Economic Performance - In November, industrial added value increased by 4.8% year-on-year, which is 0.1 percentage points lower than October and 1.4 percentage points lower than the same period last year[4] - Retail sales of consumer goods grew by 1.3% year-on-year in November, marking the sixth consecutive month of decline, and was below market expectations[12] - Fixed asset investment showed a cumulative year-on-year decline of 2.6% from January to November, with private fixed asset investment down by 5.3%[21] Sector Analysis - Manufacturing investment from January to November saw a cumulative year-on-year increase of 1.9%, while infrastructure investment decreased by 1.1% and real estate investment fell by 15.9%[23] - High-tech industries maintained strong performance, with a cumulative year-on-year growth of 9.2% in industrial added value from January to November[2] - Real estate new construction area decreased by 20.5% year-on-year, with sales area down by 7.8% and sales revenue down by 11.1%[28] Consumer Behavior - The decline in retail sales was particularly pronounced in post-real estate consumption categories such as furniture and home appliances, which saw significant drops[15] - Online retail accounted for 31.7% of total retail sales, with a cumulative year-on-year growth of 9.1%[14] Policy Recommendations - The macroeconomic policy should consider early implementation to address potential uncertainties in the first quarter of 2026, especially given the late timing of the Spring Festival[32] - Short-term focus on monetary easing measures such as interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions is recommended[32] Risks - Potential risks include a resurgence of global inflation, a faster-than-expected economic slowdown in Europe and the U.S., and increasing international geopolitical complexities[32]

2025 年 12 月 15 日 总量研究 主要指标进一步回落 要点 事件： 2025 年 12 月 15 日，国家统计局公布 2025 年 11 月经济数据：1）11 月规模以 上工业增加值同比增长 4.8%，前值为增长 4.9%；2）1-11 月固定资产投资累计 同比下降 2.6%，前值为下降 1.7%；3）11 月社会消费品零售总额同比增长 1.3%， 前值为增长 2.9%。 点评： 规模以上工业生产同比增速下降但环比增速上升。11 月规模以上工业增加值同 比增长 4.8%，涨幅较 10 月下降 0.1 个百分点。从环比看，2025 年 11 月份规 模以上工业增加值环比增速为+0.44%，较 10 月有所上升。从结构来看，三大门 类中，相对于上月，2025 年 11 月采矿业增加值同比增速上升，但制造业，电力、 热力、燃气及水生产和供应业增加值同比增速则下降。 1-11 月固定资产投资累计同比降幅扩大，但 11 月环比降幅收窄。2025 年 1-11 月固定资产投资累计同比增速为-2.6%，降幅扩大。从环比增速来观察，11 月固 定资产投资环比增速为-1.03%，环比降幅收窄。从结构上来说，11 月房 ...

Economic Overview - In November, the national economy continued to show a stable and progressive development trend, with a focus on implementing proactive macro policies and promoting high-quality development [2][6] - The total grain production for the year is expected to exceed 1.4 trillion jin, with a year-on-year increase of 1.2% [2] Industrial Production - The industrial added value above designated size increased by 4.8% year-on-year in November, with a month-on-month increase of 0.44% [3] - The equipment manufacturing industry and high-tech manufacturing industry saw significant growth, with increases of 7.7% and 8.4% respectively [3] - The production of 3D printing equipment, industrial robots, and new energy vehicles grew by 100.5%, 20.6%, and 17.0% year-on-year respectively [3] Retail Sales - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 43,898 billion yuan in November, a year-on-year increase of 1.3% [4] - Online retail sales amounted to 144,582 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 9.1%, and physical goods online retail sales accounted for 25.9% of total retail sales [4] - Service retail sales grew by 5.4% year-on-year, with significant growth in cultural, sports, and travel services [4] Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 2.6% year-on-year from January to November, while manufacturing investment increased by 1.9% [5] - Infrastructure investment fell by 1.1%, and real estate development investment dropped by 15.9% [5] - Investment in high-tech industries, such as information services and aerospace manufacturing, saw significant increases of 29.6% and 19.7% respectively [5] Policy Impact - A series of proactive macro policies have effectively supported stable economic operations, leading to expanded consumer demand and increased key investments [7][8] - The implementation of consumption upgrade policies has resulted in significant sales growth in home appliances and communication equipment [8] - The industrial production growth was supported by policies promoting market demand and industrial upgrades [8] Price Trends - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.7% year-on-year in November, marking a continuous recovery trend [9] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, indicating a narrowing decline trend since August [10][11] Long-term Economic Outlook - The resilience of the economy remains strong, with macro policies providing robust support and new growth drivers emerging [12][13] - The expansion of market demand and the continuous growth of new economic drivers are expected to positively impact economic development [12][14] - The upcoming economic policies aim to enhance domestic demand and optimize supply, ensuring a solid foundation for future growth [14]

央视网消息：12月15日，国务院新闻办公室举行新闻发布会，国家统计局相关负责人介绍，今年11月 份，工业生产稳定增长，装备制造业和高技术制造业增长较快。 国家统计局新闻发言人付凌晖介绍，1—11月份，全国规模以上工业增加值同比增长6.0%。11月份，分 三大门类看，采矿业增加值同比增长6.3%，制造业增长4.6%，电力、热力、燃气及水生产和供应业增 长4.3%。装备制造业增加值同比增长7.7%，高技术制造业增加值增长8.4%，分别快于全部规模以上工 业增加值2.9和3.6个百分点。 国家统计局：11月全国服务业生产指数同比增4.2% 发布会上，国家统计局新闻发言人介绍，今年11月份，服务业平稳增长，现代服务业发展向好。 国家统计局：前11个月社会消费品零售总额同比增长4% 今年以来，提振消费专项行动深入实施，消费品以旧换新政策发力显效，促进了消费规模扩大，消费结 构升级、消费动能焕新，带动了消费潜能释放。 付凌晖介绍，1—11月份，社会消费品零售总额同比增长4%，增速不仅快于上年同期，也快于上年全 年。1—11月份，服务零售额同比增长5.4%，增速比上月加快0.1个百分点，连续3个月回升，而且快于 商品零售额 ...

第二产业中，工业投资同比增长4.0%。其中，采矿业投资增长4.0%，制造业投资增长1.9%，电力、热 力、燃气及水生产和供应业投资增长10.7%。 第三产业中，基础设施投资（不含电力、热力、燃气及水生产和供应业）同比下降1.1%。其中，管道 运输业投资增长16.8%，水上运输业投资增长8.9%，铁路运输业投资增长2.7%。 分地区看，东部地区投资同比下降6.6%，中部地区投资下降1.7%，西部地区投资下降0.2%，东北地区 投资下降14.0%。 1-11月全国固定资产投资降幅较前值进一步扩大，不过第二产业中工业投资同比增长4.0%，其中采矿业 投资增长4.0%，制造业投资增长1.9%，电力、热力、燃气及水生产和供应业投资增长10.7%。 国家统计局12月15日数据显示，2025年1—11月份，全国固定资产投资（不含农户）444035亿元，同比 下降2.6%。其中，民间固定资产投资同比下降5.3%。从环比看，11月份固定资产投资（不含农户）下 降1.03%。 分产业看，第一产业投资8770亿元，同比增长2.7%；第二产业投资162243亿元，增长3.9%；第三产业 投资273022亿元，下降6.3%。 市场有风 ...

Core Insights - The overall economic operation in China remains stable with a focus on high-quality development and the implementation of proactive macro policies [1] Industrial Production - In November, the industrial added value above designated size increased by 4.8% year-on-year and 0.44% month-on-month [2] - By sector, mining increased by 6.3%, manufacturing by 4.6%, and electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply by 4.3% [2] - High-tech manufacturing saw an 8.4% increase, outpacing the overall industrial growth by 3.6 percentage points [2] - The profit of industrial enterprises above designated size totaled 59,503 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.9% for the first ten months [2] Service Sector - The service production index grew by 4.2% year-on-year in November [3] - Key sectors such as information transmission, software, and IT services grew by 12.9%, while financial services increased by 5.1% [3] - The business activity index for services was at 49.5, indicating a stable outlook [3] Market Sales - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 43,898 billion yuan in November, a year-on-year increase of 1.3% [4] - Online retail sales amounted to 144,582 billion yuan, growing by 9.1% year-on-year [4] - The retail sales of essential and some upgraded goods showed significant growth, with food and communication equipment sales increasing by 6.1% and 20.6%, respectively [4] Investment Trends - From January to November, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) was 444,035 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.6% [5] - Manufacturing investment grew by 1.9%, while real estate development investment fell by 15.9% [5] - High-tech industries, particularly information services and aerospace manufacturing, saw investment growth of 29.6% and 19.7%, respectively [6] Employment Situation - The urban surveyed unemployment rate averaged 5.2% from January to November, with November's rate at 5.1% [7] - The average weekly working hours for employees in enterprises was 48.6 hours [7]

Core Insights - National Bureau of Statistics reported a decline in fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) by 2.6% year-on-year for the first 11 months, totaling 444,035 billion yuan [2] - Private fixed asset investment decreased by 5.3% year-on-year [2] Investment by Industry - First industry investment reached 8,770 billion yuan, growing by 2.7% year-on-year [2] - Second industry investment totaled 162,243 billion yuan, with a growth of 3.9% [2] - Third industry investment was 273,022 billion yuan, showing a decline of 6.3% year-on-year [2] - Within the second industry, industrial investment grew by 4.0%, with mining and manufacturing investments increasing by 4.0% and 1.9% respectively, while investment in electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply surged by 10.7% [2] - In the third industry, infrastructure investment (excluding electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply) fell by 1.1% [2] - Specific sectors within infrastructure saw growth, including pipeline transportation (16.8%), water transportation (8.9%), and railway transportation (2.7%) [2] Regional Investment Trends - Eastern region investment decreased by 6.6% year-on-year [2] - Central region investment declined by 1.7% [2] - Western region investment saw a minor decline of 0.2% [2] - Northeastern region investment experienced a significant drop of 14.0% [2] Investment by Registration Type - Domestic enterprises' fixed asset investment fell by 2.6% year-on-year [2] - Investment from Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan enterprises decreased by 2.2% [2] - Foreign enterprises' fixed asset investment saw a substantial decline of 14.1% [2]

粮食播种面积增加、单产提高。全国粮食播种面积17.91亿亩，比上年增加134.8万亩，增长0.1%；粮食 单产399.1公斤/亩，每亩产量比上年增加4.4公斤，增长1.1%。 11月份，全国规模以上工业增加值同比增长4.8%，环比增长0.44%。分三大门类看，采矿业增加值同比 增长6.3%，制造业增长4.6%，电力、热力、燃气及水生产和供应业增长4.3%。 "11月份国民经济延续稳中有进发展态势。"12月15日，在国新办新闻发布会上，国家统计局新闻发言 人、总经济师、国民经济综合统计司司长付凌晖介绍，生产供给基本平稳，就业形势总体稳定，市场价 格继续改善，新质生产力稳步发展，经济运行延续总体平稳、稳中有进发展态势。 1.4万亿斤：全年粮食实现丰收 4.8%：工业生产稳定增长 全年全国粮食产量14298亿斤，比上年增加167.5亿斤，增长1.2%，稳定在1.4万亿斤以上。 装备制造业增加值同比增长7.7%，高技术制造业增加值增长8.4%。3D打印设备、工业机器人、新能源 汽车产品产量同比分别增长100.5%、20.6%、17.0%。 1至11月份，全国规模以上工业增加值同比增长6.0%。1至10月份，全国规模以 ...

据国家统计局，11月份，在以习近平同志为核心的党中央坚强领导下，各地区各部门认真贯彻落实党中 央、国务院决策部署，坚持稳中求进工作总基调，深入实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，纵深推进全国统 一大市场建设，着力推动高质量发展，生产供给基本平稳，就业形势总体稳定，市场价格继续改善，新 质生产力稳步发展，经济运行延续总体平稳、稳中有进发展态势。 一、全年粮食实现丰收，稳定在1.4万亿斤以上 全年全国粮食产量14298亿斤，比上年增加167.5亿斤，增长1.2%，稳定在1.4万亿斤以上。其中，秋粮 产量10732亿斤，比上年增加163.6亿斤，增长1.5%。全国谷物产量13204亿斤，比上年增加158.4亿斤， 增长1.2%。粮食播种面积增加、单产提高。全国粮食播种面积17.91亿亩，比上年增加134.8万亩，增长 0.1%；粮食单产399.1公斤/亩，每亩产量比上年增加4.4公斤，增长1.1%。 二、工业生产稳定增长，装备制造业和高技术制造业增长较快 11月份，全国规模以上工业增加值同比增长4.8%，环比增长0.44%。分三大门类看，采矿业增加值同比 增长6.3%，制造业增长4.6%，电力、热力、燃气及水生产和供应业增 ...

Core Insights - National fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) for January to November 2025 reached 444,035 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year decline of 2.6% (on a comparable basis) [1] - Private fixed asset investment saw a year-on-year decrease of 5.3% [1] Investment by Industry - First industry investment totaled 8,770 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.7% [3] - Second industry investment amounted to 162,243 billion yuan, showing a growth of 3.9% [3] - Third industry investment reached 273,022 billion yuan, experiencing a decline of 6.3% [3] - Within the second industry, industrial investment grew by 4.0%, with mining investment also increasing by 4.0%, manufacturing investment rising by 1.9%, and investment in electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply increasing by 10.7% [3] - In the third industry, infrastructure investment (excluding electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply) decreased by 1.1%, while pipeline transportation investment grew by 16.8%, water transportation investment increased by 8.9%, and railway transportation investment rose by 2.7% [3] Regional Investment Trends - Investment in the eastern region declined by 6.6%, while the central region saw a decrease of 1.7%, the western region experienced a decline of 0.2%, and the northeastern region faced a significant drop of 14.0% [3] Investment by Registration Type - Domestic enterprises' fixed asset investment fell by 2.6%, while investment from Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan enterprises decreased by 2.2%, and foreign enterprises' fixed asset investment dropped by 14.1% [3]