1. Market Index Performance - **Global Stock Indexes**: On July 31, 2025, the Dow Jones Industrial Index closed at 44,461.28, down 0.385% from the previous day; the Nasdaq Index closed at 21,129.67, up 0.149%; the S&P 500 closed at 6,362.90, down 0.125%; the Hang Seng Index closed at 25,176.93, down 1.362% [2]. - **SHIBOR and Dollar Index**: The SHIBOR overnight rate was 1.32, down 3.587% from the previous day; the dollar index was 99.79, down 0.179%. The dollar - to - RMB (CFETS) exchange rate remained unchanged [2]. - **Commodity Futures**: COMEX gold rose 0.078% to 3,327.90; COMEX silver fell 3.152% to 37.18; LME copper fell 0.745% to 9,730.00; NYMEX crude oil rose 1.516% to 70.30. Domestic metals, chemicals, and agricultural products also showed various price changes [2][3][5]. 2. Macro - economic News - **Policy Decisions**: The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee will hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee in October to discuss the 15th Five - Year Plan. The government will implement more active fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, support key areas, and resolve local government debt risks [8]. - **Subsidy Policy**: The state plans to allocate about 90 billion yuan for childcare subsidies in 2025, and localities will open application channels by August 31 [8]. - **Industry Policies**: The China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association will control new capacity in copper smelting and alumina, and promote the exit of backward capacity in some sectors [10]. 3. Morning Views on Major Commodities 3.1 Agricultural Products - **Peanuts**: The peanut market is expected to have a bullish and volatile short - term trend but will maintain a downward long - term trend, with a current pattern of weak supply and demand [12]. - **Oils and Fats**: The oils and fats market has light trading volume and stable basis. Brazil's soybean exports are expected to increase, and Malaysia's palm oil exports are also rising [12]. - **Sugar**: The sugar market is in an internal - strong and external - weak situation. With the arrival of processed sugar in August, the spot market may face pressure. It is recommended to wait and see [12]. - **Corn**: The corn market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. It is recommended to operate within the range of 2,300 - 2,320 yuan/ton [12]. - **Cotton**: ICE cotton and Zhengzhou cotton are both weak. It is recommended to short on rallies, with attention to the 13,350 - yuan support level [13]. - **Hogs**: The hog market is in a state of oversupply. It is expected to fluctuate within a range [13]. - **Eggs**: After this round of price adjustment, the egg spot price is expected to be supported by Mid - Autumn Festival stocking. The futures market is adjusting the basis by following the spot price decline [14]. 3.2 Energy and Chemicals - **Caustic Soda**: The price of caustic soda in Shandong is expected to fluctuate slightly. It is recommended to pay attention to the 9 - 11 reverse spread [16]. - **Urea**: The domestic urea market price is stable. The supply is decreasing, and the inventory is increasing. The price is expected to operate within the range of 1,720 - 1,800 yuan/ton [16][18]. 3.3 Industrial Metals - **Copper and Aluminum**: Copper prices may face pressure if the 50% tariff is imposed. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [18]. - **Alumina**: The fundamentals of alumina are in a surplus situation. The futures price may be strong, but it is necessary to be vigilant about macro - sentiment [18]. - **Steel Products**: The spot market for steel products has weak trading volume. The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils are expected to be supported at certain levels [18]. - **Ferroalloys**: Ferroalloys are currently driven by macro - expectations. It is recommended to operate cautiously [18][19]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal and coke markets are fluctuating and under pressure. The fifth round of coke price increase has started, but steel mills have not responded [19]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate market is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand. It is recommended to wait and see and short on rallies [19]. 3.4 Options and Financial Products - **Stock Index Futures and Options**: On July 30, A - share indexes showed mixed performance. The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures and options changed, and the implied volatility of some options decreased. Trend investors can focus on cross - variety arbitrage opportunities, and volatility investors can buy straddles [19][21].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [2]. Core Views - Precious metals are expected to continue their upward trend, with gold prices rising and a favorable long-term outlook. The gold-silver ratio has reached a peak of over 100 this year, and as gold prices stabilize, silver prices are expected to rise to restore the ratio [5]. - Industrial metal prices are on the rise, driven by significant infrastructure projects, such as the Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project, which is expected to boost overall demand and support metal prices [5]. - The report highlights a positive outlook for the non-ferrous metals sector, particularly in precious metals, as the Federal Reserve enters a rate-cutting cycle and domestic monetary policies strengthen [5]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Data Review 1.1 Precious Metals - Gold prices have increased by 0.26% and silver by 2.24% in the week of July 21-25, 2025. The gold-silver ratio has decreased to 86.13, indicating potential for silver price increases [5]. 1.2 Industrial Metals - Prices for copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, tin, and nickel have increased by 1.8%, 1.7%, 0.7%, 3.4%, 3.7%, and 3.7% respectively. The overall demand is expected to rise due to major infrastructure projects [5][28]. 1.3 Minor Metals - Prices for praseodymium-neodymium oxide have increased by 7.5% weekly, with a year-on-year increase of 41.3%. Tungsten prices have also risen significantly, indicating a recovery in manufacturing demand [5][30][32]. 1.4 Energy Metals - Lithium concentrate prices have risen by 10.5% weekly, while cobalt prices remain stable. Nickel prices have also increased, reflecting growing demand in the energy sector [5][35]. 2. Market Data - The non-ferrous metals sector has seen a 6.70% increase, with specific segments like industrial metals and energy metals rising by 4.72% and 12.40% respectively during the week [36]. 3. Important Events Review - Notable events include President Trump's visit to the Federal Reserve, where discussions on interest rates took place, indicating potential future monetary policy changes that could impact the metals market [43].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [4]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a leading player in the aluminum industry, benefiting from cost advantages in its dual production bases in Yunnan and Xinjiang, and enjoys a low-carbon premium for its hydropower aluminum [4]. - The aluminum price is expected to maintain an upward trend in the medium to long term due to resilient demand in the context of global green low-carbon development [2][4]. - The company has a well-integrated industrial chain, with significant growth potential in its aluminum foil business, which is expected to contribute to future profitability [3][4]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, founded in 1998, is a prominent producer of electrolytic aluminum and coal, with a total electrolytic aluminum capacity of 1.7 million tons per year as of the end of 2024 [1][14]. - It controls coal reserves of 1.286 billion tons, with an exploitable reserve of 587 million tons, making it one of the major producers of smokeless coal in China [1][14]. Aluminum Sector - The supply side of electrolytic aluminum is constrained by domestic capacity limits and ongoing "dual carbon" policies, leading to reduced supply elasticity [2]. - The company benefits from low-cost electricity in Xinjiang due to abundant coal resources, enhancing its profitability in that region [2]. - The hydropower advantage in Yunnan is expected to become more pronounced as low-carbon policies continue to advance [2]. Coal Sector - The company’s coal production capacity includes 3.45 million tons per year of smokeless coal and 5.1 million tons per year of lean coal, with a strong cost control capability leading to higher profit margins [3]. - New coal projects are anticipated to enhance profitability, with ongoing developments in the Xinjiang region expected to improve self-sufficiency in coal resources [3]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 5.2 billion, 6.3 billion, and 7.0 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 8.3, 6.8, and 6.1, indicating a favorable valuation compared to peers [4][5]. - Revenue is expected to grow from 38.37 billion yuan in 2024 to 47.03 billion yuan by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 6.5% [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article suggests that the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting may signal a rate cut in September, which could support gold prices due to expectations of increased liquidity [1][2] - The article highlights that as trade negotiations between the US and multiple countries progress, tariff risks are diminishing, which may positively impact market sentiment and industrial metal prices [1][2] - It notes that the macroeconomic environment is expected to influence industrial metal prices significantly, especially with key domestic meetings and trade talks scheduled for July [1][2] Group 2 - In the precious metals sector, the anticipation of a Federal Reserve rate cut is likely to support gold prices, especially with ongoing trade negotiations and potential tariff adjustments [2] - The industrial metals market is currently experiencing a seasonal slowdown, with weak demand and pressure on processing rates for metals like copper and aluminum, although macroeconomic factors may provide some support [2] - The article emphasizes that if domestic policies aimed at stabilizing growth and promoting internal demand continue to be effective, alongside positive developments in trade negotiations and signals from the Federal Reserve, industrial metal prices could see significant support [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The company's revenue for the first half of 2025 reached 31.619 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.59%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.869 billion yuan, up 15.35% year-on-year [4][12] - The production of copper, zinc, lead, and molybdenum increased significantly, with copper production at 91,800 tons, a year-on-year growth of 7.65% [4][13] - The company’s main copper mine, Yulong Copper Mine, achieved a production of 83,400 tons in the first half of 2025, generating revenue of 6.365 billion yuan, a 26.17% increase year-on-year [15] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2025H1, the company reported a revenue of 31.619 billion yuan, with a net profit of 1.869 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 26.59% and 15.35% respectively [12] - The second quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 15.078 billion yuan, a 7.67% increase year-on-year, but an 8.85% decrease quarter-on-quarter [12] Production and Sales - The production volumes for copper, zinc, lead, and molybdenum in 2025H1 were 91,800 tons, 62,900 tons, 35,100 tons, and 2,500 tons respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 7.65%, 18.61%, 24.63%, and 31.10% [13] - The average prices for copper, lead, zinc, and molybdenum concentrates showed mixed trends, with copper prices increasing by 3.7% year-on-year [13] Future Outlook - The Yulong Copper Mine's third-phase expansion project has been approved, which is expected to increase the production capacity from 1.989 million tons per year to 3 million tons per year, potentially yielding 180,000 to 200,000 tons of copper annually [15][16] - The company forecasts net profits for 2025-2027 to be 3.637 billion, 3.979 billion, and 4.651 billion yuan respectively, with expected growth rates of 24.08%, 9.40%, and 16.89% [16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the steel sector, emphasizing its mid-term investment value under the "anti-involution" policy context [9][14]. Core Viewpoints - The steel sector is expected to have fundamental support for mid-term investment value, driven by supply-side, cost, and profit release expectations [9][14]. - The "anti-involution" policy is seen as a short-term catalyst for realizing mid-term investment logic, with three favorable mid-term logic points identified [9][14]. Supply and Demand Logic - The ultra-low emission transformation is nearing completion, which is expected to reverse structural supply issues and serve as a mid-term capacity clearance tool [15]. - As of April 20, 2025, approximately 760 million tons of capacity have completed or partially completed ultra-low emission transformations [15]. - Downstream demand from infrastructure and shipbuilding industries is anticipated to grow, supporting steel price stabilization and profit release [15]. Cost Logic - The West Mangu project is set to commence production by the end of 2025, with an annual output of 120 million tons, potentially contributing nearly 5% to global supply [15]. - The project is expected to alleviate profit pressure on midstream steel companies from upstream raw material costs [15]. High Dividend Logic - With the completion of ultra-low emission transformations and capacity replacements, capital expenditures for steel companies are expected to decline [15]. - The report anticipates accelerated profit release for midstream steel companies, making high dividends a reality [15]. Steel Price Outlook - The report indicates that the steel price index is expected to continue rising, with a notable increase of 4.16% in the overall steel price index this week [35]. - The price of cold-rolled steel has seen a significant rise of 4.67% [35]. Inventory and Production Data - The report notes a weekly rebar consumption of 2.17 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 5.05% [16]. - Social inventory and steel mill inventory are showing signs of divergence, with expectations for continued improvement on the demand side [22]. New Energy Metals - The report highlights a significant year-on-year increase of 20.95% in lithium carbonate production in June 2025, reaching 71,890 tons [39]. - The demand for new energy vehicles remains strong, with June 2025 production of 1.1923 million units, a year-on-year increase of 24.11% [43]. Price Trends in New Energy Metals - The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate has risen significantly, reaching 77,000 yuan per ton, a week-on-week increase of 17.56% [48]. - Nickel prices have also shown upward trends, with LME nickel settling at 15,330 USD per ton [48].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the metals and new materials industry, indicating a favorable investment environment [4][5]. Core Views - The report highlights a significant increase in the performance of the metals sector, with the non-ferrous metals index rising by 6.70% week-on-week, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 5.01 percentage points [4][5]. - The report emphasizes the upward trend in metal prices, particularly in energy metals and small metals, with notable increases of 12.40% and 14.30% respectively [4][11]. - The report suggests that the long-term trend for gold prices is upward due to central bank purchases and a shift in monetary credit patterns, recommending specific stocks in the gold sector [4][23]. Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.67%, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 2.33% [5]. - The non-ferrous metals index has shown a year-to-date increase of 30.82%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 25.94 percentage points [9]. Price Changes - Industrial metals and precious metals have shown varied price changes, with copper prices decreasing by 0.09% and aluminum prices increasing by 0.23% [4][17]. - Energy materials such as lithium and cobalt have seen significant price increases, with battery-grade lithium carbonate rising by 15.15% [4][18]. Key Company Valuations - The report provides valuations for key companies in the metals sector, indicating potential investment opportunities based on their earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios [20][21]. - For example, Zijin Mining is valued at a PE of 25 for 2023, while Shandong Gold has a PE of 59 [20]. Supply and Demand Analysis - The report notes a decrease in copper social inventory by 2.91 million tons, indicating a tightening supply situation [35]. - The aluminum sector is experiencing a decline in downstream processing enterprise operating rates, which may impact future supply dynamics [52][54]. Growth Cycle Investment Analysis - The report recommends focusing on stable supply-demand dynamics in the new energy manufacturing sector, highlighting specific companies for potential investment [4].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [2][106] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that domestic mining disturbances have intensified, leading to a rebound in lithium prices from the bottom [2] - Copper prices have fluctuated due to significant inventory reduction domestically, with a short-term outlook of price support from low inventory levels [2] - Aluminum prices are expected to remain stable amid rising inventories, while lithium prices have rebounded significantly due to supply-side disturbances [2] - Cobalt prices have increased as inventory is gradually consumed, with potential price rebounds anticipated due to export bans from the Democratic Republic of Congo [2] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - Domestic and international macroeconomic conditions are showing mixed signals, with U.S. unemployment claims lower than expected [6] - The overall performance of the non-ferrous metal sector has outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index [8] 2. Industrial Metals 2.1 Copper - Copper prices have seen an increase of 1.22% in London and 1.07% in Shanghai, with significant inventory changes noted [22] - The report indicates a loss in copper smelting margins, which have expanded to -2475 CNY/ton [22] 2.2 Aluminum - Aluminum prices have increased by 2.33% in London and 1.19% in Shanghai, with rising inventories impacting price stability [34] - The profit margin for aluminum smelting has decreased to 4460 CNY/ton [34] 2.3 Lead and Zinc - Lead prices have risen by 1.55% in London and 0.56% in Shanghai, while zinc prices have increased by 2.26% in London and 2.44% in Shanghai [44] - Mining profits for zinc have improved to 7360 CNY/ton [44] 2.4 Tin and Nickel - Tin prices have increased by 4.89% in London and 2.67% in Shanghai, with nickel prices also showing upward trends [58] - Domestic nickel iron enterprises have reported profits of 5792 CNY/ton [58] 3. Energy Metals 3.1 Lithium - Lithium carbonate prices have risen by 9.38% to 72900 CNY/ton, with lithium spodumene prices increasing by 13.92% to 810 USD/ton [74] - The report notes that smelting margins for lithium remain negative, indicating challenges in profitability [74] 3.2 Cobalt - Domestic cobalt prices have increased by 2.06% to 248000 CNY/ton, with significant price increases anticipated due to supply constraints [86]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Outperform" for the industry [6]. Core Views - The report highlights that supply-side production cuts are expected to dominate lithium prices, with rising costs providing additional support [3][17]. - In the precious metals sector, market concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve have intensified due to pressure from President Trump, which is expected to support gold prices in the short term [2][10]. - For industrial metals, a tight supply of copper is anticipated to continue, while seasonal factors may lead to fluctuations in aluminum prices [3][12]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - The report discusses the impact of President Trump's pressure on the Federal Reserve, which has raised concerns about its independence. This uncertainty is expected to bolster market risk aversion, supporting gold prices in an environment where they are likely to rise more easily than fall [2][10]. - Key stocks to watch include major players like Zhaojin Mining, Shandong Gold, and Zijin Mining, with additional focus on silver and platinum stocks [2][11]. Industrial Metals - The copper market is characterized by a continued tight supply, with expectations of reduced production from some smelters due to low profit margins. The report anticipates that copper prices will remain supported by ongoing demand, particularly from the renewable energy sector [3][12][13]. - Aluminum prices are expected to experience volatility due to seasonal demand fluctuations, but long-term prospects remain positive due to persistent demand from the new energy sector [3][16]. New Energy Metals - The lithium market is facing a dual weakness in supply and demand, with production cuts from lithium salt plants providing limited support. However, the report suggests that lithium remains a strategic investment opportunity in the electric vehicle supply chain [3][17][18]. - Recommended stocks in this sector include Salt Lake Potash, Canggu Mining, and Yongxing Materials, with additional focus on companies like Jiangte Motor and Tianqi Lithium [3][17]. Other Minor Metals - The rare earth market is experiencing strong pricing for light rare earth products due to supply constraints, while heavy rare earths are facing weaker demand. The report notes a divergence in market sentiment, with cautious optimism prevailing despite concerns over potential price corrections [4][19][22]. - Key stocks to monitor include Hunan Gold, Huaxi Nonferrous, and Zhongtian Rare Earth [4][22]. Market Review - The report indicates that the non-ferrous index rose by 6.7%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 indices. Notable stock performances include Zhongtung High-tech with a 40.19% increase and Hai Xing Co. with a 19.04% decline [23][24][25].

Group 1 - The stock price of Yiqiu Resources (601388) closed at 2.74 yuan on July 25, 2025, representing a 3.4% increase from the previous week's price of 2.65 yuan [1] - The company's total market capitalization is currently 6.031 billion yuan, ranking 45th out of 60 in the industrial metals sector and 2662nd out of 5148 in the A-share market [1] - The highest intraday price reached 2.85 yuan on July 25, while the lowest was 2.67 yuan on July 21 [1] Group 2 - Yiqiu Resources' board approved the sale of assets from its wholly-owned subsidiary YCPG, including land and facilities in Johor, Malaysia, for a total of 23.15 million Malaysian Ringgit [1][3] - The asset sales aim to optimize the company's asset structure and enhance overall efficiency [1] - The company has provided a guarantee for a credit loan of 50 million yuan to its subsidiary YCTL, with total external guarantees amounting to approximately 5.2449 billion yuan, which is 119.69% of the company's audited net assets attributable to shareholders for 2024 [2][3]