Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Bohai Leasing (000415.SZ) with a target price of 4.39 CNY, marking the first coverage of the stock [4]. Core Views - The company is focusing on its core aircraft leasing business after divesting its container leasing assets, which is expected to lead to a revaluation of its asset value [1][39]. - Bohai Leasing has become the second-largest aircraft leasing company globally, with a significant advantage in aircraft orders, primarily for A320NEO and Boeing 737MAX models, aligning with market trends [1][44]. - The ongoing supply-demand gap in the aircraft market is expected to maintain high aircraft values and rental rates, benefiting the company's financial performance [2][3]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Focus on Aircraft Leasing - Bohai Leasing announced plans to sell its container assets in May 2025, allowing it to concentrate on its aircraft leasing business [1]. - The company’s aircraft leasing revenue has been improving, with aircraft leasing and sales accounting for approximately 80% of total revenue [24]. - The company’s aircraft leasing gross margin has been steadily increasing, reaching 61.5% in 2024 [30]. Section 2: Order Aircraft Advantage - As of Q1 2025, Avolon, a subsidiary of Bohai Leasing, operates a fleet of 1,096 aircraft, making it the second-largest aircraft leasing company globally [44]. - The average age of the fleet has increased to 6.7 years, with a stable remaining lease term of around 6.7 years [40]. - The company has a high fleet utilization rate, achieving 100% in 2024, with all new aircraft deliveries for 2025 and 2026 already leased [50]. Section 3: Aircraft Supply-Demand Gap - Aircraft manufacturers are facing significant production constraints, leading to longer delivery times, with the average delivery time reaching a record 5.3 years in 2024 [70]. - The rental rates for new aircraft have surpassed pre-pandemic levels, driven by the ongoing supply-demand gap [77]. - The global aviation market continues to show growth, with international passenger demand improving significantly, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region [86].

Core Viewpoint - The AI Fund Huazhong State-Owned Enterprise Reform Theme Flexible Allocation Mixed A (001445) reported a profit of 9.371 million yuan in Q2 2025, with a net asset value growth rate of 2.77% for the period, indicating potential investment opportunities in state-owned enterprises under reform initiatives [2]. Fund Performance - As of July 18, the fund's unit net value was 2.722 yuan, with a three-month return of 8.32%, ranking 517 out of 880 comparable funds [3]. - The fund's six-month return was 2.95%, ranking 718 out of 880, and the one-year return was 4.37%, ranking 751 out of 880 [3]. - Over the past three years, the fund's return was -27.74%, ranking 735 out of 871 [3]. Risk Metrics - The fund's Sharpe ratio over the past three years was -0.3005, ranking 728 out of 875 [9]. - The maximum drawdown over the past three years was 37.88%, with the highest quarterly drawdown occurring in Q2 2023 at 17.38% [11]. Fund Holdings - As of June 30, the fund's average stock position over the past three years was 85.24%, compared to the industry average of 80.43% [14]. - The fund's top ten holdings as of Q2 2025 included China Pacific Insurance, Shanghai Bank, Agricultural Bank of China, Hangzhou Bank, Jiangsu Bank, Nanjing Bank, Jiangsu Financial Leasing, Fujian Expressway, Dongwu Securities, and China Gold International [20]. Fund Size - As of the end of Q2 2025, the fund's total size was 355 million yuan [16].

Group 1: Open Market Operations - The central bank announced a 7-day reverse repurchase operation on July 17, with a fixed rate and quantity tendering of 450.5 billion yuan, at an interest rate of 1.4%, with a total bid and winning amount of 450.5 billion yuan. The net injection for the day was calculated to be 360.5 billion yuan after accounting for 90 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing on the same day [1]. Group 2: Funding Conditions - The overall funding situation remains balanced, with the overnight pledged repo rate for deposit-taking institutions slightly declining to 1.46%. The 7-day pledged repo rate has decreased by less than 1 basis point, currently at 1.52%. In the U.S., the latest overnight financing rate stands at 4.37% [3]. Group 3: Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction rate for one-year interbank certificates of deposit among major banks is around 1.62%, showing little change from the previous day [6]. Group 4: Bond Market - The yields on major interbank bonds have shown mixed movements. The closing prices for government bond futures indicate a slight increase for most maturities, with the 10-year and 5-year contracts rising by 0.02%, while the 30-year contract fell by 0.02% [11]. Group 5: Government Bond Issuance - The Ministry of Finance plans to issue several government bonds on July 24, including a 30-year bond of 83 billion yuan, a new 1-year bond of 124 billion yuan, and a 5-year bond of 108 billion yuan [12]. Group 6: Climate Bonds - A report from the Climate Bonds Initiative indicates that Hong Kong's issuance of green, social, and sustainable development bonds, as well as sustainability-linked bonds, is expected to exceed 43.1 billion USD in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 43.2% and accounting for 45% of the Asian international GSS+ bond market [12]. Group 7: Corporate Developments - Postal Savings Bank has invested 10 billion yuan to establish China Post Investment, completing the AIC layout for the six major state-owned banks [17]. - China Construction Bank Financial Leasing plans to issue 2 billion yuan in financial bonds, with an option for an additional 500 million yuan in oversubscription [17]. - Longfor Group's main task for the second half of the year remains focused on inventory reduction [17].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The conference call primarily discusses the shipping and leasing industry, with a focus on companies such as **Shan Nan Transportation**, **Chuan Bo Heavy Industry**, and **Yangzijiang Shipbuilding**. It also touches on the broader **Hong Kong stock market** and **oil transportation**. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Merger of Chuan Bo Heavy Industry**: The approval of the merger between Chuan Bo Heavy Industry and another company is expected to be completed around September, which could significantly boost shareholder confidence and operational efficiency post-merger [1][4][5]. 2. **Increase in Shipbuilding Orders**: There has been a notable increase in shipbuilding orders and new ship prices since June, indicating a positive trend in the industry [2][3]. 3. **Stabilization of New Ship Prices**: Recent data shows that new ship prices have stabilized, with only a slight decrease of 0.01% recently, suggesting a potential upward trend in the future [3]. 4. **Impact of U.S.-China Trade Talks**: The ongoing U.S.-China trade negotiations may influence the shipping industry positively, with expectations of improved conditions [3][8]. 5. **Profit Margin Improvements Post-Merger**: The merger is anticipated to enhance profit margins due to better financial management and operational synergies [5][4]. 6. **Demand for Replacement Vessels**: There is a significant demand for replacing aging vessels, which is expected to drive future orders in the shipping sector [7][9]. 7. **Oil Transportation Outlook**: The increase in production by OPEC is expected to positively impact oil transportation, especially as demand rises in the Northern Hemisphere during the winter months [9][10]. 8. **Hong Kong Leasing Companies**: The conference highlighted the potential for recovery in Hong Kong leasing companies, particularly in aviation and shipping sectors, as market activity increases [11]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Market Dynamics**: The call emphasized the importance of understanding the cyclical nature of shipping and how macroeconomic factors, such as inflation and commodity prices, can affect shipping rates and demand [7][8]. 2. **Regional Shipping Trends**: The call noted that the demand for smaller vessels and regional shipping routes has increased due to changes in shipping alliances and operational strategies [6][8]. 3. **Local Economic Activity in Hong Kong**: There is a positive correlation between the activity in the Hong Kong stock market and local economic indicators, such as rental prices and public transport usage [11]. This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the shipping and leasing industry.

Performance Forecast - The company expects a net loss attributable to shareholders of between 1.8 billion and 2.4 billion yuan for the current reporting period, compared to a profit of 716.4 million yuan in the same period last year [1] - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is expected to be a loss of between 2.1 billion and 2.7 billion yuan, compared to a profit of 532.24 million yuan last year [1] - The basic earnings per share are projected to be a loss of between 0.2910 yuan and 0.3881 yuan, compared to earnings of 0.1158 yuan in the previous year [1] Reasons for Performance Change - The primary reason for the performance change is the signing of a share purchase agreement with Typewriter Ascend Ltd to sell 100% of Global Sea Containers Ltd (GSCL). The transaction price is below the net asset value of GSCL, indicating goodwill impairment [1] - The company anticipates needing to recognize a goodwill impairment provision of approximately 3.2 billion to 3.4 billion yuan, with the final amount to be disclosed in the 2025 semi-annual report [1] Aircraft Leasing Business - The aircraft market value, leasing rates, and renewal rates remain high due to sustained demand and limited production capacity from aircraft manufacturers [2] - The company completed the acquisition of 100% of Castlelake Aviation Limited and continues to optimize its aircraft asset structure, leading to improved yield levels in its aircraft leasing business [2]

渤海租赁（000415）公告，预计2025年上半年净利润亏损18亿元–24亿元。 ...

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The weighted average trading durations of mainstream bond varieties are approaching their peaks again. As of July 11, the weighted trading durations of urban investment bonds and industrial bonds are at 2.44 years and 3.77 years respectively, both at over 90% quantile levels since March 2021. Among commercial bank bonds, the weighted average trading durations of secondary capital bonds, bank perpetual bonds, and general commercial financial bonds are 4.16 years, 3.74 years, and 2.95 years respectively, with bank perpetual bonds at a relatively low historical level. Among other financial bonds, the durations of securities company bonds, securities subordinated bonds, insurance company bonds, and leasing company bonds are 1.43 years, 1.83 years, 3.56 years, and 1.20 years respectively, with securities company bonds and securities subordinated bonds at relatively low historical quantiles and insurance company bonds at a relatively high historical quantile [10]. - The coupon duration congestion index declined and then slightly increased. After reaching its highest value in March 2024, it dropped and this week decreased slightly compared to last week, currently at the 17.8% level since March 2021 [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 All - Variety Duration Overview - As of July 11, the weighted trading durations of urban investment bonds and industrial bonds are 2.44 years and 3.77 years respectively, both at over 90% quantile levels since March 2021. Among commercial bank bonds, the weighted average trading durations of secondary capital bonds, bank perpetual bonds, and general commercial financial bonds are 4.16 years, 3.74 years, and 2.95 years respectively. Among other financial bonds, the durations of securities company bonds, securities subordinated bonds, insurance company bonds, and leasing company bonds are 1.43 years, 1.83 years, 3.56 years, and 1.20 years respectively [2][10]. 3.2 Variety Microscope 3.2.1 Urban Investment Bonds - The weighted average trading duration hovers around 2.44 years. The durations of urban investment bonds in Guangdong prefecture - level cities and Hebei provincial - level are over 5 years, while the trading duration of Shanxi prefecture - level urban investment bonds has shortened to around 1.35 years. The historical quantiles of the durations of urban investment bonds in regions such as Jiangsu prefecture - level cities, Jiangsu district - level, Zhejiang prefecture - level cities, and Chongqing district - level have exceeded 90%. The durations of Hunan provincial - level and Henan prefecture - level urban investment bonds are approaching their highest levels since 2021 [3][16]. 3.2.2 Industrial Bonds - The weighted average trading duration has slightly lengthened compared to last week, generally around 3.77 years. The trading duration of the real - estate industry has shortened to 1.78 years, while that of the public utilities industry has lengthened to 4.62 years. The trading duration of the real - estate industry is at a relatively low historical quantile, while industries such as public utilities, transportation, pharmaceutical biology, commercial retail, and building materials are all at over 90% historical quantiles [3][21]. 3.2.3 Commercial Bank Bonds - The duration of general commercial financial bonds has shortened to 2.95 years, at the 99.1% historical quantile, higher than the level of the same period last year. The duration of secondary capital bonds has shortened to 4.16 years, at the 92.4% historical quantile, higher than the level of the same period last year. The duration of bank perpetual bonds has lengthened to 3.74 years, at the 68.3% historical quantile, higher than the level of the same period last year [3][23]. 3.2.4 Other Financial Bonds - In terms of the weighted average trading duration, insurance company bonds > securities subordinated bonds > securities company bonds > leasing company bonds, at 79%, 23%, 16%, and 68% historical quantiles respectively. The durations of insurance company bonds and securities subordinated bonds have slightly lengthened compared to last week [4][25].

Financing Progress - Avolon Holdings Limited plans to issue a total of $650 million in senior unsecured notes through its wholly-owned subsidiary Avolon Holdings Funding Limited, with a coupon rate of 4.900% and a maturity date of October 10, 2030 [1][2] - The proceeds from the notes will be used for general corporate purposes, including the repayment of future maturing debts [1] Financing Amount Utilization - As of the announcement date, Avolon has utilized $2.195 billion of its authorized loan limit of $10.5 billion for 2025, excluding the current financing amount [2] - The issuance of the senior unsecured notes will fall within the authorized loan limit for 2025, thus not requiring further approval from the board or shareholders [2] Guarantee Progress - Avolon and its subsidiaries will provide joint liability guarantees for the $650 million senior unsecured notes issuance [1][2] - The total guarantee amount provided by Avolon and its subsidiaries for their wholly-owned subsidiaries or SPVs will not exceed $10.5 billion for 2025 [4] Guarantee Amount Utilization - As of the announcement date, Avolon and its subsidiaries have utilized $2.195 billion of the authorized guarantee limit for 2025, excluding the current guarantee [4] - The cumulative guarantee amount provided by the company in the past 12 months is approximately ¥5.83 billion, with specific amounts detailed for various subsidiaries [5]

Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, Yuexiu Leasing achieved operating income of CNY 5.989 billion, a year-on-year increase of 39.00% [1] - Net profit reached CNY 1.632 billion, growing by 17.74% year-on-year [1] - The company distributed cash dividends totaling CNY 8.50 billion, with a cash dividend rate of 37.04% for 2024 [6] Group 2: Business Strategy - Yuexiu Leasing is focusing on a "financing leasing + new energy" dual-driven strategy, significantly enhancing its green transformation [1] - The company has invested CNY 23.402 billion in new energy projects in 2024, with a total installed capacity of household photovoltaic systems reaching 11.72 GW by the end of the year [2] - The company is exploring high-end equipment and emerging business areas to diversify its asset structure [1] Group 3: Green Energy Initiatives - The household photovoltaic installed capacity increased from 10.60 GW in June 2024 to 11.77 GW by June 2025, representing an approximate growth of 85% [2] - Electricity revenue from photovoltaic business reached CNY 3.069 billion, a remarkable year-on-year growth of 552% [2] - The company is enhancing operational efficiency and asset returns through standardized and systematic development of new energy products [3] Group 4: Investment Strategy - In the first half of 2025, the investment business saw significant returns by collaborating with leading companies in aerospace, automotive, integrated circuits, and artificial intelligence [5] - The company is actively exploring H-share IPOs and private placements to enhance performance stability [5] - A dual return mechanism of "defensive + growth" has been established through investments in high-dividend quality assets [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The supply of aircraft is slightly improving, with Boeing and Airbus delivering a total of 320 aircraft in 2Q25, up from 266 in 1Q25. The company delivered 13 aircraft in 2Q25, an increase from 11 in 1Q25, but sold 14 aircraft, resulting in a decrease in owned aircraft to 441 [1][2][3] - The company expects a core ROE of 10.6% for 2025, roughly in line with 10.5% in 2024, indicating stable performance despite potential challenges in the debt market due to fluctuating U.S. Treasury rates [1][4] Summary by Sections Supply Chain Improvement - The report highlights that the recovery of aircraft manufacturers' capacity is crucial for the company's performance. The increase in aircraft deliveries is expected to positively impact leasing rates and ROE if the trend continues [2] Fleet Management - In 2Q25, the company executed 75 transactions, including the delivery of 13 aircraft and the sale of 14 aircraft, leading to a net decrease in owned aircraft. The average age of sold aircraft was 10.4 years, which is higher than the overall fleet average of 5 years. The company maintains a strong order book with 351 aircraft on order [3] Financial Projections - The company forecasts a net profit of USD 702.62 million for 2025, with a slight decrease from 2024. The target price is set at HKD 82, based on a 1.06x 2025E PB ratio [5][10]