Core Viewpoint - China Everbright Bank (601818) has issued a notice regarding increased volatility in domestic and international precious metal prices, highlighting the need for heightened market risk awareness and prudent investment practices [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - Recent fluctuations in precious metal prices have intensified, leading to an increase in market risk [1] - The bank emphasizes the importance of monitoring market changes and adjusting investment strategies accordingly [1] Group 2: Risk Management - Investors are advised to enhance their risk prevention awareness in precious metal business [1] - The bank recommends reasonable control of positions and timely monitoring of holdings and margin balance changes [1] - A call for rational investment practices to safeguard personal financial security is made [1]

2026年1月16日，中国建设银行（601939）发布公告称，为提供更加优质高效的服务，中国建设银行将 于1月16日22:00至1月17日6:00进行系统升级维护，期间个人手机银行、个人网银、微信银行等平台可 能存在交易不稳定的情况。 请您根据自身需要，提前做好相应安排。中国建设银行对由此给您带来的不便深表歉意，并将努力缩短 影响服务的时间。感谢您长期以来给予中国建设银行的大力支持！ ...

Group 1: Economic and Legislative Developments - The U.S. Senate passed a "mini omnibus" spending bill with an overwhelming majority of 82 votes in favor and 15 against, covering key departments such as the Department of Justice, Department of Interior, Department of Commerce, Department of Energy, and others, ensuring operations continue until the end of the fiscal year [2] - Another spending bill covering the Department of Treasury and the State Department has passed the House and will be submitted for Senate review after the upcoming recess, indicating a preliminary bipartisan consensus on funding distribution [2] - Over 75% of discretionary funding remains unresolved, including budgets for the Pentagon and several large non-defense projects, which may require temporary measures to maintain operations beyond January 30 if remaining appropriations are not completed [2][3] Group 2: Defense and Domestic Policy Negotiations - The next two weeks are critical for both chambers as complex funding bills are under intense negotiation, with the Department of Homeland Security funding bill facing significant challenges [3] - The House is operating under a slim Republican majority, with Speaker Johnson addressing attendance issues and internal party dissent, particularly regarding specific project funding disputes [3] - The recently passed bill has resisted attempts for significant cuts from hardliners and rejected drastic reductions proposed by the White House, opting for more moderate adjustments [3] Group 3: Gold Market Analysis - The paper gold market is currently experiencing a volatile yet slightly bullish trend, with prices trading above short-term moving averages [4] - The MACD indicator shows a bullish crossover, suggesting short-term bullish sentiment, although the RSI is approaching overbought territory, indicating potential for a pullback [4] - Key support and resistance levels are identified at 450 CNY/gram and 460 CNY/gram, respectively, with a breakout above resistance potentially opening up upward movement [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the banking industry [1] Core Insights - The banking sector is experiencing a marginal recovery in medium to long-term loans, with a focus on the effectiveness of policy measures being released [1] - Social financing (社融) has shown a year-on-year decrease, with a month-on-month decline in growth rate. In December, new social financing amounted to 2.21 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 645.7 billion yuan [5] - The growth of RMB loans and corporate bonds has made a significant positive contribution to social financing increment, with RMB loans increasing by 975.7 billion yuan in December, a year-on-year increase of 135.5 billion yuan [5] - Corporate loans have shown a notable increase, with a total increase of 1.1 trillion yuan in December, a year-on-year increase of 580 billion yuan, indicating a marginal recovery in financing demand from the real economy [5] - The M2 growth rate has risen, with M1 and M2 increasing by 3.8% and 8.5% year-on-year, respectively [5] - The report suggests that the government bond's contribution to social financing has weakened towards the end of the year, while RMB credit shows signs of marginal improvement, primarily supported by corporate loans [5] Summary by Sections Social Financing - In December, the total social financing stock increased by 8.3% year-on-year, with a month-on-month decline of 0.2 percentage points [5] - The structure of corporate loans has improved, with medium to long-term loans increasing by 330 billion yuan and short-term loans by 370 billion yuan [5] Loan Data - As of the end of December, the balance of RMB loans from financial institutions increased by 6.4% year-on-year, remaining stable compared to the previous month [5] - The demand for loans from the household sector remains weak, with a decrease of 916 billion yuan in December, a year-on-year decrease of 4.416 trillion yuan [5] Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the continued attractiveness of the banking sector's dividend value, recommending specific banks such as Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China, and others [5]

1月16日金融一线消息，广西金融监管局发布关于柳州银行变更股权的批复，同意广西国控资本运营集 团有限责任公司受让柳州市财政局持有的柳州银行91390万股股份、柳州东通投资发展有限公司持有的 48700万股股份、广西柳州市东城投资开发集团有限公司持有的38700万股股份、柳州市龙建投资发展有 限责任公司持有的30700万股股份、广西柳州市建设投资开发有限责任公司持有的23300万股股份、柳州 市温馨房地产开发有限责任公司持有的22000万股股份、柳州市城市投资建设发展有限公司持有的20000 万股股份、广西柳州市投资控股集团有限公司持有的14800万股股份、广西柳州市农业基础设施投资建 设集团有限公司持有的10743.93万股股份、柳州市房地产开发有限责任公司持有的8000万股股份、柳北 区财政局持有的19.99万股股份，合计308，353.92万股股份。 受让后，柳州市财政局、柳州东通投资发展有限公司、柳州市温馨房地产开发有限责任公司、广西柳州 市投资控股集团有限公司、广西柳州市农业基础设施投资建设集团有限公司、柳州市房地产开发有限责 任公司、柳北区财政局不再持有柳州银行股份，广西国控资本运营集团有限责任公司 ...

在华尔街与华盛顿的权力走廊中，有关杰米·戴蒙(Jamie Dimon)出任财政部长甚至竞选总统的猜测屡见 不鲜。然而，这位摩根大通集团长期掌门人，却为"担任美联储主席"这一可能性划下明确界限。 周四，戴蒙在美国商会活动上回应相关提问时直言："美联储主席这个职位，我将其归为'绝对、百分之 百、绝无可能、绝无机会、无论任何理由'的范畴。"至于财政部长一职，他则表示"会接那个电话"，暗 示持开放态度。 摘要今日周五(1月16日)亚盘时段，现货黄金最新报价为1030.58元/克，较前一交易日下跌3.41元，跌幅 0.33%，日内呈现震荡下行走势。当日开盘价报1034.13元/克，盘中最高触及1035.04元/克，最低下探至 1029.06元/克。 今日周五(1月16日)亚盘时段，现货黄金最新报价为1030.58元/克，较前一交易日下跌3.41元，跌幅 0.33%，日内呈现震荡下行走势。当日开盘价报1034.13元/克，盘中最高触及1035.04元/克，最低下探至 1029.06元/克。 【要闻速递】 作为执掌摩根大通20年的金融巨头，戴蒙被视为跨党派潜在要职人选。他明确表示希望至少留任五年， 称"热爱所做之事，只要精 ...

来源：台州晚报 "女士您好，请问您办理银行卡主要是什么用途呢？"1月3日下午，建设银行天台丰泽支行大堂内，大堂 经理一次看似普通的服务询问，却揭开了一场诈骗拦截行动的序幕。 这张"现金支票"金额不小，乍一看挺正规。经仔细核验，大堂经理发现该"支票"在格式、印章及关键要 素上均存在明显异常，属于伪造票据。 此时，大堂经理意识到，丁女士可能陷入了一起电信诈骗。他没有直接否定丁女士，而是将她引至休息 区，耐心开展解释与劝阻。 "阿姨，您先别急，这类所谓的'扶贫款'我们最近有所了解。"他从诈骗分子常用话术入手，结合票据上 的漏洞，逐步说明对方后续很可能以"缴纳税费""激活账户"等名义诱导转账。"真正的国家扶贫资金发 放，都有严格、公开的程序，不会要求您事先办卡或支付任何费用，更不会邮寄这种来路不明的'支 票'。" 据了解，此类诈骗多通过假冒的"人民数贸APP"等平台实施，网站服务器设在境外，却假借国家政策名 义，邮寄伪造的票据，极具欺骗性。诈骗分子主要针对信息获取渠道有限、对政策了解不足的中老年 人，以"零成本、高回报"为诱饵，逐步获取个人信息，甚至诱使其参与非法资金转移。 建设银行天台支行相关负责人提醒：天上不会掉 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the cyclical sectors and anticipates a strong growth trajectory for the S&P 500 index, targeting a level of 7,600 points by 2026 with a total return rate of 12% [1][3]. Core Insights - The S&P 500 index is expected to achieve a total return of 18% in 2025, driven primarily by earnings growth, with a projected 12% earnings growth leading to an EPS target of $305 [3]. - The report highlights the importance of healthy economic fundamentals, strong profitability of large-cap stocks, and the incremental profits from AI applications as key drivers of market performance [1][3]. - Despite high current market valuations, the report argues that high-profitability stocks deserve higher valuations, and there are no significant signs of speculative bubbles [1][4]. Summary by Sections Economic Outlook - The U.S. economy is projected to grow at nearly 3% this year, with a slight slowdown expected in the second half of the year [3][6]. - The report emphasizes that while there may be fluctuations due to interest rate changes, the overall economic cycle is unlikely to end soon [5][6]. Market Valuation - Current market valuations are high, but the report suggests that this is not a barrier to future performance, as high-profitability stocks are justified in their valuations [4][7]. - The concentration risk in the market is deemed manageable, with the top ten stocks accounting for 31% of earnings, and their valuations, while above average, remain below historical peaks [7]. Sector Recommendations - The cyclical sectors are expected to benefit from favorable economic conditions, with particular attention on the middle-income consumer segment and non-residential construction [1][8]. - The report suggests that healthcare and consumer staples are undervalued and recommends allocating defensive assets to balance risk [2][11]. AI and Capital Expenditure - AI-related transactions are anticipated to continue evolving, with significant capital expenditures expected to rise to approximately $540 billion in 2026, despite a slowdown in growth rate [9][10]. - The report categorizes AI-related investments into four stages, highlighting the potential for differentiation among companies within the AI space [9]. Specific Investment Strategies - The report outlines three specific investment strategies: focusing on companies that have demonstrated AI productivity gains, targeting cyclical sectors benefiting from infrastructure investments, and identifying consumer companies likely to benefit from tax refund spending [13][14].

Investment Rating - The report suggests an overweight position in equities while maintaining neutral allocations in bonds, commodities, and cash, with a low allocation to credit [2] Core Insights - Despite high market valuations, macro fundamentals are expected to support the current levels, and high valuations alone do not constitute a bearish signal [3] - Economic growth in 2026 is anticipated to be diversified, driven by fiscal policy, regulatory easing, and AI penetration, while political and geopolitical risks should be monitored [4] - The importance of diversification in asset allocation is emphasized, particularly in the late economic cycle, with a recommendation for alternative strategies and diverse investment styles [5][6] Summary by Sections Economic Outlook - The macro outlook for 2026 is positive, with strong performance expected in the first half, but potential slowdown in the second half. Growth will be more diversified, supported by fiscal policy and AI integration [4] Market Valuation - Current valuations are high, with the S&P Shiller PE ratio at its highest level since the tech bubble, but macro factors support these valuations, indicating that high valuations alone do not signal a market downturn [3] Asset Allocation Strategy - The asset allocation strategy for early 2026 favors risk assets, particularly equities, while maintaining neutral positions in bonds and commodities. Credit is underweighted due to low credit spreads [2] - The report highlights the need for selective and cautious approaches in spread trading and credit investments, recommending an overweight in equities to navigate the current economic environment [7] Sector and Regional Trends - Different regions are driven by various factors, with the U.S. led by technology, while value stocks are recovering in Europe. The report notes a balanced dynamic across sectors, creating opportunities for alpha generation [8] Commodity Market Outlook - The commodity market is expected to see a divergence in returns, with gold projected to rise to $4,900 per ounce by year-end, while Brent crude oil prices are expected to decline to an average of $56 per barrel [18]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the state of social financing and credit in December, highlighting trends in corporate and household loans, as well as deposit movements in the banking sector [1][2][3][4]. Key Points on Social Financing and Credit - In December, corporate loans increased by 580 billion year-on-year, driven by policy financial tools, a low base from the previous year, and year-end lending boosts from banks [1][2]. - However, household loans decreased for the third consecutive month, with a reduction exceeding 400 billion, indicating weak demand and a contraction in leverage [3]. - The overall social financing growth rate was 8.3%, with loan growth at 6.3%, both showing slight month-on-month declines [2]. - Corporate medium to long-term loans saw a significant year-on-year increase of 390 billion, attributed to policy support and the low base effect from December of the previous year [2]. Insights on Household Loans - The decline in household loans includes a net decrease of 1,000 billion in short-term loans and a 2,900 billion decrease in medium to long-term loans [3]. - The expectation is for M1 growth to gradually recover in January 2026, potentially rising from 3.8% to a range of 4-5% due to low base effects and increased market activity [3][8]. Deposit Trends - December saw a rise in deposit growth from 7.7% to 8.8%, with no significant outflow of household deposits [5]. - M1 growth decreased to 3.8%, indicating that while the market is active, there is no significant change in household risk appetite [5]. - Corporate deposits decreased by 600 billion year-on-year, while non-bank deposits increased by 2.8 trillion, influenced by a self-discipline agreement on demand deposits [7]. Future Market Expectations - The outlook for January and beyond suggests that banks remain active in lending, particularly in infrastructure and manufacturing sectors, but retail demand may continue to lag [4]. - There is a need to monitor the impact of structural monetary policy tools and interest rate adjustments on credit growth throughout the year [11]. Central Bank Policies - The central bank announced a 25 basis point reduction in the re-lending and rediscount rates, aimed at alleviating pressure on bank interest margins [9][10]. - Structural monetary policy tools are expected to expand, supporting financing for private enterprises, which may help alleviate financing difficulties for small and medium-sized enterprises [10]. - A comprehensive interest rate cut is anticipated between the end of Q1 and Q2, with an expected annual reduction of 10-20 basis points [10]. Additional Observations - Despite approximately 6 trillion in excess savings, the potential for large-scale market entry remains uncertain and will depend on market wealth effects and policy guidance [6]. - The current phase of household funds entering the market is still in its early stages, requiring ongoing observation of market dynamics [6].