2025 年 5 月 12 日 行业研究 国产替代主线不动摇，看好 MXD6、离子交换树脂、半导体材料 ——基础化工行业周报（20250505-20250509） 要点 中美贸易摩擦背景下，我们持续看好 MXD6、离子交换树脂、半导体材料等 国产替代新材料。美国白宫 4 月 10 日确认对中国产品征收的额外关税现已 达到 145%。随后，特朗普 5 月 8 日在白宫表示考虑降低对华关税。由于 "对等关税"的执行，部分原产于美国的新材料产品价格将进一步提高，叠 加前期美国政府有关政策，一系列进口新材料供应将持续趋紧。同时，国产 新材料产品凭借更高的性价比、更及时的技术响应服务等将更受下游客户的 青睐。此外，为了保证自身供应链安全，集成电路、面板等高技术领域的下 游客户也在加速针对国产新材料产品进行验证，加快了国产新材料的导入进 度。在此背景下，我们持续看好 MXD6、离子交换树脂、半导体材料等国产 替代新材料。 MXD6 可应用于汽车和无人机轻量化，国产企业突破技术壁垒即将放量。 MXD6 作为高性能工程塑料，其产品具有高强度、高刚性、耐高温、耐磨损 和耐老化、耐化学性、阻燃性、高阻隔性能等特点，主要应用于汽车 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the oil and petrochemical industry, suggesting investment opportunities in high-quality refining companies and upstream service providers [2][4]. Core Insights - The European refining sector is undergoing significant restructuring due to declining demand, aging facilities, and reduced profitability, with refining capacity decreasing by 4.2 million barrels per day since 2005, a drop of over 23% [4][5]. - The average age of European refineries is 66 years, significantly higher than the global average of 51 years, leading to increased maintenance costs and declining competitiveness [7][10]. - High natural gas prices continue to exert pressure on refinery profitability, with expectations that European gas prices will remain elevated, negatively impacting operational costs [10][12]. - Several refineries are expected to shut down in 2025, including Shell's Rheinland refinery and BP's Gelsenkirchen refinery, collectively removing 390,000 barrels per day of capacity [12][13]. Summary by Sections Upstream Sector - As of May 9, 2025, Brent crude futures closed at $63.91 per barrel, a week-on-week increase of 4.27%, while WTI futures rose by 4.68% to $41.02 per barrel [19]. - U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 2.032 million barrels to 438 million barrels, which is 7% lower than the five-year average for this time of year [21][22]. - The number of active drilling rigs in the U.S. decreased by 6 to 578, a year-on-year decline of 25 rigs [19][30]. Refining Sector - The Singapore refining margin for major products was $10.90 per barrel as of May 9, 2025, down by $6.31 from the previous week [53]. - The price spread for ethylene was $245.67 per ton, up by $30.80 from the previous week, while propylene saw a decrease in its price spread [4][50]. Polyester Sector - PTA prices increased to an average of 4551.67 RMB per ton, reflecting a week-on-week rise of 0.75% [4][50]. - The overall performance of the polyester industry remains average, with a need to monitor demand changes closely [4][50]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading refining companies such as Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and Dongfang Shenghong due to expected improvements in cost structures and competitive positioning [4][14]. - It also highlights the potential for recovery in the valuation of companies like Satellite Chemical and Tongkun Co., given the anticipated easing of tariffs affecting polyester demand [4][14].

在第九个"中国品牌日"来临之际，中国石化胜利油田举行"易能问地"业务品牌体验暨公众开放活动，正式发 布了"易能问地"业务品牌市场推介片，实地感受"绿动"赋能企业发展的工作成效。中国石化胜利油田党委副 书记、纪委书记、监事魏永军出席活动。来自烟台东方威斯顿和油田相关直属单位的利益相关方代表参加观 摩体验。 转自：新华财经 如何实现超大负荷下的电动替代？ 怎样做到终端用能低成本智能量测？ 如何破解"风光气热电"多元能源开发利用不充分、融合优化调控不到位的难题？ …… 5月9日，在"走进电力，感受绿动"品牌体验日活动中，这些疑惑都能找到答案！ 据了解，下一步胜利油田将持续强化品牌战略落地，锚定品牌驱动业务发展目标任务，大力提升全员品牌意 识，着力构建"大品牌"建设格局，努力培育品牌建设胜利范式，用实干赢得市场广泛赞誉，加快打造"易能问 地"金字招牌，为建设领先企业、打造百年胜利筑牢品牌支撑。 期间，与会人员参观了胜利电力品牌文化长廊，以及胜利油田"源网荷储"智慧能源系统，胜利油田电力分公 司被授予"易能问地"品牌落地示范先锋。（焦子琳 王筱桐） 编辑：胡晨曦 "易能问地"是胜利油田牵头打造的中国石化上游板块综合解决 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported an average production of 81,000 BOE per day, with a revenue of $253 million, where oil contributed 49%, gas 33%, and NGLs 18% [27][28] - The net debt to EBITDA ratio improved from 1.0 times at the end of 2024 to 0.7 times at the end of Q1 2025 [7][25] - The company generated over $94 million in cash available for distribution, resulting in a distribution of $0.79 per unit, yielding 20% [18][29] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The production mix for the quarter was 24% oil, 53% natural gas, and 23% NGLs, with lease operating expenses at $6.69 per BOE [27][22] - The company plans to shift its drilling focus from oil to natural gas, particularly in the Deep Anadarko Basin, which is expected to grow natural gas production significantly in 2026 [9][10] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The current market environment is challenging, with oil prices dipping into the $50s, while the company is well-positioned with a production mix of 54% natural gas, 23% NGLs, and 23% oil projected for 2025 [9][19] - The company has hedged volumes at an average price of $69.31 for oil and $3.77 for gas over the next twelve months [18] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company focuses on four strategic pillars: maintaining financial strength, disciplined execution, disciplined reinvestment rate, and maximizing cash distributions [4][5] - The company aims to keep its reinvestment rate below 50% of operating cash flow to optimize distributions to unitholders [5][14] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to weather market volatility and emphasized the importance of maintaining a strong balance sheet [25][26] - The company anticipates a significant increase in natural gas production in 2026, driven by additional drilling in the Deep Anadarko Basin [9][10] Other Important Information - The company completed a $60 million acquisition that doubled its acreage position, primarily in the Greater Anadarko Basin, which is expected to enhance production and lower operating costs [19][38] - The company has made 21 acquisitions since early 2018, totaling over $2 billion, focusing on cash-flowing properties at discounted prices [20][21] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you elaborate on the recent acquisition and its impact? - Management confirmed the acquisition added significant acreage in the Greater Anadarko Basin, with potential for increased production and lower lease operating expenses [38][39] Question: What is the strategy regarding the reinvestment rate and rig deployment? - Management clarified that they will adjust rig deployment based on maintaining a reinvestment rate below 50%, with plans to add rigs as cash flow allows [41][43] Question: How does the company view the oil to gas ratio moving forward? - Management indicated that the shift in development activity is driven by the current oil to gas price ratio, favoring natural gas drilling due to higher returns [50][51] Question: What are the expectations for natural gas prices and production in the coming year? - Management expressed a balanced outlook for natural gas prices, with expectations for significant growth in gas production in 2026 [84][85]

证券代码：600759 证券简称：洲际油气 公告编号：2025-018 号 次交易构成关联交易。 ?本次交易不构成重大资产重组。 ?本次关联交易经公司第十三届董事会第二十三次会议审议通过，无需提交 股东大会审议。 ?过去 12 个月内，公司与同一关联人（指 HUILING 女士及其控制的除本公 司之外的企业等交易主体）发生的除日常关联交易外的关联交易累计共 3 次，总 交易金额为人民币 4322.4 万元。 洲际油气股份有限公司关于公司控股子公司 向关联人借款暨关联交易的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗 漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 重要内容提示： ?洲际油气股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"或"洲际油气"）控股子公司 拟向实际控制人间接控股的子公司申请美元借款，借款总额为 3450 万美元。本 至本次交易为止，过去12个月内本公司与同一关联人（指HUILING) 女士及 其控制的除本公司之外的企业等交易主体）发生的除日常关联交易外的关联交易 累计共3次，总交易金额为人民币4322.4万元，占上市公司最近一期经审计净资 产0.5%。 ...

消息人士：墨西哥国家石油公司（PEMEX）将根据风险评估和产量前景，决定重新开采哪些油气井。 ...

Group 1: Core Insights - Diamondback Energy's CEO Travis Stice indicated that U.S. onshore oil production may have peaked and is expected to decline this quarter due to a significant drop in oil prices, which have decreased by approximately 17% since the beginning of the year [1][2] - The current oil price levels, adjusted for inflation, have only been seen in two quarters since 2004, excluding the unusual fluctuations during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 [1] - The decline in industry activity is a clear signal of the trend towards reduced production, with the number of active drilling rigs in the U.S. decreasing by 15% this year, and a 20% reduction in the Permian Basin [2] Group 2: Company Adjustments - In response to market changes, Diamondback Energy has reduced its annual capital expenditure budget by approximately $400 million, adjusting it to between $3.4 billion and $3.8 billion [3] - The company is facing increased drilling costs due to steel tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, which are raising costs by about 1% annually, equating to $40 million [3] - Diamondback Energy plans to drill between 385 and 435 wells this year, with completion numbers expected to be between 475 and 550 [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the basic chemical industry is "Positive (Maintain)" [1] Core Insights - The basic chemical industry achieved a revenue of 23,219.8 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 3.2%, but a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1,185.6 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 6.2% [6][35] - In Q1 2025, the industry reported a revenue of 5,602.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.8%, and a net profit of 369.7 billion yuan, which is an increase of 11.8% year-on-year [6][35] - The profitability of the industry showed a sales gross margin of 17.2% in Q1 2025, with a net profit margin of 0.1% [6][35] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry saw a revenue of 91,986.4 billion yuan in 2024, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 4.2%, while total profits decreased by 8.6% [5][26] - Fixed asset investment in the industry increased by 8.6% year-on-year, but the growth rate declined by 4.8 percentage points [5][26] Q1 Performance - In Q1 2025, the basic chemical sector experienced revenue growth, with a year-on-year increase of 5.8% and a net profit increase of 11.8% [6][35] - The sales gross margin for Q1 2025 was 17.2%, reflecting a slight decrease year-on-year but an increase compared to the previous quarter [6][35] Sub-industry Analysis - In 2024, the chlor-alkali and textile chemical products sub-industries showed significant profit growth, with chlor-alkali achieving a net profit growth of 262.8% [40][41] - For Q1 2025, the chlor-alkali sub-industry continued to lead with a net profit growth of 132.2% [41] Key Company Tracking - Major companies in the basic chemical sector, such as Wanhua Chemical and Hualu Hengsheng, reported significant net profit growth in 2024, with many companies experiencing a decrease in capital expenditures [5][6][35]

Group 1: Hong Kong Dollar and Stock Market - The Hong Kong dollar has reached the Strong-side Convertibility Undertaking for the first time in five years, indicating a potential bullish outlook for the Hong Kong stock market [3][5] - The Hong Kong banking system has approximately 8 trillion HKD in deposits, compared to over 300 trillion CNY in mainland China, highlighting the relatively small size of the HKD market [3] - Southbound capital has significantly increased, with a net inflow of 1.4 trillion HKD in just over a year and a half, leading to a shortage of HKD liquidity [3][5] Group 2: U.S. Stock Market Performance - The S&P 500 has achieved a nine-day winning streak, the longest since 2004, recovering from declines caused by tariff announcements [7][8] - Market expectations indicate that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates three times this year, totaling a reduction of approximately 75 basis points [8][9] - The earnings reports from major companies like Microsoft and Facebook have exceeded expectations, while Apple and Amazon's results were less favorable, indicating a high market efficiency [8][9] Group 3: Taiwan Dollar and Financial Risks - The New Taiwan Dollar has appreciated significantly, with a rise of over 8.5% against the U.S. dollar in recent trading days [11][12] - The appreciation poses risks for Taiwanese insurance companies heavily invested in U.S. dollar-denominated bonds, leading to potential losses exceeding 8% [12] - Regulatory bodies in Taiwan are urging insurance companies to assess the impact of currency fluctuations on their operations [12] Group 4: Oil Price Decline and Sector Impact - International oil prices have dropped nearly 10% over the past six trading days, primarily due to Saudi Arabia's decision to increase production in response to non-compliance by other OPEC members [17][18] - The decline in oil prices is expected to negatively impact oil and gas companies while benefiting sectors like airlines [18] Group 5: Currency Fluctuations and Economic Implications - The offshore RMB has appreciated to 7.2, which is favorable for the stock market but detrimental for export-oriented companies [19][20] - The People's Bank of China has conducted a significant reverse repo operation, indicating potential conditions for a reserve requirement ratio cut [20] Group 6: Developments in Autonomous Driving - Xiaomi has rebranded its "smart driving" feature to "assisted driving," reflecting a shift towards a more rational approach in the industry following recent discussions on safety [21][22] - This change may initially be viewed as a negative for the autonomous driving sector but could ultimately be beneficial as the industry matures [22] Group 7: Real Estate Market Trends - The sales data for the top 100 real estate companies in April showed a year-on-year decline of 16.9%, indicating a worsening trend compared to March [23] - Shenzhen Metro has reported significant losses, primarily due to investments in Vanke, which are seen as a financial burden [23][24]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the oil and petrochemical industry, indicating a "Buy" recommendation for key companies in the sector [2][12]. Core Insights - OPEC is expected to continue increasing production in June, with an additional 411,000 barrels per day from member countries, indicating a potential second bottom for oil prices [2][3]. - The report suggests that OPEC's current strategy is to test market limits, balancing production and price to optimize revenue for member countries [11]. - The upstream sector is experiencing a widening supply-demand trend, with expectations of downward pressure on oil prices, but a medium to high price range is anticipated due to OPEC's production adjustments and shale oil cost support [2][12]. Summary by Sections Upstream Sector - Brent crude oil futures closed at $61.29 per barrel, down 8.34% week-on-week, while WTI futures fell 7.51% to $58.29 per barrel [2][17]. - U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 759,000 barrels to 442 million barrels, which is 5% lower than the five-year average [19]. - The number of active U.S. drilling rigs decreased to 584, down 3 from the previous week and down 21 year-on-year [31][35]. Refining Sector - The Singapore refining margin for major products increased to $17.21 per barrel, up $6.27 from the previous week [2]. - The price spread for PTA in East China rose to 4,451.30 CNY per ton, reflecting a 1.94% increase week-on-week [12][51]. Polyester Sector - The PX market in Asia closed at $757 per ton, up 1.85% week-on-week, with the PX-naphtha spread increasing by $18.50 to $181.87 per ton [12][51]. - The overall performance of the polyester industry is average, with a need to monitor demand changes, but a gradual improvement is expected as new capacity comes online [12]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-quality refining companies such as Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and Dongfang Shenghong due to improved cost expectations and competitive advantages [12]. - It also highlights the potential for valuation recovery in companies like Satellite Chemical, with favorable conditions for ethane-based ethylene production [12]. - For upstream exploration and development, companies like CNOOC and Haiyou Engineering are expected to benefit from high capital expenditure in offshore projects [12].