市场策略丨深度报告 [Table_Title] 红马奔腾策略系列 1：从老红利到新红马之投资 范式 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 目前部分机构资产回报率承压，核心原因在于负债端久期长、成本刚性，而低利率环境下，固 收类资产收益率下行，权益类的传统红利投资股息下降，较难覆盖负债端成本。投资思路：预 期回报率高（3%~5%以上）、安全边际高（行业格局和估值企稳）的方向值得关注。1）寻找 未来股息率高的方向：通过分红率的提高来提供较高的股息水平，直接增厚股息回报；2）同时 估值不应大幅下滑：具有安全边际，避免因资本利得大幅损失（如股价下跌）抵消股息收益， 重点关注供给收缩/行业出清到尾声的细分行业。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 戴清 SAC：S0490524010002 SFC：BTR264 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 28 %% %% %% %% 关注自由现金流和稳住 ROE 是分红潜力的关键。一是从理论出发，稳定的自由现金流是保障 潜在股息率提升的重要基础，其通过影响利润与估值，提供持续的 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The report anticipates that in February 2026, steel and iron ore will generally experience a volatile market. Steel products may be volatile and weak, while iron ore may be volatile and strong. Specifically, hot-rolled coils may outperform rebar. The main range for rebar is expected to be between 3050 - 3200, and for hot-rolled coils, between 3300 - 3450. The iron ore price will follow the rhythm of steel product profits and molten iron production, with the main range between 730 - 830 [6]. 3. Summary by Directory Part 1: Review - In January 2026, rebar prices were range-bound with limited fluctuations, failing to break above 3200 at the highest and reaching a low of 3085 [9]. - Compared to steel products, iron ore prices were more volatile, showing an inverted V-shaped trend during the month. The main iron ore contract reached a high of 831.5 and a low of 778.0 [12][13]. Part 2: Current Analysis 2.1 Macro Logic - In the long run, GDP is the "anchor" for steel prices. The quality and speed of economic growth determine the long - term central level of steel prices. In 2024, China's GDP growth rate was 5.2%, with positive fixed - asset investment, a narrowing decline in the real estate sector, and strong resilience in infrastructure and manufacturing. Steel prices showed an inverted V - shape, and GDP had a weak positive correlation with steel prices. In 2025, China's GDP growth rate was 5.0%, just meeting the target. Fixed - asset investment growth turned negative, and the decline in the real estate sector widened. Economic growth relied more on consumption, high - end manufacturing, and exports (not the main steel - using sectors). The "basic support" of GDP for steel prices failed, and the steel price center directly shifted downward, showing a weak pattern [17]. 2.2 Supply - Demand Logic - **Real Estate**: Real estate is the core demand source for construction steel, accounting for over 60% of construction steel demand and 25% - 30% of the total national steel demand, but its proportion in total steel demand is decreasing. Since 2021, real estate investment and other indicators have turned negative, and steel prices have been in a downward cycle since then. In 2025, key indicators such as new construction area, construction area, and completion area were all weak, with the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of new construction area at - 20.4%, construction area at - 10.0%, and completion area at - 18.1%. The land transaction area also decreased by 10.4% year - on - year, indicating continued weak demand for construction steel such as rebar [21][24]. - **Infrastructure**: In 2025, the total issuance of special bonds reached a record high, with about 4.59 trillion yuan in new special bonds (45% of the total local bond issuance of 10.29 trillion yuan) and about 3.09 trillion yuan in refinanced special bonds. Special bonds were front - loaded and accelerated in the fourth quarter. They were mainly invested in infrastructure, including urban, transportation, and industrial park projects, accounting for about 46%. In 2025, infrastructure investment decreased by 2.2% year - on - year. In 2026, about 4.6 trillion yuan in new special bonds are expected, along with about 1.5 trillion yuan in ultra - long - term special treasury bonds. The early issuance and accelerated allocation of special bonds in the first quarter will provide financial support for demand recovery in March [27][31]. - **Manufacturing**: In 2025, national manufacturing investment increased by 0.6% year - on - year, a significant decline from 2024. High - end manufacturing such as automobiles, new energy equipment, and ships had high - growth investment, driving demand for high - strength steel, electrical steel, and automotive sheets. In 2025, China's automobile production reached 30.2 million units, a year - on - year increase of 11.5%. In February 2026, production is expected to decline month - on - month due to the Spring Festival, but it will rebound in March [35]. - **Shipbuilding and Machinery**: In 2025, China's shipbuilding completion volume was 42.6 million deadweight tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.4%, with a global share of over 50%. New orders and year - end orders were at high levels. In 2025, the production of excavators, loaders, and other machinery increased. In February 2026, production is expected to decline due to the Spring Festival, but it will recover in March [36]. - **Home Appliances**: In 2025, the overall production of home appliances increased moderately. In February 2026, the planned production of major home appliances decreased by 22.1% year - on - year. In March, production is expected to increase by 15% - 20% month - on - month [36]. - **Steel Exports**: In 2025, China's steel exports reached a record high of 119.019 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.5%, while imports decreased by 11.1%. In February 2026, exports are expected to continue to decline and may turn negative year - on - year. Exports are expected to recover in March, but the rebound will be limited [39]. - **Steel Production**: In 2025, China's crude steel production was 961 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.4%. In February 2026, due to the Spring Festival, steel production decreased significantly. In March, production is expected to rebound significantly, but it will be restricted by various factors and may not exceed the same - period high in 2025 [40]. - **Iron Ore Supply**: In 2025, China imported 1.259 billion tons of iron ore, a year - on - year increase of 1.8%. In February 2026, iron ore demand decreased due to steel mill maintenance. In March, demand is expected to increase as steel mills resume production. Australian and Brazilian mines are in the traditional shipping peak season from February to March, and new mines such as Simandou will gradually increase supply in 2026. In 2025, China's iron ore production decreased by 2.8% year - on - year. In February 2026, production decreased due to the Spring Festival, and it is expected to recover in March, but the production increase is limited [44][47]. 4. Operation Suggestions - **Rebar**: Mainly wait and see. Try to go long lightly at 3050 - 3100 and take profit above 3200; try to go short lightly at 3200 - 3250 with a stop - loss at 3300 [6]. - **Hot - rolled Coils**: Try to go long lightly at 3300 - 3350 and take profit at 3450 - 3500; try to go short lightly above 3450 with a stop - loss at 3500 [5]. - **Iron Ore**: Try to go long lightly at 730 - 750 and take profit above 800; try to go short lightly above 830 with a stop - loss at 900 [5]. - **Spread Trading**: Go long on rebar and short on hot - rolled coils (usually an opportunity appears after the Spring Festival). Layout when the spread is 100 - 120, take profit around 200, and set a stop - loss at 70 [5].

Core Viewpoint - Anyang Steel is forecasting a significant net loss for the year 2025, with an estimated net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately -460 million yuan and a net profit excluding non-recurring items of about -748 million yuan [1] Financial Performance - The company anticipates a substantial year-on-year improvement in overall performance despite the projected losses for 2025 [1] - The operating income in the fourth quarter is expected to slow down compared to the first three quarters due to market challenges, leading to anticipated operating losses during the reporting period [1] Strategic Initiatives - In response to a complex and severe market environment, the company is proactively reducing production while enhancing quality, adjusting production line operations, and emphasizing technological innovation [1] - The company is accelerating its transformation towards special steel, with several high-end products expected to achieve mass production [1] - There is a commitment to systematically reduce costs and to steadfastly promote intelligent transformation and green development [1] Asset Management - The company will need to make adjustments related to asset impairment provisions at the end of the year based on enterprise accounting standards [1]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the carbon neutrality sector, emphasizing the emergence of multi-layered and long-term investment opportunities driven by the "dual carbon" strategy and the deepening of the national carbon market [3][11]. Core Insights - The transition towards a green economy in China has moved from conceptual advocacy to a substantive phase, creating a systematic investment landscape centered around four dimensions: energy system restructuring, industrial green premium, carbon reduction technology expansion, and the rise of supporting services [3][11]. Summary by Sections Carbon Peak and Neutrality Policy Framework - The "14th Five-Year Plan" and "15th Five-Year Plan" are critical periods for achieving carbon peak goals, with a comprehensive "1+N" policy system established to guide the transition [9][18]. - The energy consumption dual control is transitioning to carbon emission dual control, with a three-phase approach leading to comprehensive implementation by 2025 [9][22]. Market-Based Emission Reduction Mechanism - The carbon market's core mechanism is to guide carbon pricing through quotas, CCER, and green certificates [10][31]. - By the end of 2025, the cumulative transaction volume in the national carbon market is expected to reach 860 million tons, with a transaction value of 58.12 billion yuan and an average price of 67.6 yuan per ton [42][43]. Investment Strategy: Four-Dimensional Industrial Opportunities - The dual carbon process will create multi-layered, long-cycle investment opportunities across four dimensions: 1. **Energy System Restructuring**: Focus on new power systems, emphasizing photovoltaic and wind power technology advancements, and integrating non-electric applications like green hydrogen [11]. 2. **Industrial Green Premium**: The internalization of carbon costs is reshaping high-energy-consuming industries, providing cost advantages to companies with low-carbon processes [11]. 3. **Carbon Reduction Technology Breakthroughs**: Technologies in hard-to-abate sectors are entering a phase of scale, with significant demand for energy-saving equipment and recycling technologies [11]. 4. **Emergence of Carbon Management Services**: The assetization of carbon is driving demand for carbon monitoring, accounting platforms, and professional services to help companies manage risks and optimize assets [11].

证券日报网讯1月30日，南钢股份（600282）在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，国际化作为公司重要 战略，公司持续拓展海外重点高端客户，扩大高附加值产品出口。公司主要通过海外营销平台直接向欧 盟客户或贸易商销售，销售的产品包括风电用钢、轴承钢、汽车钢等。 ...

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a significant decline on January 30, with all three major indices dropping over 2%. The Hang Seng Index fell by 2.08%, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index decreased by 2.47%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index dropped by 2.1%. The total market turnover was HKD 301.6 billion, with net buying from southbound funds amounting to HKD 3.22 billion [2][3]. Steel Sector - The steel sector faced a collective downturn, with notable declines in major companies: China Hanking fell by 11.04%, Ansteel fell by 6.05%, Chongqing Iron & Steel dropped by 4.55%, and Maanshan Iron & Steel decreased by 4.24% [4]. - Despite the downturn, some institutions remain optimistic about the steel sector, citing its strong "anti-involution" characteristics and significant profit recovery potential. They believe that quality steel companies will gradually improve their performance, leading to upward elasticity and valuation uplift due to improved supply dynamics. The sector is viewed as having medium to long-term strategic investment opportunities, with a "positive" rating maintained by the brokerage [6]. Gold Sector - Gold stocks collectively plummeted on January 30, following a period of strong gains. Notable declines included Chifeng Jilong Gold falling by 14.38%, Shandong Gold by 14.31%, and Zijin Mining by 10.70% [7]. - Earlier in the year, Chifeng Jilong Gold had seen a cumulative increase of over 30% [8]. Optical Communication Sector - The optical communication sector showed resilience, with Longi Fiber Optic Cable rising by 6.76% despite the overall market decline. This increase is attributed to rising demand for new optical fiber products from overseas data centers, with expectations of price increases in domestic optical fibers by 2026 [10][11]. - Other companies in the optical communication space also saw gains, including Huiju Technology up by 4.59% and Hong Teng Precision up by 4.47% [11]. Company Developments - Giant Legend announced a sales contract for quadruped robots with an independent third party, with production expected to reach mass production by the first quarter of 2026. The company also plans to establish a joint venture for the sales and promotion of consumer-grade IP robots [12][14].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the efforts of Hebei Securities Regulatory Bureau in enhancing the quality and efficiency of listed companies through comprehensive and targeted visits, aiming for high-quality development in the capital market [2]. Group 1: Regulatory and Service Integration - Hebei Securities Regulatory Bureau has prioritized the visitations to listed companies, establishing a comprehensive visiting mechanism that covers all listed companies in the region, ensuring effective understanding of their operational status and addressing their issues [4][9]. - A collaborative mechanism has been formed with various departments and financial institutions to enhance the support for listed companies, creating a multi-faceted service ecosystem involving regulators, government, exchanges, financial institutions, and media [6][10]. Group 2: Problem-Solving and Empowerment - The bureau focuses on addressing the urgent and challenging issues faced by companies, conducting targeted visits to key industries such as electronics and biomedicine, and facilitating solutions to enhance strategic emerging industries [8][12]. - In 2025, 64 listed companies in the region implemented cash dividends totaling 24.652 billion, a 14.70% increase year-on-year, indicating a rising level of shareholder returns [9]. Group 3: Innovative Approaches and Efficiency - The bureau has introduced an integrated approach combining visits and inspections to enhance efficiency, allowing for immediate guidance on minor compliance issues and reducing disruptions to normal business operations [11]. - Training programs have been conducted to improve governance and operational standards among listed companies, with nearly 3,000 participants from 993 companies involved [11]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The bureau plans to continue its regular visitation mechanism, focusing on tracking the progress of issues raised by companies and enhancing collaboration with local governments to ensure effective resolution of various demands [12][28].

新华社北京1月30日电（记者王悦阳）中国钢铁工业协会会长赵民革1月30日表示，"十四五"时期，我国 钢材品种结构向新向优，钢材自给率基本达到100%，高质量、高水平保障了国民经济发展对钢铁的需 求。 【纠错】 【责任编辑:谷玥】 宝钢高强汽车钢、鞍钢高性能长输管线用钢等进入国际第一梯队，首钢京唐高强度变压器壳体用钢、兴 澄特钢大厚度低温韧性超高强海工钢等替代进口，核电、水电、风电、光伏、输变电等专项用钢品种填 补世界空白……"十四五"时期，钢铁行业持续加大研发投入，新技术新产品加速迭代。 据了解，"十四五"期间，钢铁企业在汽车、石油化工、电工等领域全球首发产品160余项，引领世界钢 铁产品创新方向。 近年来，首钢、宝武、鞍钢、河钢、中信泰富特钢等大型钢企凭借技术、质量与服务优势，在高端市场 积极提升品牌影响力，推动高端产品市场占有率稳步提升。钢铁行业将实施"提质创品"工程，聚焦质量 提升核心，加速培育精工产品、绿钢等品牌和具有国际竞争力的质量精品企业。 他是在30日举办的中国钢铁工业协会第十三次会员大会上做出上述表示的。 随着我国产业结构持续优化，钢铁需求结构发生明显变化。数据显示，建筑业用钢占比由2020年 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company expects a significant net loss for the year 2025, with a projected loss of 3.83 billion yuan attributable to shareholders and a loss of 3.92 billion yuan when excluding non-recurring gains and losses [1] Industry Summary - The steel market in 2025 is anticipated to experience weak supply and demand dynamics, along with price fluctuations, although there are signs of improvement in the overall industry situation [1] - The company aims to focus on efficiency-centered development, emphasizing quality and efficiency improvements, and implementing lean production practices to enhance capacity efficiency [1] - The company plans to adjust its product mix, optimize marketing channels, and increase the development of high-quality new customers to strengthen its market competitiveness [1] - Throughout the year, the price gap between steel sales and purchases is expected to narrow, but no significant improvement in overall operating performance is anticipated, leading to continued losses [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company expects a net loss of 3.83 billion yuan for the year 2025, indicating a reduction in losses compared to the previous year [1] Financial Performance - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be a loss of 3.83 billion yuan, which is a decrease in losses by 2.397 billion yuan compared to the same period last year [1] - The net profit after excluding non-recurring gains and losses is expected to be a loss of 3.92 billion yuan, reflecting a reduction in losses by 2.493 billion yuan year-on-year [1] - The basic earnings per share are projected to be a loss of 0.93 yuan per share [1] Market Conditions - The performance decline is attributed to weak supply and demand in the steel market, price fluctuations, and narrowing price spreads [1] - Despite the company's efforts to enhance competitiveness and reduce losses, it is still expected to report a loss for the entire year [1]