Group 1: Report General Information - Report Name: Precious Metals Daily Report 2026 - 01 - 27 [1] - Researcher: Zhong Junxuan, Precious Metals Researcher, Qualification No.: F03112694, Trading Consultation No.: Z0022090 [2] Group 2: Market Quotes - Shanghai Gold (SHFE) rose 1.49% to 1,148.14 yuan/gram, Shanghai Silver (SHFE) rose 9.93% to 29,005.00 yuan/kilogram; COMEX Gold was reported at 5,015.60 dollars/ounce, COMEX Silver was reported at 103.24 dollars/ounce; the US 10 - year Treasury yield was reported at 4.22%, and the US Dollar Index was reported at 97.07 [2] - US Q3 PCE price index quarterly -环比 annualized value was 2.8%, lower than the expected 3.5%; Q3 core PCE price index quarterly -环比 annualized value was 2.9%, in line with expectations and the previous value. The US November core PCE price index year - on - year value was 2.8%, in line with expectations. The US January S&P Global Manufacturing PMI was 51.9, lower than the expected 52; January S&P Global Services PMI was 52.5, lower than the expected 52.8; the composite PMI was 52.8, lower than the expected 53 [3] Group 3: Strategy Views - The previous strong performance of gold and silver prices reflects concerns about the US dollar credit and the stability of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, and their price increases have a solid macro - driving force [3] - The outflow of COMEX inventory caused by the suspension of US tariffs cannot ease the tight spot situation of silver. The current volatility of silver futures is also at a historical high. In the short term, attention should be paid to the callback risk, and it is recommended to temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude. The reference operating range of the main contract of Shanghai Gold is 1,060 - 1,150 yuan/gram, and the reference operating range of the main contract of Shanghai Silver is 23,690 - 27,000 yuan/kilogram [3] Group 4: Key Data Summary Gold - COMEX Gold: The closing price of the active contract was 5,004.80 dollars/ounce (up 0.44% from 4,983.10), trading volume was 42.18 million lots (up 54.13% from 27.37), and the position was 52.80 million lots (up 0.10% from 52.75) [5] - LBMA Gold: The closing price was 5,090.80 dollars/ounce (up 2.92% from 4,946.25), and the inventory was 1,118 tons (down 0.56% from 1,124) [5] - SHFE Gold: The closing price of the active contract was 1,143.32 yuan/gram (up 2.48% from 1,115.64), trading volume was 57.94 million lots (up 33.67% from 43.35), position was 38.08 million lots (up 3.96% from 36.63), inventory was 103.03 tons (up 1.00% from 102.01), and the settled funds were 69.664 billion yuan (inflow of 6.54% from 65.389 billion) [5] - AuT + D: The closing price was 1,144.26 yuan/gram (up 3.05% from 1,110.35), trading volume was 82.85 tons (up 52.67% from 54.27), and the position was 218.35 tons (up 4.81% from 208.32) [5] Silver - COMEX Silver: The closing price of the active contract was 103.89 dollars/ounce (up 0.61% from 103.26), the position was 15.20 million lots (up 0.33% from 15.15), and the inventory was 12,915 tons (down 0.28% from 12,952) [5] - LBMA Silver: The closing price was 109.61 dollars/ounce (up 10.71% from 99.00) [5] - SHFE Silver: The closing price of the active contract was 27,207.00 yuan/kilogram (up 8.98% from 24,965.00), trading volume was 237.63 million lots (up 29.68% from 183.24), position was 73.05 million lots (up 3.07% from 70.88), inventory was 573.81 tons (down 1.25% from 581.09), and the settled funds were 53.664 billion yuan (inflow of 12.33% from 47.774 billion) [5] - AgT + D: The closing price was 27,513.00 yuan/kilogram (up 10.10% from 24,988.00), trading volume was 702.20 tons (up 61.02% from 436.09), and the position was 3,360.232 tons (up 2.05% from 3,292.636) [5] Group 5: Price - Related Charts - Multiple charts show the relationships between precious metals prices (such as COMEX Gold, Shanghai Gold, COMEX Silver, Shanghai Silver), trading volume, open interest, and other factors over different time periods, including historical price trends, price - volume relationships, and price structures of near - and far - month contracts [10][20][25] Group 6: Internal - External Price Difference Gold - On January 26, 2026, for SHFE - COMEX, the SHFE - COMEX spread was 86.87 dollars/ounce; for SGE - LBMA, the SGE - LBMA spread was 93.56 dollars/ounce [45] Silver - On January 26, 2026, for SHFE - COMEX, the SHFE - COMEX spread was 18.68 dollars/ounce [45]

Group 1: Market Overview - Gold prices have surpassed $5,100 per ounce, reaching a historical high, with silver prices also rising concurrently. This price increase is driven by both safe-haven and monetary attributes [1] - Central banks globally are increasing their gold reserves to optimize foreign exchange structures and reduce reliance on single sovereign currencies. Private investors are also incorporating gold into their asset allocations to hedge against uncertainties [1] - Goldman Sachs has raised its year-end target price for gold from $4,900 to $5,400, citing ongoing global policy uncertainties and potential for further price increases in precious metals [1] Group 2: Industry and Company Insights - Zijin Mining is engaged in the exploration, development, and smelting of gold and copper, with a projected net profit for 2025 between 51 billion and 52 billion yuan [2] - Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining focuses on gold mining and smelting, expecting a net profit for 2025 in the range of 3 billion to 3.2 billion yuan [2] - Shengda Resources specializes in the mining and sales of silver and gold, holding nearly 10,000 tons of silver reserves [3] - Shandong Zhaojin Refining has achieved record processing volumes in gold and silver refining, with significant growth in gold repurchase business [4] - Yuguang Gold Lead is a major silver production base in China, utilizing unique processes for efficient precious metal recovery [4] - Lao Feng Xiang is involved in the research, design, production, and sales of gold jewelry, with gold jewelry prices reaching historical highs [5] - China Gold focuses on gold retail and brand operations, benefiting from the rising demand in the physical gold consumption market [6]

Economic Data - In 2025, China's total retail sales of consumer goods are expected to exceed 50 trillion yuan for the first time, reaching 50.1 trillion yuan, with a growth rate of 3.7% and a contribution rate of consumption to economic growth at 52%, an increase of 5 percentage points [6] - The number of motor vehicles in China is projected to reach 469 million by 2025, with 356 million being cars, and the number of drivers expected to reach 559 million, including 525 million car drivers [17] Trade and Policy - The U.S. announced an increase in tariffs on certain goods from South Korea to 25% due to the lack of approval from the South Korean parliament on a prior trade agreement [4] - The U.S. threatened to impose a 100% tariff on goods imported from Canada if Canada reaches a new trade agreement with China [5] - The Ministry of Commerce of China plans to expand market access and open up sectors such as telecommunications, healthcare, and education by 2026 [7] Financial and Investment - The People's Bank of China emphasized the need for proactive assessment of systemic financial risks and maintaining the stability of financial markets and the overall financial system [10] - The People's Bank of China will support the Hong Kong Monetary Authority in increasing the scale of RMB business funding arrangements from 100 billion yuan to 200 billion yuan [11] Corporate Developments - Shanghai-based AI startup StepFun completed over 5 billion yuan in Series B+ financing, setting a record for the largest single financing in the Chinese AI sector in the past 12 months [28] - Li Tong Electronics expects a net profit increase of 996.83% to 1240.57% in 2025, driven by profitability in its computing power business [35] - China Rare Earth anticipates a net profit of 143 million to 185 million yuan in 2025, marking a turnaround from a loss of 287 million yuan in the previous year [37] - Dongfang Risen expects a net loss of 2.3 billion to 2.9 billion yuan in 2025, despite a growing global photovoltaic installation market [54]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the current commodity market is characterized by a divergence between precious metals and energy metals, driven by a combination of "hedging and demand" logic [3][4] - Gold has reached a price of $5,100, reflecting a shift in investor sentiment towards gold as a "wealth anchor" amid declining trust in currencies and bonds, with a 17% increase this year [3][4] - Silver has surged by 14% in a single day, driven by both its financial attributes and industrial demand from sectors like photovoltaics and new energy, alongside a five-year supply shortage [3][4] Group 2 - Oil prices have declined due to increased supply from Kazakhstan's Black Sea port and the resumption of operations at the Tengiz oil field, which has balanced supply and demand [3][4] - Copper prices are rising due to recovering industrial demand, indicating a potential economic recovery, as copper is essential for manufacturing [3][4] - Investment strategies suggest focusing on hard logic commodities, with recommendations for gold ETFs and leading silver companies, while advising caution against high-volatility investments like oil futures [4][5] Group 3 - The overarching investment logic in commodities is that precious metals are influenced by currency trust, industrial metals are driven by demand recovery, and energy prices are determined by supply-demand balance [5] - A suggested asset allocation strategy includes holding 5%-10% in gold ETFs for hedging against geopolitical risks and 3%-5% in industrial metal stocks to benefit from economic recovery [5] - Investors are advised to avoid chasing high prices in gold and silver and instead wait for pullbacks to enter positions, while also focusing on low-risk ETFs for energy investments [5]

Group 1 - The precious metals market experienced significant volatility, with COMEX silver initially surging over 16% and then retracting, while COMEX gold fluctuated around the $5000 mark, closing with a modest gain of 0.5% [3] - The exchanges took measures to cool down the commodity futures market by adjusting trading limits and margin requirements for silver and tin futures [3] Group 2 - Alibaba launched its flagship AI model Qwen3-Max-Thinking, achieving several global records in authoritative evaluations, positioning it as the strongest domestic AI model to date [4] - The AI unicorn Jieyue Xingchen completed over 5 billion RMB in Series B+ financing, setting a new record for single financing in China's large model sector over the past 12 months [4] Group 3 - The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs advised citizens to avoid traveling to Japan during the Spring Festival due to safety concerns related to crime and natural disasters [5] - The Ministry of Commerce announced upcoming policies to stimulate service consumption and enhance inbound consumption [5] - The People's Bank of China emphasized expanding the coverage of macro-prudential policies to maintain financial market stability [5] Group 4 - The A-share market saw a slight decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.09% and trading volume increasing to 3.28 trillion RMB [8] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose slightly by 0.06%, while the Hang Seng Technology Index fell by 1.24% [8] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has issued multiple penalties for market manipulation and disclosure violations [8] Group 5 - Overseas institutions have shown increased interest in A-shares, focusing on quality investment opportunities in the electronics, power equipment, and machinery sectors [9] - Hong Kong-listed companies have actively engaged in share buybacks, with a total amount exceeding 11.7 billion HKD this year [9] Group 6 - The latest statistics from the Ministry of Public Security indicated that the number of motor vehicles in China reached 469 million by 2025, with new registrations exceeding 30 million for 11 consecutive years [10] - The Beijing humanoid robot innovation center successfully connected a robot to a new type of low-orbit satellite, marking a global first [10] Group 7 - The first batch of game licenses for 2026 has been announced, with 177 domestic and 5 imported games receiving approval [11] - Binance is exploring the reintroduction of stock tokens on its exchange, following previous regulatory challenges [12] Group 8 - The Hong Kong government plans to increase gold reserves to 2000 tons over the next three years and establish a central clearing system for gold [20] - International precious metal futures saw a general increase, with COMEX gold futures rising by 0.5% [20]

Core Viewpoint - The surge in gold and silver prices is driven by a combination of factors including monetary credit reconstruction, escalating geopolitical risks, and liquidity expectations, with gold prices potentially reaching $6,000 per ounce by 2026 [1][3]. Group 1: Gold and Silver Price Movements - On January 26, London spot gold broke through the $5,000 and $5,100 per ounce thresholds, reaching a historical high of $5,111 per ounce, while silver also hit a new record, surpassing $110 per ounce before settling at $108 [1]. - In the domestic futures market, the main contract for gold rose by 3.67%, reaching a new high of 1,151 yuan per gram, while silver surged nearly 13%, peaking at 28,226 yuan per kilogram [1]. Group 2: Institutional and Investor Sentiment - Various institutions maintain bullish outlooks on gold, with UBS setting a target price of $5,000 per ounce, while Goldman Sachs raised its year-end target from $4,900 to $5,400, citing increased demand from private investors and central banks [3]. - Bank of America has set a target of $6,000 per ounce for gold, predicting a significant price increase based on historical trends [3]. Group 3: Investment Trends and Demand - There is a notable increase in investor interest in gold, with many seeking to diversify their portfolios through various investment vehicles such as gold ETFs and stocks [5]. - The largest gold ETF in China surpassed 100 billion yuan in assets for the first time, reflecting a significant inflow of capital into gold investments [6]. Group 4: Central Bank Activities - Central banks globally continue to increase their gold reserves, with China's central bank reporting a rise in gold holdings, and emerging market central banks actively converting foreign reserves into gold [7]. - The World Gold Council reported that global official gold reserves reached approximately $3.69 trillion, with central banks purchasing gold at a rate significantly higher than in previous years [7]. Group 5: Market Risks and Regulatory Actions - Regulatory bodies have begun to implement measures to cool down the overheated gold market, including adjusting trading limits and increasing risk assessment requirements for gold investment products [8]. - Analysts caution that the current market is driven by emotional factors, and while the long-term outlook for gold remains positive, short-term corrections may be necessary due to overbought conditions [9].

Group 1 - Precious metals prices surged significantly on January 26, with silver reaching a peak increase of 14% to $117.75 per ounce before closing at approximately $108.6 per ounce, while gold and platinum also hit new highs [1][3] - Gold prices rose by 2.4% to $5111.17 per ounce, setting a historical record, and later adjusted to around $5050 per ounce [3] - The geopolitical tensions, particularly statements from Iranian officials regarding potential responses to U.S. aggression, have contributed to the strong support for gold prices amid ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties [5] Group 2 - The influx of new retail investors into the precious metals market, particularly from Asia and Europe, has driven the recent price increases, with a notable rise in physical gold and silver holdings [6] - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting is expected to maintain interest rates, but the investigation into Fed Chair Powell by the Trump administration raises concerns about the independence of the central bank and adds uncertainty to monetary policy [6] - Analysts predict further price increases for gold, with Societe Generale forecasting a potential rise to $6000 per ounce by year-end, while Morgan Stanley sets a bullish target of $5700 per ounce [6] Group 3 - Silver prices recently surpassed the $100 mark, driven by retail investment and tight supply in the physical market, which has amplified price volatility due to silver's dual role as both an industrial and investment metal [7] - Despite the price surge, some of the largest investors are reportedly reducing their silver positions, indicating potential profit-taking amid the ongoing market rally [7] - Industrial demand for silver, which typically accounts for about 60% of annual consumption, may weaken as companies seek cheaper alternatives in manufacturing processes [7]

Core Viewpoint - The weakening of the US dollar has fueled a significant rise in gold prices, with London gold reaching a historic high of $5,111.17 per ounce on January 26, marking an increase of over 17% since the beginning of the year [1]. Group 1: Drivers of Gold Price Surge - The surge in gold prices is driven by three main factors: increased geopolitical risks leading to heightened demand for safe-haven assets, the depreciation of the US dollar and concerns over its creditworthiness, and accelerated purchases of gold by global central banks and investors [4][5]. - Geopolitical risks have intensified, with the World Gold Council indicating that gold has become the preferred safe-haven asset amid rising market uncertainties [4]. - The US government's debt exceeding $38 trillion and the annual interest payments surpassing $1 trillion have raised doubts about the dollar's credibility, prompting a shift towards gold as a reserve asset [5]. Group 2: Market Logic Changes - The gold market has entered a phase of accelerated growth, contrasting with the previous year's gradual increase, driven by geopolitical events that inject additional risk premiums into gold prices [6]. - The underlying narrative for gold's rise remains unchanged, with geopolitical factors acting as an "accelerator" for price increases, while a potential return to a gold standard is noted among some capital movements [6][7]. - The current dynamics reflect a significant re-evaluation of gold's value in the context of a shifting global monetary landscape, although it does not imply a return to a gold standard [6]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Despite the current upward trend in gold prices, there are concerns about potential volatility and the need for cautious investment strategies among ordinary investors [8]. - Analysts suggest that while gold prices may continue to rise, investors should be wary of high volatility and plan their asset allocation accordingly, focusing on long-term strategies rather than short-term gains [8][9]. - Projections indicate that gold prices could fluctuate between $4,800 and $5,200 per ounce before the Lunar New Year, with some forecasts suggesting a target price of $6,000 per ounce in the near future [9].

Group 1: Market Trends - Gold prices have surged, with London spot gold breaking through $5,000 and reaching a historical high of $5,111 per ounce, while silver also hit a record high of $110 per ounce before settling at $108 [1] - The domestic futures market saw Shanghai gold futures rise by 3.67% to a new high of 1,151 RMB per gram, and Shanghai silver futures increased nearly 13% to a peak of 28,226 RMB per kilogram [1] - The overall market for precious metals is experiencing a revaluation driven by monetary credit reconstruction, escalating geopolitical risks, and liquidity expectations [1] Group 2: Institutional Outlook - Multiple institutions maintain bullish forecasts for gold, with UBS setting a target price of $5,000 per ounce, while Goldman Sachs raised its year-end target from $4,900 to $5,400 due to increasing demand from private investors and central banks [3] - Bank of America has set a target price of $6,000 per ounce for gold, citing historical trends where gold prices have risen significantly during bull markets [3] - Jefferies Group even suggests that gold could reach $6,600 per ounce this year, indicating a strong long-term bullish trend despite potential short-term corrections [3] Group 3: Investment Demand - There is a significant increase in investor demand for gold, with many seeking to invest in gold ETFs and stocks, leading to a surge in inquiries at brokerage firms [5] - The largest gold ETF in China surpassed 100 billion RMB in assets, reflecting a growing interest in gold investment products [6] - The total management scale of gold ETFs tracking the Shanghai Gold Exchange reached 267.9 billion RMB, prompting some ETFs to implement purchase limits to manage inflows [7] Group 4: Economic Factors - The weakening of the dollar's credit system and the acceleration of de-dollarization are contributing to the rising gold prices, as seen with Denmark's pension fund planning to divest from U.S. Treasury bonds [8] - Central banks globally continue to purchase gold at elevated levels, with estimates suggesting an average monthly purchase of 60 tons, significantly higher than pre-2022 levels [7] Group 5: Regulatory Environment - Regulatory bodies are taking measures to cool down the overheated market, including adjusting trading limits and increasing risk assessment requirements for gold investment products [9] - Major banks are also raising the risk assessment levels for clients participating in gold accumulation transactions, indicating a cautious approach to the current market dynamics [9]

Core Viewpoint - The surge in metal prices, particularly gold and silver, is driven by a combination of geopolitical risks, monetary policy expectations, and structural weaknesses in the dollar credit system, leading to significant investment opportunities in the precious metals sector [4][10]. Group 1: Metal Price Movements - On January 26, gold prices surpassed $5100 per ounce, while silver prices reached over $110 per ounce, marking a significant increase in the precious metals market [4][5]. - The A-share market saw the precious metals sector lead with a 7.3% increase, while basic metals also experienced a rise of 2.73% [2][3]. - Analysts predict that the overall strong trend in the precious metals market will continue, although caution is advised due to high volatility [4][10]. Group 2: Company Performance and Earnings - As of January 26, 73% of the 26 listed companies in the non-ferrous metals sector have reported positive earnings forecasts for 2025, largely attributed to rising metal prices [6][8]. - Companies like Zhao Jin Gold and Hunan Gold expect significant profit increases due to higher gold and other metal prices [7][8]. - The acquisition of gold mines by companies such as Luoyang Molybdenum indicates a strategic move to enhance production capabilities amid rising prices [8]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The current market dynamics suggest a potential for further price increases in metals, driven by global economic conditions and supply constraints [9][10]. - Analysts recommend a cautious approach to investment, suggesting strategies that include dollar-cost averaging and careful risk management [10][11]. - Regulatory measures may be implemented to curb excessive speculation in the metals market, emphasizing the need for compliance with trading rules [11].