11月6日，闻泰科技跌6.06%，截至发稿，报40.47元/股，成交8.88亿元，换手率1.74%，总市值503.70亿 元。 资料显示，闻泰科技股份有限公司位于广东省深圳市罗湖区黄贝街道新秀社区罗沙路5097号银丰大厦B 座一层，成立日期1993年1月11日，上市日期1996年8月28日，公司主营业务涉及房地产开发与经营;以 智能手机为主的移动互联网设备产品的研发与制造;上游半导体。主营业务收入构成为：智能终端 69.00%，半导体产品30.88%，其他0.12%。 从基金十大重仓股角度 数据显示，融通基金旗下1只基金重仓闻泰科技。融通通乾研究精选灵活配置混合A（002989）三季度 减持4.32万股，持有股数36.43万股，占基金净值比例为4.8%，位居第六大重仓股。根据测算，今日浮 亏损失约95.08万元。 融通通乾研究精选灵活配置混合A（002989）成立日期2016年8月12日，最新规模3.52亿。今年以来收益 17.55%，同类排名4650/8149；近一年收益7.9%，同类排名5760/8053；成立以来收益36.76%。 融通通乾研究精选灵活配置混合A（002989）基金经理为石础。 截至发稿 ...

Group 1 - The China International Import Expo (CIIE) serves as a key platform for international companies to engage with the Chinese market and explore global development opportunities [1][2] - Qualcomm has participated in CIIE for eight consecutive years, showcasing its diverse business segments and deepening partnerships with Chinese industry players [1] - The presence of flagship smartphones from various Chinese manufacturers at Qualcomm's booth highlights the rapid pace of innovation and development in China [1] Group 2 - The American Soybean Export Association emphasizes the importance of establishing connections between U.S. exporters and Chinese importers, reflecting positive developments in trade negotiations [2] - The Italian tire manufacturer BKT recognizes China as a leader in the electric vehicle market and has tailored its products to meet the specific demands of this sector [2] - BKT's commitment to research and development in China is aimed at enhancing its global competitiveness, with a focus on lightweight and energy-efficient tires for electric trucks [2][3]

Core Insights - This year's Double Eleven e-commerce promotion started earlier than in previous years, with JD and Douyin launching on October 9, and Taobao, Tmall, and Pinduoduo starting around October 15 [2] - Xiaomi reported a total payment amount exceeding 18.2 billion yuan for the Double Eleven event, securing the top position in domestic smartphone sales across all major platforms [2] - According to JD's Double Eleven mobile sales data, Apple ranked first in sales, with Xiaomi following closely in second place, becoming the champion among domestic smartphone brands [5] Xiaomi's Performance - Xiaomi's smartphone business generated revenue of 45.5 billion yuan in Q2 2025, with a shipment volume of 42.4 million units [7] - In the high-end smartphone market, Xiaomi's share in the 4000-5000 yuan price segment is 24.7%, maintaining the top position in China, while its market share in the 5000-6000 yuan segment reached 15.4%, an increase of 6.5 percentage points year-on-year [7] - Xiaomi is shifting its focus in the high-end market from the 4000-6000 yuan range to the ultra-high-end segment above 6000 yuan starting this year [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xiaomi Group [3][5]. Core Views - Xiaomi is accelerating its high-end smartphone offerings, with the recent launch of the Xiaomi 17 series achieving record sales within minutes of release. The company aims to mitigate storage cost pressures through product structure optimization [1]. - The automotive segment is showing promising growth, with 400,000 units delivered within a year and monthly deliveries exceeding 40,000 units in September and October 2025. The company is expected to achieve breakeven in quarterly automotive operations [2]. - Despite a slowdown in national subsidies for IoT products, Xiaomi's competitive edge in the IoT sector remains strong due to product quality and supply chain management [2]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from 270.97 billion CNY in 2023 to 748.7 billion CNY by 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of -3%, 35%, 29%, 31%, and 22% respectively [4][10]. - Non-GAAP net profit is expected to increase from 19.27 billion CNY in 2023 to 79.53 billion CNY in 2027, with significant growth rates of 126%, 41%, 55%, 46%, and 29% [4][10]. - The company anticipates maintaining a gross margin of approximately 11% for Q3 and Q4 2025, despite rising storage costs [1]. Market Position - Xiaomi holds a 14% market share in the global smartphone market, ranking among the top three manufacturers. In China, it has a 15% market share, placing it fourth [1]. - The company has successfully entered the high-end smartphone market, with the Xiaomi 17 Pro Max leading sales in the new series [1]. Automotive Business - Xiaomi has delivered 400,000 vehicles since the launch of its automotive products, with a strategy to provide tax subsidies to enhance consumer benefits [2]. - The automotive division is expected to reach a quarterly breakeven point as delivery volumes increase [2]. IoT and Consumer Products - The IoT business is projected to maintain robust competitiveness despite reduced national subsidies, supported by Xiaomi's product quality and supply chain capabilities [2].

Core Insights - The smartphone market in 2025 is experiencing significant changes, with Xiaomi and Apple adopting contrasting strategies to address consumer behavior and market dynamics [1][3][9] - Xiaomi's launch of the Xiaomi 17 series, directly competing with Apple's iPhone 17, has generated considerable market interest despite initial criticism [1][5] - Apple is reportedly considering skipping the iPhone 19 and launching the iPhone 20, reflecting a shift in high-end smartphone marketing strategies [2][10] Xiaomi's Strategy - Xiaomi's decision to skip the 16 series and launch the 17 series has led to over 20% sales growth compared to the previous generation, with the Pro series seeing sales increase by approximately three times [1][3] - The unique back screen design of the Xiaomi 17 Pro Max has attracted a new user base, showcasing the power of emotional consumption and user-generated content [5][6] - Xiaomi plans to maintain the back screen design in future models and is launching a dedicated short drama app to enhance user engagement and brand loyalty [8][6] Apple's Strategy - Apple has adopted a conservative approach by significantly upgrading the iPhone 17 base model, focusing on value and practicality rather than flashy innovations [9][10] - The decision to potentially skip the iPhone 19 and launch the iPhone 20 is seen as a strategic move to create buzz and signify a shift towards future-focused branding [10][12] - Apple's planned staggered release of new models aims to balance market performance and extend product lifecycle value, reflecting a careful consideration of market dynamics [12][13] Market Trends - The global smartphone market is projected to see only a 1% increase in shipment volume in 2025, but the average selling price is expected to rise by 5%, indicating a shift towards value-driven purchasing [13][14] - The competition between domestic brands and international giants is intensifying, prompting manufacturers to innovate in branding, product design, and marketing strategies [13][14] - The industry is at a critical juncture where understanding consumer psychology and building ecosystems will be essential for future growth [14]

Core Insights - The penetration rate of AI in terminal devices, particularly smartphones, is increasing, with AI smartphones expected to account for 16% of global shipments in 2024 and potentially rise to 54% by 2028, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 63% in the AI smartphone market [1][3] Group 1: Market Trends - The geopolitical environment is rapidly changing, leading to increased uncertainty in tariffs and logistics, creating a need for investors to identify resilient and technology-driven investment opportunities [3] - Local brands are gaining traction in regions such as South Asia, the Middle East, and Latin America, with global shipments of local smartphone brands projected to grow from 45.6 million units in 2020 to 58.1 million units in 2024, representing a CAGR of 6.3% [5] - The demand for local brands is driven by a focus on supply chain resilience and security, supported by government policies [5] Group 2: Company Positioning - KUSAI Intelligent positions itself as an "enabler" for local smartphone brands, providing a comprehensive solution that includes product definition, R&D, supply chain management, manufacturing execution, and after-sales service [8][9] - The company has developed a unique "full-process empowerment" capability, allowing local brands to focus on branding and distribution while KUSAI manages the rest [8][9] - KUSAI has accumulated valuable localized data on user preferences, which is difficult for global brands to access, creating a competitive advantage [9] Group 3: Financial Performance - KUSAI's revenue is expected to grow from 1.7135 billion yuan in 2022 to 2.7170 billion yuan in 2024, with a CAGR of 25.9%, while net profit is projected to increase from 110.1 million yuan to 206.6 million yuan during the same period [12] - The company's gross margin is expected to rise from 19.2% in 2022 to 22.3% in 2024, indicating an increase in high-value services and improved cost control [12] - Customer retention rates are high, with local brand retention at 92.9% and telecom operator retention at 100%, reflecting strong service engagement [12] Group 4: Future Outlook - KUSAI is well-positioned to benefit from the global supply chain restructuring and the rise of AI technologies, with plans to expand its global sales network and strengthen its "global localization" strategy [13] - The company is focusing on AI innovations, such as AI portrait analysis and meeting assistants, to enhance product competitiveness and create future revenue opportunities [13] - The combination of increasing AI smartphone penetration, supply chain restructuring, and the rise of local brands presents a significant opportunity for KUSAI [15]

Financial Report Analysis - Xiaomi Group reported total revenue of 227.2 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 38.2%, with adjusted net profit reaching 21.5 billion yuan, up 69.8% year-on-year, indicating strong growth logic being validated [5] - The smartphone business generated revenue of 96.132 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, with a slight increase in Q2 shipment volume to 42.4 million units, but a decrease in average selling price (ASP) to 1,073.2 yuan due to the impact of the Redmi A5 series [6] - The AIoT and internet services segments generated significant revenue, with AIoT revenue reaching 71.05 billion yuan and internet services revenue around 20.5 billion yuan, showcasing their importance as profit contributors [8][9] Business Segments - The smartphone segment is transitioning from a growth engine to a strategic cornerstone, providing stable cash flow and user entry points for the ecosystem [7] - The AIoT and internet services are seen as the core of Xiaomi's profit and ecological moat, with AIoT's gross margin exceeding 22.5% and internet services achieving a gross margin of over 75% [8][9] - The smart electric vehicle segment generated impressive revenue of 39.8 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, with a gross margin of 24.9%, indicating strong market potential and operational efficiency [10][11] Valuation Projection - A sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation approach is deemed appropriate for Xiaomi due to its diverse business segments [13] - Projected total revenue for 2025 is estimated to be between 472 billion and 492 billion yuan, with adjusted net profit expected to be around 42.5 billion yuan [18] - The core business valuation is estimated at 9,135 billion yuan, while the smart vehicle business is valued at 2,500 billion yuan, leading to a total valuation of 12,635 billion yuan [21] Stock Price Prediction and Investment Strategy - The stock price is projected to have three key price ranges: undervalued below 48 HKD, reasonable between 52-60 HKD, and overvalued above 68 HKD [24][25][26] - The undervalued range suggests a potential buying opportunity for long-term investors, while the reasonable range reflects a balanced view of growth and value [24][25] - The overvalued range indicates a market that may be overly optimistic about future growth, suggesting a potential exit point for investors [26]

Core Viewpoint - Berkshire Hathaway, led by Warren Buffett, is likely to further reduce its substantial holdings in Apple stock by Q3 2025, following a previous reduction that saw a decrease in the cost basis of its consumer goods holdings by approximately $1.2 billion [2][3]. Group 1: Investment Strategy - Buffett's significant investment in Apple began in 2016, with a total investment of about $37.5 billion made between 2016 and 2018, positioning Apple as one of the four pillars of Berkshire's investment portfolio [2][3]. - Apple has generated over $150 billion in net gains for Berkshire, with its peak holding accounting for nearly 50% of the portfolio [2][3]. - In 2024, Berkshire initiated a large-scale sell-off, reducing its Apple holdings by about two-thirds, with nearly 400 million shares sold in Q2 alone at an average price of approximately $185 per share [3]. Group 2: Market Position - Apple holds a significant market share in the global smartphone market, with an 18.7% share in 2024 [4]. - The Asia-Pacific and Greater China regions account for 55% of the global smartphone market, with shares of 30% and 25% respectively [6]. - Despite a decline in overall revenue in China, the iPhone 17 series has seen a 38% year-on-year sales increase in the first six weeks of its launch, dominating the top three positions in the sales rankings [8].

Core Viewpoint - Citi expects Xiaomi Group-W (01810) to achieve a year-on-year revenue growth of 22% and adjusted net profit growth of 60% in Q3, reaching RMB 112.9 billion and RMB 10 billion respectively, driven by robust electric vehicle sales [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Xiaomi's total revenue for Q3 is projected to be RMB 112.9 billion, with an adjusted net profit of RMB 10 billion, reflecting significant growth compared to the previous year [1] - For Q4, Xiaomi is anticipated to see a 15% year-on-year increase in total revenue and a 16% increase in adjusted net profit, primarily due to a recovery in smartphone sales and continued growth in electric vehicle deliveries [1] Group 2: Business Segments - The smartphone segment may experience a 3% year-on-year decline in revenue due to decreased shipments in China and India [1] - The AIoT business is expected to slow down to a 5% year-on-year growth rate, impacted by reduced subsidies for trade-in programs [1] - Electric vehicle deliveries are projected to rise to 109,000 units, with an average price of approximately RMB 260,000, and the segment may have reached breakeven [1] Group 3: Market Outlook - The approval of Xiaomi's second electric vehicle factory is seen as a catalyst for stock price revaluation, with a target price set at HKD 69 [1] - Despite challenges in the AIoT segment due to a higher base effect, the overall outlook remains positive with expectations of recovery in smartphone sales and sustained electric vehicle growth [1]

Core Viewpoint - Citi expects Xiaomi Group-W (01810) to achieve a year-on-year revenue growth of 22% and a 60% increase in adjusted net profit in Q3, reaching RMB 112.9 billion and RMB 10 billion respectively, driven by robust electric vehicle sales [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Q3 total revenue is projected to be RMB 112.9 billion, with adjusted net profit at RMB 10 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 22% and 60% respectively [1] - For Q4, total revenue and adjusted net profit are expected to grow by 15% and 16% year-on-year, attributed to a recovery in smartphone sales and continued growth in electric vehicle deliveries [1] Group 2: Electric Vehicle Segment - The approval of Xiaomi's second electric vehicle factory is anticipated to act as a catalyst for stock price revaluation [1] - Electric vehicle deliveries are expected to rise to 109,000 units, with an average price of approximately RMB 260,000, and the segment may have already achieved breakeven [1] Group 3: Smartphone and AIoT Business - Xiaomi's smartphone revenue may decline by 3% year-on-year due to decreased shipments in China and India [1] - The AIoT business is projected to slow down to a year-on-year growth of 5% due to reduced subsidies for trade-ins [1]