南华期货沥青风险管理日报 2025年8月6日 凌川惠（投资咨询证号：Z0019531） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 沥青价格区间 | 品种 | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沥青主力合约 | 3400-3750 | 22.30% | 8.95% | source： wind,南华研究,同花顺 沥青风险管理策略建议 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 套保比例（%） 建议入场区间 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 | 产成品库存偏高，担心沥青价格 | 多 | 为了防止存货叠加损失，可以根据企业的库存情况，做空 | bu2509 | 卖出 | 25% | 3650-3750 | | | 下跌 | | 沥青期货来锁定利润，弥补企业的生产成本 | | | | | | 采购管理 | 采购常备库存偏低，希望根据订 | 空 | 为了防止沥青价格上涨而 ...

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The report suggests appropriate layout of long positions as the market sentiment shows signs of warming up [1][3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Review - Treasury bond futures opened slightly lower and then rose continuously, turning down and fluctuating lower in the afternoon, with the gains significantly narrowing at the end. The long - end was relatively weaker, the short - end contracts saw a catch - up rise, and the forward contracts continued to over - rise, narrowing the inter - period spread. The open market had 30.9 billion yuan in maturities and 13.85 billion yuan in new operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 17.05 billion yuan. Liquidity remained abundant, with the overnight price in the inter - bank market stable at around 1.3% and GC001 at around 1.5%. The capital sentiment index showed that small and medium - sized institutions and non - banks were relatively tighter, but the pressure was not significant [1] 2. Intraday News - Starting from September 29, South Korea will implement a temporary visa - free policy for Chinese group tourists [2] - On August 5 local time, the US Defense Security Cooperation Agency announced that the US State Department approved the sale of a batch of M777 howitzers and related equipment to Ukraine, along with maintenance services and support for this weapon, with an estimated value of $104 million [2] 3. Market Sentiment Analysis - There was a rumor of large banks buying bonds in the morning, which led to a strong market. Even without the rumor and despite the significant narrowing of gains in the afternoon, the market sentiment showed signs of warming up. The bond market was relatively desensitized to the strong performance of the stock market and commodities, maintaining gains under strong risk. Funds had continuous net subscriptions, and the net subscription scale expanded today [3] 4. Data Overview - **Contract Prices and Changes**: On August 6, 2025, TS2509 was at 102.37 (up 0.018 from the previous day), TF2509 at 105.78 (up 0.025), T2509 at 108.565 (up 0.015), and TL2509 at 119.34 (down 0.04) [4] - **Contract Positions and Changes**: TS contract positions decreased by 1087 to 108,202 hands, TF contract positions decreased by 959 to 186,234 hands, T contract positions decreased by 1346 to 236,282 hands, and TL contract positions decreased by 704 to 153,142 hands [4] - **Base Spreads and Changes**: TS base spread (CTD) was 0.0136 (up 0.0213), TF base spread (CTD) was 0.0031 (up 0.002), T base spread (CTD) was 0.0147 (down 0.1037), and TL base spread (CTD) was 0.1287 (down 0.21) [4] - **Transaction Volumes and Changes**: TS main contract transactions decreased by 3357 to 27,216 hands, TF main contract transactions decreased by 5520 to 47,098 hands, T main contract transactions decreased by 5077 to 64,393 hands, and TL main contract transactions decreased by 21334 to 78,797 hands [4] - **Fund Rates and Changes**: DR001 was 1.3143% (down 0.0003), DR007 was 1.4445% (down 0.0073), and DR014 was 1.4753% (down 0.0179) [4] - **Fund Transaction Amounts**: DR001 transaction amount was 2692.65767 billion yuan, DR007 was 9.570987 billion yuan, and DR014 was 1.444292 billion yuan, with no change from the previous day [4]

新浪期货 根据交易所数据，截至8月06日收盘主力合约硅铁2509,涨跌+4.27%,成交量49.26万手，持仓数据显示前20席位呈现净 空，差额头寸为14237手。 硅铁期货全合约总计成交84.06万手，比上一日新增46.59万手。全合约前20席位多头持仓34.59万手，比上一日增加3.51万手。全合 约前20席位空头持仓37.34万手，比上一日增加2.81万手。 根据合并数据显示，多头前三席位为东证期货，总持仓47954、国泰君安，总持仓35971、中信期货，总持仓35556；空头前三席位 为东证期货，总持仓63148、中信期货，总持仓39248、国泰君安，总持仓32688； 主力合约前20席位中，多头增仓前三名分别是：海通期货、持仓3975、增仓2673，宏源期货、持仓3187、增仓1468，国泰君安、 持仓13340、增仓1396；多头减仓前三名分别是：广发期货、持仓2086、减仓-1021，中财期货、持仓2492、减仓-623，光大期 货、持仓1942、减仓-484； 主力合约前20席位中，空头增仓前三名分别是：宝城期货、持仓7286、增仓6385，山金期货、持仓5154、增仓5067，建信期货、 持 ...

2025年8月6日红枣主力合约2601持仓数据一览 | | 名次 会员名称 成交量(双边) | | 壇減 | 会员 | 持买单 | 壇減 | 会员 | 持卖单 | 增减 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | J | 国泰君安 | 23,179 | 4,943 | 国泰君安 | 6,036 | 161 | 国泰君安 | 13,159 | -1,416 | | 2 | 中信期货 | 21,913 | 1,785 | 广发期货 | 5,158 | 269 | 东证期货 | 6,551 | 221 | | 3 | 东证期货 | 13,301 | -2,391 | 方正中期 | 4,535 | 531 | 中粮期货 | 6,465 | ਦਾ | | 4 | 走闻期货 | 11,610 | 316 | 中信期货 | 4,183 | -440 | 大地期货 | 6,084 | 197 | | 5 | 王矿期货 | 7,351 | 3,945 | 东证期货 | 3,965 | 2 | 中信期货 | 5,995 | 251 | | 6 ...

南华贵金属日报: 降息预期回升 贵金属偏强 夏莹莹（投资咨询证号：Z0016569） 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年8月6日 【行情回顾】 周二贵金属市场震荡回升，最终SHFE黄金2510主力合约782.5元/克，+0.26%；SHFE白银2510合约收 9075元/千克，+0.82%。近期美经济数据不佳以及政府对美联储施压等影响，美联储9月降息预期回升是价 格上涨主因。美国7月ISM非制造业PMI为50.1，低于预期51.5，和前值50.8。美国总统特朗普表示美联储主 席是政治性的，鲍威尔降息太晚；可能很快会宣布新的美联储主席。 【本周关注】 本周数据清淡。事件方面，周四03：10，2027年FOMC票委、旧金山联储主席戴利发表讲话 ；22：00， 2027年FOMC票委、亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克线上参加佛罗里达州首席财务官协会有关货币政策的炉边谈 话；周五22：20，2025年FOMC票委、圣路易联储主席穆萨莱姆发表讲话。 周四19：00，英国央行公布利 率决议、会议纪要和货币政策报告 。 【南华观点】 中长线或偏多，短线仍主要由多头掌握局面，伦敦金有望延续回升，支撑3340 ...

Report Basics - Report Title: Nanhua Futures Copper Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: August 6, 2025 [1] - Research Team: Nanhua Non - Ferrous Metals Research Team [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report Core Views - Copper prices were slightly stronger on Monday and Tuesday, mainly a correction of the previous decline. The price difference between LME copper and COMEX copper is basically stable, and it's hard to see LME copper price exceeding COMEX copper price in the short - term. However, there are still undercurrents in the spot market and inventory. The short - term oversold situation of COMEX copper may slightly boost the valuations of the other two copper markets. Investors should be vigilant about the negative impact of weak copper demand [3] Detailed Summaries Copper Price and Volatility - The latest copper price is 78,580 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 73,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 11.64%, and the current volatility's historical percentile is 22.6% [2] Copper Risk Management Suggestions - **Inventory Management**: For high - level finished product inventory and fear of price decline, with a long spot exposure, it is recommended to sell 75% of the Shanghai copper main futures contract at around 82,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the CU2509C82000 call option when volatility is relatively stable [2] - **Raw Material Management**: For low - level raw material inventory and fear of price increase, with a short spot exposure, it is recommended to buy 75% of the Shanghai copper main futures contract at around 75,000 yuan/ton [2] Factors Affecting Copper Prices - **Likely Positive**: Agreement on tariff policies between the US and other countries, decline of the US dollar index due to employment data, and obvious lower support [4] - **Likely Negative**: Fluctuations in tariff policies, reduction of global demand due to tariff policies, and extremely high COMEX inventory caused by US copper tariff policy adjustments [4][5] Copper Futures and Spot Data - **Futures**: The latest price of Shanghai copper main contract is 78,580 yuan/ton with no daily change; Shanghai copper continuous - one contract is 78,580 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan (0.32%); Shanghai copper continuous - three contract is 78,560 yuan/ton with no daily change; LME copper 3M is 9,634.5 US dollars/ton, down 74 US dollars (- 0.76%); the Shanghai - London ratio is 8.15, down 0.01 (- 0.12%) [4] - **Spot**: The latest price of Shanghai Non - Ferrous 1 copper is 78,615 yuan/ton, up 195 yuan (0.25%); Shanghai Wumaotrade is 78,630 yuan/ton, up 285 yuan (0.36%); Guangdong Nanchu is 78,460 yuan/ton, up 290 yuan (0.37%); Yangtze Non - Ferrous is 78,790 yuan/ton, up 280 yuan (0.36%) [6] Copper Scrap - Refined Spread - The current refined - scrap spread (tax - included) is 834.04 yuan/ton, up 53.61 yuan (6.87%); the reasonable refined - scrap spread (tax - included) is 1,486 yuan/ton, up 1.6 yuan (0.11%); the price advantage (tax - included) is - 651.96 yuan/ton, up 52.01 yuan (- 7.39%) [8] Copper Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - **Shanghai Futures Exchange**: The total Shanghai copper warehouse receipts are 18,767 tons, down 1,581 tons (- 7.77%); the total international copper warehouse receipts are 1,553 tons with no change [12] - **LME**: The total LME copper inventory is 153,850 tons, up 14,275 tons (10.23%); the registered warehouse receipts are 141,850 tons, up 14,350 tons (11.25%); the cancelled warehouse receipts are 12,000 tons, down 75 tons (- 0.62%) [14] - **COMEX**: The total COMEX copper inventory is 262,190 tons, up 8,759 tons (3.46%); the registered warehouse receipts are 112,243 tons, up 2,790 tons (0%); the cancelled warehouse receipts are 149,947 tons, up 1,010 tons (0.68%) [16] Copper Import and Processing - The copper import profit and loss is - 262.02 yuan/ton, down 113.2 yuan (76.07%); the copper concentrate TC is - 42 US dollars/ton with no change [17]

盘面点评： 国债期货日报 2025年8月5日 市场降波 观点：波段交易，等待布局机会 南华研究院 高翔（Z0016413） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 国债期货全天震荡上行，斜率不算陡峭，但波动同样比较平稳。午后盘中转头回落，涨幅有所收窄，最终除 TS2509外，其余合约均收涨。期现两端表现一致，长端均强于短端，5Y以上现券收益率均小幅回落约 0.5bp，而短端则基本持平。此外，日内12合约普遍强于09，跨期价差向下小幅修正。公开市场到期4492亿 元，央行新做1607亿，日内净回笼2885亿元。资金利率保持平稳，隔夜匿名和DR001加权保持在1.31%附 近，非银尾盘资金需求增加，交易所隔夜下午逐步走高至1.54%附近。总体来看，流动性保持平稳。 日内消息： 1.央行等七部门联合印发《关于金融支持新型工业化的指导意见》。《意见》加强金融服务能力和长效机制建 设，促进保持制造业合理比重投入。健全金融机构服务制造业的内部机制安排，单列制造业信贷计划，针对 细分行业和企业成长阶段特点制定差异化授信政策。 行情研判： 债市日内稳步走强，结合周一的小幅上涨，目前对增值税恢复利好老券的逻辑的计价是 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core View - Overnight, influenced by the rising expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, the U.S. stocks soared due to the trading of economic expectation repair, and the Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index rose 1.33%. Affected by this information, the morning review suggested that the sentiment might be optimistically driven, which was basically verified by today's stock market trend. At the industry level, the robot concept has been strong in recent days, and the financial and real - estate sectors also led the rise. At the futures index level, after the small - cap futures index has been strong for many days, today's trading data shows that IF and IM tend to have long - position additions, while IC and IM tend to have short - position closures, and the subsequent strength may switch. In terms of trend, the previous view is maintained. Due to the lack of obvious positive pull, it is difficult to have continuous rises, and the overall market is expected to fluctuate around the current central level [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Today, the stock index continued to rise, and the small - cap stocks maintained their strength. In terms of capital, the trading volume of the two markets increased by 97.31 billion yuan. In the futures index market, IF and IH rose with increasing volume, while IC and IM rose with decreasing volume, and the sentiment of large - cap futures indexes was positive [3] Important Information - China's S&P Services PMI in July rose to 52.6, the highest since May last year. Goldman Sachs expects the Fed to start cutting interest rates in September, with three consecutive 25 - basis - point rate cuts. The bank also said that if the next employment report shows a further rise in the unemployment rate, the Fed may cut interest rates by an additional 50 basis points [4] Strategy Recommendation - Futures Index Market | Index | Main Contract Intraday Change (%) | Trading Volume (10,000 lots) | Trading Volume MoM (10,000 lots) | Open Interest (10,000 lots) | Open Interest MoM (10,000 lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IF | 0.84 | 8.0521 | 0.3421 | 25.564 | 0.1005 | | IH | 0.83 | 4.0737 | 0.2218 | 9.2725 | 0.066 | | IC | 0.66 | 6.5859 | - 1.1728 | 21.5144 | - 0.1806 | | IM | 0.90 | 15.5305 | - 3.3934 | 32.9938 | - 0.711 | [6] Strategy Recommendation - Spot Market | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index Change (%) | 0.96 | | Shenzhen Component Index Change (%) | 0.59 | | Ratio of Rising to Falling Stocks | 3.12 | | Trading Volume of the Two Markets (billion yuan) | 15960.81 | | Trading Volume MoM (billion yuan) | 975.31 | [7]

Core Insights - The main contract for soda ash (contract 2509) closed at a price increase of 2.01% as of August 5, with a trading volume of 993,600 lots and a net short position among the top 20 positions of 109,594 lots [1][3]. Trading Volume and Positions - Total trading volume for all soda ash contracts reached 2,509,000 lots, with an increase of 58,500 lots compared to the previous day [1]. - Among the top 20 positions, long positions totaled 1,098,100 lots, a decrease of 61,200 lots from the previous day, while short positions totaled 1,400,800 lots, a decrease of 45,600 lots [1]. Major Players - The top three long positions were held by Guotai Junan (total position 105,247), CITIC Futures (total position 83,012), and Dongzheng Futures (total position 69,631) [1]. - The top three short positions were held by Guotai Junan (total position 191,270), CITIC Futures (total position 178,585), and Yong'an Futures (total position 178,125) [1]. Changes in Positions - The top two long position increases were from Zheshang Futures (holding 10,995, increase of 2,285) and Yong'an Futures (holding 19,138, increase of 1,700) [1]. - The top three long position decreases were from Dongzheng Futures (holding 26,779, decrease of 11,134), Guotai Junan (holding 51,087, decrease of 9,304), and Guangfa Futures (holding 17,311, decrease of 8,281) [1]. - The top three short position increases were from Dongzheng Futures (holding 51,092, increase of 1,111), Guotou Futures (holding 10,925, increase of 991), and CITIC Jiantou (holding 11,792, increase of 717) [1]. - The top three short position decreases were from Guotai Junan (holding 97,325, decrease of 22,495), Yong'an Futures (holding 73,093, decrease of 10,406), and Guangfa Futures (holding 10,463, decrease of 6,574) [1].

Core Insights - The main contract for the 30-year Treasury futures closed at 2509 on August 5, with a slight increase of 0.06% and a trading volume of 100,100 contracts, indicating a net long position among the top 20 holders with a difference of 3,543 contracts [1][3]. Group 1: Trading Volume and Positions - Total trading volume for all contracts was 120,200, which is a decrease of 3,460 contracts from the previous day [1][4]. - The top 20 holders had a total long position of 125,900 contracts, down by 3,184 contracts, while the total short position was 125,700 contracts, a decrease of 1,942 contracts [1][4]. Group 2: Major Players - The top three long positions were held by CITIC Futures (27,833 contracts), Guotai Junan (17,150 contracts), and Ping An Futures (9,487 contracts) [1][4]. - The top three short positions were also held by CITIC Futures (16,180 contracts), Guotai Junan (15,641 contracts), and Galaxy Futures (10,917 contracts) [1][4]. Group 3: Changes in Positions - Among the top 20 holders, the largest increase in long positions was seen in Zhongtai Futures (2,126 contracts, up by 467), CITIC Futures (16,480 contracts, up by 347), and GF Futures (4,094 contracts, up by 96) [1][3]. - The largest decrease in long positions was recorded by Guotai Junan (10,876 contracts, down by 2,125), Guojin Futures (2,552 contracts, down by 638), and Hongyuan Futures (6,986 contracts, down by 367) [1][3].