2026年开年以来，A股市场持续火热，融资融券（下称两融）余额不断攀升。在笔者看来，2026年A股 市场"开门红"行情"持续旺"，正在讲述一个与以往不同的资本市场故事。 笔者认为，近期A股市场成交额不断增长，体现出较高的市场活跃度和市场热情。值得注意的是，市场 成交额的增长节奏是阶梯式上行，而非单日情绪推动的脉冲放大，这说明本轮行情是稳健上行的。 与此同时，两融余额不断攀升。更有消息称，随着市场回暖，投资者融资需求快速增长，目前个别大中 型券商的两融额度不再充裕。1月14日，经中国证监会批准，沪深北三大交易所调整融资保证金比例， 从80%提高至100%，有意放缓杠杆资金的入市速度。笔者认为，这是监管层引导市场从"快涨"到"稳 涨"的信号，而非打压市场。虽然可能会对市场有短期影响，但不改2026年市场整体上行的态势。 笔者注意到，本轮A股市场上涨的驱动力发生了深刻变化。 市场节奏方面，尽管短期热度高涨，但机构对A股市场的中长期走势保持谨慎乐观。瑞银预计，上半年 市场环境可能更为有利，但下半年市场焦点将转向盈利兑现，7月至8月是观察企业盈利情况的重要时间 窗口。 笔者认为，后续市场上行态势能否延续，取决于企业估值 ...

Core Viewpoint - Shandong Province is implementing a "financial chain master" strategy to support 19 key industrial chains by designating specific banks to provide targeted financial services, thereby facilitating capital flow to small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) within these chains [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Chain Master Strategy - Shandong has selected 14 banks, including Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Hengfeng Bank, and Qilu Bank, to serve as financial chain masters for its 19 key industrial chains [2]. - Qilu Bank has been designated as the financial chain master for the petrochemical industry, leveraging the credit of major companies like Jingbo Holdings Group to support their suppliers [2][3]. Group 2: Financial Products and Services - Qilu Bank introduced a new financial product called "Quanshin Chain," allowing suppliers to receive immediate cash against electronic payment certificates issued by core enterprises like Jingbo Holdings [2][3]. - The product provides Jingbo Holdings with a supply chain financing credit of 150 million yuan, which helps stabilize the supply chain by enabling quick payments to suppliers [3]. Group 3: Impact on SMEs - The "Quanshin Chain" service has already covered nearly 100 suppliers of Jingbo Holdings, with average loans around 500,000 yuan, and the lowest being 20,000 yuan, offering lower interest rates compared to traditional corporate loans [3]. - This initiative has created a "1+N" model in Shandong, where one financial chain master collaborates with multiple financial institutions to provide tailored financial services to enterprises [3][4]. Group 4: Future Plans - The Shandong Provincial Financial Office aims to promote comprehensive service plans tailored to the 19 key industrial chains, focusing on various financial instruments such as loans, equity, guarantees, and insurance [4].

这一系列操作紧密围绕科技、绿色、普惠、养老、数字金融"五篇大文章"，旨在不搞"大水漫灌"的前提 下，精准引导金融资源流向重点领域和薄弱环节，服务经济转型升级。 近期银行板块有所调整，近一个月中证银行指数下跌约4%，位于20日均线附近。市场观点指出，当前 政策着力点清晰，或是关注银行板块时机。数据显示，银行ETF华夏跟踪中证银行指数，是同指数综合 费率最低的投资标的。 2026年1月15日，央行宣布，自1月19日起下调各类结构性货币政策工具利率0.25个百分点。其中，一年 期各类再贷款利率降至1.25%。此举并非全面降息，而是通过再贷款等工具进行定向调控。 分析认为，结构性降息主要发挥两大作用。一是"促投放"：通过降低银行从央行获取资金的成本，提升 其向普惠、科创等重点领域发放贷款的积极性，加速信贷落地。二是"降成本"：结构性工具利率显著低 于市场水平，有助于缓解银行息差压力，并通过银行传导，最终降低实体经济的融资成本。 与降息同步，央行对再贷款工具进行了显著扩容与创新。支农支小再贷款、科技创新与技术改造再贷款 额度分别新增5000亿元和4000亿元，并特别单设额度达1万亿元的民营企业再贷款，直指改善民企融资 ...

1月16日，恒生指数高开0.64%，恒生科技指数涨0.94%。盘面上，芯片股强势，中芯国际、华虹半导体 涨近2%；医药股走弱。 关于港股后市 兴业证券认为，优先推荐互联网龙头为代表的中国AI领域领头羊，认为有望迎来内、外资共振做多。 其次，建议关注红利资产——低利率时代下的战略性高胜率生息资产，建议关注保险、银行、能源、物 管、公用环保等行业机会。第三，建议关注新消费领域。新消费可关注三条主线：一是以连锁酒店为主 的传统服务型消费转型；二是Z世代消费，如潮玩、美护龙头机会；三是高端消费。 本文转载自"腾讯自选股"，智通财经编辑：蒋远华。 招商证券认为，上周港股走势滞后A股主因海外流动性博弈。美国失业率降至4.4%支撑联储1月暂停降 息(概率95.6%)，降息路径需待1月19-23日新任主席人选明朗。然而，上证站稳4,000点也锁死了港股下 行空间。港股虽缺乏A股热炒的商业航天/军工/可控核聚变等稀缺题材，但随着情绪回升，南向资金将 驱动港股科技板块开启补涨。该机构认为，恒科受益于CES 2026等事件催化、互联网权重股业绩压制 见底、上市公司AI产业链重塑等三大利好，看好"春季躁动"。 华泰证券认为，在经历一 ...

根据业绩披露规则，年报披露季部分上市公司会提前发布业绩预告或业绩快报，而且相对于业绩预告， 业绩快报的准确性更强。截至1月16日，共17家公司发布了2025年业绩快报。 | 600101 | 明星电 | 01.16 | 30.18 | 6.20 | 1.84 | -12.15 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 力 | | | | | | | 601918 | 新集能 源 | 01.13 | 123.43 | -3.02 | 20.64 | -13.73 | | 600729 | 重庆百 货 | 01.15 | 147.12 | -14.16 | 10.21 | -22.36 | | 600456 | 宝钛股 份 | 01.16 | 61.73 | -7.26 | 4.16 | -27.90 | 证券时报·数据宝统计显示，公布业绩快报公司中，营业收入最高的是中信银行，去年实现营业收入 2124.75亿元，同比增长-0.55%；其次是浦发银行、长江电力，去年营业收入分别为1739.64亿元、 858.82亿元。增幅方面，11家公司营业收入同比增长， ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guosen Securities indicates that the decline in net interest margin (NIM) for China's banking industry is expected to significantly converge by 2026, suggesting that the current downtrend in NIM may be nearing its end, contrasting sharply with the previous two years of uncertainty in the industry [1] Group 1: Banking Sector Outlook - Guosen Securities predicts that the fundamental bottoming of the banking sector will drive a valuation premium recovery for quality individual stocks [1] - The report emphasizes that resident confidence is the core variable influencing the flow of funds, rather than the performance of financial products, as evidenced by trends in Japanese asset allocation [2] Group 2: Historical Context and Confidence Impact - The report draws parallels with Japan's experience, noting that from 1995 to 2003, despite a significant decline in deposit rates, there was no major shift in deposits due to a lack of resident confidence amid economic downturns [2][3] - It highlights that the shift in asset allocation towards higher-risk assets in Japan only occurred after a substantial recovery in resident confidence from 2003 to 2004, reinforcing the idea that confidence drives asset allocation [3] Group 3: Current Trends in Japan - Japanese residents have not moved their deposits out, but the trend of activating deposits has intensified as the proportion of transferable deposits has increased from 11.4% in 1994 to 65% by the end of the 2024 fiscal year [4] - The report suggests a strategic investment approach of "stable base + offensive combination," recommending banks such as China Merchants Bank, CITIC Bank, Ningbo Bank, Changsha Bank, and Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank for the offensive combination [4]

Market Sentiment - The current market sentiment score is 70, indicating a "relatively hot" market condition, which suggests a positive outlook for the near term [6][9][19]. Key Themes Robotics - The recent release of the "Strong Chain and Supplement Chain Action Plan (2026-2027)" by Hangzhou aims to enhance the competitiveness of the robotics industry, particularly in embodied intelligence. This initiative will drive breakthroughs in core technology, key component localization, application scenarios, and industry ecosystem integration [6]. - Related stocks include Sanhua Intelligent Control (002050) and Wolong Electric Drive (600580) [6]. Banking - Bank stocks are characterized by high dividend yields, with the CSI Bank Index yielding 6.02%, significantly higher than the 10-year government bond yield. In a slowing economy with increased market volatility, bank stocks are becoming important investment targets for long-term funds such as insurance and social security [6]. - Related stocks include Agricultural Bank of China (601288) and Ningbo Bank (002142) [6]. Retail - The National Business Work Conference held on January 10-11 set the tone for consumer stimulation and market construction in 2026. The conference emphasized the implementation of consumption-boosting actions and retail innovation, injecting long-term growth momentum into the industry [6]. - Related stocks include Yonghui Superstores (601933) and Wangfujing (600859) [6]. Capital Flow - The top ten stocks with the highest net inflow include Luxshare Precision (002475) with a net inflow of approximately 268.92 million, and Zhongji Xuchuang (300308) with about 177.04 million [10]. - The top ten stocks with the highest net buy in financing include Zhongji Xuchuang (300308) with 169.81 million and Luxshare Precision (002475) with 144.66 million [12]. Industry Performance - The electronic sector led the net inflow of capital with 997.18 million, followed by the banking sector with 163.44 million. In contrast, the media sector experienced the highest net outflow of 1,028.57 million [15][20].

金融业监管 2025年度 数据处罚分析及洞察建议 "监"听则明 麦好在种，秋好在管 2025年度监管处罚机构总览 2025年 1 ，人民银行及国家金融监督管理总局（以下简称"金融监管总局"） 向银行、保险、证券等金融机构共开出罚单1366张，处罚金 2 15.6亿元，其 中人民银行处罚涉及367家法人，金融监管总局处罚涉及313家法人 3 。 近三年监管处罚机构总览表 | | | 法人 | | 罚单 | | 罚金 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 数量 （家） | 比上年增幅 | 数量 （张） | 比上年增幅 | 金额 （亿元） | 比上年增幅 | | 2023年 | 人民银行 | 319 | 17.71% | 661 | 36.29% | 51.56 | 1235.75% | | | 金融监管总局 | 495 | 28.91% | 2130 | 33.13% | 42.54 | 550.46% | | 2024年 | 人民银行 | 166 | -47.96% | 174 | -73.68% | 2.07 | -95.99% ...

| 晨会纪要 | | --- | | 数据日期:2026-01-15 | 上证综指 | 深证成指沪深 | 300 指数 | 中小板综指 | 创业板综指 | 科创 50 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘指数（点） | 4112.60 | 14306.72 | 4751.42 | 15440.35 | 4193.07 | 1493.94 | | 涨跌幅度（%） | -0.32 | 0.40 | 0.20 | 0.12 | -0.39 | -0.46 | | 成交金额（亿元） | 11759.15 | 17295.81 | 6740.58 | 5966.58 | 8412.62 | 958.46 | $$\overline{{{\mathbb{M}}}}\cong\pm\overline{{{\mathbb{M}}}}$$ ($\frac{\pi}{10}$) 宏观与策略 宏观快评:12 月金融数据解读-企业融资超季节性回暖 策略专题:26 年 A 股向上的五大微观动能——2026 年牛市展望系列 2 行业与公司 证券研究报告 | 2026年01月 ...

本报讯 记者马玲报道 1月15日，国家外汇管理局公布了2025年12月银行结售汇和银行代客涉外收付 款数据。数据显示，2025年12月，银行结汇22446亿元人民币，售汇15382亿元人民币。2025年1至12 月，银行累计结汇185227亿元人民币，累计售汇171314亿元人民币。 2025年12月，银行代客涉外收入58197亿元人民币，对外付款50186亿元人民币。2025年1至12月， 银行代客累计涉外收入569405亿元人民币，累计对外付款547906亿元人民币。 按美元计值，2025年12月，银行代客涉外收入8244亿美元，对外付款7109亿美元。2025年1至12 月，银行代客累计涉外收入79725亿美元，累计对外付款76704亿美元。 按美元计值，2025年12月，银行结汇3180亿美元，售汇2179亿美元。2025年1至12月，银行累计结 汇25949亿美元，累计售汇23983亿美元。 责任编辑：袁浩 ...