Core Insights - China's total goods trade import and export value reached 17.94 trillion yuan in the first five months of the year, a year-on-year increase of 2.5% [1] - Exports amounted to 10.67 trillion yuan, growing by 7.2%, while imports were 7.27 trillion yuan, declining by 3.8% [1] - The growth rate of imports and exports accelerated significantly after high-level Sino-U.S. economic talks [1] Trade Performance - General trade and processing trade both saw year-on-year growth in the first five months, with general trade at 11.51 trillion yuan (up 0.8%) and processing trade at 3.21 trillion yuan (up 6.2%) [1] - Trade with African countries reached a record high for the same period, totaling 963.21 billion yuan, an increase of 12.4% [1] - ASEAN remains China's largest trading partner with a total trade value of 3.02 trillion yuan, growing by 9.1% [1] Private and Foreign Investment - Private enterprises' import and export value reached 10.25 trillion yuan, a growth of 7%, accounting for 57.1% of China's total foreign trade [2] - Foreign-funded enterprises also showed stable growth, with a total import and export value of 5.21 trillion yuan, up 2.3% [2] - The number of foreign-funded enterprises with import and export performance exceeded 73,000, the highest in five years [2] Export Structure - The export of equipment manufacturing products was robust, totaling 6.22 trillion yuan, a growth of 9.2%, and accounting for 58.3% of total exports [2] - Notable growth in specific sectors included electric vehicles (up 19%), engineering machinery (up 10.7%), and industrial robots (up 55.4%) [2] Regional Trade Dynamics - The central region's import and export value reached 1.5 trillion yuan, growing by 11.1%, with exports increasing by 16.9% [3] - The central region's growth rate outpaced the national average by 8.6 percentage points, reflecting the potential of the region under the "Rise of Central China" strategy [3] - The overall resilience of China's goods trade has improved, with growth accelerating from 1.3% in the first quarter to 2.5% currently [3]

科技创新成为推动外贸发展的重要引擎。4月份中小企业出口指数达到50.4%，这一数值已连续13个月 保持在扩张区间。数据表明，中小企业出口势头保持强劲，国际市场竞争力持续提升。 今年以来，我国中小企业经营状况呈现积极变化。产销环节持续改善，企业创新动力不断增强，整体发 展态势稳中向好。这一良好表现为全国工业经济平稳增长注入强劲动力。 最新数据显示，1至4月期间，规模以上工业中小企业增加值实现8.2%的同比增长。企业营业收入规模 达到25.8万亿元，体现出较强的市场活力。装备制造业与原材料制造业表现尤为突出，技术升级有效带 动了市场需求增长。在31个制造业大类中，有28个行业实现正增长，覆盖面相当广泛。 金融支持同样为中小企业发展注入活力。一季度末，获得贷款支持的科技型中小企业达27.18万家，获 贷率为49.6%，比去年同期提高3.6个百分点。科技型中小企业本外币贷款余额达3.33万亿元，同比增长 24%，增速明显高于各项贷款平均水平。 技术创新在具体企业中得到生动体现。江苏一家盾构机制造企业通过技术革新，成功推出小直径盲井施 工机型。该设备将传统挖掘效率提升了10倍，技术突破带来显著的市场优势。目前该企业来自 ...

Group 1: PMI Data Overview - In May 2025, the manufacturing PMI recorded 49.5%, slightly up from 49% in April[5] - The non-manufacturing business activity index was at 50.3%, down from 50.4%[5] - The composite PMI output index increased to 50.4% from 50.2%[5] Group 2: Sector Performance - In May, the production and new orders PMI were 50.7% and 49.8%, respectively, indicating improvements[5] - High-tech and equipment manufacturing sectors showed PMIs of 50.9% and 51.2%, both in the expansion zone[5] - The raw materials sector PMI was at 47%, indicating insufficient production and demand[5] Group 3: Export and Import Trends - New export orders PMI rose to 47.5% from 44.7%, signaling a key demand recovery[5] - Import PMI also increased to 47.1% from 43.4%, reflecting a significant rebound[5] - Despite improvements, external trade orders are expected to have limited long-term impact due to high tariffs[5] Group 4: Business Size Impact - Large enterprises' PMI was 50.7%, while medium and small enterprises recorded 47.5% and 49.3%, respectively[5] - Large enterprises were crucial for the PMI rebound, with their production and demand indices returning above the neutral line[5] Group 5: Price Stability and Service Sector - The factory price and major raw material purchase price PMIs were 44.7% and 46.9%, indicating price stability[5] - The service sector showed slight recovery with business activity and new orders indices at 50.2% and 46.6%[5]

Group 1: Core Insights - The manufacturing industry is emphasized as a crucial pillar of the national economy, with a focus on maintaining a reasonable proportion of manufacturing for modernization in China [1] - The equipment manufacturing sector is experiencing rapid growth, with a projected increase of 7.7% in value-added output in 2024, contributing 46.2% to the overall industrial growth [1][2] - Significant advancements in research and development have led to a reduction in the technology gap with international counterparts, achieving domestic substitution for many imported devices and reaching world-class standards in certain fields [2] Group 2: Industry Developments - Jinan Second Machine Tool has become one of the top three manufacturers of CNC stamping equipment globally, with its products being utilized by major domestic and international automotive manufacturers [2] - Domestic shield tunneling machines have emerged as competitive alternatives to those from Germany and Japan, with companies like China Railway Equipment producing machines that are fully controllable across the entire supply chain [2] - Chinese companies dominate the global market for solar panels, wind turbines, and vehicle batteries, with the top five manufacturers in the solar component sector all being Chinese firms in 2024 [2] Group 3: Challenges and Opportunities - The equipment manufacturing industry still faces challenges, including reliance on imports for key components and a shortage of high-end talent, particularly in foundational research and skilled labor [3] - The global trend towards intelligent and green manufacturing presents an opportunity for the industry to enhance its quality and competitiveness through effective policy measures [3][4] - There is a call for increased investment in intelligent and green technologies, with a focus on collaboration between universities, research institutions, and enterprises to drive innovation [3][4] Group 4: Strategic Initiatives - Accelerating the intelligent transformation of the industry by integrating advanced technologies such as AI, big data, and IoT into the manufacturing process is essential [4] - Promoting green low-carbon transitions by developing green energy storage, advanced environmental protection equipment, and establishing green manufacturing systems is crucial for meeting global demand [4]

宏观 证券研究报告 |点评报告 2025/6/3 5月PMI数据点评—— 供需修复，经济回稳 徐超 S1190521050001 证券分析师： 分析师登记编号： 万琦 S1190524070001 证券分析师： 分析师登记编号： 目录 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 守正 出奇 宁静 致远 1、制造业PMI温和改善 2、非制造业延续平稳扩张态势 ➢ 中国5月官方制造业PMI49.5，预期49.5，前值49.0。 1、制造业PMI温和改善 ➢制造业PMI边际小幅修复。5月制造业采购经理指数为49.5%，比上月上升0.5个百分点，符合市场预 期，表现好于季节性。经济有所回稳，如期实现温和修复，这一方面得益于国内积极政策的加紧实 施，另一方面也与5月中美日内瓦经贸会谈达成协议、关税冲击有所缓和有关。 ➢多数分项较前值有所反弹。从主要分项指数的边际变化来看，本月除产成品库存指数、购进价格指 数、出厂价格指数和供应商配送时间指数较前值下降外，其余分项（生产指数、新订单指数、新出 口订单指数、积压订单指数、采购量指数、进口指数、原材料库存指数、从业人员指数和生产经营 活动预期指数）均出现不同程度的上行，上升幅度在0.2 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In May, China and the US reached an agreement to suspend the implementation of tariffs, leading to an improvement in Sino-US trade. The import index and new export order index rebounded, driving the recovery of domestic supply and demand, and the manufacturing PMI increased month-on-month. However, considering that the new order index is still below the boom line, enterprises' willingness to expand production is not strong, and the price level continues to decline. The marginal improvement in external demand may have limited impact on boosting the boom level. The US anti-globalization policy has long-term and negative effects on the Chinese economy, and the room for easing domestic fiscal and domestic demand promotion policies may be limited. The expectation of stable growth policies will continue to strengthen [3][26]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Export Marginally Improves, Manufacturing Boom Rebounds - Manufacturing PMI rebounds, with a month-on-month increase greater than the seasonal average. In May, the manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, but still below the critical point. From a seasonal perspective, the month-on-month increase of 0.5 percentage points is greater than the average increase of 0.1 percentage points in the past five years. However, the manufacturing PMI is lower than the average of 49.9% in the same period of the past five years, only higher than that in 2023 [12]. - Most sub - indices of the manufacturing PMI increase, and the number of sub - indices in the expansion range remains the same as last month. Among the 13 sub - indices, 9 increase in boom level and 4 decline. Only 2 sub - indices, namely the production and operation activity expectation and production, are in the expansion range [14]. - The price indices have declined for three consecutive months, but the decline has narrowed. In May, the main raw material purchase price index and ex - factory price index of the manufacturing PMI were 46.9% and 44.7% respectively, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the decline has narrowed by 2.7 and 3.0 percentage points respectively compared with the previous month [16]. - The finished product inventory decreases passively, and enterprises' willingness to expand production increases. The raw material inventory index is 47.4%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month; the finished product inventory index is 46.5%, down 0.8 percentage points; the purchase volume index is 47.6%, up 1.3 percentage points from the previous month [16]. - Production returns to expansion, and the new order index approaches the critical point. The production index is 50.7%, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, rising above the critical point. The new order index is 49.8%, up 0.6 percentage points from the previous month [19]. - The PMI of large enterprises rises above the critical point, the boom of medium - sized enterprises declines, and the boom of small enterprises improves. The PMI of large enterprises is 50.7%, up 1.5 percentage points from the previous month; the PMI of medium - sized enterprises is 47.5%, down 1.3 percentage points from the previous month; the PMI of small enterprises is 49.3%, up 0.6 percentage points from the previous month [19]. - The high - tech manufacturing industry continues to expand. The PMI of the high - tech manufacturing industry is 50.9%, remaining in the expansion range for four consecutive months [20]. 2. Service Industry Boom Slightly Increases, Construction Industry Boom Declines - The non - manufacturing boom level declines but remains in the expansion range, and the month - on - month performance is weaker than the seasonal average. In May, the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.3%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, but still above the critical point. From a seasonal perspective, the month - on - month decline of 0.1 percentage points is lower than the average increase of 0.9 percentage points in the past five years [22]. - The service industry boom rebounds, and the boom of holiday - related consumption industries increases. The service industry business activity index is 50.2%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. Driven by the "May Day" holiday effect, industries such as railway transportation, air transportation, accommodation, and catering have significantly rebounded [22]. - The construction industry boom declines but remains in the expansion range. The construction industry business activity index is 51.0%, down 0.9 percentage points from the previous month. The business activity index of civil engineering construction is 62.3%, up 1.4 percentage points from the previous month [23]. - The composite PMI output index slightly rebounds. In May, the composite PMI output index was 50.4%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the overall production and operation activities of Chinese enterprises continue to expand [24]. 3. Marginal Recovery of Boom, Policy Still Needs to Be Strengthened - The marginal improvement in external demand has limited impact on boosting the boom level. Although the manufacturing PMI has increased, the new order index is still below the boom line, enterprises' willingness to expand production is not strong, and the price level continues to decline. The US anti - globalization policy has long - term negative effects on the Chinese economy, and the room for easing domestic fiscal and domestic demand promotion policies is limited. Therefore, the expectation of stable growth policies will continue to strengthen [3][26].

Economic Indicators - In May 2025, China's manufacturing PMI rose to 49.5%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from April[1] - The non-manufacturing business activity index in May was 50.3%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from April[1] - The comprehensive PMI output index increased to 50.4%, up 0.2 percentage points from April[1] Factors Influencing PMI - The rise in manufacturing PMI was primarily driven by the implementation of proactive macro policies and a rebound in exports due to the easing of the US-China tariff conflict[2] - New credit and social financing in May were supported by a series of financial policy measures, including a 0.25 percentage point reduction in public housing loan rates[2] - The new export orders index and import index rose to 47.5% and 47.1%, respectively, reflecting increases of 2.8 and 3.7 percentage points from the previous month[2] Challenges and Limitations - Despite the improvements, the manufacturing PMI remains in a contraction zone, influenced by high tariffs over 40% from the US and ongoing adjustments in the domestic real estate market[3] - High-frequency data indicated a decline in operating rates in most industries, except for those related to infrastructure investment, which saw an increase[3] Price Trends - The manufacturing PMI's price indices both fell slightly by 0.1 percentage points, remaining in a deep contraction zone, with PPI expected to decline further from -2.7% to around -3.1% year-on-year[4] - High-tech manufacturing PMI remained above 51.5% for four consecutive months, indicating strong growth and resilience in this sector[4] Service Sector Insights - The service sector PMI was 50.2%, up 0.1 percentage points from April, supported by increased tourism during the May Day holiday[5] - The construction PMI fell to 51.0%, down 0.9 percentage points, primarily due to a decline in real estate investment activities[5] Future Outlook - The implementation of steady growth policies is expected to provide crucial support for macroeconomic operations, with a focus on expanding domestic demand and accelerating infrastructure investment[6] - The manufacturing PMI is projected to rise further to around 49.7% in June, driven by the "export rush" effect following the easing of tariffs[6]

Group 1 - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for May recorded 49.5%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating signs of improvement in manufacturing activity and positive changes in economic operations [1] - The production index reached 50.7%, up 0.9 percentage points from last month, indicating a recovery in production activities [1] - The new orders index was at 49.8%, rising 0.6 percentage points, suggesting a rebound in market demand [1] Group 2 - Large enterprises showed significant performance, with the PMI index rising to 50.7%, an increase of 1.5 percentage points, returning to the expansion zone [1] - The equipment manufacturing and consumer goods industries had PMIs of 51.2% and 50.2%, respectively, up 1.6 and 0.8 percentage points from the previous month [1] - High-tech manufacturing continued its positive development trend, with a PMI of 50.9%, remaining in the expansion zone for four consecutive months [1] Group 3 - Positive signals emerged in foreign trade, with the new export orders index and import index at 47.5% and 47.1%, respectively, increasing by 2.8 and 3.7 percentage points [1] - The export container freight index rose to 1117.61 points, up 0.9%, indicating a sustained positive market trend [1] - Port cargo throughput remained high, with a total of 27134.8 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 2.8% [1] Group 4 - The production and business activity expectation index was stable at 52.5%, up 0.4 percentage points, reflecting overall confidence among manufacturing enterprises [2] - Continuous implementation of growth-stabilizing policies, including interest rate cuts, has supported the rebound in manufacturing PMI [2] - Multiple leading indicators suggest that the economic operation in the second quarter is likely to maintain a stable trend, with improvements in manufacturing sentiment and export data providing strong support for economic stability [2]

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - In May, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose by 0.5 percentage points to 49.5%, indicating an improvement in manufacturing sentiment [2][5] - The production index increased to 50.7%, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, signaling accelerated manufacturing activity [2] - The new orders index rose to 49.8%, reflecting a 0.6 percentage point increase, suggesting a positive trend in demand [2] Group 2: Export and Trade - The new export orders index and import index increased to 47.5% and 47.1%, respectively, with rises of 2.8 and 3.7 percentage points [4] - The export container freight index rose by 0.9% to 1117.61 points, indicating a recovery in shipping rates [4] - Port cargo throughput reached 27,134.8 million tons, a 2.8% increase, while container throughput rose to 656.4 thousand TEUs, up 3.63% [4] Group 3: Economic Policy and Outlook - Experts emphasize the need for continued and coordinated efforts in growth-stabilizing policies to solidify the economic recovery [5][6] - The government is expected to enhance public investment to boost market demand and corporate orders, aiming to activate the domestic market [6] - New incremental policies are anticipated to be introduced by the end of June to support employment and economic stability [6]

Core Insights - The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for May indicates a slight recovery in China's manufacturing sector, with the manufacturing PMI at 49.5%, up 0.5 percentage points month-on-month, while the non-manufacturing business activity index is at 50.3%, down 0.1 percentage points [1][2] - The overall economic output remains in an expansion phase, with the composite PMI output index at 50.4%, reflecting a 0.2 percentage point increase [1] Manufacturing Sector - The production index rose to 50.7%, indicating a recovery in manufacturing activities, while the new orders index increased to 49.8% [2] - The high-tech manufacturing PMI stands at 50.9%, maintaining expansion for four consecutive months, while equipment manufacturing and consumer goods PMIs are at 51.2% and 50.2%, respectively [3] - Large enterprises show a PMI of 50.7%, returning to expansion, while medium-sized enterprises have a PMI of 47.5%, and small enterprises at 49.3% [3] Trade and Export - New export orders index and import index improved to 47.5% and 47.1%, respectively, with increases of 2.8 and 3.7 percentage points month-on-month [2] - The recent China-US Geneva trade talks have positively impacted manufacturing exports, leading to a slowdown in the decline of new export orders [2] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index remains above the critical point at 50.3%, indicating continued expansion, although it decreased by 0.1 percentage points [5] - The construction industry index is at 51%, while the service industry index is at 50.2%, showing mixed performance [5][6] - The information service sector continues to thrive, with business activity indices in various service sectors remaining above 55.0%, indicating strong growth [6][7] Economic Outlook - Analysts suggest that the government should enhance economic stabilization policies and promote domestic demand while maintaining high-level openness to external markets [4] - The business activity expectation index for the construction sector is at 52.4%, reflecting optimism among construction enterprises [6]