Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for both soybeans and peanuts is neutral [4][5] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The downstream procurement demand for soybeans is low, and the soybean price is oscillating. The domestic soybean futures price declined slightly yesterday, while the prices in various regions of domestic soybeans were stable with a slight increase. The supply - demand is weak, which gives the soybean price a certain resilience [1][3] - The domestic peanut futures price oscillated yesterday. The peanut spot market showed a slightly stronger trend last week, with the trading atmosphere warming up and the price center gradually moving up. The shortage of peanuts at the grassroots level and the delay of the new - season sowing progress due to drought have an impact on the market [4] Group 3: Summary of Specific Content Soybean Analysis - **Market Data**: Yesterday, the closing price of the bean - one 2507 contract was 4194.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 31.00 yuan/ton (- 0.73%) from the previous day. The spot basis of edible beans was A07 - 34, a change of + 31 (+ 32.14%) from the previous day [1] - **Market News**: On Wednesday, CBOT soybean futures closed higher, with the benchmark contract up 0.8%. In the domestic market, the prices of national standard first - class soybeans in various regions of Heilongjiang remained stable [2] - **Market Situation**: The domestic soybean futures price declined slightly. The prices of domestic soybeans in various regions were stable with a slight increase due to less remaining grain and extremely low market inventory. The downstream procurement willingness was weak, resulting in a significant decline in reserve auction volume and lower procurement volume of downstream factories. The weak supply - demand situation gave the soybean price a certain resilience [3] Peanut Analysis - **Market Data**: Yesterday, the closing price of the peanut 2510 contract was 8372.00 yuan/ton, a change of + 20.00 yuan/ton (+ 0.24%) from the previous day. The average spot price of peanuts was 8500.00 yuan/ton, a change of + 80.00 yuan/ton (+ 0.95%) month - on - month. The spot basis was PK10 - 372.00, a change of - 20.00 (+ 5.68%) month - on - month [4] - **Market News**: The prices of peanuts in different regions were reported, such as 4.35 - 4.40 yuan/jin for Henan Huangludian Baisha common peanuts [4] - **Market Situation**: The domestic peanut futures price oscillated. The peanut spot market showed a slightly stronger trend last week. The low supply at the grassroots level and the delay of new - season sowing due to drought affected the market [4]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2) Core Views of the Report - The sentiment in the domestic soybean market has improved, with short - term soybean futures prices expected to be oscillating stronger, but the rebound space is restricted by supply pressure [5]. - The international oil price decline has an impact on the entire oil market. The short - term sentiment disturbance in the oil market has increased, and the futures prices of palm oil are expected to be oscillating weaker [7]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Bean Meal (M) - **Price Trend**: The intraday view is oscillating stronger, the mid - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillating stronger [5]. - **Core Logic**: The combined weather themes in North and South American soybean producing areas have boosted the market's bullish sentiment. The rise in US soybean futures prices has lifted the domestic soybean market. Although there is an expectation of improved supply in the domestic market, the linkage between the domestic and foreign markets has been restored. The short - term soybean futures prices are oscillating stronger, but the rebound space is restricted by supply pressure [5]. b. Palm Oil (P) - **Price Trend**: The intraday view is oscillating weaker, the mid - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillating weaker [7]. - **Core Logic**: The decline in international oil prices has affected the entire oil market. Southeast Asian palm oil production and demand are both increasing. Whether the exports of Malaysian palm oil can remain strong determines whether the inventory will continue to accumulate. With the rotation in the oil sector, palm oil will receive indirect support from rapeseed oil. The short - term sentiment disturbance in the oil market has increased, and the futures prices are oscillating weaker [7]. c. Other Related Factors - **For Bean Meal 2509**: The influencing factors include import arrival rhythm, customs clearance inspection, oil refinery operation rhythm, and stocking demand [6]. - **For Soybean Oil 2509**: The influencing factors are US tariff policy, US soybean oil inventory, biodiesel demand, domestic raw material supply rhythm, and oil refinery inventory [6]. - **For Palm 2509**: The influencing factors involve Malaysian palm production and exports, Indonesian exports, tariff policies of major producing countries, domestic arrival and inventory, and substitution demand [6].

Report Overview - Report Name: Cotton and Cotton Yarn Daily Report - Date: May 22, 2024 - Researcher: Liu Qiannan 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The market fundamentals have changed little, but the macro - level is relatively optimistic. It is expected that Zhengzhou cotton will maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend. The future trend of US cotton is likely to be slightly stronger in a volatile manner, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to show a stronger trend under the influence of the macro - environment [7][8] - For the cotton yarn industry, the spot market trading is okay, but the price is basically stable. The downstream lacks strong orders, and market confidence is insufficient [10] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Information - **Futures Disk**: The closing prices of CF01, CF05, CF09, and CY09 contracts decreased by 5, 10, 10, and 15 respectively; the trading volumes of CF01, CF05, CF09, and CY09 decreased by 8315, 238, 124038, and 66 respectively; the open interest of CF01, CF05, and CF09 increased by 2298, 135, and 4227 respectively, while that of CY09 decreased by 16 [3] - **Spot Price**: CCIndex3128B increased by 17 yuan/ton to 14567 yuan/ton; Cot A increased by 0.65 cents/pound to 78.25 cents/pound; CY IndexC32S decreased by 550 to 20520; FCY IndexC33S decreased by 113 to 21787; Indian S - 6 decreased by 100 to 54200; polyester staple fiber increased by 70 to 7450; pure polyester yarn T32S remained unchanged at 11200; viscose staple fiber remained unchanged at 12800; viscose yarn R30S remained unchanged at 17250 [3] - **Spread**: In cotton inter - period spreads, the 1 - 5 spread was - 20 (down 15), the 5 - 9 spread was 75 (up 20), and the 9 - 1 spread was - 55 (down 5). In cotton yarn inter - period spreads, the 1 - 5 spread was 0 (unchanged), the 5 - 9 spread was - 19695 (up 15), and the 9 - 1 spread was 19695 (down 15). The CY01 - CF01 spread was - 13485 (up 5), CY05 - CF05 was - 13505 (down 10), and CY09 - CF09 was 6265 (down 5). The 1% tariff internal - external cotton spread was 668 (down 96), the sliding - scale internal - external cotton spread was 17 (down 61), and the internal - external yarn spread was - 1267 (down 437) [3] 3.2 Market News and Views - **Cotton Market News**: From May 15 - 21, 2025, the weekly rainfall in India's cotton - producing areas (93.6%) was 21.5mm, 17.5mm higher than normal and 11.9mm higher than last year. From March 1 - May 21, 2025, the cumulative rainfall was 64mm, 37.8mm higher than normal. As of May 20, ICE's deliverable No. 2 cotton futures contracts increased to 39796 bales. As of the week of May 18, in Texas, the weighted average of very short + short surface soil moisture was 54% (17 percentage points higher year - on - year), and the underground was 59% (10 percentage points higher year - on - year). The cotton planting progress reached 35%, 1 percentage point higher than last year and 5 percentage points higher than normal [6] - **Trading Logic**: The market fundamentals have changed little, but the macro - level is relatively optimistic, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend [7] - **Trading Strategy**: - **Single - side**: The future trend of US cotton is likely to be slightly stronger in a volatile manner, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to show a stronger trend under the influence of the macro - environment [8] - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [9] - **Options**: Wait and see [10] - **Cotton Yarn Industry News**: The spot market trading of pure cotton yarn is okay, but the price is basically stable. The downstream lacks strong orders, and market confidence is insufficient. Spinning mills' profits are at break - even or slightly profitable. Zhengzhou cotton futures have been strong recently, but spinning mills have not continuously raised cotton yarn prices, and the grey fabric price is also stable. Weaving mills with orders still purchase as needed, and some demand has weakened. Weaving mills are currently on the sidelines [10] 3.3 Options - Volatility: The 120 - day HV of cotton today is 10.6050, with volatility slightly lower than the previous day. The implied volatility of CF509 - C - 13400 is 9.9%, CF509 - P - 12600 is 12.2%, and CF509 - P - 12200 is 14.3% [12] - Strategy: Wait and see [16] 3.4 Related Attachments - The report provides 8 figures, including the internal - external cotton price spread under 1% tariff, cotton basis in January, May, and September, CY05 - CF05 and CY01 - CF01 spreads, and CF9 - 1 and CF5 - 9 spreads [20][21][25][27]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Peanut Daily Report, May 22, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Liu Dayong [2] - Relevant Departments: Commodity Research Institute, Agricultural Product R & D Report [1] Group 2: Data Summary Futures Market - PK504: Closing price 8236, up 26 (0.32%); Volume 15, down 31.82%; Open interest 53, down 3.64% [3] - PK510: Closing price 8372, up 20 (0.24%); Volume 64,634, up 13.66%; Open interest 128,426, up 4.93% [3] - PK601: Closing price 8250, up 10 (0.12%); Volume 492, up 45.56%; Open interest 2,721, up 2.33% [3] Spot Market - Peanut: Henan Nanyang 8400 yuan/ton, Shandong Jining 8000 yuan/ton, Shandong Linyi 8000 yuan/ton [3] - By - products: Rizhao peanut meal 3300 yuan/ton, Rizhao soybean meal 2880 yuan/ton (up 20 yuan/ton), peanut oil 15000 yuan/ton, Rizhao first - grade soybean oil 7980 yuan/ton (down 70 yuan/ton) [3][7] - Import Price: Sudanese peanuts 8250 yuan/ton [3] Spread - Peanut Inter - delivery Spread: PK01 - PK04 spread 14 (down 16), PK04 - PK10 spread - 136 (up 6), PK10 - PK01 spread 122 (up 10) [3] Group 3: Market Analysis - Price Movement: Peanut prices in Henan and Northeast China rose. Northeast Jilin Fuyu 308 common peanuts at 4.35 yuan/jin (up 0.15 yuan/jin), Liaoning Changtu at 4.4 yuan/jin (up 0.15 yuan/jin), Henan white - sand common peanuts at 4.25 - 4.4 yuan/jin (up 0.1 yuan/jin), Shandong Junan at 4.0 yuan/jin (stable) [5] - Market Forecast: Peanut spot prices are expected to be relatively strong in the short term. The downstream demand is still weak, but supply is tightening. The 10 - contract peanut's rebound space is limited due to expected increase in planting area despite weather uncertainties [5][9] Group 4: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Close long positions in 10 - contract peanuts and wait and see [10] - Spread: Go long on the 10 - 1 contract spread of peanuts on dips [11] - Options: Sell PK510 - P - 7800 [12] Group 5: Relevant Attachments - Figures: Include charts of Shandong peanut spot price, peanut oil mill's crushing profit, peanut oil price, peanut spot - futures basis, 10 - 1 contract spread, and 3 - 10 contract spread [14][18][22]

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 粕类日报 2025 年 5 月 22 日 【粕类日报】市场整体稳定 盘面继续走强 | 粕类价格日报 | | | | | | 2025/5/22 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | | | | | | 现货基差 | | | 品 种 | 合 约 | 收盘价 | 涨 跌 | 地 区 | 今 日 | 昨 日 | 涨 跌 | | 豆粕 | 0 1 | 2992 | - 6 | 天津 | 6 0 | 6 0 | 0 0 | | 0 5 | | 2716 | - 3 | 东莞 | -20 | -20 | | | 张家港 | 0 9 | 2939 | 5 | | -50 | -50 | 0 | | | | | | 日照 | -50 | -50 | 0 | | 0 1 | | 2336 | 3 | 南通 | -112 | -112 | 0 | | 菜粕 | 0 5 | 2357 | 6 | 广东 | -142 | -142 | 0 | | 0 9 | | 2562 | 1 0 | 广西 | -162 | -1 ...

五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 农产品早报 2025-05-22 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 联系人 从业资格号：F03114441 电话：028-86133280 邮箱：sxwei@wkqh.cn 王俊 组长、生鲜研究员 周三美豆震荡小幅收涨，美豆新作平衡表在贸易战缓和及产量不增情景下有偏紧趋势，阿根廷局部产量 受损及本周美豆产区降雨过多或推迟播种提供一定支撑。不过已播种区域降雨偏好限制涨幅。周三国内 豆粕现货涨跌互现 10 元/吨左右，华东低价报 2850 元/吨。据 MYSTEEL 预估 5 月大豆预计到港 919.75 万吨，6 月 1100 万吨，7 月 1050 万吨。据 MYSTEEL 预估本周大豆压榨量预计来到 220 万吨高位，国内 供应压力增大。上周港口大豆库存继续增加，同比偏高约 120 万吨，油厂豆粕库存偏低报 12 万吨左右。 杨泽元 白糖、棉花研究员 美豆产区未来两周中部降雨较多，可能对播种有所影响。巴 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及投机支撑阻力 | | --- | --- | --- | | 豆粕 | 短线反弹 | 南美大豆产量基本确定，美豆种植开启，进度远高于去年及五年均值，且未来十五 步进入累库周期。饲料企业库存偏低，存在补库需求。5 月豆粕累库速度预计较为 | | | | 天降雨充沛缺乏天气炒作，按照 CPC 月度展望来看，6 月降雨天气展望顺利。国内 | | | | 方面，国内港口及油厂大豆持续累库，随着开机率上升，豆粕供应将逐步缓解，逐 | | | | 缓和。5-7 月月均进口预估 1000 万吨以上，供应有逐步增加趋势。中美贸易缓和利 | | | | 空豆粕，但由于 23%的关税依然存在，美豆暂无性价比，对豆粕价格实际利空影响 | | | | 有限。5 月美农报告偏利多。阿根廷暴雨导致收割延迟，并存在作物产量影响，豆 | | | | 粕前日反弹，但短期空头格局依然占据主导，整体基本面偏空，看多暂以技术性反 | | | | 弹对待。主力【2890，2960】 | | 菜粕 | 短线反弹 | 截止本周最新库存数据显示，油厂菜籽菜粕库存环比调减，5 月至 7 月菜籽进口同 | | | | 比大 ...

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - The investment strategy for both soybeans and peanuts is neutral [5][6] Group 2: Core Views - The peanut market quotation continues to be firm, with prices fluctuating strongly [1] - The domestic soybean futures prices rose yesterday. The prices of domestic soybeans in various regions were stable with a slight increase. The supply - demand situation is weak on both sides, giving the soybean price a certain resilience [2][3][4] - The domestic peanut futures prices fluctuated yesterday. The peanut spot market showed a stable - to - strong trend last week, with the trading atmosphere warming up and the price center gradually moving up. The late - season growth situation remains uncertain [5] Group 3: Soybean Market Analysis Futures and Spot Data - The closing price of the bean - one 2507 contract yesterday was 4,225.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 34.00 yuan/ton or 0.81% from the previous day. The edible soybean spot basis was A07 - 65, a change of - 34 or 32.14% from the previous day [2] Market News - On Tuesday, CBOT soybean futures closed slightly higher, with the benchmark contract up 0.3%. As of the close, soybean futures rose between 1.50 and 4 cents. The July contract rose 2.25 cents to 1053 cents/bushel; the August contract rose 2.50 cents to 1050.25 cents/bushel; the November contract rose 4 cents to 1041 cents/bushel [3] Price Stability in Regions - On May 21, the prices of national standard first - class soybeans in various regions of Heilongjiang remained flat compared to the previous day [3] Price Influencing Factors - The prices of domestic soybeans in various regions were stable with a slight increase. The main reasons were the small amount of remaining grain, extremely low market inventory (less than the same period in previous years), weak downstream purchasing willingness, a significant decline in reserve auction volume, and a decrease in downstream factory purchases [4] Group 4: Peanut Market Analysis Futures and Spot Data - The closing price of the peanut 2510 contract yesterday was 8,352.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16.00 yuan/ton or - 0.19% from the previous day. The average peanut spot price was 8,420.00 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 40.00 yuan/ton or 0.48%. The spot basis was PK10 - 352.00, a month - on - month change of + 16.00 or - 4.35% [5] Market News - Currently, the quotation of Baisha common peanuts in Huangludian, Henan is 4.30 - 4.35 yuan/jin; the quotation of Haihua common peanuts in Linyi, Shandong is about 4.00 - 4.05 yuan/jin; the quotation of 308 common peanuts in Changtu, Liaoning is 4.25 - 4.30 yuan/jin; the quotation of Huayu 23 common peanuts in Xingcheng is 4.25 - 4.35 yuan/jin; the purchase price of 308 common peanuts in Jilin is 4.25 - 4.30 yuan/jin [5] Price Influencing Factors - The peanut spot market showed a stable - to - strong trend last week. Due to factors such as the bottoming - out of grassroots remaining goods and the impact of the busy farming season on the supply, the grassroots supply volume was at a low level. The new - season sowing progress was delayed due to drought, and the later growth situation remains uncertain [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the soybean meal and corn sectors is neutral [3][7] Core View - The soybean meal price is expected to be supported in the short - term due to macro - policy impacts, despite weak downstream demand and slow inventory clearance in domestic oil mills. Attention should be paid to Sino - US trade policies and the arrival of new - season Brazilian soybeans. The corn price is expected to fluctuate slightly downward in April, affected by factors such as high port inventories, high inventory in deep - processing enterprises, and sufficient substitute supply [3][7] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data (Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal) - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2509 contract was 2934 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan/ton (+1.56%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2505 contract was 2552 yuan/ton, up 42 yuan/ton (+1.67%) from the previous day. - Spot: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 2960 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it was 2860 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 2890 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. In Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2480 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton [1] - Exports: Anec raised the May export forecast of Brazilian soybeans to 14.52 million tons and Brazilian soybean meal to 236,000 tons. As of May 18, the EU's 24/25 - year - to - date imports of soybeans, soybean meal, and rapeseed were all higher than the same period last year [2] Market News and Important Data (Corn) - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2505 contract was 2324 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton (+0.52%) from the previous day; the corn starch 2505 contract was 2659 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton (+0.11%) from the previous day. - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2750 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [4][5] - Sowing Progress: As of May 18, the US corn sowing progress was 78%, ahead of the historical average, and the emergence rate was 50% [5] Market Analysis (Soybean Meal) - The monthly intended planting area report has some impact on US soybean prices, but the market focuses more on end - of - month policies. The US tariff policy and China's counter - measures have escalated Sino - US trade tensions, which will affect Sino - US soybean trade. Although Brazil's soybean harvest is good this year, the increasing import demand from other countries for Brazilian soybeans has strengthened the Brazilian premium, raising domestic import costs and supporting the domestic soybean meal price [3] Market Analysis (Corn) - Supply: The sale of on - the - ground grain has basically ended this month, and the remaining corn is mainly in the hands of traders. High inventories at north - south ports suppress the corn price. - Demand: Deep - processing enterprises have relatively high inventories, and feed enterprises mainly sign long - term contracts, with stable demand. - Policy: The tariff policy has a positive but limited impact on the market sentiment. The small price difference with wheat and the upcoming large - scale wheat harvest in June pose challenges to the corn price [6] Strategy - For soybean meal: Neutral - For corn: Neutral, with the corn price expected to fluctuate slightly downward in April [3][7]

Core Insights - Heavy rainfall in Argentina has delayed the soybean harvest, potentially impacting global soybean supply and prices [1] Group 1: Market Impact - The unusual weather conditions in Argentina may lead to fluctuations in U.S. soybean futures, indicating a possible shift in market dynamics [1] - Traders are closely monitoring these developments as they could signal a new turning point in the soybean market [1] Group 2: Supply Chain Considerations - Delays in harvesting could result in reduced availability of soybeans, affecting both domestic and international markets [1] - The situation may lead to increased volatility in soybean prices as supply constraints become more pronounced [1]