Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of synthetic rubber is -1, indicating a bearish outlook. The取值 range of trend strength is [-2, 2], with -2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [3]. Report's Core View - The domestic butadiene market continues to decline. With ample supply, downstream support is limited, and the short - term market expectation is bearish. The short - and medium - term fundamentals of butadiene are downward, and the spot price center is gradually moving down. The cost reduction of butadiene drives down the dynamic valuation range of cis - butadiene rubber. Under the background of a neutral fundamental pattern of cis - butadiene rubber itself, the futures price reflects the expectation of price - profit contraction. With weak macro - driving and weak industrial chain fundamentals, cis - butadiene rubber is in a weak operation. Attention should be paid to whether the supply - demand pattern of cis - butadiene rubber will improve in November [2][3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the 12 - contract of cis - butadiene rubber decreased by 225 yuan/ton to 10,360 yuan/ton. The trading volume increased by 31,566 hands to 149,850 hands, the open interest decreased by 3,695 hands to 37,796 hands, and the trading volume increased by 150,980 ten - thousand yuan to 782,908 ten - thousand yuan [1]. - **Spread Data**: The basis of Shandong cis - butadiene minus the futures main contract increased by 125 to 340, the monthly spread of BR11 - BR12 increased by 30 to 65. The prices of North China, East China, and South China cis - butadiene (private) decreased by 200 - 250 yuan/ton [1]. - **Spot Market**: The market price of Shandong cis - butadiene (delivery product) decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 10,700 yuan/ton. The prices of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber (models 1502 and 1712) decreased by 50 - 100 yuan/ton. The mainstream prices of butadiene in Jiangsu and Shandong decreased by 200 - 255 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The operating rate of cis - butadiene remained unchanged at 67.2943%. The theoretical full cost of cis - butadiene decreased by 309 yuan/ton to 9,916 yuan/ton, and the profit decreased by 191 yuan/ton to 584 yuan/ton [1]. 2. Industry News - **Butadiene Market**: The domestic butadiene market continues to decline. Due to ample supply, the support from downstream demand is limited. The short - term market expectation is bearish. The delivery price in Shandong's Luzhong area is about 7,090 - 7,300 yuan/ton, and the ex - tank self - pick - up price in East China is about 6,900 - 7,100 yuan/ton [2]. - **Butadiene Inventory**: As of October 29, the latest inventory of butadiene in East China ports is about 32,000 tons, an increase of 7,400 tons compared to the previous period. The inventory in sample ports has significantly increased due to the arrival of imported ships and the accumulation of some trade inventories. Merchants expect the import volume in November to remain ample [2][3]. - **Market Outlook**: The short - term weakness of butadiene drives down the dynamic valuation range of cis - butadiene rubber. The short - and medium - term fundamentals of butadiene are downward, and the spot price center is gradually moving down. The cost reduction of butadiene leads to an obvious expansion of the processing profit of cis - butadiene rubber. Under the background of a neutral fundamental pattern of cis - butadiene rubber itself, the futures price reflects the expectation of price - profit contraction. With weak macro - driving and weak industrial chain fundamentals, cis - butadiene rubber is in a weak operation. Attention should be paid to whether the supply - demand pattern of cis - butadiene rubber will improve in November [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on the synthetic rubber industry is bearish [3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Recently, frequent macro - news disturbances have led to a significant decline in butadiene prices, deepening the market's pessimistic sentiment and causing a sharp drop in futures prices. Attention should be paid to the spot price adjustment rhythm and the price guidance of natural rubber [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - As of October 30, 2025, the ex - factory price of Sinopec's BR9000 was 11,000 yuan/ton, and that of PetroChina's main sales companies was 11,000 - 11,100 yuan/ton. Although the natural rubber market was strong this period, it failed to drive the butadiene rubber market, and the price difference between the two varieties widened to over 4,000 yuan/ton. The increase in external sales resources of raw materials and the continuous decline in the external market price led to a rapid rise in market bearish sentiment. Affected by the maintenance of Qilu and Yangzi's butadiene rubber plants and future maintenance expectations, the offers of some spot - tight brands in Sinopec and PetroChina and in East and South China were firm, but the rapid weakening of the cost side led to a further decline in the negotiation focus of private resources. The supply prices of Sinopec and PetroChina's butadiene rubber were under pressure to be lowered, but the large price difference between brands was not significantly improved, and the low - price range transactions in the week gradually weakened. At the end of the period, affected by the news of the Fed's interest rate cut and the Sino - US leaders' meeting, the macro - level partially alleviated the market's bearish sentiment, but it had limited impact on boosting the spot market trading of butadiene rubber [5] 3.2 Price Data - **Butadiene (BD)**: The prices of butadiene from various manufacturers and in different markets showed a downward trend. For example, the ex - factory price of Dalian Hengli decreased by 8.06% week - on - week, and the price of Sinopec East China Yangzi decreased by 12.79% week - on - week [9] - **Butadiene Rubber (BR)**: The ex - factory prices of Sinopec and PetroChina's BR9000 decreased by 1.79% week - on - week. The market prices in different regions also generally declined, with the largest week - on - week decline of 3.69% in North China [8][9] - **Styrene - Butadiene Rubber (SBR)**: The ex - factory and market prices of SBR also decreased. For example, the ex - factory price of Sinopec North China Qilu 1502 decreased by 1.75% week - on - week [9] 3.3 Device Maintenance - **Butadiene Devices**: Many butadiene devices in China were under maintenance or shutdown in 2025. For example, Nanjing Chengzhi, Sierbang, and Yanshan Petrochemical's devices were shut down, while some devices such as those of Beifang Huajin and Qilu Petrochemical resumed production [3][11] - **Butadiene Rubber Devices**: Some butadiene rubber devices were under maintenance or had future maintenance plans. For example, Yangzi Petrochemical and Zhejiang Petrochemical's butadiene rubber devices were under maintenance, and Zhenhua New Materials' device was expected to be under maintenance in November [3][11] 3.4 Influencing Factors - **Supply**: The supply of butadiene and butadiene rubber was affected by device operations. The output of butadiene increased due to the resumption of some devices, while the output of butadiene rubber was affected by device maintenance [3] - **Demand**: The demand for semi - steel tires was mixed, with the replacement market for all - season tires being weak and the demand for snow tires growing. The demand for all - steel tires was generally weak, with low replenishment willingness from channel merchants [3] - **Inventory**: The butadiene port inventory increased, while the inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber in enterprises and traders decreased [3] - **Basis**: The basis of butadiene rubber in North, East, and South China was neutral [3] - **Spread/Price Ratio**: The spreads between RU - BR, NR - BR, and the BR - SC ratio were bullish [3] - **Profit**: The production profits of butadiene and butadiene rubber were bearish [3] - **Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Factors**: The 4th Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee clarified the development goals and key tasks for the 14th Five - Year Plan. The Sino - US leaders' meeting in Busan achieved positive progress, and the sanctions on two Russian refineries by Europe and the United States and India's re - planning of energy procurement plans had a neutral impact on the market [3] 3.5 Trading Strategies - **Single - sided Trading**: No trading strategy was recommended [3] - **Arbitrage Trading**: Attention should be paid to the strategy of going long on BR and short on NR/RU [3]

Report Information - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2][10] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [3][11] - Report Date: November 3, 2025 [3][11] Core Data Summary BR (Butadiene Rubber) - **Futures Information**: On October 30, the BR主力合约(12) was at 10,800, with a daily change of 5 and an interval change of -195. The holding volume was 47,385, down 4,831 from the previous day and 2,233 from the interval. The trading volume was 125,337, a daily decrease of 70,313 and an interval decrease of 6,643. The warehouse receipt quantity was 8,580, unchanged from the previous day and down 340 from the interval [4][12]. - **Basis/Spread/Inter - Variety Data**: The 12 - 01 spread was 25, unchanged; the 01 - 02 spread was -25, with a daily change of -5 and an interval change of -15. The RU - BR spread was 4,600, a daily decrease of 230 and an interval increase of 215; the NR - BR spread was 1,725, a daily decrease of 200 and an interval increase of 180 [4][12]. - **Spot Price**: The Shandong market price was 10,800, unchanged from the previous day and down 200 from the interval; the Transfar market price was 10,700, unchanged from the previous day and down 200 from the interval; the Qilu ex - factory price was 11,000, unchanged from the previous day and down 200 from the interval. CFR Northeast Asia was 1,450, unchanged from the previous day and down 25 from the interval; CFR Southeast Asia was 1,700, unchanged [4][12]. - **Profit Data**: The spot processing profit was 848, a daily increase of 51 and an interval increase of 387; the import profit was -1,336, a daily increase of 1 and an interval increase of 21; the export profit was 2,025, a daily decrease of 1 and an interval increase of 154 [4][12]. BD (Butadiene) - **Spot Price**: The Shandong market price was 7,600, a daily decrease of 50 and an interval decrease of 575; the Jiangsu market price was 7,575, a daily decrease of 25 and an interval decrease of 252; the Yangzi ex - factory price was 7,900, unchanged from the previous day and down 400 from the interval. CFR China was 930 (data for October 30 is N/A) [4][12]. - **Profit Data**: The carbon four extraction profit was 911 (data for October 30 and later is N/A). The butene oxidation dehydrogenation profit was -864, a daily increase of 70 and an interval decrease of 360. The import profit was -10 (data for October 30 and later is N/A) [4][12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The synthetic rubber market is expected to experience weak performance due to cost reduction. Short - term butadiene weakness will drive down the dynamic valuation range of butadiene rubber. In the context of a neutral fundamental pattern of butadiene rubber itself, the futures price reflects the expectation of profit contraction. With weakened macro - drivers and a weak industrial chain fundamental background, butadiene rubber will operate weakly. The main focus in the future is whether the supply - demand pattern of butadiene rubber will improve periodically under the background of concentrated maintenance in November and a high NR - BR spread [4]. - In the medium to long term, the supply pressure of butadiene remains the main contradiction, and the fundamental pressure is still relatively large. It is expected to maintain a weak pattern in the medium term [5]. 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Viewpoints on Synthetic Rubber Supply - During the current cycle, the butadiene rubber plants of Yangzi Petrochemical, Zhejiang Petrochemical, and Sichuan Shun were shut down for maintenance, while the butadiene plant of Qilu Petrochemical restarted. The production capacity utilization rate decreased significantly. The output of high - cis butadiene rubber was 26,900 tons, a decrease of 1,900 tons compared to last week, a month - on - month decrease of 6.64%. The production capacity utilization rate was 66.95%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.76 percentage points. In the next cycle, it is expected that Zhenhua New Materials' plant will be shut down for maintenance, and there are expectations of maintenance for Maoming's butadiene plant and Zhejiang Transfar's 120,000 - ton/year rare - earth butadiene rubber plant in November. The short - term shortage of some spot goods is expected to continue [4]. Demand - In terms of rigid demand, the production capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises decreased slightly during the cycle. It is expected that the production capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises will fluctuate slightly in the next cycle, with most enterprises maintaining their current production schedules. The resumption of production by maintenance enterprises will drive up the production capacity utilization rate. However, in November, the overall shipment pressure remains high, and foreign trade orders are under - performing. Some enterprises have plans to reduce production or conduct maintenance, which will limit the increase in the overall production capacity utilization rate. In terms of substitution demand, the spread between the NR - BR main contracts remains at a high level, and the substitution demand remains high. Therefore, the overall demand side of butadiene rubber maintains a high year - on - year growth rate [4]. Inventory - As of October 29, 2025, the domestic inventory of butadiene rubber was 30,900 tons, a decrease of 2,300 tons compared to the previous cycle, a month - on - month decrease of 6.90%. During this cycle, some production enterprises shut down or prepared to shut down, and the significant weakening of the raw material side led to the gradual restoration of production profits, driving some private production enterprises to sell at low prices. At the same time, affected by the approaching month - end and the weak future market, the negotiation focus of the spot side gradually declined, and the inventories of sample production enterprises and sample trading enterprises both decreased significantly [4]. Valuation - Currently, the static valuation range of butadiene rubber futures fundamentals is 9,500 - 11,000 yuan/ton. Due to the increase in butadiene arrivals, the dynamic valuation is expected to gradually decline. The upper limit of the fundamental valuation for the market is around 11,000 - 11,100 yuan/ton. When the main BR2512 contract has a premium of about 100 yuan/ton over the market price in Shandong (with a single - month holding cost of around 90 yuan/ton), there is a risk - free arbitrage opportunity for holding spot goods and short - selling in the futures market, and hedging positions will gradually increase the pressure on the upper space of the market. The theoretical lower limit of the valuation range is 9,500 - 9,700 yuan/ton, as butadiene is expected to support the butadiene rubber price from the cost side. The theoretical full cost of butadiene rubber is mainly estimated based on butadiene price * 1.02+(auxiliary agents + labor)=7,500 * 1.02 + 2,500≈10,200 yuan/ton. In terms of actual full cost, the fixed costs range from 1,500 to 2,500 yuan/ton depending on the factory, so the minimum cost is about 9,500 yuan/ton (7,500 * 1.02+1,800). Due to the significant contradictions in the short - term butadiene industry and the continuous decline of the price center, the lower limit of the dynamic valuation range of butadiene rubber continues to decline [4]. Strategy - Unilateral: Adopt a medium - term strategy of shorting on rallies without chasing short positions. The market may show wide - range fluctuations due to capital games during the day. The upper pressure level is 11,000 - 11,100 yuan/ton (mainly following the trend of butadiene rubber spot), and the lower support level is 9,500 - 9,700 yuan/ton (anchored by the butadiene cost of butadiene rubber) [4]. - Cross - variety: The spread between NR - BR is at a high valuation, but due to insufficient drivers, it is expected to fluctuate [4]. 3.2 This Week's Viewpoints on Butadiene Supply - During the current cycle (October 24 - 30, 2025), the estimated weekly output of Chinese butadiene industry sample enterprises was 104,200 tons, an increase of 2,200 tons compared to the previous cycle, a month - on - month increase of 2.19%. During the week, plants such as Nanjing Chengzhi, Sierbang, Yanshan Petrochemical, Jilin Petrochemical Phase I, Guangzhou Petrochemical, Zhenhai Refining & Chemical, Fushun Petrochemical, and Sichuan Petrochemical remained shut down, but the output of Beifang Huajin, Qilu Petrochemical, and a Shandong petrochemical plant No. 2 resumed, leading to an increase in production. Next week, it is expected that the weekly output of Chinese butadiene sample enterprises will be about 106,300 tons, continuing to increase compared to the current cycle. Sichuan Petrochemical is expected to restart after a short - term shutdown, and attention should be paid to the output of Fushun Petrochemical and the commissioning of new production capacity in South China. It is expected that domestic production will increase slightly [5]. Demand - In the synthetic rubber sector, the medium - term operating rates of butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber remain high, and the demand for butadiene maintains a high year - on - year level. In the short term, with the maintenance of butadiene rubber plants in November, it is expected that the rigid demand for butadiene in synthetic rubber will decrease. In the ABS sector, due to high inventory pressure, the demand for butadiene is expected to remain at a constant level with limited incremental demand. In the SBS sector, the operating rate increased slightly, and the demand for butadiene remained at a rigid level with little change [5]. Inventory - During the current cycle (October 23 - 29, 2025), the total inventory of domestic butadiene samples increased, with a month - on - month increase of 14.23% compared to last week. Among them, the inventory of sample enterprises increased slightly by 1.47% compared to last week, and the enterprise inventory fluctuated slightly due to limited plant changes during the cycle. The inventory of sample ports increased significantly by 30.08% compared to last week. There were imported vessels arriving at ports during the week, and the rapid decline in the market led to slow turnover of some trade volumes, resulting in a significant increase in inventory. At the same time, the market expects that the import volume will still be abundant from October to November, so attention should be paid to inventory changes [5]. Viewpoint - In the medium to long term, the supply pressure of butadiene remains the main contradiction, and the fundamental pressure is still relatively large. It is expected to maintain a weak pattern in the medium term [5]. 3.3 Butadiene Fundamentals - Butadiene is currently in the stage of supply - demand pricing and has a low correlation with the raw material side [8]. - To support the expansion of downstream industries such as ABS, SBS, styrene - butadiene, and butadiene rubber, butadiene production has been continuously expanding, and the expansion speed and amplitude are slightly faster than those of downstream industrial chains at certain stages [10]. - From 2024 to 2025, many enterprises have added or are expected to add butadiene production capacity, with a total of 380,000 tons added in 2024 and 860,000 tons expected to be added in 2025 [12]. 3.4 Synthetic Rubber Fundamentals Supply of Butadiene Rubber - The production and operating rates of butadiene rubber plants of various enterprises have changed. Some plants are shut down for maintenance, some are restarted, and some have future maintenance plans. For example, Yangzi Petrochemical's plant is shut down for maintenance, Qilu Petrochemical's plant has restarted, and Maoming Petrochemical plans to shut down for maintenance in November [41]. - The theoretical production cost, profit, and gross profit margin of butadiene rubber have shown certain trends over time [42][43][44]. - The import and export volumes of butadiene rubber have their own characteristics over different time periods, and the weekly apparent demand also shows corresponding changes [45][46][47]. - The inventory of butadiene rubber includes enterprise inventory, futures inventory, and trader inventory, and these inventories have changed over time [49][50][51]. Demand for Butadiene Rubber - The demand for butadiene rubber is mainly related to the tire industry. The inventory and operating rates of full - steel and semi - steel tires in Shandong Province have shown certain trends over time [53][54].

Report Information - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [3] - Report Date: October 31, 2025 [3] Core Views - The report provides a comprehensive overview of the synthetic rubber market, including price trends, trading volumes, and profit margins for various synthetic rubber products and related raw materials from October 1 to October 30, 2025 [4]. Summary by Category BR (Butadiene Rubber) Futures and Related Indicators - On October 30, the BR主力合约 (12) price was 10,800, with a daily increase of 5 and a weekly decrease of 320. The持仓量 was 47,385, down 4,831 daily and 19,309 weekly. The成交量 was 125,337, a daily decrease of 70,313 but a weekly increase of 24,677. The仓単数量 remained at 8,580, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 340. The虚实比 was 27.61, down 3 daily and 10 weekly [4]. - The顺丁基差 was 0, a daily decrease of 5 and a weekly increase of 20. The丁苯县差 was 450, up 45 daily and 20 weekly. The 12 - 01 spread was 25, with no daily or weekly change, while the 01 - 02 spread was -25, down 5 daily and 30 weekly. The RU - BR spread was 4,600, a daily decrease of 230 and a weekly increase of 382, and the NR - BR spread was 1,725, down 200 daily and up 340 weekly [4]. Spot Prices and Profits - Spot prices in Shandong and Chuanhua were both 10,800 and 10,700 respectively, with no daily change and weekly decreases of 300 and 250. The Qilu factory price was 11,000, unchanged daily and down 200 weekly. CFR Northeast Asia was 1,450, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 25, and CFR Southeast Asia remained at 1,700 [4]. - The现货加工利润 was 848, up 51 daily and 506 weekly. The进口利润 was -1,336, up 1 daily and down 58 weekly. The出口利润 was 2,025, down 1 daily and up 222 weekly [4]. BD (Butadiene) Spot Prices and Profits - Spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu were 7,600 and 7,575 respectively, with daily decreases of 50 and 25 and weekly decreases of 790 and 775. The Yangzi factory price was 7,900, unchanged daily and down 500 weekly. CFR China was 930, down 10 daily and 40 weekly [4]. - The碳四抽提利润 decreased from 1,787 to 911 over the period. The丁烯氧化脱氢利润 was -864 on October 30, up 70 daily and down 610 weekly. The进口利润 was -35, up 56 daily and down 428 weekly, and the出口利润 was -494, down 85 daily and 59 weekly [4]. Downstream Product Profits - The丁苯生产利润 was 1,213, unchanged daily and up 225 weekly. The ABS生产利润 was 89, up 23 daily and 168 weekly. The SBS生产利润 was 485, unchanged daily and up 410 weekly [4].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic synthetic rubber futures market is experiencing a "weak reality, weak expectation" trend due to multiple factors, with prices under pressure from weak cost factors and increasing supply pressure, while demand struggles to absorb the excess supply [1][5]. Supply Side - By 2025, domestic butadiene production capacity is expected to increase by 980,000 tons, reaching a total capacity of 7.677 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 14.6%, which exacerbates the oversupply pressure in the industry [3]. - Despite some companies reducing output or undergoing maintenance due to long-term losses, the overall market supply has not effectively contracted due to new production facilities coming online [3]. - As of mid-October, social inventory of polybutadiene rubber has risen to 32,800 tons, continuing to grow month-on-month, while factory inventories remain at historically high levels [3]. Demand Side - The recovery in the tire industry, the main downstream application for synthetic rubber, has not met expectations, with production capacity utilization rates showing a year-on-year decline despite a month-on-month increase [4]. - As of October 24, the capacity utilization rate for domestic semi-steel tire manufacturers was 72.84%, up 1.77 percentage points month-on-month but down 6.84 percentage points year-on-year [4]. - The inventory turnover days for domestic tire companies are increasing, indicating poor terminal sales and significant destocking pressure, with procurement strategies focusing on just-in-time purchasing [4]. External Environment - Increasing uncertainty in the external environment is further suppressing the release of export orders, contributing to the overall challenges faced by the domestic synthetic rubber market [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term raw material end is under continuous bearish expectations, there will still be an obvious price difference between private resources and Sinopec & PetroChina resources, downstream buyers may still wait for price drops, production enterprise inventory is expected to continue to decline, and trading enterprise inventory may slightly increase [2] - This week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises decreased slightly. Semi - steel tire enterprises' production schedules are mostly stable, with concentrated snow tire orders and many specifications, so production enthusiasm is expected to remain high. All - steel tire enterprises' shipments are stable, and most enterprises' production schedules will likely remain stable, with overall capacity utilization rate expected to fluctuate slightly [2] - The 512 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 10,500 - 11,000 in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 10,800 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 5; the position of the main contract is 47,385 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 4,831 [2] - The 12 - 1 spread of synthetic rubber is 25 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change; the total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber in warehouses is 3,010 tons, with no week - on - week change [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 (Qilu Petrochemical) in Shandong is 10,800 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 150; the mainstream price of BR9000 (Daqing Petrochemical) in Shandong is 10,800 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 150 [2] - The mainstream price of BR9000 (Daqing Petrochemical) in Shanghai is 10,850 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 100; the mainstream price of BR9000 (Maoming Petrochemical) in Guangdong is 11,050 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 100 [2] - The basis of synthetic rubber is 50 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 55 [2] - Brent crude oil is 64.92 dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week increase of 0.52; Northeast Asian ethylene price is 750 dollars/ton, with no week - on - week change [2] - Naphtha CFR Japan is 571.13 dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 2.5; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 930 dollars/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 10 [2] - WTI crude oil is 60.48 dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week increase of 0.33; the mainstream price of butadiene in Shandong market is 7,650 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 300 [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The weekly capacity of butadiene is 15.53 million tons/week, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.01; the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene is 65.62%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.17 [2] - The port inventory of butadiene is 24,600 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 6,200; the daily operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 50.04%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.24 [2] - The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber is 13.04 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.53; the weekly capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber is 73.45%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.37 [2] - The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber is - 204 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 156; the weekly social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 3.32 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 0.04 [2] - The weekly manufacturer inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 28,650 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 750; the weekly trader inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 4,520 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 340 [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 73.67%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.95; the weekly operating rate of domestic all - steel tires is 65.58%, with a week - on - week increase of 1.06 [2] - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.14 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 11; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 60.25 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 219 [2] - The weekly inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong is 40.34 days, with a week - on - week increase of 0.39; the weekly inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong is 45.26 days, with a week - on - week increase of 0.09 [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of October 30, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 72.12%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.72 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.61 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises is 65.34%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.53 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.15 percentage points [2] - In October 2025, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber output is 13.76 million tons, an increase of 0.72 million tons from last month, a month - on - month increase of 5.52% and a year - on - year increase of 24.07%. The capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber in October is 71.39%, an increase of 1.46 percentage points from the previous period and an increase of 10.93 percentage points from the same period last year. The output and capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber have slightly declined [2] - As of October 30, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber inventory is 3.09 million tons, a decrease of 0.23 million tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 6.90% [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The new supply of natural rubber is expected to increase, but weather factors may affect the tapping progress. The demand side does not seem to be the focus of trading. Currently, the rubber price has returned to a relatively reasonable level, and considering the expected inventory accumulation in the later period, the overall upward driving force is weak [3][63]. - The cost - side supply of synthetic rubber is abundant, and the supply - demand gap of butadiene is expected to gradually widen from October to November. The profit of butadiene rubber is in a loss state, with high - level production and inventory. The annual capacity growth rate of butadiene rubber is 9%, and the inventory remains high [4][65][66]. - The strategy is to dynamically intervene in buying natural rubber and selling synthetic rubber, while paying attention to risk points such as tariff policies, device commissioning and maintenance changes, extreme weather in major producing areas, oil price fluctuations, and the macro - economy [5][67]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Rubber Market Review in October 2025 - Natural rubber: The rubber market showed a "V" - shaped trend in October. It continued to decline in the first and middle of the month, possibly due to the slightly unexpected rubber reserve release at the end of September and the expected increase in supply in October. The market rose in the later period due to the warming of macro - sentiment. As of October 29, the closing price of the RU main contract was 15,625 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan/ton (+1.6%) for the month, and the closing price of the NR main contract was 12,720 yuan/ton, up 290 yuan/ton (+2.3%) for the month [10]. - Synthetic rubber: It fluctuated following natural rubber but was weaker than natural rubber. As of October 29, the closing price of the BR main contract was 10,795 yuan/ton, down 545 yuan/ton (-4.8%) for the month [10]. 3.2 Supply Side 3.2.1 Natural Rubber: Southeast Asian New Rubber Supply May Fall Short of Expectations - Thailand: It may have entered a stable production - decline cycle. Although there is an expectation of increased production in the fourth - quarter peak season, the current new rubber supply is affected by rainy weather. The rainfall in the northeastern part of Thailand is expected to decrease seasonally, but the production there may not increase significantly. The southern part is approaching the rainfall peak, which may still affect tapping. In August 2025, Thailand's rubber production was 458,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2,000 tons (-0.4%). From May to August, the production was 1.585 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 24,600 tons (-1.5%) [13][14]. - Other major ANRPC members: Indonesia's production has increased this year, with 189,000 tons in August 2025, a month - on - month decrease of 8,500 tons (-4.3%), and a cumulative export of 1.141 million tons of natural rubber as of August 2025, a year - on - year increase of 86,300 tons (+8%). Vietnam is expected to have a slight production decrease, with 140,500 tons in August 2025, the same as the previous month, and a production of 455,500 tons from May to August, a year - on - year decrease of 50,000 tons (-10%) [15]. - China: Affected by Typhoon "Mujigae" in 2024, about 230,000 mu of rubber plantations in Hainan were damaged. In August 2025, China's production was 113,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12,000 tons (+12%). The rainfall in Yunnan and Hainan in October was lower than that of the previous year. African rubber is rising, with Cote d'Ivoire's cumulative exports reaching 1.05 million tons as of August 2025, a year - on - year increase of 130,000 tons (+14%) [16]. 3.2.2 Natural Rubber Import: Affected by Overseas Production Increase and EUDR Delay - Import volume is seasonally increasing with the growth of overseas output. Future imports need to pay close attention to industry policies such as EUDR, China - Thailand zero - tariff policy, and zero - tariff policy with 53 African diplomatic countries. The appreciation of the RMB against the Thai baht may put pressure on imports. EUDR implementation has been postponed. In September, 595,900 tons of rubber were imported, a month - on - month increase of 75,000 tons (+14%), higher than the average of the past five years (550,000 tons). From January to September, the cumulative import was 4.7172 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 19.65% [21][22][24]. 3.2.3 Butadiene Rubber: High Inventory - The supply - demand gap of butadiene is expected to gradually widen from November to December. The supply side includes: a certain repair of naphtha cracking ethylene profit but still in a loss state, with the weekly production rate dropping to a seasonal low due to maintenance from October to November; a 14% expected capacity growth rate of butadiene in 2025, with the production of 200,000 tons from Jilin Petrochemical and 200,000 tons from Yulong Petrochemical put into production in August - September expected to be released, and 180,000 tons from Guangxi Petrochemical planned to be put into production in the fourth quarter; although South Korea has decided to cut 25% of its naphtha cracking capacity, the import volume from South Korea has not significantly decreased, and the import volume from Europe has increased significantly. The demand side focuses on the commissioning progress of SBS and ABS. The inventory of butadiene rubber has been high this year, with Yulong Petrochemical's 150,000 - ton production capacity put into production and gradually ramping up at the beginning of the year, and a 50,000 - ton/year low - cis butadiene rubber production device of a certain petrochemical expected to start trial production in late October [37]. 3.3 Demand Side: Domestic Demand is Good, Export is Acceptable, but Trade Frictions Need Continuous Attention - Overseas demand: From January to August, EU car registrations were 7.169 million, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 0.2%, and US car sales were 1.91 million, a year - on - year decrease of 5%. - Direct demand: The performance of all - steel tires is good. From January to September, the domestic production of semi - steel tires was 432 million, a year - on - year decrease of 0.96%; the production of all - steel tires was 95.87 million, a year - on - year increase of 0.8%. The start - up rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises was lower than that of the previous year, and the overall enterprise inventory was high. The weekly start - up rate of all - steel tires was at a medium - to - high level in the past five years, and the inventory was at a seasonal low. - Tire export: In September, the export volume of new pneumatic tires was 760,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 80,000 tons. The cumulative export from January to September was 7.02 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.8%, with the growth rate remaining the same as the previous month. The export of new pneumatic rubber tires for motor cars was 2.5 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.3%, with the growth rate decreasing by 0.4% compared to the previous month. The export of new pneumatic rubber tires for trucks and buses was 3.63 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.7%, with the growth rate increasing by 0.3% compared to the previous month. Continuous attention should be paid to the impact of trade frictions [43]. - Terminal market: From January to September, passenger car sales were 21.2126 million, a year - on - year increase of 13.6%, with the growth rate remaining the same as the previous month. Commercial vehicle sales were 3.1118 million, a year - on - year increase of 7.6%, with the growth rate increasing by 1.4% compared to the previous month. The sales of new - energy vehicles in China continued to grow, especially the sales of pure - electric heavy - duty trucks increased rapidly. From January to September 2025, the sales of new - energy heavy - duty trucks were 135,300, a year - on - year increase of 179%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of highway freight turnover was 4.1%, with the growth rate increasing by 0.2% compared to the previous month [44]. 3.4 Inventory: Synthetic Rubber Inventory is High, and Natural Rubber May Have an Inventory Accumulation Expectation - Natural rubber: As of October 26, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.039 million tons, a decrease of about 49,000 tons from the end of the previous month. The dark - colored rubber inventory was 639,000 tons, a decrease of about 22,000 tons, and the light - colored rubber inventory was 400,000 tons, a decrease of about 27,000 tons. The 20 - number rubber futures inventory was 43,800 tons, an increase of about 9,000 tons from the end of the previous month. The Shanghai rubber futures inventory was 123,300 tons, a decrease of about 26,000 tons from the end of the previous month, reaching a seasonal low [56]. - Synthetic rubber: The butadiene rubber enterprise inventory increased to 28,600 tons, and the trader inventory decreased to 4,500 tons. The total was still at a relatively high seasonal level. The BR futures inventory was 8,900 tons, a decrease of 300 tons for the month. The total inventory of styrene - butadiene rubber enterprises and traders was about 24,000 tons, at a seasonal medium level [56][57]. 3.5 Market Outlook - Natural rubber: The supply side has an unchanged expectation of increased production, but the tapping progress may be affected by rainy weather in domestic and overseas producing areas. The Southeast Asian producing areas, mainly Thailand, may have a supply increase falling short of expectations. The import is seasonally recovering, but there may be some pressure due to the postponed implementation of EUDR and the appreciation of the RMB against the Thai baht. The demand side shows good domestic demand, with relatively good performance of heavy - duty trucks and all - steel tires, but tire exports face challenges due to continuous international trade frictions. Overall, although there is an expectation of increased new rubber supply, factors such as weather may still affect the supply progress. The demand side does not seem to be the focus of trading. Currently, the rubber price has returned to a relatively reasonable level, and considering the expected inventory accumulation in the later period, the upward driving force is weak [63]. - Synthetic rubber: The cost - side supply of butadiene is abundant, and the supply - demand gap from October to November is expected to gradually widen, which may or may not affect the price of natural rubber. Butadiene rubber has a loss in profit, high - level production, and high inventory, with a 9% annual capacity growth rate and continuously high inventory [4][65][66].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [3] - Report Date: October 30, 2025 [3] Group 2: BR (Butadiene Rubber) Data Futures - BR主力合约(12) price on October 29 was 10,795, down 10 from the previous day and 325 from the previous week [4] - Open interest on October 29 was 52,216, up 3,562 from the previous day and down 17,656 from the previous week [4] - Trading volume on October 29 was 195,650, up 83,214 from the previous day and 96,252 from the previous week [4] - Warehouse receipt quantity on October 29 was 8,580, unchanged from the previous day and down 340 from the previous week [4] - Long - short ratio on October 29 was 30.43, up 2 from the previous day and down 9 from the previous week [4] Basis/Spread - BR basis on October 29 was 5, down 140 from the previous day and up 25 from the previous week [4] - Styrene - butadiene basis on October 29 was 405, down 140 from the previous day and up 25 from the previous week [4] - 12 - 01 spread on October 29 was 25, up 5 from the previous day and unchanged from the previous week [4] - 01 - 02 spread on October 29 was - 20, down 10 from the previous day and down 30 from the previous week [4] - RU - BR spread on October 29 was 4,830, up 275 from the previous day and 705 from the previous week [4] - NR - BR spread on October 29 was 1,925, up 200 from the previous day and 615 from the previous week [4] Spot - Shandong market price on October 29 was 10,800, down 150 from the previous day and 300 from the previous week [4] - Chuanhua market price on October 29 was 10,700, down 200 from the previous day and 250 from the previous week [4] - Qilu ex - factory price on October 29 was 11,000, unchanged from the previous day and down 200 from the previous week [4] - CFR Northeast Asia price on October 29 was 1,450, down 25 from the previous day and 25 from the previous week [4] - CFR Southeast Asia price on October 29 was 1,700, unchanged from the previous day and the previous week [4] Profit - Spot processing profit on October 29 was 797, up 156 from the previous day and 516 from the previous week [4] - Import profit on October 29 was - 1,337, up 51 from the previous day and down 59 from the previous week [4] - Export profit on October 29 was 2,026, up 130 from the previous day and 223 from the previous week [4] Group 3: BD (Butadiene) Data Spot - Shandong market price on October 29 was 7,650, down 300 from the previous day and 800 from the previous week [4] - Jiangsu market price on October 29 was 7,600, down 300 from the previous day and 850 from the previous week [4] - Yangzi ex - factory price on October 29 was 7,900, down 300 from the previous day and 700 from the previous week [4] - CFR China price on October 29 was 940, down 10 from the previous day and 35 from the previous week [4] Profit - Carbon four extraction profit data for October 29 is not available [4] - Butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit on October 29 was - 934, down 300 from the previous day and 780 from the previous week [4] - Import profit on October 29 was - 91, down 219 from the previous day and 543 from the previous week [4] - Export profit on October 29 was - 444, up 190 from the previous day and 6 from the previous week [4] Group 4: Other Production Profits - Styrene - butadiene production profit on October 29 was 1,213, up 250 from the previous day and 375 from the previous week [4] - ABS production profit on October 29 was 66, up 36 from the previous day and 145 from the previous week [4] - SBS production profit data for October 29 is incomplete [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The domestic butadiene market continues to decline, hitting a new low for the year. The accelerated decline in recent market conditions has made downstream buyers more cautious, and the limited volume of transactions at low - price points has limited support for the overall market. Due to the decline in downstream futures and a bearish outlook for the later market, buying intentions are low [2]. - The price of high - cis butadiene rubber has decreased, with market offers falling further. Traders' offer sentiment is poor, and there is still pressure on transaction follow - up. Terminal buyers are cautious, and the focus of actual transactions is at the lower end of the range [3]. - In the short term, the weak operation of butadiene has driven down the dynamic valuation range of butadiene rubber. Butadiene rubber is gradually entering a pattern of high production, high inventory, and high profit, and is expected to have a wide - range volatile pattern of capital games in the short term, with the medium - term price center gradually moving downward [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the butadiene rubber main contract (December contract) decreased by 190 yuan/ton to 10,805 yuan/ton. Trading volume decreased by 19,544 lots to 112,436 lots, open interest decreased by 967 lots to 48,651 lots, and turnover decreased by 117,842 ten - thousand yuan to 611,228 ten - thousand yuan [1]. - **Spread Data**: The basis (Shandong butadiene - futures main contract) increased by 140 to 195, and the monthly spread (BR11 - BR12, private enterprise) remained unchanged at 60. The prices of butadiene rubber in North China, East China, and South China (private enterprises) decreased by 100 yuan/ton, 50 yuan/ton, and 50 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - **Spot Market**: The market price of Shandong butadiene (delivery product) decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 11,000 yuan/ton. The prices of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber (models 1502 and 1712) decreased by 100 yuan/ton each. The mainstream prices of butadiene in Jiangsu and Shandong decreased by 200 yuan/ton and 225 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The butadiene rubber operating rate remained unchanged at 69.0377%. The theoretical full cost of butadiene rubber decreased by 206 yuan/ton to 10,946 yuan/ton, and the profit decreased by 97 yuan/ton to 54 yuan/ton [1]. Industry News - The domestic butadiene market continues to decline, with prices in Shandong's Luzhong area around 7900 - 8000 yuan/ton and in East China's ex - tank self - pick - up around 7650 - 7750 yuan/ton [2]. - Taking the Daqing BR9000 in Shandong as a benchmark, the price of high - cis butadiene rubber closed at 10,950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from the previous day, exceeding the morning's expectations. The market offer has declined further, and the reference price of private butadiene rubber in the northern region is 10,600 yuan/ton [3]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of synthetic rubber is - 1, indicating a bearish view [3].