来源：熊园-国盛证券首席经济学家 国盛证券宏观首席分析师，张浩；宏观分析师，薛舒宁 2025年7月以来，我国PPI回升趋势较为明朗，预计2026年PPI同比降幅大概率继续收窄、且未来半年可能是修复最快的时期。过往看，PPI回升的不同阶 段，A股走势和领涨风格各异，债市也表现出不同的阶段性特征。本文通过复盘历史各轮PPI回升阶段的股债表现，以求挖掘2026年PPI回升过程中催生的 投资机会。 核心结论：2000年以来有5轮PPI回升，以史为鉴、全面复盘、用数据说话。 1、股市方面，过往5轮，A股多呈上行趋势、且阶段性特征明显： >第一阶段，PPI环比见底时：A股估值率先修复、股价上涨，中小盘成长股占优，TMT、传媒涨幅领先； >第二阶段，PPI同比由底部回升至转正前：大盘继续上行、风格更加均衡，成长、消费、周期均有不错表现，如电子、通信、电力设备、食品饮料、家 电、美容护理、有色金属、基础化工等； >第三阶段，PPI同比转正后：大盘转入高位震荡，股市风格再平衡，价值占优的概率提升，周期、稳定风格表现跑赢大盘。 2、债市方面，通胀因素仅是影响10Y国债利率的变量之一，增长预期和流动性环境更为关键。只有需求确定性改 ...

Core Insights - The "2025 Financial Annual Conference" held in Beijing focused on high-quality development of listed companies, emphasizing resilience and growth through cycles [1] - The "Golden Intelligence Award" recognized over 140 companies, including Haier Smart Home and others, as exemplars of high-quality development from more than 8,000 candidates [1] Company Insights - Haier Smart Home's Vice President, Sun Danfeng, discussed the transformation of the home appliance industry in the AI era, aiming to automate household tasks and enhance user experience [3] - The company plans a three-step strategy for AI integration: achieving basic smart operations, launching the "AI Eye" technology for proactive household management by early 2025, and exploring robotic solutions for cleaning tasks [3][4] - The focus on user-centric design will shift from traditional hardware to scenario-based exploration, creating products that adapt to household needs and integrating new roles like "AI trainers" [4] Industry Trends - The AI era is expected to reshape R&D and production models in the home appliance sector, emphasizing software-defined products and data-driven processes for rapid iteration and user service [4] - The core goal of high-quality development in the industry is to enhance the quality of life for users through continuous innovation in smart appliances [4] - Companies like Haier Smart Home are leveraging technological innovation and scenario-based approaches to drive industry upgrades and lifestyle transformations [4]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods Model Name: China Securities A500 Index - **Model Construction Idea**: The China Securities A500 Index aims to provide a balanced industry representation and incorporate ESG exclusion criteria to enhance the sustainability and resilience of its constituent stocks[2][21]. - **Model Construction Process**: 1. **Sample Space**: The index includes A-shares and depositary receipts issued by red-chip companies that meet specific criteria, such as not being ST or *ST securities, having been listed for more than a quarter, and being part of the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect or Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect[21]. 2. **Exclusion Criteria**: Securities with a China Securities ESG rating of C or below are excluded[22]. 3. **Selection Criteria**: Securities are selected based on their market capitalization, liquidity, and industry representation to ensure a balanced distribution across sectors[22]. 4. **Final Selection**: The index includes 500 securities, with a focus on large-cap, highly liquid stocks, and aims to reflect the performance of the most representative listed companies in each industry[21][22]. - **Model Evaluation**: The inclusion of ESG criteria significantly optimizes the risk-return characteristics of the index, enhancing its investment value by reducing volatility and increasing excess returns[24][27]. Model Backtesting Results - **China Securities A500 Index**: - **Expected Annual Return**: 12.9%[9] - **Annualized Volatility**: Lower compared to the benchmark index after ESG exclusion[24] - **Correlation with Other Assets**: Low correlation with Hong Kong stocks, US stocks, commodities, gold, and bonds, making it suitable for risk diversification[17][19] - **Excess Return**: Significantly higher than the benchmark index after ESG exclusion[24] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods Factor Name: ESG Exclusion - **Factor Construction Idea**: The ESG exclusion factor aims to enhance the sustainability and resilience of the index by excluding companies with poor ESG ratings[2][21]. - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. **ESG Rating**: Companies with a China Securities ESG rating of C or below are excluded from the index[22]. 2. **Selection Criteria**: The remaining companies are selected based on their market capitalization, liquidity, and industry representation[22]. - **Factor Evaluation**: The ESG exclusion factor significantly improves the risk-return profile of the index, reducing volatility and increasing excess returns[24][27]. Factor Backtesting Results - **ESG Exclusion Factor**: - **Annualized Return**: 3.96% for the China Securities 500 ESG Benchmark Index compared to 2.42% for the China Securities 500 Index[24] - **Annualized Volatility**: Lower for the ESG Benchmark Index compared to the standard index[24] - **Maximum Drawdown**: Lower for the ESG Benchmark Index compared to the standard index[24] Additional Information - **Index Characteristics**: The China Securities A500 Index includes large-cap, highly liquid stocks with a balanced representation of new and traditional economies, focusing on sectors such as electronics, electric power equipment and new energy, banking, non-ferrous metals, and pharmaceuticals[31][33][35]. - **Index Valuation and Profitability**: The index's current valuation is not high, with significant room for upward valuation adjustment. The expected earnings growth is high, making it a cost-effective investment[45][47]. Fund Information - **Fund Name**: China Securities A500 ETF - **Fund Objective**: To closely track the target index, minimizing tracking deviation and tracking error[51]. - **Fund Manager**: Managed by Mr. Li Jun, who has extensive experience in managing passive index products[53]. - **Fund Performance**: The fund has been operating steadily since its inception, closely tracking the performance of the China Securities A500 Index[54]. Fund Manager Information - **Asset Management Scale**: China Asset Management's scale continues to grow, ranking among the top in the industry with a comprehensive product line[57]. References - [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] [24] [25] [26] [27] [28] [29] [30] [31] [32] [33] [34] [35] [36] [37] [38] [39] [40] [41] [42] [43] [44] [45] [46] [47] [48] [49] [50] [51] [52] [53] [54] [55] [56] [57] [58] [59] [60] [61] [62] [63] [64] [65] [66]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index maintained a slight increase of 0.17% at the close, with sectors such as internet, technology, healthcare, and banking showing minor gains, while the consumer sector experienced a decline [1] - The Hang Seng Technology Index saw a narrow range of fluctuations, closing up 0.14%, with notable increases in stocks like SMIC (up 3.14%), BYD, Kuaishou, NetEase, and Tencent, while Alibaba and Baidu faced slight declines [3] - The Hang Seng Healthcare Index rebounded after a previous drop, closing up 0.13%, with stocks like JD Health, WuXi Biologics, and Innovent Biologics showing small gains, whereas companies like 3SBio, CSPC Pharmaceutical, and Hansoh Pharmaceutical remained weak [3] Group 2 - The consumer sector faced a downturn, closing down 0.3%, with significant declines in stocks such as WuXi AppTec (down 3.22%) and Lao Pu Gold (down 2.67%), while companies like China Resources Beer, Horizon Robotics, and Alibaba Health managed to rise against the trend [3]

Core Insights - The light industry in China has completed the revision of 52 key recommended national standards, promoting the industry's transformation towards greening, intelligence, and circularity, thereby supporting consumption upgrades and high-quality industrial development [1][2] Group 1: Industry Performance - From January to October, the light industry achieved operating revenue of 19 trillion yuan and profits of 1.14 trillion yuan, accounting for 13% of national industrial assets and contributing nearly 20% of national industrial profits, demonstrating strong development resilience [1] - The implementation of the 52 light industry standards aligns with industry upgrades and consumer demands, with 38 standards related to the "old-for-new" policy for home appliances [1] Group 2: Standards and Impact - The "old-for-new" policy has led to the replacement of over 128 million home appliances, generating sales exceeding 2.5 trillion yuan [1] - Nine standards related to recycling have been established, clarifying the recycling process for household appliances and enhancing the recycling rate of old appliances, with approximately 86 million units processed in the first ten months of the year [2] - Five low-carbon transition standards have been introduced, helping companies identify high-carbon segments and optimize emission reduction paths, with an example from Jingdezhen showing potential annual CO2 reductions of about 84,000 tons through upgrades [2]

Core Insights - In the first 11 months of this year, over 128 million home appliances were replaced through China's trade-in program, generating sales exceeding 2.5 trillion yuan [1] Group 1: Policy and Standards - The National Market Regulation Administration introduced the "Action Plan for Upgrading Equipment and Trade-in of Consumer Goods" which focuses on upgrading energy consumption and emission standards, enhancing product quality and safety standards, and increasing recycling standards [1] - A total of 294 national standards across 13 key areas have been approved and published, aimed at driving equipment upgrades and releasing consumer potential [1] Group 2: Environmental Impact - The new mandatory national standard for coal-fired power generation is expected to reduce average coal consumption to below 302 grams per kilowatt-hour by 2030, leading to a decrease in carbon dioxide emissions by approximately 160 million tons [1] Group 3: Consumer Confidence and Safety - Significant breakthroughs in safety standards for electric vehicle batteries have been achieved, with "no fire, no explosion" now a mandatory requirement, enhancing the safety of new energy vehicles and boosting consumer confidence [1] Group 4: Industry Transformation - The implementation of these standards has effectively driven the light industry sector towards transformation and upgrading, with leading companies accelerating the launch of mid-to-high-end smart furniture products, creating a market size exceeding 10 billion yuan [2]

每经AI快讯，12月26日，深康佳Ａ(000016.SZ)公告称，公司于2025年12月26日收到深圳证监局出具的 《决定书》和深交所出具的《监管函》。原因为公司2018年6月出售安徽开开视界电子商务有限公司5% 股权，该股权转让事项不满足投资收益确认条件，导致公司2018年半年报信息披露不准确。公司及相关 人员将积极整改，并加强对相关法律法规的学习，提升公司规范运作水平和信息披露质量。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, China's manufacturing sector is undergoing a significant transformation driven by emerging technologies like artificial intelligence, which are enhancing industrial upgrades and shifting the focus from scale advantages to quality and system advantages [1][2][3]. Group 1: Transformation of Manufacturing - The transformation is characterized by the emergence of 17,600 national "little giant" enterprises leading innovation, 140,000 specialized and innovative small and medium-sized enterprises laying the foundation for the industrial ecosystem, and 600,000 technology and innovation-oriented SMEs growing rapidly [3]. - The shift from "manufacturing" to "intelligent manufacturing" is evident, with companies like Changhong enhancing their AI strategies, resulting in a rise in their global brand rankings [3][5]. - Changhong's comprehensive AI strategy includes "AI + manufacturing, AI + products, and AI + operations," which has led to the development of smart appliances that understand consumer needs [5][6]. Group 2: Systemic Empowerment - The new development momentum is leading to a change in the path of industrial upgrades, moving from single product breakthroughs to systemic empowerment through platforms and ecosystems [8]. - Changhong's establishment of the first national "dual-cross" industrial internet platform in Sichuan exemplifies this systemic approach, enabling data-driven operations and enhancing collaboration among enterprises [9][10]. - The platform facilitates data sharing and operational integration for nearly 3,000 SMEs, significantly improving efficiency and reducing barriers to digital transformation [10]. Group 3: Technological Self-Reliance - The core strength of China's manufacturing transformation lies in the strategy of technological self-reliance, focusing on overcoming key technological challenges and nurturing "invisible champions" [11]. - Changhong has achieved significant milestones, such as being the global leader in compressor production and developing advanced technologies in various sectors, including rail and aviation [11][12]. - The dual-driven innovation system, combining internal and external collaboration, is crucial for breaking through technological barriers and fostering a robust industrial foundation [12].

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the RMB against the USD, crossing the 7.0 mark, signals a significant shift in market dynamics, impacting various sectors and consumer behavior [1][3]. Exchange Rate Dynamics - The RMB has experienced a steady rise since hitting a low of 7.3498 in April, culminating in a peak of 6.9965 on December 25, marking a 14-month high [1][3]. - The decline of the USD index, dropping over 8% this year, has diminished the attractiveness of USD-denominated assets, prompting capital to seek new opportunities [3][5]. Capital Flows and Market Reactions - Export companies are accelerating their currency conversion ahead of the year-end, contributing to increased demand for RMB as they prepare for the new year [5]. - There is a noticeable trend of foreign capital returning to the A-share market, particularly in technology, consumer, and financial sectors, with blue-chip stocks gaining favor due to their liquidity and reasonable valuations [5][10]. Stock Market Implications - The appreciation of the RMB is expected to benefit the stock market, with estimates suggesting that a 1% increase in the RMB could enhance A-share returns by approximately 3% [8]. - However, not all sectors will benefit equally; foreign capital is favoring core assets and blue-chip stocks, while industries reliant on imported materials, such as aviation and paper manufacturing, are experiencing cost reductions and improved financial performance [10][12]. Real Estate Market Impact - The direct impact of RMB appreciation on the real estate market is limited, as foreign investment faces regulatory hurdles and the overall market is influenced more by policy and demographic factors [14][16]. - While RMB appreciation may enhance the attractiveness of RMB-denominated assets, it does not directly drive up property prices, which remain under pressure in major cities [16][17]. Consumer Behavior and Purchasing Power - The appreciation of the RMB enhances purchasing power for consumers, making overseas education, travel, and imported goods more affordable [19][21]. - However, individuals holding USD-denominated assets may face challenges, as currency fluctuations can offset interest earnings, highlighting the importance of considering broader trends in investment decisions [21][23]. Strategic Investment Considerations - Investors are encouraged to diversify their asset allocations rather than concentrating on a single currency or asset type, as this approach mitigates risks associated with currency fluctuations [25]. - The recent RMB appreciation reflects a broader reassessment of risks and opportunities in the global market, indicating a potential shift in capital flows towards Chinese assets [25][27].

Core Viewpoint - The release of 294 national standards across 13 key areas marks the successful completion of the "Two New" standard enhancement initiative, aimed at improving energy consumption, product quality, and recycling standards in China [1]. Group 1: Energy Consumption and Emission Standards - The initiative focuses on upgrading energy consumption and emission standards, with 113 national standards published to guide industries like thermal power, steel, and construction materials in energy efficiency [1]. - A new mandatory standard for coal-fired power generation aims to reduce average coal consumption to below 302 grams per kilowatt-hour by 2030, potentially decreasing carbon dioxide emissions by approximately 160 million tons [1]. Group 2: Quality and Safety Standards - The establishment of 18 national standards for greenhouse gas emissions accounting provides a unified framework for companies to implement energy-saving and carbon reduction measures [2]. - A total of 115 national standards have been revised in sectors such as automotive, home appliances, and emerging consumption, enhancing product quality and safety, thereby increasing consumer confidence [2]. - Significant advancements in electric vehicle battery safety standards now mandate that batteries must not catch fire or explode, promoting better battery design and thermal management [2]. Group 3: Recycling and Resource Utilization Standards - The initiative includes 66 national standards for the recycling, disassembly, and reuse of products, ensuring that product design considers recyclability and that recycling processes are scientifically managed [2][3]. - A mandatory standard for information clearance in electronic products has been introduced to ensure the safety and privacy of second-hand product circulation [3]. - The establishment of 12 national standards for battery recycling promotes efficient recovery of strategic resources like nickel, cobalt, and lithium [3]. Group 4: Market Impact and Consumer Behavior - The implementation of these standards supports the "old for new" consumption policy, with over 128 million home appliances replaced in the first 11 months of the year, generating sales exceeding 2.5 trillion yuan [3]. - Standards for home appliance recycling have improved the efficiency of waste appliance recovery, with approximately 8.6 million units processed, yielding around 1.9 million tons of recycled resources [3].