云洞察-市场前瞻 市场前瞻| 安居客独家发布：2025 一二手房找房倾向趋势年报 核心内容 合作洽谈联系方式：微信:13818400935；邮箱:husixu01@58.com； 1 找房倾向趋势：2025 年，新房与二手房市场持续分化，两者客户重合度 维持在 20%以下。不过，二手房找房人数占比显著上升，达 65.4%，较 2024 年同比增长 2.8 个百分点，这使得二手房对新房的分流压力增强， 同比提升 4.4 个百分点。城市间分化明显，呈现出"城市能级越高，客户 重合度越低、分流压力越小"的特点。 市场变化特征：2025 年房地产市场呈现三大特征：一是二手房表现强于 新房，找房热度与成交量均彰显强劲韧性；二是二手房成为成交主力，占 比持续攀升，2025 年达 65.4%，同比提高 3 个百分点；三是产品需求分 化，大体呈现"新房改善化、二手刚需化"趋势，不过城市间因条件差异， 市场表现有所不同。 云洞察-市场前瞻 一、找房倾向核心指标 1.一二手房市场重合度长期低于 20%，一二手房分化明显且稳定 衡量一二手房市场客户是趋同还是分化，关键指标在于两市场间的客户重合度。重 合度越高，表明两个市场竞争越激 ...

新房网签面积同比降幅扩大，二手房网签面积同比降幅收窄 ——样本城市周度高频数据全追踪 周期/房地产 一、核心要点 图 1：样本城市新房及二手房网签面积同比（截至 1 月 8 日） 资料来源：Wind、房管局、招商证券等 证券研究报告 | 行业定期报告 2026 年 01 月 11 日 资料来源：Wind、房管局、招商证券等 前瞻及佐证指标： 二手及租金价格：2025 年 11 月，北京和广州二手成交价格同比降幅扩大幅度 均大于租金同比降幅扩大幅度；上海二手成交价格同比降幅扩大，租金同比降 幅收窄；深圳二手成交价格同比降幅扩大幅度大于租金同比增幅收窄幅度； 二手带看人数：2025 年 12 月，12 个样本城市平均带看人数较 11 月环比转负 至-5.1%，同比降幅较 11 月收窄 4.3 PCT 至-7.6%； 流动性前瞻：根据招商证券房地产组流动性前瞻指标判断，2026 年 1 月，宏 观层面流动性环比紧缩力度扩大，同比转向紧缩； 挂牌价调涨占比：2025 年 12 月，12 个样本城市挂牌价调涨房源占比从 11 月 的 5.4%上升 0.4 PCT 至 5.8%，同比降幅较 11 月收窄 15.8 PCT ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [2][5] Core Insights - Recent real estate transactions have declined due to external uncertainties, but future policies are expected to mitigate these negative impacts and stabilize the market [2][5] - The report highlights a significant drop in new home sales across major cities, with a 67.4% decrease week-on-week and a 46.3% decrease year-on-year for the 30 major cities [5][10] - The land transaction volume also showed a decline, with a total land supply area of 13.38 million square meters and a transaction area of 12.19 million square meters, reflecting a supply-to-sales ratio of 1.10 [4][10] Summary by Sections Transaction Data - In the second week of 2026, new home sales in 30 major cities amounted to 1.03 million square meters, down 67.4% from the previous week and down 46.3% year-on-year [5][10] - First-tier cities recorded a sales area of 320,000 square meters, a decrease of 54.9% week-on-week and 50% year-on-year [5][10] - Second-tier cities saw a sales area of 460,000 square meters, down 76.9% week-on-week and 41% year-on-year [5][10] - Third-tier cities had a sales area of 260,000 square meters, down 46.3% week-on-week and 50.6% year-on-year [5][10] Land Transaction Data - The total land supply area for the year to date in the top 100 cities is 2.37 million square meters, down 12% year-on-year, while the cumulative transaction area is 4.694 million square meters, down 23.2% year-on-year [4][10] - The total land transfer revenue reached 36.2 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 31.9% [4][10] - The land premium rate was recorded at 0.5%, a decrease of 1.69 percentage points from the previous week [4][10] Inventory and Market Dynamics - The available housing inventory in 35 cities was 31.526 million square meters, down 1.07% month-on-month and down 2.03% year-on-year [10][12] - The inventory clearance cycle for these cities increased to 26.17 months, up 5.64% month-on-month and up 23.51% year-on-year [10][12]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has shown a strong upward trend in the first trading week of 2026, with significant gains in major indices and individual stocks, indicating a positive start to the year [2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The major A-share indices continued their upward trend from the end of 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 3.82%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 4.40%, and the ChiNext Index and STAR Market 50 Index by 3.89% and 9.80%, respectively [2]. - The "Everyday Brand 100 Index" achieved a weekly increase of 1.26%, closing at 1159.90 points [2]. - Over 10 constituent stocks saw weekly gains exceeding 5%, with notable performances from China Life, Zijin Mining, and Guizhou Moutai, each increasing their market value by over 50 billion yuan [1][2]. Group 2: Sector Performance - The insurance, real estate, and non-ferrous metal sectors experienced strong rebounds, with China Pacific Insurance and China Life Insurance seeing weekly increases of 10.95% and 9.94%, respectively [2]. - The performance of Zijin Mining was particularly noteworthy, with its stock price reaching a new high and a total market value nearing 1 trillion yuan [4]. Group 3: Company Insights - Zijin Mining's market value reached 989.7 billion yuan as of January 9, 2026, with a projected net profit for 2025 estimated between 51 billion and 52 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 59% to 62% [4]. - The company plans to produce 105 tons of gold, 1.2 million tons of copper, and 520 tons of silver in 2026, indicating a significant increase in production capacity [4]. - Zijin Mining is actively expanding its resource portfolio through acquisitions, including overseas gold mines in Ghana and Kazakhstan, as well as domestic acquisitions [4]. Group 4: Management Changes - Following the profit forecast announcement, Zijin Mining appointed a new chairman, Zou Laichang, and a new president, Lin Hongfu, marking a transition in leadership aimed at shifting from a founder-driven to a mechanism-driven management model [5].

Economic Outlook for 2026 - The report anticipates a "gradual warming" of the Chinese economy in 2026, with GDP growth expected to rebound seasonally, and actual GDP growth projected to be in the range of 4.5% to 5% for the year, approaching the upper limit [1] - Nominal GDP growth is expected to show a more significant rebound, with the macro and micro "temperature difference" gradually disappearing [1] Price Trends - Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to gradually rise to a moderate range, while the decline in Producer Price Index (PPI) is expected to narrow, alleviating negative effects related to prices [1] Consumption Sector - The consumption market is projected to operate steadily in 2026, with a recovery in dining consumption, emergence of new consumption formats driven by AI and robotics, and growth in service consumption being the main drivers of consumption growth, with total retail sales of consumer goods expected to return to a growth rate of around 4% [2] Investment Sector - Investment is expected to stabilize, with infrastructure investment recovering first and a significant reduction in the decline of real estate investment; a notable structural optimization combining "investment in physical assets" and "investment in people" (such as education and healthcare) is anticipated [2] Foreign Trade and Employment - Foreign trade is expected to remain at a high level, with a moderate appreciation of the RMB exchange rate, overall employment stability, synchronized growth in residents' income, a "soft landing" in the real estate market, and an estimated annual stock market increase of about 10% [2] Expert Insights - Experts emphasize the importance of stabilizing prices as a core policy for 2026, aiming to bring CPI closer to a target of 2%, while controlling real estate supply and stabilizing housing prices to avoid negative impacts on consumption and investment [2] - The real estate market is currently experiencing a "decline in both volume and price," and further price adjustments are needed to convert potential demand into effective demand [3] - The long-term trend of RMB appreciation is seen as a necessary step for China to transition to a high-income country, with policies needing to accommodate this trend [3] - Balancing "technological self-reliance" with "improving livelihoods" is crucial, focusing on breakthroughs in AI and advanced manufacturing while enhancing social security for vulnerable groups [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of improving people's livelihoods as a driving force for economic development, highlighting the need to expand domestic demand and create a strong domestic market as a foundation for economic growth [3][4][5]. - The article discusses the significant potential for high-quality development in the real estate sector, noting that while urban housing stock is substantial, many residents still have unmet housing needs, particularly in terms of quality and location [4][5]. - It highlights the changing consumer preferences towards service consumption, with a notable increase in per capita service consumption expenditure from 5,000 yuan to 13,000 yuan between 2013 and 2024, indicating a shift towards experiential and emotional consumption [5][6]. Group 2 - The article outlines the necessity of creating a virtuous cycle of employment, income, consumption, and investment, emphasizing the importance of stabilizing employment and increasing income to boost consumption [7]. - It stresses the need for coordinated efforts to promote both consumption and investment, suggesting that they are interdependent and should work together to enhance the domestic market's growth and stability [8][9]. - The article calls for increased investment in sectors that align with new consumer demands, such as healthcare and cultural tourism, to better meet the needs of the population [10][11]. Group 3 - The article discusses the implementation of more proactive macroeconomic policies, including fiscal and monetary measures, to support economic stability and growth, with a focus on enhancing the effectiveness of these policies [25][26]. - It emphasizes the importance of precise and effective fiscal policies, advocating for increased government spending on key projects and social welfare to stimulate economic activity [26][27]. - The article also highlights the need for flexible monetary policies that adapt to changing economic conditions, ensuring liquidity and supporting the real economy [28][29].

Macro Economy - The State Council has deployed a package policy for fiscal and financial coordination to promote domestic demand, emphasizing the importance of effective demand expansion and innovative macro-control measures [2] - The National Business Work Conference highlighted the need to accelerate the cultivation of new growth points in service consumption and optimize the implementation of the old-for-new consumption policy [3] - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced the cancellation of VAT export tax rebates for photovoltaic products starting April 1, 2026, and a reduction in the VAT export tax rebate rate for battery products from 9% to 6% until the end of 2026 [4] Capital Market - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has significantly increased the rewards for whistleblowers reporting violations in the securities and futures markets, with the maximum reward rising to 1 million yuan for major cases [10] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange issued over 130 disciplinary penalties for information disclosure violations in 2025, with a focus on financial fraud and serious violations leading to delisting [11] Industry Dynamics - The first successful flight of the "Tianma-1000" unmanned transport aircraft was reported, which is designed for logistics transport and emergency rescue, showcasing its capabilities in complex terrains [16] - New Jian Transmission, a first-tier supplier for humanoid robots, has initiated its IPO process, indicating strong industry interest due to its connection with Tesla's Optimus supply chain [17] - The domestic first 3D-printed aviation engine has completed its flight test, marking a significant milestone in China's aerospace technology [30] Company News - Tianpu Co., Ltd. is under formal investigation for significant disclosure omissions, raising concerns about its market conduct [33] - Guizhou's Green Land Holdings has projected a net loss of 16 billion to 19 billion yuan for 2025, attributed to declining asset prices and increased promotional efforts [36] - The stock of Guozheng Technology is set to resume trading after a suspension due to abnormal price fluctuations, with an expected net loss for the fiscal year [39]

Group 1 - The major indices have shown significant increases, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 3.82%, the Shenzhen Component by 4.40%, and the ChiNext by 3.89% [1][16] - Most industry main lines are not showing obvious overheating signs and remain in a position where accumulation is possible [2][17] - The A-share ROE is expected to rise for the first time in five years after 14 consecutive quarters of decline, which is a prerequisite for stabilizing valuations [2][17] Group 2 - The spring market is characterized by a lack of major downside risks, with only short-term adjustments expected after sufficient market performance [3][18] - The market is likely to continue its upward trend, with a focus on technology as the main line of the bull market [5][20] - The current market structure shows a significant increase in trading volume, indicating sustained market activity [29] Group 3 - The upcoming policy catalysts, including the review of the 14th Five-Year Plan and potential improvements in Sino-US trade relations, are expected to stabilize market expectations [4][19] - The market is experiencing a "rotation + broad rise" state, with small-cap growth indices performing particularly well [7][22] - Investors are advised to focus on sectors such as AI applications, traditional consumption benefiting from policy support, and undervalued real estate [21][24] Group 4 - The short-term market may continue its upward trend, with significant inflows into sectors like robotics and commercial aerospace [8][24] - The commercial aerospace sector has shown strong capital inflows, although it is currently at a historically high trading density [8][25] - The overall market sentiment is improving, supported by macroeconomic factors and policy measures [28][29]

Core Viewpoint - The 2026 "strong medicine" policy for the real estate market aims to address the industry's challenges and stabilize macroeconomic conditions, focusing on improving market expectations and promoting high-quality development after a prolonged adjustment period [1][3]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The real estate sector has faced significant declines since reaching peak levels in 2021, with real estate development investment dropping to 7.86 trillion yuan in the first eleven months of 2025, a decrease of over 40% from the peak [3]. - The sales area of commercial housing fell to 787 million square meters, a decline of over 50%, returning to levels seen in 2009 [3]. - The average price of second-hand homes in 30 major cities has decreased by 39% from historical peaks, reflecting ongoing low market confidence [3]. Group 2: Policy Measures - The "strong medicine" policy features a dual approach targeting both supply and demand, with significant measures aimed at reducing home purchase costs [5]. - Starting in 2026, the interest rate for existing housing provident fund loans will be reduced by 25 basis points, with the first-time homebuyer rate dropping to 2.6%, automatically effective without application [5]. - Local governments are also implementing measures such as increasing loan limits for families with multiple children and providing home purchase subsidies to lower barriers to homeownership [5]. Group 3: Market Response - The policy aims to reshape market expectations, with initial effects already visible, such as a 72.8% increase in property visits and a 37.4% rise in second-hand home viewings following the new policies in Beijing [8]. - The reaffirmation of real estate as a foundational industry for the national economy has corrected market perceptions and is expected to gradually restore market confidence [8]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The 2026 "strong medicine" policy is seen as a critical response to stabilize the market in the short term while aiming for long-term high-quality development [9]. - The policy window presents opportunities for rational home purchases, while the industry faces both risks and transformation opportunities [9]. - The market is expected to gradually achieve a balance between supply and demand, with a focus on risk control and quality improvement, supporting stable economic operations in the new five-year plan [9].

Core Insights - The U.S. real estate market is in a downward cycle from 2024 to 2025, with potential for recovery in 2026 depending on stabilization in property sales and continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 1: U.S. Real Estate Market Dynamics - The core issue in the U.S. real estate market is insufficient demand, with supply shortages being secondary [10][77] - Mortgage rates have decreased by 80 basis points since 2025, yet real estate sales and investment remain sluggish [1][6] - The average monthly cost of homeownership is $3,060, accounting for 43.2% of household income, significantly higher than the $2,227 monthly rental cost [2][19][69] Group 2: Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Policy - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates 1-2 times in 2026, but the downward potential for long-term Treasury yields is limited [3][28] - Mortgage rates are closely tied to the 10-year Treasury yield, which is projected to remain around 4.0% by the end of 2026, limiting the impact of Fed rate cuts on mortgage rates [3][41][69] Group 3: Trump's Real Estate Policy Initiatives - Trump's administration has proposed five key real estate policies aimed at stimulating the market, including transferable mortgages and a ban on large institutional purchases of single-family homes [4][52][55] - The effectiveness of these policies is questioned, as only 1% of U.S. homes are owned by large institutional investors, and the proposed $200 billion MBS purchase may only marginally affect mortgage spreads [55][56][69] - The long-term solution to the housing crisis lies in increasing housing supply, which is hindered by high construction costs and labor shortages [56][69] Group 4: Market Outlook - The U.S. real estate market is expected to show only weak recovery in 2026, with slight improvements in property sales anticipated as mortgage rates gradually decline [65][71]