Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that U.S. Treasury yields are mostly declining as investors digest strong retail sales data and anticipate a nearly certain interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve this week [1][2] - The U.S. retail sales in August showed a robust growth of 0.6%, marking the third consecutive month of strong performance, surpassing the Dow Jones forecast of 0.3% [2] - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is expected to lower the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points (BPs), with market expectations indicating a cumulative rate cut of 75 BPs by the end of the year [2][3] Group 2 - The U.S. Treasury is set to issue two bonds totaling $98 billion, including $85 billion in 6-week short-term debt and $13 billion in 20-year bonds [3] - In the European market, bond yields are generally rising, with the 10-year German bond yield increasing by 1 BP to 2.705% [3] - In the Asia-Pacific market, Japanese bond yields are mostly declining, with the 20-year bond yield rising by 3.3 BPs to 2.678% [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pressure on the bond market has been persistent recently, mainly due to three factors: the strengthening year - on - year growth of M1 signaling an economic recovery, the return of market risk appetite and the stability of the A - share market leading to capital diversion, and the "anti - involution" policy expectations driving up commodity prices and intensifying inflation expectations. The current one - year rolling stock - bond spread is - 0.6762%, approaching the + 2 standard deviation range (- 0.5408%) [5][60]. - The redemption pressure on public bond funds may ease temporarily, and there may be opportunities for the narrowing of the spread between 5 - 10 - year China Development Bank (CDB) bonds and treasury bonds. The market has already priced in the potential impact of the new public bond fund sales fee policy, causing the spread between CDB bonds and treasury bonds, especially in the 5 - 10 - year segment, to widen significantly. Since the policy is still in the consultation stage, the redemption pressure on public bond funds is expected to ease, and the spread may narrow [5][64]. - In the short term, be wary of the temporary impact caused by institutional profit - taking at the end of the quarter. Institutions that have increased their fixed - income asset allocations in the past three years are under significant profit - assessment pressure this year. The selling behavior at the end of the quarter, especially in September, may disrupt the market. Also, pay attention to the Federal Reserve's interest - rate meeting this week [6][65]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Bond Market Review - From September 8th to 12th, treasury bond yields first rose and then fell. Policy expectations and institutional behavior jointly dominated the market rhythm. The market was initially affected by the new public bond fund sales fee policy, and then gradually stabilized due to factors such as the central bank's liquidity support, clear expectations of interest - rate bond supply, and stable financial data [11]. - As of September 12th, treasury bond yields generally increased. The 1 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond yields rose by 0.41bp, 4.10bp, and 7.15bp respectively compared to the previous Friday. The yields of CDB bonds also increased, with the 10 - year CDB bond yield rising by 15.53bp [16]. - Most of the key term spreads of treasury bonds widened. The 10Y - 1Y spread of treasury bonds widened by 3.69bp to 46.70bp, and the 30Y - 10Y spread widened by 3.05bp to 31.70bp. For CDB bonds, the 10Y - 1Y spread widened by 11.88bp to 45.04bp, while the 30Y - 10Y spread narrowed by 8.88bp to 23.21bp [22]. 3.2 Bond Market Data Tracking 3.2.1 Funding Situation - From September 8th to 12th, the central bank's net open - market operation injection was 1,961.00 billion yuan. The central bank conducted 12,645.00 billion yuan in reverse repurchases, with 10,684.00 billion yuan maturing. Next week, 12,645.00 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature, a larger amount than the previous week [24]. - Funding rates generally increased. R001, DR001, R007, and DR007 rose by 3.7bp, 4.83bp, 2.51bp, and 3.25bp respectively compared to the previous week. The SHIBOR rates also increased. As of September 12th, the overnight, 1 - week, 2 - week, 1 - month, and 3 - month SHIBOR rates rose by 5.10bp, 3.30bp, 5.70bp, 1.20bp, and 0.30bp respectively compared to September 5th [25][35]. - The bill rate remained low, and the bill rate continued to be inverted with the SHIBOR rate. The difference in funding costs between non - bank institutions and banks narrowed, and the phenomenon of funding stratification eased [25][38]. 3.2.2 Supply Side - From September 8th to 12th, the total issuance of interest - rate bonds increased, while the net financing decreased. The total issuance scale of interest - rate bonds was 16,522.02 billion yuan, an increase of 6,280.41 billion yuan from the previous week. The net financing scale was 1,403.59 billion yuan, a decrease of 3,178.30 billion yuan from the previous week [40]. - The issuance scale of government bonds increased, and the net financing also increased. Treasury bonds were issued at 5,663.70 billion yuan, an increase of 2,173.00 billion yuan from the previous week, and local government bonds were issued at 3,016.72 billion yuan, an increase of 2,082.81 billion yuan from the previous week [43]. - The issuance scale of negotiable certificates of deposit (NCDs) increased, the net financing decreased, and the issuance rate increased. The total issuance of NCDs was 7,841.60 billion yuan, an increase of 2,024.60 billion yuan from the previous week, and the net financing was - 4,680.10 billion yuan, a decrease of 7,196.60 billion yuan from the previous week [46]. 3.3 Next Week's Outlook and Strategy 3.3.1 Next Week's Outlook - The supply pressure of treasury bonds will decrease next week. The planned issuance of treasury bonds is 2,770.00 billion yuan, and the planned issuance of local government bonds is 1,885.19 billion yuan [58]. - The central bank's net open - market operation injection was 1,961.00 billion yuan from September 8th to 12th. Although there will be tax payments next week, considering that September is not a major tax - paying month and the central bank's attitude towards liquidity support, the central level of funding rates is expected to remain stable [59]. 3.3.2 Bond Market Strategy - Pay attention to the opportunity of the narrowing spread between CDB bonds and treasury bonds. Given that the new public bond fund sales fee policy is still in the consultation stage, the redemption pressure on public bond funds is expected to ease, and the spread between CDB bonds and treasury bonds may narrow [64]. - Be wary of the temporary impact caused by institutional profit - taking at the end of the quarter. Institutions may sell bonds to realize floating profits in their OCI accounts at the end of the quarter, which may disrupt the market [65]. 3.4 Global Asset Classes - The U.S. Treasury yield curve flattened. As of September 12, 2025, the yields of 1Y, 2Y, 3Y, 5Y, 10Y, and 30Y U.S. Treasuries changed by + 1bp, + 5bp, + 4bp, + 4bp, - 4bp, and - 10bp respectively compared to September 5th, and the 10Y - 2Y spread narrowed by 9bp to 50bp [69]. - The U.S. dollar index weakened slightly, and the central parity rate of the U.S. dollar against the Chinese yuan decreased slightly. The prices of gold, silver, and crude oil generally strengthened. As of September 12, 2025, the COMEX gold futures price rose by 1.26%, the COMEX silver futures price rose by 2.81%, the WTI crude oil price rose by 1.13%, and the Brent crude oil price rose by 1.84% compared to September 5th [69][73].

Group 1 - The certainty of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut is increasing, leading to an appreciation of the RMB and an accelerated inflow of foreign capital into Chinese assets [1][2] - Domestic policies aimed at stabilizing growth, particularly in the real estate sector, are expected to improve the external environment for equity assets, suggesting a bullish outlook [1][2] - Recommended sectors include media, computer technology, electrical equipment, non-bank financials, non-ferrous metals, food and beverage, and pharmaceutical biology [1][2] Group 2 - In the bond market, the recent marginal tightening of the funding environment has not significantly impacted the resilience of the equity market, with expectations of continued support from the central bank [2] - The basic economic indicators show a continuation of weak fundamentals, but the central bank's actions indicate a commitment to maintaining liquidity [2] - The A-share market is expected to benefit from the anticipated interest rate cuts and the favorable external environment [2] Group 3 - The expectation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve is likely to create a favorable financial condition for non-U.S. markets, including Hong Kong stocks [3] - Weak demand for crude oil is projected for 2025, with ongoing supply releases putting downward pressure on oil prices [4] - The anticipated easing of financial conditions before the Federal Reserve's rate cut is expected to positively influence gold performance [5]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market showed slight recovery on September 16, with most government bond futures closing higher and interbank bond yields declining by approximately 1 basis point in the afternoon. The central bank conducted a net injection of 40 billion yuan in the open market, while funding rates continued to rise. Analysts believe that long-term bond yields may decline more smoothly in the latter half of Q4, with the potential for new lows in yields within the year. The timing for resuming government bond trading appears to be maturing based on current yield conditions and future government bond issuance plans [1][6][9]. Market Performance - Government bond futures closed mostly higher, with the 30-year main contract flat at 115.48, the 10-year main contract up 0.15% at 108, the 5-year main contract up 0.13% at 105.795, and the 2-year main contract up 0.04% at 102.414 [2]. - Interbank bond yields generally declined in the afternoon, with the 30-year government bond yield down 1.5 basis points to 2.08%, the 10-year policy bank bond yield down 1.55 basis points to 1.9275%, and the 10-year government bond yield down 1.6 basis points to 1.784% [2]. International Market Trends - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields collectively fell on September 15, with the 2-year yield down 2.30 basis points to 3.526%, the 3-year yield down 3.32 basis points to 3.494%, the 5-year yield down 3.3 basis points to 3.600%, the 10-year yield down 3.64 basis points to 4.034%, and the 30-year yield down 2.8 basis points to 4.653% [3]. - In Asia, Japanese bond yields rose across the board, with the 10-year yield up 0.6 basis points to 1.601% [4]. Economic Indicators - In August, China's retail sales grew by 3.4% year-on-year, below the expected 3.8% and previous 3.7%. The industrial output increased by 5.2%, also below the expected 5.7%. Fixed asset investment from January to August grew by 0.5%, below the expected 1.3% and previous 1.6%. The urban unemployment rate in August was 5.3%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [7]. - Real estate investment from January to August totaled 60,309 billion yuan, down 12.9% year-on-year, with new housing sales down 7.3% [7][8]. Institutional Insights - Huatai Fixed Income noted that August economic data continued to converge, with external demand stronger than internal demand. The bond market is expected to enter a target range, with financing demand weak and expectations for bond purchases increasing [9]. - CITIC Construction pointed out that while August economic data is stable, pressures remain. The bond market's response to fundamental factors is muted, and attention should be paid to the central bank's funding situation [9]. - Guosheng Fixed Income observed that economic data indicates a further slowdown in supply and demand, with short-term disturbances likely to cause bond market fluctuations [9].

Group 1 - The company, Zhaojin Mining (01818), announced the public issuance of corporate bonds (Phase II) aimed at professional institutional investors, referred to as "22 Zhaojin 02" [1] - The bond buyback registration will take place from August 18 to August 20, 2025, with a total buyback application amount of 1 billion yuan [1] - The bond will be redeemed on September 15, 2025, including the full principal and corresponding interest accrued from September 15, 2024, to September 14, 2025 [1] Group 2 - The bond has a nominal interest rate of 2.78%, with each bond unit having a principal repayment of 1,000 yuan and an interest distribution of 27.80 yuan (tax included) [1] - After the completion of interest payment, redemption, and buyback, the bond will be delisted from the Shanghai Stock Exchange on September 25, 2025 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Global market risk appetite continues to rise, with US stocks reaching historical highs as investors focus on upcoming retail data and prepare for the widely expected first interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve this year [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - Asian stock markets have reached record highs, while European stocks opened mixed, and US stock index futures are collectively rising [1][2]. - The S&P 500 index has surpassed the 6600-point mark [2]. - The MSCI Asia stock index has achieved a historical high and is on track for its best consecutive gains in nearly five years [3]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - August retail sales data is expected to grow by 0.2%, which will provide critical reference for Federal Reserve decision-making [1]. - There is a general expectation of a 25 basis point rate cut on Wednesday, with some investors considering the possibility of a 50 basis point cut [1]. Group 3: Bond Market - US Treasury prices have risen, with the 10-year yield dropping by 1 basis point to 4.03% as investors bet on an impending rate cut cycle by the Federal Reserve [4][6]. - The 10-year Treasury yield is reported at 4.029%, reflecting a slight decrease [6]. Group 4: Commodity Market - Spot gold has increased by $7, currently reported at $3694 per ounce, approaching the $3700 mark [6]. Group 5: Currency Market - The US dollar has fallen to its lowest level against all major currencies since July [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The definition of a bond bear market is a 40BP adjustment in the 10-year Treasury bond and an adjustment time of more than 3 months. Historically, bond bear markets were caused by fundamental improvement, monetary policy tightening, liquidity tightening leading to a bear-flattening curve, and persistent pessimism in sentiment leading to further adjustments. This round's verification differs significantly from history; it is more like an emotional adjustment under continuous risk preference shocks, anti-involution, and fund fee reduction [1]. - The bond market has experienced a 7-year bull market, with yields dropping from a high of 4.0% in early 2018 to a low of 1.6% in early 2025, a cumulative compression of 240bp. The current situation makes people wonder whether to buy on every dip or enter the bull-bear conversion thinking [2]. - The consensus resistance level for the 10Y Treasury bond this year is 1.80% (OMO + 40BP). If it cannot hold, the new market resistance level is approximately last year's central level, corresponding to 1.85% - 1.90% [3]. - Through historical review, the three core signal inflection points for a bull-to-bear transition are the policy bottom, the fundamental bottom, and the sentiment bottom [6]. - After cross-verifying the policy, fundamental, and sentiment aspects, it is believed that the inflection point for the bond market's bull-bear switch has not appeared, and the market still follows the buy-on-dip logic [48]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Worries about Bull-Bear Conversion in the Market Background - The bond market has had a 7-year bull market, with yields dropping from 4.0% in early 2018 to 1.6% in early 2025, a 240bp compression. Although there was an 80bp adjustment in 2020, the long-term bull market foundation remained intact. The extreme market in 2024 shaped a strong consensus. The long bull market, strong one-sided expectations, low current levels, and large recent fluctuations have led to concerns about bull-bear conversion [2][15]. - A bond bear market is defined as a single adjustment of more than 40bp and a decline lasting over 3 months. The current market adjustment started on July 7th, lasting 2 months with a maximum amplitude of 19bp, not yet a bond bear market, but there are concerns about the continuation of this trend [15]. - In the past decade, the bond market has experienced eight significant adjustments. The adjustments in October 2016 and May 2020 had an upward amplitude of over 80bp and lasted more than 6 months, which are used as research samples for bond bear markets [16]. - The 10-year Treasury bond and OMO spread reached a new high this year. The consensus resistance level for the 10Y Treasury bond this year is 1.80% (OMO + 40BP). If it cannot hold, the new resistance level is around last year's central level, 1.85% - 1.90% (OMO + 45 - 50BP). The current 30-year and 10-year Treasury bond spread is 30bp, significantly wider than last year's average of 20.75bp [3][19]. 3.2 Historical Review: Where Were the Inflection Points of the Past Two Bull-Bear Cycles? - **2016 - 2017: The Long Bear Market under Financial Deleveraging** - The bear market was catalyzed by factors such as economic fundamental recovery, monetary policy tightening, financial deleveraging, and strengthened policy supervision. The supply-side structural reform led to a commodity bull market, PPI turning positive and rising sharply, inflation expectations, and then monetary policy tightening and "financial deleveraging" [23]. - Three signals indicated the start of a new economic cycle: PMI returning to the boom-bust line, soaring commodity prices, and PPI turning positive for the first time. Policy-wise, "financial deleveraging" dominated the regulatory tone, triggering the end of the bond bull market. The central bank raised policy rates multiple times, MPA assessment became stricter, and the interbank liquidity was under pressure, leading to a bear-flattening and then a bear-steepening curve [23][24]. - **2020: The "V-shaped" Reversal after the Pandemic Recovery** - The bear market was catalyzed by post-pandemic economic recovery, marginal tightening of monetary policy, and a shift in risk preference. The "V-shaped" economic recovery brought a "V-shaped" interest rate adjustment, with PMI achieving a V-shaped reversal and PPI rebounding from the bottom [30]. - The core of this adjustment was the policy expectation gap. The market was immersed in the central bank's loose narrative, but the policy had already shifted based on economic recovery, leading to a significant correction in expectations. The central bank began to recover excess liquidity in May, and the stock market recovered, causing funds to flow from the bond market to the stock market, accelerating the rise in interest rates [31]. - **Three Core Signal Inflection Points for Bull-to-Bear Transition** - Policy bottom: Signs or statements of marginal tightening in macro policies, including tightening of monetary policy (central bank's open market operations reducing liquidity, tightening of the money market) and stricter regulatory policies (such as MPA assessment and financial deleveraging). This is a left-side signal that requires keen insight [6]. - Fundamental bottom: High-frequency and economic data continuously and consistently exceed expectations (especially PPI, PMI, M1, and social financing credit). Economic indicators lead, with PMI usually bottoming out and rebounding 2 - 3 months before the inflection point and PPI turning positive or rebounding from the bottom about 1 month before the inflection point. These are confirmation signals for a trend reversal to a bear market [6]. - Sentiment bottom: A fragile and crowded trading structure is triggered by the above two signals, leading to self-reinforcing selling and deleveraging in the market, sensitive market sentiment, and the fastest rise in yields [6]. 3.3 Current Verification: Does the Market Currently Have the Conditions to Turn Bearish? - **Policy Aspect**: Monetary policy remains within the framework of "precise and effective" and "moderately loose." There has been no significant shift to tightening. The possibility of policy tightening this year is low due to the weak economic recovery momentum [42]. - **Fundamental Aspect**: Given the pressure on income and employment expectations, the deep bottoming of the real estate market, the tightening of generalized urban investment finance, and the weak bank credit supply, the probability of a significant and unexpected economic boost in the short term is still low. PPI, PMI, and credit indicators show that the economic endogenous动力 needs further strengthening [43]. - **Sentiment Aspect**: The duration risk remains at a historically high level, but the leverage level is generally controllable and at a historical low. The trading congestion has significantly cooled down from the recent overheated state, but market sentiment remains sensitive due to continuous risk preference disturbances [44]. - Overall, the bond market still lacks the macroeconomic and policy basis for a significant reversal to a bear market. The current situation is more of an interval shock caused by asset linkage, high bond market congestion, and the digestion of previous over - rises, rather than a trend decline. The inflection point for the bond market's bull - bear switch has not appeared, and the market still follows the buy - on - dip logic [48].

Core Insights - The report discusses the impact of early allocation of local government debt limits for 2026, which is expected to be 3.12 trillion yuan, representing 60% of the 2025 limit, and emphasizes that this will not affect the supply of local debt in 2025 but will facilitate issuance in the first half of 2026 [1][14][16] - The report highlights the implementation of a debt replacement policy that adds 10 trillion yuan in local government debt resources, with 6 trillion yuan available for immediate use and 4 trillion yuan allocated for special new bonds, indicating a proactive approach to managing local government debt [2][16] - The report anticipates a significant reduction in net financing for government bonds in Q4 2025, potentially dropping to 2.51 trillion yuan, which is close to the levels seen in 2021, due to the early use of debt replacement quotas [2][16] Local Government Debt Strategy - As of September 21, 2025, the cumulative issuance of replacement bonds reached 1.9723 trillion yuan, with an issuance progress of 98.62%, while new general bonds and special bonds also showed significant progress [3][19][45] - The report notes that the implied tax rates of newly issued local bonds tend to revert to a range of 3%-6% after listing, with bonds issued at rates close to or above 6% offering a safety margin or excess returns [4][51] - The report indicates that insurance companies have been actively participating in the long-end of the local bond market, with daily net purchases around 9 billion yuan, suggesting a strong interest in long-term bonds [4][20][51] Monetary Policy and Liquidity - The report outlines the recent trends in money market rates, noting that rates have fluctuated above and below policy rates, indicating a tightening liquidity environment as the end of the quarter approaches [8][21] - It highlights the pressures on the funding environment due to tax payment deadlines and the maturity of interbank certificates of deposit, which could impact liquidity in the short term [9][27] - The report mentions that the central bank has been cautious in its liquidity injections, with net daily operations remaining below 100 billion yuan, reflecting a more restrained monetary policy stance [8][21]

Core Insights - Duration risk is a key consideration in bond investment, measuring sensitivity to interest rate changes, with short-term bonds generally offering lower volatility and more stable performance compared to long-term bonds [1] Group 1: Performance of Short-Term Bonds - Short-term bonds are more likely to benefit from a rate-cutting cycle due to their yields being closer to short-term or risk-free rates, as evidenced by the superior performance of the Asian short-term bond index over long-term bonds during the past year of rate cuts [3] - The defensive attributes of short-term bonds are highlighted during periods of market volatility, as they tend to show greater resilience when investor confidence in long-term credit issuers is challenged [3] - The current macroeconomic environment in Asia supports credit performance, with low inflation levels allowing for greater flexibility in monetary policy [4] Group 2: Credit Fundamentals and Market Dynamics - The credit fundamentals of major Asian sovereign and investment-grade corporate issuers have been improving, with a positive trend in rating upgrades versus downgrades since 2022 [4] - The supply risk faced by investors in the Asian dollar bond market has decreased due to a suppression of new issuances, while demand for high-quality bonds remains strong, providing solid technical support for the bond market [4] - Asian short-term bonds are positioned favorably due to improved fundamentals, strong technicals, and attractive yield levels, with 2-year and 3-year U.S. Treasury yields remaining high [4] Group 3: Riding Strategy for Enhanced Returns - The riding strategy can enhance returns by purchasing longer-duration bonds and selling them before maturity, capitalizing on the downward trend of yields as the bond approaches maturity [6] - An example illustrates that a 4-year bond yielding 4.8% can be sold after one year as a 3-year bond, potentially resulting in a total return of around 5.6% due to capital appreciation from yield decline [6][7] - This strategy emphasizes the importance of analyzing specific yield curves and actively considering slope opportunities, allowing investors to achieve higher returns without additional credit risk [7][8] Group 4: Conclusion on Short-Term Bonds - Short-term bonds are less affected by long-term interest rates and macroeconomic uncertainties, making them an ideal opportunity for strong and stable returns in the context of high yield levels and healthy credit fundamentals in the Asian credit market [8]

Group 1: Market Overview - Since the third quarter, the A-share market has continued to rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 12.08%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 24.28%, and the ChiNext Index by 42.41% as of September 15 [1] - In contrast, the bond market has experienced a significant adjustment, with the ten-year government bond yield rising from 1.6553% on June 30 to 1.8615% by September 15, an increase of over 20 basis points [1] Group 2: Fund Performance - Recent performance of pure bond funds has been disappointing, with nearly 70% of the 4,329 funds analyzed showing negative returns over the past month, and over 20% of funds reporting losses year-to-date [2] - The average returns for both medium- and short-term pure bond funds have also been negative during this period [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - Some analysts, such as Yin Hua Fund, suggest that if the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates, it could narrow the interest rate differential between China and the U.S., alleviating depreciation pressure on the RMB and creating favorable conditions for the People's Bank of China to implement looser monetary policies [3] - The market may see a technical rebound in bond prices due to reduced selling pressure and the upcoming "Double Festival," which typically leads to increased liquidity from the People's Bank of China [3][4] - However, other analysts, like Changcheng Fund, caution that the bond market remains in a weak phase driven by fragile sentiment, making it difficult to predict the trajectory of future market movements [4]