Macro News - The main gold futures price in Shanghai reported at 774.36 CNY per gram, with an increase of 0.41%. The opening price was 774.6 CNY per gram, with a high of 775.46 CNY and a low of 770.46 CNY [1] - Recent developments indicate that tariff negotiations between the US and Europe are accelerating, with the automotive sector being a key focus for the EU. Former Brazilian President Bolsonaro may request Trump to lift tariffs on Brazil, while current President Lula has stated that if negotiations with the US fail, reciprocal tariffs will be implemented. Chile is seeking exemption from US copper tariffs, and Vietnam has not agreed to Trump's proposed tariff increase from 11% to 20% [1] - Federal Reserve officials have indicated a consideration for interest rate cuts in the fall, with expectations of two cuts this year. There is no evidence of sustained tariff impacts on prices. The probability of the Fed maintaining rates in July is 92.8%, with a 7.2% chance of a 25 basis point cut. For September, the probability of maintaining rates is 29.7%, while the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut is 65.4% [1] Institutional Views - As the deadline for tariff negotiations approaches, market risk aversion has slightly returned, allowing gold to demonstrate resilience. Recent dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials have increased expectations for a rate cut in September, providing support for precious metals. Overall, despite short-term market fluctuations, the substantial increase in US tariffs is expected to lead to a rebound in inflation and economic slowdown, with the "Big and Beautiful" act likely exacerbating US debt and deficit issues. Therefore, support for precious metals is expected to remain resilient, continuing a high-level oscillation trend [1]

据央视新闻7月11日消息，在美国宣布将自8月1日起对巴西商品征收50%关税后，当地时间7月10日，巴 西总统卢拉接受采访时表示，巴西将与美国进行关税谈判，若无效将采取对等反制措施。 当地时间9日，巴西政府称，已告知美国大使馆，将退回美国总统特朗普当天发送的信函，并决定召见 美国驻巴西临时代办埃斯科瓦尔，要求其对信函中关于前总统博索纳罗的部分作出解释。 美国总统特朗普9日对外发布致巴西总统卢拉的信函，除了威胁将对进口自巴西的产品征收50%的关税 外，他还在信函中宣称，"卢拉正在对巴西前总统博索纳罗展开政治迫害，应立即停止"。对此，巴西总 统卢拉9日表示，巴西不会接受被任何人控制，对于美国单方面宣布提高巴西出口产品的关税，巴西将 予以回应。 巴西前总统博索纳罗目前正在接受巴西最高法院的调查。博索纳罗在2022年10月的总统选举中落败。 2023年1月8日，部分博索纳罗支持者冲击巴西国会、总统府和联邦最高法院，造成严重破坏。巴西检察 机构指控博索纳罗与多名高级幕僚共同策划政变，试图推动军事干预以推翻选举结果。 图片来源：央视新闻 卢拉表示，巴西将优先尝试进行关税谈判，并就美方单边加征关税措施在世界贸易组织提起诉讼。 ...

智利国家铜业委员会：智利国家铜业公司5月铜产量同比增长16.5%，达到130,100吨。 ...

智利矿业部长：智利寻求免除美国铜关税。 ...

智利矿业部长：智利尚未收到关于铜关税的通知。 ...

智利矿业部长：一旦我们掌握关于美国铜关税的确切信息，将会进行分析。 ...

Group 1: Market Impact - The announcement of a 50% tariff on copper imports by the U.S. President has led to a significant increase in COMEX copper futures, reaching historical highs, while LME copper prices have declined [1] - Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan expect the price gap between COMEX and LME copper futures to widen, with COMEX prices potentially rising further and LME prices declining [2][3] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - JPMorgan predicts that U.S. copper imports will be relatively low for 4 to 5 months post-tariff implementation, leading to a potential shift of refined copper from the U.S. to other global markets, particularly Asia [3] - The anticipated reduction in U.S. copper demand due to high prices may challenge future growth, despite ongoing trends in electrification supporting copper demand [3] Group 3: Company Analysis - JPMorgan identifies several mining companies that may benefit from higher U.S. copper prices, including First Quantum Minerals, Hudbay Minerals, and Taseko Mines, with specific projects and timelines highlighted [4] - Freeport-McMoRan is noted as the largest beneficiary of rising U.S. copper prices, with approximately 75% of its revenue derived from copper, and significant operations in Arizona [4][5] - Southern Copper Corporation is also mentioned as a potential beneficiary, with about 40% of its contracts linked to COMEX, although this may change as clients renegotiate contracts [5]

Core Viewpoint - The announcement of a 50% tariff on copper imports by President Trump is expected to significantly impact the copper market, leading to increased prices and urgent shipping efforts by traders to avoid the tariff's effects [1][2]. Group 1: Tariff Announcement and Market Reaction - President Trump announced a 50% tariff on all copper imports effective August 1, 2025, causing immediate reactions in the copper market [1]. - Following the tariff announcement, copper prices in New York surged, reaching a premium of approximately 25% over the London Metal Exchange (LME) prices, incentivizing traders to expedite shipments to the U.S. [1]. - Traders are scrambling to reroute shipments to Hawaii and Puerto Rico to minimize transportation time and avoid the impending tariff [1][5]. Group 2: Shipping and Inventory Concerns - Estimates suggest that U.S. copper inventories could reach 500,000 tons in the coming weeks, with significant amounts stored in key locations like New Orleans and Panama City, Florida [2]. - Traders are working overtime to manage existing shipments and consider increasing delivery volumes, despite the high tariff rate being above many market expectations [2][3]. - The shipping time from Asia to New Orleans typically exceeds one month, posing a risk for traders sending copper now [3]. Group 3: Trade Dynamics and Pricing - Some traders are willing to pay a premium of nearly $400 per ton over LME prices to secure copper for immediate delivery to the U.S., indicating a high demand for compliant brands for Comex contracts [2]. - The uncertainty surrounding which types of copper will be subject to the new tariffs adds complexity to the trading environment, as previous tariffs had exemptions for goods already in transit [6][7]. - The price differential between New York and London is currently lower than 50%, raising questions about the broad applicability of the new tariff on refined copper imports [7].

Group 1 - The U.S. has announced a 50% tariff on imported copper, effective from August 1, 2025, which will not impact Indian companies due to India's copper supply shortage [2][4] - India is a copper resource-poor country, with copper exports to the U.S. being only about 10,000 tons, according to the International Copper Association [3] - India's strong demand for copper is driven by initiatives in renewable energy and electric vehicles, mitigating the impact of U.S. tariffs [3] Group 2 - A planning document predicts that copper demand will grow sixfold by 2047, with a plan to add 5 million tons of smelting and refining capacity annually by 2030 [5] - India remains a net importer of copper products, necessitating strategic measures across the entire value chain to meet growing demand [6] - In 2023, India imported 1 million tons of copper concentrate, primarily from a few countries [7] Group 3 - Indonesia is the largest exporter of copper ore and concentrate to India, accounting for approximately 27% of imports, followed by Chile (25%) and Peru (14%) [8] - Together, these four countries (Indonesia, Chile, Peru, and Panama) account for about 75% of India's copper concentrate imports [9]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-07-10 关税本身对铜供需暂时不会有根本性改变 市场要闻与重要数据 期货行情： 2025-07-09，沪铜主力合约开于 79590元/吨，收于 78400元/吨，较前一交易日收盘-1.53%，昨日夜盘沪铜主力合 约开于 78,340元/吨，收于 78,330 元/吨，较昨日午后收盘下降0.74%。 现货情况： 据 SMM 讯，昨日铜市呈现震荡下行态势，现货升水收窄至20-120元/吨，均价70元/吨，较前日下跌15元。受美国 拟加征50%铜关税消息影响，沪铜夜盘冲高至80300元后回落，日间持续走低至78750元，最终收报78940元/吨，隔 月价差扩大至360元。现货市场交投有所回暖但整体仍显谨慎，常州地区平水成交，上海市场压价明显，俄罗斯等 非注册品牌贴水达160元/吨。预计在月差走扩和看跌情绪影响下，今日升水将继续承压。 重要资讯汇总： 宏观与地缘方面，今日凌晨，美联储6月会议纪要显示官员对降息看法分化，因官员们在关税对通胀的影响方面观 点不一，大致分为三派：年内降息但排除7月（主流阵营）、全年按兵不动、主张下次会议立即行动。关税政策方 面，欧盟表示目标是在8月1日 ...