designer Toys Sector - Pop Mart's production capacity has doubled, and the company is considering collaborations with major film studios [2]. - Miniso is launching a summer-themed flash store, showcasing limited edition products [2]. Home Appliance Sector - The report mentions the launch of JD's first self-service takeaway store, "Seven Fresh Kitchen," emphasizing fresh cooking without pre-prepared meals [2]. - DJI is entering the home appliance market with a new vacuum cleaner robot set to launch on August 26 [2].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for certain Japanese consumer companies, particularly Asics, Pan Pacific International Holdings, Fast Retailing, and Asahi Group, due to their optimistic profit growth prospects [5]. Core Insights - High temperatures in June boosted sales of beverages and summer clothing, while duty-free consumption saw a significant decline [2][13]. - The consumer confidence index in Japan rose to 34.5 in June, the highest in four months, indicating improved consumer sentiment [7]. - The report highlights a mixed performance across different sectors, with essential goods showing resilience while discretionary spending faced challenges [4][26]. Summary by Sections Macro Overview - The consumer confidence index increased to 34.5 in June, up from 32.8 in May, with all sub-indices showing improvement [7]. - Core CPI rose by 3.3% year-on-year in June, a decrease from 3.7% in May, indicating a slowdown in inflation [9]. - The producer price index (PPI) increased by 2.9% year-on-year in June, reflecting easing cost pressures for producers [11]. Essential Consumption - Drugstore same-store sales showed positive growth, with PPIH, 7-Eleven, and Aeon reporting increases of 4.5%, 2.0%, and 2.1% respectively [3][15]. - Beverage sales turned positive due to high temperatures, with Suntory and Asahi reporting year-on-year sales growth of 1% and 9% respectively [18]. - The overall beer industry faced challenges, with Asahi's domestic revenue declining by 1% and Kirin's by 2% [20]. Discretionary Consumption - Clothing sales remained robust, with Workman and Uniqlo reporting same-store sales growth of 15.0% and 6.4% respectively [28]. - Restaurant same-store sales growth slowed, with major brands like Food&Life and McDonald's showing increases of 14.5% and 3.6% respectively [26]. - Department store sales continued to decline, with a 7.8% year-on-year drop in June, primarily due to a 40.6% decrease in duty-free sales [34]. Stock Market Performance - In June, the retail sector index rose by 3.7%, while the food and beverage sector increased by 0.7% [42]. - The report notes significant inflows into retail and food and beverage ETFs, indicating investor interest in these sectors [5].

Group 1: Dongpeng Beverage - Dongpeng Beverage reported a significant increase in revenue and profit for H1 2025, with revenue reaching 10.74 billion yuan, a 36.4% increase year-on-year, and net profit of 2.37 billion yuan, up 37% [2] - The "Bup Shui La" electrolyte drink series saw a remarkable performance, with revenue doubling to 1.49 billion yuan, accounting for 13.91% of total revenue [2] - The company is expanding its production capacity with plans for 13 production bases, of which 9 are already operational, focusing on key markets [3] Group 2: Starbucks - Starbucks launched a "study room" initiative in several cities, allowing customers to use the space for free without purchase requirements, aiming to attract younger customers [4][5] - The company has faced declining sales, with a 1.4% drop in revenue for FY2024 and a 6% decline in same-store sales for Q1 FY2025 [6] Group 3: LVMH - LVMH reported a 4% decline in revenue for H1 2025, with net profit down 22% to 5.7 billion euros, primarily due to poor performance in the Asia-Pacific region [7] - The luxury goods sector continues to face pressure, with LVMH's stock price dropping approximately 30% over the past 12 months [9] Group 4: Pop Mart - Pop Mart's LABUBU brand is projected to sell nearly 10 million units monthly by September 2024, with significant revenue growth expected [10] - The company is focusing on optimizing its supply chain to meet high demand and has seen a revenue increase of at least 200% in H1 2025 [10][11] Group 5: Other Companies - OATLY is considering separating its Greater China operations to accelerate growth, as the market's contribution to overall performance is minimal [20] - Deckers reported a 17% revenue increase in Q1 FY2026, with HOKA sales growing by 19.8% [21]

Economic Growth - Hong Kong's economy has shown resilience, with a growth of 3.1% in Q1 2023 following a 2.5% growth in 2022, and is expected to continue this upward trend for the tenth consecutive quarter [1][3] - The growth is driven by export activities, overall investment, and private consumption, with optimistic forecasts for the upcoming Q2 GDP figures [1][3] Private Consumption - Private consumption is gaining momentum due to sustained economic activity, inflow of funds, a favorable stock market, and a stabilizing property market [3][4] - Retail sales recorded their first year-on-year growth in 14 months in May, indicating a recovery in consumer sentiment, with expectations for a positive June [4] Employment and Wages - The employment market in Hong Kong remains stable, with a notable increase in median monthly income for full-time employees, rising by 6.8% year-on-year to HKD 25,000 [4][5] - New industries are developing rapidly, and traditional sectors are also adapting, leading to increased hiring and wage adjustments, although some labor-intensive sectors like retail and dining face challenges [5] Government Initiatives - The government is actively seeking new economic growth points and supporting innovation and technology development to attract more businesses and create high-quality jobs [5][6] - Efforts are being made to explore overseas markets and develop supply chain management centers to enhance Hong Kong's competitiveness in a complex geopolitical landscape [6]

Group 1 - The focus of the upcoming week includes the China-US trade negotiations and the tariff deadline on August 1, which will significantly impact global trade dynamics [5][7] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision is highly anticipated, with a strong likelihood of maintaining current rates [15][17] - Key economic data releases include US non-farm payrolls, GDP, and PCE data, as well as China's official manufacturing PMI [5][18][22] Group 2 - Major companies reporting earnings include Microsoft, Meta, Apple, Amazon, Qualcomm, Boeing, and Starbucks, indicating a peak earnings season for US stocks [6][25] - Microsoft is expected to show strong performance driven by its AI investments and operational efficiency, with a target price of $530 [26] - Meta's Q2 revenue is projected at $44.71 billion, reflecting a 14% year-over-year increase, with a strong history of exceeding market expectations [27] - Apple is anticipated to report revenues of $90.7 billion, a 5.8% increase from the previous year, primarily due to strong iPhone sales [28] - Amazon's revenue is expected to reach $162 billion, driven by growth in AWS and retail operations [29][30] - Qualcomm is in the process of acquiring Alphawave for approximately $2.4 billion, pending regulatory approval [31] - Boeing forecasts a significant increase in earnings and revenue, with a long-term demand outlook for commercial aircraft remaining positive [32] - Starbucks is introducing free study rooms in select locations in China to boost customer traffic amid increasing competition [32] - WuXi AppTec's stock has reached a 60-day high, with strong institutional support and a focus on innovative healthcare solutions [33]

A-shares - A-shares steadily rose this week, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 1.67% to close at 3593.66 points, reaching a weekly high of 3613.02 points [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index rose by 2.33%, while the ChiNext Index increased by 2.76% [1] - Sectors such as water conservancy, infrastructure, rare earths, rare metals, and artificial intelligence showed strong performance [1] Hong Kong Stocks - The Hang Seng Index continued its upward trend, rising by 2.27% to 25388.35 points, while the Technology Index increased by 2.51% to 5677.9 points [2] - Southbound funds recorded a net inflow of over 30 billion HKD this week [2] - The building materials and semiconductor sectors led the gains [2] US Stocks - All three major US stock indices closed higher this week, with the Dow Jones up 1.26%, the Nasdaq up 1.02%, and the S&P 500 up 1.46% [3] - Large tech stocks had mixed performances, with Intel's stock experiencing a significant decline [3] Positive Developments - The 2025 World Artificial Intelligence Conference commenced, attracting over 800 participating companies, with more than 50% being international [4] - TikTok's revenue is projected to reach 23 billion USD in 2024, marking a 42.8% year-on-year growth, making it the fourth largest social app by revenue [4] - Alibaba's new open-source Qianwen 3 reasoning model has been launched, claiming to be on par with top closed-source models [5] - The Chinese Automotive Circulation Association reported that the Xiaomi SU7 has the highest one-year retention rate among electric vehicles at 88.91% [6] - Yushutech released its third humanoid robot, UnitreeR1, priced from 39,900 CNY [7] Negative Developments - Former President Trump announced plans to impose tariffs of 15% to 50% on most countries [10] - Tesla reported a second-quarter revenue of 22.496 billion USD, a 12% year-on-year decline [10] - Louis Vuitton experienced a data breach affecting nearly 420,000 customers in Hong Kong [11] - Intel is implementing a layoff plan affecting approximately 15% of its workforce, aiming to reduce its total employee count to about 75,000 by year-end [11] - Amazon's AWS Shanghai AI research institute has been dissolved due to strategic adjustments [12] - China Duty Free Group reported a 20.81% year-on-year decline in net profit for the first half of 2025 [12] IPOs and Listings - Shanda Electric and Jiyuan Group debuted on the A-share market, with significant first-day gains of 356% and 274.54%, respectively [16] - Yushutech has initiated its IPO counseling, with plans to submit its application by October [17] - Several companies, including Liyou Technology and Jiangsu Zhonghui Biotechnology, have submitted applications for H-share listings in Hong Kong [18][21] - Universal Music Group has secretly filed for a U.S. IPO [22] - McGraw Hill raised 414.63 million USD in its IPO, pricing shares at 17 USD each [26]