▍数据的"面子"与"里子" ： 春节错位因素导致去年同期基数偏低，这一统计学上的扰动显著放大了今年开年的同比读数。若剔除这 一季节性因素，单纯审视环比数据，我们发现市场的内生修复动力依然偏弱。当前的成交热度很大程度 上源于被压抑的存量需求在政策窗口期的集中释放，以及部分特定区域的偶发性回暖，尚未形成覆盖新 房与二手房、核心与非核心区域的全面复苏。新房市场在经历短暂的脉冲后，仍面临"倒春寒"的风险， 需求的持续性仍待3月传统旺季数据的进一步验证。 ▍价格体系的重塑与隐忧： 本文来自格隆汇专栏：中信证券研究，作者：明明 孙毓铭 ▍政策合力与表层回暖： 2026年伊始，在中央及地方密集出台的政策组合拳推动下，中国房地产市场部分高频数据呈现回暖迹 象。我们旨在探讨这一回暖究竟是受春节错位影响的季节性脉冲，还是市场内生动力的趋势性拐点。通 过剔除基数效应与季节性扰动，我们发现当前销售复苏主要集中在核心城市二手房，且受春节因素推高 同比读数明显，新房市场及投资端依然偏弱。尽管价格体系出现止跌企稳信号，但高库存、低租金回报 率以及政府收储带来的价格天花板效应，仍构成结构性制约。最为核心的是，当前销售回暖向投资回升 的传导机 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the construction and decoration industry, particularly focusing on state-owned enterprises such as China State Construction and China Railway Construction [4][17]. Core Insights - The real estate industry is experiencing a stabilization in expectations due to positive policy catalysts since the beginning of 2026, with a focus on stabilizing expectations, reducing costs, enhancing guarantees, and promoting transformation [10][4]. - Key policies include tax exemptions on housing sales after two years, reduced mortgage rates, and relaxed financing regulations, which are expected to stimulate demand and improve market conditions [10][4]. - The average price of new residential properties in 100 cities in China increased by 0.18% month-on-month and 2.52% year-on-year in January 2026, indicating marginal improvement in sales prices [2][11]. - The transaction volume of second-hand houses in 13 monitored cities rose by 16% month-on-month and 33% year-on-year in January 2026, suggesting a recovery in market activity [2][11]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report highlights that the real estate sector has seen a significant decline in key metrics, with investment, sales area, and sales amount dropping by 44% to 74% from their peak values, reaching historical lows [2][14]. - It is anticipated that the decline in these metrics will narrow, leading to a gradual bottoming out of the industry [13][2]. Company Analysis - Major construction companies like China State Construction, China Railway Construction, and Shanghai Construction are expected to benefit directly from the recovery in real estate sales, which will drive profit and valuation recovery [3][15]. - The report emphasizes that the real estate business accounts for a significant portion of these companies' revenues and assets, with China State Construction's real estate revenue accounting for 12% and gross profit for 20% [15][16]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the construction and decoration sectors, including China State Construction (PE 4.4X, dividend yield 5.5%), China Railway Construction (PE 4.6X, dividend yield 4.0%), and Shanghai Construction (PE 13X) [4][17]. - Other notable mentions include decoration leader Jin Tanglong (PE 16X) and design leader Huayang International (PE 22X) [4][17].

新京报贝壳财经讯2月8日，2连板皇庭国际（000056）公告，公司A股股票于2026年2月5日、2026年2月 6日连续两个交易日收盘价格涨幅偏离值累计超过20%，属于股票交易异常波动情形。经核查，公司前 期披露的信息不存在需要更正或补充披露的事项，未发现近期公共传媒报道了可能或已经对公司股票交 易价格产生较大影响的未公开重大信息，公司经营情况正常，近期内外部经营环境未发生重大变化，公 司、控股股东和实际控制人不存在关于公司的应披露而未披露的重大事项，或处于筹划阶段的重大事 项，控股股东、实际控制人在公司股票异常波动期间未买卖公司股票。 ...

[Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 [姓名table_Authors] 电话 邮箱 登记编号 涂力磊(分析师) 021-23185710 tulilei@gtht.com S0880525040101 谢皓宇(分析师) 010-83939826 xiehaoyu@gtht.com S0880518010002 谢盐(分析师) 021-23185696 xieyan@gtht.com S0880525040098 本报告导读： 上周（1 月 30 日-2 月 5 日）地产成交分化。上周政策面保持平静，房企持续减少 拿地有助于新房成交的逐步回稳。维持行业"增持"评级。 投资要点： [Table_Report] 相关报告 房地产《第 5周成交震荡，房企降杠杆有利未来高 质量发展》2026.02.01 房地产《商业不动产 REITs，资产出表再添工具》 2026.01.31 房地产《核心销售趋于均衡，投资开发仍需助力》 2026.01.29 房地产《第 4周成交涨跌互现，供给下降有利市场 重获均衡》2026.01.25 房地产《通胀好转，资产价格预期受益》2026.01.20 证 券 研 究 报 告 第 6 ...

拆解省政府工作报告，信用债有哪些机会 [Table_Authors] 王宇辰(分析师) 信用债市场周度回顾 260208 本报告导读： 2026 年将成为隐债清零和退平台的大年，后续转型依赖区域资源禀赋。 投资要点： | | 010-83939801 | | --- | --- | | | wangyuchen4@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880523020004 | | | 张紫睿(分析师) | | | 021-23185652 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 券 研 究 市 场 策 略 高位震荡，低估值因子占优 2026.02.07 2 月抓住资金层面的确定性 2026.02.03 纯债 ETF 持续净赎回，债基策略趋防御 2026.02.02 首批商业不动产 REITs 集中申报 2026.02.01 信用债修复下半场：票息主导，攻守兼备 2026.02.01 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 债 周 报 债券研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.02.08 zhangzirui@gtht.com 登记编号 S0880525040068 [Ta ...

多年来，沈北道义板块的发展有目共睹。时至今日，板块 配套设施日益完善、 幢幢高楼鳞次栉比、 交通路网内通外联…… 近两年，虽然道义板块新盘锐减，仅入市中金壹号院、荣信森林之境等项目，但产品品质大幅提升。随着蒲丰路南-1地块、蒲丰路南-3地块的成交，这种 趋势将得以延续。 随着楼市进入调整期，道义板块 供地节奏放缓，去年 板块仅成交两宗宅地。蒲田路北-3地块、蒲田路北-9地块，均被沈阳沈北新区公共服务建设有限公 司以单价2100元/建筑平方米摘得。 2月6日，重磅消息传来，道义板块将再挂牌交易两宗地块，楼市继续"上新"。 容积率1.3 起始价2500 道义将再拍两地 据悉，经沈阳市人民政府批准，沈阳市自然资源局（沈阳市土地储备中心承办）组织挂牌交易蒲丰路南-1地块、蒲丰路南-3地块。挂牌交易时间为2026年 2月26日（星期四）至2026年3月10日（星期二）14时。 | | | | | | | | 沈土挂[2026]1号挂牌交易地块情况说明表 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

2026年02月08日 《房地产行业 2026 年投资策略： 潮平待 风起，扬帆更远航》 2025/11/17 《好房子的另类破局之道，引领核心城市 五重共振——好房子专题报告系列之三》 2025/09/10 证券分析师 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 顾铮 A0230525120002 guzheng@swsresearch.com 研究支持 顾铮 A0230525120002 guzheng@swsresearch.com 联系人 顾铮 A0230525120002 guzheng@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务号 1. 行业数据 1.1 新房成交量 1.1.1 成交周环比：上周 34 城周成交环比下降 6.9%，一二线环比下降 商业不动产 REITs 密集申报， 二手住房用于保租房 — 地产及物管行业周报（2026/1/31-2026/2/6） 本期投资提示: 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 相关研究 地产行业数据：新房、二手房成交环比均回落，新房成交推盘比回升。上周(1.31- 0 2.6)34 个重点城市新房合计成 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors, highlighting the recovery potential of quality real estate companies and commercial real estate [2][31]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the real estate sector is approaching a bottom in its fundamentals after a deep adjustment, with recent central government policies aimed at stabilizing the market. The report emphasizes the importance of quality real estate companies, predicting that their profit recovery will occur sooner and be more resilient [2][31]. - The report recommends several quality real estate companies and commercial real estate firms, including Jianfa International, Binjiang Group, Greentown China, China Jinmao, and Poly Development, as well as commercial real estate firms like New City Holdings and China Resources Land [2][31]. Industry Data Summary New Home Transactions - In the week of January 31 to February 6, 2026, new home transactions in 34 key cities totaled 1.974 million square meters, a week-on-week decrease of 6.9%. The transaction volume in first and second-tier cities decreased by 3.1%, while third and fourth-tier cities saw a significant drop of 39.4% [3][4]. - Year-on-year, new home transactions in February increased by 327.2%, with first and second-tier cities up by 347.8% and third and fourth-tier cities up by 168.9% [4][10]. Second-Hand Home Transactions - In the same week, second-hand home transactions in 13 key cities totaled 1.198 million square meters, also down by 6.9% week-on-week. However, year-to-date transactions showed a 27.4% increase compared to the previous year [10][31]. Inventory and Supply - The report notes that 15 cities had a total of 290,000 square meters of new supply, with a sales-to-supply ratio of 2.62 times. The total available residential area in these cities was 88.525 million square meters, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.52% [21][31]. Policy and News Tracking - The report highlights significant policy developments, including the acceleration of commercial real estate REITs applications, with over 10 applications submitted to exchanges as of February 6, 2026. Additionally, Shanghai is advancing the acquisition of second-hand homes for rental housing, with pilot areas identified [31][32]. - Various regions, including Tianjin, Sichuan, and Hainan, have adjusted the minimum down payment ratio for commercial property loans to no less than 30% [31][32].

近日，位于昌平回天地区的龙泽邻里中心正加快项目收尾，即将于今年春节焕新亮相。这座邻里中心是 由废弃储煤场通过城市更新方式改造而成的社区服务综合体，包含便民食堂、生活超市、养老驿站、卫 生服务站、党群中心等多重功能，可满足周边4个小区、约1.9万居民日常生活、社交互动、文化体验等 民生需求。其中，超市、快剪、面包房已经试营业，便民食堂等将于节后陆续开业。 春节前夕，尽管邻里中心还没正式开业，已有不少热心居民提前过来打听开业时间。"这个项目我都盼 了好几年了，啥时候开门呀？"居民侯大姐问。每当听到这类问题，龙泽园街道龙泽苑社区党委书记伊 然总会笑着答："很快了，您可以先进去瞅瞅！" 项目改造前为闲置储煤场。 走进这座全新的邻里中心，两层约1600平方米的空间内，设计了丰富的功能场景。西侧紧邻社区的生活 超市已率先试营业，货架上肉蛋果蔬、米面粮油十分齐全，为了春节供应稳定，老板特意提前进行了充 足备货，每天还拿出如鸡蛋等单品做特价促销，刚开业就得到了大伙的认可。 超市旁边是居民最为期待的便民食堂，目前正加紧安装设备，做开业前最后的准备。项目运营方、天恒 集团相关负责人张智跃介绍，食堂将面向全年龄段居民，提供助老惠民 ...

格隆汇2月8日丨北京市住建委官网数据显示，2月7日北京新房网签165套，网签面积13375.32平方米， 其中住宅网签49套，网签面积6708.02平方米；二手房网签208套，网签面积17051.39平方米，其中住宅 网签196套，网签面积16549.08平方米。 ...