Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report's industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand pattern in 2025 remains in an oversupply situation. The container shipping volume growth rate in 2025 is expected to be 2.6%, lower than the shipping growth rate of 5.3% [4]. - The impact of the rush - shipping in the US line on the European line is limited. Currently, the transfer of US line capacity is not obvious, and subsequent capacity adjustments need to be monitored [5]. - The 06 and 08 contracts are traditional peak - season contracts for the European line, and the shipping companies have strong bargaining power and price - holding ability. The 10 - month contract faces uncertainties after the 90 - day buffer period, and it is a traditional off - season [6]. - In 2025, the freight rate of the European line is expected to show a downward trend, and this supply - demand imbalance may continue until 2026. Short - term freight rate fluctuations are affected by tariff policies and geopolitical disturbances in the Middle East [49]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Shipping Basics - **Shipping Market Introduction**: The shipping market is the cornerstone of global trade, accounting for over 90% of international cargo transportation. It can be divided into three main segments. In 2024, the global container trade volume reached 210 million TEU, accounting for 15.1% of the total global maritime trade volume. The container shipping volume of the Asia - Europe route accounts for 10.7% of the total container shipping volume [13][14]. - **Introduction to European Line Shipping Indexes**: The main China - Europe freight rate indexes include SCFI, SCFIS, CCFI, and the Baltic Freight Index (China - Europe). SCFI has a leading effect on SCFIS by about 2 weeks. CCFI changes more slowly than immediate freight rate indexes during rapid price increases or decreases [19][25]. - **Introduction to the Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures**: It was listed on the Shanghai International Energy Exchange in August 2023, with the underlying index being the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Rate Index (European Route). The trading unit is 50 yuan/point, and the contract delivery months are even - numbered months of the year [26]. 2. Analysis Logic - **Seasonality**: Usually, 7 - 8 months are the Christmas stocking period, and 12 - 1 months are the pre - Chinese New Year rush - shipping period, which are peak seasons. 3 - 4 months and around October are off - seasons. However, during the pandemic and the Red Sea crisis, there were anti - seasonal price increases [28][29]. - **Shipping Costs**: Taking a 20,000 - TEU container ship as an example, the main costs include depreciation, loan costs, fuel costs, and port fees. Focusing on variable costs, in an efficient operation scenario, the cost per standard container can be compressed to the range of $545 - 579, corresponding to an index below 800 points. Currently, the European line index is still well above this level [32][36]. - **Capacity Supply**: Container ship construction is mainly undertaken by China, Japan, and South Korea. In 2025, the global delivery volume is expected to be 232 ships/1.89 million TEU. The overall global capacity will be in an oversupply situation, and it is expected to ease after 2026 [37]. - **Geopolitics**: Since the Red Sea situation deteriorated, about 90% of ships on the Asia - Europe route have chosen to bypass the Cape of Good Hope, which increases the shipping cycle and costs and provides some price support for the European line [42]. - **European Economy and Tariff Impact on Demand**: The demand for the European line is mainly affected by the European economy. Economic indicators such as the consumer confidence index, PMI, and GDP can affect the freight volume and shipping company costs on the European line [46]. 3. Market Analysis - **Shipping Situation Before Tariff Negotiations**: After the US imposed reciprocal tariffs on April 2, China's exports to the US declined significantly. Shipping companies transferred some US line capacity to the European line, causing the shipping price to fall by over 40% in April [50]. - **Shipping Situation After Tariff Negotiations**: After the Sino - US Geneva Economic and Trade Talks Joint Statement took effect on May 12, the shipping capacity in June decreased slightly compared to the beginning of May. The main shipping companies on the European line significantly increased their quotes for late June, and the settlement price in June is expected to be between 1900 - 2000 points [54]. - **Impact of the Iran - Israel Conflict on Prices**: On June 13, the European line price rose due to the Iran - Israel conflict. The conflict led to a more than 10% increase in crude oil prices, which is expected to drive up the total cost of the European line by 4%. The continuous conflict may support the European line price in the long - term, but the sustainability of the price increase is questionable [55]. 4. Operation Suggestions - The 06 contract has entered the delivery month, and the final delivery price is expected to be around 1900 - 1950 points. The 7 - month market may see an increase in both supply and demand. The 8 - month contract has room for shipping companies to hold up prices. The 10 - month contract may be the lowest price of the year [57]. - It is recommended to short - allocate the 10 - month off - season contract on rallies. If the price difference between the 10 and 12 contracts further narrows, an arbitrage strategy can be implemented [57].

首席点评： 纵深推进全国统一大市场建设 铜： 夜盘铜价收涨。目前精矿加工费总体低位以及低铜价，考验冶炼产量。根据国家统计局数据来 看，国内下游需求总体稳定向好，电力行业延续正增长；汽车产销正增长；家电产量增速趋缓；地产持 续疲弱。多空因素交织，铜价可能区间波动。关注美国关税进展，以及美元、铜冶炼和家电产量等因素 变化。 美国 6 月 ADP 就业人数意外减少 3.3 万人，自 2023 年 3 月以来首次负增长，预期为增长 9.8 万人， 5 月份数据在向下修正后仅增加 2.9 万人。服务业就业在 6 月份减少 6.6 万个就业岗位，遭遇自疫情以来 的最大降幅。美国利率期货完全消化美联储 9 月降息预期。证监会党委召开扩大会议强调，要持续优化 股债融资、并购重组等资本市场机制安排，促进要素向最有潜力的领域高效集聚。牢记我国资本市场中 小投资者众多的最大市情，不断完善投资者保护制度体系。深入推进以"两创板"改革为抓手的新一轮全 面深化资本市场改革。全力抓好资本市场自主开放重点举措落地。始终把维护市场稳定作为监管工作首 要任务，推动健全常态化稳市机制安排，平稳有序防控债券违约、私募基金等领域风险。央行近日发文 明 ...

Group 1 - The digital economy has become a new engine for high-quality development in Shandong, with the digital economy's scale expected to exceed 49% of GDP by 2024 and over 35,000 high-tech enterprises established [1][2] - Shandong has launched 100 provincial-level key digital industry projects and established 10 key platform economy enterprises and 7 platform economy industrial clusters [1] - The integration of traditional industries with intelligent systems has significantly improved operational efficiency, with container handling efficiency increasing by 80% and intermodal transport efficiency by over 50% at Jining Longgong Port [2] Group 2 - The "Easy Run Win" platform has enabled companies like Zhongkun Agricultural Equipment to expand into international markets, with overseas orders expected to exceed 15% of total sales [3] - The platform integrates diverse data from over 180 countries, allowing businesses to identify potential customers effectively [3] - Shandong aims to implement actions to accelerate data value release, enhance digital economy quality, and improve digital government efficiency, targeting a total computing power of 12.5 EFLOPS and a digital economy share of over 50% of GDP [4]

Group 1 - BHP has signed a charter agreement with COSCO Shipping for two ammonia dual-fuel Newcastle-type bulk carriers [1] - The vessels are expected to be delivered in 2028 [1] - The primary purpose of the ships is to transport iron ore from Western Australia to Northeast Asia [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significance of seafarers in global trade and economic development, celebrating World Seafarers Day on June 25, and emphasizing the growth and diversification of the seafarer workforce in China. Group 1: Seafarer Workforce Growth - As of the end of 2024, the total number of registered seafarers in China is projected to reach 2.0358 million, representing a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, with the number of maritime seafarers at 970,100, up by 2.8% [3] - In 2024, 23,000 new students are entering maritime academies, contributing to the future workforce [3] - A total of 58,000 seafarers are undergoing training for job promotions, indicating an improvement in the social training system for seafarers [3] Group 2: Skills Development and Training - The seafarer skill training system in China is being optimized, focusing on green shipping and new technology applications [4] - The scale of training for specialized seafarers in the field of new energy vessels, such as battery-powered and dual-fuel ships, is expanding [4] - The implementation of training guidelines for battery-powered vessels is being actively promoted [4] Group 3: International Recognition and Contribution - Over 160,000 Chinese seafarers are expected to be dispatched abroad in 2024, with the number of countries and regions recognizing Chinese seafarer certificates increasing to 30 [5] - In 2024, seafarers serviced 167,000 domestic vessels, completing a cargo transport task of 9.8 billion tons and ensuring safe water travel for 260 million passengers [6] - Seafarers play an indispensable role in global economic development and trade, handling over 90% of international trade transportation [7]

Group 1: Geopolitical Tensions and Market Reactions - The Iranian parliament has decided to block the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for global oil transport, following a U.S. airstrike on Iranian nuclear facilities [1][3] - The U.S. military's operation involved 125 aircraft and targeted three major Iranian nuclear sites, escalating tensions in the region [1][3] - Brent crude oil prices surged by 8%, exceeding $96 per barrel, as traders anticipated a potential blockade of the Strait [3][5] Group 2: Impact on Global Energy Supply - Asian countries, particularly China, Japan, and South Korea, heavily rely on the Strait for oil imports, with China importing 5 million barrels daily, which constitutes half of its oil imports from the Middle East [3][5] - If the Strait is closed, these countries may have to rely on strategic oil reserves, significantly impacting their energy security [5] Group 3: Shipping and Insurance Costs - Major shipping companies, including Maersk, have initiated emergency plans, rerouting over 50 oil tankers around the Cape of Good Hope, increasing travel distance by 7,000 kilometers and shipping costs by 250% [5][7] - War insurance costs for tankers have skyrocketed, with additional millions required per vessel [5] Group 4: Economic Consequences and Predictions - If oil prices stabilize above $120 per barrel, a global recession similar to the 1973 oil crisis could occur, as warned by Deutsche Bank [11] - The automotive industry is particularly vulnerable, with European manufacturers predicting a reduction of 100,000 vehicles per day if the blockade lasts over two weeks [13] Group 5: Strategic Implications for Major Players - Russia stands to benefit significantly from rising oil prices, gaining an additional $300 million in revenue for every $10 increase in oil prices [8] - U.S. shale oil producers are also expected to profit, with a 12% increase in drilling activity reported in a week due to rising prices [8] Group 6: Military and Security Developments - The U.S. Fifth Fleet has entered a state of full readiness, while the Iranian Revolutionary Guard has deployed its navy, indicating a potential escalation in military conflict [13][15] - The situation in the Strait of Hormuz poses a risk of becoming a flashpoint for broader military conflict, with significant implications for global supply chains [9][15]

Core Insights - The article discusses the potential for a new "3 trillion" investment, focusing on the transition of demand towards the service sector as GDP per capita reaches between $10,000 and $30,000, while highlighting the current supply constraints in services and the investment gap that exists [4]. Group 1: Deep Dive Topics - The article emphasizes the need for investment in human capital to bridge the existing gaps in service supply and to facilitate the transition towards a service-oriented economy [4]. Group 2: Hot Topics - The article explores the contrasting expectations and realities of inflation in the U.S. post-tariff implementation, questioning whether inflation will resurge in the latter half of the year [8]. - It also discusses the significance of the "15th Five-Year Plan" as a critical period leading up to the 2035 vision, outlining potential focus areas for development [10]. - The article addresses geopolitical risks, specifically regarding Iran's decision to block the Strait of Hormuz, and evaluates the credibility of such threats and their potential market impacts [13]. Group 3: High-Frequency Tracking - Domestic shipping prices have been on the rise, indicating a recovery in port freight volumes despite overall weak infrastructure construction activity [15]. - In the U.S., recent bond auctions have performed better than expected, while retail sales data for May fell short of projections, indicating mixed economic signals [20].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Market participants are speculating on the peak time of freight rates, with attention on the quotes for the second half of July to be released next week [1] - The supply and demand in the US route have both increased, with supply recovering rapidly and freight rates in the East and West US dropping from their highs [2] - There is a possibility that the freight rates in the first half of July have already reached their peak, and the August contract is in a game over the specific peak - time [5] - The strategy suggests a sideways movement for the main contract and a long - December, short - October arbitrage [8] Summary by Directory 1. Futures Price - As of June 27, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index European route futures contracts was 90,944 lots, and the daily trading volume was 62,657 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2506, EC2508, EC2510, and EC2512 contracts were 1317.40, 1160.20, 1885.90, 1759.90, 1325.60, and 1489.10 respectively [7] - The estimated final delivery settlement price of SCFIS is between 1890 - 1911 points, and ship delays are expected to drag down the SCFIS on June 30 [4] 2. Spot Price - For the Shanghai - Rotterdam route, different alliances have different price quotes. For example, Maersk's price in the second week of July decreased compared to the previous period, and some alliances' prices for the second half of July are higher than the first half [1] - For the Shanghai - US East and West routes, the freight rates have dropped significantly. Maersk's Shanghai - Los Angeles price in the first half of July decreased from 4296/5360 in the first half of June to 1478/2110, and the Shanghai - New York price decreased from 6410 dollars/FEU to 4100 dollars/FEU [2] 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply - In July, the monthly average weekly capacity of the Shanghai - European base port route is 273,800 TEU, and in August, it is 269,900 TEU. There are 8 blank sailings in July [3] - As of June 20, 2025, 128 container ships have been delivered in 2025, with a total capacity of 1.018 million TEU. Among them, 38 ships of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU with a total capacity of 570,100 TEU and 6 ships of over 17,000 TEU with a total capacity of 142,400 TEU have been delivered [7] 4. Supply Chain - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has affected the oil price and shipping situation. The conflict between Israel and Iran has ended, and the risk of the Strait of Hormuz being closed has been basically eliminated, with a relatively small direct impact on container transportation [2][3] 5. Demand and European Economy - The demand for the China - US route has increased rapidly due to the reduction of Sino - US tariffs, and carriers are actively restoring capacity [2] - The relationship between the EU's industrial production index, import from China, consumer confidence index, retail sales, and China's export to the EU may affect the shipping demand [73 - 89]

Core Viewpoint - The announcement details the implementation of the 2024 stock option and restricted stock incentive plan by Fujian Haitong Development Co., Ltd, including the first unlock period for the restricted stocks and the conditions for their release [1][6][10]. Group 1: Incentive Plan Approval and Implementation - The stock option and restricted stock incentive plan was approved in the fourth meeting, with relevant proposals passed [1][2]. - The actual number of stock options granted was 6.635 million, and the number of restricted stocks granted was 7.715 million [2][3]. - The first unlock period for the restricted stocks will end on July 2, 2025, with a release ratio of 30% [6][10]. Group 2: Unlock Conditions and Performance Assessment - The conditions for unlocking the restricted stocks include no negative audit opinions and meeting specific performance targets, such as a revenue growth rate of at least 50% or a net profit growth rate of at least 35% for 2024 [9][10]. - If the company fails to meet the performance targets, the restricted stocks will not be released, and the company will repurchase them at the grant price plus interest [10] . Group 3: Stock Listing and Capital Structure Changes - The restricted stocks will be listed for trading on July 3, 2025, with a total of 2,212,500 shares available for trading [12]. - The capital structure will change as follows: limited sale shares will decrease by 2,212,500 to 649,854,992, while unrestricted shares will increase by the same amount to 275,526,296 [13]. Group 4: Legal Opinions - The legal opinion confirms that the necessary approvals and authorizations for the unlock of restricted stocks have been obtained, and the procedures comply with relevant regulations [13].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significance of seafarers in global trade and economic development, emphasizing their growing numbers and enhanced skills in response to new technologies and green shipping initiatives [1][6]. Group 1: Seafarer Statistics and Growth - As of the end of 2024, the total number of registered seafarers in China is projected to reach 2.0358 million, a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, with 970,100 being maritime seafarers, reflecting a 2.8% growth [1]. - In 2024, 23,000 new students are expected to enter maritime academies, while 58,000 seafarers will undergo training for job promotions, indicating a more comprehensive training system [1]. Group 2: Skills Development and Training - The seafarer skill training system in China will continue to optimize in 2024, focusing on green shipping and new technology applications, with an expanded scale for training specialized personnel in battery-powered and dual-fuel vessels [3][4]. - The introduction of guidelines for battery-powered vessel crew training and the promotion of order-based training for dual-fuel vessel crews are part of the ongoing efforts to enhance seafarer capabilities [3]. Group 3: International Recognition and Contributions - By the end of 2024, over 160,000 Chinese seafarers are expected to be deployed internationally, with agreements signed with countries like the UAE and Marshall Islands, increasing the number of countries recognizing Chinese seafarer certificates to 30 [4]. - Seafarers are responsible for servicing 167,000 domestic vessels and completing the transportation of 9.8 billion tons of cargo, ensuring the safe maritime travel of 260 million passengers [5]. Group 4: Economic Impact - Seafarers play an irreplaceable role in global economic development and trade, handling over 90% of international trade transportation and supporting various industries such as shipbuilding, deep-sea fishing, and marine scientific research [6].