Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Views - **Copper**: Today, copper prices showed a strong and volatile trend, with the main contract closing above the 78,000 yuan mark. The recent upward movement of copper prices is largely due to the easing of Sino - US relations. Although the rebound of the overseas US dollar index and the decline of gold prices at high levels put some pressure on copper prices, in the context of low industrial inventories and a warming macro - environment, copper prices are expected to rise in a volatile manner [4]. - **Aluminum**: Today, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum fluctuated around the 20,000 yuan mark. The recent increase in aluminum prices is also largely due to the easing of Sino - US relations. In a low - inventory situation, the warming macro - environment has pushed up aluminum prices. However, the short - term price rebound to the 20,000 - yuan mark faces technical pressure, and upstream electrolytic aluminum plants have a strong hedging intention due to high profits. Continuous attention should be paid to the long - short game at the 20,000 - yuan mark [5]. - **Nickel**: Today, nickel prices showed a weak and volatile trend, with continuous increase in positions. After a short - term rebound to the high in April, nickel prices fell back. The market's increasing expectation of the Philippine ore - ban policy has largely driven the nickel price to bottom out and rebound, while the long - term oversupply of nickel elements suppresses the nickel price. It is expected that the futures price will tend to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the support at last week's low [6]. Industry Dynamics Summary - **Copper**: On May 12, the social inventory of electrolytic copper by Mysteel was 124,900 tons, a decrease of 7,500 tons compared to the 6th [8]. - **Nickel**: On May 12, the mainstream reference contract for refined nickel in the Shanghai market was the SHFE nickel 2506 contract. The mainstream premium of Jinchuan electrolytic nickel was +2,200 yuan/ton, with a price of 125,750 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of Russian nickel was +300 yuan/ton, with a price of 123,850 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of Norwegian nickel was +2,700 yuan/ton, with a price of 126,250 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of nickel beans was - 900 yuan/ton, with a price of 122,650 yuan/ton [9]. Related Charts Summary Copper - **Copper Basis**: The chart shows the relationship between the basis and the spot tax - inclusive average price of 1 electrolytic copper in Shanghai [10]. - **Copper Monthly Spread**: The chart shows the monthly spread of SHFE copper and the main continuous contract [15]. - **Domestic Visible Inventory of Electrolytic Copper**: It includes social inventory and bonded - area inventory [12]. - **Overseas Copper Exchange Inventory**: Relevant inventory data from overseas exchanges [17]. - **LME Copper Cancellation Ratio**: The chart shows the cancellation ratio of LME copper and inventory [13]. - **SHFE Warehouse Receipt Inventory**: The chart shows the SHFE warehouse receipt inventory [18]. Aluminum - **Aluminum Basis**: The chart shows the relationship between the average price of aluminum premium and discount in the Yangtze River spot market and the futures closing price of aluminum [22]. - **Domestic Social Inventory of Electrolytic Aluminum**: The chart shows the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum [24]. - **Aluminum Oxide Trend**: The chart shows the futures closing price and the national average price of aluminum oxide [26]. - **Aluminum Monthly Spread**: The chart shows the monthly spread of aluminum futures [28]. - **Overseas Exchange Inventory of Electrolytic Aluminum**: It includes LME and COMEX inventories [33]. - **Aluminum Oxide Inventory**: The chart shows the total inventory and port inventory of aluminum oxide [31]. Nickel - **Nickel Basis**: The chart shows the relationship between the basis and the spot tax - inclusive average price of 1 electrolytic nickel in Shanghai [34]. - **LME Inventory**: The chart shows the LME nickel inventory and cancellation ratio [36]. - **LME Nickel Trend**: The chart shows the LME nickel 3M electronic - trading price and the LME nickel 0 - 3 spread [38]. - **Nickel Monthly Spread**: The chart shows the monthly spread of SHFE nickel [40]. - **SHFE Inventory**: The chart shows the SHFE nickel inventory and warehouse receipt inventory [42]. - **Nickel Ore Port Inventory**: The chart shows the nickel ore port inventory [44].

品种 国内前日期货 收盘价 （元/吨） 国内基差 （元/吨） 前日LME3月 期收盘价 (美元/吨） LME现货升贴水 （CASH-3M） （美元/吨） LME库存 （吨） LME库存日 度变化 （吨） 铜 78,590 -30 9,420 23.87 190,750 -1,025 铝 19,945 0 2,383 -5.34 401,525 -2,025 锌 22,725 415 2,617 -27.37 169,850 -475 镍 125,920 -2,730 15,548 -198.42 197,754 84 铅 16,955 -190 1,958 5.95 251,800 -1,625 锡 263,050 -1,130 31,636 15.00 2,790 85 数据来源：Wind，申银万国期货研究所 数据来源：Wind，申银万国期货研究所 国 内 市 场 基 差 L M E 现 货 升 贴 水 铜 铝 锌 镍 铅 锡 基差 -30 0 415 -2,730 -190 -1,130 -30 0 415 -2,730 -190 -1,130 -3,000 -2,000 -1,000 0 1,000 元 ...

有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2025 年 5 月 13 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 种 | | | | | | 点评 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铜 | 隔夜 LME 铜冲高回落。宏观方面，据美国财政部的最新数据，美国 4 月预算盈余 2584 | | | | | | | | 亿美元，上年同期为盈余 2095 亿美元；4 月份美国海关关税收入达到 163 亿美元，创 | | | | | | | | 历史新高，同比增长 92 亿美元，增幅达 130%，该数据在一定程度上缓解了赤字压力， | | | | | | | | | | | 预算赤字没有进一步扩大。另外，中美谈判取得超预期进展，中美各取消了共计 91%的 | | | | | | | | | 加征关税，暂停实施 24%的反制关税。库存方面，LME 铜库存下降 1025 吨至 190750 | | | | 吨。国内需求方面，当前订单相对平稳，但旺季转淡季预期下，终端需求订单可能逐步 | | | | | | | | | 放缓。中美贸易谈判取得超预期进展，预计将推动风险偏好继续回升，对铜而言有望短 ...

跨期套利跟踪 2025/05/12 铜 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 -440 -980 -1430 -1770 理论价差 491 881 1279 1678 锌 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 -375 -630 -775 -850 理论价差 216 338 459 581 铝 次月-现货月 三月-现货月四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 -65 -150 -205 -205 理论价差 209 320 430 540 铅 次月-现货月 三月-现货 月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 60 50 40 60 理论价差 209 313 418 523 镍 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货 月 五月-现货月 价差 -90 10 250 510 锡 5-1 价差 490 理论价差 5366 期现套利跟踪 2025/05/12 铜 当月合约-现货 次月合约-现货 价差 -295 -735 理论价差 109 478 锌 当月合约-现货 次月合约-现货 价差 -225 -600 理论价差 5 137 免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及 ...

锡周报 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属 刘雨萱投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 日期：2025年5月11日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 锡：区间窄幅震荡 强弱分析：中性 价格区间：254000-273000元/吨 锡进口盈亏小幅收窄 最新社会库存小幅累库 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 01-03 01-14 01-26 02-10 02-24 03-07 03-18 03-29 04-11 04-22 05-06 05-19 06-02 06-14 06-28 07-09 07-21 07-31 08-12 08-23 09-03 09-15 09-25 10-14 10-25 11-05 11-17 11-27 12-09 12-20 12-31 吨 SMM社会库存 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 -60000 -50000 -40000 -30000 -20000 ...

| | 20250509申万期货有色金属基差日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 铜： 可能短期宽幅波动 | | | | 锌： 可能短期宽幅波动 | | | 摘要 | | | | | 铝： 短期内或以震荡偏弱为主。 | | | | 镍： 可能短期区间波动运行 | | | 品种 | 观点 | 策略方向 | | | 铜：夜盘铜价收涨。目前精矿加工费总体低位以及低铜价，考验冶炼产量。 | | | | 根据国家统计局数据来看，国内下游需求总体稳定向好，电网带动电力投资 高增长，家电产量延续增长，需关注出口变化，新能源渗透率提升有望巩固 | 可能短期宽 | | 铜 | 汽车铜需求，地产数据降幅缩窄。铜价短期可能宽幅波动，关注美国关税谈 | 幅波动 | | | 判进展，以及美元、人民币汇率、库存和基差等变化。 | | | | 锌：夜盘锌价收涨。近期精矿加工费持续回升。由国家统计局数据来看，国 内汽车产销正增长，基建稳定增长，家电表现良好，地产数据降幅缩窄。市 | | | 锌 | 场预期今年精矿供应明显改善，冶炼供应可能恢复，前期锌价的回落已部分 | 可能短期宽 | | | 消化产量增长预期。短期锌 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Copper prices may experience wide - range fluctuations in the short term, influenced by factors such as US tariff negotiations, exchange rates, inventory, and basis [1]. - Zinc prices might also have wide - range short - term fluctuations, with attention on US tariff talks, exchange rates, and smelting output [1]. - Aluminum prices are likely to be weak and fluctuate in the short term, affected by Trump's tariff attitude, domestic monetary policy, alumina prices, and downstream demand [1]. - Nickel prices may operate within a range in the short term due to the combination of tight nickel ore supply, tariff policies, and different demand performances in various sectors [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - Night - session copper prices slightly declined. Low concentrate processing fees and low copper prices challenge smelting output. Domestic downstream demand is generally stable and improving, with power investment driven by the power grid growing significantly, and home appliance production continuing to increase. The penetration of new energy is expected to strengthen copper demand in the automotive sector, and the decline in real - estate data has narrowed [1]. - Market data: The previous domestic futures closing price was 78,160 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 220 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 9,538 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was 21.65 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 193,975 tons, and the daily change was - 1,650 tons [2]. Zinc - Night - session zinc prices slightly rose. Concentrate processing fees have been rising recently. Domestic automobile production and sales are growing, infrastructure is steadily increasing, home appliances are performing well, and the decline in real - estate data has narrowed. The market expects a significant improvement in concentrate supply this year, and smelting supply may recover. The previous decline in zinc prices has partially digested the expected increase in production [1]. - Market data: The previous domestic futures closing price was 22,675 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 485 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 2,633 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 36.93 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 171,400 tons, and the daily change was - 1,525 tons [2]. Aluminum - The night - session Shanghai aluminum main contract fell 1.55%. Trump's tariff attitude has been inconsistent, and domestic monetary policy is becoming more relaxed. Alumina prices have declined again, and future supply and demand are expected to be loose. Currently, some manufacturers have low profits and are undergoing maintenance. For futures to decline further, a continued weakening of bauxite prices and the resumption of production by alumina manufacturers are needed. The operating rates of most aluminum processing sectors, except for aluminum cables, have slightly declined recently, and there is an expectation of a decrease in downstream orders. After the holiday, with the concentrated arrival of aluminum ingots, domestic social inventory may continue to increase [1]. - Market data: The previous domestic futures closing price was 19,580 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 10 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 2,427 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 28.01 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 407,575 tons, and the daily change was - 4,000 tons [2]. Nickel - The night - session Shanghai nickel main contract fell 0.35%. Nickel ore supply in Indonesia remains tight, leading to rising nickel ore prices, which are passed on to downstream enterprises. Indonesia's new tariff policy may increase local nickel product prices. Precursor manufacturers have concentrated procurement needs, and the inventory of nickel salt products is not high, with prices likely to rise moderately. Stainless steel demand is mediocre, and prices are mainly fluctuating and consolidating [1]. - Market data: The previous domestic futures closing price was 124,240 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 1,580 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 15,698 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 201.50 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 199,782 tons, and the daily change was - 300 tons [2]. Lead - Market data: The previous domestic futures closing price was 16,650 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 275 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 1,923 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 16.08 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 256,700 tons, and the daily change was - 4,800 tons [2]. Tin - Market data: The previous domestic futures closing price was 261,220 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 1,690 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 31,992 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 165.00 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 2,755 tons, and the daily change was 55 tons [2].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View The report presents the cross - market, cross - period, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data of non - ferrous metals (copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, tin) on May 6, 2025, including domestic and LME prices, price ratios, spreads, equilibrium price ratios, and theoretical spreads [1][3][4]. 3) Summary by Category Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On May 6, 2025, the domestic spot price was 77,930 with an LME price of 9,333 and a ratio of 8.32; the three - month domestic price was 76,830 with an LME price of 9,340 and a ratio of 8.30. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.32, with a loss of 118.83. The loss for spot export was 513.50 [1]. - **Zinc**: The domestic spot price was 22,910 with an LME price of 2,603 and a ratio of 8.80; the three - month domestic price was 22,195 with an LME price of 2,639 and a ratio of 6.38. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.80, with a loss of 4.26 [1]. - **Aluminum**: The domestic spot price was 20,070 with an LME price of 2,423 and a ratio of 8.28; the three - month domestic price was 19,840 with an LME price of 2,451 and a ratio of 8.15. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.83, with a loss of 1,352.12 [1]. - **Nickel**: The domestic spot price was 125,200 with an LME price of 15,376 and a ratio of 8.14. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.36, with a loss of 4,414.56 [1]. - **Lead**: The domestic spot price was 16,775 with an LME price of 1,961 and a ratio of 8.52; the three - month domestic price was 16,870 with an LME price of 1,972 and a ratio of 11.41. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 9.01, with a loss of 971.10 [3]. Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On May 6, 2025, the spreads for the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month relative to the spot month were - 230, - 620, - 950, and - 1210 respectively, while the theoretical spreads were 489, 877, 1273, and 1669 [4]. - **Zinc**: The spreads were - 225, - 470, - 600, and - 675; the theoretical spreads were 216, 339, 461, and 583 [4]. - **Aluminum**: The spreads were - 65, - 135, - 145, and - 210; the theoretical spreads were 211, 323, 435, and 547 [4]. - **Lead**: The spreads were 40, 70, 70, and 50; the theoretical spreads were 209, 314, 419, and 524 [4]. - **Nickel**: The spreads were 20, 180, 420, and 580 [4]. - **Tin**: The spread for 5 - 1 was - 490, and the theoretical spread was 5390 [4]. Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - The price ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc in Shanghai (three - continuous) were 3.46, 3.87, 4.55, 0.89, 1.18, and 0.76 respectively; in London (three - continuous) were 3.52, 3.80, 4.66, 0.93, 1.23, and 0.76 [5]. Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of the current - month and next - month contracts relative to the spot were - 485 and - 715, while the theoretical spreads were 212 and 610 [4]. - **Zinc**: The spreads were - 245 and - 470; the theoretical spreads were 64 and 197 [4]. - **Lead**: The spreads were 25 and 65; the theoretical spreads were 132 and 244 [5].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: Copper prices first declined and then rebounded. The short - term price has recovered to the level of February, with weakened industrial support. The rebound of the US dollar index will suppress copper price increases, and the futures price faces significant pressure at the 78,000 yuan level. Before the May Day holiday, the market may be cautious, and there is a risk of pre - holiday price drops [5]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices fluctuated downward in the morning and stabilized in the afternoon, with a continuous decline in intraday positions. The industry is in a situation of strong supply and demand. High profits keep the production capacity and operating rate of electrolytic aluminum plants at a high level, and strong downstream production supports the price. The futures price may face strong hedging pressure when it rises to the 20,000 yuan level. Before the May Day holiday, the market may be cautious, and there is a risk of pre - holiday price drops [6]. - **Nickel**: The main futures price dropped below 124,000 yuan in the morning and then stabilized. Overseas nickel ore supply is tight, and domestic port nickel ore inventories are at a low level compared to the same period in previous years. However, the slow destocking of downstream stainless steel and weak prices drag down the futures price. There is a divergence in domestic and overseas inventories, with domestic inventories decreasing and overseas inventories increasing. The short - term fundamentals are mixed, and the futures price has broken below the 125,000 yuan level, showing a downward trend [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: On April 28, the social inventory of electrolytic copper was 161,000 tons, a decrease of 21,200 tons compared to April 24 and 47,500 tons compared to April 21 [9]. - **Aluminum**: On April 28, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 649,000 tons, a decrease of 15,000 tons compared to April 24 and 27,000 tons compared to April 21 [10]. - **Nickel**: On April 28, for the Shanghai market's main reference contract of refined nickel (Ni 2505), the mainstream premium of Jinchuan electrolytic nickel was + 2350 yuan/ton with a price of 126,000 yuan/ton; Russian nickel was + 250 yuan/ton with a price of 123,900 yuan/ton; Norwegian nickel was + 2750 yuan/ton with a price of 126,400 yuan/ton; and nickel beans were - 900 yuan/ton with a price of 122,750 yuan/ton [11]. 3.2 Related Charts - **Copper**: Multiple charts are provided, including copper basis, copper monthly spread, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper, overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [12][17][20]. - **Aluminum**: Charts include aluminum basis, electrolytic aluminum domestic social inventory, alumina trend, electrolytic aluminum overseas exchange inventory, and alumina inventory [24][26][28]. - **Nickel**: Charts include nickel basis, nickel monthly spread, LME nickel trend, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [35][41][45].

Group 1 - The domestic non-ferrous metal market saw most prices increase, with international copper and Shanghai copper rising over 1% [1] - As of April 23, international copper futures rose by 1.14% to 69,250.00 CNY/ton, while Shanghai copper futures increased by 1.07% to 77,770.00 CNY/ton [1] - Carbonate lithium futures decreased by 0.73% to 67,700.00 CNY/ton, while Shanghai zinc futures rose by 0.79% to 22,420.00 CNY/ton [1] Group 2 - On April 23, the opening and closing prices for various non-ferrous metal futures were reported, with notable movements in aluminum, copper, and lithium [2] - The main contracts for aluminum opened at 2,806.00 CNY and closed at 2,820.00 CNY, while the main copper contracts opened at 77,290.00 CNY and closed at 76,950.00 CNY [2] - The main contract for lithium carbonate opened at 68,000.00 CNY and closed at 68,200.00 CNY [2] Group 3 - As of April 22, warehouse receipts for copper futures decreased by 6,098 tons to 46,693 tons, while aluminum receipts fell by 2,782 tons to 82,430 tons [3] - Zinc futures warehouse receipts decreased by 1,687 tons to 5,168 tons, and lead receipts fell by 810 tons to 42,746 tons [3] - Nickel futures warehouse receipts increased slightly by 64 tons to 25,384 tons, while carbonate lithium receipts rose by 940 contracts to 31,385 contracts [3] Group 4 - The basis data indicated that several commodities, including copper, zinc, aluminum, lead, nickel, industrial silicon, and carbonate lithium, experienced a "backwardation" phenomenon, where spot prices exceeded futures prices [3] - The basis for copper was reported at 351 CNY with a basis rate of 0.45%, while zinc had a basis of 335 CNY and a basis rate of 1.48% [4] - Industrial silicon had a significant basis of 1,415 CNY, reflecting a basis rate of 13.80% [5]