1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coil are expected to fluctuate repeatedly; silicon iron and manganese silicon will have wide - range oscillations due to commodity sentiment resonance; coke has completed the first round of price increase and will oscillate at a high level; coking coal will experience high - level oscillations due to event - related fermentation; thermal coal is in a weak supply - demand balance, and coal prices will have narrow - range fluctuations before the holiday [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Data**: For rebar futures RB2605, the closing price was 3,128 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 15 yuan/ton and a decline rate of 0.48%. The trading volume was 1,218,321 lots, and the position decreased by 51,270 lots. For hot - rolled coil futures HC2605, the closing price was 3,288 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 10 yuan/ton and a decline rate of 0.30%. The trading volume was 523,900 lots, and the position decreased by 17,466 lots. In terms of spot prices, rebar and hot - rolled coil prices in different regions showed varying degrees of increase and decrease. The basis of RB2605 increased by 19 yuan/ton, and the basis of HC2605 increased by 20 yuan/ton [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On January 29, steel production increased, inventory of rebar increased while that of hot - rolled coil decreased, and apparent demand of rebar decreased while that of hot - rolled coil increased. In December, the production of medium - thick plate mills of key enterprises increased year - on - year, while that of hot - and cold - rolling mills decreased. In mid - January 2026, the daily output of key iron and steel enterprises' crude steel decreased, while that of pig iron and steel products increased. The steel inventory of key enterprises and the social inventory of 5 major steel products in 21 cities showed different changes. BHP Billiton's iron ore production reached a record high, and it accepted partial price cuts. An explosion occurred at Baotou Steel's plate plant. In December 2025, China's steel imports increased in quantity and price. The government implemented export license management for some steel products [4][6][7]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both rebar and hot - rolled coil have a trend intensity of 0 [7]. Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon - **Fundamental Data**: For silicon iron 2603, the closing price was 5660 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 76 yuan/ton; for silicon iron 2605, the closing price was 5646 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 58 yuan/ton. For manganese silicon 2603, the closing price was 5842 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 54 yuan/ton; for manganese silicon 2605, the closing price was 5872 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 54 yuan/ton. The price of silicon iron FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia was 5330 yuan/ton, and the price of manganese silicon FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia increased by 30 yuan/ton to 5700 yuan/ton [9]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Two departments planned to increase the proportion of fixed - cost recovery of coal - fired power units through capacity - based electricity prices. The prices and production of silicon iron, manganese silicon, and manganese ore in different regions and enterprises changed. The average monthly operating rate and output of silicon iron in January decreased. Some steel mills issued招标 announcements and determined procurement prices for silicon iron and manganese silicon. As of January 30, the manganese ore inventory increased [9][10][11][12]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both silicon iron and manganese silicon have a trend intensity of 0 [13]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: For coking coal futures JM2605, the closing price was 1155.5 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 9.5 yuan/ton and a decline rate of 0.8%. For coke futures J2605, the closing price was 1721.5 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 1.5 yuan/ton and a decline rate of 0.1%. The spot prices of coking coal and coke in different regions showed different changes, and the basis and spread also changed [16]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On January 30, the CCI metallurgical coal index of China Coal Resource Network was released. The online auction of coking coal had a lower non - successful bid rate and an average premium of 31.25 yuan/ton. The first - round price increase of coke was implemented, and the downstream purchasing sentiment was not high [16]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both coke and coking coal have a trend intensity of 0 [19]. Thermal Coal - **Fundamental Data**: The prices of thermal coal in different producing areas, ports, and overseas regions, as well as the February long - term agreement prices, showed different changes compared with the previous period and the same period last year [20]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In January, the demand for thermal coal was in the peak season, and the price fluctuated. The provincial energy work conferences in various places set the direction for 2026 energy work. The Indonesian Coal Mining Association said that the government's production quota cuts might lead to mine closures [21].

Banking Sector - The banking sector is expected to see three major catalysts in 2026: 1) Interest margins are likely to stabilize as new loan rates reach a low point, and deposit repricing effects will continue to improve banks' funding costs [6][7] 2) Risks related to real estate exposure are expected to have peaked, with significant progress in mitigating financial risks in the real estate sector [6] 3) Retail business may show marginal improvement as credit risks ease and wealth management activities are expected to activate [6][7] - Investment strategies for 2026 suggest focusing on four main lines: 1) Increase allocation to high-quality city commercial banks with strong earnings elasticity, recommending Hangzhou Bank and paying attention to Ningbo Bank, Nanjing Bank, Chongqing Bank, Qingdao Bank, and Xiamen Bank [5][7] 2) Allocate to high-dividend large banks, with a focus on Bank of China Hong Kong (H), CITIC Bank (H), China Construction Bank (H), and China Merchants Bank [5][7] 3) Pay attention to Shanghai Bank and Industrial Bank due to expected strong redemption of convertible bonds [5][7] 4) Consider banks with significant valuation discounts and potential for performance recovery, such as Minsheng Bank and Ping An Bank [5][7] Mechanical Equipment - The CDU liquid cooling pump is expected to benefit from the accelerated construction of AI data centers, as it plays a crucial role in regulating coolant flow and pressure, constituting 30%-40% of the liquid cooling system's value [9][10] - The market size for CDU liquid pumps is projected to reach between $1.139 billion and $1.544 billion in 2026, driven by the increasing demand for liquid cooling solutions as chip power exceeds the limits of air cooling [9][11] - The cooling source side of the liquid cooling system is also expected to benefit from the rapid development of AI data centers, with the global market for cooling water units projected to grow from approximately 105.21 billion yuan in 2024 to nearly 167.33 billion yuan by 2031 [10] Commercial Aerospace - SpaceX's application for an orbital data center system aims to reduce energy consumption from ground data centers, which may create significant incremental opportunities for rocket launch service providers and satellite manufacturers [22][24] - The acceleration of low Earth orbit satellite constellations is expected to drive domestic leading rocket launch service providers to actively expand their satellite constellation-related businesses, creating new growth opportunities in upstream supply chain segments [22][24] - The construction of orbital data centers is anticipated to significantly reduce energy consumption, benefiting both rocket launch service providers and satellite manufacturers [24] Fixed Income - The manufacturing PMI for January showed a significant seasonal decline, with the index at 49.3%, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector [14][15] - The service sector PMI slightly decreased, while the construction sector's activity index fell below 40%, indicating a need for further economic stabilization measures [19] - The credit market is expected to face structural opportunities despite a less favorable recovery outlook in February, with a focus on medium to high-rated city investment bonds [42][47] Airline Industry - Air China is projected to report a net loss of approximately 1.3 billion to 1.9 billion yuan for 2025, with Q4 losses expected to be between 3.17 billion and 3.77 billion yuan, indicating an increase in losses compared to the previous year [27][28] - Despite the projected losses, operational data for 2025 shows steady improvement, with available seat kilometers (ASK) and revenue passenger kilometers (RPK) increasing by 3.24% and 5.85% respectively [27][28] - The long-term demand for civil aviation in China is viewed positively, supported by the company's strong route network [28] Steel Industry - Fangda Special Steel is expected to see a significant increase in net profit for 2025, projected between 835 million and 998 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 236.90% to 302.67% [31][32] - The growth is attributed to increased production and sales volumes, along with a decline in raw material costs, which have helped restore steel margins [31][32] - The company is focusing on refined management and cost reduction strategies, alongside potential asset injections from its parent group [32] Home Appliances - The home appliance industry is experiencing a decline in production and sales, particularly in the air conditioning and refrigerator segments, with significant year-on-year decreases reported [34] - The introduction of innovative products like Clawbot is expected to reshape the AI assistant market, enhancing consumer engagement and operational efficiency [35] - Companies like Ecovacs and Ninebot are projected to see substantial profit growth in 2025, driven by new product launches and increased market penetration [36]

交易咨询资格号： 证监许可[2012]112 晨会纪要 2026 年 2 月 2 日 联系人：王竣冬 期货从业资格：F3024685 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 研究咨询电话： 0531-81678626 客服电话： 400-618-6767 公司网址： www.ztqh.com [Table_QuotePic] 中泰微投研小程序 | 2026/2/2 | | 基于基本面研判 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 趋势空头 | 農荡偏空 | 農筋 | 農荡偏多 | 趋势多头 | | | 原油 | 多晶硅 | 沥青 | 合成橡胶 | | | 尿素 | 橡胶 | 燃油 | | | | 鸡蛋 | 工业硅 | 烧碱 | | | | 红枣 | 纸浆 | 二债 | | | | 中证1000指数期货 | 原木 | 十债 | | | | 生猪 | 胶版印刷纸 | 三十债 | | | | 中证500股指期货 | 沪深300股指期货 | 五债 | | | | 甲醇 | 上证50股指期货 | 苹果 | | | | 塑料 | 白糖 | 硅铁 | | | | 液化石油气 | 焦炭 | ...

Market Overview - The three major indices opened mixed, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.93% and the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.54%, while the ChiNext Index opened up 0.65% [1] - Key sectors showing gains include electric grid equipment, photovoltaic, and airports, while sectors such as non-ferrous metals and oil & gas experienced declines [1] Index Performance - Shanghai Composite Index: 4079.71, down 0.93%, with 579 gainers and 1486 losers, trading volume of 101.3 million shares worth 13.951 billion [2] - Shenzhen Component Index: 14128.87, down 0.54%, with 635 gainers and 2028 losers, trading volume of 124.5 million shares worth 19.692 billion [2] - ChiNext Index: 3368.14, up 0.65%, with 345 gainers and 937 losers, trading volume of 294.7 million shares worth 8.748 billion [2] Institutional Insights - CITIC Securities maintains a long-term positive outlook on the "technology + resource products" dual main line, noting that the market sentiment has cooled due to ETF sell-offs and international gold and silver price fluctuations, but expects stabilization before the Spring Festival [3] - Huatai Securities emphasizes that the core drivers for the spring market have not fundamentally changed, suggesting a focus on high-performing and low-position sectors, including electric power equipment and semiconductor devices [4] - China Galaxy Securities anticipates continued sector rotation leading up to the Spring Festival, highlighting strong fundamental support for sectors like non-bank financials and automotive, while also noting the potential for structural opportunities within the market [5]

Industrial Sector - Industrial production shows mixed recovery, with steel and building materials output increasing while cement and glass production rates are stabilizing[2] - The steel output for major varieties has increased, while apparent demand for steel building materials has decreased[7] - The operating rate for cement clinker has improved, while the operating rate for flat glass has also seen a seasonal recovery[11][13] Real Estate - New home sales in 30 major cities have stabilized, with a year-on-year growth rate of 109.1% due to a low base last year[2] - The sales area of new homes in January has decreased by 23.8% year-on-year, but improved by 2.8 percentage points compared to the previous month[2] - The second-hand housing listing price index has decreased by 0.45%, with the decline narrowing by 0.48 percentage points from the previous value[25] Domestic Demand - Retail sales of passenger cars from January 1 to 18 have dropped by 28% year-on-year, with a slight expected increase of 0.3% for the entire month due to the Spring Festival timing[28] - Major home appliance retail sales have decreased by 27.9% year-on-year, but improved by 3.3 percentage points compared to the previous value[30] - The volume of postal express collection has increased by 3.7% year-on-year, showing a recovery trend[33] External Demand - Port cargo throughput has increased by 4.3% year-on-year, with container throughput rising by 7.7%[35] - The export container freight rate index has decreased by 2.7% this week, indicating a decline in shipping costs[35] - The manufacturing PMI for the Eurozone has improved to 49.4%, while the US manufacturing PMI has decreased to 51.8%[35] Price Trends - The Nanhua Industrial Price Index has risen by 1.4%, while the black raw materials index has fallen by 0.2% and the non-ferrous metals index has decreased by 0.9%[36] - The agricultural product wholesale price index has increased by 0.2% week-on-week, indicating slight inflation in food prices[41]

价 格 和 利 润 | | | | 钢材早报 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 研究中心黑色团队 2026/02/02 | | | 现 货 价 格 | | | | | | | | 日期 | 北京螺纹 | 上海螺纹 | 成都螺纹 | 西安螺纹 | 广州螺纹 | 武汉螺纹 | | 2026/01/26 | 3160 | 3290 | 3350 | 3240 | 3420 | 3340 | | 2026/01/27 | 3160 | 3240 | 3310 | 3240 | 3420 | 3320 | | 2026/01/28 | 3160 | 3230 | 3310 | 3240 | 3410 | 3320 | | 2026/01/29 | 3160 | 3280 | 3340 | 3240 | 3410 | 3350 | | 2026/01/30 | 3160 | 3240 | 3340 | 3240 | 3450 | 3310 | | 变化 | 0 | -40 | 0 | 0 | 40 | -40 | | 日期 | ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is Neutral, maintained [6] Core Insights - The steel industry accounts for approximately 15% of the national carbon emissions, making it the highest carbon-emitting manufacturing sector. The implementation of low-carbon steelmaking is a significant challenge for Chinese steel companies [2][4] - The "carbon peak" target was first proposed in 2020, evolving into a policy of stabilizing crude steel production. The current deepening of carbon neutrality policies may accelerate the elimination of outdated production capacity in the steel industry [2][4] - As the Spring Festival approaches, demand and production are slowing down, leading to a low inventory and low expectation state in the steel market. The overall market is characterized by low production, low inventory, and low expectations, awaiting macro or industrial catalysts [4] Summary by Sections Section 1: Market Dynamics - Demand continues to weaken with a year-on-year decrease of 2.02% and a month-on-month decrease of 0.67% in apparent consumption of major steel products [4] - Steel production has slightly increased, with a year-on-year rise of 2.19% and a month-on-month rise of 0.48% in total steel output [4] - Total steel inventory has increased by 1.57% month-on-month and 13.05% year-on-year [4] Section 2: Policy and Regulatory Environment - The carbon intensity reduction target has been a binding indicator since the 12th Five-Year Plan, with a projected reduction of about 7.8% by the end of 2024, which is below expectations [4] - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment has released a carbon emission trading market allocation plan for the steel, cement, and aluminum industries, marking a significant step towards operationalizing carbon control policies [4] Section 3: Investment Opportunities - Short-term focus on energy-saving and carbon-reduction modifications in existing blast furnace-converter processes is a practical choice for steel companies [5] - Long-term investment opportunities may arise in electric arc furnace steelmaking and hydrogen metallurgy as the dual carbon policy deepens [5]

| 乖 亦安期货 | | --- | 废钢早报 研究中心黑色团队 2026/02/02 | 日期 | 华东 | 华北 | 中部 | 华南 | 东北 | 西南 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026/01/26 | 2189 | 2271 | 2057 | 2250 | 2218 | 2109 | | 2026/01/27 | 2189 | 2271 | 2061 | 2246 | 2218 | 2109 | | 2026/01/28 | 2191 | 2271 | 2061 | 2245 | 2218 | 2107 | | 2026/01/29 | 2191 | 2270 | 2061 | 2244 | 2218 | 2108 | | 2026/01/30 | 2191 | 2271 | 2061 | 2244 | 2218 | 2108 | | 环比 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯，我们力求分析及建议内 容的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing a cooling sentiment due to a wave of ETF sell-offs and significant fluctuations in international gold and silver prices, but the overall A-share index is expected to stabilize before the Spring Festival and enter a new upward trend afterward [1][3]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Trends - The recent volatility in international precious metal prices is attributed to the breaking of dovish expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's chair nomination, profit-taking, and the speculative nature of silver amplifying price swings [2]. - A significant sell-off in broad-based ETFs has led to liquidity pressure and a noticeable decline in sentiment indices, indicating a potential short-term market correction [3][4]. - Despite the short-term pressure, the overall A-share index is anticipated to have limited adjustment space and is expected to stabilize before the Spring Festival, with a new upward trend likely to follow [3]. Group 2: Investment Focus and Sector Rotation - The company maintains a long-term positive outlook on the "technology + resource products" dual mainline strategy, with short-term market style rotation accelerating [1][4]. - Key sectors to focus on include power equipment (energy storage, ultra-high voltage, photovoltaics, solid-state batteries), non-bank financials, banks, AI (optical communication, storage), coal power, home appliances, automobiles, and steel [1][4]. - The upcoming Spring season is expected to benefit from ample capital inflow and favorable policies, supporting the growth of technology sectors and potentially leading to a rebound in previously underperforming financial and midstream manufacturing sectors [4].

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The latest data from Steel Silver E-commerce indicates a significant increase in steel inventory across 38 cities in China, with a total inventory of 7.3978 million tons as of February 2, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 290,600 tons, or 4.09% [1]. Inventory Breakdown - The total inventory of construction steel reached 3.3745 million tons, which is an increase of 213,700 tons, or 6.76% compared to the previous week, covering 30 cities and 79 warehouses [1]. - Hot-rolled coil inventory totaled 2.1083 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 56,300 tons, or 2.74%, across 15 cities and 47 warehouses [1]. - Medium and heavy plate inventory stood at 730,000 tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 23,200 tons, or 3.28%, from 9 cities and 14 warehouses [1]. - Cold-rolled and coated inventory decreased to 1.1850 million tons, with a slight reduction of 2,600 tons, or 0.22%, covering 5 cities and 14 warehouses [1].