Market Overview - The domestic market indices showed positive performance with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,581.86, up by 0.62% [2] - The agricultural sector underperformed slightly with a decline of 0.14% in the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector [4] Agricultural Sector Insights - The report highlights a favorable investment opportunity in Haida Group, driven by expected recovery in the feed industry as upstream raw material prices stabilize and downstream farming conditions improve [4] - Recent data indicates a decline in pig prices, with average prices in key provinces showing a decrease of 4.88% in Sichuan and Guangdong, while the average pork price increased by 0.29% [4] - The report discusses the cyclical nature of the pig industry, emphasizing that the current market may be overly pessimistic regarding the impact of rising pig production capacity on profitability [4] - Recommendations include companies like Wen's Foodstuffs, Shennong Group, and New Hope, which are expected to benefit from the anticipated recovery in the pig farming sector [4] Poultry and Pet Food Industry - The poultry sector is projected to see performance driven by new demand recovery in 2025, with Shennong Development positioned well for growth [4] - The pet food market is highlighted as a key area for growth in 2025, with a focus on brands that are leading in profitability and market trends, recommending Guibao Pet Food as a top pick [4] Textile and Apparel Sector - Nine Star Holdings reported a revenue increase of 2.9% in Q2 2025, with footwear manufacturing also showing growth [6][8] - The report notes that the sports apparel segment is experiencing robust demand, with brands like Anta Sports and Li Ning showing varied performance in retail sales [10] - Recommendations for the textile sector include companies with strong mid-year performance certainty, such as Bailong Oriental and Zhejiang Natural [10] Jewelry Sector - The gold and jewelry retail sector saw a year-on-year growth of 6.1% in June 2025, indicating stable demand [10] - Companies like Laoputang and Chaohongji are recommended for their potential recovery based on channel scale and franchise resources [10]

Group 1: Company Overview - Yuran Dairy's stock price has increased from 1.03 HKD to 3.92 HKD, indicating significant growth potential despite current valuations [1][3] - The company has a strong relationship with Yili, selling nearly all its products to them, which provides a stable revenue stream [3][4] - Yuran Dairy's high debt ratio is a concern, but its cash flow is robust due to guaranteed sales to Yili [4][8] Group 2: Investment Strategy - The investment approach for Yuran Dairy has shifted from a left-side trading strategy (buying on dips) to a right-side strategy (buying on upward trends) [2][4] - The company is expected to benefit from an industry cleanup starting in the second half of 2024, which could improve profitability [2][8] - The current market conditions and capital inflow into the dairy sector have positively impacted Yuran Dairy's stock price [4][5] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The dairy farming industry is facing high levels of debt and losses, with 90% of companies in the sector currently unprofitable [8] - The cyclical nature of the pig farming industry is highlighted, suggesting that similar dynamics may affect dairy farming in the future [5][8] - The upcoming third quarter is critical for cash flow management in the dairy sector due to the need for feed purchases [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - Muyuan Foods Co., Ltd. is redefining the global competitiveness of China's livestock industry through a series of technological innovations, including independent breeding systems and synthetic biology to alleviate "soybean meal anxiety" [1][2] Group 1: Independent Breeding - China is the world's largest pork consumer, making pig breeding crucial for stabilizing meat supply [3] - Muyuan has focused on pig breeding since 1998, achieving significant breakthroughs in growth speed and litter size, with pig output increasing from 1.859 million in 2014 to approximately 71 million in 2024 [4] - The company has adopted a revolutionary two-way breeding system that eliminates the need for expensive grandparent pigs, significantly improving breeding efficiency and reducing costs [4] Group 2: Cost Reduction - The feed cost constitutes about 60% of total costs in pig farming, with soybean meal accounting for approximately 13% of feed [6] - To reduce reliance on imported soybeans, Muyuan has partnered with West Lake University and Element Driven (Hangzhou) Biotechnology to create a platform for producing amino acids through synthetic biology, with an annual production capacity of 30,000 tons [6][7] - The company has reduced the proportion of soybean meal in its feed to 7.3% in 2024, well below the industry average, and aims to achieve "soybean-free" farming [7] Group 3: Smart Technology Application - Muyuan has reduced its total pig farming costs from 13.1 yuan/kg at the beginning of the year to 12.1 yuan/kg by June, with future targets aiming for costs as low as 10 yuan/kg [9] - The company employs smart technologies such as IoT, AI, big data, and cloud computing for environmental control, precise feeding, and health monitoring in pig farming [10][11] - In 2024, Muyuan signed a strategic cooperation agreement with BAF Vietnam Agricultural Joint Stock Company, marking its first step into overseas markets [11][12]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the pig farming sector, particularly the impact of policies, environmental regulations, and market dynamics on the industry [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Policy Impact**: Government policies aim to stabilize pig prices and CPI through measures like production limits and environmental regulations, which may extend the industry's profitability cycle [1][2][3]. - **Environmental Regulations**: Nationwide environmental rectification is being implemented, requiring companies to meet compliance standards to avoid penalties or shutdowns. Compliance is crucial for sustainable development [1][5]. - **Price Forecast**: Future pig prices are expected to fluctuate between 14-16 RMB/kg, influenced by breeding increments, weight reduction effects, market demand, and frozen meat indicators. Effective production limits could extend the profitability cycle into next year [1][6]. - **Company Performance**: Companies like DeKang, Muyuan, and Bangji Technology are performing well under current conditions. DeKang has cost and volume advantages, Muyuan is reducing costs and exceeding profit expectations, while Bangji is expanding its industry chain [1][7]. - **Industry Transition**: Pig farming enterprises should actively adjust and transform by utilizing idle capacity, optimizing production structures, and enhancing environmental compliance to adapt to new policies and improve competitiveness [1][8]. Additional Important Content - **Agricultural Sector Growth**: Recent surges in agricultural stocks and futures are attributed to intensified policy support aimed at eliminating inefficient production capacity and stabilizing the industry [2]. - **Current Pig Cycle**: The current pig cycle began in March 2024, with a peak in August 2024. The cycle has been compressed due to African swine fever, but limited production increases and ongoing de-capacity efforts may prolong profitability [3][9]. - **Innovative Models**: The industry is seeing innovative models such as partnerships with farmers, family farm arrangements, and light-asset models, which are becoming standardized and cost-effective [10][11]. - **Core Competitiveness**: Cost control is identified as the core competitiveness for pig farming enterprises, with a focus on seed resources, management levels, feed quality, and innovative models [12]. - **Company Recommendations**: DeKang is highlighted for its robust gene pool and policy alignment, with a potential market space of 500-1,000 billion RMB. Muyuan is noted for its strong innovation and profitability, while Bangji Technology is expected to grow its market value significantly [13][15]. - **Future Price Trends**: The pig farming sector is expected to see stock price increases in the next three months, driven by strong policy support and company innovations [16]. - **Environmental Policy Trends**: The ongoing environmental policies are expected to continue shaping the industry, with gradual implementation rather than abrupt shutdowns [19]. - **Market Dynamics**: The slight increase in the number of breeding sows aligns with market trends, and the sector's performance is influenced by policy and environmental factors rather than solely by breeding dynamics [21]. Company-Specific Insights - **DeKang's Growth Potential**: DeKang is projected to have a market potential exceeding 1,000 billion RMB, with significant growth in output expected in the coming years [26][29]. - **Muyuan's Profitability**: Muyuan's strong profitability and dividend potential make it a suitable candidate for investment, especially as the industry consolidates [20]. - **Bangji's Strategic Development**: Bangji is focused on establishing a complete industry chain, with significant growth potential in both feed and pig farming sectors [14][15][22]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and developments within the pig farming industry as discussed in the conference call, highlighting the interplay between policy, environmental factors, and company performance.

Group 1 - Deutsche Bank suggests that if President Trump were to dismiss Fed Chair Jerome Powell, the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield could rise by over 50 basis points, indicating a steepening yield curve trade as a strategy against risks to Fed independence [1] - Nomura's global forex strategy team indicates that the likelihood of a weaker USD/JPY exchange rate is increasing post-Japan's upper house elections, with expectations of fiscal policy expansion without additional bond issuance, which may alleviate downward pressure on the yen [2] - Barclays reports that after Japan's recent upper house elections, long-term Japanese government bond yields may face mild upward pressure, estimating a reasonable valuation for the 30-year JGB term premium at around 150 basis points, suggesting a potential increase from the current level of 145 basis points [3] Group 2 - MUFG analysts express skepticism about the sustainability of the yen's recent gains following the upper house elections, citing increased political uncertainty that could complicate trade agreements with the U.S. and pose risks to the Japanese economy and yen [4] - MUFG also notes that despite the European Central Bank's concerns over the recent appreciation of the euro, the currency may continue to strengthen, as market confidence in further rate cuts has diminished [5] - Rabobank's forex strategist suggests that if the Bank of Japan signals a potential rate hike by year-end, the yen could appreciate, with forecasts indicating USD/JPY could reach 145.00 in three months and 140.00 in twelve months [6] Group 3 - Pantheon Macroeconomics highlights that President Trump's tariff threats create uncertainty for the ECB's rate decisions, with the central bank expected to maintain the benchmark rate at 2.00% amid unclear intentions regarding tariffs [7][8] - CICC forecasts that the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield could rise to 4.8%-5.0% in the second half of the year, driven by increased net supply due to the "Great Beautiful Act," which is projected to add approximately $3.4 trillion to the federal deficit from 2025 to 2034 [5] - Zhongtai Securities expresses optimism about the long-term investment opportunities in the real estate sector, emphasizing the importance of monitoring local policy implementations and support measures [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report provides outlook ratings for various agricultural products, including: - Oils and fats: Expected to fluctuate [5] - Protein meal: Expected to fluctuate and rise [6] - Corn and starch: Expected to fluctuate [6][7] - Live pigs: Expected to be volatile and slightly bullish [2][7] - Natural rubber and 20 - number rubber: Expected to fluctuate [8][9] - Synthetic rubber: Expected to fluctuate [10][11] - Cotton: Expected to fluctuate [10][11] - Sugar: Expected to be volatile and slightly bearish in the long - term, and fluctuate in the short - term [12] - Pulp: Expected to be volatile and slightly bullish [13][14] - Logs: Expected to be volatile and slightly bearish [15] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes the supply, demand, inventory, and market sentiment of various agricultural products. It points out that factors such as policies, trade relations, weather, and consumption demand have significant impacts on the prices of agricultural products. For example, the anti - involution policy in the live pig industry affects market sentiment, and the trade tension affects the price of protein meal [1][5][6]. 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Oils and Fats - **View**: Market sentiment is weakening, and the risk of a decline in the near future is increasing. - **Logic**: Concerns about high - temperature threats to US soybean growth, the impact of the Fed's policy expectations on the macro - environment, and the increase in palm oil production and inventory pressure in the industry are the main reasons. - **Outlook**: The market is facing a game of multiple factors, and there is a risk of a callback [5]. 3.1.2 Protein Meal - **View**: Driven by trade - tension concerns, the protein meal market is rising. - **Logic**: International soybean markets are facing a complex situation of multiple factors, while the domestic market is affected by supply pressure and trade - war concerns. - **Outlook**: The domestic protein meal market is stronger than the US market, and the basis is expected to be weak. Long - term prospects are bullish [6]. 3.1.3 Corn and Starch - **View**: The macro - environment is favorable, and corn rebounds after over - decline. - **Logic**: The supply of corn is gradually tightening, but the demand is weak, and the market has digested previous positive factors. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, there may be a phased rebound, but in the long - term, there is a downward pressure [6][7]. 3.1.4 Live Pigs - **View**: The anti - involution hype continues, and live pig futures prices rebound. - **Logic**: The supply of live pigs is still high in the short, medium, and long - term, but the policy of adjusting production capacity brings positive expectations. The demand and inventory also affect the market. - **Outlook**: The market is expected to be volatile and slightly bullish, but the supply pressure in the third quarter is still large [1][7]. 3.1.5 Natural Rubber - **View**: The bullish sentiment in the commodity market continues, and natural rubber reaches the 15,000 - yuan mark. - **Logic**: The overall commodity market sentiment is bullish, and the fundamentals of natural rubber are stable in the short - term. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, it is easy to rise and difficult to fall, following the overall commodity sentiment [8][9]. 3.1.6 Synthetic Rubber - **View**: The market is running strongly, but the hype is limited. - **Logic**: The news of the industrial policy stimulates the market sentiment, but the policy direction is unclear. - **Outlook**: It is expected to fluctuate within a range [10][11]. 3.1.7 Cotton - **View**: The 09 contract reduces positions and corrects. - **Logic**: The supply of cotton is expected to be loose, the demand is in the off - season, and the inventory is low in the short - term. - **Outlook**: Low inventory supports the price, but the upward resistance increases, and it may correct [10][11]. 3.1.8 Sugar - **View**: There are negative factors at the import end, and the rebound height of sugar prices is limited. - **Logic**: The global sugar market supply is expected to be loose, and domestic imports are expected to increase. - **Outlook**: In the long - term, sugar prices are expected to decline, and in the short - term, they are expected to fluctuate [12]. 3.1.9 Pulp - **View**: Pulp futures rise with the macro - environment, and it is recommended to go long. - **Logic**: The macro - environment is the main driving force, while the supply and demand are weak. - **Outlook**: It is expected to be volatile and slightly bullish [13][14]. 3.1.10 Logs - **View**: With continuous delivery, logs increase positions and rise. - **Logic**: The spot market is affected by delivery and inventory, and the supply and demand are expected to be weak in the medium - term. - **Outlook**: The short - term is affected by macro - funds, and the long - term market demand is stable [15][16]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - The report lists various agricultural products for data monitoring, including oils and fats, protein meal, corn, starch, cotton, sugar, pulp, and logs, but specific data are not provided in the given text [18][37][50][107][120][135][154].

Core Viewpoint - The acquisition of Riverstone Farm Pte.Ltd. by Bangji Technology aims to create a closed-loop supply chain in the feed and pig farming industry, potentially reducing feed costs for farmers while navigating the cyclical nature of the pig industry [1][5][20]. Group 1: Acquisition Details - Bangji Technology plans to acquire 100% equity of six agricultural companies under Riverstone, including Riverstone Agriculture, for a total consideration expected to exceed 600 million yuan [5][6]. - The acquisition is seen as a strategic move to transition from a pure feed production company to an integrated feed and pig farming enterprise, enhancing upstream and downstream collaboration [14][20]. - The deal is anticipated to significantly lower feed costs for farmers, with estimates suggesting a reduction of 80 yuan per pig [20][23]. Group 2: Industry Context - The feed industry is currently facing challenges, with a reported 14.1% decline in pig feed production in Shandong, dropping to 9.66 million tons in 2024 [15]. - The pig farming sector in Shandong has been impacted by African swine fever, leading to significant losses in breeding stock and prompting a shift towards external piglet sourcing [9][10]. - The trend towards a "platform + breeding team + family pig farm" model is gaining traction, indicating a shift in the industry towards more integrated and sustainable practices [18][20]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The acquisition reflects a broader trend in the industry where companies are seeking to control the entire supply chain to mitigate risks associated with market volatility and cyclical downturns [20][23]. - The competitive landscape is intensifying, with many companies, including Haida Group and New Hope, also pursuing similar strategies to enhance their market position [20][24]. - The potential for a price war in 2025 due to increased production capacity poses a risk to profitability, highlighting the cyclical nature of the pig farming industry [23][24].

Group 1: Fixed Income Market Insights - The central bank's monetary policy is leaning towards limited easing, with the cancellation of pledged bond freezes having a neutral impact on the bond market [3] - The "anti-involution" policy is in its early stages and has not yet directly affected the bond market, primarily influencing through the stock market [3] Group 2: Swine Industry Outlook - The long-term value reassessment opportunity for the swine industry is promising, with pig prices expected to decline in the short to medium term due to supply pressures [4] - Key recommended companies in the swine sector include Wen's Foodstuffs, Muyuan Foods, and Juxing Agriculture [4] Group 3: Poultry and Animal Health - The poultry market is experiencing price declines, with a focus on marginal improvements in the cycle [5] - The animal health sector is expected to see performance recovery, with a growing interest in the pet medical industry, projected to reach a market size of 840 billion yuan by 2024 [7] Group 4: Machinery Industry Insights - The motorcycle export market remains robust, with a year-on-year growth of 14% in June 2025, driven by significant increases in exports of motorcycles over 250cc [12][14] - Africa continues to show high growth rates in motorcycle exports, with a notable increase of 63% [15] Group 5: Computer Industry Developments - The AI computing market is experiencing exponential growth, with significant opportunities in AI processors and related sectors [18] - Recommended companies in the AI computing space include Haiguang Information and Nvidia [19] Group 6: Apparel Industry Performance - Xtep International's main brand shows steady growth, while the Saucony brand is expected to grow significantly, with a 20%+ increase in retail sales [22] - The company anticipates revenue growth of 144.1 billion yuan in 2025, with a corresponding net profit of 13.7 billion yuan [25] Group 7: Automotive Sector Trends - The automotive sector outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with a notable increase in stock prices for companies like Li Auto and NIO [26] - The launch of new models, including the Li Auto i8 and Tesla Model Y 6-seater, is expected to drive consumer interest [27][29] Group 8: Sportswear Industry Insights - Anta Sports reported low single-digit growth in its main brand, while outdoor brands are experiencing strong growth, with a 50%-55% increase in sales for other brands [32] - The acquisition of Jack Wolfskin is expected to enhance the company's international market presence [34] Group 9: Consumer Goods Market Analysis - The consumer goods sector is under pressure, with a decline in retail sales for food and beverage categories, particularly in the restaurant sector [43] - Recommendations for consumer goods include companies like Nongfu Spring and Eastroc Beverage, which are expected to benefit from increased consumer spending [46]

Group 1: Financing Status in the Swine Breeding Industry - From 2017 to June 2025, there were a total of 38 financing events in China's swine breeding industry, indicating a relatively mature investment stage with a majority of companies in the New Third Board and IPO phases [3][5][12] - The financing events are primarily concentrated in regions such as Sichuan, Hebei, and Henan, with Sichuan having 6 events, while Hebei and Henan each recorded 5 events [5][6] Group 2: External Investment Layout of Representative Companies - Major companies in the swine breeding industry, such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuff Group, have focused their external investments in the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sectors, accounting for approximately 74% of their total investments [10][12] - The external investment activities of these companies are predominantly concentrated in Henan and Guangdong provinces [6][10] Group 3: Mergers and Acquisitions in the Industry - The swine breeding industry in China has seen a high level of merger and acquisition activity, primarily through horizontal mergers [12][14] - Notable merger and acquisition events from 2017 to 2025 include various horizontal mergers, with significant transactions such as Wens Foodstuff Group acquiring New Big Agriculture for 810 million RMB and New Hope Liuhe acquiring New Mu Breeding for 850 million RMB [14][15]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Type: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: July 22, 2025 [2] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - Futures: On the 21st, the main 2509 contract of live pigs opened slightly higher and fluctuated higher, closing in the positive territory. The highest was 14,510 yuan/ton, the lowest was 14,160 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 14,365 yuan/ton, up 1.77% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index increased by 7,352 lots to 167,973 lots [9]. - Spot: On the 21st, the average price of ternary pigs in the country was 14.40 yuan/kg, up 0.01 yuan/kg from the previous day [9]. Market Analysis - Demand: The price difference between fat and standard pigs slightly expanded, and the utilization rate of pens increased, indicating that the enthusiasm for secondary fattening replenishment increased in the early stage. Due to the hot weather, terminal demand was weak, slaughterhouse orders were average, and the slaughter rate and volume remained low. On July 21, the slaughter volume of sample slaughterhouses was 135,100 heads, a decrease of 700 heads from the previous day and an increase of 2,500 heads from a week ago [10]. - Supply: According to Yongyi data, the planned slaughter volume of sample enterprises in July was 23.88 million heads, a month-on-month decrease of 1.19% from June. Currently, the slaughter progress of the breeding side has recovered, the enthusiasm for slaughter has increased compared with the first ten days, the slaughter weight has slightly decreased, and the utilization rate of pens for secondary fattening pigs is relatively high. There are still secondary fattening pigs to be slaughtered in the future [10]. Outlook - In late July, the slaughter volume of large-scale farms will recover. In order to meet the monthly slaughter target, breeding enterprises may continue to increase the supply. At the same time, demand is in the off-season, and pig prices may continue to be under pressure [10]. - In the medium and long term, the supply of live pigs will continue to increase. However, the domestic anti-involution initiative and the strengthening of regional environmental protection policies are beneficial to the long-term performance of pig prices, especially the far-month contracts are affected by factors such as the expected reduction in weight and the increase in supply being less than the increase in demand. Attention should be paid to the impact of future policies on production capacity [10]. Group 3: Industry News - As of July 18, the average profit per head of self-breeding and self-raising pigs was 111 yuan/head, a week-on-week decrease of 54 yuan/head; the average profit per head of purchasing piglets for breeding was -126 yuan/head, a week-on-week decrease of 82 yuan/head [11][13]. Group 4: Data Overview - On the week of July 17, the average market sales price of 15kg piglets was 542 yuan/head, an increase of 1 yuan/head from the previous week [22]. - As of the end of the second quarter of 2025, the national live pig inventory was 424.47 million heads, a year-on-year increase of 2.2% and a month-on-month increase of 7.16 million heads or 1.72%. From the second quarter of last year to the second quarter of this year, the month-on-month changes were 1.7%, 2.8%, 0.11%, -2.37%, and 1.72% respectively [22]. - As of the week of July 17, the average slaughter weight of national live pigs was 128.83 kg, a decrease of 0.2 kg from the previous week and a month-on-month decrease of 0.16% [22].