油料日报 | 2025-07-16 短期震荡偏强，中长期修复看供应 大豆观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘豆一2507合约4149.00元/吨，较前日变化+18.00元/吨，幅度+0.44%。现货方面，食用豆现货基 差A07+151，较前日变化-18，幅度32.14%。 市场资讯汇总：7月14日(周一)，芝加哥期货交易所(CBOT)大豆期货小幅收低，交易商表示，市场预计美国作物长 势将良好。CBOT交投最活跃的11月新作大豆合约收低1/4美分，结算价报每蒲式耳10.07美元。稍早触及三个月最 低的每蒲式耳9.98-1/4美元，跌破10美元的重要心理关口，随后跌幅有所缩减。7月15日，东北市场今日大豆价格 暂稳。黑龙江哈尔滨市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.15元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江双鸭山宝清市场 国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.16元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江佳木斯富锦市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒 塔粮装车报价2.16元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江齐齐哈尔讷河市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.22元/斤， 较昨日平；黑龙江黑河嫩江市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.18元 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Sugar: Oscillation [1] - Cotton: Oscillation [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Sugar is affected by consecutive droughts from autumn to spring in Guangxi, leading to unfavorable emergence and early growth of sugarcane, with shorter and fewer sugarcane plants compared to the same period last year. Beet growth is generally good, but there has been excessive rainfall in the Inner Mongolia sugar beet production area recently, making it prone to pests and diseases. Internationally, it is necessary to continue monitoring the sugar production progress in Brazil and the growth of sugar crops in the Northern Hemisphere [1]. - Most cotton - growing areas in China have entered the budding to flowering stage, with the growth progress 4 to 7 days ahead of previous years. In July, Xinjiang is expected to have persistently high temperatures and more high - temperature days than usual, posing a high risk of heat damage to cotton. Currently, the total cotton inventory is decreasing, but the downstream market shows obvious off - season characteristics, and textile enterprises are cautious in raw material procurement. It is necessary to continuously monitor the impact of weather changes and tariff uncertainties [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Data Overview 3.1.1 Outer - Market Quotes - The price of US sugar increased from $16.31 on July 14, 2025, to $16.56 on July 15, 2025, with a growth rate of 1.53% [3]. - The price of US cotton rose from $68.11 on July 14, 2025, to $68.57 on July 15, 2025, with a growth rate of 0.68% [3]. 3.1.2 Spot Prices - The spot price of sugar in Nanning remained at 6060.0 from July 14 to July 15, 2025, with a growth rate of 0.00% [3]. - The spot price of sugar in Kunming stayed at 5905.0 from July 14 to July 15, 2025, with a growth rate of 0.00% [3]. - The cotton index 328 decreased from 3281 on July 14, 2025, to 3280 on July 15, 2025, with a decline rate of 0.05% [3]. - The spot price of cotton in Xinjiang increased from 15250.0 on July 14, 2025, to 15300.0 on July 15, 2025, with a growth rate of 0.33% [3]. 3.1.3 Spread Overview - The SR01 - 05 spread decreased from 57.0 on July 14, 2025, to 50.0 on July 15, 2025, with a decline rate of 12.28% [3]. - The SR05 - 09 spread increased from - 235.0 on July 14, 2025, to - 217.0 on July 15, 2025, with a decline rate of - 7.66% [3]. - The SR09 - 01 spread decreased from 178.0 on July 14, 2025, to 167.0 on July 15, 2025, with a decline rate of 6.18% [3]. - The CF01 - 05 spread increased from 25.0 on July 14, 2025, to 35.0 on July 15, 2025, with a growth rate of 40.00% [3]. - The CF05 - 09 spread increased from - 85.0 on July 14, 2025, to - 65.0 on July 15, 2025, with a decline rate of - 23.53% [3]. - The CF09 - 01 spread decreased from 60.0 on July 14, 2025, to 30.0 on July 15, 2025, with a decline rate of 50.00% [3]. - The sugar 01 basis increased from 266.0 on July 14, 2025, to 270.0 on July 15, 2025, with a growth rate of 1.50% [3]. - The sugar 05 basis decreased from 323.0 on July 14, 2025, to 320.0 on July 15, 2025, with a decline rate of - 0.93% [3]. - The sugar 09 basis increased from 88.0 on July 14, 2025, to 103.0 on July 15, 2025, with a growth rate of 17.05% [3]. - The cotton 01 basis increased from 1480.0 on July 14, 2025, to 1482.0 on July 15, 2025, with a growth rate of 0.14% [3]. - The cotton 05 basis increased from 1505.0 on July 14, 2025, to 1517.0 on July 15, 2025, with a growth rate of 0.80% [3]. - The cotton 09 basis increased from 1420.0 on July 14, 2025, to 1452.0 on July 15, 2025, with a growth rate of 2.25% [3]. 3.1.4 Import Prices - The import price of cotton cotlookA remained at 78.05 from July 14 to July 15, 2025, with a growth rate of 0.00% [3]. 3.1.5 Profit Margins - The sugar import profit remained at 1656.5 from July 14 to July 15, 2025, with a growth rate of 0.00% [3]. 3.1.6 Options - The implied volatility of SR509C5800 is 0.075, and the historical volatility of its futures underlying SR509 is 7.53 [3]. - The implied volatility of SR509P5800 is 0.0743 [3]. - The implied volatility of CF509C13800 is 0.0932, and the historical volatility of its futures underlying CF509 is 8.31 [3]. - The implied volatility of CF509P13800 is 0.0994 [3]. 3.1.7 Warehouse Receipts - The number of sugar warehouse receipts decreased from 22716.0 on July 14, 2025, to 22602.0 on July 15, 2025, with a decline rate of 0.50% [3]. - The number of cotton warehouse receipts decreased from 9807.0 on July 14, 2025, to 9716.0 on July 15, 2025, with a decline rate of 0.93% [3]. 3.2 Company Information - Report research is carried out by CINDA Futures Co., Ltd, a limited - liability company specializing in domestic futures business. It is wholly - owned by CINDA Securities Co., Ltd, with a registered capital of 600 million RMB. It is one of the large - scale, standardized, and high - reputation futures companies in China [9]. - The company is a full - settlement member of the China Financial Futures Exchange, a full - fledged member of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, and Dalian Commodity Exchange, a member of the Shanghai International Energy Exchange and Guangzhou Futures Exchange, an observer of the China Securities Association, and an observer member of the Asset Management Association of China [9]

Group 1: Pig Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core View The current breeding profit has returned to a low level, and the market is cautious about expanding production capacity. There is no basis for a significant decline in the market. The market expects a potential market wave in July and August due to the impact of piglet diarrhea at the beginning of the year, but the actual subsequent slaughter is expected to continue to recover, and the live inventory continues to be postponed. The pressure on the upper side of the 09 contract is accumulating. Pay attention to the pressure above 14,500 yuan/ton and operate with a short - bias when the price is high [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Futures Indicators**: The main contract price increased by 8.43% to 450 yuan/ton, the "pig 2511" contract rose 0.11% to 13,620 yuan/ton, and the "pig 2509" contract fell 0.25% to 14,250 yuan/ton. The 9 - 11 spread decreased by 7.35%. The main contract positions decreased by 2.17%, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [2]. - **Spot Prices**: Spot prices in Henan remained unchanged, while those in Shandong, Sichuan, Liaoning, Hunan, and Hebei decreased slightly. The sample point slaughter volume increased by 0.84%, the weekly white - strip price remained unchanged, the weekly piglet price decreased by 3.20%, the weekly sow price remained unchanged, the weekly slaughter weight increased by 0.30%, the weekly self - breeding profit increased by 11.82%, and the weekly purchased - pig breeding profit increased by 220.34%. The monthly fertile sow inventory increased by 0.10% [2]. Group 2: Oil and Fat Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core View For palm oil, the Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures have pulled back from high levels, with limited rebound space and the risk of further decline after the rebound. Domestic palm oil still has the pressure to weaken and adjust, and it is expected to seek support at 8,500 yuan/ton. For soybean oil, the market's digestion of the US sanctions on Russia has put pressure on crude oil, dragging down the vegetable oil market. CBOT soybean oil has maintained a narrow - range shock adjustment. Domestic soybean imports are expected to be high in July - August, but the market's attention has shifted to the limited imports in the fourth quarter, and there will be positive factors in August [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Futures and Spot Data**: For soybean oil, the current price in Jiangsu increased by 0.36%, the futures price of Y2509 increased by 0.23%, and the basis increased by 5.08%. For palm oil, the current price in Guangdong decreased by 0.34%, the futures price of P2509 decreased by 0.46%, and the basis changed significantly. For rapeseed oil, the current price in Jiangsu increased by 0.31%, the futures price of Ol209 increased by 0.21%, and the basis increased by 43.10%. There were also changes in cross - period spreads and price differences between different oils [4]. Group 3: Corn Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core View On July 15, the transaction volume of imported corn auctions reached a new low. With the depletion of remaining grain, traders are more likely to support prices, and the overall price is stable with partial rebounds. The downstream deep - processing industry is in the seasonal maintenance period, and the demand from the breeding end is mainly for rigid replenishment. In the medium term, the tight supply of corn and the increase in breeding consumption will support the corn price. In the short term, the weak market sentiment is gradually being released, and the corn price is stabilizing, with the futures market remaining volatile. Attention should be paid to the scale and transaction of subsequent auctions [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Futures and Spot Data**: The price of the "corn 2509" contract decreased by 0.30%, the Pingcang price in Jinzhou Port remained unchanged, the basis increased by 14.58%, the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 7.81%, and the import profit decreased by 2.83%. For corn starch, the price of the "corn starch 2509" contract decreased by 0.23%, and the basis increased by 11.32%. The positions of both increased, while the number of warehouse receipts decreased [5]. Group 4: Sugar Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core View The global sugar supply is becoming more abundant, putting pressure on the price of raw sugar, which is expected to maintain a bottom - shock pattern. The domestic market demand is weak, and the low inventory supports the spot price in Guangxi. However, the entry of processed sugar into the market has put pressure on prices. Considering the increase in future imports, the domestic supply - demand situation will gradually ease. It is recommended to maintain a short - bias strategy after the price rebounds, with the pressure reference range of 5,800 - 5,900 yuan/ton [8]. Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Futures Indicators**: The price of the "sugar 2601" contract decreased by 0.07%, the "sugar 2509" contract decreased by 0.26%, and the ICE raw sugar main contract increased by 1.53%. The 1 - 9 spread increased by 6.18%. The main contract positions decreased by 3.20%, the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 0.12%, and the effective forecast decreased by 100% [8]. - **Spot Market Prices**: The spot price in Nanning remained unchanged, while that in Kunming increased by 0.43%. The import price of Brazilian sugar (both within and outside the quota) decreased, and the price difference with Nanning also decreased [8]. - **Industry Situation**: The cumulative national sugar production increased by 12.03%, the cumulative sales increased by 23.07%, the cumulative national sales rate increased by 9.70%, and the industrial inventory decreased by 9.56% [8]. Group 5: Cotton Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core View The differentiation between the upstream and downstream of the cotton industry has intensified, with the downstream profits, cash flow deteriorating, and the开机 rate decreasing while the finished - product inventory increasing. However, the tight commercial inventory of cotton in the 2024/25 season before the new cotton is listed is difficult to resolve, which still strongly supports the cotton price. In the short term, the domestic cotton price may fluctuate in a moderately strong range, while it will face pressure after the new cotton is listed [9]. Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Futures Market Prices**: The price of the "cotton 2509" contract decreased by 0.18%, the "cotton 2601" contract increased by 0.04%, and the ICE US cotton main contract increased by 0.68%. The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 50%. The main contract positions decreased by 1.98%, the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 0.93%, and the effective forecast increased by 3.24% [9]. - **Spot Market Prices**: The Xinjiang arrival price, CC Index, and FC Index all increased to varying degrees. Some price differences also changed [9]. - **Industry Situation**: The commercial inventory decreased by 9.5%, the industrial inventory decreased by 2.9%, the import volume decreased by 33.3%, and the bonded - area inventory decreased by 8.9%. The yarn inventory days increased by 14.1%, and the grey - cloth inventory days increased by 3.2%. The cotton outbound shipping volume increased by 22.6%, and the clothing and textile retail sales increased by 4.0% [9]. Group 6: Meal Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core View The excellent rate of US soybeans exceeds market expectations, and the market is worried about the impact of tariffs. The futures market remains at the bottom. The Brazilian soybean premium is continuously rising, and the Brazilian soybeans are relatively strong. Currently, the domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories continue to rise, the开机 rate remains high, and the basis fluctuates at a low level. Although the subsequent supply is expected to maintain a high arrival volume, the continuity of soybean arrivals after October is uncertain, and the basis decline space is limited. The soybean meal main contract has returned above the 20 - day moving average, and with the stabilization of US soybeans and the increase in premiums, the domestic futures market may have further upward space. It is recommended to operate with a cautious long - bias [11]. Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Futures and Spot Data**: For soybean meal, the spot price in Jiangsu remained unchanged, the futures price of M2509 decreased by 0.47%, and the basis increased by 8.64%. For rapeseed meal, the spot price in Jiangsu increased by 0.39%, the futures price of RM2509 decreased by 0.15%, and the basis increased by 12.84%. For soybeans, the spot price in Harbin remained unchanged, the futures price of the soybean - one main contract increased by 0.44%, and the basis decreased by 10.53%. The basis of the soybean - two main contract increased by 39.13% [11]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: The soybean meal cross - period spread decreased by 27.59%, the rapeseed meal cross - period spread decreased by 3.38%, the oil - meal ratio increased slightly, and the soybean - rapeseed meal price difference decreased [11].

2025年07月16日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 商 品 研 究 所 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：产地复产存疑，等待矛盾演化 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：美豆天气炒作不足，缺乏驱动 | 2 | | 豆粕：美豆微跌，连粕或震荡 | 4 | | 豆一：技术面偏强，盘面反弹震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：震荡调整 | 6 | | 白糖：区间整理为主 | 8 | | 棉花：维持震荡偏强 | 9 | | 鸡蛋：旺季反弹预期兑现，淘汰情绪下降 | 11 | | 生猪：维持震荡 | 12 | | 花生：下方有支撑 | 13 | 2025 年 7 月 16 日 棕榈油：产地复产存疑，等待矛盾演化 豆油：美豆天气炒作不足，缺乏驱动 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 棕榈油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,708 | -0.46% | 8,7 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Cotton and Cotton Yarn Daily Report [2] - Date: July 15, 2024 [2] - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [2] Group 2: Market Information Futures Market - CF01 closed at 13820 with a 5-point increase, volume of 59,553 hands (up 21286), and open interest of 215,751 (up 1145) [3] - CF05 closed at 13785 with a 5-point decrease, volume of 1,874 hands (up 958), and open interest of 10,369 (up 132) [3] - CF09 closed at 13850 with a 25-point decrease, volume of 207,411 hands (up 68734), and open interest of 546,688 (down 11044) [3] - CY01 closed at 20035 with a 35-point decrease, volume of 21 hands (down 15), and open interest of 92 (up 1) [3] - CY05 closed at 0 with no change, volume of 0 hands, and open interest of 2 (no change) [3] - CY09 closed at 20050 with a 70-point decrease, volume of 7077 hands (up 1693), and open interest of 21168 (down 1042) [3] Spot Market - CCIndex3128B was at 15302 yuan/ton, up 36 [3] - Cot A was at 78.05 cents/pound, down 0.40 [3] - (FC Index):M: arrival price was at 76.62, down 0.30 [3] - Polyester staple fiber was at 7450 yuan/ton, up 70 [3] - Viscose staple fiber was at 12600 yuan/ton, no change [3] Spreads - Cotton inter - month spreads: 1 - 5 spread was 35 (up 10), 5 - 9 spread was - 65 (up 20), 9 - 1 spread was 30 (down 30) [3] - Cotton yarn inter - month spreads: 1 - 5 spread was 20035 (down 35), 5 - 9 spread was - 20050 (up 70), 9 - 1 spread was 15 (down 35) [3] - Cross - variety spreads: CY01 - CF01 was 6215 (down 40), CY05 - CF05 was (13785) (up 5), CY09 - CF09 was 6200 (down 45) [3] - Domestic - foreign spreads: 1% tariff domestic - foreign cotton spread was 1508 (up 77), sliding - scale tariff domestic - foreign cotton spread was 822 (up 53), domestic - foreign cotton yarn spread was - 1589 (down 14) [3] Group 3: Market News and Views Cotton Market News - As of the week ending July 12, Brazil's cotton harvest progress was 13.6% (up 6.3 percentage points week - on - week, 3.1 percentage points slower than last year) [6] - As of July 13, the budding rate of US cotton in 15 major planting states was 61% (1 percentage point slower than last year and the five - year average), the boll - setting rate was 23% (3 percentage points slower than last year, 1 percentage point slower than the five - year average), and the good - to - excellent rate was 54% (9 percentage points higher than last year, 8 percentage points higher than the five - year average) [6] - CONAB's July 2024/25 Brazilian cotton production forecast was 393.8 million tons (up 2.5 million tons from the previous month), with planted area at 2.0838 million hectares and yield at 126 kg/mu [6] Trading Logic - US cotton may be slightly weak in the short term but has potential upside due to possible trade negotiations and weather factors [7] - Zhengzhou cotton may face limited upside due to average downstream demand and potential additional sliding - scale tariff quotas, despite low current supply [7] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: US cotton is expected to be slightly bullish and range - bound, while Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be bullish and range - bound in the short term [8] - Arbitrage: Hold off [9] - Options: Sell put options [9][15] Cotton Yarn Industry News - The all - cotton greige fabric market has been sluggish, with low sales, high inventory, few orders, and low loom operation rates [11] - The pure - cotton yarn market has seen little change, with stable prices, low downstream purchases, and continued production cuts by inland spinning mills [11] Group 4: Options Option Data - CF509C13800.CZC closed at 180.00 (down 41.9%), with an implied volatility of 9.3% [13] - CF509P13600.CZC closed at 62.00 (down 50.8%), with an implied volatility of 9.7% [13] - CF509P13000.CZC closed at 16.00 (up 23.1%), with an implied volatility of 14.3% [13] Volatility - The 10 - day HV of Zhengzhou cotton was 3.2429, slightly lower than the previous day [13] Option Strategy - The PCR of the main Zhengzhou cotton contract's open interest was 0.9770, and the PCR of trading volume was 0.7034, with increased trading volume for both calls and puts and a rise in bearish sentiment [14] - Recommend selling put options [15]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal markets have limited changes, with reduced market volatility. The soybean meal futures price is driven by the US soybean market and market information, while the rapeseed meal futures price is affected by the uncertainty of future supply. The international soybean market has supply pressure, mainly concentrated in South America. The domestic spot market is relatively loose, with increasing oil mill operating rates and inventory accumulation. The report provides trading strategies, including suggesting to exit long positions and positive spreads, and to wait and see for options [2][3][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - The US soybean futures showed a strong trend. After the monthly supply - demand report showed negative news, the market rebounded. The domestic soybean meal futures were driven by the US soybean market and market information, while the rapeseed meal futures rebounded significantly due to the uncertainty of future supply. The inter - month spreads of domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures showed different trends [2]. Fundamentals - The adjustment of the US soybean new - crop balance sheet was negative, with lower exports and higher crushing, and a slight increase in ending stocks. As of July 6, the good - excellent rate of US soybeans was 66%. The export inspection volume of old - crop US soybeans was 389,400 tons as of July 3. The May US soybean crushing data was good, with a 1.37% month - on - month increase. The selling progress of Brazilian farmers was slow, and the recent selling progress continued to slow down, with price pressure emerging. Brazilian soybean crushing decreased, and the crushing profit was relatively low. Argentina's domestic crushing may improve, but soybean exports may increase. Overall, the international soybean supply pressure is concentrated in South America [3]. - The domestic spot market was relatively loose. As of July 11, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.2954 million tons, the operating rate was 64.52%, the soybean inventory was 6.5749 million tons (a 3.31% increase from last week and an 11.18% increase year - on - year), and the soybean meal inventory was 886,200 tons (a 7.76% increase from last week and a 27.32% decrease year - on - year). The demand for domestic rapeseed meal has gradually weakened, and although the supply is uncertain, the demand is also weakening, so it is expected to be in a volatile state [5]. Macro and Logic Analysis - The Sino - US negotiation in London provided no clear information, and the market was still worried about supply uncertainty. The domestic soybean meal futures had some support, but the rebound space was limited. The US soybean futures were expected to have limited deep - decline and rebound space. The inter - month spreads of the futures may face some pressure but also have limited deep - decline space. The rapeseed meal market was mainly affected by supply uncertainty, and it was difficult to show a strong trend. The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was expected to widen, and the inter - month spread of rapeseed meal futures may also face pressure [6]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: It is recommended to exit long positions and wait and see. - Arbitrage: It is recommended to exit the M91 positive spread and wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [7].

Report Overview - The report is a corn starch daily report dated July 15, 2025, focusing on corn and corn starch markets, including data, market analysis, trading strategies, and option strategies [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - The US corn planting is completed, and the US corn market is weak. With the reduction of Sino - US tariffs, the US corn price continues to decline, and weather factors may become a future market driver. In China, the import profit of foreign corn is high. The northern port's flat - warehouse price is stable, the spot price in the Northeast corn - producing area has declined, and the supply in North China is expected to be tight. The corn starch inventory has increased, and the price is mainly affected by corn price and downstream stocking. In the short - term, the 09 corn will oscillate, and the basis will strengthen, with potential for a rebound. The 09 starch's decline space is limited [4][6][7][8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Data 3.1.1 Futures Disk - Corn futures contracts C2601, C2605, C2509 and corn starch futures contracts CS2601, CS2605, CS2509 all showed price declines on July 15, 2025. For example, C2601 closed at 2236, down 2 (-0.09%), and CS2601 closed at 2605, down 5 (-0.19%). The trading volume of most contracts decreased, while the open interest of some contracts increased [2] 3.1.2 Spot and Basis - Corn spot prices in different regions had different trends. For example, the price in Qinggang decreased by 10 to 2230, while that in Shouguang increased by 10 to 2454. Corn starch spot prices remained stable. The basis of corn and corn starch showed different values in various regions [2] 3.1.3 Spreads - Corn inter - term spreads, corn starch inter - term spreads, and cross - variety spreads all had price changes. For example, C01 - C05 spread was - 36, down 2, and CS09 - C09 spread was 346, up 1 [2] 3.2 Second Part: Market Judgment 3.2.1 Corn - The US corn market is affected by planting completion, tariff reduction, and potential weather speculation. In China, the import profit of foreign corn is high, the northern port price is stable, the Northeast spot price has declined, the North China supply is tight, and the domestic breeding demand is weak. The 09 corn futures continue to decline, but there is potential for a rebound due to tight supply in North China [4][6] 3.2.2 Starch - The number of trucks arriving at Shandong's deep - processing plants has decreased, and the corn spot price in Shandong is stable. The corn starch inventory has increased, with a monthly increase of 2.14% and a year - on - year increase of 26.97%. The starch price is affected by corn price and downstream stocking. The 09 starch futures are weakly oscillating, and the decline space is limited [7] 3.2.3 Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Domestic 09 corn will have narrow - range oscillations, and a light - position short - term long position in 09 corn can be considered. Arbitrage: Close the position of buying spot and shorting 09 corn, and widen the spread between 09 corn and starch at low levels for oscillating operations [8][9] 3.3 Third Part: Corn Options - Option Strategy: Spot - holding enterprises can sell corn call options [12] 3.4 Fourth Part: Related Attachments - The attachments include charts of corn spot prices in different regions, corn 09 contract basis, corn 9 - 1 spread, corn starch 9 - 1 spread, corn starch 09 contract basis, and corn starch - corn 09 contract spread, which visually show the price trends and relationships of relevant products [14][16][21]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The USDA July report was bearish, raising the U.S. soybean inventory digestion rate to 7.1% and the global soybean inventory digestion rate to 20.57%. Despite this, the short - term weather in the U.S. soybean - growing areas is normal for growth. With the pressure of concentrated arrivals of Brazilian soybeans, domestic soybean crushing in July and August is expected to exceed 10 million tons, and the pressure of soybean meal inventory accumulation is expected to last until September. The buying of soybeans from October to January is slow. On the demand side, the short - term high inventory of pig and poultry farming supports feed demand, and the high cost - performance of soybean meal increases its proportion in feed, with high - level提货. However, wheat substitution for corn in some areas reduces protein consumption. Recently, the trading volume of soybean meal has increased at low prices. Overall, the soybean meal inventory continues to rise, but the accumulation speed has slowed down slightly. The short - term inventory pressure is expected to keep the spot basis oscillating at a low level. The M01 contract is recommended to be bought on dips as the import cost is expected to support it [7][8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs a. Basis Data - For the soybean meal main - contract basis (Zhangjiagang), the Dalian value was - 52 with a change of - 36 on July 14. The 43% soybean meal spot basis (against the main contract) in Zhangjiagang was - 162 with a change of - 16. The rapeseed meal spot basis in Guangdong was - 119 with a change of - 6 [6]. b. Spread Data - The M9 - M1 spread, M9 - RM9 spread, RM9 - 1 spread, and the spot and盘面 spreads between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong are presented, with specific values such as M9 - 1 being - 29, M9 - RM9 being 10, RM9 - 1 being 355, the spot spread (Guangdong) of soybean meal - rapeseed meal being 333, and the盘面 spread (main) being 260 [7]. c. International Data - The Brazilian soybean CNF premium, the U.S. dollar - RMB exchange rate, and the盘面 profit of imported soybeans are shown. For example, the Brazilian soybean CNF premium is 74.00 (in cents per bushel), the exchange rate is 7.1693, and the盘面 profit of imported soybeans is 268 yuan/ton [7]. d. Inventory Data - Data on Chinese port soybean inventory, major oil - mill soybean inventory, feed - enterprise soybean meal inventory days, and major oil - mill soybean meal inventory are provided, showing trends from 2020 - 2025. Currently, domestic soybean inventory has reached a high level, and soybean meal is in an inventory - accumulation cycle, with the feed - enterprise soybean meal inventory days increasing [7][8]. e.开机 and压榨情况 - Data on the major oil - mill soybean crushing volume and开机 rate from 2020 - 2025 are presented, indicating the开机 and crushing situation in the industry [7]. f. Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: The USDA July report was bearish, but short - term weather in U.S. soybean - growing areas is favorable. Brazilian soybean arrivals will lead to high - volume domestic crushing in July and August, with inventory - accumulation pressure until September and slow buying from October to January. - Demand: High inventory of pig and poultry farming supports feed demand, high cost - performance of soybean meal increases its proportion in feed, but wheat substitution for corn in some areas reduces protein consumption. Recent low - price trading volume of soybean meal has increased [7][8].

油料日报 | 2025-07-15 油料市场情绪稳定，价格持续震荡 大豆观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘豆一2509合约4131.00元/吨，较前日变化+30.00元/吨，幅度+0.73%。现货方面，食用豆现货基 差A09+169，较前日变化-30，幅度32.14%。 市场资讯汇总：黑龙江哈尔滨市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.15元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江双鸭山 宝清市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.16元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江佳木斯富锦市场国标一等蛋白39% 蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.16元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江齐齐哈尔讷河市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价 2.22元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江黑河嫩江市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.18元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙 江绥化海伦市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.20元/斤，较昨日平。 昨日豆一期货价格震荡运行，东北地区大豆价格整体持稳，未来短期内供需状况难有改善，需重点关注储备豆的 拍卖可能给市场带来的变化。但近期地方储备拍卖停滞，因此市场相对安静，价格短期内难涨难跌。关内大豆价 格稳中有降，粮贸企业库存偏紧。 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-07-15 现货购销冷清，豆粕维持震荡 粕类观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘豆粕2509合约2992元/吨，较前日变动+16元/吨，幅度+0.54%；菜粕2509合约2659元/吨，较前 日变动+26元/吨，幅度+0.99%。现货方面，天津地区豆粕现货价格2910元/吨，较前日变动+0元/吨，现货基差M09-82， 较前日变动-16；江苏地区豆粕现货2810元/吨，较前日变动+0元/吨，现货基差M09-182，较前日变动-16；广东地 区豆粕现货价格2800元/吨，较前日变动跌+0元/吨，现货基差M09-192，较前日变动-16。福建地区菜粕现货价格2660 元/吨，较前日变动+30元/吨，现货基差RM09+1，较前日变动+4。 近期市场资讯，美国农业部发布7月供需报告，将2025/26年度美国大豆产量下调500万蒲至43亿蒲，维持大豆单产 52.5蒲/英亩不变；大豆压榨量上调5000万蒲至25.4亿蒲；大豆出口量下调7000万蒲至17.5亿蒲；大豆期末库存上调 1500万蒲至3.1亿蒲。2025/26年度全球大豆产量为4.2768亿吨，较上月调高86万吨，比上一年度增加 ...