Group 1 - Hong Kong's offshore financial market is closely linked to liquidity conditions [1] - In November, the average daily trading volume of Hong Kong stocks was HKD 230.7 billion, a decrease of approximately 16% compared to October [3] - Trading volume continued to decline in December, with a further month-on-month drop of about 13%, marking a nearly 40% decrease from the peak in September [3]

一、美国的回应与华尔街的忧虑 探讨中国逐步减持美国国债及其引发的美国反应，实则触及国际经济与地缘政治复杂交织的深层博弈。理解当前局势及未来走向，需从多维度审视： 面对中国持续减持美债，美国并非毫无察觉。美国财政部官员，甚至包括财长耶伦，多次公开表达与中国在经济金融领域保持沟通与合作的意愿，强调中国 持有美债的重要性。这一姿态，与过去几年美国对华强硬金融措辞形成鲜明对比，实则暴露出美国的"急"。 中国减持美债，并非单纯的"抛售甩卖"，而是经过多年深思熟虑的结构性调整，背后蕴含多重战略考量： 外汇储备多元化： 降低对外汇储备中美元资产的过度依赖，是大型经济体进行理性风险管理的必然选择。通过分散投资于其他主权债券、黄金等资产，中 国可以增强外汇储备的安全性和稳定性。 地缘政治与金融安全： 中美战略竞争加剧，美国多次将美元金融体系"武器化"（如冻结俄罗斯外汇储备），这无疑给所有持有大量美元资产的国家敲响了 警钟。减持美债是中国应对潜在金融制裁风险的预防性措施。 市场与收益率因素： 美联储加息周期下，美债价格下跌、收益率波动，减持部分美债也是出于投资组合管理的市场行为。 支撑人民币汇率： 在人民币面临贬值压力时，出售美 ...

新华社北京12月21日电 《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》提 出："稳步发展期货、衍生品和资产证券化。"这是建立健全结构合理的金融市场体系、加快建设金融强 国的必要举措，有利于丰富金融产品、提升我国金融市场完备性，增强金融服务实体经济和风险管理能 力，促进优化资源配置。 资产证券化具有盘活存量资产、稳定宏观杠杆率、优化资产负债结构、拓宽融资渠道等重要功能。一是 可将存量资产转化成流动性强的金融产品，打通信贷市场、货币市场和资本市场的连接通道，有助于提 升金融市场深度，满足投资者需求。二是便利金融机构在不扩表的同时提供融资，有助于稳杠杆、降杠 杆，引导发展方式从债务驱动转向资产驱动。三是商业银行通过信贷资产证券化可降低风险加权资产总 额，有助于缓解资本补充压力，增强信贷投放能力，优化信贷结构。四是通过资产证券化结构设计和增 信安排，有助于拓宽民营企业和中小微企业融资渠道，促进普惠金融发展。2014年以来，我国资产证券 化市场进入常态化发展阶段，年发行量已达2万亿元左右，但底层法律关系不够清晰、发行管理成本偏 高、投资者结构相对单一、二级市场流动性偏低等问题，影响了市场发展的深度。 我 ...

Group 1 - Lang Xianping is a prominent scholar and economist from Taiwan, known for his expertise in corporate governance and finance, with a PhD from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania [2] - He has held positions at several top international business schools and is currently a chief professor at the Chinese University of Hong Kong [2] - Lang is recognized for his critical views on state-owned enterprises in China, particularly regarding asset loss during property rights reforms, which has garnered significant public attention [2] Group 2 - Lang's research focuses on three main areas: corporate governance, financial market operations, and macroeconomic analysis [3] - In corporate governance, he has explored issues such as regulation, project financing, and mergers and acquisitions, introducing the concept of "new imperialism in China" to discuss foreign capital's strategic intentions [3] - His insights into financial markets provide valuable references for investors, particularly regarding stock and real estate market trends [3] Group 3 - Lang's speeches cover a wide range of topics, including China's economic reforms, real estate, and stock market investments, often providing constructive policy suggestions [4] - He has analyzed the achievements and challenges of China's reform and opening-up, emphasizing the correct direction for future reforms [4] - His unique speaking style combines vivid language and case studies, making complex economic principles accessible to the audience [4] Group 4 - Lang is also concerned with social issues, addressing topics like education, employment, and healthcare, and has proposed a "universal basic income" policy to encourage young people to marry and have children [5] - This policy aims to alleviate the challenges posed by an aging population in China [5] Group 5 - In 2025, Lang continues to be active in both academic research and social activities, publishing papers and books, including one on the impact of digital currency on future financial systems [6] - He participates in various social events, providing insights on economic conditions and investment opportunities in real estate and stock markets [6] - Lang has also transitioned into the self-media space, creating content on platforms like Douyin and Xiaohongshu, and offering online courses for career development [6]

Group 1 - Beijing's financial industry accounts for approximately half of the national total assets, with leading indicators in the number of financial institutions, employees, insurance density, and depth [1] - As of the end of Q3, the total loan balance of Beijing's financial "five major articles" reached 6.8 trillion yuan, with significant achievements in the capital market and the establishment of various financial centers [1] - The asset management scale of Beijing's asset management institutions is about 48 trillion yuan, representing nearly 30% of the national total, indicating strong market potential and demand [2] Group 2 - The city aims to enhance the financial industry's steady development by improving service capabilities and implementing high-quality financial planning for the "14th Five-Year Plan" [2] - Financial resources will be directed towards new productive forces and urban governance, promoting the integration of finance and technology to support innovation [3] - The Beijing Stock Exchange will receive support for deepening reforms and expanding its role in serving innovative small and medium-sized enterprises [3] Group 3 - The city is focused on expanding financial openness and advancing the construction of financial zones, aiming for more international collaboration and experience sharing [3] - The urban sub-center is positioned as a global wealth management center, continuously attracting high-quality wealth management institutions and optimizing the industry ecosystem [4] - There will be further support for the urban sub-center to leverage its advantages in wealth management products and services through reform and innovation [4]

Core Viewpoint - U.S. Futures and global markets experienced a broad increase following President Trump's decision to impose a blockade on sanctioned oil tankers entering and leaving Venezuela [1] Group 1 - The blockade is expected to impact the flow of oil from Venezuela, a country already facing significant economic challenges [1] - This action may lead to increased oil prices globally due to reduced supply from Venezuela [1] - The market response indicates investor optimism regarding potential changes in oil supply dynamics [1]

市场回顾：谨慎的前奏 周一交易日收官时，美国主要股指小幅下挫，市场参与者在今日就业报告发布前保持观望。标普500指数下跌0.2%至6,816点，道琼斯工业平均指数下跌0.1% 至48,416点，纳斯达克100指数下跌0.5%至25,067点。 美国国债方面，昨日收益率曲线整体保持平稳，但美元指数收盘走弱，技术指标显示其可能进一步下探至97.72附近。 在金融市场传统上的平静期，本周却迎来密集的事件风险，IC平台认为今日公布的美国11月就业报告将成为这场风暴的开端。 美国就业报告发布日：何去何从？ 因去年11月结束的史上最长政府停摆导致多项官方数据延迟发布，今日公布的就业报告将合并10月与11月数据。市场预期区间跨度极大（15万-2万），显示 分析师信心不足，中位数预测值约为5万个就业岗位，较9月的11.9万大幅下滑。 值得注意的是，根据LSEG的预测分布显示，仅有少数经济学家预期就业数据将出现负增长，这为可能出现的意外（可交易性）结果留下了空间。因此，若 今日数据为负值，可能导致收益率下降和美元抛售。 若失业率高于预期（中位数预测维持4.4%不变），则可能加剧美元下行压力。美联储最新经济展望报告预测失业率为4 ...

人民财讯12月16日电，恒生指数收跌1.54%，恒生科技指数跌1.74%。果下科技上市首日涨超117%。黄 金股下跌，紫金黄金国际跌6%，赤峰黄金（600988）跌超5%，珠峰黄金跌超3%。 ...

| | | | | | | | 大类资产早报 | | | 研究中心宏观团队 2025/12/16 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 全 球 资 产 市 场 表 现 | | | | | | | | | | 主要经济体10年期国债 | | | | | | | | | | 美国 | | 英国 | 法国 | 德国 | 意大利 | 西班牙 | 瑞士 | 希腊 | | 最新 | 4.174 | 4.495 | 3.564 | 2.852 | 3.571 | 3.299 | 0.271 | 3.447 | | 日本 | | 巴西 | 中国 | 韩国 | 澳大利亚 | 新西兰 | | | | 最新 | 1.952 | 6.150 | 1.854 | - | 4.726 | 4.494 | | | | 主要经济体2年期国债 | | | | | | | | | | 美国 | | 英国 | 德国 | 日本 | 意大利 | 中国（1Y收益 率） | 韩国 | 澳大利亚 | | 最新 | 3.503 | 3.746 | 2.149 | 1.062 ...

12月15日，恒生指数夜期(12月)开市报25674点。截至北京时间17:15，恒指夜期(12月)报25714点，升61 点或0.238%，高水85点，成交量为347张。未平仓合约总数为121591张，未平仓合约净数报39285张。 ...