金十数据7月22日讯，广发证券指出，目前生猪行业持续盈利时间达14个月，反映本轮周期行业供给增 长幅度有限，预计三季度猪价有望迎来季节性反弹。在"反内卷"政策背景下，行业产能或有望逐步平 稳，中长期盈利中枢有望抬升。当前板块估值仍处于相对低位，优选成本优势的龙头企业。 广发证券：预计三季度猪价有望迎来季节性反弹 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [1][8][64] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the long-term value reassessment opportunities in the pig industry, with expectations of price fluctuations in the range of 14-15 CNY/kg post-Chinese New Year 2025, indicating a potential downward trend in prices due to supply pressures [4][15] - The poultry sector is experiencing price declines, with a focus on marginal improvements in the cycle, while the animal health sector is expected to see performance recovery and investment opportunities in the pet medical industry [5][6][28] - The pet economy is thriving, with domestic brands rapidly emerging, and the report anticipates continued improvement in industry profitability [7][58] Summary by Sections 1. Pig Industry - The average price of pigs is currently around 14.6 CNY/kg, with a slight weekly decline [14] - The report recommends companies with low costs and strong financials, specifically highlighting Wens Foodstuffs, Muyuan Foods, and Juxing Agriculture [15][64] 2. Poultry Industry - The report notes a decline in poultry prices, with a focus on the cyclical improvements expected in the future [27] - Recommendations include Shennong Development and Lihua Stock [5][28] 3. Animal Health - The animal health sector is expected to see a recovery in performance, supported by the profitability of the pig farming industry [6][38] - Investment opportunities in the pet medical sector are highlighted, with a market size of approximately 840 billion CNY [7][38] 4. Planting Industry - The report indicates a decrease in wheat and corn prices, with recommendations for companies involved in genetically modified seeds [44][50] 5. Feed Industry - The total industrial feed production in the first half of 2025 reached 15,850 million tons, showing a year-on-year growth of 7.7% [48][50] - Recommendations include Haida Group and attention to He Feng Stock [50] 6. Pet Industry - The pet consumption market is projected to reach 300.2 billion CNY in 2024, with a growth rate of 7.5% [55][58] - Recommended companies in the pet food sector include Guai Bao Pet, Zhongchong Stock, and Petty Stock [58][64]

Summary of the Conference Call on the Swine Industry Industry Overview - The swine farming sector is undergoing a fundamental transformation, shifting focus from growth and cycles to sustainable free cash flow and supply constraints, indicating a more stable profit capacity and development outlook for the industry [1][2][8] - The government is raising pig prices to control CPI and curb deflation, leveraging the positive correlation between swine prices and CPI, and utilizing China's dual economic structure to achieve macroeconomic goals [1][4][5] Key Points and Arguments - The swine farming industry is facing medium-term supply constraints, with measures in place to limit financing and enforce environmental regulations to prevent large enterprises from blindly expanding [1][6][8] - The production capacity control aims to reduce the breeding sow stock to 39.5 million and decrease the average weight of pigs at slaughter to 120 kg, which is expected to be easily achievable. A 6% reduction in production capacity could lead to a 30% increase in pork prices, significantly enhancing industry profitability [1][10][12] - High-quality companies like Muyuan Foods and Dekang Agriculture are expected to achieve substantial profits, with projections of 47 billion yuan and 9 billion yuan, respectively, due to long-term supply constraints leading to sustained free cash flow growth [1][14] Important but Overlooked Content - The current phase of the swine farming industry is characterized by a shift from heavy asset, low turnover models to light asset, high turnover models, as demonstrated by Dekang Agriculture's efficient operations with a ROE of 38% [3][18][21] - The historical context of the swine farming sector indicates that it is not an over-saturated industry, and the current changes present a significant opportunity, regarded as the second historical opportunity since the African swine fever outbreak [2][15] - The competitive landscape is expected to optimize, with quality enterprises having opportunities despite production expansion limitations. Profitability per pig could potentially triple, reflecting the importance of profit certainty and sustainability [24] Future Outlook - The swine farming industry is anticipated to have a positive outlook for 2025, with favorable conditions such as price controls expected to significantly enhance key financial metrics for leading companies like Dekang Agriculture [25]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - The pig industry is experiencing a slight increase in breeding stock in Q2, with high profitability and a trend towards "de-involution" [2] - The latest pig price is 14.39 CNY/kg, with an average slaughter weight of 128.83 kg, indicating a potential for price stability despite slight fluctuations [3][13] - The Ministry of Agriculture's monitoring shows a 0.8% decrease in the national inventory of large pigs in June, suggesting a reduction in pig slaughter in July and August [3][47] Summary by Sections 1. Pig Industry - Breeding stock has slightly increased, with a national breeding sow inventory of 40.43 million heads, a year-on-year increase of 0.12% [4][13] - The industry has maintained profitability for 14 consecutive months, with 11 out of 14 listed companies forecasting increased performance for the first half of 2025 [4] - The Ministry of Agriculture is implementing capacity regulation policies to stabilize pig prices, indicating a strong commitment to maintaining price stability [4][13] - Recommended companies include Dekang Agriculture, Muyuan Foods, and Wens Foodstuff Group, focusing on cost-leading enterprises with strong profit certainty for 2025 [4] 2. Poultry Industry - The price of chicken seedlings in Yantai is 1.9 CNY/bird, up 27% month-on-month but down 40% year-on-year; the price of broiler chickens is 3.3 CNY/kg, up 3.8% month-on-month [5][14] - The industry faces a "high capacity, weak consumption" contradiction, leading to a reduction in production capacity among breeding farms [5][14] - Key investment focuses include high-return enterprises with sustainable ROE improvements, such as Yisheng Livestock and Shennong Development [5][14] 3. Feed Industry - The prices of various aquatic products have shown positive performance, with significant year-on-year increases for several species [6][15] - Recommended company is Haida Group, which is expected to benefit from industry recovery and improved management effectiveness [6][15] 4. Pet Industry - The uncertainty of tariffs and export fluctuations in Q2 have impacted the pet sector, but long-term effects are expected to be limited due to strong brand positioning and overseas factory layouts [7][17] 5. Agricultural Products - There is significant uncertainty regarding soybean imports in Q4, with August 1 being a critical date for monitoring US-China trade negotiations [8][18] - Natural rubber prices are expected to maintain a strong trend due to favorable macroeconomic conditions [8][18] 6. Market and Price Situation - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index closed at 4059, up 1.09% from the previous week, while the Agricultural Index closed at 2755, down 0.14% [19][21] - The livestock sector index is at 3071, indicating a stable performance amidst market fluctuations [19][35]

精准定制：徽丰实业创新期权方案，助力生猪养殖保价增收 山东某具有区域影响力的生猪养殖一体化服务企业，在向集团核心客户及同业提供生猪保价服务过程 中，寻求更精细化的风险管理方案。徽商期货风险管理子公司——徽丰实业（上海）有限公司深度对接 客户需求，创新性地为分批投保的养殖户设计了增强亚式看跌期权保价方案。该方案核心在于缩短采价 期至客户集中出栏时段，并优化结算方式，从而精准对冲出栏期生猪价格下跌风险，显著提升保价效 果。其亮点在于：一是推动企业客户服务升级，依托该保价方案助力集团客户构建"保价合同+订单+融 资"的新模式，有效降低企业融资成本及银行资金风险；二是打造可复制推广模式，方案充分契合养殖 户按批次投保锁定目标价格、在集中出栏期采价锁定利润的现实需求，成功为全国农业企业、规模化种 养殖场及合作社提供了极具参考价值的农产品场外期权保价服务范本。 润物则广，向心而聚。公司将持续秉承徽商精神，坚持"感恩、合作、共赢、使命"的价值观，以更加完 备的服务体系、更加专业的服务水平、更加饱满的服务热情，竭力为广大产业客户提供更全面更优质的 服务，做品牌突出、行业领先的期货与衍生品服务商。 近日，徽商期货选送的《全方位 ...

Core Viewpoint - The "anti-involution" theme is gaining traction across various industries, leading to significant price increases in commodities such as polysilicon, lithium carbonate, and rebar, with A-shares reflecting a strong performance in sectors like steel, photovoltaic, and building materials [2][3]. Group 1: Photovoltaic Industry - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing overcapacity, prompting major manufacturers to announce a 30% production cut, which has led to a rebound in polysilicon prices [3][4]. - Key players in the photovoltaic sector, such as Tongwei and LONGi Green Energy, are supporting government policies aimed at eliminating low-price competition and phasing out outdated production capacity [3]. - Companies with core competitive advantages, like Yamaton, which has developed ultra-thin photovoltaic glass technology, are expected to benefit from market consolidation, with Yamaton's stock rising over 50% in the past month [3][5]. Group 2: Steel Industry - The steel industry is responding to the "anti-involution" call, with the China Iron and Steel Association advocating for a new capacity governance mechanism to prevent overcapacity and maintain healthy competition [6]. - A reduction of 30 million tons in crude steel production by 2025 could potentially increase profit margins by 229 yuan per ton, indicating a possible doubling of industry profits [6]. - The steel sector's current price-to-book ratio is at 1.04, suggesting it is undervalued compared to historical levels, with specific segments like ordinary steel showing a price-to-book ratio of 0.88 [6]. Group 3: Cement Industry - The cement industry is also accelerating its "anti-involution" efforts, with the China Cement Association promoting structural optimization and high-quality development [7][8]. - The commencement of a major hydropower project in Tibet, with an investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, is expected to significantly boost cement demand in the region [9]. Group 4: Coal Industry - The coal industry is facing significant challenges, with over 50% of companies reporting losses due to falling prices, prompting calls for self-regulation and a reduction in production to stabilize the market [10][11]. - The focus on improving supply quality and controlling production rates is seen as essential for achieving a more sustainable coal market [10]. Group 5: Other Industries - The "anti-involution" sentiment is spreading to other sectors, including the automotive industry, where companies are advocating against price wars to protect profit margins [12]. - In the livestock sector, leading companies are reducing breeding stock to manage supply and stabilize prices, reflecting a broader trend of capacity control [15]. - The express delivery industry is also moving towards "anti-involution," with regulatory measures aimed at curbing excessive competition and improving operational efficiency [16].

Group 1 - COFCO Jiajia Kang (01610.HK) was fined 120,900 yuan for transporting unquarantined pigs, raising concerns about supply chain management and food safety [3] - The company has not issued cash dividends for three consecutive years, with the last payout in 2021, despite cumulative net profits exceeding 4.4 billion yuan from 2020 to 2024 [3] - As of 2024, COFCO Jiajia Kang's cash on hand is only 1.064 billion yuan, nearly halved from the previous year, while short-term debts due within a year amount to 2.6 billion yuan, resulting in a cash-to-short-debt ratio of 0.41 [3] Group 2 - The company has increasingly relied on external financing to manage liquidity risks, with significant fluctuations in financing cash flow from 2022 to 2024, indicating a fragile cash flow situation [4] - The pig farming industry is significantly affected by the "pig cycle," requiring companies to have strong risk resilience; COFCO Jiajia Kang must improve cash flow management and compliance to avoid a passive position under competitive and debt pressures [4] - Investors are concerned whether the company will prioritize debt repayment over shareholder returns given its high debt levels [4]

Investment Rating - Investment rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The industry is experiencing a supply contraction due to overselling of live pigs since June, leading to a potential increase in pig prices in Q3 2025. The average selling price of live pigs in June 2025 was 14.28 yuan/kg, down 2.28% month-on-month and down 21.99% year-on-year [4][15] - The supply-demand dynamics are improving, with the gross white price difference strengthening month-on-month. As of July 17, 2025, the gross white price difference was 4.71 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.45 yuan/kg compared to June, although lower than the same period in 2024 [5][27] - The industry is entering a critical supply contraction phase, with expectations for the price center of live pigs to rise monthly [4][15] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - Since June, the overselling of live pigs has intensified, leading to a supply contraction. The average price of live pigs in June 2025 was 14.28 yuan/kg, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 2.28% and a year-on-year decrease of 21.99% [4][15] - The monitoring sample indicated a slaughter volume of 4.3168 million heads in June 2025, down 6.20% month-on-month but up 12.22% year-on-year [4][15] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The gross white price difference has improved, indicating a stronger supply-demand balance. The national frozen product storage rate was 16.85%, down 0.03 percentage points year-on-year [5][27] - The industry is currently in a supply contraction phase, with expectations for the price center of live pigs to rise gradually [4][15] Company Performance - As of July 10, 2025, 12 listed pig farming companies reported a total of 16.1481 million heads sold in June, a year-on-year increase of 45.98% [6][34] - The average selling prices for major listed pig companies decreased month-on-month, with specific companies reporting the following prices: Muyuan Foods at 14.08 yuan/kg, Wens Foodstuff Group at 14.39 yuan/kg, and New Hope Liuhe at 14.18 yuan/kg [7][41]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **pork industry** and the **pet supply chain** market in China, focusing on recent trends, regulatory impacts, and market dynamics. Key Points on the Pork Industry 1. **Pork Price Trends**: Pork prices are on a downward trend due to supply influences, with prices fluctuating around 14 RMB after a brief increase to over 15 RMB in June. This aligns with expectations of high annual output and piglet replenishment rates, indicating limited short-term price increases [1][2]. 2. **Regulatory Impact**: The government aims to stabilize pork supply and prevent price surges, with large farming enterprises playing a crucial role. Stricter measures may be implemented, including environmental regulations and financial controls, to achieve long-term stabilization [1][5]. 3. **Market Dynamics**: The pork industry is undergoing a natural price decline and capacity reduction process. Leading companies like Muyuan Foods are becoming more resilient in the competitive landscape, transitioning from cyclical to value stocks, making them attractive for long-term investment [1][7]. 4. **Production Forecast**: The pork price outlook for Q3 and H2 remains cautious, with high production levels expected to persist. The growth in output is anticipated to keep prices low, as the supply of pigs is not expected to decrease significantly in the short term [4][6]. 5. **Vaccination Developments**: The approval of clinical trials for African swine fever subunit vaccines is a positive development, although the timeline for market availability remains uncertain. This could directly impact companies like BioFeng and Zhongmu [3][15]. Key Points on the Pet Supply Chain 1. **Market Performance**: The pet consumption market showed strong performance in H1 2025, with total spending reaching approximately 77.3 billion RMB, an 8.8% year-on-year increase. Online sales dominate, while offline pet store sales grew only about 1% [8][9]. 2. **Trends in Pet Food**: The pet food market is experiencing product diversification and precision in consumer demand. High-end products and scientific pet care concepts are driving market upgrades, with categories like baked food seeing rapid growth [9][12]. 3. **Emerging Brands**: New brands are quickly rising by meeting consumer needs, indicating a shift towards higher quality and specialized products in the pet food sector [9][12]. 4. **Future Directions**: Domestic pet brands are expected to continue moving towards mid-to-high-end markets, focusing on scientific pet care and product upgrades to maintain growth. The competitive landscape in lower-end markets remains intense [12][14]. 5. **Market Outlook**: The pet industry outlook is optimistic, driven by differentiated products and strong domestic demand. The annual growth rate of new pet owners is stable at around 8%, with online sales growth of 15-16% last year [13][14]. Additional Insights - The pork industry is expected to see a gradual transition towards stable production levels, benefiting leading companies with lower costs and higher certainty in performance [6][7]. - The approval of the African swine fever vaccine is a significant milestone, but the path to market remains complex and uncertain, necessitating close monitoring of developments [15][17]. - The pet supply chain is poised for rapid growth over the next three to five years, presenting a compelling investment opportunity as consumer preferences evolve [14].

Core Insights - The article highlights a resurgence in thematic trading, with optical communication and innovative pharmaceuticals leading the charge, while traditional sectors are expected to show price elasticity under significant policy or event catalysts [1] Thematic Summaries Theme 1: Urban Renewal - The Central Urban Work Conference emphasizes urban renewal as a key strategy for building modern, livable cities, with urbanization rates projected to rise from 53.1% in 2012 to 67% by 2024, increasing urban population from 720 million to 940 million [2] - Recommendations include investments in water and electricity infrastructure benefiting from the renovation of old neighborhoods and smart city developments [2] Theme 2: Yarlung Tsangpo Hydropower - The Yarlung Tsangpo hydropower project has officially commenced, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, aiming to construct five tiered power stations [3] - The project is expected to stimulate investments in regional engineering, transportation, and power industries [3] Theme 3: Production Limits and Price Stabilization - The State Council is taking measures to regulate competition in the new energy vehicle sector and address low-price disorder in the photovoltaic industry, which is expected to stabilize price expectations in cyclical industries like steel, chemicals, and pig farming [4] - Recommendations focus on new energy vehicles and photovoltaic supply chains facing low-price competition, as well as cyclical industries benefiting from supply-side improvements [4] Theme 4: AI New Infrastructure - Nvidia's founder Huang Renxun's visit to China and the approval of H20 chip exports signal positive developments in the chip trade between China and the US, potentially accelerating capital expenditures in domestic internet companies [4] - Recommendations include investments in optical modules and domestic computing power supply chains benefiting from increased demand [4]