Group 1 - The short-term performance of A-shares after the New Year is mainly influenced by policies, external events, liquidity, and overseas market trends [1][6] - Since 2010, in 16 years, the Shanghai Composite Index has risen in 11 instances during the 10 trading days before the holiday and has shown similar patterns after the holiday [1][6] - Positive policies and external events are core influencing factors for post-holiday A-share performance, with examples including the resolution of the "fiscal cliff" in the US in January 2013 and the easing of US-China trade tensions in early 2019 [1][6] Group 2 - Current observations suggest that the A-share spring market is ongoing, with potential for a strong but volatile performance post-New Year [1][6] - There is a likelihood of further positive policy implementation after the holiday, including the rollout of guidelines for equipment updates and trade-in policies, as well as local government meetings to stimulate consumption [1][6] Group 3 - External risks post-holiday are expected to be limited, with a high probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in January and stable US-China relations, although tensions with Japan may persist [2][7] - Liquidity is anticipated to further loosen, with potential for accelerated capital inflow into the stock market [2][7] Group 4 - The economic recovery remains weak, with industrial profits continuing to decline, but there is potential for recovery in certain sectors, particularly in technology and cyclical industries [2][7] - Historical trends indicate that industries driven by upward policies and trends before the holiday are likely to maintain their strength afterward [3][8] Group 5 - Recommendations for post-holiday investment include focusing on technology, certain cyclical sectors, and consumer industries, with specific mention of machinery, military, new energy, media, computing, electronics, telecommunications, and pharmaceuticals [4][9] - Current PEG ratios for growth sectors like power equipment and media are relatively low, indicating potential for investment [4][9]

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing a structural bull market driven by a significant re-evaluation of China's technological capabilities and the complexities of US-China relations, alongside resilient external demand and an explosion in AI inference demand [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Performance and Expectations - In 2025, the median return of actively managed public funds is projected to be 28.2%, ranking third in the past decade and sixth in the last twenty years [1][12] - The overall market performance can be divided into five phases, with the total return of the CSI All A Shares Index at 27.7% and the Hang Seng Tech Index at 23.4% for the year [2][13] - The first phase shows a brief market excitement before the Spring Festival, while the second phase sees a significant rally in the Hang Seng Tech Index due to a shift in narrative regarding China's autonomous technology [2][13] Group 2: Structural Bull Market Dynamics - The "big money" in the structural bull market comes from substantial expected differences and performance growth, primarily driven by the correction of pessimistic expectations regarding external demand and the AI industry's evolution [3][14] - The market's perception of external demand shifted from pessimism to optimism throughout the year, culminating in a consensus on external demand exposure by year-end [3][14] - The AI industry's demand surge has filled gaps during transitional phases, leading to significant valuation recoveries for key companies [4][14] Group 3: Liquidity and Market Dynamics - Incremental liquidity is viewed as a result of the expected difference and performance realization, rather than a primary driver of market growth [5][15] - The net inflow of ETFs was 230.6 billion yuan for the year, indicating that liquidity does not directly correlate with market index increases [5][15] - The market is not lacking in funds but rather in investable assets and imaginative space [5][15] Group 4: Future Expectations and Strategies - The largest expected difference for 2026 will stem from balancing external and internal demand, with a trend towards taxing external trade and subsidizing domestic demand [6][16] - The market sentiment at the end of 2025 was relatively restrained, suggesting a higher probability of upward market movement in early 2026 [7][17] - Investment strategies should focus on sectors with lower heat and concentration but increasing attention and catalysts, such as chemicals, engineering machinery, and renewable energy [9][19]

（文章来源：第一财经） 光大证券研报表示，当前来看，2025年12月下旬的上涨或许是本轮春季行情起点。对于1月份指数的行 情，投资者或许应该保持耐心。消费与成长有望成为今年春季行情的两条主线。1月行业配置方面，关 注电子、电力设备、有色金属、汽车等。若市场风格为成长，五维行业比较框架打分靠前的行业分别为 电子、电力设备、通信、有色金属、汽车、国防军工；若1月份市场风格为防御，五维行业比较框架打 分靠前的行业分别为非银金融、电子、有色金属、电力设备、汽车、交通运输等。 ...

Core Insights - Guangxi's new round of consumer goods exchange policy is set to stimulate consumption during the New Year holiday period in 2026, with various promotional activities organized to enhance consumer engagement and sales [1] Group 1: Consumer Activity and Sales Performance - The consumer goods exchange initiative launched on December 31, 2025, has seen over 10,000 applications for subsidies amounting to over 5.87 million RMB, leading to sales exceeding 41.25 million RMB within two days [1] - During the New Year holiday, sales of major appliances and communication equipment in Guangxi increased by 4.2% and 5.0% year-on-year, respectively [1] - Key monitored pedestrian streets and commercial areas in Guangxi experienced a 21% increase in average daily foot traffic and a 16% increase in sales revenue year-on-year [1] Group 2: Online Promotions and Tourism - Over 400 "Guangxi Products Chain ASEAN" live streaming events were organized to promote local and ASEAN products, enhancing online traffic and boosting offline sales [2] - The number of visitors to Guangxi during the New Year holiday increased by 35.2% compared to the previous year, with a significant recovery in dining consumption [2] - Major events such as concerts featuring popular artists have led to a dramatic increase in hotel bookings around the Guangxi Sports Center, with orders surging by several times year-on-year [2] Group 3: Cultural and Entertainment Activities - Guangxi planned over 400 key cultural and tourism activities, including New Year music festivals and parades, with Beihai's Weizhou Island emerging as a top destination for New Year tourism, ranking second nationally in ticket sales [2] - Movie screenings of popular films like "Zootopia 2" and "Avatar 3" have contributed to a vibrant cultural consumption market during the holiday [2] Group 4: Market Stability - Prices of essential goods in Guangxi remained stable during the New Year holiday, with no reports of shortages, price fluctuations, or other abnormal market conditions [2]

Economic Activity - Guangdong's economy shows strong momentum with significant increases in consumer confidence and activity, as evidenced by record passenger flows in public transport and border crossings [1][6] - Guangzhou Metro set a new national record with 14.09 million passenger trips on New Year's Eve, while Shenzhen Metro reached 13.05 million, marking historical highs [5] - BYD's overseas vehicle sales surpassed 1 million for the first time, reflecting a 145% year-on-year increase, highlighting the growth of the electric vehicle sector [1][8] Cultural and Tourism Events - The integration of culture, tourism, and sports has revitalized consumer engagement, with events like concerts and food festivals attracting large crowds [3][4] - The New Year celebrations included a marathon in Shunde, drawing 18,000 participants, and various local festivals that enhanced community engagement and tourism [4][3] - Traditional festivals have been modernized to attract visitors, such as the carrot festival in Zhongshan, which has become a popular destination with over 2,000 visitors monthly [3] Transportation Infrastructure - Guangdong's transportation network has effectively supported the massive flow of people, with record numbers at land and air ports, showcasing the region's capacity as a key node in domestic and international logistics [6][5] - The Zhuhai Gongbei Port recorded over 440,000 border crossings, the highest in six years, indicating robust cross-border travel [6] - The development of modern infrastructure has facilitated economic circulation and enhanced the "one-hour living circle" concept in the Greater Bay Area [6] Government and Business Initiatives - Local governments are actively enhancing the business environment and supporting consumer markets through initiatives like the "Nanhai Old Store Carnival" in Foshan, which promotes local brands [7] - Companies like Huawei and BYD are making significant advancements, with Huawei's 5G-A network supporting 60 million users and BYD achieving record vehicle sales [8][9] - The collective efforts of government and businesses are aimed at fostering high-quality economic development and responding to the growing cultural and recreational demands of the population [9]

Core Viewpoint - The Sichuan Provincial Government has issued the "14th Five-Year Plan for New Infrastructure Construction," aiming to establish a high-efficiency, economical, intelligent, green, safe, and reliable new infrastructure system by 2025, supporting high-quality economic and social development and modern governance capabilities [3][5][6]. Group 1: Key Tasks - The plan outlines seven key tasks, including expanding information infrastructure supply capacity, promoting integrated infrastructure upgrades, enhancing innovation infrastructure development capabilities, expanding application space for new infrastructure, strengthening technical support for new infrastructure, improving safety and reliability, and promoting coordinated urban-rural development [6][8]. - Specific focus areas include accelerating the construction of communication networks, data center systems, intelligent computing systems, industrial internet systems, and future networks, as well as smart transportation, smart energy, smart water conservancy, and smart logistics [6][9]. Group 2: Information Infrastructure Investment - Sichuan plans to invest a total of 100 billion yuan in building a leading information infrastructure, including the construction of 250,000 5G base stations to achieve widespread coverage in townships and administrative villages [8]. - The province aims to create a "Belt and Road" international information port in Chengdu, a second city for information communication in Mianyang, and a "5G + Industrial Internet" pilot area in Deyang [8]. Group 3: Industrial Internet Development - The plan emphasizes the construction of an industrial internet system as a crucial task, with Sichuan's data centers and 5G base stations ranking among the top in the country [9]. - The province has already established nearly 40 provincial-level industrial internet platforms and has facilitated over 240,000 enterprises to transition to cloud services [9]. Group 4: Innovation Infrastructure - The plan aims to enhance the development level of innovation infrastructure, focusing on source innovation and industrial innovation capabilities [11]. - Sichuan will create a world-class cluster of major scientific and technological infrastructure, including advanced nuclear energy, aerodynamics, and biomedical fields, and will establish a national laboratory base in Tianfu New Area [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This year after the New Year's Day, the A - share spring market is underway and may be volatile and bullish, affected by factors such as policy implementation, liquidity, and the performance of the Hong Kong stock market [1][4][7]. - After the holiday, technology growth and some cyclical industries may be relatively dominant, with continuous upward industrial trends and policy support [1][26]. - After the holiday, it is recommended to continue to allocate industries such as technology, some cyclical and consumer sectors on dips [1][38][46]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Post - holiday Spring Market is Underway 3.1.1 Factors Affecting Post - holiday A - share Movement - Since 2010, in 11 out of 16 years, the Shanghai Composite Index showed the same upward or downward trend in the 10 trading days before and after the holiday. The post - holiday short - term market performance is affected by policies, external events, liquidity, and the performance of the Hong Kong stock market [1][4]. - Positive policies and external events may lead to a short - term rise in the post - holiday A - shares, while tight policies or negative external events may result in weak performance. Liquidity also plays a key role, and the performance of the Hong Kong stock market during the holiday has a certain impact on the post - holiday A - shares [4]. 3.1.2 This Year's A - share Spring Market is Underway and May be Volatile and Bullish - Positive policies may continue to be implemented after the holiday, and external risks may be limited. The "two new" policies are accelerating implementation, local two - sessions may be held intensively, and consumption - stimulating policies may be introduced. Externally, the Fed may cut interest rates in January, Sino - US relations may remain stable, and geopolitical conflicts may ease [7][8]. - Post - holiday short - term liquidity may be further relaxed. Overseas, the Fed is likely to cut interest rates, and the RMB exchange rate may be strong. Domestically, the central bank may cut interest rates and reserve requirements. Also, stock market funds may accelerate inflow [9]. - The Hong Kong stock market performed strongly during the New Year's Day holiday, which may boost the post - holiday A - shares. The correlation coefficient between the Hong Kong stock market's rise and fall during the New Year's Day holiday and the Shanghai Composite Index's rise and fall in the 10 trading days after the holiday is about 0.5 [18][19]. - The post - holiday economy and corporate profits are still in weak recovery. The economy is in a weak recovery state, and corporate profits may continue to recover, although the industrial enterprise profits in November continued to decline [21]. 3.2 Industry Allocation: Focus on Growth after the Holiday 3.2.1 Technology Growth and Some Cyclical Industries May be Relatively Dominant after New Year's Day - Historically, policy and industrial trends drive pre - holiday strong industries to maintain their strength after the holiday. Pre - holiday leading industries may switch due to high sentiment or market adjustments. Industries with continuous strength around the New Year's Day usually have a relatively low historical quantile of trading volume [26]. - This year, the industrial trends of technology growth and some cyclical industries may continue to rise after the holiday. The pre - holiday leading cyclical industries have neutral - low sentiment, while the technology growth industries have high sentiment [26]. 3.2.2 Currently, the PEG of Electric Power, Media, and Automobile is Low - Among the primary growth industries, the predicted PEG of electric power equipment, media, and automobile is relatively low, at 0.64, 0.86, and 1.13 respectively. The historical quantiles of trading volume of medicine, computer, media, and automobile are low [40]. - Among the secondary growth industries, the sentiment of traditional Chinese medicine, biological products, automobile services, and chemical pharmaceuticals is low. The predicted PEG of nautical equipment, games, commercial vehicles, and wind power equipment is relatively low [44]. 3.2.3 After the Holiday, it is Recommended to Continue to Allocate Industries such as Technology, Some Cyclical and Consumer Sectors on Dips - It is recommended to allocate industries with upward policy and industrial trends, such as machinery (robotics), military (commercial aerospace), electric power (nuclear fusion, energy storage), media (AI applications, games), computer (AI applications, satellite Internet), electronics (semiconductors, AI hardware), communication (AI hardware), and medicine (innovative drugs) on dips [46]. - In the short term, it is recommended to allocate sectors that may make up for lost ground and have potentially improved fundamentals, such as securities and consumer sectors (food, retail, social services) on dips [56].

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of the Shanghai NearLink Open Laboratory marks a significant step in Shanghai's autonomous innovation ecosystem in the field of wireless short-range communication, highlighting advancements in technology and collaboration within the industry [1] Group 1: Technology Development - NearLink is a new generation wireless short-range communication technology brand independently developed in China, with standards set by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology [1] - The technology shows significant improvements in transmission performance and device compatibility compared to traditional technologies like Bluetooth, applicable in smart vehicles, industrial intelligence, and smart home scenarios [1] Group 2: Collaboration and Ecosystem - The Shanghai NearLink Open Laboratory represents a deepening collaboration between Midea and the Shanghai HiSilicon industrial chain, serving as a core platform for building an international NearLink alliance and its industrial ecosystem [1] - The laboratory integrates common technology research and development, testing certification services, and ecosystem cultivation and empowerment [1] Group 3: Regional Innovation Growth - During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, the innovation and entrepreneurship density in Qingpu District has been continuously increasing, with social R&D expenditure averaging a growth of 19.2% over the past five years, projected to exceed 6.5 billion yuan in 2024 [1]

Core Insights - Chengdu's Jinjiang District is actively developing a future industry system to stimulate high-quality economic growth through the "Future Industry High-Quality Development Action Plan (2025-2027)" [1] Group 1: Future Industry Development - The district is focusing on six cutting-edge tracks: intelligent 6G, brain-computer interfaces, quantum technology, embodied intelligence, low-altitude economy, and intelligent connected vehicles [3] - Jinjiang District has established a new development pattern featuring "1 leading area, 6 breakthrough tracks, and 'science and technology + application' dual-core drive" [1] Group 2: Technological Innovations - Chengdu XinNerve Technology Co., which specializes in brain-computer interface technology, has achieved a 91.67% accuracy rate in diagnosing autism, serving over 2,000 children since its establishment in the district [2] - The district has introduced key projects from institutions like Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications to incubate significant technological achievements in intelligent 6G [3] Group 3: Ecosystem and Application - Jinjiang District is creating a dual-core geographical layout with "Chunxi Road + Science and Technology Bailu Bay" to facilitate the transformation of technological innovations into practical applications [4] - The Bailu Bay Technology Ecological Park is positioned as a new engine for future industries, leveraging leading enterprises and innovation platforms to streamline the conversion from technology to products [4] Group 4: Future Plans - The district aims to optimize future industry layout, build an ecosystem, and accelerate the transformation of achievements, striving to create a nationally influential future industry cluster and application demonstration area [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes that the essence of current great power competition is technological competition, with technology innovation being the key driver for China's economic growth as it approaches the level of middle-developed countries by 2025 [1][2]. - By 2025, China is expected to showcase remarkable achievements in technology innovation, including the launch of the DeepSeek R1 reasoning model, entry into the top ten of the global innovation index, and the rise of the "Shenzhen-Hong Kong-Guangzhou" innovation cluster to the top of global rankings [1][4]. - The article highlights that the Chinese government has increasingly recognized the importance of technology and innovation, as evidenced by the frequent mentions of these terms in the 14th Five-Year Plan [1]. Group 2 - The article discusses the shift in China's economic growth model towards high-quality development, where technology innovation is crucial for upgrading industries and moving beyond reliance on traditional cost advantages [4][5]. - It notes that the global technological capacity is primarily concentrated in the US and China, with other economies struggling to compete due to high costs and resource requirements for advanced technologies like artificial intelligence [5][6]. - The article points out that China's comprehensive industrial capabilities and high infrastructure development levels provide a unique competitive advantage, enabling rapid technological innovation [6][7]. Group 3 - The increasing role of enterprises in technological innovation is highlighted, with a shift back to companies driving foundational research due to their practical and application-oriented focus [8][9]. - The article emphasizes the need for cultivating "technology brokers" who understand both technology and market dynamics to facilitate the conversion of foundational research into practical applications [10][11]. - It suggests that institutional reforms are necessary to adapt production relations to the development of new productive forces, particularly in the field of innovative pharmaceuticals [11].