每日晨报│2025 年 11 月 26 日 | 主要市场指数表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收市价 | 上个交易日升 | YTD 升跌 | | 恒生指数 | 25,894 | +0.69% | +29.09% | | 恒生科技指数 | 5,612 | +1.20% | +25.60% | | 国企指数 | 9,158 | +0.87% | +25.63% | | 沪深 300 | 4,490 | +0.95% | +14.12% | | 上证综合指数 | 3,870 | +0.87% | +15.46% | | 深证成份指数 | 12,777 | +1.53% | +22.69% | | 中小板指 | 7,794 | +1.81% | +22.13% | | 道琼斯指数 | 47,112 | +1.43% | +10.74% | | 标普 500 指数 | 6,765 | +0.91% | +15.03% | | 纳斯达克指数 | 23,025 | +0.67% | +19.24% | | 伦敦富时指数 | 9,609 | +0.78% | +17.58% | ...

中银国际发布研报称，阿里巴巴-W(09988)9月底止2026财年第二季业绩稳固，核心业务依旧强劲。期内 总收入同比增5%，主要贡献来自稳健的中国核心电商客户管理收入(CMR)(同比增10%)，及加速增长的 云业务(同比增34%)，并对上述两项业务持续看好。予阿里(BABA.US)美股目标价187美元，港股目标价 182港元;美股港股同维持"买入"评级。该行轻微下调阿里2027至2028财年总收入预测1%至2%，大致维 持净利润预测不变，但将中国核心电商盈利预测轻微下调1%至2%，以反映收入预期被降低。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，中银国际发布研报称，阿里巴巴-W(09988)9月底止2026财年第二季业绩稳固，核心 业务依旧强劲。期内总收入同比增5%，主要贡献来自稳健的中国核心电商客户管理收入(CMR)(同比增 10%)，及加速增长的云业务(同比增34%)，并对上述两项业务持续看好。予阿里(BABA.US)美股目标价 187美元，港股目标价182港元; 美股港股同维持"买入"评级。该行轻微下调阿里2027至2028财年总收入 预测1%至2%，大致维持净利润预测不变，但将中国核心电商盈利预测轻微下调1%至2%，以反映收入 预期被降低。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Alibaba is undergoing a fundamental strategic shift from "growth at all costs" to "efficient growth," with a focus on profitability rather than just user scale [1] Group 1: Strategic Shift - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that Alibaba's growth model is transitioning from user scale-driven to efficiency-driven, with a potential profitability inflection point expected by Q3 2025 [1] - The report predicts that Alibaba's overall profitability will significantly recover starting Q4 2025 as the company shifts its growth strategy [1] Group 2: Business Performance - The report highlights two key business areas driving this transition: cloud services and food delivery [1] - The cloud business is expected to see a revenue growth rate increase to 37% year-on-year, driven by strong demand for AI [1][3] - The food delivery and flash purchase business is showing a significant reduction in losses, with projected losses decreasing from 350 billion yuan to approximately 210 billion yuan by Q4 2025 [2] Group 3: Financial Adjustments - Due to high base effects, the growth of Customer Management Revenue (CMR) is expected to slow down to 6% for both Q4 2025 and the fiscal year 2026 [4][5] - Morgan Stanley has adjusted its revenue forecasts for Alibaba, lowering estimates by 1% and 2% for fiscal years 2026 and 2027, respectively, while noting that strong growth in cloud services partially offsets this [5] - Despite these adjustments, the overall outlook remains positive, with a maintained "overweight" rating and a target price adjustment to $230 for U.S. shares and $225 for Hong Kong shares [1][5]

Core Viewpoint - The 2025-2026 FIS World Cup will be held at the Yunding Ski Resort in Zhangjiakou, Hebei, attracting over 400 athletes from nearly 40 countries, including renowned athletes like Gu Ailing and Su Yiming [2][5] Group 1: Event Details - The World Cup is the highest level of FIS events and serves as a qualification event for the 2026 Milan Winter Olympics, featuring disciplines such as snowboard and freestyle skiing big air, U-shaped terrain, and aerial tricks [5] - Tickets for the event are now available for reservation through the "JD GO" WeChat mini-program, allowing spectators to experience the charm of winter sports up close [5] Group 2: Sponsorship and Promotions - JD Sports, as the official sponsor, will create a 200-square-meter pop-up store at the event, collaborating with brands like BURTON, Oakley, and Columbia to provide consumers with hands-on experiences of professional skiing equipment [5][11] - The "Winter Ski Season" promotion on JD includes discounts starting from 12% on various skiing gear, with special offers on popular items [7][11] Group 3: Product Offerings - The FACTION 2526 Gu Ailing co-branded Studio0 skis are designed for high-intensity performance, reflecting Gu Ailing's competitive spirit this season [7] - Various skiing apparel and equipment are highlighted, including BURTON CYCLIC GORETEX jackets for harsh weather, AWKA domestic ski suits, and advanced helmets and goggles designed for safety and comfort [9] Group 4: Strategic Goals - JD aims to deepen its involvement in the winter sports sector by integrating supply chain advantages to offer a comprehensive range of equipment solutions for consumers, from entry-level to professional [11] - The company plans to continue enhancing partnerships with top international events to promote the growth of the winter sports economy [12]

来源：金吾财讯 金吾财讯 | 美团(03690)股价走高，截至发稿，涨6.26%，报104.4港元，成交额58亿港元。 消息面上，竞争对手阿里昨日公布财报。截至9月30日止三个月，归属普通股股东的净利润为209.9亿元 (人民币，下同)，同比减少52.16%。期内，收入为2477.95亿元，同比增长4.77%。期内，电商业务收入 为1029.33亿元，相较2024年同期增长9%。其中，即时零售业务收入为229.06亿元，相较2024年同期增 长60%，主要是得益于2025年4月底推出的"淘宝闪购"所带来的订单量增长。公告中称，第三季经营活 动产生的现金流量净额为人民币100.99亿元，同比下滑68%。自由现金流的下降主要归因于对即时零售 的投入以及公司的云基础设施支出增加。 另外，里昂预测美团第三季度核心本地生活业务收入同比减少1.3%，新业务收入同比增长17.7%。 ...

11 月 25 日，京东京造携手 JoyInside 推出 AI 智能学习闹钟及 AI 护眼学霸灯系列新品，具备 "能答疑、 会提醒、懂情绪" 的核心能力，连同此前上线的 AI 毛绒玩具，共同构建起 "娱乐互动 + 桌面学习 + 成 长守护" 的儿童成长陪伴体系，助力孩子自主成长，为家长减负。 孩子起床拖沓、学习分心、疑问无人解答，加之独处时缺乏情感陪伴，以及家长对用眼健康和远程关怀 本次京东京造联合JoyInside推出的新品涵盖 3 款 AI 智能学习闹钟与 1 款 AI 护眼学霸灯，满足不同家庭 需求。基础款 AI 智能学习闹钟 T2 主打孩子自主操作，支持语音设置 50 组闹钟、拼音跟读、古诗解析 等功能，还可点播海量少儿故事；进阶款"智慧宝"强化节奏管理，新增番茄工作法、可视化课程表查询 及家长语音微聊功能；高阶款视频通话版则新增视频通话功能，同时保留英语口语纠音、组词造句示例 等全量学习功能。AI 护眼学霸灯则兼具硬核护眼与智能学习属性，不仅通过 RG0 无蓝光危害认证，符 合AAAA 级照明标准，还支持语音操控、即时解答学习疑问，45 分钟定时休息功能有助于孩子养成科 学用眼习惯。 的担忧，构成 ...

Core Viewpoint - Alibaba's recent financial results show a mixed performance, with strong growth in AI and cloud services but significant declines in overall profitability and concerns regarding its e-commerce business [1][2] Financial Performance - For the second fiscal quarter, Alibaba reported revenue of RMB 247.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5% [1] - Adjusted EBITA fell sharply by 78% to RMB 9.1 billion [1] - Net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders was RMB 20.99 billion, down 52% year-on-year [1] - Non-GAAP net profit decreased by 72% to RMB 10.35 billion [1] Business Segments - The AI and cloud segments showed robust growth, with the cloud intelligence group generating revenue of RMB 39.82 billion, a 34% year-on-year increase [1] - AI-related product revenue has achieved triple-digit year-on-year growth for nine consecutive quarters [1] Market Reaction - Alibaba's stock experienced a decline of over 2% during trading, closing down 1.77% at HKD 155, with a trading volume of HKD 9.88 billion [1] - Concerns regarding the e-commerce business have increased, particularly after management indicated potential short-term fluctuations in customer management revenue and profits due to intensified competition and user investment [2]

Core Viewpoint - Alibaba's recent financial performance shows mixed results, with strong growth in AI and cloud sectors but significant declines in overall revenue and net profit, raising concerns among investors about its e-commerce business [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the second fiscal quarter, Alibaba reported revenue of RMB 247.795 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5% [1]. - Adjusted EBITA fell sharply by 78% to RMB 9.073 billion [1]. - Net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders was RMB 20.99 billion, down 52% year-on-year [1]. - Non-GAAP net profit was RMB 10.352 billion, a decrease of 72% compared to the previous year [1]. Business Segment Performance - The cloud intelligence group generated revenue of RMB 39.82 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 34% [1]. - AI-related product revenue has seen triple-digit year-on-year growth for nine consecutive quarters [1]. Market Reaction - Alibaba's stock price fell over 2% during trading, closing down 1.77% at HKD 155, with a trading volume of HKD 9.88 billion [1]. - Concerns regarding the e-commerce business have increased, particularly after management indicated potential short-term fluctuations in customer management revenue and profits due to intensified competition and user investment [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Alibaba Group [3][5] Core Insights - Alibaba's revenue for FY2026Q2 reached 247.8 billion yuan, a 5% increase year-on-year, while Non-GAAP net profit was 10.4 billion yuan, down 72% [1] - The e-commerce segment shows steady growth in monetization rates, with a stable market share in food delivery and potential for improvement in profitability [1][5] - The cloud business exceeded expectations with significant revenue growth driven by strong demand in the AI cloud market, indicating a promising outlook for future growth [1][5] Financial Data Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: Projected revenues for FY2024 to FY2028 are 941.2 billion yuan, 996.3 billion yuan, 1,062.5 billion yuan, 1,168.7 billion yuan, and 1,285.6 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 8%, 6%, 7%, 10%, and 10% [2][8] - **Adjusted EBITA**: Expected adjusted EBITA for FY2026 is 117.2 billion yuan, reflecting a significant decrease of 32% compared to FY2025 [2][8] - **Non-GAAP Net Profit**: Forecasted Non-GAAP net profits for FY2026 to FY2028 are 106.9 billion yuan, 166.6 billion yuan, and 201.8 billion yuan respectively, with a notable decline of 32% in FY2026 [2][8] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: EPS is projected to be 5.63 yuan for FY2026, with a PE ratio of 25.5 [2][9] Stock Performance - The stock has shown an absolute performance of 20% over the past 12 months, with a relative performance of -9.8% [4] Valuation - The target price is set at 185 HKD per share, with the current stock price at 158 HKD, indicating potential upside [3][5]