玻璃纯碱产业风险管理日报 2025/06/27 寿佳露（投资咨询证号：Z0020569） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 【核心矛盾】 玻璃：需求保持偏弱预期，低价但缺乏驱动；未有计划外的冷修预期 纯碱：过剩预期保持一致，且远期仍有新投产能；成本下移 【利多解读】 玻璃纯碱价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 玻璃 | 900-1100 | 26.75% | 72.2% | | 纯碱 | 1000-1250 | 20.12% | 17.0% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 玻璃纯碱套保策略表2 | | 行为 | 情景分析 | 现货 | 策略推荐 | 套保工 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例 | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 导向 | | 敞口 | | 具 | | （%） | | | 玻 | 库存 | 产成品库存偏高， | 多 | 为了防止存货叠加损失，可以根 ...

新浪期货 根据交易所数据，截至6月27日收盘主力合约2年期国债期货2509,涨跌+0.03%,成交量3.73万手，持仓数据显示前20席位 呈现净空，差额头寸为18880手。 2年期国债期货期货全合约总计成交3.84万手，比上一日新增1.31万手。全合约前20席位多头持仓8.81万手，比上一日增加72手。 全合约前20席位空头持仓10.70万手，比上一日增加48手。 根据合并数据显示，多头前三席位为中信期货，总持仓18555、平安期货，总持仓9321、中信建投，总持仓7969；空头前三席位为 中信期货，总持仓36922、广发期货，总持仓15533、国泰君安，总持仓11576； 主力合约前20席位中，多头增仓前三名分别是：永安期货、持仓2301、增仓232，国泰君安、持仓5314、增仓181，华泰期货、持 仓3351、增仓157；多头减仓前三名分别是：格林大华、持仓2590、减仓-304，和融期货、持仓2010、减仓-210，平安期货、持仓 9321、减仓-170； 主力合约前20席位中，空头增仓前三名分别是：中信期货、持仓36922、增仓1051，平安期货、持仓4241、增仓219，国泰君安、 持仓11576、 ...

source： 同花顺,南华研究 南华期货锡风险管理日报 锡风险管理建议（日度） 2025年6月27日 南华有色金属研究团队 肖宇非 投资咨询证号：Z0018441 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 锡价格波动率（日度） | 最新收盘价 | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率 | 当前波动率历史百分位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 267270 | 245000-263000 | 19.07% | 47.0% | | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例 | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 | 产成品库存偏高，担心价格下跌 | 多 | 做空沪锡主力期货合约 | 沪锡主力期货合约 | 卖出 | 100% | 290000附近 | | | | | 卖出看涨期权 | SN2508C275000 | 卖出 | 25% | 波动率合适时 | | 原料管理 | 原料库存较低，担心价格上涨 | 空 | 做多沪锡主力期货合约 ...

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming release of the US PCE inflation data is expected to significantly impact market dynamics, particularly affecting the dollar and gold prices [2][3]. Economic Indicators - The US PCE price index for May is anticipated to rise by 2.3% year-on-year, up from 2.1% in April, while the core PCE is expected to increase by 2.6%, compared to 2.5% in April [2][3]. - Analysts suggest that if the PCE data, especially the core index, falls short of expectations, it could weaken the dollar and boost other major non-USD currencies [2][3]. Gold Market Analysis - The gold market is currently influenced by a complex macroeconomic environment, with ongoing geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties driving demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [4][5]. - Factors supporting potential gold price increases include sustained demand for safe-haven assets due to geopolitical issues, expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and ongoing high levels of US debt and deficits [4][5]. - The gold ETF fund (159937) offers a low-cost investment option that closely tracks domestic gold prices, supporting T+0 trading and providing a long-term hedge against economic downturns [5]. Market Sentiment - Recent economic data from the US indicates weakening consumer confidence and spending, which may put short-term pressure on the economy, although the Federal Reserve remains cautious regarding inflation uncertainties [5]. - Despite a generally weak dollar index trend, the Fed's maintenance of high interest rates has temporarily mitigated the dollar's decline, while gold remains supported by increasing international trade risks [5].

Group 1 - The total demand for rebar steel this week is 2.1991 million tons, slightly up from 2.1919 million tons last week, but lower than the same period in previous years [1] - The total inventory of rebar in major cities across the country is recorded at 3.634 million tons, a decrease of 53,500 tons or 1.45% from the previous week; over the past month, the total inventory has decreased by 311,900 tons, a reduction of 7.90% [1] - Recent price adjustments for rebar in Yunnan steel mills show significant increases in price margins across various specifications, indicating a shift in pricing strategy [1] Group 2 - The current market conditions for steel show an increase in supply and a decrease in demand, leading to a seasonal inventory build-up; short-term price fluctuations are expected [2] - The core issue in the market is the balance between iron water resilience and the accumulation of finished product inventory alongside reduced demand expectations [2] - Steel mills are experiencing profit compression, leading to a decrease in production rates; rebar demand is significantly lower than the same period last year, indicating a weak market [3] Group 3 - The production of major steel products is seasonally declining, with a noted decrease in electric furnace operating rates [3] - Recent macroeconomic information has been reflected in the market, shifting trading logic back to fundamental drivers, suggesting a potential recovery in undervalued steel prices [3] - Traders are advised to consider short positions during rebounds, while monitoring negative feedback expectations in the market [3]

Price Performance - London Gold's latest price is 3318.25 with no change [2] - London Silver's latest price is 35.77 with no change [2] - London Platinum's latest price is 1304.00 with no change [2] - London Palladium's latest price is 1049.00, down 22.00 [2] - WTI Crude's latest price is 64.92 with no change [2] - LME Copper's latest price is 9761.00, up 35.50 [2] - The latest Dollar Index is 97.70 with no change [2] - The latest Euro to US Dollar exchange rate is 1.17 with no change [2] - The latest British Pound to US Dollar exchange rate is 1.37 with no change [2] - The latest US Dollar to Japanese Yen exchange rate is 145.27 with no change [2] - The latest US 10 - year TIPS is 2.01 with no change [2] Trading Data - COMEX Silver's latest inventory is 15561.77 with no change [3] - SHFE Silver's latest inventory is 1270.83, down 5.97 [3] - Gold ETF's latest holding is 953.39 with no change [3] - Silver ETF's latest holding is 14866.19, down 50.88 [3] - SGE Silver's latest inventory is 1378.88 with no change [3] - SGE Gold's latest deferred fee payment direction is 1 with no change [3] - SGE Silver's latest deferred fee payment direction is 1 with no change [3] Data Source - The data in the report is sourced from Bloomberg, Yong'an Yuandian Information, and Wind [10]

南华贵金属日报: 银强金震 关注晚间美PCE 夏莹莹（投资咨询证号：Z0016569） 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年6月27日 【行情回顾】 周四贵金属市场银强金震，比特币维持震荡，美指跌破98，原油震荡，美股强势亦抑制贵金属避险需求， 铜价异常则带动白银偏强走势。最终COMEX黄金2508合约收报3341.6美元/盎司，-0.04%；美白银2509合 约收报于36.885美元/盎司，+1.22%。 SHFE黄金2508主力合约收报775.28元/克，+0.69%；SHFE白银 2508合约收8796元/千克，+1.7%。数据方面则强化美联储年内降息2次预期，美国25Q1GDP终值下修 至-0.5%，个人消费创疫情以来最弱表现；美国上周初请失业金人数虽低于预期，但续请失业金人数跃升至 2021年11月以来最高；美国5月耐用品订单环比初值16.4%，创2014年7月以来最大增幅。 【降息预期与基金持仓】 据CME"美联储观察"数据显示，美联储7月维持利率不变的概率为79.3%，降息25个基点的概率为 20.7%；美联储9月维持利率不变的概率为6%，累计降息25个基点的概率为74. ...

股指日报 股指期货日报 2025年6月26日 王梦颖（Z0015429）、廖臣悦 (F03120676) 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 小幅缩量调整，等待新的驱动出现 市场回顾 今日股指震荡偏弱，以沪深300指数为例，收盘下跌0.35%。从资金面来看，两市成交额回落195.89亿元。期 指均缩量下跌。 重要资讯 1. 国家发改委：将于今年7月份下达今年第三批消费品以旧换新资金，同时，将协调有关方面，坚持更加注重 持续性和均衡性原则，分领域制定落实到每个月、每一周的国补资金使用计划，保障消费品以旧换新政策全 年有序实施。 核心观点 今日股指小幅缩量回调，调整幅度不大，从盘面指标来看，市场情绪没有明显变化，因此我们认为今日股指 偏弱运行是基于连续多日放量上涨的阶段性调整。由于目前经济基本面仍处于弱复苏状态，信贷、通胀等数 据表现疲软，托底政策预期有所升温，对股指形成支撑。不过短期政策面预计难以出现新的增量信号，需要 等待7月政治局会议的政策指引。当前操作建议多头可持仓观望。 策略推荐 多头持仓观望 股指日报期指市场观察 | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | ...

国债期货日报 2025年6月26日 行情企稳，继续观望 盘面点评： 国债期货早盘小幅高开后震荡下行，盘中翻绿，午后低位窄幅震荡，尾盘回升跌幅有所收窄。公开市场方 面，到期逆回购2035亿，央行新做5093亿，当日净投放3058亿，市场情绪得到明显呵护。 日内消息： 1.商务部：中国一贯高度重视维护全球产供链的稳定与安全，依法依规不断加快对稀土相关出口许可申请的 审查，已经依法批准一定数量的合规申请，并将持续加强合规申请的审批工作。中方愿就此进一步加强与相 关国家的出口管制沟通对话，积极促进便利合规贸易 。 行情研判： 当前债市（特别是长端）跟A股跷跷板效应依旧明显，早盘A股震荡上行期间T从日内高点回落。但总体来看A 股表现较昨日明显降温，在没有基本面利好驱动，单纯靠地缘缓和以及稳定币概念支撑的行情，其持续性也 有待观望。而债市在本轮A股大涨中其实本来表现得就比较有韧性，跌幅并不算大，A股情绪降温的同时，长 端合约价格也有企稳迹象。 | 数据一览 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ...

智通财经6月26日电，南华期货(603093.SH)公告称，公司股票连续三个交易日内收盘价格涨幅偏离值累 计达到20%，属于股票交易异常波动情形。经自查，公司目前日常经营活动正常，主营业务未发生变 化，无影响股价的重大经营事项。此外，公司不存在应披露而未披露的重大信息，包括重大资产重组、 发行股份、上市公司收购等事项。公司提醒投资者注意二级市场交易风险，理性决策，审慎投资。 南华期货：生产经营正常 无重大未披露事项 ...