1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Macroeconomically, the U.S. government shutdown and intensified China - U.S. game have increased global market risk - aversion, leading to a joint upward movement of gold, silver, and copper. The Fed has different views on future policy paths after the interest - rate cut, while China will implement moderately loose policies and proactive fiscal policies [2]. - Fundamentally, global mine - end supply disturbances have intensified, with some major mining companies lowering their annual production guidance. The growth rate of global mine - end supply this year is less than 1%, and domestic refined copper production has declined. In September, the demand growth of traditional industries in China was limited, while emerging industries maintained a steady copper - using growth rate. Domestic inventories rebounded from a low level, and global inventories continued to increase [2]. - Overall, market risk - aversion demand has increased due to the U.S. trade policy. The Fed has differences in the interest - rate cut rhythm but basically agrees on the direction. Global economic growth remains stable under the background of wide - fiscal policies. China's anti - involution and stable - growth policies are clear. With the intensification of mine - end shortages and the tightening of the domestic supply - demand balance, copper prices are expected to return to the upward channel after shock adjustments in October [2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 2025 September Copper Market Review - In September 2025, copper prices showed a strong upward trend. LME copper rose from around $9,875 to over $10,440, and SHFE copper rose from 79,500 to around 83,800. The Fed's interest - rate cut in September and supply disturbances in major mines supported copper prices. After the National Day, despite the short - term impact of China - U.S. trade frictions, copper prices rebounded quickly [7]. - In September, downstream copper - using industries faced cost pressures due to rising copper prices. The start - up rates of copper cable enterprises and air - conditioning production decreased, while the start - up rates of copper rod and copper foil enterprises in the primary processing industry rebounded. Social inventories remained low, and the spot market supply - demand structure was in a tight balance [9][10]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Analysis 3.2.1 U.S. Government Shutdown and Recurrence of China - U.S. Trade Frictions - The U.S. government shutdown during the National Day may delay the release of important economic data, affecting the Fed's decision - making on the interest - rate cut path. China - U.S. trade frictions have recurred, increasing market risk - aversion [13]. 3.2.2 U.S. Manufacturing Downturn and Eurozone Manufacturing in Contraction - The U.S. September ISM manufacturing PMI was 48.7, remaining in the contraction range. New orders decreased, while production and employment showed some improvement. The eurozone's September manufacturing PMI was 49.5, falling back below the boom - bust line. Germany and France's manufacturing PMIs declined, and the eurozone's economic outlook depends on its overall economic performance [14][16]. 3.2.3 China's Central Bank to Implement Moderately Loose Policies and Industrial Profit Growth - China's central bank will implement moderately loose policies and use proactive fiscal policies to support employment and foreign trade. In August, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 20.4% year - on - year, and the cumulative growth from January to August turned positive for the first time, which is positive for copper prices [17][18]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 Intensified Global Mine - End Supply Disturbances and Lowered Production Expectations of Major Miners - As of the end of September, the spot TC of copper concentrate remained at a relatively low level of around - $40/ton. The growth rate of global copper concentrate supply in 2025 is expected to be less than 1%. Many major mines have encountered problems, and some major mining companies have significantly lowered their production expectations for this year and next year [21]. 3.3.2 Possible Decline in Domestic Production and Limited Release of Overseas Refined Copper Capacity - In September, China's electrolytic copper production was 1121,300 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 11.65%. However, due to the 770 - document and the shortage of raw materials, domestic production in October is expected to have limited upward space. Overseas, some smelters have shut down, and the new refined copper production capacity in 2025 is limited [27][28]. 3.3.3 Marginal Decline in Refined Copper Imports and the Impact of Document 770 on Scrap Copper Enterprises - From January to August, China's imports of unforged copper and copper products increased by 2.6% year - on - year, while refined copper imports decreased by 6.4%. In September, the import window was not fully opened. Document 770 increased the negative tax rate of scrap copper rod enterprises, leading to production cuts [51][52]. 3.3.4 Continuous Increase in North American Inventories and Low - Level Rebound in Domestic Social Inventories - Since September, domestic inventories have rebounded from a low level, and global inventories have continued to increase. North American inventories are still flowing in. It is expected that global inventories will remain stable or decline slightly in October, and domestic inventories will fluctuate at a low level [53][55]. 3.3.5 Traditional Industries Entering the Peak Season and Stable Growth in Emerging Industries (Except Photovoltaic) - In the power grid investment, due to the high copper price, some projects have been postponed. The photovoltaic industry is undergoing structural adjustments, and the growth rate of wind power is expected to slow down. The real estate market is still at the bottom, and the air - conditioning production in October has decreased. However, new energy vehicles have maintained a strong growth momentum, and it is expected that the refined copper consumption will recover steadily in October [61][72]. 3.4 Market Outlook - Macroeconomically, the U.S. government shutdown and China - U.S. game have increased market risk - aversion. The Fed has differences in the interest - rate cut path, and China will implement loose policies. Fundamentally, the supply side is tightening, and the demand side has limited growth in traditional industries and stable growth in emerging industries. Copper prices are expected to return to the upward channel after shock adjustments in October [77][78].

Group 1 - Copper prices reached $11,000 per ton, a significant milestone in the London Metal Exchange's history, raising questions about the sustainability of this price level [2] - Current trading price of copper is around $10,718 per ton, following a recent decline due to escalating trade tensions [2] - Analysts emphasize the need for strong demand growth, particularly from China, to maintain upward momentum in copper prices [2][3] Group 2 - Key copper mines, including Indonesia's Grasberg, have faced production halts this year, contributing to market speculation about supply shortages versus speculative trading [2] - The International Copper Study Group forecasts a 150,000-ton deficit in 2026, despite maintaining a surplus estimate of 17,800 tons for the current year [2] - China's copper industry faces three main challenges: increasing reliance on foreign resources, overcapacity in the midstream processing sector, and suppressed downstream demand due to high copper prices [3]

Group 1 - The majority of mining CEOs agree that the world is accelerating towards a copper shortage, with the real challenge being how to respond to this issue [2] - The merger between Anglo American and Teck Resources, valued at $54 billion, appears to address supply concerns, particularly as copper is crucial for the green energy transition [2] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) reported that global copper production was approximately 23 million tons last year, with projections to increase to 24 million tons by the end of the decade, but could fall below 20 million tons by 2035 without new supply sources [2] Group 2 - The IEA predicts that copper demand could approach 33 million tons by 2035, highlighting a significant supply-demand gap that may not be filled by increased recycling of scrap metal [2] - Supply disruptions are a pressing concern, as Freeport-McMoRan announced a production halt at its Grasberg mine in Indonesia, causing a stock price drop of over 15% [2] - Citigroup analysts believe that global copper production growth will be minimal this year, with an expected growth rate of only 1.3% by 2026, significantly lower than the 2.5% average growth rate over the past 25 years [2] Group 3 - Economic theory suggests that price increases typically lead to expanded mining operations, and recent trends indicate that copper prices are nearing last year's 20-year high [3] - However, inflation during the pandemic has accelerated production costs, with capital expenditures required to initiate new supplies in Latin America increasing by 65% since 2020 [3] - Major mining companies have differing views on the actual costs of new projects, with estimates ranging from $23,000 to $30,000 per ton for new copper mines, necessitating significant upfront investments [3] Group 4 - To achieve reasonable returns, large mining companies need copper prices to exceed $12,000 per ton, complicating their willingness to invest in new underground projects due to lengthy approval processes [4] - The merger between Anglo American and Teck Resources is attractive as it allows for the acquisition of additional mining capacity without the risks associated with new mine development [4] - The combined entity expects to add 175,000 tons of copper production by 2030, leveraging synergies from nearby mines [4] Group 5 - There are concerns that post-merger, the combined mining company may not increase production levels compared to their independent operations, as they may prioritize higher-return mines [5] - The exploration budget for mining companies has dropped below 3% of EBITDA for copper operations, down from over 6% in the early 2010s, indicating a decline in new discoveries [5] - Bank of America has raised its copper price forecast for next year to $11,313 per ton, with expectations of reaching $13,500 per ton by 2027, which could incentivize mining companies to resume exploration [5]

Report Title - Supply Disturbance Resumes, Copper Prices Remain Strong [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - In 2025, the copper market may experience a slight surplus, and the supply and demand will remain in a tight - balance. Copper price fluctuations are mainly driven by macro - sentiment. Affected by the mudslide incident in the Freeport Indonesia mining area and the peak consumption season in October, copper prices are expected to be strong, and it is advisable to buy on dips. Copper prices may reach a record high [85]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Review - Not provided in the content 2. Macroeconomic Aspect - US CPI has rebounded from a low level, with the CPI in May at 2.9% [14] 3. Fundamental Aspect - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) indicates that the global copper market will have a slight surplus in 2024 and may be in a tight - balance in 2025 [20] - **Supply - Mine Output**: The new output of various mines from 2024 - 2026 is provided in a table, with a total new output of 559 thousand tons in 2024, 665 thousand tons in 2025, and 557 thousand tons in 2026 [28] - **Supply - Domestic Refined Copper Output**: Not elaborated in detail - **Supply - Processing Fees**: Processing fees have reached a new low [35] - **Downstream Copper Consumption**: In SMM China's terminal industries, the power industry has the highest copper consumption at 31080 thousand tons (45.77%), followed by home appliances at 10080 thousand tons (14.84%), transportation at 7850 thousand tons (11.56%), other industries at 6960 thousand tons (10.25%), mechanical electronics at 6030 thousand tons (8.88%), and construction at 5910 thousand tons (8.7%) [38] - **Demand - Domestic Power Grid**: As of the first 8 months of 2025, the demand has increased by 13.99% year - on - year, with a cumulative demand of 379.5 billion. Equipment replacement in 2025 will drive grid demand, and policies provide some support [48] - **Demand - Real Estate**: As of the first 8 months of 2025, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing was 573.03 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 4.7%; the new construction area was 398.01 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 19.5%; and real estate investment was 603.09 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 12.9%. Despite policy relaxation, the real estate market is unlikely to perform well in 2025 [50] - **Demand - Air Conditioners**: As of the first 8 months of 2025, the air - conditioner production increased by 5.8% year - on - year, with a production of 199.64 million units. In 2025, domestic equipment replacement may drive growth, but exports face pressure [52] - **Demand - Automobiles**: As of the first 8 months of 2025, the cumulative automobile production was 21.05 million, a year - on - year increase of 12.7%. In 2025, traditional automobile consumption faces great pressure, and the growth rate of new - energy vehicles may also slow down [56] 4. Futures Market Structure - **Inventory**: Data on LME, SHFE, Comex, and bonded - area inventories from 2021 - 2025 are presented in graphs [63][64] - **Premium and Discount**: Information on the spot premium status at home and abroad is provided [71] - **CFTC**: Not elaborated in detail - **Domestic Funds**: The long - and short - position rankings of domestic futures companies are presented in a table [76] - **Open Interest**: Not elaborated in detail - **Technical Aspect**: The weekly chart of Shanghai copper is mentioned [79] 5. Outlook - **Indonesia Grabber Block Cave Mine Incident**: A mudslide on September 8, 2025, led to the suspension of mining operations. It is estimated to cause a production reduction of 200 thousand tons in 2025 (0.8% of the global total) and 300 thousand tons in 2026 (1.2% of the global total). In the futures market, it may stimulate copper prices to rise, and in the stock market, it is beneficial for the profit growth of copper - mining enterprises [84] - **Summary and Outlook**: In 2025, there will still be disturbances in the mining end, and demand is difficult to release rapidly. The supply and demand will remain in a tight - balance, and copper price fluctuations are mainly due to macro - sentiment. Copper prices are expected to be strong [85]

SMM联合制作联系人 刘明康 10月13日（周一），德意志银行预计2025年第四季度至2026年第一季度全球铜矿供应将转为负增长，导致短期价 格峰值达到平均每吨11,000美元。 德意志银行称矿山供应紧张应足以抵消需求疲软对价格造成的下行风险。 （文华综合） 作为全球最大的铜消费国，中国产业链面临三大挑战：上游资源对外依存度攀升、中游加工环节产能过剩、下游 需求受高铜价抑制。为助力行业应对变局，上海有色网携手铜产业链企业联合编制《2026中国铜产业链分布图》 中英双语版，点击此链接即可免费领取铜产业链分布图：https://s.wcd.im/v/470opZ19l/。 156 5309 0867 liumingkang@smm.cn ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - Last week, the copper price rose and then fell due to the escalation of Sino - US trade tensions, with Trump threatening to impose high tariffs on China again, which caused market panic. The Fed's September meeting minutes showed a large divergence between hawks and doves on the pace of interest rate cuts this year. The US government shutdown may delay important inflation and employment data, affecting the Fed's decision on future interest rate cut paths. These factors dampened market risk appetite, causing the London copper price to be blocked after rising to $11,000. On the fundamental side, Teck Resources significantly lowered its production forecasts for this year and next due to the extended shutdown of the QB project, intensifying concerns about global mine - end supply. Domestic refined copper production is expected to decline, social inventories are running at a low level, and the near - month futures market maintains a flat - water structure. Overall, although the supply shortage disturbances at overseas resource ends continue to heat up, Sino - US trade frictions reappeared last week, and the Fed's hawks and doves have differences on the interest rate cut rhythm. In the context of the spread of overseas macro - panic sentiment, the copper price is expected to enter a shock adjustment in the short term [2][3][8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Price Changes**: From September 26th to October 10th, LME copper rose from $10,205/ton to $10,374/ton, an increase of $169 or 1.66%; COMEX copper rose from 476.45 cents/pound to 484.5 cents/pound, an increase of 8.05 cents or 1.69%; SHFE copper rose from 82,470 yuan/ton to 85,910 yuan/ton, an increase of 3,440 yuan or 4.17%; international copper rose from 72,870 yuan/ton to 73,880 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,010 yuan or 1.39%. The Shanghai - London ratio rose from 8.08 to 8.28, an increase of 0.2. The LME spot premium/discount rose from -$33.91/ton to -$31.19/ton, an increase of $2.72 or - 8.02%. The Shanghai spot premium/discount rose from - 5 yuan/ton to 20 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan [4]. - **Inventory Changes**: From September 26th to October 10th, LME inventory decreased from 144,400 tons to 139,400 tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons or 3.46%; COMEX inventory increased from 322,284 short tons to 339,525 short tons, an increase of 17,241 short tons or 5.35%; SHFE inventory increased from 98,761 tons to 109,672 tons, an increase of 10,911 tons or 11.05%; Shanghai bonded area inventory increased from 76,300 tons to 88,000 tons, an increase of 11,700 tons or 15.33%. The total inventory increased from 641,745 tons to 676,597 tons, an increase of 34,852 tons or 5.43% [7]. Market Analysis and Outlook - **Price Fluctuation Reasons**: The rise and fall of the copper price last week were mainly due to the escalation of Sino - US trade tensions and the Fed's internal differences on interest rate cuts. Trump's threat to impose high tariffs on China and the possible delay of important economic data due to the US government shutdown dampened market risk appetite. On the fundamental side, the extension of the shutdown of Teck Resources' QB project and production problems in other mines intensified concerns about global mine - end supply [2][8]. - **Inventory Situation**: As of September 26th, the total inventory of LME, COMEX, SHFE, and Shanghai bonded area decreased to 641,000 tons. LME copper inventory decreased by 3,200 tons, the proportion of cancelled warehouse receipts decreased to 7.15%; SHFE inventory decreased by 7,000 tons; Shanghai bonded area inventory was basically flat. The rebound of the Shanghai - London ratio last week was mainly due to the Fed's overall interest rate cuts falling short of expectations, which boosted the US dollar index to rise from a low level [8]. - **Macro Situation**: Trump's threat to impose tariffs on China and export controls on key software hit market risk appetite, causing a sharp decline in overseas financial market prices. The Fed's September meeting minutes showed differences among officials on the rate and frequency of interest rate cuts. The continued shutdown of the US government may make the Fed lose economic data as a policy reference. In China, the official manufacturing PMI in September rose to 49.8, indicating that manufacturing production activities are accelerating and market demand is improving [9]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Teck Resources lowered its production guidance for this year and next due to the extended shutdown of the QB project. Panama's copper mine has no hope of resuming production this year, and some mines in Indonesia and Chile are also facing production declines. Global refined copper production is expected to decline slightly in October due to the shortage of overseas ore supply and the new waste copper policy. In terms of demand, the construction progress of power grid investment projects has been postponed, the start - up rate of copper cable production is lower than usual, but the new energy vehicle and photovoltaic industries show certain demand [10]. Industry News - **Chilean Copper Mines**: Codelco's copper production in August decreased by 25% due to a fatal collapse accident at the El Teniente copper mine. The Escondida copper mine's production was basically stable, while the Collahuasi copper mine's production decreased by 27% due to lower ore grades [12]. - **Teck Resources**: Due to the extended shutdown of the QB project to raise the tailings dam height, Teck Resources lowered its 2025 production guidance from 210,000 - 230,000 tons to 170,000 - 190,000 tons and its 2026 production forecast from 280,000 - 310,000 tons to 200,000 - 235,000 tons. The net cash unit cost in 2025 is expected to be between $2.65 - $3.00 per pound, higher than the previous forecast [13]. - **Freeport - McMoRan**: The company found the remains of all 7 missing workers at the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia after a mudslide. The mine is expected to fully resume operations in 2027, and some unaffected areas may restart production later this year. The company has declared force majeure on its Indonesian freight and lowered its production forecasts for this year and next [14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for copper is cautiously bullish [8] 2. Core View of the Report - The current supply at the mine end is tight, and the continuous low operation of TC prices has become the norm, which keeps copper prices in a state where they are more likely to rise than fall. At the same time, the continuous record - high gold prices have stimulated the financial attributes of copper. Therefore, in terms of operation, it is still recommended to mainly use buy - on - dips hedging, with the recommended buying range between 85,600 yuan/ton and 86,000 yuan/ton [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data 3.1.1 Futures Quotes - On October 9, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 84,610 yuan/ton and closed at 86,750 yuan/ton, a 4.38% increase from the previous trading day's close. The night - session main contract opened at 87,400 yuan/ton and closed at 86,650 yuan/ton, a 0.12% decrease from the afternoon close [1] 3.1.2 Spot Situation - The domestic electrolytic copper spot price ranged from 85,400 to 86,080 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 15 yuan/ton, slightly up from the previous day. The copper futures price rose from 84,800 yuan/ton in the morning, reaching a maximum of 85,980 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of over 3,000 yuan. The market showed a Contango structure, and the import loss widened to over a thousand yuan. The rapid rise in copper prices suppressed downstream procurement. The purchase sentiment in Shanghai was weak, and the transaction prices in Jiangsu and other places gradually fell to a discount of 60 - 70 yuan/ton. The Shanghai inventory has not accumulated yet, and imported and domestic supplies are still on the way, expected to arrive gradually over the weekend [2] 3.1.3 Important Information Summary - On October 9, the bill proposed by the US Republicans to end the government shutdown failed to get enough votes in the Senate. US President Trump planned to cut some federal projects popular with Democrats. New York Fed President Williams supported further interest - rate cuts this year to deal with the possible sharp slowdown in the labor market. The US Treasury Secretary has completed the last round of interviews for the next Fed Chairman candidate, and Trump will make a final decision from four candidates [3] 3.2 Supply - Side Analysis 3.2.1 Mine End - Canadian miner Teck Resources Ltd. lowered the copper production guidance for its flagship Quebrada Blanca mine in Chile before 2028 after a company - wide operational review and merger with Anglo American. The copper production guidance for next year is adjusted to 20 - 23.5 tons, previously 28 - 31 tons. The expected production for the year after next is 24 - 27.5 tons, and 22 - 25.5 tons in 2028, all lower than previous forecasts, mainly due to tailings problems related to mine waste treatment [4] 3.2.2 Smelting and Import - The International Copper Study Group expects global copper mine production to increase by 1.4% in 2025 and 2.3% in 2026. Global refined copper production is expected to increase by about 3.4% in 2025 and 0.9% in 2026. Global refined copper apparent consumption is expected to increase by about 3% in 2025 and 2.1% in 2026. There will be a supply surplus of about 178,000 tons in 2025 and a supply shortage of 150,000 tons in 2026. European copper producer Aurubis raised the European refined copper selling price for 2026 to a record high of $315 per ton premium over LME copper prices [5] 3.3 Demand - Side Analysis - According to the Mysteel survey, the long National Day holiday had little impact on the production and sales of most enterprises, and the resumption of work was in line with expectations. With the resumption of work, the output of copper rod enterprises recovered. After the holiday, the supply and demand of the copper rod market both showed an upward trend, and the market activity increased significantly [6] 3.4 Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts decreased by 225 tons to 139,475 tons compared with the previous trading day. SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 2,880 tons to 29,703 tons. On October 9, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 166,300 tons, a change of 18,000 tons from the previous week [7] 3.5 Strategy - For copper, it is recommended to be cautiously bullish, with a buy - on - dips hedging strategy and a recommended buying range between 85,600 yuan/ton and 86,000 yuan/ton. Arbitrage is put on hold, and for options, a short put at 85,000 yuan/ton is suggested [8]

Core Viewpoint - Copper prices have surged significantly before the National Day holiday, reaching new highs, driven by macroeconomic policies, supply-demand fundamentals, and market sentiment. The outlook for copper prices post-holiday remains optimistic, although caution is advised regarding potential corrections [3][4][5]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The tight supply of copper is a major focus, with disruptions in major mines like Freeport-McMoRan's Grasberg mine in Indonesia exacerbating the situation. Despite some production increases due to high prices, actual output remains constrained [4][6]. - In September, the average price of 1 copper in China was 80,775 yuan/ton, a 2.11% increase from August, and a 7.99% increase year-on-year. On September 30, the price surged to 83,140 yuan/ton, marking a significant rise [5]. - Global copper mine supply has been impacted by incidents in Indonesia and production cuts in Chile, leading to a tightening of copper concentrate supply [6][7]. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Analysts predict that copper prices will continue to show strength in the fourth quarter, with the Shanghai copper futures expected to trade between 79,000 and 85,000 yuan/ton. Factors supporting this include ongoing supply constraints and robust demand from sectors like electric grids and new energy vehicles [11]. - The financial attributes of copper have become more pronounced, with speculative buying increasing due to concerns over economic stagnation in the U.S. following interest rate cuts [7][8]. Impact on Industry Players - The rise in copper prices will have differentiated impacts on upstream and downstream companies. Companies with their own mining resources are likely to benefit the most, while those reliant on purchased raw materials may face margin pressures [9][10]. - Downstream companies are advised to utilize copper futures and options to hedge against rising costs, while upstream firms need to align their sales strategies with price movements to mitigate risks [12][13]. Investment Strategies - Investors are encouraged to look for buying opportunities after price corrections, while remaining vigilant about macroeconomic data and policy changes that could lead to volatility [12][13].

Group 1 - During the National Day holiday, overseas liquidity easing expectations boosted risk assets, with copper prices reaching around $108,000, the highest since May 2022 [1] - The U.S. government shutdown has led to a decline in ADP employment data, with a decrease of 32,000 jobs in September, raising expectations for two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year [1] - Chile's copper production fell by 9.9% year-on-year in August, marking the largest decline in over two years, primarily due to an accident at Codelco's El Teniente mine [1] Group 2 - Global copper mine vulnerabilities have been increasingly exposed this year, complicating negotiations between domestic smelters and overseas miners, leading to concerns about supply tightness [2] - Freeport's Grasberg mine in Indonesia faced force majeure, further escalating supply concerns and contributing to rising copper prices [2] - LME copper inventory has slightly decreased, while COMEX copper inventory has accumulated to over 330,000 tons, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [2]

Market Overview - During the National Day holiday, global financial markets faced multiple risk events, including the U.S. government shutdown entering its eighth day and political changes in Japan and France impacting the markets [1] - U.S. stock markets continued to rise, with major indices reaching record highs, supported by expectations of interest rate cuts [1] - The dollar index reached a two-month high, while the Japanese yen fell to its lowest level since mid-February [1][2] Commodity Market - LME copper prices hit a 16-month high due to supply concerns, reaching $10,815 per ton, influenced by operational disruptions in major mines [3] - COMEX gold prices surpassed $4,000 per ounce for the first time, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts and geopolitical uncertainties [6] - Oil prices fell to a four-month low, with concerns over oversupply and OPEC's decision to maintain a modest production increase of 137,000 barrels per day [7][17] Agricultural Commodities - CBOT soybean futures rebounded after hitting a seven-week low, supported by lower yield forecasts and expectations of improved demand [9][10] Central Bank Insights - The Federal Reserve noted increased risks in the employment market while remaining vigilant about inflation, with discussions on potential interest rate adjustments ongoing [11][12] - The New Zealand central bank unexpectedly cut rates by 50 basis points, indicating concerns over economic weakness [13]