Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - In the domestic market, the inventory inflow speed of port cotton has slowed down, while the outflow speed is acceptable due to increased downstream procurement after the Spring Festival. As of February 26, the inventory at major import cotton ports was 53.81 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 0.75%. On the consumption side, Xinjiang textile enterprises have basically resumed work, the spinning operation rate has rebounded, the finished product inventory has increased, and they are mainly shipping previous orders. After the short-term positive factors are digested, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price is in a state of shock adjustment. Attention should be paid to the impact of macro news [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton's main contract closing price was 15,255 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; cotton yarn's main contract closing price was 21,100 yuan/ton, unchanged. The net position of the top 20 in cotton futures was -189,911 lots, up 1,609 lots; the net position of the top 20 in cotton yarn futures was -1,560 lots, down 163 lots. The main contract position of cotton was 778,613 lots, down 15,900 lots; the main contract position of cotton yarn was 14,509 lots, up 311 lots. The cotton warehouse receipt quantity was 11,371 sheets, up 44 sheets; the cotton yarn warehouse receipt quantity was 0 sheets, unchanged [2] Spot Market - The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) was 16,591 yuan/ton, down 42 yuan; the China Yarn Price Index for pure cotton carded yarn 32s was 21,920 yuan/ton, unchanged. The China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) was 12,529 yuan/ton, down 168 yuan; the arrival price of the imported cotton yarn price index for pure cotton carded yarn 32s was 21,810 yuan/ton, up 293 yuan. The China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM: sliding duty) was 13,688 yuan/ton, down 98 yuan; the arrival price of the imported cotton yarn price index for pure cotton combed yarn 32s was 23,381 yuan/ton, up 383 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The national cotton sowing area was 2,838.3 thousand hectares, up 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output was 6.16 million tons, up 0.54 million tons [2] Industry Situation - The cotton-yarn price difference was 5,329 yuan/ton, up 42 yuan. The industrial inventory of cotton nationwide was 861,000 tons, up 13,000 tons. The monthly import volume of cotton was 180,000 tons, up 60,000 tons; the monthly import volume of cotton yarn was 170,000 tons, up 20,000 tons. The import cotton profit was 2,903 yuan/ton, up 56 yuan. The commercial inventory of cotton nationwide was 5.7887 million tons, up 4,000 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The inventory days of yarn were 21.71 days, down 3.41 days; the inventory days of grey cloth were 33.13 days, down 0.63 days. The monthly output of cloth was 3.01 billion meters, up 0.2 billion meters; the monthly output of yarn was 2.132 million tons, up 93,000 tons. The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories was 134,124,120,000 US dollars, up 181,872,600 US dollars; the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products was 125,796,030,000 US dollars, up 303,870,000 US dollars [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at-the-money call options for cotton was 16.35%, down 1.38%; the implied volatility of at-the-money put options for cotton was 16.35%, down 1.38%. The 20-day historical volatility of cotton was 18.47%, up 0.56%; the 60-day historical volatility of cotton was 13.74%, up 0.27% [2] Industry News - As of 24:00 on March 1, 2026, the cumulative notarized inspection of cotton processed by national cotton processing enterprises in accordance with the requirements of the cotton quality inspection system reform plan was 33,138,040 bales, totaling 7,480,305 tons, a year-on-year increase of 13.58%. The cumulative notarized inspection volume of Xinjiang cotton was 7,105,688 tons, a year-on-year increase of 13.82%. Among them, the inspection quantity of saw-toothed fine staple cotton was 32,966,595 bales, the inspection quantity of roller fine staple cotton was 1,980 bales, and the inspection quantity of long-staple cotton was 151,640 bales. The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) cotton futures fell more than 1% on Monday. The escalation of the Middle East tension prompted the market to take broader risk-averse measures, and the stronger US dollar further put pressure on the market. The ICE May cotton futures contract closed down 1.02 cents, or 1.55%, at 64.59 cents per pound [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints The report provides a comprehensive overview of the Chinese futures market in February 2026, covering key events, price changes, trading volume, and other aspects of different types of futures, including financial, metal, energy & chemicals, agricultural products, and indices futures [10][25][30]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Overview 3.1.1 News of the Month - **Global**: The US and Israel launched a joint strike on Iran, killing Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei; the Strait of Hormuz was closed; Trump is likely to visit China from March 31 to April 2 [10]. - **US**: The US Supreme Court rejected Trump's IEEPA tariffs, and the White House imposed a 10% import duty on all goods entering the US for 150 days [14]. - **China**: Putin may visit China in the first half of 2026; China will impose zero tariffs on all imports from 53 African countries with diplomatic ties; German Chancellor Merz made his first official visit to China; China suspended additional tariffs on certain Canadian goods [17]. - **Industry**: Zimbabwe banned lithium ore exports; Indonesia is studying an export ban on tin and other raw materials; Myanmar tensions raised tin supply concerns [20]. 3.1.2 Price Change - **Financial Futures**: In February 2026, equity index futures rose, with IC increasing by 3.4% and IH decreasing by 0.9%; CGB futures also rose, with TL and TF increasing by 0.1% [25]. - **Commodity Futures**: Slightly more commodities fell. The top 3 gainers were Lithium Carbonate (18.8%), Tin (10.8%), and Egg (8.8%); the top 3 losers were Silver (17.6%), Methanol (6.1%), and LLDPE (5.9%) [30]. - **Metals**: Slightly more metal futures fell. The top 3 gainers were Lithium Carbonate (18.8%), Tin (10.8%), and Manganese Silicon (2.6%); the top 3 losers were Silver (17.6%), Iron Ore (5.2%), and Silicon Metal (5.1%) [33]. - **Energy & Chemicals**: Most energy and chemical futures fell. The top 3 gainers were Sodium Hydroxide (7.6%), LSFO (7.2%), and LPG (5.3%); the top 3 losers were Methanol (6.1%), LLDPE (5.9%), and Ethylene Glycol (5.4%) [37]. - **Agricultural Products**: Most agricultural futures rose. The top 3 gainers were Egg (8.8%), No.1 Soybean (7.4%), and Corn Starch (5.8%); the top 3 losers were Synthetic Rubber (5.7%), RBD Palm Olein (5.0%), and Peanut Kernel (2.1%) [41]. 3.1.3 Trading Volume - **Initial Margin**: On February 27, 2026, compared with January 30, 2026, initial margin outflow occurred in Metal (-0.2%), Equity Index (-12.2%), and Interest Rates (-4.0%); initial margin inflow occurred in Energy & Chemicals (7.8%), Indices (12.3%), and Agricultural Products (3.7%) [46]. - **Volume**: In February, the volume of China's futures market reached 398.44 million lots, with a -14.6% year-on-year growth [51]. - **Turnover**: In February, the turnover of China's futures market reached 553,348.31 billion yuan, with a 7.5% year-on-year growth [55]. - **Future Exchanges**: Different futures exchanges had varying changes in trading volume and turnover year-on-year [57]. - **Futures Share**: Detailed information on the volume, turnover, and cumulative turnover share of different futures varieties was provided [60][62]. 3.2 Financial Futures 3.2.1 Equity Index Futures - In February 2026, CSI 500 and CSI 1000 increased by 3.4% and 3.3% respectively, while SSE 50 decreased by 0.9% [65]. 3.2.2 Interest Rates Futures - In February 2026, 2-Year CGB, 5-Year CGB, 10-Year CGB, and 30-Year CGB all increased by 0.1% [69]. 3.3 Metal Futures 3.3.1 Precious Metals Futures - In February 2026, Gold decreased by 1.2%, Silver decreased by 17.6%, Palladium increased by 0.2%, and Platinum decreased by 1.1% [74]. 3.3.2 Nonferrous Metals Futures - In February 2026, Tin increased by 10.8%, while Zinc decreased by 4.4% [78]. 3.3.3 Ferrous Metals Futures - In February 2026, Manganese Silicon increased by 2.6%, while Iron Ore decreased by 5.2% [82]. 3.3.4 Novel Materials Futures - In February 2026, Lithium Carbonate increased by 18.8%, while Silicon Metal decreased by 5.1% [87]. 3.4 Energy & Chemicals 3.4.1 Oil & Gas Futures - In February 2026, Crude Oil increased by 3.7%, while Bitumen decreased by 2.3% [93]. 3.4.2 Olefins Futures - In February 2026, Propylene decreased by 0.3%, while LLDPE decreased by 5.9% [97]. 3.4.3 Aromatics Futures - In February 2026, Benzene decreased by 0.6%, while Paraxylene decreased by 0.1% [103]. 3.4.4 Organics Futures - In February 2026, Methanol decreased by 6.1%, while Urea increased by 3.2% [106]. 3.4.5 Inorganics Futures - In February 2026, Soda Ash decreased by 0.8%, while Sodium Hydroxide increased by 7.6% [110]. 3.4.6 Coals Futures - In February 2026, Coking Coal decreased by 5.4%, while Coke decreased by 5.0% [113]. 3.5 Agricultural Products 3.5.1 Oil Crops Futures - In February 2026, No.1 Soybean increased by 7.4%, while RBD Palm Olein decreased by 5.0% [119]. 3.5.2 Grains Futures - In February 2026, Corn increased by 3.9%, while Corn Starch increased by 5.8% [128]. 3.5.3 Rubber & Woods Futures - In February 2026, Natural Rubber increased by 4.9%, while Synthetic Rubber decreased by 5.7% [132]. 3.5.4 Animals Futures - In February 2026, Egg increased by 8.8%, while Live Hog increased by 2.4% [136]. 3.5.5 Economic Crops Futures - In February 2026, Cotton increased by 4.9%, while Peanut Kernel decreased by 2.1% [140]. 3.6 Indices Futures - In February 2026, SCFIS(Europe) decreased by 0.2% [146].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Carbonate Lithium, Fuel Oil, LPG, PTA, 2-Butene [1] - **Bearish**: None - **Neutral (Oscillating)**: Stock Index, Treasury Bonds, Copper, Aluminum, Alumina, Zinc, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Precious Metals, Platinum, Palladium, Industrial Silicon, Threaded Steel, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Manganese Silicon, Ferrosilicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Coking Coal, Coke, Vegetable Oil, Soybean Oil, Rapeseed Oil, Cotton, White Sugar, Corn, Soybean Meal, Coniferous Pulp, Logs, Live Pigs, Bitumen, BR Rubber, Styrene, Urea, Methanol, PVC, Caustic Soda, Container Shipping on the European Line [1] - **Wait-and-See**: Polysilicon, Threaded Steel, Hot Rolled Coil [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short term, attention should be paid to the evolution of the Middle East conflict. If the conflict ends quickly, the market sentiment will recover rapidly after the shock adjustment of the stock index, and an upward trend will be opened. The approaching of China's "Two Sessions" provides support for the stock index. If the Middle East situation does not deteriorate further, the short - term adjustment of the stock index will bring a good long - position layout opportunity [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has indicated interest - rate risks in the short term, and attention should be paid to the interest - rate decision of the Bank of Japan [1]. - Overseas macro factors are favorable for copper prices, but the continuous accumulation of global copper inventories suppresses prices. The supply of electrolytic aluminum is disturbed, and the domestic alumina production capacity is decreasing, but the inventory is increasing. The supply of zinc ore from Iran is a concern, and the supply of nickel ore in Indonesia is tight. The prices of these metals are expected to oscillate in the short term [1]. - Geopolitical conflicts support the prices of precious metals, but rising oil prices increase inflation risks and weaken the expectation of interest - rate cuts. Once the geopolitical situation eases, precious metal prices may decline. Platinum and palladium are expected to enter a range - bound oscillation after rising [1]. - For industrial silicon, the production in the northwest is increasing while that in the southwest is decreasing. The production of polysilicon and organic silicon in December is decreasing. The demand for carbonate lithium is strong, but the spot market has not fully recovered [1]. - The black - metal market is in a slack season before the "Two Sessions", and the market is looking forward to the peak season after the "Two Sessions". In the long term, the market is pessimistic about coking coal 05 [1]. - The rise in crude oil prices is expected to drive up vegetable oil prices in the short term, but the supply of raw materials may increase in the medium term [1]. - The cotton market is currently supported but lacks driving forces. The global white - sugar market is in surplus, and the domestic new - crop supply is increasing. The corn market is supported by replenishment demand but needs to be cautious about high - price feedback. The soybean - meal market is expected to oscillate within a range [1]. - The prices of fuel oil and LPG are affected by the Middle East situation. The prices of various energy - chemical products are affected by geopolitical factors, supply - demand relationships, and cost factors [1]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Macro Finance - **Stock Index**: Short - term oscillation adjustment space is limited. If the Middle East situation does not worsen, the short - term adjustment brings a long - position layout opportunity [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial, but there are short - term interest - rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Overseas macro factors are favorable, but inventory accumulation suppresses prices, and short - term oscillation is expected [1]. - **Aluminum**: Supply is disturbed, and the price oscillates [1]. - **Alumina**: Domestic production capacity is decreasing, but inventory is increasing, and short - term oscillation is expected [1]. - **Zinc**: The supply of Iranian zinc ore is a concern, which may boost the price in the short term. Attention should be paid to downstream resumption of work after the festival [1]. - **Nickel**: Supply in Indonesia is tight, and the price may oscillate at a high level in the short term. In the long term, high global inventory may have a suppressing effect. It is recommended to go long at low prices [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: Raw material prices have risen after the festival, and the supply side in Indonesia is frequently disturbed. The futures price oscillates strongly. Attention should be paid to post - festival demand recovery, and it is recommended to go long in the short term [1]. - **Tin**: The Middle East situation is favorable, and the price is expected to continue to strengthen. Attention should be paid to risk management in the short - term high - volatility situation [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - **Precious Metals**: Geopolitical conflicts support prices, but rising oil prices increase inflation risks. Once the situation eases, prices may decline. Short - term oscillation is expected [1]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: Geopolitical factors are favorable, but the strong US dollar and mixed fundamentals lead to a range - bound oscillation after the price increase [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Production in the northwest is increasing, while that in the southwest is decreasing. The production of polysilicon and organic silicon in December is decreasing [1]. - **Polysilicon**: It is recommended to wait and see due to liquidity risks [1]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: Demand is strong, but the spot market has not fully recovered. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. Ferrous Metals - **Threaded Steel and Hot Rolled Coil**: The spot market has not fully recovered. It is recommended to wait and see, and look for profit - taking opportunities for the basis positions [1]. - **Iron Ore**: There is obvious upward pressure, and it is not recommended to chase the rise [1]. - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon**: Short - term supply and demand are weak, but policy support and cost factors are favorable [1]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Short - term supply and demand are weak, and the supply is expected to decrease. Soda ash follows glass, and the medium - term supply is more abundant, putting pressure on prices [1]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The market is in a slack season before the "Two Sessions", and the market is looking forward to the peak season after the "Two Sessions". In the long term, the market is pessimistic about coking coal 05. It is recommended to establish long - short arbitrage positions [1]. Agricultural Products - **Vegetable Oil, Soybean Oil, and Rapeseed Oil**: The rise in crude oil prices is expected to drive up prices in the short term, but the supply of raw materials may increase in the medium term. It is recommended to be bullish in the short term and wait and see in the medium term [1]. - **Cotton**: The market is supported but lacks driving forces. Attention should be paid to relevant policies, planting intentions, and seasonal demand [1]. - **White Sugar**: The global market is in surplus, and the domestic new - crop supply is increasing. The short - term fundamentals lack continuous driving forces, and attention should be paid to the capital situation [1]. - **Corn**: The supply pressure is limited, and the demand for replenishment supports the price, but attention should be paid to the negative feedback of high prices [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: The market has rebounded, but the rebound is limited under the pressure of large global supply. It is expected to oscillate within a range [1]. - **Coniferous Pulp**: It is expected to oscillate between 5200 - 5400 in the short term, and attention should be paid to post - festival port inventory [1]. - **Logs**: The spot price has risen, and the arrival volume in February has decreased. The price has an upward driving force [1]. - **Live Pigs**: The spot price is stable, and the production capacity needs to be further released [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Fuel Oil**: Affected by the Middle East situation, the market sentiment is bullish [1]. - **Bitumen**: The cost is supported, the market sentiment is positive, and the downstream demand is gradually recovering [1]. - **BR Rubber**: Affected by the Middle East situation, the short - term price is expected to oscillate widely, and there is an upward expectation in the long term [1]. - **PTA**: The supply is expected to tighten in the future, and the price is expected to rise [1]. - **2 - Butene**: Affected by the Middle East situation, the price is expected to rise [1]. - **Styrene**: The production economy is stable, and the demand is expected to recover gradually [1]. - **Urea**: The export sentiment has eased, and the upward space is limited, but there is support at the bottom [1]. - **Methanol**: The import is expected to decrease, but the downstream feedback is obvious, and the situation is mixed [1]. - **PVC**: The future is expected to be optimistic, but the current fundamentals are poor [1]. - **Caustic Soda**: The fundamentals are weak, but the price has a small increase [1]. - **LPG**: Affected by the Middle East situation, the price is strong, but the demand is short - term bearish, and the internal and external markets show different trends [1]. Others - **Container Shipping on the European Line**: The price increase is generally stable, and shipping companies are cautious about resuming flights. They have a strong willingness to stop the decline and raise prices after the off - season in March [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content. 2. Core View -受中东战事冲击,昨日股指低开下行,沪深300和上证50在资金护盘下收涨,中小盘表现较弱,中证1000收跌。短期内关注中东战事演变,若战事快速了结,市场情绪有望快速恢复。国内“两会”临近,增量政策与维稳预期对股指形成支撑,预计股指短期震荡调整空间有限。若中东局势未进一步恶化,股指短期调整将带来较好的多头布局机会 [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Money Market and Liquidity - **Interest Rates**: DRO01 closed at 1.31% with a -0.72bp change, DR007 at 1.46% with a -3.94bp change, GC001 at 1.08% with a -51.00bp change, GC007 at 1.46% with a -10.50bp change, SHBOR 3M at 1.57% with a -0.01bp change, LPR 5 - year at 3.50% with no change, 1 - year treasury at 1.28% with a -1.00bp change, 5 - year treasury at 1.52% with a -4.90bp change, 10 - year treasury at 1.74% with a -8.80bp change, and 10 - year US treasury at 3.97% with a -5.00bp change [4] - **Central Bank Operations**: The central bank conducted 19 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations yesterday with an operating rate of 1.40%. There were no reverse repurchase maturities, resulting in a single - day net injection of 19 billion yuan. This week (March 1st - 6th), there will be 1525 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturities in the central bank's open market, and 1 trillion yuan of 91 - day repurchase maturities on March 6th [4] Stock Market - **Index Performance**: The CSI 300 rose 0.38% to 4728.7, the SSE 50 rose 0.23% to 3046.5, the CSI 500 fell 0% to 8658.3, and the CSI 1000 fell 0.98% to 8477. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets reached 3.04 trillion yuan, a significant increase of 539.8 billion yuan from the previous trading day. Industry sectors had more decliners than gainers, with precious metals, petroleum and petrochemicals, aerospace equipment, ground military equipment, and shipping ports leading the gains, and advertising and marketing, film and television theaters, media, communication services, and games leading the losses [4] - **Futures Contracts**: IF volume increased by 57.0% to 128,808, IF open interest increased by 4.8% to 287,543; IH volume increased by 44.3% to 61,134, IH open interest increased by 4.4% to 112,864; IC volume increased by 37.9% to 178,806, IC open interest increased by 4.0% to 311,621; IM volume increased by 45.0% to 225,976, and IM open interest increased by 4.8% to 382,995 [4] Futures Premium and Discount - **IF Premium/Discount**: The premium/discount rates for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts are 7.49%, 4.37%, 4.49%, and 4.93% respectively [4] - **IH Premium/Discount**: The premium/discount rates for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts are 0.44%, 0.69%, 0.89%, and 2.59% respectively [4] - **IC Premium/Discount**: The premium/discount rates for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts are 7.34%, 5.07%, 6.05%, and 6.48% respectively [4] - **IM Premium/Discount**: The premium/discount rates for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts are 12.72%, 9.06%, 9.73%, and 9.64% respectively [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - On March 2, platinum and palladium prices retreated from highs and remained high. The PT2606 contract closed up 2.06% to CNY 626.5 per gram, and the PD2606 contract closed up 1.0% to CNY 463.65 per gram [4]. - Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East over the weekend drove up precious - metal prices, providing support for platinum and palladium. However, the risk - asset decline, rising oil prices, and a stronger US dollar due to the US - Iran conflict may put some pressure on platinum and palladium prices. Fundamentals show a supply gap and tight spot market, but Trump's new tariff exemption for key minerals creates a mixed fundamental situation [4]. - In the short term, platinum and palladium are expected to remain strong but volatile. Investors are advised to buy on dips [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Price - Platinum futures主力 closing price: CNY 626.5, up 0.44% from the previous value [4]. - Spot platinum (99.95%): CNY 603, down 0.99% [4]. - Platinum basis (spot - futures): - CNY 23.5, up 59.32% [4]. - Palladium futures主力 closing price: CNY 463.65, down 0.26% [4]. - Spot palladium (99.95%): CNY 455, unchanged [4]. - Palladium basis (spot - futures): - CNY 8.65, down 12.18% [4]. International Price (15:00) - London spot platinum: USD 2389.7, down 0.31% [4]. - London spot palladium: USD 1823.741, down 0.83% [4]. - NYMEX platinum: USD 2402.5, down 0.34% [4]. - NYMEX palladium: USD 1864, down 0.32% [4]. Internal - External Price Difference (15:00, CNY/g) - USD/CNY central parity rate: 6.9236, up 0.01% [4]. - Guangzhou platinum - London platinum: CNY 25.40, up 21.75% [4]. - Guangzhou platinum - NYMEX platinum: CNY 22.18, up 27.01% [4]. - Guangzhou palladium - London palladium: CNY 4.91, up 111.04% [4]. - Guangzhou palladium - NYMEX palladium: - CNY 5.21, down 4.66% [4]. Platinum - Palladium Price Ratio - Guangzhou Futures Exchange platinum/palladium price ratio: 1.3512, up 0.0094 [4]. - London spot platinum/palladium price ratio: 1.3103, up 0.0069 [4]. Inventory (Troy Ounces) - NYMEX platinum inventory: 202181, up 8.54% [4]. - NYMEX palladium inventory: 588066, up 1.79% [4]. Position - NYMEX total platinum position: 72351, up 4.42% [4]. - NYMEX non - commercial net long platinum position: 13240, up 7.23% [4]. - NYMEX total palladium position: 16423, down 2.18% [4]. - NYMEX non - commercial net long palladium position: 664, up 34.96% [4].

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2026年03月03日 (原油) 3月2日深夜，伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队司令顾问表示霍尔木兹海峡已被关闭，伊方将打击所有试图从霍 尔木兹海峡通过的船只。继2025年6月伊以12日战争后上周末中东再燃战火,地区局势由此前对特 迅速升级为全面军事对抗。在伊朗采取的众多反击措施中，关于伊朗宣布禁止任何船只通过霍尔木 兹海峡这一消息传出后引起市场关于中东产油国原油供应中断的恐慌情绪。在美以与伊朗军事对抗 持续、霍尔木兹海峡恢复通航之前，地缘风险将对原油价格形成持续支撑。 (责金属) 隔夜贵金属冲高回落，盘中波动较大。美伊战局激烈，特朗普表示如果有必要不排除向伊朗派遣美 国地面部队的可能性，伊朗方面称已为长期战争做好准备。短期避险情绪将持续摇摆，后续走势仍 需看战争是否向更大烈度扩张。数据方面美国公布2月1SM制造业PM152.4强于预期，市场等待本周 非农等重要数据发布。 【铜】 隔夜伦铜走低,尽管美欧2月制造业PMI在荣枯线上方,但伊朗军事冲突抬高能源价格增大经济增长 风险,且美元相对主要能源进口地区货币短线强势,拖累铜价。目前均线密集区继续尝试提供韧 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2026-03-03原油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 原油2604： 1.基本面：美国和以色列对伊朗的空袭战事周一进一步扩大，且没有结束迹象，作为对真主党发动袭击的回 应，以色列打击了黎巴嫩，与此同时，德黑兰继续用导弹和无人机攻击海湾国家；随着伊朗冲突不断升级， 海湾地区船舶的战争风险保险被取消，航运业遭受冲击，伊朗与阿曼之间的霍尔木兹海峡承载着全球约五分 之一的石油及天然气运输，目前航运已近乎停滞；白宫拒绝排除地面战选项。伊朗方面强硬回击，誓言不会 让石油流出该地区；偏多 2.基差：3月2日，阿曼原油现货价为81.29美元/桶，卡塔尔海洋原油现货价为80.44美元/桶，基 ...

国债期货日报 | 2026-03-03 地缘冲突升温，国债期货全线收涨 市场分析 宏观面：（1）宏观政策： 12月8日政治局会议明确实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，释放宽货币 信号；中央经济工作会议提出，2026年财政政策方面继续实施更加积极的财政政策，货币方面继续实施适度宽松 的货币政策，灵活高效运用降准、降息及结构性政策工具，为"十五五"良好开局提供稳定的宏观政策环境；2026 年1月19日起，下调再贷款、再贴现等一篮子利率0.25个百分点，同时今年还存在继续降准降息的空间。（2）通胀： 1月CPI同比上升0.2%。 财政：（3）财政：2025年全年财政收支整体未达预期，收入受税收走弱与非税高基数拖累，全年一般公共预算收 入同比下降1.7%；支出节奏前置，年末力度减弱，全年完成度偏低。结构上呈现分化特征，民生支出总体稳定， 基建类支出占比下降，土地财政收入持续疲软。展望2026年，财政政策预计延续积极，强调"总量增加、结构更优"， 支出力度有望加强，节奏继续前置，对稳增长形成支撑。（4）金融：1月社融实现开门红，新增规模达7.22万亿元， 同比多增1662亿元，政府债券净融资回升，财政靠前发力 ...

流动性日报 | 2026-03-03 市场流动性概况 2026-03-02，股指板块成交9187.79亿元，较上一交易日变动+44.24%；持仓金额16747.02亿元，较上一交易日变动 +4.09%；成交持仓比为54.31%。 国债板块成交2920.74亿元，较上一交易日变动-2.11%；持仓金额8447.97亿元，较上一交易日变动+1.02%；成交持 仓比为34.17%。 基本金属板块成交8078.99亿元，较上一交易日变动+9.47%；持仓金额7137.59亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.45%；成 交持仓比为103.41%。 贵金属板块成交9871.85亿元，较上一交易日变动+56.48%；持仓金额5521.99亿元，较上一交易日变动+5.83%；成 交持仓比为210.48%。 能源化工板块成交9072.62亿元，较上一交易日变动+85.27%；持仓金额5254.45亿元，较上一交易日变动+7.60%； 成交持仓比为157.09%。 农产品板块成交3484.33亿元，较上一交易日变动+26.18%；持仓金额6351.67亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.47%；成 交持仓比为50.86%。 黑色建材板块成交21 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract of Douyi 2605 reached a new high after the Spring Festival and then pulled back. The spot price continued to rise, and the basis strengthened. The main contract of Doupo 2605 rebounded after the Spring Festival. The spot price of Doupo declined, and the basis weakened [4]. - High - priced domestic soybeans have sluggish sales, and Douyi may adjust at a high level. There are doubts about China's subsequent purchase of US soybeans. South American soybeans will be on the market with price advantages. Domestic port soybean inventories are rising, and there is no auction for now. The oil mill's startup rate has not recovered, and Doupo inventories continue to decline, so Doupo will have a phased rebound [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - The main contract of Douyi 2605 reached a high of 4794 after the Spring Festival and then pulled back. The spot price of rich - brocade soybeans rose from 4440 yuan/ton to around 4560 yuan/ton. The basis of Douyi strengthened, and the futures price was at a premium. The main contract of Doupo 2605 rebounded after the Spring Festival. The spot price of Zhangjiagang 43 - protein Doupo fell from 3060 yuan/ton to around 3010 yuan/ton. The basis of Doupo weakened, and the futures price discount decreased [4]. 3.2 Domestic Soybean Situation - As of February 27, the remaining grain ratio of soybeans in Heilongjiang was 39%, in Anhui was 45%, in Henan was 49%, and in Shandong was 50%, all remaining unchanged from the previous week. High - priced soybeans have sluggish sales, and the remaining grain in the whole country is much higher than the same period last year. There is no state - reserve soybean auction for now [4]. 3.3 Import and Supply Situation - There are doubts about China's subsequent purchase of US soybeans. The US Supreme Court ruled that special tariffs are illegal, and the US has counter - imposed a 15% global tariff. There is high uncertainty in trade negotiations as the US may visit China at the end of March to early April. Currently, the cost of US soybeans is not competitive compared to South American soybeans, and Brazilian soybeans are on the market. There is no import soybean auction recently. The arrival of soybeans at oil mills is gradually recovering, and port soybean inventories have stopped falling and started to rise. As of February 27, the arrival of soybeans at oil mills was 1.339 million tons, and port soybean inventories were 6.3 million tons, both rising from the previous week [4]. 3.4 US Soybean Situation - The US Agricultural Outlook Forum expects the new - season planting area of US soybeans to increase to 85 million acres (a year - on - year increase of 4.7%). The conflict between the US and Iran has affected agricultural products due to the strong crude oil market. The strong US soybean oil has boosted US soybeans, and the rising fertilizer prices may increase planting costs and be transmitted to agricultural products [5]. 3.5 Oil Mill Situation - As of February 27, the startup rate of oil mills was 16.19%, rising from the previous week but still not fully recovered. The soybean inventory of oil mills was 5.967 million tons, rising from the previous week. The output of Doupo was 465,000 tons; the Doupo inventory of oil mills was 701,200 tons, continuing to decline from the previous week; the unexecuted contracts of Doupo were 2.9152 million tons, also continuing to decline. The inventory days of Doupo in feed mills were 9.89 days, down from the pre - Spring Festival high [5]. 3.6 Feed Demand Situation - In the breeding industry, the pig price is low, and breeding may fall into full - scale losses again. As of February 27, the breeding profit of purchased piglets was 20.83 yuan per head, close to losses; the self - breeding and self - raising profit was - 159.65 yuan per head, with losses increasing. In December, the national inventory of breeding sows was 39.61 million, continuing to decrease; the national pig inventory was 429.67 million, with a year - on - year increase of only 0.5% and a month - on - month decrease for the first time in recent years. In January, the inventory of breeding sows in large - scale farms increased slightly, and the culling rate decreased significantly; the output of piglets increased, but the sales volume decreased; the inventory of commercial pigs decreased again month - on - month. In the poultry industry, the egg price has fallen, and breeding has suffered losses again. In January, the sales volume of chicken chicks continued to increase, and the culling of old chickens remained at a high level. In January, the inventory of laying hens decreased again month - on - month but was still at a high level. Due to losses, breeding enterprises may be cautious about restocking again. The current high inventory still supports feed demand, but losses may lead to further capacity reduction, which is unfavorable for the long - term growth of feed demand [6]. 3.7 Market Outlook - High - priced domestic soybeans have sluggish sales, and can be supplemented through auctions and imports, so Douyi may adjust at a high level. There are doubts about China's subsequent purchase of US soybeans. South American soybeans will be on the market with price advantages. Domestic port soybean inventories are rising, there is no auction for now, the oil mill's startup rate has not recovered, and Doupo inventories continue to decline. Doupo will have a phased rebound [6].