1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper market will start an upward trend in advance in 2024, and the price will show a large - range shock in 2025, first testing the effectiveness of the low - level support [15][11] - The US and Chinese economies are the dominant factors in price fluctuations of non - ferrous metals [3][14][59] - Copper mine supply determines that the growth of refined copper production will remain at a high level [3][14][59] - Aluminum, alumina, and zinc are the main short - selling varieties in 2025 [3][14][59] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Copper Price Long - term Trend and 2025 Price Range - The low - to - high multiple of copper price is 2.5 times, and the determining factors are cost and the US dollar index [5][7][9] - In 2025, the copper price will have a large - range shock and first test the effectiveness of the low - level support. The price ranges mentioned are 8100 - 8700, and specific prices like 8900, 7800, 7500 are also given [11][16][12] - In 2024, the copper market started to rise in advance. From March to May, due to factors such as supply shortage, optimistic economic expectations, geopolitical conflicts, and supply risks, the copper price rose from 8000 to 11000 US dollars. After May 20, the price dropped due to increased production and inventory in China and the US economy not having a soft landing. There was a rebound from August to September because of policies and interest rate cuts [15][17][20] 3.2 The US and Chinese Economies as Price Fluctuation Dominant Factors US Economy - The US economic data affects the copper price. For example, during the 1994 - 1996 soft - landing period, the Federal Reserve's interest rate adjustment policies influenced the economic situation. Trump's policies included internal tax cuts and external tariff increases, and if he is re - elected, potential policies such as further tax cuts, tariff increases, and immigration policies may also impact the economy [23][27][29] - The predicted real GDP growth rates for the US in 2023, 2024, and 2025 are 2.9%, 2.8%, and 2.2% respectively [56] Chinese Economy - The Chinese government's debt - replacement policy has significantly reduced the local debt scale and saved about 60 billion yuan in interest expenses over five years. It has also helped local areas enhance development momentum, promote economic growth, and improve the financial asset quality [48] - The Central Politburo Meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference require maintaining economic stability, employment, and price stability in 2025. Fiscal policies will be more active, and monetary policies will be moderately loose [50][51] - The predicted real GDP growth rates for China in 2023, 2024, and 2025 are 5.2%, 4.8%, and 4.5% respectively [56] 3.3 Copper Mine Supply Determines High - level Growth of Refined Copper Production Global Copper Mine Supply - The global copper mine supply growth rate has been adjusted upwards. The predicted growth rate in 2024 is 1.71% (380,000 tons in increment), higher than the May expectation, and 3.55% in 2025. The over - expected production in 2024 is due to the smooth production of some mines and lower - than - expected interference [61][62][63] - Many mines have production changes from 2023 - 2025, with a total planned increment of 3.3846 million tons, and the actual increment after considering interference is 1.6579 million tons [64] - There are various interference factors in copper mines, such as contract issues, grade decline, and production suspension, with a total interference volume of 818,000 tons in 2024 [65] Copper Smelting - The growth of smelting capacity is higher than that of copper mine capacity. From 2024 - 2026, new smelting capacity is about 5 million tons, while copper mine production only increases by 1.66 million tons, resulting in a large copper mine gap [66][67][68] - In 2024, the global refined copper production is 26.196 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 2.79%, and it is expected to increase by 3.44% in 2025. In China, the refined copper production in 2024 is 12.05 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 5.33%, and it is expected to increase by 4.32% in 2025 [71] - The production of different smelters in China and overseas will change in 2025, with an overall increase in global refined copper production [72][73] Copper Consumption - In 2023, global refined copper consumption increased by 3.9% to 25.3 million tons. It is expected to increase by 3% to 26.06 million tons in 2024 and by 3.08% in 2025. The growth in 2023 was mainly contributed by the new energy sector [74][75][76] - The consumption of copper in the new energy sector (solar and wind power, new energy vehicles) is an important factor. Although the growth rate of new energy vehicle sales and the copper consumption per unit may decline, the overall consumption is still increasing [78][84][86] 3.4 Aluminum, Alumina, and Zinc as Main Short - selling Varieties in 2025 Aluminum - The dominant factors of aluminum price are supply - demand balance and cost. The supply - demand balance of aluminum is determined by the economy, and alumina price is one of the factors causing aluminum price fluctuations [89][90] - With the growth of bauxite supply in Guinea, the bauxite supply - demand will turn to surplus again. It is expected that the bauxite production in Guinea will increase by about 2.387 million tons in 2025 compared with 2024 [92][95] - The export profit of alumina shows the leading role of overseas quotes. The decline of the Australian FOB price of alumina will drag down the domestic spot price [96][98] - It is expected that the alumina production will increase by 3.6 million tons to 89.6 million tons in 2025, with an increase of about 4.2%. The bauxite supply - demand balance in 2025 is affected by the import volume, and the price may decline in the second half of the year [99][101] Zinc - It is expected that the idealized increment of global zinc concentrate in 2025 is about 989,700 tons, but considering various factors, the actual increment is estimated to be between 400,000 - 600,000 tons [106][107] - It is predicted that the global refined zinc production will increase by 3.3% to 14.1 million tons in 2025 [111] - In China, the supply - demand balance of refined zinc will turn from a deficit in 2024 to a surplus in 2025. Globally, the supply - demand balance of refined zinc will also turn from a deficit in 2024 to a surplus in 2025 [113][115]

Group 1: Company Overview - North Copper Industry Co., Ltd. specializes in the mining, selection, smelting, and processing of copper metal, covering the entire copper business value chain [2] - Main products include cathode copper, gold ingots, silver ingots, copper alloy strips, and rolled copper foil, with a production capacity of 320,000 tons/year for cathode copper and 1.22 million tons/year for sulfuric acid [2] Group 2: Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of CNY 24.107 billion and a net profit of CNY 613 million [3] - For Q1 2025, revenue was CNY 6.838 billion with a net profit of CNY 371 million [3] Group 3: Debt and Cash Flow Management - As of March 31, 2025, the company's debt-to-asset ratio was 64.88%, with CNY 965.5 million raised in 2024 to support new projects [4] - Current cash flow situation is normal, supporting operational needs [4] Group 4: Competitive Advantages - Significant copper ore reserves of 213 million tons, with ongoing exploration to extend service life [5] - Advanced mining technology leading to high production efficiency and low costs [5] - Integrated industry chain from exploration to processing, enhancing operational risk management [5] Group 5: Operational Risks - Price volatility of products and raw materials, particularly cathode copper, directly impacts profit levels [6] - Safety risks associated with mining operations, including potential natural disasters and operational accidents [6] Group 6: Expansion and Development Plans - No current plans for expanding smelting capacity [6] - Focus on strengthening the upstream supply chain and enhancing recycling of copper resources [8] - Plans to establish large-scale waste copper recycling bases and promote integrated development of recycling and processing [8] Group 7: Gold Production and Market Impact - The company plans to produce 6 tons of gold ingots in 2025, with gold prices influenced by supply-demand dynamics and economic factors [8] Group 8: High-Performance Copper Foil Project - The high-performance rolled copper foil project has completed its first phase, with a production capacity of 25,000 tons/year for copper alloy strips and 5,000 tons/year for rolled copper foil [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: On hold - Options: short put @ 77,000 yuan/ton 2. Core Viewpoints - The TC negotiation remains unresolved, and the overall processing fee is still low. Scrap copper enterprises expect future supply to tighten due to the reverse invoicing policy, but the demand outlook is not optimistic. With a supply - demand imbalance and changeable macro - factors, the precious metal attribute of copper may be highlighted. It is recommended to buy on dips for hedging, with the buying range for the Cu2507 contract at 77,400 - 78,000 yuan/ton [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On June 24, 2025, the main Shanghai copper contract opened at 78,340 yuan/ton and closed at 78,640 yuan/ton, up 0.45% from the previous trading day's close. The night - session contract opened at 78,410 yuan/ton and closed at 78,470 yuan/ton, up 0.04% from the afternoon close [1]. Spot Situation - On the previous day, the procurement and sales sentiment improved. Due to inventory clearance by holders at low prices, the premium continued to decline, and some low - price goods were sold at a discount. The expected premium may continue to fall today [2]. Important Information Summary - **Macro and Geopolitical**: The Fed has internal differences on interest - rate cuts. Geopolitically, Trump made statements about the Israel - Iran cease - fire and the US - Iran situation. China conducted 300 billion yuan of 1 - year MLF operations on June 25 [3]. - **Mine End**: AIC Mines signed a $40 million prepayment loan and purchase agreement with Trafigura. BHP signed four long - term contracts worth about A$1.5 billion with Aurizon [4]. - **Smelting and Import**: Ningbo Jin Tian Copper imported over 5,000 tons of copper from the DRC this year, with expected increased imports in the second half. China's May scrap copper imports decreased, and Thailand became the largest supplier [5]. - **Consumption**: Jiangxi Tongying New Materials plans to invest 20 million yuan in a 10,000 - ton copper deep - processing project [6]. - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: LME warehouse receipts decreased by 3,325 tons to 94,675 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 3,103 tons to 22,425 tons, and the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory decreased by 16,300 tons to 129,600 tons [7]. Strategy - **Copper**: Cautiously bullish, recommend buying on dips for hedging in the range of 77,400 - 78,000 yuan/ton for the Cu2507 contract [8]. - **Arbitrage**: On hold - **Options**: short put @ 77,000 yuan/ton

【冠通研究】 地缘冲突缓解，风险偏好回升 制作日期：2025 年 6 月 24 日 【策略分析】 今日沪铜低开高走日内偏强震荡。今日特朗普宣布伊朗以色列停火，地缘冲突缓 和，全球经济不确定性转弱，投资者风险偏好增加，但中东局势变化较快，市场后续涨 跌难料。基本面来看，供给端，截至 2025 年 6 月 20 日，现货粗炼费为-43.70 美元/干 吨，现货精炼费为-4.36 美分/磅。目前铜冶炼端偏紧预期暂时只反映在数据上，铜供应 量依然在走强；库存端全球铜库存去化，其中套利驱使下，伦铜大幅去化，美铜依然在 快速累库，国内目前铜去化幅度较缓，主要系逢低拿货为主。需求端，截至 2025 年 4 月，电解铜表观消费 128.27 万吨，相比上月涨跌-8.97 万吨，涨跌幅-6.54%。全球经济 不确定性的影响下，终端市场相对疲软，下游也多以逢低拿货及刚需补货为主，6 月系 消费淡季阶段，终端家电排产减少，高温下房地产也多拖累，整体需求反馈不佳，只有 逢低采购的支撑存在。整体来说，停火协议使投资者风险偏好增加，沪铜供应端维持偏 紧预期，社会库存增加，而终端消费韧性不足抑制现货升水的走强，目前沪铜价格波动 幅度较小， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [7] - Arbitrage: On hold - Options: short put @ 77,000 yuan/ton Core Viewpoints - The TC negotiation remains unresolved, and the overall processing fee is still low. The scrap copper enterprises expect future supply to be tight due to the reverse invoicing policy. The demand outlook is not optimistic, resulting in a situation of weak supply and demand. However, macro factors are variable, which may highlight the precious metal attribute of copper. Therefore, it is recommended to buy on dips for hedging, with the buying range for the Cu2507 contract between 77,400 yuan/ton and 78,000 yuan/ton [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Futures Quotes**: On June 23, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 78,480 yuan/ton and closed at 78,290 yuan/ton, a 0.38% decrease from the previous trading day's close. The night - session main contract opened at 78,340 yuan/ton and closed at 78,450 yuan/ton, a 0.15% increase from the afternoon close [1]. - **Spot Situation**: The spot trading sentiment of Shanghai copper was weak. The premium of mainstream flat - water copper dropped to 60 - 80 yuan/ton, and that of good copper to 100 yuan/ton. Non - registered copper was at a discount of 70 - 40 yuan/ton. Due to the pressure of shipping and collecting payments, the spot premium is expected to decline further [2]. - **Important Information Summary** - **Macro and Geopolitical**: Trump announced that Israel and Iran reached a cease - fire agreement. Iran will start the cease - fire first, and Israel will follow 12 hours later. The war will end officially after 24 hours, leading to a significant drop in crude oil prices. In China, as of the end of May, the cumulative installed power generation capacity was 3.61 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 18.8% [3]. - **Mine End**: AIC Mines signed a $40 million prepayment loan and purchase agreement with Trafigura to fund the expansion of its Eloise copper processing plant. BHP signed four long - term contracts worth about A$1.5 billion with Aurizon to provide integrated logistics solutions for its copper business in South Australia, which is expected to replace about 13 million kilometers of truck transportation annually [4]. - **Smelting and Import**: Ningbo Jintian Copper imported over 5,000 tons of copper from the Democratic Republic of the Congo this year, and the import volume is expected to increase in the second half of the year. From January to May, the value of copper imports from Africa in Ningbo reached 9.02 billion yuan, an increase of 78.8%. In May, China's scrap copper imports were 185,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.55% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.53% [5]. - **Consumption**: The operating rate of domestic refined copper rod enterprises rose to 75.82%, a month - on - month increase of 2.6 percentage points but lower than expected. The operating rate of copper cable enterprises dropped to 73.26%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.04 percentage points [6]. - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: LME warehouse receipts decreased by 4,125 tons to 95,875 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 8,354 tons to 25,528 tons. On June 23, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 1.296 million tons, a decrease of 163,000 tons from the previous week [6]. Strategy - **Copper**: It is recommended to buy on dips for hedging, with the buying range for the Cu2507 contract between 77,400 yuan/ton and 78,000 yuan/ton [7]. - **Arbitrage**: On hold [7]. - **Options**: short put @ 77,000 yuan/ton [7].

Financial Assistance Overview - Yunnan Copper Industry Co., Ltd. has approved a financial assistance plan to its subsidiary, China Copper International Trade Group Co., Ltd., allowing it to provide an internal loan of 1 billion RMB or equivalent in USD to another subsidiary, Yunnan Copper Hong Kong Co., Ltd. [1] Financial Assistance Progress - A maximum loan agreement has been signed with a maximum borrowing amount of 1 billion RMB or equivalent in USD, with an actual drawdown of 65 million USD (approximately 466.91 million RMB) at a fixed annual interest rate of 5.02% [2][3] Cumulative Financial Assistance and Overdue Amounts - After this financial assistance, the total amount of financial assistance provided by the company reaches 466.91 million RMB, which accounts for a certain percentage of the company's most recent audited net assets, with no overdue amounts reported [3]

云南铜业（000878）公告，近日收到交易商协会下发的关于发行中期票据和短期融资券的《接受注册通 知书》。其中，中期票据注册金额为50亿元，注册额度自通知书落款之日起2年内有效；短期融资券注 册金额为50亿元，注册额度自通知书落款之日起2年内有效。公司在注册有效期内可分期发行中期票据 和短期融资券，并需事前向交易商协会备案。发行完成后，应通过交易商协会认可的途径披露发行结 果。公司将根据相关规定，择机发行，并积极推进后续相关工作，及时履行信息披露义务。 ...

投资咨询业务资格 证监发【2014】217号 美联储按兵不动，铜铝震荡整理 ——铜铝周报2025.06.23 作者： 刘培洋 联系方式：0371-58620083 电子邮箱：liupy_qh@ccnew.com 执业证书编号：F0290318 投资咨询编号：Z0011155 本期观点 | 品种 | 主要逻辑 | 策略建议 | 风险提示 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 1、宏观面：国内5月经济数据仍有韧性，美联储6月会议继续暂停降 | 沪铜2508合约 | | | | 息，关注中东局势和美国关税政策变化。 | 上方参考压力 | 1、国内外宏 | | | 2、基本面：从供应端来看，交易所仓单大量流出，俄罗斯低价货源 | 位80000元/吨 | 观政策及经 | | 铜 | 在市场大量销售，但市场承接能力有限。库存方面，截至6月5日周 | 一线，下方参 | 济数据变化； | | | 四，全国主流地区铜库存为14.6万吨，环比上升0.11万吨。 | 考支撑位 | 2、国外铜矿 | | | 3、整体逻辑：铜矿紧张预期和美国对铜征收关税预期继续支持铜价， | | | | | 但关税对经济冲击 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Last week, copper prices declined slightly due to the low - level rebound of the US dollar, rising risks of economic stagflation in the US, intensified geopolitical conflicts leading overseas capital to flee risk assets, and the Fed's hawkish remarks delaying the interest - rate cut, lacking upward macro - drivers. Fundamentally, major global mines' disruptions continued, non - US visible inventories dropped rapidly, the LME 0 - 3 spread hit a new high this year, and domestic social inventories were low, indicating a shortage of concentrate supply gradually spreading to refined copper supply [2]. - Overall, the low - level rebound of the US dollar pressured risk asset prices, the decline in US retail sales data and the sharp rise in crude oil prices increased the risk of US economic stagflation, and the Fed's hawkish stance dampened market risk appetite. Copper prices are hard to find upward momentum in the short term. Fundamentally, the shortage of global concentrates in the second half of the year may far exceed market expectations, with a significant drop in global visible inventories and continuous depletion of LME inventories. Although the supply side provides strong support, short - term macro factors suppress copper price increases. It is expected that LME copper will show a high - level decline, but the adjustment range may be relatively limited [3][11]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - From June 13th to June 20th, LME copper rose by $13.00 to $9660.50 per ton, a 0.13% increase; COMEX copper rose by 8.25 cents to 483.4 cents per pound, a 1.74% increase; SHFE copper fell by 20 yuan to 77990 yuan per ton, a 0.03% decrease; international copper fell by 30 yuan to 69170 yuan per ton, a 0.04% decrease; the Shanghai - LME ratio dropped to 8.07; the LME spot premium rose by $201.58 to $274.99 per ton, a 274.59% increase; the Shanghai spot premium rose by 85 yuan to 120 yuan per ton [4]. - In terms of inventory, as of June 20th, the total inventory of LME, COMEX, SHFE, and Shanghai bonded area decreased to 461,393 tons. LME inventory decreased by 15,275 tons to 99,200 tons, a 13.34% decrease; COMEX inventory increased by 5,151 short tons to 201,197 short tons, a 2.63% increase; SHFE inventory decreased by 1,129 tons to 100,796 tons, a 1.11% decrease; Shanghai bonded area inventory increased by 4,700 tons to 60,200 tons, an 8.47% increase [7]. Market Analysis and Outlook - Copper prices declined slightly last week. Overseas macro factors lacked upward drivers for copper prices, while the shortage of concentrate supply gradually spread to refined copper supply. Global visible inventories were low, supporting copper prices. The decline in the Shanghai - LME ratio was mainly due to the weak US dollar last week [8]. - The Fed maintained the federal funds rate at 4.25 - 4.5%, lowered the expected US economic growth rate from 1.7% to 1.4%. US retail sales in May decreased by 0.9% month - on - month, exceeding expectations. Three European central banks cut interest rates by 25 basis points. The People's Bank of China maintained the one - year and five - year LPR rates [9]. - This week, the spot TC remained at - 45 dollars per ton. Kamo'a significantly reduced its production guidance by 150,000 tons this year. In China, the electrolytic copper output in May was 1.139 million tons, a 12.9% year - on - year increase. However, domestic smelting capacity faced a bottleneck, and some small and medium - sized smelters might cut production. Overseas deliverable supplies flowed to North America, and the domestic tight - balance pattern was hard to break. In terms of demand, power grid investment project tenders were launched, the weekly operating rate of copper cable enterprises remained above 80%, and orders of refined copper rod enterprises were abundant. The drag on demand came from the expected sharp decline in photovoltaic installation in May, while emerging markets such as data centers, artificial intelligence, and new - energy vehicles brought strong growth expectations [10]. Industry News - In May 2025, China exported 114,000 tons of unwrought copper and copper products, a 23.6% year - on - year decrease; from January to May, the cumulative export was 595,000 tons, a 25.2% year - on - year increase. In May, China imported 430,000 tons of unwrought copper and copper products, a 16.6% year - on - year decrease; from January to May, the cumulative import was 2.17 million tons, a 6.7% year - on - year decrease. In May, China imported 2.4 million tons of copper ore concentrates, a 6.6% year - on - year increase; from January to May, the cumulative import was 12.41 million tons, a 7.4% year - on - year increase. From January to May, China's cumulative copper product output was 9.537 million tons, a 6.2% year - on - year increase [12]. - India's Adani copper smelter started processing ore last week. Its initial annual capacity is 500,000 tons, expected to expand to 1 million tons by 2028. It may take 18 months to reach full production, and it needs about 1.6 million tons of copper concentrates per year to operate at full capacity. This year, the gap between the smelter's required concentrates and actual supply may reach 1.2 million tons, the largest in at least a decade [13]. - Vale's Bacaba copper project in Brazil obtained a preliminary environmental permit. It is expected to produce about 50,000 tons of copper per year on average during an eight - year operation period, starting production in the first half of 2028. Vale plans to invest about $290 million in the project. After the news, Vale's New York - listed stock rose 3.4% to $9.77, with a market value of about $42 billion [14]. - Last week, the processing fee for 8mm T1 cable wire rods in East China rose to 400 - 650 yuan per ton, a 50 - 80 yuan per ton increase. The increase was due to the upward shift of the domestic copper premium center after the contract change and the recovery of terminal demand after the copper price decline. In the East China market, the transaction improved, but the overall delivery progress was not ideal due to poor downstream operation. In the South China market, the transaction changed little, and downstream cable enterprises mostly purchased recycled copper rods [15].

Group 1 - The core point of the announcement is that Yunnan Copper Co., Ltd. is progressing with a plan to issue shares to acquire a 40% stake in Liangshan Mining Co., Ltd. and raise supporting funds through share issuance to China Aluminum Corporation and China Copper Corporation [1][2] - The transaction is structured as a share issuance for asset acquisition and fundraising, and upon completion, Liangshan Mining will become a subsidiary of Yunnan Copper [1][2] - The transaction is not expected to constitute a major asset restructuring or lead to a change in the actual controller of the company [2] Group 2 - The company’s stock was suspended from trading on May 13, 2025, due to the planning of this transaction, and resumed trading on May 26, 2025, after the relevant announcements were made [2] - As of the date of the announcement, the auditing and evaluation of the target assets involved in the transaction have not been completed, and further board and shareholder meetings will be held to review related matters [3][4] - The company will adhere to relevant regulations and timely fulfill information disclosure obligations as the transaction progresses [3][4]